It's Classic Fourth of July Vermont Weather -- Hot!

A gorgeous summer day last year in Burlington, Vermont. This
year's Fourth of July weather - today - will be about the same.

"Hot as the Fourth of July," is a timeworn cliche, but hey, cliches are often true, right?

Such as the case today, the Fourth of July 2019, as we in Vermont are setting up for a hot one. Great beach weather. Great barbecue weather. Great fireworks watching weather. What's not to love?

Well, it will be a bit too hot for some people today.  (I've become a hot weather wimp in my old age, for instance.)

Everybody in Vermont, except those on the tippy tops of the tallest mountains will see high temperatures in the 80s today. Warmer valleys (I see you, Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys!) will have a great shot of getting to 90 degrees or even a little above that this afternoon. Thank goodness humidity levels will only be moderate. Not super dry, mind you, but not awful, either.

Plus the sun will be out most if not all of the day. Bottom line: The Fourth of July this year is a classic in the weather department.

The time around the Fourth of July has had its extreme weather. Two of Vermont's most historic, biggest heat waves happened on and around July 4.

In 1911, Vermont had it's hottest day on record on July 4, reaching 105 degrees at Vernon, in the southeastern corner of the state. Neighboring New Hampshire also had its hottest day on record on July 4, 1911, reaching 106 degrees.

Burlington, Vermont, was relatively "chilly" on July 4, 1911, only reaching a high of 98 degrees (ugh!) But that was down from 100 degrees the day before.

The 1911 heat wave was long, with a break in the middle of it. According to the Vermont Weather Book, Burlington's daily high temperature from July 1 to 12 was as follows: 86. 94, 100, 98, 98, 91, 75, 88, 95, 96, 96, and finally on July 12, a cooling trend started when the high only reached 86 degrees.

It's possible the 1911 heat wave was New England's worst weather disaster. Some estimates are that 2,000 New Englanders died in those pre-air conditioning days.

The other historic July 4 heat wave happened just last year, in 2018. On July 4 last year, Burlington reached 95 degrees on the Fourth of July, so the record for the date from 1911 still stands.

But the heat wave that lasted from June 30 through July 5 last year was among the most extreme on record. The low temperature in Burlington on July 2 was 80 degrees, the hottest "low" temperature on record. Burlington also suffered through six consecutive days with highs of 93 degrees or more.

Not to be morbid again, but the July, 2018 heat wave was Vermont's worst weather disaster since the Hurricane Irene floods of 2011.  The heat caused little physical damage but caused at least six deaths in the Green Mountain State.  (The link has four deaths, but two more fatalities were confirmed later.)

The 2018 Fourth of July  heat wave was part of what was to become the hottest summer on record in Burlington.

Sometimes, Mother Nature creates her own fireworks display on the Fourth of July weekend. We've had some doozies in Vermont.

Some examples: In 1999, a derecho formed in North Dakota on July 4, and sped rapidly over a long distance through Minnesota, upper Michigan, Ontario, Quebec and on into northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine in the pre-dawn hours of July 5.

The path of a long lasting derecho on the Fourth of July
weekend, 1999. It caused one death in the Northeast
Kingdom. No storms anylike this in the forecast today!

Winds in that 1999 Derecho reached 90 mph Colbrook, New Hampshire. In Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, one person died and others were injured as the derecho winds slammed through crowded camp grounds.

In 2012, Vermont was hit by more very severe storms on the Fourth of July. The day was classically hot, reaching 90 degrees in Burlington. But thunderstorms quickly erupted that afternoon and evening.

The first round headed southeastward across eastern Vermont in the afternoon, causing lots of tree damage. A second round moved southeastward through the Champlain Valley, with winds gusting to 70 mph in Colchester and 63 mph in South Burlington.

There was, predictably a lot of wind damage, mostly to trees. There was also extensive street flooding in Burlington, causing damage to several buildings. (See the video I took of this storm in Burlington. The rain amid the wind was so heavy that visibility was almost zero.)

On this Fourth of July, 2019, there is a slightest chance of an isolated shower or storm, but don't hold your breath.  The air is too stable to support much more than some cumulus clouds.

Here's a video of the July, 2012 wildness in Burlington. I know it looks like I was in a weird spot, but I was trying to shoot the video from a protected area behind buildings and tanks. Love the close lightning strike about two minutes in:

Great Stretch Of Weather Ending In Rain, Dangerous Heat, Storms

Will the upcoming heat wave be over in time for next Tuesday's fireworks
display in Burlington, Vermont? Will there be thunderstorms around
to interfere? Those questions are as of yet unanswered. 

I've always said that great weather in Vermont never goes unpunished. There's always karma, in a negative way.

So it goes this month. June, 2018 has for the most part been lovely in Vermont.

Now we pay the price. First, some drenching rains (which we actually need so that's not too bad.) Then we have to deal with that heat wave we've been anticipating. Then there's the possibility of strong storms after that.

Add in some uncertainties to the forecast going into the Fourth of July holiday and you will really long for days like yesterday. (70s, sunshine and low humidity.)

First the rains. It turns out the storm system coming in for later today and especially tonight is juicier than many people first thought it would be. Which means it looks like we'll get a boatload of rain overnight and into Thursday morning.

Many of us will have gotten close to an inch of rain by noon Thursday, with some areas getting more than that. You'll hear the roar of the rain on your roof tonight, I bet. Although some might find the rain unpleasant, at least a lot of it is coming at night so as not to disrupt outdoor plans too much.

We also need the rain, at least in parts of Vermont. In northern Vermont, it has barely rained at all since the downpours of June 18. In southern Vermont, there were some pretty good drenchers this past Saturday, but more is needed.

Also, there won't be enough rain to cause any real flooding concerns overnight and Thursday.

Next up is that heat. The forecast hasn't changed from what I outlined yesterday. You'll notice Friday will definitely be warmer and more humid. That's just a foretaste.

The blowtorch arrives Saturday with temperatures up in the 90s. Sunday still looks like the worst day, with temperatures at least well into the 90s with oppressive humidity. The official forecast from the National Weather Service gives Burlington a high temperature of 96 degrees Sunday, but it's still possible it could hit 100 degrees.

The few times it has been 100 in Burlington, the heat has come during periods of dry weather. It's easier for it to get hotter if there's not as much moisture around. It's possible tonight's rain will keep the actual temperature down a bit, though it will raise the humidity during the heat wave. So either way it will be awful.

On the other hand, I asked the South Burlington National Weather Service office about this, and they said Thursday's rains will have largely dried up by Sunday, so it could still reach 100 degrees for only the fifth time on record in the Queen City.

In any event, we're a lock Sunday for heat indexes around 105 degrees, or possibly hotter.

Big heat waves, especially if they're accompanied by high humidity, can trigger fast developing, strong to severe thunderstorms. All you need is a little trigger, like a subtle area of cooler air aloft that can provide lift to the atmosphere.

On Saturday and Sunday, it looks like there will be no such triggers, so I don't expect any thunderstorms those days. (Maybe later in the day Sunday there might be something over northwest New York or Quebec, but don't count on it.)

On Monday, a cold front edging into Ontario and Quebec could be enough to trigger afternoon and evening thunderstorms. It will still be very hot. Maybe a couple degrees cooler than Sunday. But the humidity will be even higher on Monday than Sunday, so it will feel just as bad.

Then more uncertainty arises. By Tuesday, us Vermonters will be very, very hungry for that cold front. Forecasters still don't know when, or even if, the front will make it through.  It'll be nearby on Tuesday, so showers and storms look pretty likely, but the timing and extent of those storms is anybody's guess at this point.

Tuesday is July 3, which is Burlington's big fireworks night. You'll want to keep an eye out for future forecasts if you're going to that event.

On Wednesday, July 4, nobody yet knows where that cold front will be. If we're lucky, it will have moved through, and the sun will come out amid somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. That's only if we're lucky. The front might still be hung up over or near us, which would keep conditions potentially stormy.

If we're really unlucky, the front will stall just to our north, so we'd still be in the heat and humidity, and the risk of strong storms would remain.

Don't make definitive Fourth of July plans yet if those plans depend upon the weather. Because what will happen that day in the meteorology department is anybody's guess.

They're Still Skiing In The Mountains of California

In this image from the Sacramento Bee, patriotic skiers
enjoy the slopes at Squaw Valley,  California on July 4.

It's the middle of summer, and some enthusiastic fellow Vermonters are probably already comparison shopping for season ski passes for 2017-18.

In California, the 2016-17 ski season still hasn't entirely ended.

At Squaw Valley, a Sierra Nevada ski areas, people hit the slopes on a sunny July 4th holiday wearing shorts and bathing suits. And enjoying snow that was still pretty deep in spots.

Squaw Valley received 60 feet of snow over the winter, which was among the snowiest on record.

Despite some big heat waves, the snow hasn't entirely disappeared.   The Mammoth Mountain ski resort in California and Mount Bachelor in Oregon were also open for skiing on July 4.

There's no word on when any of these ski areas will close for the (brief) summer. I'm sure a few dreamers would like the resorts to stay open until the snow starts falling again in the fall, and then continue on through next winter.

That's not realistic, as the snow is melting fast and there's plenty of summer left to go.

But still: Skiing on the Fourth of July must have really been a trip. Watch the video below for a taste

of it.

More Arthur: And Yesterday Wild; Today Will Be Wet

As expected, there were some wild thunderstorms across the Northeast on Wednesday.

Hurricane Arthur yesterday. It's expected
to hit coastal North Carolina early Friday.  

Most of the worst storms extended from eastern and northern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, western Massachusetts, and western and southern New Hampshire and into Maine.

There were even a couple tornado warnings in Pennsylvania and New York, but I know of no confirmed tornadoes so far.

In northwestern New Hampshire, my weather watching bestie Ellen reported widespread storm damage around Littleton, with many trees down, including one on a house.

Interstate 93 southbound near Littleton was closed for a time due to fallen trees. Also, seven firefighters battling a structure blaze in Guilford, Vermont were injured when lightning struck close to them. Looks like they're going to be OK, thank goodness.

In New Hampshire 80 people had to be rescued from a campground after high water cut them off.

Thunderstorms today in the Northeast might not be as destructive as yesterday's but still, severe weather is expected. So are torrential downpours, which could cause renewed flash flooding.

More on that in a moment, but first, everybody wants to know about Hurricane Arthur.

Yep, it's a hurricane now. The National Hurricane Center upgraded Arthur from a tropical storm to a hurricane early this morning after its sustained winds reached 75 mph. It'll probably get a little stronger as it approaches coastal North Carolina.

Arthur will be close to North Carolina early Friday morning. Parts of the Outer Banks have been evacuated, and other sections of the coast are battening down for winds of up to 85 mph and storm surge flooding.

It looks like Cape Cod and the Islands, and southeastern Massachusetts will feel the effects of Arthur late Friday night and Saturday morning as it passes just southeast of New England. Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds are possible in those areas of Massachusetts as Arthur passes.

Before that, we have more storms to contend with. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there is a threat of severe storms today from southern Maine, through most of New Hampshire and Vermont, southwestern New England, eastern and southern New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and on down into Virginia.

While there will certainly be damaging wind gusts from storms in this zone today, I think flooding is a bigger concern. Some areas got soaked by storms yesterday, and today's storms will really pour the water down, given the tropical air that's over the Northeast.

Flash flood watches are up in most of the areas that are under the risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

I bet we'll see reports of cars suddenly stranded in high water in streets, local creek flooding, that type of thing.

Heavy rain will continue in areas tonight, especially closer to the coast.

The good news is the forecast for the rest of the weekend remains solid. It looks like Friday afternoon will be nice in the interior Northeast, and coastal areas will join in the fine weather Saturday and Sunday.

Arthur, Severe Storms, Floods And Your (Possibly Nice) Fourth Of July

Tropical Storm Arthur off the coast of Florida at
8 a.m. Wednesday.  

The Fourth of July holiday weather still looks like it will get off to a rocky start in parts of the East, but the weekend itself looks salvageable.  

In fact, the worst of the weather in most places looks like it will be in the run-up to the holiday: Today, tomorrow, and the first part of the Fourth of July.

(For my fellow Vermonters, this applies to you, too)

All eyes are on Tropical Storm Arthur, of course. The biggest problem still looks like it will be in eastern North Carolina.

The Outer Banks and other coastal areas of North Carolina are packed to the gills with tourists, and businesses there were anticipating a huge Fourth of July weekend.

Now, however, there's a hurricane watch up for eastern North Carolina and tropical storm watches up for areas just to the south and north.

Arthur, which had peak sustained winds of 60 mph as of Wednesday morning, is still expected to strengthen, move north and pass very close to the tip of Cape Hatteras early Friday morning. Those areas can expect hurricane force winds of up to 85 mph, torrential rains and high tides.

Some people will certainly be evacuated ahead of the Fourth of July weekend, so that ruins some vacation plans. Which is better than drowning in a storm surge if you stay behind, however, so there's that.

Arthur will then head northeast, and it's effects might brush Cape Cod and the islands Friday night and Saturday with strong winds and heavy rains, but Arthur's harshness will depend upon how close it comes to the coast.

Of course Arthur isn't the only problem the East Coast is facing. First of all, it's hot. Burlington, Vermont, for instance, had its first 90 degree summer day yesterday, reaching 92 degrees. That's just four degrees shy of a record high.

Heat advisories are up today for much of New Jersey and the area around Washington DC.

A cold front is still pressing into that zone of hot, humid weather. That situation is still expected to spark severe thunderstorms today.

Already there have been a few. A handful of warnings and damage reports came from  New York State yesterday. In fact, a roof of a house was blown off southeast of Syracuse.  Also, a quick moving batch of strong storms zipped through central Vermont just before dawn today.

The real action will start this afternoon. The sun's heat, combining with the humidity and the instability in the atmosphere caused by that approaching cold front, will trigger severe storms.

It looks like the zone of greatest risk is all of New England except the southeast (which will have its own problems with Arthur Friday night and Saturday).  I think most of Vermont and western New Hampshire are at the biggest risk for severe storms today.  

A small storm lets go of a streamer of rain
west of St. Albans, Vermont on Monday. Much
stronger or severe storms are
possible in that area today.  

Also in today's severe weather zone is all but far northwestern New York, and much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia.

Not everybody in this zone will get a severe storm, of course. As always in this situation, most areas will see some rain and thunder, but only a select few lucky or unlucky communities will get a severe storm.

The tornado threat is low, but there is a very slight chance of a brief twister in western New Hampshire, pretty much anywhere in Vermont, eastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania.

Almost all the severe weather will come in the form of strong wind gusts blasting over 60 mph and torrential rains. A few spots might also get large, damaging hail.

There's a local flash flood risk as well. There is a HUGE amount of moisture in the air, and those thunderstorms can let loose with one to three inches of rain in just an hour or two.

Even after the severe thunderstorm risk diminishes tonight, the flash flood risk for almost the entire Northeast will continue through Thursday and Thursday night.

That pesky cold front will tend to stall out as it waits for that equally pesky Arthur to pass by. Deep tropical moisture, partly from Arthur, will feed into the cold front and trigger areas of torrential rain.

That'll happen Thursday in pretty much all of New England, down into New York, and the Mid-Atlantic states.  

Not everyone in this zone will get torrential rain, and it's hard to predict much in advance who will get it. But prepare for some torrential thunderstorms just in case. There will, again, be some local flash floods.

On the bright side in all this lousy weather, we do see signs of improvement in a few days. In the interior Northeast, away from the coast, conditions will slowly improve on the Fourth of July with increasing sunshine, lower temperatures, lower humidity and a nice northwest breeze.

Here in Vermont, I think most of the Fourth of July parades will go off without a hitch, as will the Friday evening fireworks. (Things look a bit iffy but not hopeless in the weather department for the fireworks in Burlington, Vermont Thursday evening)

Saturday in most places looks fine, except in southeastern New England near, (sigh!) Arthur. Sunday looks fantastic in most places, too.  It'll be sunny, and warm, and not that humid in most of the Northeast.

One word of caution: Even though the weather will turn nice all up and down the East Coast over the weekend, the ocean will still be churned up by (sigh!) Arthur. That means there's a risk of nasty rip currents, waves and such that could cause drownings at ocean beaches.

Be careful out there.