More Vermont 90s, And Interesting Hot Green Mountain State Trends

Burlington managed to eek out another day above 90 degrees on Monday, making it the 15th day this year already in which it has gotten to the 90 degree mark.

A so-called cold front had passed through earlier in the day, but the slightly cooler air lagged far back in Ontario, so it wasn't really until evening that we began to feel some refreshing breezes from the northwest.

Ben Frechette, a meteorologist at WPTZ-TV, loves looking at data, as I do, shared some more stats yesterday.

I've been saying all along that the average number of days that get to 90 degrees in Burlington each year is five.

That's true if you look at the data starting in the 1880s and going through until now.  However, many climatologists look at the average going back the past 30 years or so.  If you do that, the average number of 90 days in Burlington is eight.

Frechette shared the chart you see in this post.  (Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see).

The chart shows the yearly number of 90 degree days in Burlington dating back to 1883. The darker line you see in the chart is the 30 year rolling average for the entire data set.

As you can, there is a definite trend toward increasing numbers. Such a long term trend suggests to me that climate change is playing a role, but it's probably not the only thing going on.

There are probably some cycles thrown in amid the general climate change warming. You can clearly see a spike in the number of 90 degree days in the 1940s.

Part of that might be because there was less forest in Vermont back then than there is now.  If you have more forests, you tend to have cooler temperatures in the summer because of all the transpiration and water evaporation from the trees.

But there was about the same or even even less forest cover in the decades before the 1940s, and no corresponding higher number of 90 degree days.  For whatever reason, though, the 1940s were generally warmer and drier than previous decades.

Vermont had as little as 20 percent forest cover in the late 1800s due to farmers clearing the land. By the 1980s, forest cover had reached about 75 percent.  It has stayed relatively steady since.

Moreover, rainfall has increased in Vermont during the past few decades, at a rate of about 1.5 inches per decade since 1960 or so.

Scientists think climate change is largely behind the increased rainfall. Remember, all that water from the trees and those rain storms might make it feel more humid in the summer, but the moisture also works to keep the temperatures from spiking.

That's because in wet times, more of the sun's energy goes toward evaporating water than heating the air. Plus, excess moisture can at times create extra clouds, blocking the sun, though that's not always the case.

You'd think the increasing forests and the heavier rainfall would work against an increasing trend of summertime 90 degree weather. But you see the rising trend in Frechette's chart.

One big caveat:  The immediate Burlington area has seen more suburbanization and sprawl over the past four decades than most other parts of Vermont.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington makes sure to calibrate things to ensure accurate temperature readings.

Still, I don't see as much of a warming trend in areas of Vermont that haven't changed as much as the Champlain Valley has. This part of the Champlain Valley has probably lost of bit of forest cover since 1970 or so.

I admit I have not deeply analyzed data from places like Montpelier or St Johnsbury, but I suspect the rising temperature trend lines in those communities might be a bit more tempered.

Maybe Frechette can look at that, although the dude is already incredibly busy with his weather duties at WPTZ.

May Was Second Wettest On Record As The Rains Keep Pouring Down

Green areas are parts of the nation that were wetter than normal
in May. The darker the green the greater departure from
nornal rainfall. 

It seems as if every day, floods capture the attention in weather news.

Yesterday, it was Louisiana and the Oklahoma City metro area that suffered through damaging, dangerous floods. It's just been a continuous drumbeat for it seems like a couple years at least now.

As if to prove that point, NOAA's National Centers for Climate Information released their summary for the month of May, which showed the month was the second wettest on record for the United States.

If you average it out. 4.41 inches of precipitation fell across the nation. Only May, 2015 was wetter and just barely - that month four years ago had 0.03 inches more rain than May, 2019.

The only dry areas of the nation during May, 2019 were in parts of the Southeast, western Washington and along the immediate Canadian border in Idaho, Montana and North Dakota.

Three states - Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri - had their wettest Mays on record. Twelve other states had one of their top 10 wettest Mays. (Here in Vermont it was the 18th wettest May out of the past 125 years, so pretty soggy, but not record breaking.)

Also, the 12 month period ending on May 31 was the wettest such stretch on record. The period ending April 30, 2019 (this year) was the previous wet record holder for a 12-month period. Records go back 125 years.

During that 12 month period, an average of 37.68 inches of precipitation fell across the nation, which is a whopping 7.73 inches above average.

This wetness is consistent with climate change. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor that cooler air. That added water vapor in the toastier air leaves the potential for heavier downpours.

The atmosphere in general has gotten warmer across the globe. It's interesting to note that six of the top ten wettest 12 month periods in the United States have been since 2016 and all of them have been since 1974. Remember, these records go back to 1895.

That said, month to month precipitation in the United States is highly variable. With or without climate change, a given month for the nation can be very wet, very dry, or just average.

But the overall trend has for wetter months overall, especially in the eastern half of the United States.

It's hard to say whether the rest of the year will be wet, but the first half of June is not proving to be particularly encouraging.

There were those floods yesteday in parts of the South. A slow moving collection of weather systems threatens quite a bit of flooding and heavy rain over the next several days in the Southeast. Many areas from Florida to Virginia could see five or more inches of rain over the next seven days.

Long range forecasts into the third week of June suggest that larger areas of the United States will be wetter than normal compared to those that will be drier than normal. (For the record, Vermont is forecast to be overall cooler and wetter than normal into the third week of June, despite an expected warm, dry weekend coming up.)  

Flash flooding in Tulsa, OK
Thursday. Photo via Twitter by
Jonathan Torrio

This next part will get confusing, but bear with me. The overall temperature for the nation as a whole was a little cooler than average during May.

This, after I just got done explaining that a warmer atmosphere holds more water, so that might help explain why we had such a wet national month.

Storms are at least in part a clash between warm and cold air. Although final numbers aren't in yet, May, 2019 was almost certainly in the top 10 warmest for the world as a whole. Warmer air feeding into the storms that affected the nation might have increased rainfall somewhat. Some of this warm air came from outside the nation.

And note the heaviest precipitation was in the middle of country. The Southeast was warmer than average in May, and that's where much of the humid air was coming from to feed the precipitation in those Midwest storms.

However, parts of the United States was on the cool side, bucking a worldwide trend in May, because the weather patterns during the month favored cool air flowing into the middle of the nation.

Terrible Tornadoes This Year Are "Normal," But Of Course That's Not Good

This chart is a little hard to read so click on it to make it bigger
and easier to see, but it shows the building number of
tornadoes each year since 2005. The black line is this year,
and we are off to the fastest first half of tornado season
since 2011.

It seems every day lately we get news of another terrible tornado. Deaths. Neighborhoods destroyed. Farms blown to pieces.

So it was last night when yet another tornado slammed into El Reno, Oklahoma, killing at least two people. A motel was blown apart, as was a good chunk of a mobile home park in El Reno, which is about 25 miles west of Oklahoma City.

If the words "El Reno" and "tornado" sound familiar, that's because the widest tornado on record 2.6 miles wide - hit El Reno in 2013, killing eight people, including storm chaser Tim Samaras.

There are unconfirmed reports of somewhat smaller tornadoes last night right in Oklahoma City, and in the southern part of Tulsa.

Preliminary reports indicate there have been 820 tornadoes in the United States so far this year, as of May 24. That sounds like a lot, and it is. But it's actually not anywhere near a record. Still, it's the most tornadoes as of this time of year since 2011.

By May 24 of the terrible tornado year of 2011, there had already been 1,252 twisters. In another awful year, 2008, there had been 1,139 tornadoes.

So far this year 34 people have died in United States tornadoes. On average about 75 or so people die in tornadoes annually. Last year, only ten people died in tornadoes, one of the lowest annual tolls on record. By contrast, 2011 saw 553 tornado deaths, the second worst year on record. In 1925, 774 people died.

It's still only midway through the tornado season, so it remains to be seen whether the year will keep trending busier than recent ones, and whether there will be more deaths.  The busy season could keep going, or the activity can abruptly shut down. You never know.

In the short term, the tornado forecast isn't really good. Tornadoes are forecast daily in the middle of the nation through Wednesday, and there could be quite a few of them on Tuesday, at least according to latest forecasts.

Indications are that the threat of severe weather and tornadoes will start to wane somewhat toward the end of the week.

Winter Really Wants To Cling To Life Here In New England

The snow isn't entirely out of the perennial beds in my yard in St.
Albans, Vermont and we might get a fair amount of replacement
snow at the end ofthe week, so no spring clean up yet!

We're slowly trying to climb out of winter here in Vermont and the North Country, but once again, like so many recent springs, it's turning out to be a slow slog.]

Some potential surprises in the forecast toward the end of the week and the weekend might sour our moods even more than they already are. At least for those of us who are pining for daffodils.

More on that in a second.

We seem to have fallen into a pattern in recent years. After the insanely warm March of 2012, which was by far the hottest on record and brought us  week of summer temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, we've been faced with mostly reluctant early springs in Vermot since.  

In fact, it seems we never have springs anymore, practically. In the past half decade or snow, we seem to snap from winter to spring. March in 2014, 2015, and 2017 were quite cold. The only warm one in the bunch was 2016.

We managed to eek out a near normal March last year, temperature wise, but we had one of the snowiest Marches on record, and deep snow cover lasted through the end of the month, only to bring us into a cold, snowy first half of April.

The trend seems to be repeating itself this March, in part so far. At least up to this date, it's not as bad as recent Marches, as the temperature is running only about two degrees colder than normal and snowfall is actually a shade below normal. Still, we haven't had too many hints of spring yet.

Unfortunately or fortunately, depending upon how you look at it, that could change in the coming days. Maybe.

Today and Wednesday won't be bad. It'll be a bit on the chilly side this afternoon for this time of year, with highs only in the 30s, but the sun will be out. Tomorrow is the pick of the week, as sunshine and sugaring season highs in the 40s are likely after a necessary overnight freeze to recharge the maples.

Then it gets complicated. And probably wintry. A pretty decent cold front will be coming at us from the west and northwest Thursday. That's not at all strange for the second half of March. However, some energy off the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Coast will generate a nor'easter, and more energy from that cold front will energize that storm. If the cold front arrives near the storm in time.

This potential nor'easter is a bit of surprise. Until about Sunday or so, most weather forecasting models indicated we in northern New England were safe from any big storms. But it's never that simple, and winter always has to find a way to hang on longer than it is welcome.  We might or might not get a snowstorm out of this, but there's at least a chance of it, especially in the mountains.

There have been strangely few nor'easters this winter, but this will be a bonifide one. The question is, how close does it come to Vermont to produce a lot of precipitation? And will it be cold enough for snow?

Computer models are all over the place with this thing, so nobody can yet say with any precision what this thing wants to do.  The general consensus is it will be at least a fairly strong nor'easter. Some models are weaker with it and make it pass well off the coast, and we in Vermont will be just left with gusty snow showers that could still pile up to several inches, especially in the mountains.

If the nor'easter comes closer to the coast and trends stronger, we could be talking about as much as several inches to a foot of snow in parts of Vermont, especially in the mountains and perhaps the Northeast Kingdom. Again, that's still very iffy, but within the realm of possibility.

If this storm were to come closer to the coast and it were midwinter, we'd expect a snowstorm region wide.  But it's late March, and warmer. That leads to a better chance of rain, especially in the valleys.

As you can tell, I'm doing a lot of speculation with this possible nor'easter, so stay tuned later in the week for better information.

It seems almost certain, nor'easter or not, that this coming Saturday will be very wintry, with strong, gusty northwest winds, temperatures staying below freezing in most spots, and frequent snow showers, especially in the mountains.

Weather systems are moving along fast, so it should get better by Sunday.  Heading into at least the beginning of next week, I don't see any huge warmups yet, so we'll keep hanging on to winter. Or winter-lite, anyway.

Some forecasts call for a nice warmup in the final days of March, but long-range forecasts are notoriously fickle. I'll believe it when I see it.

Hot Times Continue: January 2019 Was Tied For Third Hottest

Once again in January, 2019 most of the world was seeing red.
The month was tied for the third warmest on record. 

If new data from NOAA is any indication, a cold snap in the Midwest during January was NOT a sign that climate change is a hoax, contrary to our Fearless Leader's assessement. 

For the world as a whole, data released today indicates January, 2019 was tied for the third warmest on record. Only 2016 and 2017 were warmer. The tie was with the January, 2007.

This latest monthly report from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information also said the ten warmest Januaries on Earth have all happened since 2002. Reliable records started around 1880.

The last time the world had a cooler than normal January was in 1976. This January, the only notably colder than normal area was central Canada.

Many areas experienced record or near record heat, including Australia, parts of South America, parts of northwestern and northeastern Asia, central Russia and much of Alaska.

Notably, President Trump tweeted in January suggesting that a brief, intense cold wave in the Midwest "proved" climate change doesn't exist. For the record, temperatures were overall near average for region during January.

True, the western half of the Lower 48 has been brutally cold in February so far, most of the world is trending warmer than average this month. Western Europe, much of Alaska and parts of the southeastern United States, in particular has been extremely warm for this time of year.

Despite the cold in parts of North America, I anticipate February will probably score in the Top 5 hottest on record. We'll find out when NOAA releases its next report in about a month.

Tornadoes Are Appearing Farther East Than They Used To

Part of a rotating mini supercell looking north from Sheldon, Vermont on
May 4. This storm did NOT produce a tornado, though a tornado
watch was in effect at the time and a twister hit New Hampshire
that day. Tornaodes are increasing in the eastern U.S.

In this here blog thingy, I've remarked about the unusual number of tornadoes in the Northeast in 2018.

There's certainly no additional ones on the immediate horizon, but this year's Northeast mini-tornado alley might be part of a larger thing.

Scientists have concluded that over the past few decades there are somewhat fewer twisters in "Tornado Alley"-- places like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas -- and more tornadoes east of the Mississippi River.

According to the Associated Press:

"Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study in Wednesday's journal Climate and Atmopheric Science."

Tornado frequency in the Northeast is low, but it has ticked upward.

"The study looked at changes since 1979. Everywhere east of the Mississippi, except the west coast of Florida, is seeing some increase in tornado activity. The biggest increase occurred in states bordering the Mississippi River," reports the AP.

This eastward trend in tornadoes is bad because the more eastern twisters are hitting in places that are more heavily populated than "Tornado Alley."  Also, people are more likely to live in mobile homes east of the Mississippi, and those homes are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.

When you get a tornado warning, you shouldn't look for the tornado. You should get into a shelter. But people naturally do look for the twister, even though it's a dangerous idea. In the East, it's harder to see a tornado coming because there are so many more trees in the way. That could make tornadoes deadlier, too.

The eastern tornadoes are also more likely to happen at night, when people might sleep through warnings or otherwise be unaware a twister is approaching.

Scientists aren't sure why there's an eastward shift in tornadoes and can't specifically pin it on global warming. But, say authors of this study, the shift if consistent with climate change.

Tornadoes often form along or near a "dry line" which is a sharp usually north to south line with very humid air to the east and very dry air to the west. Climate change seems to be shifting the average location of this dry line eastward, so it makes sense that tornadoes would form more to the east as well.

Scientists want to do more research to see if the eastern tornadoes are indeed part of global warming's effects, or whether something else is going on.

Early End To Vermont Winter? Well........It's Complicated

Tonks the Weather Dog out in our St. Albans, Vermont
driveway today sniffing the air for early signs of spring.
Tonks says there are subtle, vague indications to be hopeful.

This seems to be turning out to be - at least from what I can see - as something I'd call a front-loaded winter in Vermont.

The winter hit earlier than in recent years way back in November and December. And as you'll recall, by the second half of December and early January, the weather got quite harsh.

Since then, it's been a relatively easy season, as far as Vermont winters go, and there's nothing in the immediate forecast that I would call all that wintry. In fact, there are signs most of the rest of February will be kind of gentle.

Looking back in more detail, November turned out to be a little colder than normal, and December was more than three degrees chillier than what we would normally expect.

Then there was that first week of January when the temperature fell to a record 20 below in Burlington, Vermont and close to 40 below in some of the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom.

Then we got a break, and despite some wintry shots, we've been coasting since. It's as if winter got all revved up and exhausted itself early. Like I said, front loaded. The second half of January was more than seven degrees warmer than normal.

February so far is running 3.5 degrees warmer than normal in Burlington. Though it's somewhat chilly today, the forecast indicates the running February average will get even more above normal in the coming days.

We're expecting highs in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday. After cooling off to near normal readings Friday and Saturday, we go back above normal next week, and could get all the way to almost the end of the month with the majority of the days being on the toasty side.

I would almost dare to bet my next paycheck that it won't get down to 20 below again in Burlington this winter.

By mid-February, the Vermont winter cold usually begins to show signs of abating anyway. It least in most years. The sun feels a little warmer in these longer days, and the normal average temperature begins to creep up. It's just this year, the early signs of winter's end seem just a tad more pronounced than in some years.

One thing this means is, I'm hoping Vermont sugarmakers are ready to start their season early once again. It's looking more and more likely there's some decent sap runs coming in the next couple of weeks.

There has been a general trend in Vermont and elsewhere for earlier seasons anyway in recent years.

You want to catch the sap now, in case March turns out much warmer than normal, which would end the season early. Of course, at this point, we have no idea what kind of month March will be.

March is, of course, a wild card. Probably the most wild card month of the year. True, we've had a warm March here and there, like in 2012, in which Vermonters spent a week during March in summery temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. 

We also know March can be extremely wintry. Just last year, after Burlington, Vermont reached an incredible, unprecedented 72 degrees in late February, March brought us the three-foot- deep Pi-day blizzard and a deep snow cover that lasted into the first days of April.

March, 2007 and March 1993 might as well have been midwinter months, they were so cold and snowy, so you can see anything can happen.

Winter might or might not be largely over, but we can now take comfort in the fact that this winter will not go down in history as severe as we thought it would be back at Christmastime. Even if March turns out to be rough on us.

Carbon Emissions To Hit Record High This Year

Global carbon emissions are expected to rise this year
after three years of no growth, disappointing c
climate change activists

Carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will reach a record high this year, according to news from the UN world climate summit ongoing now in Bonn, Germany.

Emissions had been flat for the past three years, which raised some hopes that the long decades long increase in carbon emissions had finally peaked. The carbon emissions are of course what is behind global warming.

As the Guardian points out, however, you can't read too, too much into one year. The increase this year was driven by an improved world economy. Increased industrial and economic output corresponds to increased carbon emissions.

Also, a piece of the problem was dry weather in China, which reduced hydroelectric power output. So  China resorted to fossil fuels to make up the difference.

Growing economic powers like China are emphasizing more renewable resources, like wind and solar, though coal and oil are still mainstays of China and the rest of the industrialized world.

The Guardian article reflected mixed reactions in the world of climate change watchers.

"The news that emissions are rising after the three-year hiatus is a giant leap backwards for humankind....Pushing the Earth closer to tipping points is deeply concerning. Emissions need to peak soon and approach zero by 2050," said Amy Luers, executive director of the global research initiative Future Earth.

Other officials said there's naturally going to be year to year fluctuations in carbon emissions. It's possible 2017 will turn out to be a blip in an otherwise steady or slowly falling carbon emissions trend. Who knows?

Today's Southeast Tornado Outbreak Could Be Especially Nasty

The elementary school in Goodman, Missouri was trashed by
a tornado Tuesday evening, marking the start of the latest
tornado outbreak. Photo via Twitter, Fox 23 News. 

UPDATE: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the tornado risk in part of the Southeast to "High" which is the most dire level of alert

The High Risk zone extends through central Georgia into part of South Carolina. Large, destructive tornadoes are quite possible in this area.

Already, a large, catastrophic looking tornado was already reported on the ground in southwestern Georgia as of 12:45 p.m.

As of 1 p.m., there was reports of extensive damage in a half mile to mile wide path with this tornado, so this is about as big as they come. Extremely dangerous, too. And with this type of weather setup, this tornado,and others like it, could stay on the ground for a long time. Which of course is really, really bad.

This extremely dangerous tornado was headed toward Plains, Georgia as of 1 p.m.  That's Jimmy Carter's home town. It was also heading for the bigger town of Americus, Georgia, population 16,000+.

Scary

Areas surrounding the high risk area are also in danger of powerful, deadly tornadoes for pretty much the rest of the day.

It's also beginning to look like there will be a tornado risk extending up the East Coast to as far as Virginia tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As of early this Wednesday morning, there was already a tornado watch up for a most of Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida panhandle.

That they would issue tornado watches this early in the day is an ominous sign that this could be a particularly destructive day in the Southeast and parts of the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys.

Forecasters are definitely worried there could be numerous tornadoes today, and some of them could be quite strong.

The power of a particular tornado outbreak is hard to pinpoint even a few hours in advance. Sure, you often know a day or two in advance whether there's potential for lots of strong tornadoes, or just a couple weak spinups.

The potential is certainly there today for some carnage, but tornadoes are all a matter of luck.

Maybe we'll get lucky and the atmosphere won't come together quite perfectly enough to produce a lot of dangerous tornadoes.

Or, a few very strong tornadoes will develop, but they'll go over rural and forested countryside and not hit any towns or cities.

We could also get unlucky, and a tornado could maraude through a population center, like in April, 2011, when a super outbreak trashed Tuscaloosa, Alabama and other populated towns in the South, killing more than 300 people, injuring nearly 2,800 and causing over $10 billion in damage.

I'm sure today's outbreak won't be as bad as the cataclysm of 2011, which was arguably the worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history.

There won't be as many tornadoes this time, the dangerous weather won't last as long, and we'll probably be luckier than in 2011.

Still, in one respect, our nation's luck with tornadoes seems to have run out this year.

After the very tragic tornado year of 2011, each of the five years from 2012 to 2016 were relatively quiet in terms of tornadoes. Those years had their share of tornado deaths and destruction, but not on par with how bad it often gets in the United States in the spring.

However, this year, we're on a near-record pace for tornadoes. As of a couple days ago,  U.S. Tornadoes says that the United States has had a reported 474 tornadoes so far in 2017, with 27 deaths.

And the season is still young. Tornado season usually peaks in May.

What will become this latest outbreak of tornadoes actually started in Missouri last night, when the town of Goodman was hit by a twister that badly damaged its elementary school, a fire station and part of downtown. Luckily, no deaths with that one, but there were two injuries.

People in the Southeast are taking few chances with their luck today. The governor of Alabama has already declared a state of emergency, and many schools are closed across Alabama, Georgia and other states.

Everybody in the region is being told to know where to go very quickly to a basement or a tornado shelter within a moment's notice.

The latest anticipated tornado outbreak will end Thursday when dangerous thunderstorms exit the Mid-Atlantic coast. After a brief break, there's a chance of more tornadoes in the Midwest Sunday. After that, who knows?

Maybe we'll get lucky and the season will quiet down. Don't bet on it, though.

Record Hot Times For Planet Earth For 12th Month In A Row

A red world: Global temperaturs were way abov
normal almost everywhere in April.  

NOAA confirmed yesterday that last month was the hottest April on record for Planet Earth.

Incredibly, it was the 12th consecutive month that the world has seen a hottest month, and 2016 is likely to go down as the warmest year on record for the globe.

Blame climate change, with an assist from El Nino for this literal hot mess.

Climate change is continuing to exert upward pressure on global temperatures and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.

El Nino, the periodic warming of the eastern Pacific, puts a lot of extra heat into the air. The most added heat in the air lags the peak of El Nino by a few months, which explains why it's so hot. And why temperatures in the last year or so have spiked up way above the somewhat slower long term upward trend.

Each of the last seven months in NOAA's database, going back to the late 1800s, are the only ones that were a degree or more warmer than the long term average.

When you're looking at the globe as a whole, a few tenths of a degree above or below normal is remarkable. A full degree is incredible.

By the way, we haven't had a month that was even a smidge cooler than normal, if you take the Earth as  whole, since February, 1985. So if you're 31 years old or younger, you've never experienced a cooler than average month on the Globe.

Many of not most scientists are expecting global temperatures to cool slightly in the upcoming months and year or two as El Nino wanes.

So don't expect to keep hearing "warmest ever" phrases every month. But with underlying global warming continuing on, don't expect to ever harken back to the 1980s or before. I don't think we'll ever see a cooler than average month again, unless there's massive global volcanoes, huge asteroid hits or nuclear war or some other terrible thing.

The warmth in April was once again concentrated up in the Arctic.

Ice extent continues way below normal up there, which might set the stage for a record low ice extent come Septemeber. Whether or not that actually happens depends on summertime weather patterns at the top of the globe.

But the trend is there. It's also not helping that massive early season wildfires in Canada and Siberia are dropping bits of soot on some of the existing ice, which would hasten melting under summertime sun. (Dark objects like soot absorb the sun's heat. White ice reflects the heat more.)

Young people are always admonished to change the world. But we shouldn't be changing the world this way. Watch for more weather disasters, big climate disruptions and other expensive consequences of global warming coming to a planet near you.

Maybe Global Warming Didn't Slow Down After All. Now Speeding Up?

A NOAA analysis shows no slowdown in global
warming in recent decades, contrary
to much discussion in recent years.  

The global warming watchers of the world, the scientists and public who are concerned about it, and the dwindling number of people who think it isn't happening, were pretty wild about a NOAA study that came out last week.  

Remember that "pause" in global warming? Where global temperatures supposedly didn't really increase much in the past decade or so? Didn't happen.

It turns out global warming continued roughly on pace the way it has for decades now.

The only mitigating part of this is, global warming should have accelerated over the past decade or two. Instead, it plodded along at the same rate it did in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.

Maybe "plodding" isn't the right word, since the the rate of warming in the late 20th century was extraordinary, at least compared to global temperature change over eons.

Here's the scary part.  A variety of natural factors seems to have prevented global warming from accelerating over the past decades. These factors included volcanic eruptions that put sun-blocking sulfer dioxide in the air, heat transfer deep into oceans, cyclical shifts in Pacific Ocean currents, the predominance of cooling El Nina weather patterns, and other influences

Many of these temporary phenomenon  are fading. We might have begun an acceleration in the rate of global warming starting in 2014. That year was widely regarded as the warmest year in modern history.

Plus, 2015, is on a good pace to be warmer than 2014.

A group of NOAA scientists, in a study published in Science had this to say, according to ThinkProgress:

"The authors warned that by 2020, human-caused warming will over the Earth's climate system into a regime of rapid multi-decadal rates of warming. They project that within the next few years, 'there is an increased likelihood of accelerated global warming associated with release of heat from the subsurface ocean and a reversal of the phase of decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean." 

Of course, global warming will never go on a steady pace whether we deal with it or ignore it or do something in between.  Some or all of those natural factors we talked about could temporarily slow global warming again after a burst of more rapid warming.

Some years, maybe 2015, will be the warmest on record. There will be other years in the near future warmer than 2015. But a few years, maybe even 2016 will be slightly cooler than 2014 or 2015.

No matter. The trend is there, it's strong, it could be strengthening. Let's hope the debate has moved well beyond whether global warming is happening and instead, we should be debating what we should do about it.

No matter

Are We "Weather Porn" Addicts? And Is That A Bad Thing?

There's nothing inherently wrong with viewing
images like this tornado in Moore, OK, but..... 

Lately, if you really want to create a storm in the meteorological  community, just bring up the term "weather porn."  

And this storm has nothing to do with wind, rain, snow or destruction. But maybe it does have a little to do with hot air.  Or not. You decide.

What precipitated (ha!) this latest kerfuffle among weather geeks was a recent article by David Bauder, a television writer for the Associated Press.

He noted that the evening news, and lots of other news sources are loaded up with weather stories.

This, Bauder seemed to argue, had as much to do with ratings as news value. After all, people are attracted to dramatic images of extreme weather. Weather porn, if you will.

I've always freely admitted that some of what I post on this here weather and climate blog thingy is weather porn.

Hey, I'm just as much a fan of weather porn as the next guy or gal, even as I know I also have a responsibility to offer sober stuff, non-hyped stuff, not sensationalism

I really don't see the harm in weather porn, at least in moderation.

What really drew a negative reaction, and I can see why, is a source for Bauder's story characterized ABC News meteorologist Ginger Zee as a "pornographer."

Here's news consultant Andrew Tyndall, quoted in Bauder's piece:

"If Ginger Zee reported in the role of climatologist rather than meteorologist, I would praise ABC's 'World News Tonight's' decision as a daring intervention into a crucial national and global debate.....Instead, she is more like a pornographer."

I, as a weather geek and journalist, and many outspoken meteorologists, have real problems with Tyndall's quote.

First of all, Ginger Zee has proven herself to be a highly capable, accurate and good meteorologist and journalist.

Also, implicit in the Tyndall quote is an assumption that maybe every news story that even touches on weather ought to be sounding alarms on global warming.

.....when we're done watching the dramatic tornado video,
it's time to help people like this. (Photo by Sue Ogrocki, AP)   

It's true journalists really have a duty to spread as much accurate information on climate change as possible.

But not every news story, not every weather story warrants an exhaustive examination of global warming.

If a storm is an immediate threat, if a tornado, hurricane, flood, blizzard, snow storm, ice storm, cold snap or heat wave is threatening a city, a region or a country, those potentially affected want to know what's up with this particular crisis. And how to protect themselves.

One the storm passes, that would be a good time to examine whether global warming had a role in the disaster or really bad weather.

Additionally, it's a necessary public service when people like Ginger Zee describe for us the implications and hazards of a storm or extreme weather.

That said, it's also true that TV networks and other media outlets love, LOVE showing footage of extreme weather. Frankly so do I.

I openly refer to wild, dramatic videos and photos of tornadoes, hurricanes and the like as "weather porn." People get off on it. I do, too.

Of course, this enthusiasm for "weather porn" gives me some serious pangs of guilt, and should for everyone who enjoys weather porn.

The people who were killed in that storm left behind grieving loved ones. The houses that were destroyed belonged to someone. The lives that were uprooted by the severe weather will never be the same.

I like to think our addiction to weather porn has a good side. That maybe it inspires us to help those who were victimized by dangerous weather. That it makes us lobby for better structural standards, and zoning to keep people from building in hazardous places.

I'd also like to think all these images of severe weather prompts us to become activists against climate change.

That's the hope, anyway.

The power of nature is thrilling, awe-inspiring, deadly, tragic and incredibly vivid.  I will continue to be a fan of weather porn, and I'm sure a lot of other people will, too.  

I just hope we don't sit back and do nothing once we've finished watching that video of an EF-5 tornado destroy a pleasant Great Plains small town.

Hot Times In September Are More Evidence Global Warming Is Resurgent

NCDC's map of global temperatures in Sept. 2014
are showing a LOT of global heat.  

If you were sweating it out in September, you weren't alone.

The whole world was hot, hot, hot.

The National Climate Data Center said Monday that if you combine ocean and land temperatures, September was the hottest such month since they started keeping track of these things 135 years ago.

Monday's announcement echos NASA, which earlier this month, using their own measurements, also said September was the hottest on record across the globe

We might be starting a trend of renewed, more intense warming, but of course it's a little too soon to be sure.  But here's food for thought along those lines:

The NCDC said this year so far ties with 1998 as the hottest year on record. A lot of people who say global climate change is not happening or is a non-issue would tell you that 1998 was the hottest year on record and it's been cooling off ever since.

That's not at all right, of course. The year 1998 had a mega-El Nino, which causes global temperatures to get hotter than they normally would be, with or without global warming caused by us humans belching tons of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

Also, overall, the Earth's climate has continued to warm since 1998, just not at as fast a pace it was during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

Besides, 1998 isn't the world's hottest year on record. The Top Five hottest, starting with number one and working down to fifth hottest are: 2010, 2005, 1998, 2013, 2003.  So global warming has kept going since 1998 despite what the naysayers tell us.

The apparent slowdown in the rate of warming over the past 15 years isn't really shocking. Many scientists say a lot of the increasing heat in recent years has been going into the oceans. Also, human caused global warming doesn't shut down other natural cycles in the climate.

Human caused global warming might overwhelm these cycles, but they're still in play. So the pace of global warming might wax and wane during different decades.

The heat of 2014 could be a sign that the slightly slower pace of global warming might be ending, but of course we would need many months and years of additional data to verify that.

But every month so far in 2014 except February ranked among the top four hottest months on record. May, June, August and September were the hottest such months on record. February brought a "cool" spell, in which the world had "only" its 18th hottest February, out of the past 135 years.

We might be heading into another El Nino, a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific ocean. As in 1998, the current building El Nino might be adding more heat on top of the warmth induced by carbon dioxide emissions.

It's unclear how strong the upcoming El Nino will be, if it comes at all.  It probably won't be as strong as it was in 1997 and 1998, yet still we seem poised to break high temperature records set then.

Obviously, I hope that a faster pace of climate change isn't starting. But if it is, the people who are telling us the concept of human-caused  climate change is bunk might have to change their narrative.

You know, the false one that said climate change stopped 20 years ago. I wonder what they'll come up with for a new story?

Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger Further North?

An interesting NOAA study came out recently that indicates that in general, hurricanes and tropical storms are reaching their peak intensity further and further to the north as the decades pass.   

Hurricane Juan approaching Nova Scotia, Canada
in September, 2003. Scientist say they think
hurricanes are reaching peak intensity more and
more to the north in recent decades.  

This makes intutitive sense, since, as the oceans warm under the influence of global climate change, tropical storms and hurricanes would have more room to grow.

Hurricanes need warm water to thrive. Usually the water temperature needs to be near or above 80 degrees for them to thrive. If a hurricane hits land, or colder water, they weaken.

The study notes that this trend is not good, because cities to the north are not as well prepared for hurricanes as tropical communities.

And if hurricanes are going more to the north, their rain misses the tropics, where it is sometimes needed.

NASA says the trend toward more northern hurricanes isn't as noticeable in the Atlantic, off America's East Coast, as it is elsewhere in the northern hemisphere.

But over the past couple of decades, there has been a lot more hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. That's believed to be due mostly to natural cycles and not so much due to global climate change.

This year, an El Nino ocean pattern is developing in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That causes worldwide weather disruptions. But the good news is El Nino tends to reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, lessening the chance somebody on the East Coast will get pounded late this summer and fall.

Then again, it only takes one hurricane to cause chaos.

January Was World's Fourth Warmest, Despite Chill In U.S. Media Centers

The people who spent the last month or so whining that the cold weather in January was "proof" that global warming doesn't exist got some, well, tepid water thrown in their face yesterday by news from the National Climate Data Center.

This map from the NCDC shows that although the eastern
United States, part of Siberia and eastern Europe were
cold in January, 2014, most of the rest of the world was warm.  

Their monthly global temperature analysis for January came out, and the Data Center determined that on a global basis, January, 2014 was the four warmest on record and the hottest January since 2007.

The Climate Data Center's revelation was no surprise to people who watch these things, as most months have been scoring in the Top 10 warmest globally.

As we in the eastern United States shivered in the opening weeks of 2014, we watched much of the world bake, or at least bask in relative warmth.

Each of the past nine months, on a global basis, scored in the Top 10 hottest on record.

It was mostly climate change "experts" like Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz who basically said the U.S. cold wave in January indicated global warming was a crock.

So, for the record, again: If where you live gets a cold wave that  doesn't prove that global warming is a hoax. Conversely, if you have one heat wave where you live, that doesn't in and of itself prove global warming is happening.

You have to look at all of the Earth, and you have to watch long term trends over many years and decades to understand whether the world is warming, and at what pace that is happening.

By the way, based on National Climate Center Data, if you are under the age of 29, you have never seen a month when the global average temperature was below normal. (The last time we had a chillier than normal month was February, 1985)

The pace of global warming, at least on land surfaces on Earth, has slowed over the past 10 years, but hasn't "paused" as some people suggest.

The reason for the slowdown in the pace at which the world is warming, at least as felt in places where people actually live, is poorly understood.

Maybe the effects of carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere might not be as strong as some thought. Or some other natural factor is slowing the warming, at least temporarily. It might be the oceans are collecting the extra heat for some reason. Some scientists said last month increased trade winds in the Pacific Ocean might have blunted the pace of the warming

When there's an El Nino, a period of warming in the eastern Pacific, the pace of global warming increases. When there's an El Nina, the pace of the warming slows.  We've had a lot of cooling El Ninas recently.

There are indications an El Nino might start later this year.  If that happens, it will be interesting to see if things get hotter faster on a global basis, or the slower pace of the warming continues as it has in recent years.