Here We Go Again: More Vermont Winter Weather

This morning's take from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
as to how much snow they think will fall tomorrow. Central and northeastern
Vermont seem to be in for the most. Expect this map to change,
as it's a tricky storm forecast.

Skiers and other winter sports fans will be happy, people holding out a slim hope ot finish fall chores will not:  Another bout of stormy winter weather is about to hit Vermont.

It's been an nearly unrelenting, remarkably early winter, and the next episode consists of a very hard to forecast storm expected to hit Vermont Sunday.

When forecasters looked at the situation on Friday, it seemed the storm would go far enough to the south such that only the southeastern half of Vermont would be affected and even then, most places would come out with not too much snow.

This morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says overnight guidance has shifted everything to the north and west.  That means it appears even the northwest corner of Vermont will probably get a least a little bit of snow and schmutz.

At this point, a good chunk of central and northeastern Vermont will get the worst of it. These areas are now under a winter storm watch for most of the day Sunday.  In those spots, predictions call for four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow, possibly mixed with some icing.  That winter storm  also extends into  northern New Hampshire and western Maine.

Most winter storms in New England are hard to predict and never come out exactly the way meteorologists predict.   Sunday's storm has an even higher bust potential than most storms.

There's a lot of things that can screw up the current forecast, so take any prediction with a bit of a grain of road salt. First of all, temperatures through a pretty thick layer of the atmosphere from the surface to a few thousand feet overhead look like they're going to be right near 32 degrees for most of the storm and in most of Vermont.

Freezing rain or even a bit of plain rain could mix in especially in the valleys of southern Vermont, perhaps from very roughly Route 4 south. NWS Burlington thinks the heaviest snow will come down along the spine and east slopes of the Green Mountains from about Killlington north.

The snow is likely to be wet and heavy, which raises the fear of more power outages where the snow comes down the hardest late Sunday morning and afternoon.

The Champlain Valley is a wild card with this storm. Earliest guesses call for one to four inches of wet snow in that area.  However, if the storm keeps trending even a bit further northwestward, we could get a lot more. Or, if the temperature is a degree or two warmer than expected, rain might mix in.

Computer models still have not settled on a precise storm track, either.  It could go a little more to the north and west, causing more snow up north, or bringing in more warm air to change some areas to rain or freezing rain. Or, we could go back toward Friday's scenario, which would have far northwestern sections escape most of this.  So yeah, it's iffy.

The bottom line is to expect some lousy weather nearly statewide Sunday. Lousy, that is, unless you're into skiing or riding, because many of the ski resorts seem to be in for another installment of snow.

Wet snow is especially slippery to drive on, so you might want to consider postponing travel on Sunday, or taking off today instead.

And remember, I almost guarantee the storm won't play out exactly how I laid it out in this post.  This just gives you a general idea of where this is going.  There will be changes and surprises with this one.

There's no rest for the weary. Another storm will come along for the big travel day on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. At this point, it looks like that one will be mostly rain locally, but you never know.

Much colder air and snow showers will arrive Wednesday night and Thanksgiving, so I'm sure there will be some travel issues during that time frame, too.

Vermont's First Winter Storm Watch Of Season

Early forecast call for a pretty big early seasons snowfall Monday afternoon
into Tuesday.  Widespread areas could get six inches or more
(yellow and orange shaded areas of map.)

It's a little early in the season for this, but a winter storm watch is up for much of northern Vermont and northern New York for what looks to become a pretty good sized snowstorm for the season.

Current forecasts call for five to eight inches of new snow from through the Adirondacks and the  northwestern third of Vermont.  Some higher elevations could see a foot of snow.

Those are the areas where the best combination of cold air and lift in the atmosphere.  Further south, the conditions won't be as perfect for snow, and there might be a mix of precipitation as it will be a little warmer there.

Here's the usual caveat: There's still a chance the forecast could be a bust, or at least, the highest snow totals could be in a slightly different place than now predicted. With every storm, computer models change and meteorologists are constantly refining forecasts to fit current reality.

The snow should start Monday afternoon, really pick up Monday night and taper off on Tuesday.  The snow will stick around for a long time, especially for November. It will stay very cold through at least next Saturday, after today's mini-thaw.  The only other brief thawing I see is on Friday, but that won't amount to much or last long.

Today's is just a mini update here.  I'll get into more details Monday morning as the winter storm gets underway.

So Far, Looking Like Sunday Night Storm No Biggie In Vermont, But....

The now famous National Weather Service snow prediction map
is currently showing a modest snowfall Sunday night and
Monday. Definitely subject to change either up or down.

Winter storm watches are up in the Northeast from Pennsylvania to Maine as that region gets ready for a winter storm Sunday night and Monday.

Conspicuously outside the winter storm watch zone is the entire state of Vermont. That watch makes it to the New Hampshire border with southeastern Vermont, but that's it. So far at least.

While things could still easily change, the fast moving snowstorm expected in New England later Sunday continues to look like it will just sideswipe Vermont at best.

There's still a decent chance a band of moderate snow will push into the southern third of the state Sunday night. Overall, initial forecasts from the National Weather Service in South Burlington show a northwest to southeast gradient in snow accumulations across the state.

The early guess is it will range from around two inches near St. Albans to seven inches down by Brattleboro.

That said, there's still a high bust potential with this forecast, so expect adjustments before the event, if you can call it that, arrives. Bottom line: Expect to encounter snow when you drive to work Monday morning, so you'll have to deal with that.

Whatever happens, this storm will race by, so even if it comes closer to us and gives us more snow than expected, it won't have time to drop epic amounts of snow. The vast majority of forecasters don't expect anyone in New England, even in the heart of the winter storm watch one, to get more than a foot of snow, and even that's pushing it.

It still looks like we'll have a week of hard-core winter left to go next week. Forecasts are staying very consistent for a cold stretch of highs in the 15 to 20 degree range and lows either side of zero Tuesday through Friday.

If you want a bright side, it's that like pretty much every Arctic outbreak since late January, this one will enter the United States via the northern Plains and western Great Lakes. Those areas can expect to see record cold over the next few days.

The early March sun will sort of, kinda "warm" the air as it heads east towards us. Which means it will get very cold for this time of year in Vermont, but we almost certainly won't see any record lows.

There will be little weather disturbances mixed in with this cold northwest flow, so there will be a few  episodes of snow showers next week, mostly in the mountains. Accumulations won't amount to much.

The best guess is a start of a slow warm up will start next Friday afternoon, but even then it will be quite a bit chillier than normal. The next shot at a storm is a week from today but nobody knows yet if that will materialize, and if so, what it will do.

It's still looking like we have some nice potential for some March thawing, and maple sap runs starting in a little over a week from now.

ANOTHER Vermont Winter Storm Coming. Maybe Lots Of Snow, But......

Here's our now very famililar storm prediction map from the National
Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont. For the storm
Tuesday and Wednesday, the most snow would be north and west,
where you see the darker orange coloring. There, a foot
could easily accumulate by Wednesday. 

In case you haven't heard, we here in Vermont are under yet another winter storm watch.  It covers all of the state and northern New York, and I'm sure it will expand to other areas of the Northeast.

The trouble starts Tuesday afternoon and lasts into Wednesday morning. At this point, it looks like it will be mostly snow, but sleet and/or freezing rain could work in, especially south.

Plus, this is one of those weird storms that could create more sleet and freezing rain than expected, even north. I'll touch on that in a bit.

The storm in question will start out as another one that heads by to our west, like many have done so far this winter.

A storm going by to our west usually means snow changing to ice, then rain. But there are major differences with this storm that looks like it will steer things more to the snow category.

The intitial storm heading toward the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday will start us off with a big surge of moisture coming from the south. Meanwhile, there will be a cold high pressure area over Quebec. The surge of moisture will hit that cold air, glide over it and give us a good thump of snow Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Which means you should plan ahead. Like last Wednesday, the timing of the onset looks awful for Vermont's Tuesday evening commute. At least this will be snow, which isn't as bad as the freezing rain we had the last time.

As this main storm starts going by to our west, a new storm will develop somewhere along the New Jersey shore and head into coastal New England. This would shut off the northward push of warm air and keep at least northern Vermont all snow.

Southern and to a lesser extent central Vermont would get a period of freezing rain and sleet under this scenario, but there would be a fair amount of snow, too.

Current forecasts call for roughly a foot of new snow in central and northern Vermont and northern New York. It would be closer to eight or ten inches further south because of the possible sleet. As always, these forecasts are subject to change.

Actually, this is where I get nervous, though, because a big question mark is how early and how fast the coastal storm starts to take over. If it comes into being a little faster and stronger than currently forecast, even southern Vermont would stay mostly snow.

However, I have seen on a number of occasions in this type of scenario that the coastal low gets going more sluggishly than forecast. If that were the case, freezing rain and sleet could make it all the way to the Canadian border Tuesday night.

Right now, it does look like things will move fast enough to keep the north mostly or exclusively snow, but I want to put that ice risk out there because it could happen.   As noted, there will be adjustments to the forecast.

The bulk of the storm will come through Tuesday night and taper off during the day Thursday. This will be a fairly warm storm, unlike that subzero snowstorm we had in mid-January. Temperatures will stay up in the 20s Tuesday night during the heaviest snow, and pop into the low 30s Wednesday.

That means when they're trying to clear the roads Wednesday, salt will be a help.

By the way, a lot of freezing rain and sleet will set up somewhere with this storm. At this point, a widespread area of ice looks to form with this storm. It'll start in Illinois and Michigan Tuesday, and spread across Pennsylvania, central and southern New York, parts of New Jersey and a lot of southern New England by Tuesday night.

Some areas could get enough freezing rain to down trees and power lines. The ice will certainly create a widespread area of nearly impossible driving conditions, plus a ton of flight delays. Keep this in mind if you have travel plans this week

Yet another messy storm looks to be in the cards Friday and Saturday. That one at this point looks more like an ice and rain type thing for us Vermonters, but there's time for the forecast to change.

We'll take one storm at a time and deal with the Friday and Saturday thing later.

Here We Go Again: Winter Storm Watch Up For Vermont

Here's that familiar snow forecast map we've seen so much of
this winter. This new storm Tuesday into Wednesday is forecast
give most of us 6 to 12 inches of new snow.

It's certainly been a back and forth kind of winter here in Vermont. We get a bunch of snow. Then a lot of it melts. Then it all comes back. Melts again. Rinse and repeat.

Obviously, a fair amount of snow remained after last Thursday's rain, thaw, ice jams and general ugliness.  We got some replacement snow yesterday, as one to four inches of snow, some of it in squalls, dumped on us Vermonters.

Now, this morning, once again, we find ourselves under another winter storm watch.  It looks like another six to 10 inches of powder will come down on us, mostly Tuesday night.

The meteorologists and weather geeks have been watching a storm in the Midwest that's been bringing heavy snows and blizzard conditions to areas from the Dakotas to Michigan. This storm is the leading edge of that Arctic blast that's been hyped up for a week now.

That Arctic blast is still expected to bring very dangerous 40 to 60 below wind chills to the upper Midwest this week with actual temperatures in many areas out there near the record low territory. Lows will be as chilly as the 40s below in northern Minnesota.

Not to be cavalier, but that's their problem. That storm in the Midwest will keep chugging east and wind up somewhere in western New York or southern Ontario by Tuesday evening. By then, light snow will have spread over our region.

The storm over Ontario will move northeast and fade, while a new storm blossoms somewhere near New Jersey and heads northeastward along the New England coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The seeds of this coastal storm are prompting winter storm watches and warnings for the Deep South, places like Mississppi, Alabama and Georgia, where one to three inches of snow is expected tonight and tomorrow.

A snow squall sharply reducing visibility in St. Albans, Vermont Sunday

Tuesday night is when most of the snow will come down around here.  The steady snow will shut off pretty quickly during the day Wednesday, though light snow showers and flurries will continue, possibly into Thursday.

The snow this time is no blockbuster, and will certainly be smaller than the dump we got a little over a week ago.  

The general consensus is most of us will received six to 10 inches of snow, with maybe a little more than that in southern Vermont a perhaps a tad less in far northern New York.

An exception to this forecast is the western and central Adirondacks of New York. Lake effect snow will keep cranking into Wednesday, so storm totals there will be more like 12 to 18 inches.

We don't have much on the ground to show for it, given the thaws between the cold snaps this month, but this January in Burlington is among the snowiest on record. The city has already gotten 34.2 inches of snow this month. Even if not another snowflake falls through the end of the month, it will still be the seventh snowiest on record.

The upcoming storm will not be enough to make January the snowiest first month of the year. That honor goes to January,  2010, when 48.4 inches of snow fell on Burlington.

That Arctic blast from the Midwest will come in on the heels of the storm, but I will call it a semi-blast by the time it gets to Vermont.  From Wednesday night on through Saturday morning, we'll have subzero overnights - but only in the "meh" range -- 5 to 15 below. We can handle that if we dress the part.

Daytime highs only in the single numbers and teens.

Next - and a lot of you are going to hate this -- there are signs the up and down roller coaster will continue. It appears it will start to warm up dramatically next Sunday, with a decent chance of yet another mix to rain episode of a storm toward next Monday and Tuesday.

That long range forecast could change, but it would certainly fit the pattern of this up-and-down, active winter.

Quick Thursday Evening Storm Forecast Update

Just because forecast storm totals are starting to emerge for the storm we're getting here in Vermont this weekend, I thought I'd just give you a quick Thursday evening update, with a better followup Friday morning.

The forecast is pretty similar to the preliminary stuff we saw this morning, with the heaviest accumulation in southern and central Vermont. The sleet and freezing rain will stay south of Vermont, but will be real problem in far southern New England to New Jersey.

As you can see by the map in this post, a lot of us in Vermont will get at least a foot of snow out of this. That amount of snow is least likely in the northwestern tip of the state and most likely south and central Vermont. In fact, it looks like pretty much everybody south of a Colchester to Richford line are in for a foot of snow or more.

Some high elevations in the southern Green Mountains will get a foot.

Do note, and this is important, don't take this forecast as gospel. There will be adjustments to the forecast as meteorologists continue to get a better handle on the track and intensity of the storm as it approaches.

As noted this morning, this will be a very cold storm, with high temperatures staying in the single digits north to teens south Saturday and Sunday. Strong winds will cause lots of blowing and drifting snow, especially Sunday afternoon and night. Temperatures will plunge during that time period.

Snow should start in the late afternoon or evening Saturday and continue through Sunday. The heaviest snow, with rates of one to two inches per hour, will come down roughly between 1 a.m. and noon Sunday.

Winter Storm Watch Up For Vermont, Most Of Rest Of New England

Does this look enticing to you, winter sports fans?
Mount Mansfield and other areas of the Green Mountains
in Vermont might get a LOT of snow this week.

I told you so.

Back during that record late February heat, when pretty much all the snow disappeared from Vermont, when winter sports enthuiasts mourned, I said you'd get at least some of your snow back, that winter wasn't over.

I was right. I told you so.

First off, central and southern Vermont mountains got up to half a foot of snow, locally more, from that big nor'easter Friday.

Then that big nor'easter helped give us a parting gift yesterday and last night. Moisture coming in from that nor'easter way, way off the coast dropped a few more inches of snow on much of the area. Even valleys, where two inch totals were pretty widespread in the Champlain Valley.

Now we're under a winter storm watch here in the Green Mountain State. 

A watch, of course means maybe. We're not definitely going to get a big dump of snow, but signs point to that idea. And it's still looking like the mountains, the ski areas, will get the most out of this.

Computer models are staying consistent. That storm producing a blizzard out in the Dakotas today will trudge eastward, then transfer its energy to the coast somewhere near the Carolinas. That will spin up yet another nor'easter that will head toward New England.

It's still pretty early to pin down how much snow will fall, but it appears there will be two phases to this storm. The winter storm watch covers the first phase, Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

Preliminary indications are that snowfall will range from three or four inches near Lake Champlain to anywhere from six to close to a foot of snow from the spine of the Green Mountains east. (Remember, this is preliminary, the forecast could easily change.)

By the way, in the warmer valleys, precipitation might start off as rain or a mix of rain and snow Wednesday afternoon before changing to all snow.

For instance, the European weather computer model takes the storm further east, which would cut down on snow accumulations in Vermont. However, lately the European has been taking East Coast storms further east than they actually track.

Then we get into Phase II. The weather pattern is still blocked up, so things are moving slowly. It still looks like this nor'easter will only slowly move north off the Maine coast into the Canadian Maritimes later Thursday, through Friday and into Saturday.

This sets up a long period in which moisture gets wrapped around the storm, comes in from the north and west. The wind going up and over the Green Mountains wrings out a lot of the moisture in this type of scenario, and that could lead to spectacular storm totals in the central and northern Green Mountains. No promises, but perhaps two feet of new snow on the northern Vermont ski areas between Wednesday and Saturday?

This type of air flow Thursday and Friday can funnel down the Champlain Valley, too. The mountains   on either side of the valley squeeze the air together, which means it has nowhere to go but up. Rising air wrings out moisture. That means it might keep snowing through Friday in the Champlain Valley, albeit not as heavily as in the mountains. (And during the day Friday, the snow could mix with rain in the warm spots.)

This will probably be a rather wet snow throughout, especially in the lower elevations, so some of us might feel like we're shoveling wet cement when we're clearing the (possible!) accumulations Thursday and Friday.

Whether or not this storm pans out, skies will probably partially clear next weekend, and it will stay relatively mild, so you skiers and riders who hated all that February heat can enjoy.

We hope, anyway.

This potential winter storm isn't all fun and games, of course. Travel will be difficult during the snow. And southern and especially coastal New England might really be screwed.

This upcoming nor'easter is unlikely to be nearly as strong as the one that blasted the East Coast Friday and Saturday. It's also unclear where the rain/snow line will set up in southern New England.

Areas of southern New England that end up with snow will get wet and heavy stuff, which would break trees and power lines already weakened by the blast from the last nor'easter.

The winds and waves and storm surge from the upcoming storm won't be nearly as bad as the last storm. But the storm Friday and Saturday eroded away dunes, there's breaches in the dunes and damaged sea walls and there's lots of general damage from those storm surges.

Even weaker surges and waves from the upcoming storm could easily make things down there even worse.

Winter Storm Watch In Vermont, Surrounding Areas Wednesday

Here's an early take on expected snowfall Wednesday in
  Vermont. The National Weather Service in South
Burlington is telling us to expect generally 6-11 inches of
snow midweek. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has issued a winter storm watch for the entire state on Wednesday.   

This is a move I expected, as forecasts have been consistent for a mid-sized snowstorm then.

At this point, it's looking like the most snow will fall in southern and central Vermont, with slightly lesser amounts as you head north.  Current forecasts bring eight to 11 inches of new snow to areas of Vermont south of Route 2, and six or seven inches north of that line.

It's tough to pick out who will get the absolute most snow out of this, but a likely suspect is the high elevations of eastern Rutland and Windsor counties, towns, like Ludlow, Cavendish, Mount Holly and Shrewsbury.

Those are the very same towns that got the most snow from Sunday's storm, so winter sports enthusiasts there are loving life. People who have to shovel their driveways in those communities, not so much.

Since the storm causing this likely snow is moving fast, this will be a quick hit. The winter storm warning is in effect from 8 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday, a relatively short time to be under such an alert.

The bulk of the snow looks like it will come down across Vermont between roughly noon and 9 p.m. Wednesday. Snowfall rates during that time could be around one inch per hour, which is pretty heavy.

On the bright side, the snow will be somewhat powdery, so I wouldn't worry too much about power failures. The evening commute on Wednesday definitely looks tricky, though.  Bottom line: This storm won't be a blockbuster. It will be an average sized snowfall for Vermont, but you still want to take it seriously.

By the way, the winter storm watch covers a pretty wide area. It includes northern Pennsylvania, all but far western and northwestern New York, all of New Hampshire, all but far northern Maine and parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Separate, smaller storms will probably bring lighter accumulations - generally around an inch, two at most, tomorrow morning and again Friday and Friday night.

A larger storm seems to be shaping up for around Sunday. Early indications are that one will feature a bunch of mixed precipitation, but don't hang your hat on that just yet. It's much too soon to predict with any precision what will happen five or six days from now.

Let's just get through Wednesday's snowfall first.

One more point: Here's an example of how long range forecasts don't always work out as planned, even when they get the general gist of things right. I mentioned this before, but a week or more ago, many of the long range forecasts indicated it might be brutally cold around these parts starting now and continuing through this week.

The basis of that forecast was the expected position of the polar vortex over central Canada. Indeed, that polar vortex has set up pretty much right where those long range forecasts said it would. But, the core of the disgustingly frigid air is staying up there in Canada.

Here in Vermont, it will only be seasonably cold. High temperatures each day through next weekend will be for the most part in the 15 to 30 degree range, with lows in the 0 to 15 above range. Pretty normal for the first half of February.

Saturday Evening Storm Update: Stay Off Roads This Evening; New Storm To Sock Us Christmas Day

Here's an initial forecast for the amount of snow expected on
Christmas Day - this from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington. At this point, it looks like most of Vermont
is in for six or seven inches of snow on Christmas.

As of 4:30 p.m. Saturday, rain and freezing rain in the northern Champlain Valley of New York and Vermont had changed to snow, and this changeover was working its way steadily south and east and will encompass most of the state through this evening.

By the way, that light predicted Christmas snowfall I was talking about this morning ain't so light anymore. There's a winter storm watch out for the region on Christmas Day for what now appears will be a mid-sized storm. More on that in a bit.

First, let's get through what happened today and what's happening this evening. Gawd, it was an awful day weatherwise through northern New York, the northern two-thirds of New England and southern Ontario and Quebec.

There was lots of freezing rain for most or all of the day, especially in parts of northern New York, eastern and central Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and a good chunks of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

As expected, the Connecticut River Valley in Vermont was included in the zone that really got socked by the freezing rain. As of 5 p.m. Saturday, more than 5,000 homes and businesses were without power from just south of St. Johnsbury all the way down to the Brattleboro area.

Even in places that got a cold, but ostensibly non-freezing rain today, like the central and southern Champlain Valley of Vermont, the ground was chilly enough that even though the air temperature was something like 35 degrees, the rain froze on roads, sidewalks, parking lots and the like. It was nasty.

There were tons of car accidents and crashes, road closures and the like throughout the region,  As expected, enough freezing rain fell on parts of New Hampshire an Maine that there were some issues with tree branches and power lines failing under the weight of the accumulated ice.

If the freezing rain hasn't changed to snow yet where you are, it soon will. It won't amount to much in most locations - I suppose one to three inches will do it. But as temperatures drop below freezing, the falling snow combined with the water freezing, will make it bad for driving and walking this evening.

I noticed during the height of the rain this afternoon that there was a bit of street flooding in Burlington, Vermont due to snow-clogged drains. Those big puddles freezing up will be pretty interesting by Sunday morning.

If you need to travel in Vermont or through most of New England or eastern New York this weekend, you've got a narrow, safe window of opportunity tomorrow - Christmas Eve. The road crews will have been out by morning, and there will be little if any precipitation to speak of.

But now, let's get into the Christmas Day snow.

It looks like the storm on Christmas Day will be a little stronger and a little closer to the coast than many forecasters thought earlier. That means more snow.

This still won't be a blockbuster, but there is enough expected snow to prompt winter storm watches for wide areas of the Northeast, including much of New England away from the coast of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Ice accumulates on tree branches in Lowell, Massachusetts
on Saturday. Photo via television station WCVB

Here in Vermont and surrounding areas, look for a general four to eight inch snowfall - the least to the northwest and the most to the south and east and higher elevations. The snow will begin in earnest in the wee hours of the morning Christmas and continue for most if not all of the day.

This still looks like a well-behaved storm with no sleet or freezing rain in inland areas like Vermont, interior New Hampshire and western Maine. Still, the roads will be slick all day so watch out for that.

Vermont ski areas must be rejoicing. They got some good dumps of snow, then some rain and freezing rain to help establish bases today, then more powder tonight and Christmas.

Here's the only drawback for skiers, and the rest of us. It's going to be frickin' COLD during the middle and end of next week. We're talking highs barely making it above zero and lows in the teens below zero, with some isolated cold spots.

Unlike the cold waves of the past couple of winters that only lasted a day or two, this one starts Tuesday and goes at least into next weekend.

Computer models are also hinting at some sort of nor'easter with maybe, just maybe, the potential of some decent snows somewhere in the Northeast or Middle Atlantic States. It's way too soon to pin down who, if anyone will get the bulk of the snow out of that potential storm.  Don't pay serious attention to forecasts that offer specifics of this potential storm until at least Thursday.

Anyone who tells you they know precisely where and how much heavy snow will fall next weekend is, um, snowing you.

Irma Records, And Seemingly Endless Vermont Sunshine

Sister Margaret Ann in West Kendall, Florida
became an social media sensation when
she was spotted chainsawing like a pro
to clear trees felled by Irma that were
blocking a road. 

I have to say that while we've been watching Hurricane Irma, we here in Vermont have entered a stretch of truly gorgeous late summer/early autumn weather.

Sunny, warm days and clear, cool nights have settled in starting this past Sunday, and it's due to continue all week.

There are very few flaws to this weather if you like these types of conditions. There is still smoke in the air high above us, from all those fires in the western United States and Canada. That's giving the sky an off-color, not that bright robins egg blue we like to see.

Chances are the smoke will clear a bit, we'll see. That's partly due to a dramatic shift in the weather coming up for Montana, which has really had a big problem with wildfires this summer.

Today, in the western Montana mountains, the threat of wildfires and dense smoke continues amid unusully warm conditions.

By Thursday night, the temperatures in those same mountains will plummet by up to 50 degrees and it will start to snow. The first winter storm watch of the season is in effect for some of the Montana mountains, believe it or not.

Back here in Vermont, no snow, but there might be a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around Thursday and Friday afternoons to briefly interrupt our sunny stretch. That's because a little moisture from the dead remnants of Hurricane Irma sneak into our sunny world.

High pressure, however looks like it will continue to hang tough over us through the weekend, giving us continued warm afternoons and clear nights.

While I say nights will be clear, this time of year there is almost always patches of dense fog, especially in river valleys and near lakes and ponds.  So you'll have to watch out for that if your driving early any morning for the next week. Any fog each day will burn off quickly after the sun comes up.

Recapping Irma, she did set some records for an intense Atlantic hurricane.  Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in hurricanes compiled a long list. Some highlights.

Irma was tied with the 1935 Florida Keys storm, Gilbert in 1988 and Wilma in 2005 as having the second strongest winds on record for any Atlantic hurricane, at 185 mph. (Hurricane Allen maxed out at 190 mph in 1980.)

The 185 mph Irma winds were the strongest of any Atlantic Ocean hurricane outside the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Those 185 Irma winds lasted 37 hours, the longest period of time  such strong winds persisted for any tropical cyclone anywhere in the world.

Irma was a Category 5 storm for a little over three days, tying the record for the longest life of a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. The tie was with a hurricane that hit Cuba in 1932.

Another interesting coincidence: The last major hurricane to hit Florida was Wilma in 2005, which made landfall on Marco Island. This year, Irma made landfall in Florida, you guessed it -- on Marco Island.

By the way, the other hurricane spinning out in the Atlantic - Jose - is looking more and more likely to completely miss the United States, which is great news.