Fay Was A Bust; Back To Praying For Random Showers

"The Wrath Of Fay" Skies over St. Albans, Vermont around 6:30 this
morning as the center of what was Fay was probably entering
southwest Vermont. As you can tell, the storm was a bust
for Vermont.  By the way wind gusts at the time this
photo was taken were "roaring" in the um, 10-15 mph range.

As you can tell by going outside, Tropical Storm Fay was a bust in Vermont, dropping only a little rain and not the nice soaking downpours we'd hoped for.

Fay's main rain band went further west than expected, into central New York, and weakened even more rapidly than originally thought as it trekked up New York's Hudson River Valley.  Dry air also got sucked into the system from the west, cutting down on the rainfall.

By the time it reached Albany, Fay was just a diffuse remnant low, spewing out a few lame northbound showers in Vermont.

This band of rain at least is affecting pretty much all of Vermont with briefly moderate rains in some spots. It won't be huge, but we'll take any raindrop we can get at this point. .

On with the drought, I guess.

Sure, there are more rain chances, but we're back to the routine we've since May: Just hoping random showers might hit your own garden.  At least we won't go days on end without at least getting some risk of rain, so there's that. And it's a little cooler.

Yesterday in Burlington was the fifth day this year of 95 degree or warmer weather. The record for an entire year is nine.  We've also had 12 days of 90 degree or hotter weather. We're still quite a ways from the record of 26 in a single year, which is good.

It also looks like more 90 degree weather is unlikely for several days at least. We'll deal with lot of warmth and humidity and that sort of ickiness, but nothing extreme.

There will be severa chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, so I'm thinking almost everyone will get a little rain over the next week or so.

Now that Fay went pffft, we're left with a humid, tropical air mass.  That disturbance coming in from the west I've been talking about over the past couple of days is still moving into the picture today, so more showers and scattered thunderstorms will blossom this afternoon and evening.

A few lucky people will get some good downpours with these today.  A very few unlucky people are at risk for a severe storm.  A couple of them could produce microbursts, which would bring local damaging winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, the lowest of five risk levels.

More of the same is due all week, though some days will be drier than others. Some days will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms, other days, not so much. It all depends on the timing of these little summertime weather disturbances coming at us in this generally warm, humid west to southwest air flow over us.

Tropical Storm Fay did manage to cause a little trouble in some of the Mid-Atlantic States.  It made landfall a little north of Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday with its packet of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Several towns in and around New Jersey reported flooding problems.  Gusty coastal winds brought down some trees and power lines.  This was certainly no mega disaster, but it was an inconvenience.

Fay was also the earliest "F" storm on record.

Tropical Storm Fay Is Vermont's Friend

Vermont is rarely hit by any kind of tropical system.

Visible satellite photo showing Tropical Storm Fay
moving northward just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

But when the Green Mountain State is hit by a tropical storm or depression or hurricane, it's pretty much always had news.

In the topsy-turvy year of 2020, though, Tropical Storm Fay, on balance, looks like it will help Vermont much more than it will hurt.

Since Fay is a tropical storm, which are always very wet and windy, the storm will be bad news for some people, though.

WHERE IT'S AT AND GOING

As of 8 a.m this morning, Tropical Storm Fay had top winds of 50 mph, mostly east of its center.It was about 100 miles or so south of the southern tip of New Jersey.

Tropical Storm Fay was northbound as of early this morning, and will continue in that direction as it picks up forward speed. It'll scrape past New Jersey, possibly even making landfall there.  If not, it will come ashore not far from New York City tonight

At this point, forecasts take Tropical Storm Fay up the Hudson River Valley into either eastern New York or western Vermont.  The official 5 a.m. Friday National Hurricane Center forecast track had Fay pretty much sitting right over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 2 p.m. Saturday. It will then head into Quebec.

I'm delighted this could happen. So are my gardens.  We welcome the prospect of a potential soaking.

Of course, by the time, Fay hits Vermont or nearby, it will have been downgraded to a tropical depression and it will be starting to transition to a non-tropical system.

If Fay is still at tropical storm strength by the time it hits Vermont, it will only be the fourth tropical storm known to have its center pass over somewhere in the Green Mountain State.

Two of those past tropical systems were devastating and deadly. Tropical Storm Irene killed at least six Vermonters and pretty much tied with 1927 as creating the worst flood in the state's history.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 also passed through Vermont, causing serious flooding and leveling tracts of forests with its winds. The 1938 storm decimated the maple sugar industry for years afterward.

FAY IS NOT MEAN LIKE THE OTHERS

Fay's effects will be far, far, less serious in Vermont than Irene or the 1938 storm.

Here's why:

1. It's weak, so doesn't have the power to unleash widespread torrential rains or damaging winds.  Wind gusts for almost all of us should stay below 35 mph. A few favored areas, perhaps including some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 45 mph.

2. It's fast. Fay will be rocketing northward and will only affect directly affect Vermont for several hours.  It might rain torrentially at times, but the rain won't last long enough to cause serious flooding. Some favored spots might get extra rain, causing local stream flooding, road washouts and urban flooding, but this is certainly no Irene.

3. Vermont is dry. Parts of the state are in a drought. That's why I'm liking Fay so much.  It could put a good dent in the dry conditions we have been having.

The thing I worry about most from Fay is not too much rain, but too little. Forecast tracks for Fay keep pushing it further west.  The heaviest rain with northbound tropical storms in the Northeast is to the west of their track.

If Fay goes up through New York State instead of through Vermont, we could miss out on the heaviest rain.   Right now, forecasts call for one to two inches of rain from Fay in Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

More rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday could offer additional help with the dry conditions.

Fay will also help break the heat somewhat.  We have one more hot day today, but the clouds and precipitation with Fay, and another disturbance approaching from the west, will encourage clouds, which will hold daytime temperatures down a little. It will still be miserably humid though, at least into Monday.

Some clouds from Fay will move northward across Vermont this afternoon, and those might actually temper the heat a little in southern  Vermont  It will still be blazing up north, though.

FAY'S EFFECTS ELSEWHERE

It isn't all fun and games with Tropical Storm Fay.  Closer to its landfall, Fay could easily dump enough rain to cause flooding. Flash flood watches are up for New Jersey, western Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, far eastern Pennslyvania  and the Hudson River Valley and surrounding areas from Saratoga Springs south to New York City.

Some of the downpours with Fay are pretty intense.  Ocean City, Maryland had about 1.5 inches of rain in one hour, and 2.75 inches within just two hours, for instance.

Winds along some coastal areas could gust to 55 mph. Coastal flooding is likely to be minor.

Tropical storms like Fay can spin up tornadoes, so some are possible later today and tonight in and near Long Island, New York parts of far southern New England, the  New York City metro area and coastal New Jersey.