Snowstorm On Track To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas, Especially Mountains

Once again, here's that ever-present snow forecast map from
the National Weather Service in South Burlington, VT.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.
Yellow areas are forecast to get at least six inches of new snow.
The darkest shades of orange and red could see a foot.
As always, this forecast is subject to change. 

It's been a fairly mild morning around much of Vermont. Here in St. Albans, Vermont it's been in the low 40s, the smell of mud and boiling maple sap is in the air.

Spring, right?

Not so fast. Yesterday, when I said there's a snowy interruption to spring, I meant it, and that forecast hasn't changed. Most of us should get ready for at least some snow between tonight and Saturday afternoon.

Some of us, especially if you're in the higher elevations, could get lots of it.

I'll go over expected amounts in a bit, but do understand there's an extremely high bust potential here. Temperatures through much of the storm, especially tonight and through the day Friday, will be marginal enough where it could go either way between rain and snow.

That means for most of Vermont outside the higher elevations, if it's just one to three degrees cooler than expected, we'll get a lot more snow than forecast. If it's a couple degrees warmer than forecast, there will be less snow.

On top of that, the second half of the storm will feature a windflow that will bring heavier snow to the western slopes of Green Mountains, the summits and a good part of the rest of northern Vermont north of Route 2, away from Lake Champlain and other deeper valley floors.

The end result will be a wide range of snow totals from this storm in Vermont, New York and New Hampshire. Here's the current thinking, with an enormous assist from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

For instance, we can probably expect anywhere from one to 20 inches of new snow, depending upon where you are in Vermont. OK, we should narrow that down.

The least amount of snow looks like it will be in the lower Connecticut River Valley below White River Junction. There, it will probably be two inches or less.

Almost everywhere else is a wildcard. If things go according to plan - and chances are they won't - the Champlain Valley and the lowlands of Rutland and Bennington Counties will get off with only maybe three inches of snow, give or take. (Again, a couple degrees colder and these areas get into the snowstorm game.)

The northern Champlain Valley, say around St. Albans, and north-central Vermont, say around Montpelier, Barre and Northfield are a real tossup. These communities might get as little as three inches of snow or as much as 10 inches.

In fact, different elevations in the same town will have wildly varying amounts of snow. I can see a possible scenario out of this where, for instance, St. Albans gets an inch of snow on the shore of St. Albans Bay and eight inches atop St. Albans Hill. That's a change in elevation of only about 800 feet.

The mountains, of course, will have mostly snow out of this. Some of the ski areas in central and northern Vermont could easily get a foot or more of snow.  The ski areas look like they will stay open a while longer, huh?

The Adirondacks will make out like a bandit with this storm, too. The way it looks now, many areas getting a solid foot of snow from this storm. Central New York could get six inches of wet snow, too. Coastal areas will get a quick bout of heavy rain. It was already raining hard in places like New Jersey this morning from this storm, and flood watches are up for that neck of the woods.

Back here in Vermont, the bulk of the snow will come down while temperatures are not far from 32 degrees. That means the snow will be wet and heavy.  That, combined with the fact winds will become strong from the northwest later Friday night and Saturday, raises the risk of power failures.

The snow will taper off Saturday, starting in southern valleys in the early morning and reaching the northern mountains by nightfall or thereabouts. It will be quite wintry Saturday, with snow showers for many areas, blowing snow and temperatures staying near or below freezing.

After a seasonable day Sunday (40s), it will get wintry cold again early next week with maybe an inch or two of new snow in spots Sunday night and Monday with the cold front. It might start to warm up again late next week. (I'll believe it when I see it.)

There does seem to be an increased risk of spring flooding in and around Vermont with this situation. True, there's not much snow left in the valleys, at least before this upcoming storm, but that's deceptive.

The snow is one to two feet deep in the mid-elevations. For example, Greensboro had 24 inches on the ground this morning and Waterbury had 20 inches. The amount of water locked in this snow is higher than you'd expect, with perhaps the equivalent of four to eight inches of rain. 

Go up in elevation just a bit further to 3,000 feet or so and there's the equivalent of 10 inches of rain that has to run down from the mountains. This storm will add to these totals, for sure.

The spring thaw is delayed further by the cold early next week. In a little more than a week, we'll be in to the very end of March and April will dawn. By then, there's the risk it could get quite warm. There could also be a nice big rain storm, who knows? If that happens, flooding would be a serious threat around the Green Mountain State.

That's by no means guaranteed, but it's something to watch.