Good Weather News: Recent Nationwide Tornado Shortage

Shelf cloud from a severe thunderstorm over Colchester, Vermont
in June, 2017. There are some occasional storm chances
in Vermont over the next week or two, starting this evening. 

Back in April, amid some deadly tornado outbreaks in the United States, I was warning that perhaps the worst was yet to come, given that May and June are the peak tornado months in the nation.

Turns out any forecast of a bunch of tornadoes was a thankful bust. Tornado activity in the U.S. in May and June was at or near record lows.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center tweeted that so far, they've only counted 50 tornadoes in June, the lowest number since 1952.

A few more tornadoes might be confirmed from June after more investigations, but the number will almost certainly be at a record low.

Only six tornado watches were issued in the U.S. during June, the least on record,  besting eight watches, the previous record low set just last year.  For May and June combined, there were only 16 tornado watches, easily breaking the record for least number of such alerts during the two months. The old record was 28 such watches in 2018.

Interestingly, one of tornado watches in May included parts of Vermont, an area we all know is decidedly not tornado alley. No tornado is known to have touched down in Vermont so far this year.

Overall, there were 4,044 reports of severe weather - thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes - in June, which is somewhat below the average of 4,940 for the month, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

We're past the peak of tornado season for sure, but of course tornadoes and severe weather can and do still occur in July and beyond.

If you for some reason you are a Vermonter who like severe thunderstorms, there's a very slight chance you'll be in luck later today.

A squirt of rather hot, humid air is making its way into the state today, which should prompt high temperatures in the 80s to locally around 90 degrees.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front is pressing south and southeastward from Quebec and there's a relatively fast flow of air developing overhead, coming down from the northwest.  This has the potential to help produce scattered thunderstorms, a couple of which might have strong to damaging gusty winds.

This is most likely in northern Vermont, but even there, the chances of any one place being hit by such a severe storm is on the low side. The Storm Prediction Center has northern New England and northern New York in a marginal risk zone for severe storms later today.

Marginal risk is the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms and means that there's a chance of isolated, localized severe weather.

We are getting into an interesting weather pattern that could bring us more rounds of scattered, gusty thunderstorms over the next week or more.

A dome of very hot air is setting up over the central United States and south-central Canada.

We here in Vermont will be on the eastern edge of this hot dome, which means we'll get periods of very warm, humid air.  At the same time, with the center of this "heat dome" to our west, the overall air flow will come from the northwest, riding down the front side of this high pressure ridge.

Such a northwest flow on the edge of a hot air mass, is a recipe for scattered, sometimes severe storms as little disturbances move southeastward in this airflow toward us.

It's hard to predict when or if any of these thunderstorms will develop any more than a day or two in advance. The storms also won't necessarily happen every day, and won't necessarily be all that widespread.

But while you're enjoying, or not enjoying the rather warm and sticky weather in the forecast for the next week or two, keep an eye out for thunderstorms, especially during afternoons and evenings

Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Mercifully Quiet, But..... Also, Another Vermont Heat Record

This map issued Tuesday shows where there are chances of
tropical storm development between now and September 5
Blue areas are the lowest chances. The warmer the colors,
the higher the chances. Dark red means there's a high
chance of some sort of tropical system. 

During most days in the past two weeks the National Hurricane Center home page has chirped that there were no tropical cyclones expected in the immediate future in the Atlantic Ocean.

That was welcome news after last year. We're now getting into the peak of hurricane season, and unlike last year's devastation, it's been pretty mellow in the Atlantic Ocean.

For so many days in late August, the National Hurricane Center Atlantic Ocean Tropical Outlook kept saying that no tropical activity was expected in the next day or two.

That's a marked contrast to last August, when all those super hurricanes, Harvey, Irma and Maria, were ongoing or about to rev up to cause extreme devastation. It's been a nice August in that respect.

Now, signs are emerging that the Atlantic is waking up, just in time for the true peak of the hurricane season. At this point, nobody is sure what will happen in the next month regarding tropical storms and hurricanes. It seems clear things are about to start forming, but whether they hit, where they hit, and how bad they will be if they do hit is totally an open question.

Computer models are hinting at a fair amount of activity. As Dr. Rick Knabb, the hurricane expert at the Weather Channel tweeted on Thursday: "When models start suggesting tropical cyclone many days in advance in multiple parts of the Atlantic basin, while they might not be right about exactly when and where, it does indicate that the atmosphere is changing and it's about to get busy overall in September."

Factors that were working against the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic are starting to wane.  Water temperatures in a broad area of the Atlantic where many destructive hurricanes form, off the west coast of Africa, had been cooler than normal.

Cooler water inhibits the development of tropical storms. By the way, water temperatures there were above normal last August in September, which partly explains why 2017 was such a destructive hurricane season.

In recent days, that water has warmed up to levels that are close to normal for this time of hear.

Additional, wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and other parts of the Atlantic was stronger than normal and are now subsiding to near normal levels for this time of year. Wind shear consists of strong upper level winds. These strong winds tear tropical storms and hurricanes apart, and prevent new ones from forming.

Strong wind shear is why Hurricane Lane, a dangerous hurricane, abruptly fell apart south of Hawaii last week. Those strong high level winds tore it to shreds.

A few areas are being watched in particular. The Gulf of Mexico over the past few days has been bubbling with numerous thunderstorms. That indicates the air is unstable over the Gulf, and that could, maybe produce a tropical storm.

A tropical wave, which is an area of thunderstorms that doesn't have any kind of real circulation, was over the Lesser Antilles Thursday. That would could develop as it heads to the west or northwest.

Finally, another tropical wave is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa. That is very likely to develop into a tropical storm and threaten the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic in the coming days.

We're lucky hurricanes weren't developing in July and August. The weather pattern that brought copious amounts of heat and humidity, plus drenching, flood producing rains along much of the East Coast, would have steered tropical storms right into this area, making the flooding exponentially worse than it was.

It's possible this dangerous weather pattern, which is still sort of, kinda in place, could really re-establish itself, which would put the East Coast in danger. This is purely speculation an NOT a forecast, so don't let me get you into a tizzy. I'll tell if and when it's time to panic. Better yet, the National Weather Service would tell you all this.

ANOTHER HEAT RECORD

Storm "damage" in my yard after a mid-afternoon storm Wednesday.
The storm dropped the temperature from 95 to 84 so I was grateful
for the relief, even though I'll have to remove these branches.

Burlington, Vermont hit another milestone in its record hot summer. The temperature there Wednesday reached 97 degrees, breaking the record high for the date set in 1977.

This would have been the hottest temperature in Burlington for so late in the season if not for a heat wave in September 2002 that brought a temperature of 98 to the Queen City.

Wednesday's  97 is also tied for the hottest temperature of the year in this hot summer.

Other record highs on Wednesday included 95 degrees in Plattsburgh, New York and 76 degrees top Mount Mansfield, Vermont.

There were only a handful of reports of minor damage from borderline severe thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening. There reports of trees down near Chazy, New York and in Essex County, Vermont.

An isolated storm at midafternoon came over my place in St. Albans. We went from sun to stormy gusts in the 45 mph range and then sun once again within 10 minutes.  A dead tree fell onto my yard causing no damage. A few small branches came down in St. Albans and Fairfield. No biggie.

If you stepped outside the this morning, you'll notice how refreshingly cool it is. Today and tomorrow will easily be the "coldest" two day stretch of this August. Highs today will only be in the low 70s, and tonight will get down into the 40s, with low 50s closer to Lake Champlain.

Friday looks great, too, with continued low humidity and high temperatures in the 70s. By the way, such weather is normal for this time of year. August, 2018 will definitely go down as the hottest on record.

Enjoy while you can, because the warmth and humidity will return by Sunday and continue into at least the first part of next week. Although it won't be as hot as it's been recently, the humidity will surely be uncomfortable.