Last Year Was A Soggy One For The United States

According to the National Centers For Environmental Information,
the contiguous U.S. had its second wettest year on record. Only
the Pacific Northwest, South Texas and a bit of the Southeast
were dry. 

Figures came in the other day for how the climate fared in the United States in 2019.

Early indications are that the world as a whole had its second warmest year on record in 2019.  We should get more information on that in the next few days.

Meanwhile, the United States only had its 34th warmest out of 125 years of keeping track. It was also the coolest year overall for the nation since 2014, says the National Centers for Environmental Information.  

Nothing extreme, but not totally in line with the global warming trend, either.

That's not to say parts of the United States weren't hot.  And I mean hot, big time.  North Carolina and Georgia had their hottest years on record, and other Southeastern States came close to that, ranking in the top 10.  Alaska also had by far its hottest year on record.

The real news is how wet the nation was in 2019. It was the second wettest year in the Lower 48, with only 1973 being wetter, says NCEI.  Average precipitation across the contiguous United States was 34.78. That's 4.84 inches above average, which doesn't sound like much. But when you consider that some areas will naturally be very wet and others very dry in a typical year, this departure from normal is pretty damn large.

The Northern Plains had an especially miserable year.  It was quite a bit colder than normal in 2019 and a lot wetter than normal.

South Dakota had it the worst. It was the wettest year on record there, and the 12th coldest in 125 years of record keeping.

Four other states - North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan - also had their wettest year on record in 2019, but those states weren't as cold as South Dakota, at least relative to average, notes the NCEI.   North Carolina, Georgia and Alaska had their hottest years on record. Other states in the Southeast were in the Top 10 warmest.

For the record, for the entire state of Vermont, it was the 45th warmest out of 125 years. So yeah, a bit on the warm side, but nothing breathtaking.

Vernont also only had its 47th wettest year on record, again no great shakes. But interestingly, the northern parts of the state were unusually wet, with Burlington having one of its top ten wettest years on record. Southern Vermont was much drier, which explains the lackluster rain year in the Green Mountain State.

The United States had 14 weather-related disasters that each caused at least $1 billion in damage. These included eight severe storm and tornado outbreaks, three inland floods, a hurricane (Dorian), a tropical storm (Imelda) and one wildfire.

The billion dollar events cost a total of $45 billion in damage, just over the long term, inflation adjusted average of $43.9 billion per year.

Billion dollar disasters are getting more frequent and costly. Although part of that is likely due to climate change, another large part of the problem is more people are in the way of storms and other weather events, and many of the properties damaged are more elaborate than those in the past.

I'm actually wondering if we're starting the new decade with a new billion dollar disaster already. The expected tornadoes, severe storms, ice storms and flooding for a huge section of the nation today through Sunday will almost surely come to more than $1 billion.  Part of that is just because of the huge area the storm is covering.

Of course, it remains to be seen what the coming year and decade hold, but I'm sure there will be a warming and stormier trend.

2019 In Vermont: Warm And Quite Wet

April flooding alaong Lake Champlain in Alburg threatened this mobile
home.  Vermont experienced heavy rains through much of 2019,
resulting in two disaster declarations for parts of the state
due to flooding in April and November. 

In the era of climate change, we manage an exception of sorts in 2019:  The year was not among the warmest on record here in Vermont.

It was still warmer than normal, of course.  The mean temperature for the year in Burlington, Vermont was 46.3 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees above the long term average.

A half a degree might not seem like much, but for a period lasting a year, it's a fair amount above average.

Still, this was the first year since 2015 that the yearly average temperature was not among the top ten warmest  on record. You do have to consider, though, that three years in a row, 2016 through 2018 being in the warmest list is unprecedented. That couldn't go on forever.

And, I would remind you again 2019 was warmer than average.  And by the way, eight of the ten warmest years in Burlington have happened since 1998, which echoes global climate trends.

Many climatologists say that climate change is also making our area wetter than it used to be, overall.  Sure, there has been and will be dry years in recent decades, but the overall trend is wetter.

The year that just ended followed that trend. In Burlington, total precipitation for 2019 came to 43.47 inches. That makes 2019 the seventh wettest on record.

While the trend toward wettest isn't as stark as the trend toward warmth in recent years, there is still a noticeable move toward more precipitation in Vermont.  Including 2019, five of the top ten wettest years in Burlington have happened since 1998.

A February 6 ice storm made walking in downtown Burlington,
Vermont a tricky, dangerous exercise. 

The bottom line is, if you think climate change is affecting us here in Vermont, the answer, based on the stats, seems to be yes.

These stats are a better measure of how the footprint of climate change is affecting us than more subjective measures.  Climatologists say that global warming is causing more extreme weather events.

I get the feeling that the weather and climate in Vermont has gotten more extreme than it used to be, but how do you measure that?  Sure, perhaps a storm you experienced recently might have been more intense than you're used to, but is that reality?

In any event, here are the most notable weather events in Vermont during 2019:

January 19-21: An unusually cold, heavy snow.  Burlington had a storm total of 18.6 inches.  During the storm, low level cold air drained south from Quebec, keeping temperatures below zero for the bulk of the storm. It's odd to get that much snow in such cold temperatures. Other sections of Vermont were a little warmer.

Nevertheless, a statewide thaw and heavy rains on January 24 subsequently caused ice jams and local flooding.  Overall, 41.8 inches of snow fell on Burlington during January, making the first month of 2019 the >>>> snowiest on record.

February 5: Burlington reached a daily record high of 53, exceeding the 51 set in 1991. However, freezing rain the next day caused numerous accidents in the Champlain Valley and had some people stranded on Interstate 89 for nearly four hours.

My St. Albans, Vermont driveway awash in heavy early spring snow
on March 23.

March 22-23: Parts of Vermont received a large, late season snowstorm. Burlington got only seven inches of snow, as precipitation there mixed with rain.

However, St. Albans got a foot of heavy, wet snow. The town of Averill in the Northeast Kingdom had four feet of snow on the ground immediately after the storm.  

April 15-16: Significant spring flooding hit Vermont, especially in southern and central parts of the state. A line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain hit the southern half of Vermont. That, combined with snow melt, led to the flooding.

Six counties in southern and eastern Vermont were declared major disaster areas, as there was $2 million in public infrastructure damage. Most of the damage came in the form of road washouts.

That was state highways. Municipalities had it worse. For instance, there was $1.5 million in damage to roads in just the town of Bethel, says WCAX-TV.

May 14: Late season snow hit parts of northern and high elevation parts of Vermont.  Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches, Danville got 3.5 inches, Plainfield 2.5 inches, 2 inches in Marshfield.

June 20: Flash flooding again caused some damage in parts of central and southern Vermont, though this wasn't nearly as bad as the April storm.  Orwell reported 3.25 inches of rain. Severe storms downed trees in Hartford, Rutland, Mendon and Clarendon.

Extensive damage in Sheldon, Vermont following a severe
July 30 thunderstorm. 

July 30: Damaging thunderstorms struck parts of Vermont in the strongest severe weather outbreak of the year.  Winds gusted to 76 mph in North Hero.

A microburst that traveled from the northern Champlain Islands through Franklin County pushed a Highgate mobile home off its foundation and toppled hundreds of trees. A separate severe thunderstorm caused a lot of damage in the New North End of Burlington, Colchester and Milton.  

A second round of storms on July 31 wasn't as severe, but caused a city-wide power outage in St. Albans and street fooding.

July 31: The mean temperature in Burlington for July ws 74.9 degrees, the third hottest on record. Only 2018 and 1921 were hotter.

August 17: A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved across Rutland and Windsor counties, felling trees near Lake St. Catherine, and in West Rutland, Plymouth and Windsor.  (Windsor would be struck bu a tornado four days later. See next entry.

August 21:  A tornado hit the town of Windham, Vermont. This was the first tornado in the state since 2012.  (Vermont averages one  tornado per year, so this ended a tornado drought of sorts in the Green Mountain State). The Windham tornado was an EF-1 with winds of 105 to 110 mph.  Several homes suffered window, roof and siding damage.

October 1: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain hit northern sections of the state. Golf ball sized hail fell on Massena, New York and lightning cut power to the St. Albans area. Flooding and washouts occured in some areas. Westfield picked up 3.25 inches of rain, and Wheelock got 3.16 inches.

A large uprooted willow tree on my St. Albans, Vermont property
following the big storm of October 31-November 1.

October 31-November 1:  The most destructive storm since Irene struck Vermont with heavy flooding and strong, damaging winds.  Parts of the Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers had record high crests, with serious flood damage to homes and buildings.

The entire month had been wet, saturating the soil, and then an additional two to five inches of rain fell on western and northern Vermont. East Berkshire reporte 5.26 inches of rain, with 4.85 inches in Enosburg Falls and 4.8 inches in Fletcher.

Numerous roads and culverts were washed out, and much of Vermont was declared a disaster area for the second time in 2019. High winds caused additional substantial damage to power lines, trees and some homes.

Mid-November: Record cold settled on Vermont and much of the northeastern United States. Burlington dropped to a record 9 degrees on November 13, the coldest for so early in the season. Rutland dropped to 6 degrees. An early season snowstorm just before the cold wave also dumped six to ten inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in northern  Vermont. A second push of record cold air arrived on November 16-17.

December 30: A messy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain fell across the state, most heavily in southern sections of Vermont.  Some trees and power lines came down.  Lightning and thunder were reported in Bennington and Windham counties.

June In Vermont Was A (Mostly) Cool Spot In A (Mostly) Hot World

A shower blossoms over Lake Champlain Sunday. It was a fitting
close to a wet June 

Vermont experienced another relatively cool month in June, with most places running a little below normal in temperature and definitely above normal in rainfall.

With the final numbers in for June, the Champlain Valley actually eeked out a month that was pretty much right on normal for temperature.

But away from the lake, it was definitely cooler. Montpelier, which had a mean June temperature of 60.6, was 2.2 degrees chillier than normal. St. Johnsbury was downright frigid, with a mean temperature of 62 degrees. That was 3.6 inches colder than normal for June.

Did I mention all the rain? For the most part, we didn't have any kind of record rains, though there was certainly some flash flooding across central Vermont on June 20.  Montpelier had 2.55 inches of rain that day, contributing to a month's total of 7.06. That's more than three inches wetter than normal.

Most other areas of Vermont were wetter than normal in June, too, but not to the extent that central parts of the Green Mountain State experienced.

As you might have heard on the news, Vermont is a relatively cool island in a world that is experiencing yet another summer with odd heat waves. Well, OK, the Northern Hemisphere. South of the Equator, it's winter. I get it.

We've already mentioned that heat wave in Europe, which brought the hottest temperature on record to France and other areas of the continent. Countries that set new records in the past week for the hottest June temperature include Poland, Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic and Luxembourg.

Also in late June, Florida had an intense heat wave. Yes, I know it's always hot in Florida in the summer. Miami set 10 daily record highs in June, including four consecutive ones last week. That city has been at or above 95 degrees eight times this year already. Before this year, Miami had never had more than six 95 degree days in the first half of the year, notes meteorologist John Morales on Twitter.

It was hot in the northern and central Plains this weekend, too. Heat indexes in some areas South Dakota and Iowa reached 110 degrees Saturday, thanks to temperatures in the upper 90s and dew points (a measure of humidity) in the upper 70s.

Back here in Vermont, we're setting up for quite a warm week, but we won't be seeing any record breaking heat. Each day through Friday will be in the 80s, and some spots could get into the 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

Flooding Worries Throughout Northeast. And Snow Again! (Don't Worry, Not in Vermont)

Areas in yellow might get enough rain to cause flooding today
and tonight. Any flooding in Vermont is likely to be
localized and not extreme. Still, don't drive through
flooded roads!

UPDATE 1 PM THURSDAY

The special weather statement from this morning that told us Vermont could end up dealing with a little flooding today has been upgraded to a flash flood watch.

The watch means that rapidly developing floods have the potential to occur this afternoon and evening.

Rainfall is even heavier than anticipated, with a large zone of heavy rain over central and northern Vermont as of 1 p.m.

We have several hours at least of occasionally heavy rain to get to. Some places in the North Country have already gotten nearly an inch of rain, and another one to three inches is on the way.

Where the heaviest downpours set up, flash flooding could easily occur. In the general area of moderate to heavy rain coming through, there are pockets of torrential downpours that could lead to flash flooding just about anywhere, especially north of Route 4.

Local flash flood warnings, meaning flooding is already happening or imminent, have been issued in parts of New York, with these warnings popping up further and further east as the rain continues in that direction.

Not far from the Vermont border, a flash flood warning is up for areas around Lake George and Bolton Landing, New York.

Don't drive into flooded roadways and seek higher ground if you get a flash flood warning or see water rising quickly.

Not everybody will get a flood out of this and it's not another Hurricane Irene, but still, take it very seriously.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The wet, wet year of 2019 continues on pace today, with a widespread zone stretching from Ohio and West Virginia on up through most of New England under the gun with a flood threat today and tonight.

Here in Vermont, where it's been a little drier lately than surrounding areas, the flooding, if it occurs, won't be as widespread or deep as elsewhere.

The larger rivers like the Winooski and Lamoille will probably rise sharply, but not go over their banks.

Since there will likely be locally heavy rain, there might be some flooding of small streams and creeks and in fields. Of biggest concern to most of us will be the risk of water ponding on roads and local urban sreet flooding.

And there's the risk that, as is so often the case with heavy rain in Vermont, sewage treatment plants will be overwhelmed, sending pollution into the rivers and ultimately Lake Champlain. Too many sewage treatment plants take waste from both buildings and storm sewers. When gushes of water go into street drains in heavy rains, that's where the trouble starts. Pretty icky, huh?

Generally speaking, most of us will get one to two inches of rain and most of that will come down between noon and midnight. The reason that there might be some local flooding is that in some places, there might be a torrential downpour thrown in that would dump a lot of rain in an hour or two.

It will dry out pretty quickly Friday, with just scattered light showers amid (temporarily) cooler conditions.

FLOODING WORSE ELSEWHERE

Many areas outside of Vermont, especially to our south and west, stand a greater chance of flooding than we do. And that flooding in many cases would be much worse than the minor stuff we expect here.

Vermont, especially the north, have been far enough away from a stalled weather front this week to avoid much rain. But that front has been stalled to our south, dumping heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic States and westward into Ohio and Indiana.

Flooding is already taking place this morning in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Many of these areas are at risk for more heavy rain today. Not good.

Already this morning, there has been flooding in and around Philadelphia and adjacent New Jersey, with people stranded on at least one highway because of flooding. I-295 in Bellmawr, New Jersey was blocked by flooding, backing up traffic for miles.

During the course of the week, the relentless rains will continue in places like Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas, where it has been basically pouring since March. The rain won't be as extreme as it was earlier this spring, but it will be enough to worsen or cause new flooding in some spots in that region.

SNOW AGAIN!?!?!

OK, the Summer Solstice is tomorrow, but somebody didn't get the memo in the northern Rockies.

Winter weather advisories, of all things, are up some high elevations above 5,000 feet in Idaho and Montana. Roads through mountain passes might get two to six inches of snow tonight, with six to 13 inches higher up in the mountains. Yikes!

May Was Second Wettest On Record As The Rains Keep Pouring Down

Green areas are parts of the nation that were wetter than normal
in May. The darker the green the greater departure from
nornal rainfall. 

It seems as if every day, floods capture the attention in weather news.

Yesterday, it was Louisiana and the Oklahoma City metro area that suffered through damaging, dangerous floods. It's just been a continuous drumbeat for it seems like a couple years at least now.

As if to prove that point, NOAA's National Centers for Climate Information released their summary for the month of May, which showed the month was the second wettest on record for the United States.

If you average it out. 4.41 inches of precipitation fell across the nation. Only May, 2015 was wetter and just barely - that month four years ago had 0.03 inches more rain than May, 2019.

The only dry areas of the nation during May, 2019 were in parts of the Southeast, western Washington and along the immediate Canadian border in Idaho, Montana and North Dakota.

Three states - Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri - had their wettest Mays on record. Twelve other states had one of their top 10 wettest Mays. (Here in Vermont it was the 18th wettest May out of the past 125 years, so pretty soggy, but not record breaking.)

Also, the 12 month period ending on May 31 was the wettest such stretch on record. The period ending April 30, 2019 (this year) was the previous wet record holder for a 12-month period. Records go back 125 years.

During that 12 month period, an average of 37.68 inches of precipitation fell across the nation, which is a whopping 7.73 inches above average.

This wetness is consistent with climate change. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor that cooler air. That added water vapor in the toastier air leaves the potential for heavier downpours.

The atmosphere in general has gotten warmer across the globe. It's interesting to note that six of the top ten wettest 12 month periods in the United States have been since 2016 and all of them have been since 1974. Remember, these records go back to 1895.

That said, month to month precipitation in the United States is highly variable. With or without climate change, a given month for the nation can be very wet, very dry, or just average.

But the overall trend has for wetter months overall, especially in the eastern half of the United States.

It's hard to say whether the rest of the year will be wet, but the first half of June is not proving to be particularly encouraging.

There were those floods yesteday in parts of the South. A slow moving collection of weather systems threatens quite a bit of flooding and heavy rain over the next several days in the Southeast. Many areas from Florida to Virginia could see five or more inches of rain over the next seven days.

Long range forecasts into the third week of June suggest that larger areas of the United States will be wetter than normal compared to those that will be drier than normal. (For the record, Vermont is forecast to be overall cooler and wetter than normal into the third week of June, despite an expected warm, dry weekend coming up.)  

Flash flooding in Tulsa, OK
Thursday. Photo via Twitter by
Jonathan Torrio

This next part will get confusing, but bear with me. The overall temperature for the nation as a whole was a little cooler than average during May.

This, after I just got done explaining that a warmer atmosphere holds more water, so that might help explain why we had such a wet national month.

Storms are at least in part a clash between warm and cold air. Although final numbers aren't in yet, May, 2019 was almost certainly in the top 10 warmest for the world as a whole. Warmer air feeding into the storms that affected the nation might have increased rainfall somewhat. Some of this warm air came from outside the nation.

And note the heaviest precipitation was in the middle of country. The Southeast was warmer than average in May, and that's where much of the humid air was coming from to feed the precipitation in those Midwest storms.

However, parts of the United States was on the cool side, bucking a worldwide trend in May, because the weather patterns during the month favored cool air flowing into the middle of the nation.

Wet, Wet, Wet: Incredible Rainfall In Nation's Middle; Vermont Soggy, Too

A sad aerial view of farmland in Illinois, near the Indiana border. Image
via Twitter by Chad Colby @TheChadColby

I've begun my annual late spring/early summer sabbatical in Yankton, South Dakota and I was very dismayed by the landscape as our plane began its descent Friday afternoon into the airport in Sioux Falls.

It was May 31, and most of the expansive fields beneath us hadn't been planted yet. Too wet. The Big Sioux River had also spread out into rich farmland, forming a long lake near Sioux Falls. The Big Sioux River is now way, way too big.

During the 90 minute car drive to Yankton, many fields looked like marshes. Rural side roads were closed either by mud, or the fact that the flooding Big Sioux, Little Sioux, Vermillion, James and other rivers had submerged all the low water crossings.

This was all a testament to how incredibly wet it has been in the middle of the nation. Shockingly, this swampy scene in southeastern South Dakota is nothing compared to incredible rains in floods just to the south, in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and other states.

Yes, it's been quite wet in my home state of Vermont (more on that further down in this post) but the never-ending rains are just overwhelming for millions of people in the Plains and Midwest.

MIDWEST SWAMPED

The Weather Channel says that parts of southern Kansas picked up about 60 percent of their normal annual rainfall in May alone.

Kansas City had more than a foot of rain, good enough to make this May the wettest on record and the third wettest of any month. Bartlesville, Oklahoma had more than 15 inches of rain during the month. Some pockets of northeastern Oklahoma reported more than 20 inches of rain during May.

As you've seen on the news, record, devastating flooding continues, especially along the Arkansas River in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

NPR reports that Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson said the Arkansas River flood is costing the state $23 million a day. The flooding will go on for at least a week - if it doesn't rain. Unfortunately, the area around the river can expect another one to five inches of rain over the next week, with locally higher amounts.

Levees built 60 years ago along the Arkansas River were not designed to withstand a flood this high, and lasting this long. The longer the flooding lasts, the more water can seep into the levees, which can cause failures. The Arkansas River has been high since March.

Even worse for the overall national economy, much of the Mississippi River has been flooding since March. It's the longest flood on the mighty river since 1927. When this river floods, barges can't move along the river. Farmers who actually have fields dry enough to plant can't because critical seeds, fertilizers and other supplies that normally come up on barges along the Mississippi can't, reports Fox News. 

The Mississippi has been blocked by flooding so that locks and dams don't work between St. Paul, Minnesota and St. Louis, Missouri. "We have never had the river closed for this long in a single year, Tom Heinfold, chief of operations for the U.S Army Corps of Engineers told Fox News.

WET VERMONT

Storm clouds gather over Lake Champlain near St. Albans on
May 10. It was a wet day in a very wet month. 

The situation has not been nearly as desperate in Vermont. There's really no flooding of note during May.

Lake Champlain had been in minor flood stage all month, just yesterday finally falling below flood stage for the first time since April 20. It was the second longest flood recorded on Lake Champlain. Only the epic flood of 2011 lasted longer.

The Lake Champlain flood sustained itself through May because of the incessant rains in Vermont and New York. Burlington had 5.15 inches of rain during May, which is 1.7 inches above normal. That's not any kind of record, but the rain was consistent. Measurable rain fell on 19 days during the month.

It was also cool and cloudy, which helped prevent evaportation. The mean temperature in Burlington ws 54.9 degrees, which was 1.4 degrees cooler than normal.

It was even wetter and colder in eastern Vermont. Montpelier had 5.75 inches of rain which is 2.38 inches above normal. Temperatures in the Capital City ran three degrees colder than normal for May.

St. Johnsbury takes the prize for a miserable May. They had 7.04 inches of rain in May, which is 3.68 inches above normal and has to make this May among the top 10 wettest on record there. St. Johnsbury also had a bone chilling May, with the temperature running four degrees colder than normal.

CLIMATE CHANGE FOOTPRINTS

The nation's wet weather is consistent with climate change. Yes, a hotter world can make droughts worse, because if there are no  handy storms around to drop rain, the higher temperatures encourage evaporation, drying things out faster.

(As an example, northwestern Vermont had a very humid summer last year, but had few storm systems to interact with the humidity. The summer was also record hot, so the combination of heat and missed opportunities for storms made us temporarily fall into a drought.)

But hotter air can hold more moisture. If there are storms that create lift in the atmosphere, you're going to get precipitation. If there's more "precipitable water" as they call it in the air because of a warming climate, it will rain harder.

As NPR reports: "According to the most recent National Climate Assessment, 'The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events across the United States have increased,' especially in the northern and central parts of the country.

That means, although this flood is breaking records across the central U.S., it may not be the last time officials, in infrastructure, will be forced to deal with a disaster of this magnitude. On the Arkansas River, levees were built more than 60 years ago in most cases, and were not necessarily designed to withstand the kind of constant onslaught of high water that comes with a multiweek flood."

This flood is all part of a recent trend, we can say that. Last year was the wettest on record for the nation as a whole. This year, at least so far, is giving that 2018 wet record a run for its money.

North Carolina Can't Catch A Break From Flooding

It rained wicked hard in North Carolina Friday and Friday night

This just days after it snowed really hard in interior North Carolina and poured rain along the coast, one to three inches of rain came down on the state's saturated soil.  Coastal Wilmington got 1.84 inches of rain while snow was burying communities further west and north last weekend.

Flooding in Lumberton, North Carolina from Hurricane Florence
this past September.

Rivers are flooding again in North Carolina this morning. At least the flooding isn't as bed as the epic, record flooding from Hurricane Florence earlier this year.

I mentioned the other day that many places in the eastern half of the nation are experiencing their rainiest or close to rainiest year on record this year. Ground zero is North Carolina.

By the time you read this, Wilmington, North Carolina will have had 100 inches of rain for the year. By midnight last night, Wilmington was up to 99.72 inches. Another 0.08 fell in the five hours ending at 5 a.m. and a slug of moderate to heavy rain was on the city's doorstep.

The city will beat its previous record for wettest year by at least 16 inches of precipitation. In the rare cases when a city beats its annual rainfall record, it's usually by an inch or two at the most.

Each of the past five years in North Carolina have been wet. They could use a break.

According to some of the flood warnings up this morning in North Carolina, some houses that were devastated by flooding from Florence are going to hit again. That is if any of those houses still exist after Florence.

Flooding is pretty widespread this month in the Southeast. Last weekend, up to 11 inches of rain fell on southern Georgia and northern Florida, flooding homes in Waycross, Georgia and other cities.

High water was also reported around Charleston, South Carolina.

Up here in Vermont, the worst of the storms continue to miss us in December, much as they have for a lot of 2018. The southeastern storm will clip us a bit Sunday night, dropping a very modest amount of rain and snow. A little more snow will come with a cold front Monday and Monday night, but again, it won't be a huge deal.

We'll finish the year a little wetter than normal, but nothing record breaking, nothing spectacular.

It's Been Wet, Will Stay Wet In Vermont

After yet another dark, cloudy and rainy day a bit of sun
lit up some of the clouds just before sunset Tuesday
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

As I write this at 8:30 a.m. this Wednesday, there is, for once, no mention of precipitation in the forecast today.

Never mind that a rain shower is ongoing as I write this, but what are you going to do?

After a dry summer, it's been quite a wet fall. Not record-breaking mind you, but wet.

That trend will continue. Being November, chances keep increasing that the precipitation will come down as snow in many spots.

Just six days into November, Burlington, Vermont has already had three-quarters of its normal allotment of precipitation for the entire month. And more storms are lined up to get us.

It makes you sort of wonder if Guns N Roses had Vermont in mind when they created their hit "November Rain."

The next one comes Friday into Friday night. It looks like it will be almost entirely rain in the valleys, with some mix in the mountains. I don't think the storm will be a blockbuster, but it might be good for another half inch of rain or so.

The Friday storm will introduce us to that wintry, chilly weather regime I talked about yesterday. High temperatures over the weekend here in Vermont will only be in the 30s.

We have to really watch a system coming along for about next Tuesday. Forecast models are all over the place with this one, which is normal. Forecasts are usually pretty uncertain nearly a week away from any given storm.

However, this storm has some potential to be pretty substantial, depending on its track. And if it goes along the New England coast, we could be in for an early season snowstorm. That's not a guarantee, of course, but it's something to keep an eye on.

November has never been known for its super pleasant weather in Vermont anyway so we should be used to this.

Welcome May Sunny Spell Helps Erase Memory Of Hopelessly Gloomy April

The Intervale in Burlington, Vermont is greening up very fast under
sunny skies and warm termperatures.

You've surely noticed here in Vermont we're in the middle of a spell of sunny, gorgeous spring weather.

All the plants and trees are falling over themselves to turn green in the sunshine, as if they were just chomping at the bit to put on their annual spring show. We love it. 

The sun and the warmth and our newly lush green surroundings are making us forget what a gloomy, wet April we had.

It was, at least in my opinion, one of the worst Vermont Aprils in the weather department I can remember. And to think we didn't have it so bad -- it was even worse in the Upper Midwest.  They seemed to have constant snow and bitter cold. We here in the Northeast just endured constant clouds, rain and wet snow.

The snow that seemed to fall so frequently in April got most of the attention, but the almost constant precipitation, clouds and gloom really told the tale.

It was among the wettest Aprils in Vermont weather history. Burlington was a relative "dry" spot with 4.84 inches of rain and melted snow. That made if the 6th wettest April on record.

Other communities in Vermont were even wetter. Montpelier had 5.61 inches of precipitation, St Johnsbury had 5.03 inches.

These weren't short, sharp bursts of rain that caused this. Which is probably a good thing, in that the slow, steady drizzles and snows that seemed to last all month meant that there was little flooding. Everything stayed soggy, but there were not big blasts of water coming off the mountains to flood lowlands.

The steady rains were enough to help bring Lake Champlain to flood stage. At last report, it was just above the 100 foot level that signifies flooding. A flood warning is up along the lake until the water goes back down. That could be soon, if it stays dry.

The April gloom was tedious. Burlington had 19 days with measurable precipitation during April. I counted only four or five days during the month that could be characterized as sunny.

The next chance for any rain in Vermont is on Thursday, mostly in the afternoon and night as a cold front approaches and passes. I don't think there will be a huge amount of rain with this one. More rain is likely Saturday and  Sunday. The weekend, which sucks. But I don't think it will rain the entire weekend. We'll probably just have to keep dodging showers.

One Of Wettest Aprils To End With Wet Start To May

Yep, that's snow! Webcam image this morning at dawn from the
Nashville section of Jericho, Vermont. 

As of early this morning, it was still raining a bit in Burlington, Vermont, and it's sodden out there.

By 5 a.m. this morning, Burlington has had 4.74 inches of rain and melted snow in April, enough for it to be the sixth wettest April on record.

I don't think we'll get enough new rain to take the #5 spot, and we certainly won't break the all-time April record of 7.88 inches set in 2011.

There was even some snow to talk about yesterday and last night in some of the high elevations of Vermont and especially New York, where the cold air from aloft was the toughest and strongest.

Not many reports have trickled in yet, but I do know it snowed all day yesterday in Saranac Lake, New York. A storm total of 5 inches was reported early this morning from an 1,100-foot elevation location in Marshfield, Vermont.

Early morning webcam images across Vermont show widespread snow cover above an elevation of 900 feet or so. It looks like about an inch or more in the Jericho area, and a couple inches around Brookfield, judging from the webcam images.

I saw a scrim of snow on the top of the hill in back of my house in St. Albans, Vermont, so I probably got some snow mixed with rain at my place while I slept last night. But I'll just say that since I didn't see it, it didn't happen.

Don't worry, the weather will turn markedly warmer this week.

Today will gradually get better. Light rain and drizzle this morning (with some higher elevations snow) will slowly taper off. It will still be chilly for the season this afternoon --- highs 48 to 55 across  most of the North Country, but that's a bit better than yesterday.

Traffic camera along Interstate 89 in Brookfield shows a snowy morning.

A few scattered light showers might linger into tonight and early Tuesday. But there will be increasing sun Tuesday with a dramatic warmup --- well into the 60s.

Wednesday, the peak of "heat wave" could bring us the first 80 degree reading of the season.

However, wet times are not over for us. A series of weather disturbances, then cold fronts will come in Thursday and Friday with showers and possible thunderstorms.

It won't rain all the time either day, but it will turn humid. (Yes, another sign of spring, the word "humid" has popped up again.)

Thursday's temperatures will probably be in the low 70s and the air will have a muggy feel to it. Some of the showers Thursday and Friday might come down quite hard. That means some areas could get another inch or more of rain at the end of the week.

I guess we don't have to worry about drought wilting our early season blooms. Of course, I can't predict how wet or dry the overall summer will be. We'll have to wait on that.

With all this rain, Lake Champlain is rising toward its 100 foot minor flood stage. As of late yesterday, it had another foot to go to reach that level. No guanantees that it will, but there's certainly a good chance of it.

The weather pattern does look pretty active for the first half of May but I can't tease out specifics of any storms beyond this coming week.

Back To The Wet In Vermont, Northeast

A cloudy early morning this Memorial Day over St. Albans,
Vermont signals the start of another extended rainy period .

I flew in to Burlington, Vermont late last night and am now home from a trip to the Midwest.

Apparently, I missed some pretty nice weather in Vermont Saturday and Sunday (though the weather was pretty decent where I was in South Dakota, too.)  

Now, it's back to the wet.

We're not breaking any kind of rainfall records this month, but precipitation has been consistent, and above normal this May.

So let's close out the month of May with another wet spell, shall we?

As of early this Memorial Day morning, a decent slug of rain was over Ontario, New York, Pennsylvania and far southern New England and it was headed this way.

If you missed your chance for outdoor parties, barbecues and such Saturday and Sunday, you're out of luck.

Today looks pretty wet, especially late this morning and afternoon, though precipitation might taper off this evening.  Don't worry about anything too terribly heavy. It'll be a soaker, but not a flood, that's for sure.

Unlike yesterday, today, under the clouds and rain, look to be fairly cool and raw for this time of year.  Temperatures were in the 50s to low 60s at dawn. Readings might go up a few degrees before the rain sets it, but then it'll settle down to near 60 degrees. Rather chilly.

We'll stay under the threat of rain through Wednesday.  An upper level low pressure system will get humg up near us, mostly to our northwest. That will swing some troughs of low pressure - really mini-cold fronts across our region Tuesday and Wednesday.

The strong spring sun, comhined with instabillity from these mini cold fronts will set the stage for lots of showers Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in the afternoons.

Especially if morning sun breaks through both days, we'll probably see some thunderstorms as well. While most places will have nothing severe, a couple thunderstorms both days could hustle up some gusty winds and small hail across Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont and other area of the northeastern United Sttes under a margional risk of severe storms both Tuesdayt and Wednesday.

Beyond that, I don't see signs of any summer heat coming our way anytime soon.

Vermont's Cool Streak Extended Through April

Technically, anyway, April in Burlington, Vermont was on the cool side.

Snow on the ground in St. Albans, Vermont on April 16.
The month that just ended was a little cooler than average. 

The mean temperature for the month was 44.6 degrees or 0.2 degrees cooler than normal.

Essentially, that's normal, but if you want to get strict about it, April was the sixth consecutive cooler than average month in Burlington. We've been in kind of a temperature rut. You have to go back to October to find a warmer than average month

At least April was nothing like March, which for Vermont as a whole was the coldest on record. We actually pulled off some spring like days in April, which is a good thing.

April showers were abudant this year. The month's rainfall came to 3.66 inches, which was 0.84 inches wetter than average.

That's not extreme, though. The record wet April, in 2011, had Burlington drowning in 7.88 inches of precipitation.

There's no telling if May will break the cool streak. Today will be on the warm side, but the next few days after that look to be on the chilly, damp side.

But at least it won't go below zero again until November at the earliest