No Surprise: Earth's Second Hottest February

The worldwide climate change heat rolls on.

Last Friday, NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information confirmed that February on Earth was hot: It was the second warmest February on record. Only February, 2016 was a little warmer.

The 2016 February record was set during an El Nino, when warmth from the eastern Pacific Ocean is released into the atmosphere, boosting global temperatures.

This year was a "neutral" El Nino year, which meant the eastern Pacific wasn't unusually hot nor cold, so there was no added heat boost to bring up global tempertures last month.

This, by the way, was the 44th consecutive warmer than normal February on Earth.  The United States, Vermont included, shared in the warm February.  Here in Vermont overall, it was the 15th warmest of thos 126 years of data.

The winter (December through February) as a whole on Earth was also the second warmest on record.

Europe was the episode of this past winter's warmth.  Russia had its toastiest winter on record, and the average temperature for the winter in Moscow was a bit above freezing, which is the first time on record that has happened.

Helsinki, Finland had no measureable snow in January and February, which is the first time on record that has happenened.

Here in Vermont, Burlington  had its eighth warmest winter on record.

The only cool winter spots were Alaska, far northwestern Canada, parts of India and a remote area of the southern Indian Ocean

It Wasn't Just Vermont: Nation Had Warm Winter

This, believe it or not, is a weird map. (Click on it to make it bigger
and easier to see).  It shows how each state's overall winter
temperature ranked compared to the coolest and hottest. No
state had a cooler than average winter. Almoat always, there
is at least one region that is cool every season. Not this winter.

As I mentioned several days ago, we in Vermont got a break this year with a mild winter. This, despite a late autumn that was ominously cold, snowy and icy.

It wasn't just us that had that kind of winter.  It started rough in many spots.  Out in Ohio, it turned out that the coldest days of the winter hit before the winter solstice well before Christmas. Since then, it's been toasty, aside from a few "meh" cold spells.

Officially, the Lower 48 had its 6th warmest winter on record, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  Winter here is defined as the period from December 1 through February 29.

Winter in the United States had been on pace to be the warmest on record after a remarkably coast to coast bout of  toastyness in December and January.  However, February was only the 34th warmest out of 126 years of record.  Still among the warmest one-third of Februaries, but not record breaking

That brought this winter's ranking down to sixth place. .

The odd thing about national February temperatures is that almost no part of the nation was cooler than normal, aside from Colorado and Wyoming, which were slightly on the cool side. Alaska did have a significantly colder than normal February, though.

For the winter as a whole, every state except Alaska was warmer than normal.

Usually, even in the warmest winters, or any season for that matter, a few parts of the nation end up being colder than normal.  (In particularly cold months or season, at least a small part of the nation are usually warmer than average). This certainly didn't happen this year.

By my count 25 states- half the nation, had one of the top 10 warmest winters on record. Vermont is included amont those 25 states. The Green Mountain State barely made it, scoring  its 10th warmest winter on record.

The nation as a whole was wetter than normal during February, too. That was mostly led by the Southeast, which had one its wettest Februaries on record.  The contrast was California, which was very dry.  San Francisco had its first rainless February since the Civil War.

Climate figures for February for the entire world are due out in a week or so, which means I'll update you then. It's widely expected February, 2020 will be among the hottest on record.  The first month ofthe year was the world's hottest January on record. 

Vermont February, No Surprise, Was Wet And Warm For Winter

Snow and ice cover trees in St. Albans, Vermont on February 9.
February was somewhat warm, with plenty of mixed precipitation
across Vermont. 

Today, March 1, represents the start of spring. At least to climatologists.

True, it's a wintry day out there in Vermont, with fresh snow on the ground in many places and temperatures that are expected to only make it into the low 20s.

However, climatologists who measure the weather in seasons regard meteorological spring as the period from March 1 through May 31. So winter is over. Yay.  

Not that the last part of winter was extreme.  I'll admit February in Vermont was a true winter month, with plenty of snow in many areas and temperatures that didn't break any record highs to speak of.

But it was warm, and on the wet side. Consistent with the rest of the winter, we had our share of mixed precipitation in the Green Mountain State.

Official, the mean February temperature in Burlington was 24.8 degrees, which was 3.3 degrees on the warm side. That's not remotely close to even the top 10 warmest Februaries, but there's no doubt we didn't exact have icebox conditions, either.

There was 2.3 inches of rain and melted snow and ice in Burlington during February, which was about a half inch on the plus side. Again, wet, but not in the top ten wettest list.

It was also a snowy February in Burlington. It amounted to 21.4 inches, which is five inches snowier than average. Once again, nowhere near any records for snow, though.

Elsewhere in Vermont, departures from normal in February were remarkably consistent, much more than in most months.  Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Morrisville and St. Johnsbury were all near or somewhat more than two degrees warmer than normal. All of these stations were wetter than normal for February, but not by a large margin.

February was good for snow in many of Vermont's mountains. The month started with about 46 inches of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield and ended with 83 inches covering the ground near the summit.

While February temperatures didn't set records for warmth, the winter as a whole was quite warm.  December 1 through February 29 averaged 26.1 degrees for what is climatological winter in Burlington.  That's the seventh warmest winter on record. This means five of the top ten warmest winters in Burlington were in this century, the 2000s.

Elsewhere in New England, Boston had its second warmest winter on record. Providence was fifth warmest, and Worcester was seventh warmest.

It wasn't just New England. You're going to hear of a number of United States and overseas citys and even nations having their warmest winter on record this year as data comes in over the next coming days.

Mid-February: When You Look For A Sign Winter Is Breaking. And It Has

Tuesday: The deep dark gloom of winter seemed like it would
never go away around my St. Albans, Vermont property

Much has been made about the mild winter across much of the United States, including here in Vermont.

However, here in the northern Vermont, this February has been a truly winter month.  Nothing extreme, mind you, but you know it's winter.  

Temperatures are running a little above normal so far this month, but we have also been making occasional excursions to below zero territory.  Snowfall is running a little above average, too.

Even though a lot of people like winter and want it to continue, I get a little ambivalent about it this time of year. There's certainly beauty in the white winter landscape. Dramatic, cold storms are fun for any weather geek.  Still, one often looks ahead, and so do I, toward spring.

Wednesday:  A chill north wind, but you could feel the warmth of the
February sun battling against winter. Photo was taken at 4:35 p.m.,
which would have been nighttime two months ago. 

Tuesday was dark, gloomy, wintry day in Vermont, I referred the weather then as the dog days of February.

 It was the kind of day when  you feel winter has been going on forever and it will never end. It snowed off and on. It was windy and raw. There was a thick blanket of snow and ice on the ground. It seemed a bit hopeless, frankly.

Wednesday was another day, and another attitude. If only in my imagination, the first crack in winter's grasp appeared to me on Wednesday, even if it was a wintry day by anybody's definition.

Now, I'm not saying winter is over, not by a long shot. Heck, it's going to be below zero tonight. And we will surely have our share of snowstorms, cold snaps, ice and winter chill to come in March and even in April.

But hear me out on what I felt yesterday was the first signs that this albeit tame winter is about to lose its grip.  It came when the snow lost its grip on my roof at 4:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Hopefully, in less than three months, my yard will look like this.

Temperatures rose Tuesday night to near 40 degrees. Enough to cause a little thawing. Just before temperatures starting crashing downward again, a couple hours before dawn,  the foot-thick layer of snow and ice covering our roof let go all at once.

The house roared and shook and swayed as all the snow and ice on both sides of the roof all slid off at once.  It was a wonder to behold, even if I had to shovel the compacted ice away from the front door so we could get outdoors.

During the mid-morning, another Arctic cold front tossed down a handful of snowflakes amid gusty northwest winds. Then the sky cleared.

Earlier in the winter, when the sun was at a weak, low angle, the temperature would have steadily dropped all day behind that cold front.  With the stronger mid-February sun, the temperature held stubbornly in the upper 20s, despite the north winds trying to drive the frigid air in.

The bottom line is, winter and spring battled it out Wednesday afternoon, and that battle ended in a draw, at least until the sun went down and the temperature would plummet.

Before it did so, the better, higher sun angle did one more favor. Our winter of mixed precipitation left a nearly two inch sold layer of ice on our driveway. Michelle Kwan could win another gold metal skating on it.

But the sun wore a small patch of bare pavement near where my truck was parked. The sun warmed the pavement, melting the ice around the bare patch.  I was actually able to expand the bare patch a bit.

With the strongest grasp of winter now broken, it now feels like we are entering the see-saw war between spring and winter.  Already, the subzero readings expected Thursday morning will give way to 40-degree temperatures by Sunday.

True to form, as we go through pretty much the entire month of March, we will see a few more below zero readings.  Just as in 2017 and 2018, it's possible we'll see the biggest snowstorm of the winter this year in March.  That's not a forecast, but who knows? It could happen.

However, the chances of mild, perhaps even sunny days keep increasing. Already, the normal temperature for today in Burlington is four degrees warmer than it was on February 1. Onward and upward!

The sun will keep strengthening, and the days will continue to get blissfully longer. The sun was still blasting down nicely at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday.  In December, it would already have been dark.

The battle for spring will be won several weeks from now, and maybe I'll fulfill my winter long fantasy of getting back in the garden, smelling the gorgeous organic aroma of mud and new blooms, and seeing the landscape turn to that delicious spring green.

I'll need to be patient with this, but bring it on!


i

California Dreaming? Small Storm Producing An Indoor Kinda Day In Vermont

Mid-February "Dog  Days" as I call them.  A winter's accumulation of snow
on the ground this morning on my St. Albans, Vermont yard, with more
snow blowingaround.  It hasn't been an especially cold winter, but it has
been rich in snow, ice and rain.  Typically, mid-February is when
I start really pining for spring. 

This isn't exactly the Storm of the Century on this February Tuesday in Vermont, but it still makes you want to stay inside and curl up with a good book.

As of 9 a.m., that little burst of snow has come into Vermont, and it will probably snow the rest of the morning.

Not a biggie - we'll end up with one to three inches of hard to measure accumulation by the time it tapers off and/or switches to drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle this afternoon. Some areas in the mountains could pick up a bit more than three inches of new snow.

I said the snow will be hard to measure because the wind is picking up, too. That's blowing the snow around in many areas and will continue to do so. That is at least until temperatures go slightly above freezing west of the Green Mountains this afternoon, making the snow a little soggier and harder to blow around.

I'm not  quite as concerned about the wind as I was yesterday, but it still will be a factor for sure. There's a wind advisory over the Champlain Islands and northern New York.  Winds in the northern Champlain Valley will probably gust to near or a little over 50 mph this afternoon. Elsewhere winds might go over 40 mph, especially west of the Greens.

That's enough to take down a few branches and power lines here and there, even in the Champlain Islands, which are used to strong winter winds.  Yesterday, I was wondering about the risk of strong, damaging downslope winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains.  Winds will definitely be gusty there today, but not as bad as some of the epic wind storms that sometimes strike those areas of Vermont.

There will probably be areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow flurries into this evening, but it wo't amount to much.  Northern areas might see a few snow showers or isolated snow squalls Wednesday as a second cold front comes through.

Then we have yet another one to two day cold shot before it warms up again. Rinse and repeat.

The cold, windy, snow, grey day for me inspires me to post this video, too:

All In All, A Very Good NWS Winter Storm Forecast

This is the forecast map issued early Tuesday morning
for the storm that started Tuesday afternoon and ended
Wednesday. Orange areas show the most snow, blue
the least. At this point, NWS meteorologists were expecting
as little as five inches of new snow in the blue areas
ad up to a foot in the dark orange ones. 

Today is the pick of the month as far as I've concerned for this February's weather.

We're coming off a winter storm that at least in central and northern sections, gave us Vermonters a nice fresh dump of powder.

It has been gorgeous out there this Thursday afternoon, with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and temperatures near or just below freezing. Toasty enough to keep you warm but cool enough to keep the snow conditions perfect for winter sports.

If you're going to love something this Valentine's Day, love today's weather. And your honey, of course.

Speaking of perfect, it's time to look at how the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont did with their very challenging forecast for the snow and sleet storm, which ended yesterday.

Forecasts for snow amounts in a region are never, ever completely right. Things always vary from one town to the next. However, in this forecast, at least in the broad brush, the NWS got it right.

Meteorologists said ahead of the storm the most snow would fall in the northern Green Mountains, (especially the eastern slopes,) the northern Champlain Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. That's pretty much what happened.

You can see for yourself: The top map is what the NWS was forecasting for our area early Tuesday morning, hours before the snow started. The lower map in this post is what really happened.

Here's a map of the actual snow totals from the storm
Tuesday and Wednesday. Darkest orange represents about
a foot of snow, other orange areas got 8-12 inches.
Blue areas got four to six inches of accumulation.

Aside from the areas that got the most snow, also notice the lower amounts along the Connecticut River Valley and the west slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains. That had been forecast well in advance.

The southern two counties of Vermont got less snow than predicted, mostly because of some extra sleet and freezing rain involved. The NWS office in Albany, New York, not the South Burlington NWS issues forecasts for the far southern end of Vermont.

That's not to say the NWS office in Albany is worse than South Burlington. By my estimation, they're equally good. It's just that Albany was slightly off in southern Vermont this time.

The next storm, tomorrow, won't have as much precipitation. There might be  dusting to two inches of snow in the valleys and up to two to four inches of snow in the mountains. Snow will change to rain in the valleys tomorrow as it warms up. There will be gusty winds from the south Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley.

For those of you sick of storms, there might be a decent dry spell Saturday through Wednesday. There is the danger we could get a snowy surprise in that time frame, but right now it looks like there will be little or no precipitation in that time frame.

It will be colder starting Saturday than it was today, so I hope you enjoyed the outdoors this afternoon!

Up And Down January Proves Snowy; But Not THAT Much On Ground

The first day of January, 2019, featured no snow on the ground in
St. Albans, Vermont and it almost looked springlike, but......

January in Vermont has ended and February has begun, so it's time to assess the weather during the first month of 2019.

It certainly was an up and down month, as we'd go a few days with warmth, then a few days with cold, and back again.

There were never more than six days in a row with continuous below freezing temperatures. Thaws were frequent, but not huge or particularly long lasting.

Cold waves came in abundance, but they, too, were not anywhere close to record-setting.

In the end, Burlington's mean temperature for the month was. 17.3 degrees, or 1.4 degrees chillier than normal. Other locations in Vermont were a bit colder than that. Montpelier's 13.5 degree average temperature for January was 3.5 degrees colder than normal. St. Johnsbury was 2.9 degrees chillier than normal during January, 2019.

Even though temperatures yo-yo'd back and forth all month, we never did hit any super extremes. Burlington's warmest day during January was 44 degrees and the coldest was minus 16.  Neither of these temperatures came anywhere close to setting any records.

The frequent temperature changes during January hint at the idea there was a lot of storminess, and sure enough, the month was wet and snowy.

Burlington has 3.29 inches of precipitaition which was about 1.2 inches more than normal. It fell just outside the Top 10 list of wettest Januaries. Other places were wetter. Montpelier had 3.71 inches of precipitation, and St. Johnsbury was soggy at 4.64 inches.

Much of this precipitation came down as snow, of course, and Vermont was really snowy. Burlington's 41.8 inches of snow for the month made this January the third snowiest. Only the Januaries of 2010 (48.4 inches) and 1978 (42.4 inches) were snowier.

....by the last day of the month, there was nearly a foot of snow on
the ground in St. Albans after frequent snows during January.  

Because of the frequent thaws, there was never that much snow on the ground despite the amount of flakes coming from the sky.

The most snow on the ground in Burlington was briefly 18 inches. There were only five days during the month in which the snow depth exceeded 10 inches.

If you go a little higher in elevation, the snow stayed on the ground a little better.

On the final day of the month, there was 33 inches of snow on the ground in Waterbury, 31 inches in Pomfret and 30 inches in Sheffield. The summit of Mount Mansfield had an impressive 98 inch deep snow cover.

Northern New England had a lot of snow in January, and southern New England had very little. Boston only had 2.1 inches of snow in January. Providence, Rhode Island only managed 1.6 inches.

There's no such thing as normal, really, since the normal for any period is the some total of a month's ups and downs.

Still, we like to compare things to "normal." Especially as we look ahead into this new month.  February usually is the point at which we start getting past the heart of winter. By later in February, the sun feels a little stronger, and thaws become a little more likely.

Then again, it can get brutally cold any time in February. It has been known to get into the 20s and 30s below any time during the second month of the year in Vermont. We had something like ten mornings in a row in Vermont during February 1979 when the temperature stayed almost continuously below zero, bottoming out in the 30s below zero. Some of state's biggest snowstorms have come in February.

On the other hand, there's Februaries like 1981, in which temperatures were in the 50s and 60s for more than a week. Or February, 2017, when temperatures soared into the 70s in Burlington and Bennington. Or even last year, when Bennington topped out at a summery 78 degrees.

Of course, it's impossible to know what this month will bring. It's off to a somewhat chilly start this morning, but nothing out of the ordinary for February. It's going to warm up starting Sunday, and the first half of next week will feature thawing. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

This Could Be Vermont's Four Really Off The Rails Weather February In A Row

Day lillies bizarrely begin to sprout during all time
record February warmth last year. 

Forecasts for midweek in Vermont tell us  we'll be seeing temperatures in the 60s to around 70 by Wednesday in most of the state, which is really incredible for February. In fact, it would be unprecedented if not for last year.

If the forecast comes true, it'll make if the fourth February in a row that has rewritten, or at least altered, record books. One of those Februarys, 2015, was very cold. The other three are seeing record heat.

Let's get 2015 out of the way. It was a brutal February, the third coldest on record with a mean temperature of 7.6 degrees. That's nearly 14 degrees below normal. There were no extremely cold nights that month, nothing in the 20s to near 30 below zero.

But the cold was grindingly consistent. In Burlington, 17 of the 28 days that month had temperatures below zero.

Subsequent Februarys turn hot. The first week of February, 2016 saw record highs in the 50s. That week is normally the depth of winter, but I recall working in my garden, digging completely unfrozen ground as I prepared new perennial beds.  I'm so far north that I can literally see Canada from my house.  So that was a new experience.

February, 2016 ended up being the 9th warmest on record. It would have averaged even higher if not for a brief Valentine's weekend cold snap that brought temperatures into the teens below zero before readings quickly recovered.

February, 2016 brought heavy rains, too. Places like Hardwick and Springfield Vermont saw several buildings and businesses damaged by flooding. Rainfall in one storm that month amounted to as much as 2.8 inches in just over 24 hours. That's nearly double the amount of precipitation that usually falls in an entire February.

Garden work in far northern Vermont in umfrozen ground
early February 2016. At that time of year, the earth should
have been frozen rock hard with snow covering it, but
record heat changed that scenario. 

Then there was the piece de resistance, February, 2017, which really, really went off the rails. By the 23rd of the month, Burlington reached 63 degrees, breaking the old all-time record high for February of 62.

But we were just warming up. Literally. On the 25th, Burlington reached 72 degrees, shattering the monthly record. It was also 72 in Bennington during that hot spell, so both figures now stand as the warmest readings on record for anywhere in Vermont.

The warmth was so extreme that severe weather came all the way north into New England. It was so weird the first February tornado on record in Massachusetts damaged homes in the western part of the state.

Now we're waiting to see how weird this week gets. We'll keep an eye on it for sure!

Earth Was Surprisingly Warm In February, Various Measurements Show

Parts of eastern Europe, northwestern Siberia and
Alaska were especially warm in February, 2017

The Earth's climate change fever continued in February, as the month turned out to be the second hottest February on record for the globe.

It was also the fourth warmest month of any on record, if you look at it in terms of how far above normal the temperatures were.  

January, 2017 was extraordinarily warm, too.

The year is young, but so far it's not going to plan.

This year - 2017 was - and in most quarters is - expected to break a trend of recent super hot years by being slightly cooler than the previous year or years.

The year 2014 was the world's hottest on record. That is until 2015, with beat that record. Whoops! No, 2016 beat the the previous year for warmest on record. That's three years in a row that broke the world's heat record.

Virtually all climate scientists expcct 2017 to be abnormally warm, due to climate change. However, a big El Nino from previous years has ended. El Ninos tend to heat the atmosphere of the Earth, making hot times hotter.

This year began with a weak El Nina, which tends to cool the atmosphere a tiny bit. So 207 was widely expected to cool off a tiny little bit.  Yet, we're still remaining hot.

And now, some experts think a new heat-boosting El Nino might be brewing later this year.

Long-range forecasters caution that the possibility of an El Nino is still very uncertain for later this year. It's particularly hard to predict these things this time of year.

However, if an El Nino does develop, it would give a boost to global temperatures, which would give 2017 a shot at being another record hot year.

Very iffy at this point, but within the realm of possibility.

As I noted the other day, this climate change news comes amid a United States government that is totally hostile to the science.

The United States can't go it alone in battling climate change, obviously, but we need to be part of the effort.

The Earth's climate keeps showing signs of really being off the rails. Time for the United States to once again be the leader in protecting the world's security.

In this case, nuclear missiles aren't the problem. It's the stuff coming out of our car tailpipes.













Bill Mahar said it best in his monologue Friday. The Trump administration is like a person whose car is breaking down and "solves" the problem by putting black tape over the Check Engine light.

The February Heat Remains Ridiculous. I Have No Words....

A chance of severe thunderstorms today as far north
as Vermont, says the SPC. In February!!

The amazing February heat wave continued to mindbogglingly smash records across much of the eastern United States Friday, and some areas have one more day to go with this absolute ridiculousness.

Monthly all time record high temperatures always fall from time to time in various cities, but the sheer number of places that have had their hottest February day on record is just huge.

And some of those records were smashed by wide margins, and/or broken repeatedly over the course of a few days.

I counted at least 30 cities in the Northeast from Ohio to Massachusetts that tied or broke their all time February highs on Friday. That's a big number. That's on top of the dozens of cities, including Burlington and Montpelier, Vermont that set monthly record highs Thursday, or other cities in the Midwest Wednesday.

Some examples of temperatures Friday way far north would not have been the least bit unusual for July, but February. Just wow.

Among them: 74 in Albany, New York, 73 in Boston, and 71 in Buffalo (no lake effect snowstorms there yesterday, that's for sure!)

Other February record highs included 80 in Charleston, West Virginia, 77 in Erie, Pennsylvania and 78 in Cincinnati.

It got up to 107 degrees in southern Texas this week, which I think is a national record for United States's hottest February reading.

Here in Vermont, it cooled slightly in all but extreme southern parts of the state. It got up to 72 degrees in Bennington Friday, but most of the rest of Vermont was in the 40s and 50s.

However, more records will happen today. The warm front passed through Burlington, Vermont on its way north between 5 and 6 a.m this morning. At 5 a.m., it was 37 degrees in Burlington. The temperature jumped, incredibly, a full 18 degrees to 55 by 6 a.m.

That 55 ties the record high for the date in Burlington. We reached it by 6 a.m. Just wild.  r

There's also still an excellent shot at having the all time February high temperatures that were set Thursday in Vermont to be broken today.

For instance, in Burlington, the high reached 63 Thursday and the forecast high today is 65. Montpelier's forecast high of 64 degrees today would beat the February record of 62 set on Thursday.

The February heat isnt the only interesting bit of weather here in New England today. That flood watch is still in effect for good reason, given the fast-melting snow.

A long list of record highs in the East Friday.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier ro read. 

And that cold front that's coming. You sure will notice when the cold front comes in from the west later today.

The temperature will abruptly tumble, perhaps 20 degrees within an hour. There will also likely be a brief burst of very heavy rain and possibly damaging wind gusts with the arrival of the front.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center actually has all of Vermont in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms later today.

The SPC actually has southwestern Vermont, and a stripe from eastern New York to Virginia in a slight risk zone for severe storms, which is a step up from marginal, meaning there's a bit of a higher risk of severe storms there than in the marginal risk area.

The Storm Prediction Center even has a very tiny risk of a brief tornado as far north as southwestern Vermont. In February! Don't hold your breath for a tornado because the risk is extremely low, but it could conceivably happen anywhere from  southwestern Vermont all the way south to Virginia.

Still, it' extremely rare to have the Storm Prediction Center hold out the possibility of severe thunderstorms in Vermont in February. This is just amazing.

The timing of the cold front would take it into northern New York mid to late afternoon and Vermont's Champlain Valley late in the afternoon or very early evening, then through the evening in the rest of Vermont and New Hampshire.

Tonight will bring the biggest risk of flooding since the snow will have been melting all day and we'll get that burst of rain this evening. Mainstem rivers like the Mississquoi and Winooski would still be high and/or flooding Sunday morning.

Be careful on those low spots! And don't drive on flooded roads.

Following the front, temperatures will end up at just a little warmer than normal Sunday, then it's back to well above normal temperatures most of next week.

It won't be record warm next week but it will still be awfully mild for the end of February and the beginning of March.

In a subsequent post in the coming couple of days I'll explore whether this heat wave has anything to do with climate change, because I know a lot of people are asking.

Yesterday Was Vermont's Weirdest February Weather Day Even, More Weirdness Coming

Weather dogs Tonks and Jackson enjoyed the record
February warmth Thursday on their St. Albans, Vermont deck.

There's that cliche that says, "That was one for the record books," but that phrase is the only way to describe Thursday in Vermont.

What a bizarre weather day.' And more weirdness is coming fast. Also note we're under a flood watch, to complicate matters further. More on that in a minute.

The headline of course was the warmth. Burlington and Montpelier set records for their all day warmest reading for any February day.

It hit 63 degrees in Burlington, besting the previous high for any February day, which had been 62 degrees on February 19, 1981.

Montpelier reached 62 degrees, also breaking the record for hottest February day. The old record was 61 set in 1997.

St. Johnsbury tied its all-time monthly high temperature of 62 degrees. The high temperature in Rutland reached 67 degrees Thursday. Bennington got up to70 degrees- in February! .

Record highs elsewhere in New England include 68 in Boston and Manchester, New Hampshire, 66 in Providence, Rhode Island, 65 in Concord, New Hampshire and 64 in Worcester, Massachusetts.

Here in Vermont, Thursday was an absolutlely, perfectly normal day -- for mid-May.  It was hazy, warm and breezy. Notably, across northern Vermont, there were billowing towering cumulus clouds and some brief downpours.

The mix of sun and convective showers lasted most of the afternoon where I live in St. Albans

These types of showers are common during the warm seasons - late spring and summer, but very, very rare in February.

The weirdness goes on today and tomorrow. I'll have to paraphrase Donald Trump here and say the showers yesterday in northern Vermont were part of a so-called cold front that sank through Vermont last evening.

I'm calling it so-called because it's still spectacularly warmer than normal behind the front, just not record warm.

The front will come back at us from the south as a warm front today, triggering showers and maybe even some thunderstorms this afternoon.

Towering cumulus clouds near St. Albans, Vermont late
Thursday afternoon. Such clouds are common in the late
spring and summer, but not in February. 

Yes, maybe thunderstorms. That, again, is very rare in a Vermont February. (There were already thunderstorms this morning in Massachusetts and western New York)

Then we get back into the warm air late tonight and Saturday.

You know those all-time February record high temperatures set Thursday? They're going to be challenged Saturday.

Yep! There's a chance that those new February records won't survive two days. Another weird thing, for sure.

A strong cold front will come in late Saturday. There will be a burst of pretty heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night, possibly accompanied by another rumble of thunder.

That's part of the reason why we're under that flood watch. 

Snow has obviously been melting wicked fast the past couple of days and that will continue. The showers and possible thunderstorms later today will add water to the mix. Then we get the record high temperatures again Saturday, then that expected burst of rain.

Initially, the threat from flooding tonight and Saturday morning will come from water collecting behind ice jams in rivers as the ice breaks up.

Later Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday, rivers could flood in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine because of the runoff brought on by the melting snow and rain.

By the way, the storm system causing this wacky weather is expected to produce severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes in Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan. If Michigan gets a tornado today, it will be the earliest in the season for one in that state.

Further west, the storm is creating a big snowstorm. Yankton, South Dakota was at 75 degrees Tuesday. This morning, there's a fresh foot of snow on the ground. Quite a switch!

Next week, the weather in the Northeast will remain warmer than normal, though at this point I don't expect more record highs.

But the way things have been going, you never know.

February Is April This Year In Most Of The United States

Flowers bloom already in Falls Church, Va. Saturday.

It's been an incredibly warm February in most of the nation, as record high temperatures keep falling in a landslide.

It's hard to keep track of all the record highs that are being broken, and will continue to be broken over the next several days.

I'll only touch on some of this incredible warmth here because there's so many examples to choose from.

Saturday afternoon, the only part of the nation that was below freezing was the extreme northern tip of Maine, and maybe a few high elevations in the Rocky Mountains.

That's incredible for mid-February, when large sections of the northern half of the nation are typically below freezing all day this time of year.

Record highs Saturday included a springlike 70 degrees in normally blustery Chicago, That's only the fourth time since the late 1800s it has been 70 in Chicago during February.

Other record highs Saturday included 69 in Detroit and Cleveland, and 67 in Milwaukee and Toledo, Ohio. Even way up in the wintry Upper Peninsula of Michigan, it was a record 54 degrees in Marquette Saturday.

It was in the 70s Friday as far north as Rapid City, South Dakota.

Based on forecasts, Yankton, South Dakota, usually not the balmiest place in the world during February, will have had a full seven consecutive days with temperatures in the 60s to around 70 by Wednesday.

Last weekend, there was even greater extremes. It got to as hot as an unprecedented 99 degrees in Oklahoma.

Also last Saturday, Midland and Lubbock, Texas had their all time hottest February day on record. On February 10, Denver reached 80 degrees. That broke the record for the earliest 80 degrees there and was earlier than the previous record by a full month.

So far this year. through February 16  there have been 4,460 daily record highs at weather stations in the United States but only 1,085 record lows. Normally, those two numbers would be more or less even.

Even here in New England, which has had plenty of snow and winter storms this month, it's still mild. Burlington, Vermont got up to 49 degrees Saturday, despite more than a foot of snow on the ground that was refrigerating the air.

Despite it being the seventh snowiest February on record, temperatures for the month will end up well above normal.

Much of northern New England's deep snow cover will dissolve over the course of the next week as more thawing is likely.

As for other areas in the nation, expect plenty more record highs in the upcoming week.  It's going to be in the upper 50s for the next four days in Minneapolis, and in the 70s across a broad swath of the nation from South Dakota to Virginia.

The only other February I can think of that is remotely like this hot one was in 1981, when thousands of record highs were set coast to coast.

I'm sure millions of people are enjoying this warm weather, but there's a downside. I work for a company called Gardener's Supply, which offers gardening equipment for customers across the United States.

I'm getting many reports from customers in manh areas from Texas to New Jersey of flowers, fruit trees and leaves blooming weeks earlier than they normally would.

Inevitably, we'll get a wave of seasonable weather, or even colder than normal weather. Big sections of the country are in for lots of crop damage to fruit trees, not to mention the frustration of homeowers whose gardens will be damaged by this state of affairs.

This variable spring weather seems to have been getting more common -- Record high early season temperatures followed by killing frosts. There was widespread crop and garden damage in 2012 and 2016 across the Midwest, Northeast and South because of this type of weather pattern.

Thoughts On Just Ended Storm And Several Quiet Days Ahead (For Us, Anyway)

Snow is piled high on the back deck of my house
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

I returned from a trip to New York City to Vermont very late Wednesday night and, as expected, was greeted by quite a bit more snow, as we all know.

There was about 8.5 new inches of snow at my place in St. Albans, raising the snow depth to a little over two feet, something I haven't seen in several years.

The town of Lower Waterford, Vermont took the cake for most snow from this last storm, with 20.5 inches. Several places had over 10 inches of snow. 

Burlington, which had been lagging behind normal in snowfall for most of this winter, has now gone ahead of normal, with 59 inches so far this winter against a normal of 54 inches to this date.

February has brought 30.4 inches of snow to Burlington. Even if the Queen City doesn't get so much as one additional snowflake this month, it will still be the seventh snowiest February on record. (The snowiest February was in 2011 with 43.1 inches. I doubt we'll get that much this month but you never know.)

The Queen City will probably slip below normal for this winter's snowfall again over the next week or two as little snow is forecast for at least a week. The storm parade is suspended for now, and we'll have a temporarily quiet weather pattern for awhile here in Vermont.

Which might be a good thing. All this snow was timed deliciously for the President's Week holiday, perhaps the most important and potentially lucrative time of year for Vermonts ski industry.

The ski slopes are thick with wonderful powder, and I'm sure people will be flocking to Vermont, or already have. My  plane from New York to Vermont had plenty of tourists headed for the slopes, and I'm told hotels are booked all over Vermont.

Yeah, we can all be happy about that.

The deep snow cover has stopped just short of being too much of a good thing in Vermont, in  my opinion. I haven't heard of many roof collapses, but had we gotten another big storm or two, that would have been an issue.

(I know if we were to get another big storm, I'd have to shovel my large deck on my house, which would have been a huge chore, but for now, I'm going to let it go and see if does OK.)

The snow is quite deep in some areas, especially in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. As of yesterday, there was 45 inches of snow on the ground in Island Pond. (Bet that snowmobile mecca is happy with that!). Also, there was 43 inches of snow on th ground at Granby and 36 inches in Sutton.

In parts of Maine, the snow this February is something they haven't seen since 1969. Kingfield, Maine had 69 inches of snow on the ground this morning, according to the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine.

Over the next several days, at least in lower elevations, there will be some thawing  or at least settling of the snow. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will get to around 40 degrees, and after a cooldown to at or below freezing early next week, more thawing will come in after that.

Of course, winter is not over, and we could face more snowstorms very late this month and into March. We'll have to see how that plays out.

Oddly, Warm Winter Means More Epic Lake Effect Snows

There's not much ice in the Great Lakes, which means
lake effect snowstorms can still get really cranking even now.

Some areas near the Great Lakes, especially parts of northwestern New York near Lake Ontario, are getting epic lake effect snows this week.

There have already been reports of up to 18 inches of snow in some of the favored snow belt locations in New York.

Since the weather pattern supporting the lake effect is expected to continue for a couple more days, I would not be at all surprised if some spots in New York's Tug Hill Plateau pick up more than three feet of snow

It isn't always like this in February. During some winters, large portions of the Great Lakes have already frozen over by now. If open water is scarce because of the ice, not much moisture can be picked up from the lakes by cold northwest winds and deposited on shore in the form of lake effect blizzards.

However, it has been a warm winter. Huge expanses of the Great Lakes are still free of ice. That means the lake effect snow machine can still crank in late winter.

As of January 30, only 9.5 percent of the Great Lakes water was covered by ice. That's not the lowest on record for this time of year, but pretty damn close.

Ice on the Great Lakes will probably expand quite a bit this week, as there's a fairly cold weather pattern over the region. But still, you can't freeze things over that fast.

Deeper lakes freeze more slowly than shallower ones. Lake Erie, nearer to Buffalo, is shallow and is freezing over fairly quickly, so that's limiting the lake effect snow.  (There wasn't much ice in Lake Erie last week, but the past couple of cold days is making the ice extent there get bigger pretty fast.)

Areas south of Buffalo can expect several inches of snow this week from fairly lame snows off Lake Erie the rest of the week.

However, Lake Ontario is much deeper than Erie, so the snow machine will crank and crank but good.

Yesterday, the lake effect band was so intense that some of that snow made it all the way to central Vermont.

Even in cold winters like 2007, Lake Ontario doesn't necessarily freeze up all that much because it's so deep. In February 2007, a ten day lake effect snow siege dumped up to 12 FEET of snow on one part of northwestern New York.

Ironically, global warming could cause more lake effect snows than in the past. Warmer winters mean the lakes won't freeze over so much. Then, during those occasional cold spells that can happen even in toasty winters, you get the lake effect storms.

The only good part about the global warming aspect of that is a thaw will inevitably return to melt some of the excess snow.

This Winter Was The Hottest On Record. Seriously!

With the glaring exception of eastern North America
the world was wicked warm in February, 2015
says a new report from NOAA.  

My fellow Vermonters and my neighbors in New England will surely throw big, heavy but inexpensive things at me for saying this, but this now-concluding winter was the warmest on record.

Before the debris flies, I'm talking about the world as a whole having the warmest on record. New England and southeastern Canada were the glaring exception to this.  

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center released its closely watched monthly analysis of the global climate today said the period December 1 through February 28 marked the warmest winter on record for the globe. Their data goes back to about the late 1880s.

Overall, February itself was the second warmest on record for the entire Earth. Here where I live in little tiny Vermont, we endured our second coldest February on record.

For the United States as a whole, it was the 19th warmest winter on record. While New England froze, large swaths of the western United States had a very warm winter.

From the Climate Data Center report:

"In February, 2015, cooler to much cooler than average conditions overtoook the entire eastern half of the United States and the eastern third of Canada, with some record cold pockets seen around the Great Lakes region and parts of northeastern Canada near Hudson Bay. 

The majority of the world's land surfaces, however, were warmer than average, with much warmer than average temperatures widespread across Central America, northern and central South America, Australia, most of Africa and much of Eurasia, including a broad swath that covered most of Russia. 

In stark contrast to the eastern United States, the western United States was encompassed by record warmth. The warm-cold pattern over the country has been observed over much of the past two years."

By the way, that warm-cold pattern seems to be in a continual stuck position. March has been behaving much of the same way, and this pattern should hold at least through the first week in April, and probably beyond that.

I don't know what it will take to get it unstuck.

The NOAA report also said that February Arctic sea ice extent was the third lowest on record.

Confirmation: Yep, East Coast Very Cold, West Very Warm In February

Giant icicles on snowbound Boston buildings
last week after one of the coldest Februaries
on record.  

If you took all the temperature readings across the United States this past February and put them all in a blender, you'd find the average temperature in the nation for the month was right around normal.

Of course we all know that's not true.

In its latest report this week, NOAA's National Climate Data Center State of the Climate review shows that the Northeast had very close to a record cold February, where a good chunk of the West Coast was at record warmth levels.

Let's just say the nation's weather really, REALLY went to extremes during February. Each state in New England, plus New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, had their second coldest February on record.

New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine also had the coldest average daily high temperature of any February on record.

Meanwhile, California, Washington, Utah and Arizona had their hottest Februaries on record.

The continental United States only comprises roughly two percent of the world's surface, so the nation's extremes in February don't say much about how the world's temperature compared to normal during February.

Global temperatures were certainly warmer than the long term average, but we won't know by how much until detailed analysis comes out later this month.

Giant ice blocsk washed ashore on Cape Cod,
Massachusetts after one of the coldest Februaries
on record. Photo via Twitter, @Dapixara.  

March seems to be picking up where February left off in the United States. The month started with record cold across much of the eastern third of the country and some record warmth in the West.

This week, things have gotten mild almost everywhere, with near normal temperatures in New England, and warmer than normal conditions across the rest of the nation. More record highs will probably fall in the next couple of days in the western two thirds of the United States.

Then, starting next week, it's back to the old tricks. From about March 20 until at least the end of the month, it looks like much, much, MUCH below normal temperatures are due for the eastern half of the United States and much warmer than normal out west.

The focus of this pattern is the understandable and widespread frustration with the never ending winter in the Northeastern United States.

But the place to really worry about in this persistent eastern cold/western warmth arrangement is California.

Bizarrely, there was no snow on February 19 at the
8,000-foot elevation in California's Yosemite
National Park. Photo by Elizabeth Christie.  

The state has managed to get some rain this winter, but not nearly as much as usual under a persistent ridge of high pressure. Worse, the warmth has meant that whenever storms did arrive, they tended to drop rain, not snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

That's really bad, because California depends on water from melting snow in the Sierra in the spring and summer to satisfy its water needs.  The snow supplies about a third of California's water needs, says National Geographic.

The snowpack is near record low levels because of the winter warmth. Early March snowpack was just 19 percent of normal, and a tiny 5 percent of normal at one site east of Sacramento, National Geographic said. 

California's wet season usually sputters to a close in April, so the region is running out of time to accumulate more rain and snow.  Not much rain or snow is in the forecast for the next few weeks in California.

It's looking extremely ominous out there.

Wrap-up: Yep, February Among Most Brutal Months On Record In the Northeast

A road in Eastport, Maine on February 16.
in the midst of what is probably the most
extreme winter month on record in
New England. Photo by Bill Trotter/
Bangor Daily News.  

To wrap up, an incredible month just ended in New England, as any reader of this blog probably knows all too well.

Still, I can't get over how extreme February, 2015 in terms of cold and snow.

I'll nominate Bangor, Maine, as the epicenter of what has been a winter month that's almost impossible to describe in words.

So let's go to the stats.

When a weather station breaks the record for its warmest or coldest month, it's almost always be not much more than one degree. It's rare to have more than, say, ten days in a month that are more than 10 degrees warmer or colder than average and maybe one or two with a departure of 20 degrees or more from normal.

Bangor absolutely obliterated records. The mean temperature in February in this Maine city was 6.1 degrees, or 14.7 degrees below normal. (It's very odd for a month to be half that number of degrees warmer or colder than normal.)

February, 2015 broke Bangor's record for coldest month by a 2.3 degrees. Absolutely amazing. Every day during February was colder than normal, and all but four days were at least 10 degrees on the cold side.

Usually, a record frigid month is also quite dry, as there's a lack of storminess and moisture in these cold Canadian air masses. Not so in Bangor, which had 42.4 inches of snow in February, another record. Together with storms in January, there was a total of 50 inches of snow on the ground in Bangor as the month ended.    

Traffic on Interstate 95 near Bangor, Maine stalls
amid car crashes and heavy snow last week.
Photo by Brian Feulner, Bangor Daily News.  

Yep, that's more than four feet of snow that will have to get eaten up by spring weather before things can green up in Maine.

March is not off to a good start in that department. The temperature this morning got down to 14 below in Bangor, breaking the old record low for the date of 11 below, set in 2001.

Another one to three inches of snow is forecast in Bangor later today and tonight.

The stats from Montpelier, Vermont are also remarkable.

Snowfall in February across Vermont was above normal, but unlike Maine, wasn't extreme. But the cold was.

In February in Montpelier, eight days were at least 20 degrees colder than normal, including five consecutie ones from February 14 to 17. No fewer than 20 days were 10 degrees or more chillier than normal, including a nine day consecutive stretch at mid-month.

In Montpelier, all days in February were colder than normal. Temperatures never went above freezing.

Boston is closing in on its snowiest season on record. Numerous cities across the Northeast clocked their coldest February on record, or at least got close to it. (For the record, the closest major weather station to my house, Burlington, Vermont, had its third coldest February on record, and 7th coldest month overall.)

March isn't exactly coming in on a spring-like note. Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings early Sunday morning stretched from Texas, through the mid-Mississippi Valley, throughout most of the Ohio Valley and along the East Coast from the Carolinas to central New England.

Which of course means that New England's winter nightmare is not over. All the heavy snow on roofs is still causing structural collapses in the eastern part of the region.

At least 150 roofs in Massachusetts have caved in under the weight of feet of snow. Just yesterday, a large section of roof collapsed at a hockey arena in Canton, Massachusetts as a youth hockey team practiced inside. Luckily, everyone got out without injury.

More roofs are sure to go as another round of snow and mixed precipitation arrives today to add to the misery. Yet another wave of snow, ice and rain is due in the region Tuesday and Wednesday, which is sure to cause more problems.

People in eastern New England and parts of the Maritime Provinces in Canada are also worried about what will happen when the weather finally breaks. All that snow has to go somewhere. If it melts too fast, or heavy rains hit, there could be some catastrophic flooding later this spring.

So let's hope the region finally gets some sunny, warm weather, but too warm yet. We need a nice, gradual thaw. We need perfect maple sugaring weather. You know, highs in the 40s to around 50, overnight lows a bit below freezing.

We can also hope for some relatively normal weather for the rest of the year. New England has already had more than a year's worth of extremes in two months. We need to catch our breaths.

A Warm Cooldown: Global Feb. Temperatures "Only" 21st Warmest

The latest National Climatic Data Center global temperatures came out this morning, and worldwide, February, 2014 was the 21st warmest of the past 134 years.  

Two cold bullseyes, one in North America, one in eastern
Europe dragged down global temperatures a bit in
February, 2014, but overall it was a warmer
than normal month. Add caption

This represents a "cooldown" of sorts. The global warming denial club is going to have a field day with this, saying it's "proof" global warming is a myth.

But the data says no such thing.

February on a global scale was still quite a bit warmer than average, and it was the 348th consecutive month of worldwide warmer than average temperatures.

Most months in recent years have scored in the Top 10 warmest.  February's comparatively modest global warmth isn't a trend, though.

Now, if the world kept cooling down more and more month after month and year after year going into the future, that would be something to look at.

But the science so far tells me that continued "cooldown" won't happen.

It will be interesting how the rest of the months in 2014 pan out, especially if an El Nino develops. El Ninos tend to boost global temperatures a bit..

In February, 2014, central North America, parts of eastern Europe and northwestern Asia were very cold, compared to normal, while most of the rest of the world was warmer than. In some places, like Alaska, California and Scandanavia, it was way, way, way warmer than normal.

I'll be waiting for some analysis to share with you as to why this February didn't crack the Top 10 warmest on a global scale. But notice the extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. A wildly wavy jet stream that was stuck in place during February made some regions in the north hugely warmer than normal, while others were extremely cold.

I found it interesting that the data showed that worldwide ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record in February. But measurements taken exclusively on land showed terra firma was only 44th warmest on record in February, 2014.

Attention analysts who are above my pay scale:  Please offer more explanations as to why February, 2014 was wicked warm globally, but not near record warm like it's been in previous months.

Readers: I'll share any interesting information climate scientists offer.

Cold and Snowy, Yes, But the Worst of Winter is Over: A Love Letter To Late February

The temperature where I live in northern Vermont only got into the low 20s today. The snow is deeper than it's been all winter. It's going to go below zero again tonight.

It was only about 20 degrees today around my
house in St. Albans, Vermont, but the February sun
has gotten strong enough to start melting the
snow off the stone wall near the south wall of my garden shed.  

So it might seem strange to hear me say it, but the signs around me on this beautiful February day tell me the worst of winter is behind us.

Oh, I know there's plenty of winter left. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down to 10 or 20 below again before spring hits. Many of the biggest, baddest snowstorms we've had have come in late February and March.

But I do see winter's grip loosening. The sun feels much warmer than it did a month or two ago. The snow melts on the south sides of roofs, on the sunny side of snowbanks, and on steep slopes facing the south.

A cold 20 degrees really doesn't feel as bad as a cold 20 degrees did before Christmas, that's for sure.

I saw a goldfinch today. Their colors turn drab in the winter, but was that a bit of spring yellow starting to peek through on his belly?   And the chickadees are starting to break out their early spring songs.

I've noticed through the years the harshest winter cold ends around mid-February. The long spells of bitter cold below zero weather aren't as intense, and definitely don't last as long as they did in January.

For the record, the normal temperature in Burlington, Vermont today is three degrees warmer than it was in late January. That's not much, but it's a start.

When we get a half inch of snow in mid-February, like we
did last night, I don't obsess over clearing it out
of my driveway like I did in December.  I figure the strengtheing
late winter sun will eventually take care of it.  

This is the time for winter sports. The harshness of deep winter is diminished, the snow is probably as deep as it's going to get, and you can enjoy a full afternoon of the outdoors without worrying about it getting dark just after 4 p.m.

The sun set in Burlington, Vermont at 4:13 p.m. in mid-December. Tonight, it sets at 5:23 p.m. Twilight on a clear evening like this goes on until well past 6 p.m.

I don't mean to rain on winter lovers' parade. You still have plenty of days to enjoy it.

For those of you who are not really the winter type, though, hope is beginning to sprout like those flowers pictured in the seed catalogs flooding your mailbox.

You winter haters will have your share of disappointments with new cold snaps, new snowstorms between now and the time spring really sets in.

But you pretty much made it through another winter.

You can at least think about starting to celebrate.