June Vermont Heat Busting All Kinds Of Records. Finally A Little Rain?

So close and yet so far. A thunderstorm juuusst missed my
parched gardens in St. Albans, Vermont last evening, leaving
me literally in the dust. Photo taken while I was watering
said garden as I watched the storm depart toward the east. 

The heat goes on in Vermont, at least for one more day today as records fall due to the persistent heat wave.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Monday, exceeding the old record of 92 set in 1921.  It was the fifth consecutive day of 90+ heat, making it the longest such stretch on record for the month of June.

That record just got extended.

It was 90 degrees at noon in Burlington. That's six days in a row at 90 or above. That ties the record for the second longest heat wave on record in Burlington.

Today's 90 also means we tie with 1949 the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June - which is seven.

Today's record high in Burlington is 93 degrees. We have a good shot of reaching that, too.  If it gets to 94 degrees today, we will be in a four way tie for the most consecutive days of 94 degree weather in Burlington, says WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette.  That would be four consecutive days of such weather.

Atop Mount Mansfield, the high temperature yesterday was 83 degrees, shattering the old record of 75 degrees set in 1998.

A remarkable record has been set on Lake Champlain. The water temperature, as measured roughly seven feet below the surface was 79 degrees this morning, which is the hottest the lake water has been since they started keeping track in 1972.

Lake Champlain water temperature, by the way, usually peaks in August.

I'm theorizing a unique set of circumstances created this hot Lake Champlain water.  It's been dry, so cool river water has not been flowing in. More importantly, mainly clear skies have been sitting over the lake for days on end right around the Summer Solstice, which offers plenty of time for the sun to heat the water.

A record long heat wave striking right at Summer Solstice also helped. Probably an even more important factor is winds have been light winds for several days now. Strongest wind gusts over the past week have been under 20 mph, except in highly local areas that were near isolated thunderstorms

With a little more wind, clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures on the way, Lake Champlain water temperatures will fall somewhat, but stay unseasonably warm, is my guess.

Some relief is finally on the way, believe it or not, but it won't necessarily get chilly by any means.

As of late morning today, billowing thunderheads are already forming in the mountains.  Unlike yesterday, these nascent storms are actually moving, so the percentage of us who will get some rain today will be a wee bit higher today than in the past few.  Most of us will still miss out, I think.

Which is too bad. We really, really need the rain. Burlington, for instance, has just had a paltry 0.37 inches of rain this month.  They should have accumulated about 2.7 inches during June so far had this month been anywhere near normal.

It was frustrating yesterday here in St. Albans, when a thunderstorm formed near Plattsburgh, dumping a wondrous 1.3 inches of rain on that city.  The storm began to move slowly northeastward, right toward me.

But the storm collapsed on the way over, and all I got was a trace of rain and an outflow boundary that brought a brief, cool gust of wind of about 25 mph.

That outflow boundary created a new storm just to my east, which created a nice downpour there. That new storm headed east, away from St. Albans. For me, I was left in the dust, literally.

Although some of us have gotten some welcome rain in isolated storms - I see you @VermonsterWx - most of us have missed out just like me.

At least there's now hope of getting a little rain. If you avoid a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, that welcome cold front will probably bring some more widespread showers and rumbles of thunder later tonight and Wednesday.

The timing of the front means there won't be a lot of rain, except for a handful of places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm. But even a little will help. Generally we can expect a half inch of rain or less with this, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

We have a second chance of some watering this weekend. A warm front and little storm system has the potential to dump some decent rains on us Saturday. Don't hold your breath on this one, though. Currently, it's a big maybe.

Temperatures will fall to near normal for a few days, starting Wednesday afternoon and going into the weekend. (Highs in the 75-82 degree range).

I do see some worrying signs that it could turn hot again as June closes and July begins. That's also a big maybe.  It might well be not nearly as bad as the heat wave we just went through.  But judging by the weirdness of this weather year, you never know.

Great Lakes Still Near Record Highs; Winter Gales Taking Their Toll

This popular tourist attraction, a sea stack in Lake Superior, collapsed
in high water and  windy blizzard this past week. It's a symptom
of heavy damage due to persistent very high water levels in the Great Lakes.

Residents around all of the Great Lakes have been struggling really for two or more years now with high lake levels.

Unusually heavy, persistent precipitation has been going on basically for the past five years in most of the Great Lakes watershed, keeping the water levels high.

Also, several winters in the past five years have had greater than normal ice extent on the lakes. The ice greatly slows evaporation and evaporation is one of the main ways water levels in the Great Lakes can decline.

These lakes are much bigger than say, even Lake Champlain, so water levels in the Great Lakes change slowly.  It takes a long time for them either to rise or fall. Small lakes like Champlain can flood, but the water will go down within several weeks after a flood event.

The Great Lakes have remained stubbornly high. This time of year brings storms with very strong, gusty winds, so shorelines have been eroding steadily, with very damaging results.

Many shoreline homes and cottages this fall and winter from Lake Superior to Lake Ontario have been damaged or even destroyed in these storms.  A famed sea stack -  pile of rocks near the shore of Lake Superior, collapsed this past week amid unusually high water and a very windy blizzard.

It'll probably get worse.  Great Lakes water levels do usually fall in the winter, but melting snow and spring rains make them rise again in the spring. So the first half of 2020 might turn out to be especially destruction in all of the Great Lakes, especially if it's wet.

Even near normal precipitation in the late winter and spring will keep the lakes at near record high levels.

Here in Vermont, there's absolutely no telling how high Lake Champlain will get next spring. Right now it's a little higher than average for this time of year due to a wet fall and early winter. But whether there will be any spring flooding really depends solely on how much snow and rain we get this winter, and how wet the first half of spring is.

Back in the Midwest, just six or seven years ago, Great Lakes water levels were at unusually low levels, due to increased temperatures in the region. Water evaporates more readily when it's warm than when the water is chillier.

Scientific American says more wild weather patterns, largely brought on by climate change, might be making this a "new normal" in which water levels seesaw up and down to more extreme levels than in past decades.

Here's a couple recent Great Lakes videos:

This is a recent CBC report from the Canadian side of Lake Erie:



Here's a Lake Michigan park and walkway being pummeled and wrecked by waves recently:

Stormy Days Like Today, Yesterday Show Why You Shouldn't Go Out On Lake

Possible microburst over Lake Champlain west of Burlington Tuesday.
(Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see.). Even if
this wasn't a microburst and even though the storm wasn't severe
when it came ashore in Vermont, this illustrates why you
should not be out on the lake when thunderstorms develop. 

Today in Vermont, we once again have several weather threats,   including strong to severe thunderstorms with locally damaging winds, a lot of lightning, and maybe even localized flooding.

Which is a great reason to stay off of places like Lake Champlain today.

That idea was well illustrated to me yesterday when thunderstorms that were (mostly) not as strong as today's expected weather developed.  

Tuesday's storms developed in the Adirodacks and drifted slowly across Lake Champlain into Vermont. As the photo in this post shows, one storm looked like it got ferocious when it was part way across the lake. There was a possible, dangerous microburst out there.

If the microburst occurred, it didn't last long and faded away before the storm came ashore in and around Burlington. Winds gusted to just 32 mph during the storm at the Burlington International Airport, where the National Weather Service is located. I'd estimate gusts along Burlington's lakeshore were about 40 mph. Windy, but manageable.

So the storm wasn't severe on land, and there were no reports of storm damage anywhere in northern New York and Vermont. I only saw a few twigs and small branches down. No biggie.

But the lake was wild, going from calm to having large waves in an incredibly short period of time. I could see big crashing waves slamming into the Burlington breakwater. Lightning strikes hitting the lake couldn't have helped.

It had been a beautiful, sunny day. Then it wasn't. Which means people on boats should always keep their eyes open for developing storms, know what they look like and head to the docks when they see them forming.

The National Weather Servicie in South Burlington did have a special weather statement on yesterday's storm, which said in part: "If you are on or near Lake Champlain, move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm."  Note the exclamation point in that statement.

Last week, two kayakers drowned in Malletts Bay around Colchester during a strong thunderstorm.  I don't know if the storm was directly related, but before the storm it was sunny and hot and calm, and then, suddenly, it wasn't. Were these victims caught unaware as the storm bore down on them?

STORM THREATS TODAY

Areas in yellow have a slight risk of severe storms today.
Darker green is marginal risk. 

Today is going to be a more hazardous day than yesterday, as I've already mentioned. As the NWS in South Burlington, Vermont explains it, the heating of the sun getting through the mostly cloudy skies this morning will be enough to get the air destabilized.  

Wind shear - which is wind shifting and/or changing speeds with height - will be increasing during the peak heating hours. That'll help to develop thunderstorms and organize them.

This organization, in turn could create bands of strong to severe storms. These potentially severe storms are most likely south of Route 2, the NWS says, but could happen anywhere in Vermont.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern two thirds of Vermont in a slight risk zone of severe storms, meaning they expect scattered severe storms, with one or two perhaps becoming intense. Far northern areas are in a marginal risk zone.

The main risk from these storms would be damaging wind gusts, some hail, cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours. Due to the wind shear above, there is a very, VERY tiny, but still not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado. But don't count on that.

The timing of the worst storms looks like it will be somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening.

Note that as always only some areas will see damaging thunderstorms. It'll be hit and miss. A classic example was last week, when a severe storm caused widespread damage in places like Swanton, Highgate and Sheldon, while places just a couple miles south suffered absolutely no harm.

Areas north of Route 2 are slightly less at risk of severe storms, but have another problem.  The center of a weak area of low pressure will pass over or near northern New York and far northern Vermont.

Thicker cloud cover there will help tamp down on severe thunderstorms a bit, but this little low pressure area, working with humid air will tend to focus downpours in this region. Although it has been fairly dry in recent weeks, intense downpours can still cause local flooding, such as small streams going nuts, urban street flooding, washouts on steep hills, damaged culverts, that sort of thing.

The National Weather Service's Excessive Rainfall Outlook puts northern zones of Vermont and New York in a slight risk zone for flash flooding.

It'll be somewhat calmer tomorrow as a cold front starts to come through, but there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around. It's still looking cool for the weekend.

Great Lakes Flooding Will Be Much Worse Than This Year's Not Bad Lake Champlain Flood

Flooding along Lake Ontario in New York in 2017. Flooding in
the Great Lakes could be even worse this year.

Here in Vermont, Lake Champlain has been above its 100-foot flood stage since April 20, and it won't go below stage for awhile yet.

The lake had been slowly receding, until we got whomped by all that rain Friday.

Most of central and northern Vermont, and the Adirondacks got more than an inch of rain, and that water flowed into the rivers, and now into the lake. 

After peaking at around 100.8 feet aroud the first of the month, it had gone down to 100.25 or so by Thursday. Now, as of Saturday morning, it was up to 100.5 feet and still rising from all that runoff. 

So far, damage has been light along Lake Champlain because it's far from the highest level on record and winds have been relatively light most of the time. Which means there haven't been much in the way of battering waves.

With more rain in the forecast this week, the lake will only slowly recede after today, if at all.

The high water in Lake Champlain is a temporary inconvenience for some, but further west, the Great Lakes are much more problematic. Due to heavy winter snows and now a very wet spring, the Great Lakes are getting greater.

Water is rising in those lakes, and some might reach record levels later this spring. This will be a months-long problem, too. The Great Lakes are so big, it takes a long time for water to go down after they start to flood.

According to The Weather Channel, New York is bracing for record flooding along the shores of Lake Ontario. This is the second time in two years there was such a problem there. Lake Ontario flooding caused about $100 million in damage in the spring of 2017.

Phys.org reports experts think flooding this year will be even worse than in 2017.

Areas around Toronto and other spots in Ontario are also bracing for damaging Great Lakes floods.

Towns along the shore of Lake Erie in Ohio are flooded, and that is expected to get worse as well.

Flood levels will vary quickly in the Great Lakes even if overall water levels stay high. Persistent winds from a particular direction on a given day would "tilt" the water to one end of the lakes or the other.

For instance, a day with strong  northeast winds would push water into Ohio, but a spell of southwesterly winds would send water into Buffalo and other communities in western New York.

It seems pretty unknown what, if any, effect climate change is having on the Great Lakes levels. On one hand, warmer temperatures would cause more evaporation, which would lower lake levels. But extreme precipitation events could also become more likely, which would make lake levels rise.

I guess with so many consequences of climate change, expect more variability and extremes in the Great Lakes.




 north

This 'N That" Frost, Wind, Lake Flooding Vermont; Much More Serious Weather Elsewhere

Spring blooms enjoy a rainy midday Tuesday
in South Burlington, Vermont.

There's kind of a mishmash of weather heading our way in Vermont over the next few days, with a mix of minor hazards to deal with over the next week.

We're not facing anything all that extreme for this time of year, but there are still definitely a few things to watch.

Even if you don't like all the weather that's coming to the Green Mountains State, remember, it could be a lot worse:

The Plains, Midwest and South are still getting pummel by severe storms, tornadoes and especially flooding. Lots of it.

Let's first deal with Vermont's stuff.   

Today will be the brightest, sunniest day in the forecast. It will also be chilly for this time of year - only in the 50s. Which sets the stage for a freeze tonight.

A frost advisory is up in the Champlain Valley tonight and early Thursday morning as low temperatures sink to around 32 degrees by tomorrow morning. If you've got sensitive plants out there, bring 'em indoors. I don't believe it will be cold enough to nip all those early season perennials that are up. They should be able to take it

The only reason frost alerts are not up for the rest of Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley is because frost and freezes are still pretty common there in early May. People outside the "banana belt" should understand that it's too early for a lot of garden plants anyway.

The next thing to deal with in Vermont is wind and rain, forecast for Thursday night and Friday. For now, about an inch of rain is in the forecast for that storm, which won't be enough to get the rivers flooding in Vermont again.

But here's the problem: Lake Champlain is still above flood stage. Strong south winds will once again  "tilt" the lake so water piles up on the northern end. Because of this tilt, the water up toward Alburgh will briefly rise to near 101 feet.  The strong winds will also create three to four foot waves, which would cause erosion and damage on exposes shorelines. So watch out for that.

The lake has been slowly receding this week, but the expected rain Friday will probably temporarily halt that slow ebbing and maybe even briefly reverse it, notes the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

The next storm after that has a lot of uncertainty with it, but it looks like it will be a cold storm. So cold, in fact, that the mountains could get some snow out of it Sunday night. Stay tuned on that one.

MIDWEST, SOUTH STORM UPDATE

I suppose the good news is there so far haven't been quite as many tornadoes this week as there could have been. Sixteen reports of tornadoes, mostly in Texas and Oklahoma, came in yesterday.  Today and today won't bring a super wide outbreak of twisters, either. But there will be some.

The bad news is the Midwest and South are stuck under this stormy pattern, and flooding continues to break out in new areas and persist in others.

There was tons of flash flooding around Houston, Texas Tuesday. Sugar Land received 10 inches of rain. Lots of people had to be rescued from cars that got caught in the flash flooding. It could get worse. Another seven to 10 inches of rain is forecast over the next seven days in eastern Texas and a large chunk of Louisiana.

Large parts of Kansas are having pretty much the same problem as Houston. Flash flooding has hit wide areas of that state, including in the Wichita metro area. 

Soggy Vermont April Ends; May Begins Wet

The sun pokes out briefly between showers in St. Albans on April 10.
It was a wet April in Vermont. 

If you thought April in Vermont this year seemed soggy and damp you were absolutely right.

Rainfall was definitely above average, with some areas in the northern part of the state seeing nearly two inches more precipitation than average.

As we know, there was also a lot of snow to melt in the mountains, so we did have some pretty substantial flooding, especially at midmonth.

Some counties in Vermont might actually be declared disaster areas because of the high water. Stay tuned on that one.

In general, it was a little on the cool side during April, but not by much. Unlike most of the rest of Vermont, the Champlain Valley was actually a tiny bit warmer than normal, and a little drier than much of the rest of the state. Burlington clocked in with an April average temperature of 45.5 degrees, which was 0.7 degrees warmer than average.

Rainfall in Burlington was "only" 3.53 inches, which was about 0.7 inches on the wet side. Meanwhile, places further east like Montpelier had 4.24 inches of rain, and St. Johnsbury had nearly five inches.

April showers do bring flowers! A crocus blooms in
Burlington, Vermont on April 13. 

The opening day of May will continue this wet trend. Lots of us were treated to a very nice sunrise this morning, but by afternoon, it will likely be raining.  And cold. Highs today will stay in the 40s, which is 15 degrees below normal.

We could get up to an inch of rain in many parts of Vermont and northern New York by Thursday morning. This will likely aggravate Lake Champlain flooding.

The lake level had a peak of just under 101 feet on Monday and was down an inch or two to 100.87 feet this morning. Flood stage starts at 100 feet.

The rain later today and tonight will make rivers rise a fair amount, though they are quite unlikely to flood. But the added water flowing into Lake Champlain will probably force the water level up above 101 feet. At that point, you start risking real damage, especially if you get a windy day stirring up large, battering waves.

A smaller storm Friday and an fairly active weather pattern next week will dump some more rain on our wet landscape, so the high water on the lake will only slowly recede as the month goes on.

Rain, Snow, Severe Weather, Floods, Winds Ahhh, Spring

Floodwater from Lake Champlain surrounds a mobile home
in Alburgh, Vermont on Thursday. 

This morning's post is a series of weather highlights to watch today. None of them are super extreme, but all of them should be watched in case of trouble.

Some of the issues are here in Vermont, others are relatively far from home. So let's get into it:

LAKE CHAMPLAIN: Minor flooding continues on the lake, but the water is high enough to cause some trouble and damage. I've noticed some erosion of back yards that touch the lake in some areas of the shoreline.

The lake level this morning was right around 100.7 feet, or 7/10ths of a foot above flood stage. Some gusty southeast winds could cause erosion on the New York side of the lake today. Plus those persistent winds will "tilt" the lake, pushing water higher into the north end. Flooding will get a little worse, temporarily at least, up north by Alburgh and those areas.

Saturday, relatively gusty winds will switch around to the west, causing some wave action to screw around with the Vermont shore. Luckily, so far, we're not anticipating any huge, tremendous wind storms which would make shoreline damage a lot worse. But the expected one to two foot waves can still cause trouble.

The storm today and tonight will drop between a half inch to an inch of rain. River flooding isn't expected here in Vermont from this, but the water in those rivers will probably rise enough to keep Lake Champlain going up for a few days, possibly reaching 101 feet. At the very least, it won't recede anytime soon.

THOSE WINDS:  The winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains today will become pretty strong, especially this afternoon. Gusts could reach 50 mph or higher, so there will be a few power outages and tree branches down in those regions.

Elsewhere, winds could gust over 30 mph, making for a raw, chilly day, with highs in the 40s east, low 50s west.

THAT RAIN: As mentioned, aside from Lake Champlain, today and tonight's storm won't cause renewed flood trouble in Vermont, but might well do so in New Hampshire and Maine.

Up there, it will rain harder and there is still more snow to melt in the mountains. One to three inches of rain is expected in central and northern New Hampshire and western Maine. That's where the most mountain snow still remains, making it a double whammy. They've already had flooding this month, and flood watches are up again, as it looks like another round of high water is in the offing in northeastern New England.

SAY IT AIN'T SNOW

Here in northern New England, a pretty nasty chunk of chilly air will follow today's storm. In the mountains, high temperatures Saturday won't get out of the 30s. Valleys will be in the chilly 40s. The higher elevations could get a dusting to a few inches of snow Saturday. A few rogue flakes could easily reach valley floors.

This isn't unheard of this time of year, obviously, but it's still unwelcome.

And it's not as bad as southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa are under a winter storm watch for Saturday. These areas could get four to nine inches of snow out of a storm scooting through. That's pretty far south for a winter storm this time of year, and I'm sure they're hating it out there.

This storm will eventually affect mostly southern Vermont, but it will bring some rain, but not much snow. There could be a mix of rain and snow in some mountains Sunday, we'll see.

SEVERE WEATHER

Today's storm system brings the risk of severe thunderstorms and maybe some tornadoes to the Mid-Atlantic States. This continues a trend that seems to have started last year, in which tornadoes are touching down with seemingly greater frequency on the East Coast.

There have already been damaging tornadoes this year from Pennsylvania through Virginia down into the Southeast. Today's threat is from southeastern Pennsylvania down through Delaware, eastern Maryland, Virginia and into eastern South Carolina.

Obviously, no severe storms are expected up here in Vermont, but there's a chance we could hear a rumble of thunder overnight.

Lake Champlain Flood Continues, Won't Go Away Soon

Lake Champlain has been above flood stage since Sunday morning, and the high water isn't going to end anytime soon.

Floods along the lake tend to last days and weeks anyway, as so many rivers and streams feed in. There's only one outlet - the Richelieu River in Quebec It's like pouring multiple buckets of water into  a bathtub with the drain open.

You can fill a tub that way faster than it will drain. The same is true with Lake Champlain.

As of this afternoon, Lake Champlain was at 100.63 feet, or about six-tenths of a foot above flood stage.

At least the lake has pretty much stopped rising, at the moment. A USGS graph shows the water level not changing much since late yesterday. It's up just 0.03 feet in the seven hours ending at 2 p.m., which is just a rounding error.

Rainfall last night was probably not enough to add much of an additional surge to Lake Champlain, if anything. Snow melt from the mountains probably added a little extra runoff during Tuesday afternoon's warm temperatures.  That rain and snow melt probably delayed a flood crest, though.

The rise in Lake Champlain's lake level was stalling at just
above 100.6 feet today. It's more than a  half foot above
flood stage. When it starts receding that process will be slow. 

Cooler weather that is expected to be locked in for a week or so probably means what little snow remains in the mountains will not melt much. In fact, new snow was falling on some peaks today, including the summit of Mount Mansfield.

The weather pattern will remain unsettled and frequently showery, which would further delay or slow any retreat of Lake Champlain flood water.

We'll need to watch a storm on Friday, which has the potential to a least slightly increase the flow of water into Lake Champlain. Beyond that, it's too soon to tell whether any storms will have an influence on the flooding.

While the lake is flooding, the biggest danger from any real damage is if we have particularly windy days, which would send battering waves against shorelines, causing erosion, road damage and possibly even damage to lakeside camps.

Northwest winds were causing one to two foot waves today. The next real chance of bigger waves comes Saturday, when expected northwest winds could create three-foot waves.

If you want a brighter side, at least this Lake Champlain flood won't be nearly as bad as the worst on record, in 2011.  The flooding that year came from a combination of a deep, moisture rich mountain snow pack and record amounts of rain in April and May.

We certainly won't have record amounts of rain this month, and the risk of such rainfall records next month is minimal at best.

Flood Update And Those Weird Temperatures In Vermont On Saturday

Water from Lake Champlain began to creep over this walkway
at Perkins Pier in Burlington, Vermont Saturday as the
lake approached its 100-foot flood stage.

Water is receding this Sunday morning in most of Vermont, with the notable exception of Lake Champlain and the Connecticut River as the weather has taken a dramatic turn for the better, especially in northwestern parts of the state.

As expected, most of the flooding was minor, except in parts of the Northeast Kingdom where the heavy rains Friday and Saturday fell on melting snow.

High water around St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville rivaled the damaging floods of April, 2014, May, 2011 and July, 1973.  Homes and businesses in some parts of Lyndonville and St. Johnsbury likely suffered flood damage.

USGA data indicated Lake Champlain reached its 100 flood stage at around mid-morning today. and it will continue rising for at least a day or two as the rest of the runoff from that weekend rain and snowmelt makes its way to the lake.

The risk of damage from the lake flooding will come if we get any high winds over the next couple of weeks that could cause battering waves and erosion. Spring can be a windy time of year, so that's something to be watched.

It could get a breezy on Wednesday, but there are no big wind storms in the forecast for at least the next week. So that's good.

The other flood problem is along the Connecticut River from about Fairlee north.  Waterways were particularly high in northeastern Vermont and northern New Hampshire because there was more snow to melt there than elsewhere. That and the rain sent a LOT of water headed toward the Connecticut River.

At Wells River, Vermont, the Connecticut River could be close to two feet above flood stage, with possible further rises after that.  Low water crossings will be underwater for days, as will many hundreds of acres of farmland.

As the crest goes downstream, people should monitor the Connecticut River from along the central Vermont/New Hampshire border to Long Island Sound in Connecticut. Flooding is a possibility all the way down to the mouth of the river.

Other than the Connecticut River and Lake Champlain, I don't see much in the way of new flooding threats for the rest of the week at least. We'll certainly get our share of off and on April showers during the week and into next weekend, but there are no drenching storms in the forecast

ODD TEMPERATURES

A temperature inversion kept Burlington, Vermont chilly and
foggy last evening, while elsewhere in Vermont, it
was a very mild evening with temperatures in the 60s.

Can we talk about how weird the weather was on Saturday? Yes, it was a typically rainy April day, but those temperatures were all over the place.

One of the reasons why there was so much flooding is in many cases, the mountains were warmer than valleys, at least the valleys in western Vermont.

An inversion kept a layer of warm air overhead, with chily air in the deeper valleys of northwestern Vermont.

The top of Mount Mansfield had temperatures in the 50s all day Saturday, with rapid snowmelt contributing to the flooding. The snow depth there went from 107 to 90 inches in two days.

Meanwhile, in Burlington, temperatures were in the low 40s all day, as low level cold air drained down the valley from the north.

To the east, on the other side of a stalled cold front, in places like St. Johnsbury and White River Junction, temperatures Saturday were well up into the 60s.

South winds were blowing just one to two thousand feet overhead, so it was warmer up above. The cold waters of Lake Champlain also helped to form a lid of cold air over the Champlain Valley, which did not allow those warm winds above us to mix down to the surface. Thick fog formed beneath this lid keeping the warm air above out.

This lid began to break up overnight, leading to strange temperature changes. Rutland was just north of the stalled front during the day Saturday. Temperatures in Rutland abruptly went from the 60s to the 40s just before midnight Friday as the cold front came through. The front stalled a few miles south of Rutland, keeping readings there in the 40s most of the day.

That front jogged north and the inversion broke in Rutland a little before 6 p.m., and the temperature immediately rocketed upward into the upper 60s. Very strange.

In Burlington, the temperarture abruptly rose about nine degrees just before midnight as the south wind finally broke through, and that 54 degrees at midnight was the high temperature for the day.

Things are taking a much more normal arc today. Lows in the 50s this morning will rise to the 60s or maybe around 70 this afternoon. Readings will slowly fall this evening, which is the way things are supposed to work.

Vermont Flood Waning. Does Another One Loom?

In this photo from VTrans, water from the White River beginning to
overtake Route 107 in Stockbridge on Monday. 

It has definitely stopped raining in Vermont and the rivers are receding after yesterday's floods. 

There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post showing the Vermont flooding.

It was nothing at all like the flood disaster in Nebraska earlier this spring, but the Vermont water was certainly high.

There were still some flood warnings out there this morning, including along the Winooski and upper Connecticut River and the Otter Creek in Center Rutland.

While the Connecticut River crest will continue downstream from the Northeast Kingdom, the other two rivers are receding and should fall below flood stage later today. Clearing skies, gusty winds and dry air today should help with the drying process. It's also too cold today for much of the remaining snow in the mountains to melt, so we don't have to worry about that runoff.

Luckily, this flood stopped short of damaging many houses. There were a handful of evacuations, and I know some basements in parts of central and southern Vermont were flooded. Most of the problems came along roads.

I was impressed by how many major state highways were closed by high water yesterday - probably at least a dozen.

Back roads took a hit. It's mud season, so dirt roads were soft and squishy and the soil was easily moved. Most heavy storms in April feature a steady soaking rain. This one included torrential downpours in thunderstorms in the southern half of Vermont, so many rural roads were washed out and closed. Quite the mess, I must say.

One person had to be rescued from a parking lot at the Killington Ski Resort. The resort is still open, and skiers sometimes sleep in their cars to save money during local skiing and riding exursions. While Anthony Szeliga, 23, of Niagara Falls, New York slept in the only car in the lot, waters rose overnight, trapping him in his SUV, according to the Rutland Herald.

Szeliga was rescued, uninjured and taken to a local hotel, the Herald reported. 

Northwestern Vermont, where I live, lucked out.  A lot of us had only roughly half an inch of rain, and it really caused no problems. Everything is high and dry today around my house in St. Albans.

Looking ahead, though, there might be more trouble. Wednesday will be dry and sunny, with normal temperatures in the 50s - no problems there.

There might be a little rain Thursday and Friday, and temperatures will rise sharply by Friday, so runoff from mountain snowmelt will pick up.

Then there is an interesting looking storm on Saturday. It's too soon to tell whether Vermont will be targeted by the storm's heavy rain or will the downpours go by to our west or east?

The storm looks like it's going to grab a plume of deep, rich moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and push it northward somewhere along the East Coast on Saturday. But the fine details aren't there yet.

It looks like we in Vermont would be on the warm side of the storm. If that comes to pass, we'd be at risk of thunderstorms with heavy downpours once again. Sharp rains like that would cause more back road and driveway washouts and such. So stay tuned.

Lake Champlain this morning was closing in on flood stage. It was 99 feet above sea level this morning and rising. Flood stage is 100 feet.  There's only minor flooding at 100 feet, but if it gets to 101 feet, you run the risk of shoreline damage, especially if strong wind whip up big, battering waves.

We'll have to keep an eye out on the lake over the next couple of weeks to see what it does.

Some video:

Scenes of flooding from various parts of central Vermont:



The Vermont Department of Agriculture took a drone over the flooding Winooski and Mad rivers in central Vermont Monday. As you can see, there was a lot of lowland flooding but the houses all looked safe. This flooding hit early enough in the season so that the agricultural fields you see under water should be fine when planting season hits:

It's Official: Lake Champlain Froze Over Friday

Satellite view of Lake Champlain taken Friday afternoon showing it
is completely iced over. Open water would be seen as areas of
bluish-black. Dark areas on the surrounding landscape in this
satellite are mostly areas of conifer trees.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington made it official yesterday, so I might as well today:

Lake Champlain froze over.

For the first time since February, 2015, ice entirely covered the lake Friday.

Satellite imagery taken on a crystal clear, cloudless afternoon Friday showed no signs of open water on the lake. Since late February when most of the lake froze there had still been small open spots in the ice well off the coast of Burlington.

As far as freeze overs go, this one is pretty late. Usually, if the lake does freeze entirely, it happens in late January or February.   In somewhat unreliable records dating back to 1816, I could only find four years in which the lake froze over as late or later than it did Friday.

By this time in March, the sun angle is higher, and the dark water near the edge of the ice does a better job of absorbing the heat. That melts the ice from the edges of the water, keeping open spots.

Plus the nights are a little shorter, so there's not as much time for ice to re-freeze after the sun goes down.

But we had three days of mid-January chill this past week. Thursday night and the hours before dawn Friday offered the perfect conditions for freezing over any open spots in the lake: Winds were near calm, and the temperature fell to near zero.

Since it's so late in the winter, don't count on the lake staying completely frozen for long. For all I know as I write this at 2 p.m. Saturday afternoon, open spots might have re-formed. After all, the sun is blazing down nicely, and temperatures even in the shade are near or above freezing.

On Sunday, strong winds will probably shift ice, allowing for the possibility of more open water. If that and above freezing readings Sunday and Monday afternoon don't open up a few spots, expected temperatures in the 50s late next week probably will.

All this is to say don't count on the Lake Champlain ice being safe everywhere. Don't follow the rather tongue-in-cheek suggestion of television station WCVB in Boston to drive across the Lake Champlain. You might plunge through a pressure crack or weak spot with your vehicle.

You'll see a lot of vehicles and people on the thicker ice over bays and such ice as people ice fish or skate.   That's probably safe in the short term, but will get more and more unsafe as the month goes on.

Lake Champlain does not completely freeze over as much as it once did. However, the data is skewed because there weren't satellites to detect open spots years ago. So before the satellite era, the lake might have been deemed frozen over from viewers on shore, but there still might have been spots of open waters.

Still, I suspect climate change is taking somewhat of a toll on lake ice, because Vermont winters are demonstratively warmer than they were decades ago.

In the 19 years since 2000, the lake has frozen over only eight times. Before, say, 1970, back to 1816, when people started  really monitoring the lake, it froze over most years. Again, though, some of those years might have had small spots of open water people missed.

It's not just Lake Champlain that has a lot of ice this year. As of Friday, the Great Lakes were about 80 percent ice covered. That's only the ninth time in the past 47 years there was that much ice on those lakes. Like on Lake Champlain, the Great Lakes probably have the peak amount of ice they're going to get this winter. .

Cool Sunday Clouds, The Week Ahead, Winter Keeps Going, Storm Uncertainty Weekend

I hope you got outside to enjoy the weather in Vermont Sunday.

Sure it was pretty cold, with a subzero dawn and highs only reaching the low teens. But the sun was out, the winds were light, wind chills were non-existent and most areas had fresh powder on the ground.

What's not to love with that?

Many Vermont ski area operators were probably in a good mood. When the snow tapered off to pretty much nothing this past Wednesday and Thursday, it kept cranking on the western slopes and on the summits of the Green Mountains.

I was a little stunned by the final snow totals from last week in those areas. Jericho, Vermont clocked in with a total of 23 inches of fresh snow, Waterbury got 21 inches and Fletcher received 20 inches.

There was some pretty cool clouds over northern Vermont Sunday morning, especially as viewed from space and especially if you're a weather geek. Check out the GIF in this post, and thanks to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Eric Weglarz for noticing this and putting it on Twitter for all to see.

The main thing you see is a mass of low clouds oozing south from Canada Sunday morning. If you look closely, notice how they go around to the west and east of Greeen Mountains. That's because this cloud layer was so low and so thin, it couldn't get around the mountains.

Instead, these low clouds spread southward down the Champlain Valley and other lowlands. The clouds got to a certain point, then dissipated, leaving even northern Vermont with a mostly sunny afternoon.

Ahead of those clouds you can also see a plume of lake effect clouds, and probably lake effect snow showers, originating in the middle of Lake Champlain just about offshore of Colchester, then heading south to dust the southern end of the lake shoreline.

I wasn't in the Burlington area Sunday, but I'm told the lake, and the clouds were particularly pretty on Sunday.

Now it's the work week, and we have to deal with whatever the weather will bring us. In a nutshell, it'll be quiet to start, then get more interesting as the week goes on.

TODAY: After yet another subzero morning this morning, it'll warm up nicely into the upper teens far north to the low to mid 20s elsewhere. Not bad!

TUESDAY: Arguably pick of the week. We'll have a fair amount of clouds around in the morning, with maybe a few flurries here and there. There might be a little more sun  in the afternoon. Temperatures will get well into the 20s to perhaps near 30 in the warm spots. Light winds will make this a perfect day for outdoor winter sports.

WEDNESDAY: It could get a little interesting in the afternoon. An Arctic cold front will be approaching. Ahead of the front, temperatures might actually get above freezing in the warmer areas. As the front approaches, the relative warmth will help add a little instability to the air, and this will touch off some snow showers and possibly some snow squalls.

There won't be much accumulations - most of us will get an inch or less - but the snow squalls will briefly cut visibililty to next to nothing, and very quickly slicken up the roads in a few spots, so watch out for that.

The greatest chance of this happening is the northern half of Vermont. The snow squalls will probably be more intense, and thus more interesting, up in the Montreal metro area.

THURSDAY: Quiet and cold again, with highs staying in the low teens at best. It could get below zero again at night.

BEYOND THURSDAY:  It looks like the weather pattern will become more active after Thursday. The forecast also gets really uncertain.  Here's how it looks at this point but things are DEFINITELY subject to change.

A small storm will pass nearby Friday, throwing some light snow at us. If it does snow, it won't be that big a deal.

A schematic of a possible East Coast storm on Sunday.
This map is just a first guess, and forecasts will
certainly be revised. Count on the storm to not
look exactly like this if and when it does form. 

Sometime toward Sunday and Monday, it looks like there will be some sort of substantial storm somwhere along or near the East Coast.

There's already a lot of hype on social media and elsewhere about this from weather weenies who want to get a lot of clicks and follows.

As usual when there's a hint of a storm on the horizon, they're touting an enormous, paralyzing storm that will bring the eastern half of the nation to a standstill. Or something like that.

As usual, serious meteorologists and weather geeks are telling everybody to take a deep breath. I'm in this camp.

The storm certainly won't be The End Of The World.  Somebody, somewhere in the eastern United States will probably get a winter storm over the weekend and early next week. It could possibly be a fairly bad storm in a few spots.

The strength and track of this potential storm is really unknown at this point. It's possible it could bring Vermont a fair amount of snow or even mixed precipitation in six to seven days. It's also possible it won't be a big deal, or it could miss us entirely.

As the week goes on, the forecasts on this thing will start to get more precise, and we'll gradually get a better handle on how or if the maybe storm will affect us.

Now's The Time To Start Watching Lake Champlain Lake Level

Lake Champlain waves crash onto Route 2 in Grand Isle in April, 2011 as
the lake was rising toward a record crest a few weeks later.

The first good thaw and rain of the spring came Thursday and Friday, which meant the first good rush of water into Lake Champlain since February.

This is the time of year when we'll begin to watch the water level of Lake Champlain creep upward.

As of Friday, the start of the melt season, the lake level was more than 3.5 feet below flood stage.

It might or might not get to the flood stage of 100 feet above sea level this spring. It depends on how much rain we get, and how fast the snow melts.

Flood stage on Lake Champlain is not a bad thing at all. The ecosystem of the lake needs its annual rise and fall to maintain itself. The floods help the natural cycle of wildlife. The lake doesn't reach flood stage every year, but even if it gets close, it helps with ecology of the lake.

Us humans, of course, don't like flooding, because we build things that can get wrecked too close to the shore. If the lake barely reaches flood stage - say it rises to between 100 and 100.5 feet above sea level, that really isn't a big deal. Which is good, because spring lake levels of just over 100 feet are pretty damn common.

At that level, some roads very close to the lake get flooded, the park at Perkins Pier in Burlington goes underwater and waves can cause some shoreline erosion around summer camps and such. But such flooding is just a routine part of spring.

Once you start getting water levels above 101 feet, damage starts to occur. The worst, flooding, during the memorable spring of 2011, brought Lake Champlain water levels to a record 103.27 feet. As we remember, there was widespread, very extensive damage around the lake in Vermont, New York and Quebec.

As for this year, it doesn't look like we'll come anywhere close to those levels in 2011, unless there are unprecedented rains, even beyond the record downpours of April and May, 2011.  In other words, no worries.

It's unclear as to whether we'll even make it to the minor flood stage of 100 feet above sea level. It could, because there's still plenty of snow in the mountains and an active jet stream means we have the potential for relatively frequent rains and snows - at least through the first half of April.

On the other hand, if the storms are small and the snow melt is gradual, the lake level won't rise all that much.

As we see the lake level slowly rise in April, take it this way - it's a sign spring is really taking hold. We still might need to wait a little while for full on spring. But on a snowy early April day when you notice the lake is a bit higher than it was a week earlier, you can still have confidence warmer days are ahead.

Brief Blast Of Summer Heat, Today And Tomorrow, Then Maybe Summer Storms?

Winds blowing across the cool waters of Lake Champlain
will temper an early season hot spell today and tomorrow
along the immediate shores of the lake. 

This will be a shock to the system.

The heat blast we've been anticipating arrives today and peaks tomorrow with temperatures in a few towns reaching 90 or better in much of the Northeast, including Vermont.

We're not acclimatized to the heat, so if you have to work outdoors, like I do, try to do it early in the morning or in the evening, when it's a bit cooler.

Or do stuff right near Lake Champlain, especially along west and south facing shores.

Water temperatures are only in the 40s, and gusty southwest winds today and tomorrow will pick up that coolness and drive it onshore. I bet a few places along the southern tip of Grand Isle, for example, might not make it out of the 70s.

On the other hand, be careful about getting out on the lake. If you fall in, hypothermia can set in quickly. With expected gusty winds on the lake during this warm spell, you can capsize your boat. The water is too cold to stay in for any length of time with risk of death. Sorry to be so glum there, but that's the way it is.

By the way, us New Englanders don't do all that well with hot weather anyway, although that's probably true in a lot of places.

A recent study shows that in New England, hospital visits increase by 7.5 percent when the heat index is 95 degrees, as compared to days when the heat index is just 75 degrees.

Today's record high of 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont looks safe, as temperatures should "only" get to the mid-80s there.

Tomorrow's record high of 89 is in jeopardy, though, as temperatures should get to 90 or so, unless the wind has a more westerly component and that cool wind off Lake Champlain reaches the Burlington International Airport, where they keep track of the temperatures at the National Weather Service office.

As noted, this is going to be a windy hot spell, with gusts to 30 mph or more in many areas. Some areas, like New York's St. Lawrence Valley, could get gusts of 45 mph today and tomorrow, which could lead to some minor tree damage.

A cold front will end the heat Thursday night, but that could lead to more trouble: Scattered severe storms in a few spots;

STORMS

Yesterday was, in fact, a bad day for severe storms and tornadoes across the nation, and that trend will continue the rest of the week.

At least one person died when a tornado hit a Wisconsin mobile home park. There were at least 26 reports of tornadoes, with the most damaging ones in Wisconsin, and around Elk City, Oklahoma.

Today should be a rough day, too, especially around Iowa and Wisconsin, where there is a threat of more tornadoes.

Tornado damage near Elk City, Oklahoma Tuesday. While
things won't get nearly this bad locally, a few severe thunderstorms
are possible Thursday evening in northern New York and
northwestern Vermont. Photo by Lacie Lowry. 

Thursday will probably be even worse, with an even higher chance of tornadoes and severe storms, especially in and around Kansas and Oklahoma.

And oh yes, as mentioned, our area could get a couple severe storms Thursday evening, too. That cold front I mentioned will be approaching, and some big thunderstorms will probably get going in Ontario late Thursday evening.

They'll then march across northern New York and into the Champlain Valley in the evening, but start weakening, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward.

Not everyone will get a thunderstorm Thursday evening. They'll be scattered. And only a few areas will get severe storms. This won't be a widespread severe event. But a few towns will have damaging winds, large hail, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours

If  you're out and about in the North Country Thursday evening and enjoying the summer weather, it's best to get inside if a storm comes in.

Lake Champlain In Vermont, New York and Quebec Is Approaching Flood Stage, And That's Not A Bad Thing

Record flooding on Lake Champlain in May, 2011 devastate
these camps in Colchester, Vermont. The lake is now
approaching flood stage, but the flooding won't be anything
close to the destruction of 2011.

Lake Champlain, on the Vermont, New York and Quebec is now approaching flood stage.

Given the rather rainy forecast for the next week, it will probably reach the flood stage of 100 feet above sea level in about a week or so. At least that's my guess.

Right now, it's a little over five inches below flood stage.  

Don't worry, barely above flood stage is still far below the record high of 103.27 feet above sea level on May 6, 2011. 

Three feet of water between barely flood stage and the record high level for Lake Champlain might not seem like a big difference, but it is.

Especially if you combine the record high lake level with strong winds which induce waves, you're going to get a lot of damage, like we did in 2011. 

However, if the lake is a few inches above 100 feet above sea level, as appears likely this spring, that's not so bad at all.

Sure, when the water gets this high, a few low-lying roads near the lake might flood. Perkins Pier in Burlington gets very wet underfood. And if you own a lakeshore home or camp, you might suffer some erosion damage, especially if we get some very windy days that generate big waves.

In fact, today, Sunday, the lake level is still a few inches below flood stage, but strong south winds will probably cause some splashover issues on south facing shorelines on the northern end of the lake.

However, annual minor spring flood cycles on Lake Champlain help maintain ecosystem patterns in the lake. The drawback for the ecosystem, though is some of the floods wash pollutants caused by us humans into the lake.

Once Lake Champlain starts getting above 101 feet above sea level, damage begins to get more significant.

However, so far, it looks like the lake won't get that high. True, March and April have been wetter than normal, which has raised the lake level. And more moderate rain storms seem likely this weekend, Wednesday and maybe again Friday as we remain in a relatively active weather pattern.

In 2011, we had record rainfall during the spring. In April and May combine, there was about 16.5 inches of rain in April and May, compared to a normal of a little over six inches. I'm quite sure we won't get 16.5 inches of rain in these two spring months this year.

So, high water it is on Lake Champlain this spring, but unless something extremely surprising happens there won't be a whole lot of damage.

Worst Severe Storm Outbreak Of Summer Trashed Vermont Saturday

Hours after a line of deadly and destructive
thunderstorms tore though New York, Vermont and
New Hampshire, this isolated,. pretty storm
formed at sunset over northern New York.
This is a view from St. Albans, Vermont.  

OK, those thunderstorms Saturday afternoon were bad. Very bad.

I'm trying to get the details, but the storms might have caused two deaths across the state.

A death was reported amid falling trees in Hubbardton, and another person died of cardiac arrest at an event called Raftapalooza in Colchester.  

Raftapalooza, in which boaters and rafters gather for a day of partying in Malletts Bay, turned into chaos as rafts overturned, boats collided and tents blew away when the severe storm hit, says the Burlington Free Press.

Raftapalooza participants were warned of the approaching storm and were trying to get off the lake, with the help of the U.S. Coast Guard and local police. But there were just so many people and so much chaos with the storm, it was hard.

A 56 year old man was in cardiac arrest by 3:30 p.m. during the storms. It's unclear what happened to him during the storm.

The U.S. Coast Guard and other rescue outfits were swamped by many, many reports of boaters in distress on Lake Champlain as the storms packing wind gusts of at least 60 mph hit. I don't know why all those boaters were out there, as we knew there was a chance of severe storms hours before they actually hit.

Green Mountain Power said the storms cut electricity to more than 20,000 Vermont homes and businesses and 10,000 of them still had no electricity Sunday morning.

Motorists along Interstate 89 in central and eastern Vermont reported miles and miles of broken or uprooted trees along the sides of the major highway.

Trees and power lines came down in dozens and dozens of towns in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

The Valley News reported a tree fell through the roof of a South Royalton, Vermont home and pierced the ceiiing in a room where a 26 year old man was trying to sleep. Luckily, it turns out the guy didn't get hurt, but he got a face full of insulation and quite a scare.

Cleanup shouldn't be a problem weatherwise today as it will be warm, sunny, and storm-free.

There's a chance of more storms - some possible strong, here we go again - Monday afternoon.

Vermont Spring Flood Threat? Well..... Maybe

In Vermont, the Burlington Free Press put out an Associated Press article last week discussing what might be a rising chances of spring floods in the Green Mountain State this spring.

Severe flooding on the Lamoille River near Cambridge, Vt.
after torrential thunderstorms and rapid snowmelt in April, 2011.  

The headline was "Vermont Snows Prompt Worries Of Spring Flooding"

That's true, but at this point, it seems that chances are spring flooding won't be extreme, unless some incredibly extreme weather comes into the picture in the next few weeks

It's true the snowpack has increased in recent weeks and rivers are very, very frozen, two factors that could contribute to floods.

However, I don't expect a big spring flood disaster like the state got in 2011 unless something unprecedented happens.

The Burlington Free Press/AP article did not say we would get a flood like 2011, but understandably the piece brought the idea up. People are still spooked by that disaster, and the even-worse Tropical Storm Irene floods three or four months later in 2011.

The spring of 2011 was a special case.  It really was a worst case scenario.

The late winter snow cover that year was among the deepest ever seen in Vermont. Many feet of snow covered the ground in the beginning of March, especially in the mountains.

Worse, that 2011 snow cover had an unusually high water content. That meant there was the potential for massive amount of water to be released when the spring thaws came.

Strong winds over a badly flooded Lake Champlain
send waves crashing onto a North Hero, Vermont
highway in April, 2011.  

And that's what happened. Still, the flooding wouldn't have been too bad if the spring of 2011 was relatively dry.  Instead, it was easily the wettest spring on record in Vermont.

Early on, in April, torrential rainstorms caused river, street and basement flooding.  A storm that caused the worst tornado outbreak in United States history in late April of that year sent record warmth and very uncommon, torrential thunderstorms  into Vermont, causing severe flooding in some rivers, especially in the Lamoille River Valley.

The huge volumes of water poured into Lake Champlain, and meanwhile, the torrential rains continued to pour down from the sky during May. The result was by far the worst flood on record in Lake Champlain.

The flood also lasted a long time, well into June, due to the repeateded heavy rain. Millions of dollars in damage hit homes, camps, roads and other properties near the lake in Vermont, New York and Quebec.

Needless to say, all those bad weather spells in spring, 2011 coming all at once is pretty much impossible to replicate.

So I don't expect anything nearly as bad in 2014 in Vermont or surrounding states.

Still, there are some things to watch for, which could cause some real flooding trouble as we head into the spring.

This Year: 

The biggest flood threat this year, at least in my mind, is ice jams. Some thaws in midwinter have left jumbles of broken ice piled up in some rivers, and those piles threaten to jam up again if higher water moves them.

Camps severely damaged by record flooding
along Lake Champlain in May, 2011.  

All the rivers have also re-frozen solidly in the face of February cold spells.

Far colder than normal weather this week will extend into March, so the river ice will continue thickening, spelling more and more potential for trouble once we get the spring thaw.

Thick ice chunks make more bigger, more solid ice jams than thin, breakable ice.

If we get ice jams, chances are they might form in fairly remote areas, so they won't be that much of a problem. So what if Farmer Bill's field goes under water for a couple days in late March?

But if the ice jams form near communities, we could have a real disaster, like the ice jam flood in Montpelier in 1991. Needless to say, the ice breakups in northern New England rivers are going to have to be watched carefully this spring.

In January, the snow pack in the mountains of northern New York, and in Vermont and New Hampshire were way, way below normal, which, had the trend continued would have greatly minimized the threat of spring flooding.

But the snow cover caught up in February and it's now near normal. The water content is pretty high in that snow, too, since last week's rainstorm largely soaked into the snow rather than melting most of it.

Still the amount of snow, and the amount of water in it, is much, much less than it was in 2011.

The longer we go into March without a good thaw, the greater the chance it will turn really warm later in the spring and melt the snow suddenly, which could cause some river flooding if we get a lot of rain.

The good news is this week, only light amounts of snow will add to the snowpack, so the potential water for floods won't increase markedly (Although there are some highly uncertain hints northern New England could get a pretty good sized snowstorm next week, which would definitely add to the snowpack)

Finally, there's frozen Lake Champlain. Water levels are a little above normal now in the lake, because of some winter rainstorms. The lake is mostly iced over, so water can't evaporate from the lake that much. Of course, evaporation only would have lowered water levels only a tiny bit.

Flood stage in the lake is 100 feet, and I think there's a pretty good chance the water in Lake Champlain will reach that height as the snow melts this spring. But that's still way different than 2011, when the water got up to 103 feet above sea level.

I can't imagine the lake remotely close to that height again this spring, unless the impossible happens and we get a lot more rain this spring than the record amounts in 2011.

The bottom line around Lake Champlain and surrounding areas:  Yeah, watch for spring flooding because there's about a normal chance that could happen. But don't panic over it. There's no reason to see signs of a watery apocalypse.

Elsewhere in the nation, places like the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and the rest of northern New England could be in for some flooding this spring, given deep snow cover in those areas.

As in Vermont, it depends on how much rain falls in the spring, and how fast it finally warms up.

Here's a video I took of the severe flooding on Lake Champlain, in Colchester, in May, 2011.