"Ice Shove" Wrecks Minnesota Home; This Is A Weird Thing That Has Happened Before

Strong winds earlier this week pushed a ton of lake ice
into this Minnesota house. 

A perfect combination of wind and spring thawing shoved a bulldozer like wall of ice into at least one lakeshore home in Minnesota this past week.

The 10-foot high wall of ice crunched into the home on Lake Mille Lacs in Isle, Minnesota. Isle is little under 100 miles north of Minneapolis.  

Lake Mille Lacs covers about 207 square miles, and the town of Isle is on the southeast corner of the lake. The ice on the lake was weak from the ongoing spring thaw.

As Minnesota Public Radio reports, a warm, mostly sunny day with northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph on Monday pushed the wall of ice onto the shore in dramatic fashion.

This one smushed a deck and pushed in a wall of the Minnesota house.

Some people call these things ice tsunamis, because they do rise quite a way out of the water and go inland a fair amount like a slow motion, frozen tsunami.

Of course, ice shoves don't occur on every lake and they don't occur most years. You need the right combination of thawing ice that's ready to break up, a warm day, a strong wind and a shoreline to help steer the ice into big piles.

Other ice shoves have caused far more damage than this.

Lakes in Vermont aren't immune to ice shoves. There was a good one on Maquam Bay in St. Albans, Vermont on Lake Champlain in 2013.

Here's a news video from WCCO of the mishap:



An even worse ice shove hit the shoreline of Lake Mille Lacs in 2013:



Ice shoves can be pretty unpredictable, so you should stay away from them, as footage from this February, 2019 Lake Erie ice shove proves:



These things can move pretty fast, all things considered:

After A Long Break, Winter Returning To Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Weather dog Jackson inspects the bits of ice and snow that have
fallen on our St. Albans, Vermont property since Sunday.
More snow and colder weather is in the forecast. 

Our long hiatus from winter is just about over here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Yes, yes, I know winter returned with the ice in far northern sections on Sunday, but it's still mild. That won't last too long.

First, a quick review of this odd season.

It really has been a strange winter so far. It came in very early and very strong, with record cold temperatures and heavy snows starting in before mid-November.

The cold continued well into mid-December, making people think this would be one of the longest, coldest winters in memory.

Then the official start of winter - at least astronomical winter - arrived on December 21, and winter weather took a hiatus.

In Burlington, Vermont, only three days since since December 22 have failed to get above freezing.  So far, temperatures this month in Burlington are running a good ten degrees above normal.

There was only 18 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, Vermont as of yesterday. Normally at this date, there's about 42 inches of snow at that mountain snow stake. At this point last year, there was 64 inches of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield.

Then, to cap it off, we had that springlike record warmth Saturday, and on Sunday in southern New England.

True, we had more than our share of ice and sleet and schmutz here in New England since December 22, but you have to admit it's been darn warm!

The warm weather and the relative lack of snow is about to end. Normal winter cold and snow looks like it will make a grand return for pretty much the rest of the month.

Today and tomorrow in Vermont will be relatively mild, with highs in the 30s, and very warm (at least for January) overnight lows in the 20s.

But our unfriendly bugaboo freezing drizzle, which we had yesterday, a little bit today and a little bit more tonight, will linger. But we've had a bit of snow, too over the past 24 hours in Vermont.

That's the start of a process of rebuilding our lost snowpack. A little snow will come tonight along with that freezing drizzle, which will bring an inch or two of accumulation to much of the area.

A slightly stronger system Wednesday night will bring most Vermonters another two or three inches of snow, with higher amounts near six inches in some of the mountain ski areas of central and northern Vermont.

Then it turns cold later Thursday and Friday, with temperatures getting down to around zero at night and only making it into the teens at best in the afternoon.

Forecasters are also watching a potential storm for this weekend. It at least has the potential to bring us several more inches of snow, perhaps a decent dump. We'll see. Then it'll turn cold again after that storm

This forecasted wintry weather is pretty typical for Vermont in January. But it's definitely a change from what we've gotten used to over the past few weeks.

Spring Springs In Vermont; Some Flooding Risk, But So Far, Nothing Extreme

A muddy path through the snow in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard this morning. Hoping the warm temperatures over the
next couple of days gets rid of the snow, and we
could then move on into spring from there. 

It was blessedly warmish in Vermont this morning.  Not warm, not balmy, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'm sticking by my prediction of no subzero readings again in Vermont until next November at the earliest. Yesterday at 6 a.m. it was 9 below in Island Pond. At the same time this morning, Island Pond was 21 degrees above zero.

Not exactly toasty but, ahhhhhhhh.

You will now see signs of spring coming pretty fast and furious. Vermont style spring. You know, mud, impassable dirt roads, scattered flooding, that kind of pleasant stuff.

Also, nicer stuff. People in the warmer valleys will start to see the first hints of crocus or daffodil shoots coming up in warm, protected corners in the next couple of days. Already, morning bird song sounds like spring. Red wing blackbirds are all over the place, so they're optimistic.

Now's the time, though to begin watching for flooding. Might happen, might not. At least the start of this melt season looks pretty orderly and calm, which is a good thing. Temperatures through Saturday will be above normal, but not be a huge amount, so it won't be a big rush of meltwater coming down.

It is going to rain off and on tonight through Sunday, with gaps of drier weather thrown in on Friday. The rainfall through Sunday won't be immense, with the National Weather Service suggesting a range from a half inch or a little less in the southeast to to an inch in the northwest.

Long range forecast for April 4-10 has decent
chances of above normal temperatures in most
of the nation, including us here in the Northeast.
We'll see! 

By Sunday, we will be at risk of some flooding in and around Vermont, especially where ice jams remain.

But this upcoming storm seems mediocre enough so that at this point, the risk of high water seems mediocre, too. My guess is the usual low spots might have water, but we won't exactly have a disaster.  

Keep an eye on it, though. If the rain is much heavier than forecast, then it could get messy.

The first half of next week looks mainly dry, too. We'll have to suffer through a quick shot of cold air Monday (highs in the 30s, lows in the teens and low 20s). It'll warm up quickly by Tuesday to near normal temperatures -- highs in the 40s to around 50.

By that time, there will still be quite a bit of snow in the high elevations, so the flood risk will continue if there are any big rain storms. It's too soon to say if that will be the case.

Cross your fingers, though. It looks like a generally mild pattern once we get into April, if admittably iffy long range forecasts are correct. So maybe no mid-April snow and ice storms this year, like we had in 2018?

That would be nice.

Final Look At Vermont Snowstorm. And Yes, A Little More Snow This Evening

Quite a winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning
despite the fact it is March 24 - technically spring

It's painfully bright outside my St. Albans, Vermont home this morning. There's blue sky and bright sunshine. The fresh snow being hit by the high angle spring sunshine is blinding. (It will cloud up later, so the eyes will get a break. Meanwhile, sunglasses rule.)

We're not entirely done with the snow this weekend yet, believe it or not. No, there's no new big snowstorm coming, at least in the immediate future. But a strong cold front coming through tonight will drop at least a little more snow.  

MORE SNOWFALL TONIGHT EXPLAINED

Though the cold front is strong, the good news is it's starved for moisture. So nobody is going to get another foot or two of snow. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is saying most places in northern Vermont will get an inch or snow or less out of this cold front. Some mountainous areas could pick up a couple inches.

That forecast looks like it will be accurate. However:

Much like this big snowstorm we had Friday turned out to be a big overachiever, there is some evidence this evening's cold front could also give some of us a snowy surprise or two.

As I said, the cold front is pretty strong. It will be moving into some pretty unstable air. This combination could really kick off some heavy snow showers or even squalls, despite the relative lack of moisture in the air.

Jackson the Weather Dog appears to be trying to measure the
water equivalent of the wet snow in his St. Albans, Vermont
driveway this morning. 

Some of us, especially in the northern half of the state, could get some bursts of heavy snow. That would quickly mess up the roads with ice and poor visibility.

It could also lead to some surprising accumulations. I'm quite sure the NWS meteorologists who are way, way more skilled than me, are right that most of us will only get an inch or two of snow, or even less.

But there is the potential that a few places in the North could pick up several inches of snow if any of the squalls end up moving sluggishly.

This kind of thing happened on the night of March 16 when a few places in the northern mountains and the Northeast Kingdom picked up a half foot or more of snow. I'm not saying that will exactly happen again, but, again, some people might have some surprise shoveling to do again.

The snow will tend to diminish in intensity as it heads south over Vermont overnight, so southern areas will get little or no snow.

A MELTDOWN COMING?

If you're sick of snow, and my raising the possibility of more snow tonight has depressed you, now I have something a bit uplifting.

After tonight, it looks like there will be no precipitation through at least Friday. Starting Monday, each day at least through Thursday will be sunny to, at worst, partly sunny.  It will start off cold Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures staying in mid and upper 20s in cold northern areas, to low to mid 30s for most of us, to upper 30s in the warmer valleys, especially south.

That will allow winter sports enthusiasts to continue enjoying all this snow. Plus the strong late March sunshine will erode the snow in sunny corners on both those days. That will give us hope.

Then it will start to warm up. Quite a few 40s will pop up Wednesday with a good shot of 50s by the end of the week. So places with little snow on the ground will have bare ground again by the end of the week. And in snowy low and mid Vermont elevations, the snow cover will take a hit.

No rain is in the forecast through Friday night at the earliest, so in the short term, the meltdown won't cause any real flooding problems. Even as temperatures are expected to stay near or above freezing, even at night Thursday and Friday nights.

No promises on flood threats after that. It all depends on rain and melt patterns and paces.

IMPRESSIVE SNOW STATS

Hmmm. No signs of daffodils in front of my St. Albans, Vermont
house this morning, despite the fact that is is technically spring.

Snow stats are impressive right now in some spots for the end of March.  In some high elevation towns, the snow cover is deep, deep, deep.

Averill, Vermont, way up there in the Northeast Kingdom, had a four feet of snow on the ground as of Saturday morning.

Some other towns in the Northeast Kingdom had at least three feet of snow on the ground. The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield had exceeded 10 feet by the time the snow stop flying Saturday.

Seasonal snowfall for the winter of 2018-19 is now up to 101.8 inches in Burlington, which is the 12th snowiest on records dating back to the 1880s. We could move up in those rankings, because it usually snows at least a little in April. Just sayin.

At least I'm pretty sure Burlington won't have the snowiest winter on record. That was 145.4 inches in 1970-71. At least I HOPE we don't get another nearly four feet of snow before the season finally wraps up.

Depending on where you are in Vermont, it looks like different seasons. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington received 6.7 inches of snow out of the storm. But along the Lake Champlain shoreline in Burlington, accumulations were closer to three inches.

By the end of the day Saturday, the March sun had melted some of that snow. There were big bare patches already, and it really did look like March.

Meanwhile, in harder hit places, like my place in St. Albans well east of Lake Champlain, that foot of snow we received still had me in a deep winter wonderland by the end of the day Saturday.

I whined about the snow, but it could be worse.

I talked via phone with a customer at work yesterday in South Lake Tahoe who reported there was still nearly six feet of snow on the ground outside her home.

The Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in California has had 648 inches of snow so far this winter. That's 54 FEET of snow. 

The deep Sierra snow is good news for Californians who want a water supply for the rest of the year. The snowmelt will feed reservoirs during much of 2019.

During the height of the California drought, water managers saw unprecedented bare ground this time of year at a high Sierra measuring site. This year, on about the same date as the 2015 measurement, they found 113 inches of snow on the ground, or about nine and a half feet of snow. That snow had the equivalent o 43.5 inches of rain in it, so there will be plenty of water coming from the Sierra this spring and summer.

The First Real Vermont Spring Snow Melt Attempt Is This Week

As seen through my back deck railing, a flock of turkeys makes its way
Sunday across my very snowy back yard in St. Albans, Vermont. Me,
and the turkeys, will be dealing with a lot less snow around by
the end of the week as a real March thaw approaches. 

Pretty much on schedule, this will be the week in Vermont where the white winter landscape will start to transition to the mud season scenery of early spring.

The sun has gotten stronger, and you might have noticed the beginning of this change Friday and Saturday. Despite temperatures that barely made it to the freezing mark, the sun really began to chew up the snowbanks.

With warmer weather on the way this week, expect more of the snow to disappear, and more mud to appear.  Some of us might not welcome the mud, but many of us will enjoy the milder temperatures. The maple sugar industry will be happy with this.

Like all March thaws, this one will come with its share of setbacks and stalls. The first one came yesterday, when some areas - like my place in St. Albans, Vermont - failed to rise much above freezing. Light snow and sleet left us with a slightly thicker winter cover than the day before.

But it was already above freezing before dawn today, and yesterday's sleet is beginning to dissolve.

Today will be a typically moody March day. There will be plenty of clouds around, and some rain showers, mixed with a few snowflakes. In the valleys, temperatures will reach to near 40 degrees, so a bit more snow will disappear.

It's almost always colder in the mountains, and today the temperature drop with elevation is even steeper than usual. That means anything that fall in the higher elevations will add a bit to the snow pack up there.

Tonight, the snow showers will really crank up. However, during the first part of the night, it will be warm enough so that the the snow won't stick well in the valleys, but piles up in the mountains.

Eventually, late at night it will go below freezing, so we'll have another minor setback to the snow melt. Valleys will accumulate a minor dusting to two inches of new snow, will the mountains pick up one to four inches, with locally higher amounts.

Tuesday will be chilly, but not that bad. Temperatures will be about ten degrees cooler than normal. In January, that would have meant highs only in the upper teens, but now, in March, it means highs near 30. As the sun comes out in the afternoon, a few snowbanks will erode just a tiny bit more. Gusty winds will temper the sun's warmth. Again, moody March.

Then the warmth really starts. Wednesday afternoon looks like a beauty, with sunshine and highs near 40.  For skiers and other winter sports enthusiasts, it will be one more perfect outdoor day.

The temperatures will keep going up, so that it will be in the 50s by Thursday. There will be a couple of overnight thaws, too. With temperatures remaining in the low 50s on Friday with some rain showers, the snow pack will really diminish, especially in the valleys. Things will look a lot different at the end of the week than they do now.

There is the possibility of scattered lowland flooding and ice jam flooding due to the thaw at the end of the week.

This is Vermont, however, so there's nothing to prevent a big snowstorm from replacing the lost white cover.  It's too soon to know if or when that would happen, but one computer model suggests we could get a decent sized snowstorm around March 19. All the other computer models say no, we're safe from that. Time will tell who's right, but at this point, I wouldn't worry about it at all.

Winter's back will be broken this week, though, so any of the inevitable setbacks to our spring thaw will be temporary. Just think, within a month, some early green shoots will begin emerging from perennial gardens, meaning we survived another winter.

Midwinter Snow Conditions In Vermont Finally About To Melt Away

Still looked like mid-winter in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard yesterday, March 26, but a lot of this snow will
disappear this week. Which is good, because there's
a perennial bed under the snow in the foreground. 

For skiers and riders in Vermont, March is a wildcard. In some years, like the torrid 2012, record warmth ends the season way too early for some enthuisasts.

Other years, like this one, are glory days for skiers and riders. The mountains pretty much had nice midwinter conditions almost all month, without the slush and puddles and melting snow like many Marches.

The snow was deep, the temperatures were comfortable, what was not to love? Us valley dwellers who aren't as into winter sports were complaining, but oh, well.

Those happy days of winter sports will start to diminish today, as the first significant spell of seasonable warm weather arrives in the North Country.

Don't worry, some ski areas will surely continue will into spring. A few likely past Mother's Day. But the thaw is commencing.

Yesterday and today, I'm betting the sap was, and is, flowing like gangbusters from the sugar maples. Good news for the maple industry. It ain't over yet, as the general weather pattern forecast favors temperatures that won't premature end the sugaring season.

Still, we've got several days of warm-ish temperatures and periods of rain to get through. In places like the Champlain Valley, most of the snow will disappear, so you'll have to put those cross-country skis away.

The first round of rain, tonight, will come down lightly. And actually change to snow for a time in the mountains. But accumulations will be light, and the warmth will resume tomorow.

Temperatures will range in the upper 30s and 40s in the mountains daily through Friday with 50s in many valleys. Another, somewhat bigger round of rain is likely to come in Thursday afternoon and night to wash more snow away. It won't be an extreme storm, but it also won't snow.

Thawing can mean flooding, but in this case, it doesn't look very worrisome. The warmth isn't extreme - it can get into the 70s this time of year, but this time it won't anywhere close to that. And the rain later this week won't be heavy. Most of us will get less than half an inch.

Rivers will rise around Vermont and the rest of the North, but any flooding looks like it will be minor.

As far as you skiers and riders go, we might be finished with powder days, but don't worry, your season is not over. There will be quite a lot of snow left over in the mountains after this thaw. And it looks at this point like the first ten days or so of April will generally be colder and wetter than normal in the Northeast

That almost certainly means additional snowfalls, especially in the mountains during the first half of April. And the remaining mountain snowpack during the opening days of April likely won't diminish much more.

Wide Ranging Storm Putting The Brakes On Much Of The United States

Shreveport, Lousiana woke up to a snow whitened city
this morning, which doesn't happen all that often down there. 

Most of the southern and eastern United States is suffering through a winter storm that on paper would not seem like that big a deal, yet it is.  

That's mostly because the storm is affecting a lot of people who have little experience with winter weather. Plus the storm, though not particularly strong, is affecting a wide area where lots of people live.

Winter storm warnings, watches and winter weather advisories this morning extended from Texas to Maine. Impressive, considering no area other than parts of New England are expecting more than six inches of snow.

A huge area of the South is being affected by this, though, and there is a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. These are areas that don't get a lot of winter weather.

Except this year, of course. This is the third time this winter that snow and mixed precipitation has gummed up the South. Some cities, like Houston, have now had measurable snow twice this winter, the first time snow has happened twice in the same winter since 1987.

A couple inches of snow was all it took to shut down some Interstate highways in Louisiana on Monday.  The governor or Alabama declared a state of emergency - all because of the one to three inches of snow expected there.

I know, I know, one to three inches of snow up here in Vermont is considered a great big yawner, but to Alabama, without snow clearing trucks and such, it's awful.

Actually, this storm in the Deep South will drop less snow on the region than the one that hit down there on December 8. But this one will be worse because it's colder down there than it was in December. Snow back then hit road pavement and melted. This time, the snow is hitting the pavement, then freezing.

Snow with this system extended into the Midwest,
conttibutting to this wreck in Indiana. 

This storm is going to consolidate into a nor'easter off the East Coast. It's still not going to be the Storm Of The Century, not be a long shot, but southern and central New England in particular will get a fairly decent dose of snow out of this.

This decent snowfall will get southern Vermont, too. Which is good for them, because they largely missed out on the snow that northern sections of the state received this past Sunday.

During the day Wednesday, most of Massachusetts, far southern Vermont and New Hampshire and parts of Connecticut can expect four to eight inches of new powder from this storm. Not a huge deal, but enough to disrupt travel a bit. And give the ski areas a bit of a boost.

As you keep going further north here in Vermont the snowfall totals will diminish. Expect maybe four inches or so Wednesday around Rutland, maybe two inches or so near Burlington, and as little as an inch by the time you get up toward St. Albans and Plattsburgh, New York.

I noted yesterday and cold air is ending for us and won't come back anytime soon. In fact, the chilly air pretty much everywhere east of the Rockies is about to ease as the pattern shifts for a while into one that favors warm air in much of the nation. Warm for this time of year, anyway.

People in the South who aren't so enthused about the snow and sleet today can look forward to temperatures in the 60s by the weekend. Up in the northern Plains, which has been under siege with wind chills in the minus 40s for the past few days, are getting a break, too.

Frigid Grand Forks, North Dakota, for instance, which was 17 below with a wind chill of minus 32 this morning, can expect a high of 37 degrees above zero by Friday.

We're going to get another thaw here in Vermont, too. Bad news for winter sports people, but good news for people who want a break, and are sick of spending a zillion dollars per second heating their homes.

This next warm spell doesn't look as intense as last Friday's. I doubt we'll get into the 60s, that's for sure. But this one will last longer. It'll get into the 30 by Friday, and likely 40s in many places around the North Country Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

After that, it will probably turn cooler, but not frigid. In fact, many forecasts indicate we've got not more Arctic air to talk about in Vermont through the end of January.

However, I will not make any promises about February.

Most Insane Part Of Arctic Blast Is Today, Relief Coming, I Promise

Early this morning, I took the dogs outside to do their business at my St. Albans, Vermont house.

Flooding, ice chumks, debris, stuck cars and snow
remained Friday in coastal Massachusetts, still
recovering from the nor'easter and near record storm
surge and now, bitter cold. 

Needless to say, Jackson and Tonks did NOT stay out long, not with a roaring wind, blowing snow, subzero temperatures and a wind chill in the minus 30s.

I even had trouble closing the door when I got the dogs inside. Blowing snow was getting into the door jam and freezing. It's that bad.

Yes, here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast, today is insane, no two ways about it. And we're tired of it. Aside from a rather poor excuse for a break in the cold this past Wednesday, we've endured this since December 26 - nearly two weeks.

The end of this Arctic siege is coming though. It will very likely be a temporary end, as it's still early winter, but we'll take it.

As we keep saying, you want to be super careful today in northern New England, much of the rest of the Northeast and southeastern Canada. Don't go outside if you don't have to, and if you do, cover up everything. Skin can easily freeze in less than a minute in these conditions.

Check on your elderly neighbors, too, They can get in trouble quickly in this weather. They can have problems with heat, or busted pipes or something else. Make sure they're warm and safe.

By the way, there's been a lot of nonsense online and in the media as to whether this cold snap and big nor'easter is a sign there's no global warming, or that climate change is entirely to blame. Look for a reality check on this ridiculous jabber in the next day or two.

Here in Vermont, temperatures will stay below zero all day. If Burlington, Vermont stays below zero all day today, which is highly likely, it'll be the first time that's happened since January 22, 2014. (It used to happen pretty much every year, but winters have generally gotten a little warmer.)

The wind will continue to crank all day, too. So there will be little, if any improvement from this morning's conditions.

The news for tonight is a mixed bag. On the plus side, the National Weather Service has backed away a bit from what they expect to be cold overnight lows. Instead of 20s to upper 30s below zero, depending on your location, we're now looking at something like 15 to 30 below. Vaguely better.

But that's because the wind will keep going for a good part of the night, keeping the atmosphere mixed and interfering with radiation of what little heat there is out to space. The wind will die down before dawn, and that's when temperatures will really plunge. Exactly how cold it gets where you are depends upon how early the wind dies down. The earlier the calm winds arrive, the colder it will get, generally speaking.

Temperatures will start to warm late Sunday morning and afternoon but you probably won't notice it. When a cold snap like this one ends in Vermont, I like to say it "warms up cold" especially in the Champlain Valley.

What happens is, the temperature indeed rises. But as the warmer air begins to flood in, strong southerly winds also arrive, most noticeably in the Champlain Valley.  That means wind chills become an issue again.

Sunday, then, won't be a nice day. There will also be a lot of blowing snow around. Remember, the wind Sunday will be coming from the opposite direction as it has for the past two days. That means snow that blew into protected areas will blow around again. Look for snowy, icy patches on roads, drifts and areas of poor visiblity.

It's going to snow again, too, on Sunday night and Monday. Not much. We're looking at one to three inches most places.

By Monday afternoon, however, the warm air will have flooded in. Look for temperatures somewhere in the 25 to 35 degree range Monday. That's above zero, my friends.

If the temperature rises above freezing in Burlington Monday, that would mean we spent 15 consecutive days below freezing. That's not an amazing record, though. That would tie us for the 63rd longest continuous stretch below freezing. The record is 52 days, during the tough winter of 1976-77.

Another cold front will come through Tuesday, but don't worry, this next cold front is really lame. You really won't even notice it. High temperatures Tuesday will be near 32 degrees and "cool" into the 20s Wednesday. Not bad.

Toward the end of the week - Thursday and Friday - we could genuinely get into some thaw conditions in Vermont, with temperatures possibly in the 30s to low 40s during the day. The only problem is mixed precipitation or even rain is a good bet on those days.

Even if there's plain rain, it's been so cold lately that the ground temperatures are frigid. Say it's 38 degrees and raining Thursday afternoon. We'd still be getting freezing rain because the precipitation would likely freeze on contact with pavement. But at least it will be warmer!

This pattern change is good news, though, for most of the country. The eastern half of the nation has been in a deep freeze for so long now. This new weather pattern will keep almost the entire nation warm.

It also has been scarily dry in California this winter. Wildfires lasted into the end of December, which is unprecedented. This new weather pattern makes rainstorms and mountain snowstorms a very good bet for all of California in the upcoming week or two. They only drawback to the California rains is that, starting Monday, locally heavy rains will cause potentially dangerous debris flows in the vast areas hit by wildfires between August and December.

This warmer, and for California, wetter pattern looks like it will last at least into the third week of January. (We'll get brief cold spells here in Vermont, but nothing extreme.) Who knows, though, what we'll deal with in late January and February? At least we're getting a break, though.

Kinda Close To Average In Vermont, For A Change

Enough snow has melted in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
so I can sort of see my raised beds again. But there's
still plenty more snow to melt. 

The snow in northern Vermont - at least in the valleys - is finally showing signs of melting away.

There's still plenty left, to be sure, but it's declining.

For once, with weather not too far from average for this time of year, the melt will continue.

Unless we get a nasty surprise Friday night. More on that in a moment.

A cold front will arrive today, accompanied by more showers. Nothing terribly heavy.

Tonight, colder air filters in, with yes, more snow. Most places won't get much of anything tonight and tomorrow morning, but the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the northern Champlain Valley could pick up one to three inches of wet snow. There might be even a little more than that way up in the mountains.

Any new snow in the valleys will begin to melt in the afternoon Wednesday as temperatures get to near 40. That's a bit chilly for this time of year, but not terrible.

Sugarers, look out for a great run on Thursday. The day will start cold, but sunshine will boost temperatures well up into the 40s by afternoon.

Then.....Friday. There's some sort of storm coming, but details are sketchy on how heavy the precipitation will be and in what form.

At this point the best chances of several inches of snow are, of course, up in the mountains. However, the temperature is looking marginal Friday night for rain or snow in the valleys.

There's a good bet there will be some snow in the valleys Friday night, but will it be just a few wet snowflakes mixed with the rain, or many inches of heavy wet snow, or something in between?

I have no idea. Neither does anybody else. Stay tuned on that one

Quick Monday A.M. Update: As Expected, Freezing Rain East

Drizzle, a muddy driveway and very slowly melting
snowbanks this morning at my house in St. Albans, Vermont.
Further east in Vermont, however, it's freezing rain.
Be careful out there! 

The forecast issued yesterday for this morning worked out just as expected.

There's lots of patchy rain, drizzle, freezing rain and freezing drizzle across the North Country this morning.

Almost all of the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York is above 32 degrees, so freezing rain isn't a problem there.

There is freezing rain, however, in parts of the Adirondacks, in  Vermont from the Green Mountains eastward and in much of central and northern New Hampshire and on into Maine.

Basically, if you're headed to or from places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, White River Junction or Springfield, Vermont this morning, watch out for plenty of slick spots. The state highway trucks are salting the roads, but there is only so much they can do.

It's telling that the Vermont highway truck drivers are having to put chains on their tires this  morning, meaning it's very slick.

If you can postpone driving in central and eastern Vermont and other freezing rain areas until late morning, you'd be better off.

By noon if not sooner, everybody should have gone over to plain rain. It'll be a rainy, damp, chilly day with rain around and highs not getting much above 40 degrees, but it at least we won't be adding more to the deep snow pack.

The forecast is still on track for a slightly cooler than normal, but not frigid work week. The mountains could pick up a couple of inches of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, but there won't be much, if anything for snow in the valleys.

It looks like some sort of storm will come along Friday and Friday night, and we'll have to watch that one. Temperatures will be close to cold enough for snow. The early bet is rain in the valleys, with soime snow possible there Friday night, with more accumulating snow in the mountains.

That's just an early guess, so stay tuned on that one.

A Few More Random Thoughts On That Big March Snow

As of dawn today, I was pretty much dug out from  the
27 inches of snow that landed on my St. Albans, Vermont
house this week.

I hope you're not too sore from all that snow shoveling after, as we've noted one of the most intense snowstorms in Vermont, New York and Quebec history. 

Snow continued to pile up along the western slopes of the Green Mountains into Thursday morning, leaving a whopping storm total of 58 inches at the Bolton Valley Ski Area. That's almost five feet!

Other random thoughts:

SUNSHINE:

Although this snow isn't fully going away any time soon, the March sun is our friend, at least if you want to see some of the snow disappear.

It's going to stay cold, with temperatures staying below freezing today. It'll remain colder than normal with temperatures barely above freezing Saturday through Tuesday afternoons before another bitter Arctic blast arrives next Wednesday. (Sigh.)

But the sun is getting stronger this time of year, and you'll see some of the snow banks retreated bit by bit as the sun melts parts of them. Sunny corners where the heat collects will get some melting, too. And the snow will keep settling, so it won't seem so deep.

The sun will melt the snow more effectively than it would have in January, despite the lingering winter chill.

The bottom line: The skiers can keep enjoying their powder for awhile, but we valley dwellers will see a little bit of the snow disappear over the next few days, even if much of it remains.

HOWEVER, MORE SNOW?

Forecasters for now have dropped the idea of a substantial snowfall this weekend in Vermont, but I'm not convinced we're completely in the clear

We definitely won't get another tremendous snow, but southern parts of Vermont, and southern and eastern parts of New England, for that matter, still face the chance of more snow as a nor'easter begins to crank off the coast.

Without going into details, the weather setup is incredibly complicated this weekend - more complicated than the weather leading up to the last big storm.  The best chance of escaping the weekend with absolutely no snow is northern areas.

Southern Vermont still could be in play for a couple more inches by Sunday morning. We'll see.

MONTREAL MESS

The big story from our neighbors in Quebec was the havoc the storm played in Montreal and other towns.

Montreal got close to a foot and a half of snow. One of the worst incidents occured on Highway 13, when 300 cars got stuck overnight in the storm. The people in the cars were cold, for sure, but luckily, none to them were seriously injured.

It turns out two selfish truckers are largely to blame for that mess and might face criminal charges, says the Montreal Gazette.

Two trucks got stuck, and tow trucks arrived to get them out of the way. But the truck drivers refused to cooperate, saying they didn't want to be responsible for the cost of the towing. All those cars got stuck behind them, and the chaos ensued.

There's also lots of recriminations over why the highway wasn't shut down sooner, why police didn't force the truck drivers to get towed, and especially why it took from evening until about 4:30 the next morning to evacuate all those people stranded in cars, reports the Montreal Gazette.

Sounds like a lot of people screwed up with this one.

FLOOD OUTLOOK

With all this snow on the ground, a few people are probably asking: Are we at risk for spring flooding?

The answer is, we're a little bit more at risk than we were a week ago, but I definitely wouldn't panic.

Spring flooding in Vermont usually comes when ice breaks up in rivers, or heavy rain falls on warm days on a melting snow pack.

As in any season, we'll get flooding if we get a sharp warmup with lots of rain. But if there's a nice orderly freeze/thaw cycle, then don't worry.

Some people might remember March, 2011 when we got a snowstorm almost as big as the one we just had this week.

Frequent, damaging flooding occurred that spring, and Lake Champlain rose to record heights, causing lots of destruction on the shoreline.

The difference is, in 2011, there was already a lot of snow on the ground with a high water content in the mountains even before that snowstorm hit.

Then, we had record amounts of rainfall in April and May. Inevitably, we had a lot of flooding.

There's not nearly as much water locked up in mountain snows this March as in 2011. And I sincerely doubt we'll break rainfall records this spring, though I suppose anything is possible.

My advice? Don't worry unless the weather changes in a way that favors high water.

Less Vermont Snow Than Forecast, But That Expected Cold Air Sure Is Rushing In

Web cam image from 9 a.m. this morning looking west
from the University of Vermont in Burlington showed
breaks in the clouds as this morning's storm departs.
Cold air was flooding in as photo was taken.  

Kind of a bust forecast, at least at my place in St. Albans, Vermont.

I fully expected to wake up to two or three inches of snow topped by a thin layer of sleet and freezing rain, but that didn't happen.

Instead, across Champlain Valley and much of the rest of northern Vermont, the storm turned out to be mostly sleet, freezing rain and rain, with just a little snow.

A few places did get an inch or two of snow. The most I've seen so far is 2.4 inches in Elmore.

The forecast for northern areas had called for two to four inches of snow before the mixed precipitation arrived.

But warm air streaming in several thousand feet above the surface flowed in faster than expected, and the storm went a little further to the north and west than predicted, hence the lack of snow.

The National Weather Service in Burlington and most other area meteorologists had seen this trend starting yesterday afternoon and adjusted snowfall predictions downward. (Originally up to 6 inches was predicted in northwestern Vermont, but the NWS said yesterday afternoon there would be less snow than that.)

Roads were terrible across much of Vermont during the predawn hours and during parts of this morning's commute because of the sleet and freezing rain that came down after midnight.

Most of the precipitation is over and now, a part of the forecast from yesterday that was spot-on is now happening.

As of 9 a.m. today, a great gush of cold air was flooding into Vermont behind the storm. Temperatures were falling below freezing at this point, so any water left on roads will freeze, so you still want to be careful if you're out driving.

There might be some snow showers around as this cold air floods in, but it won't amount to much.

Unlike the storm prediction from this morning, I'm extremely confident that we are now starting a midwinter style cold wave that will last into the weekend.

This won't be extreme, but it will definitely be winter the next few days. In Vermont, it'll get down to a few degrees either side of zero tonight, tomorrow night, and maybe Friday night, too.

High temperatures Thursday will only get into the teens, and in the 20s Friday. Again, definitely cold for March, but not even close to record breaking cold.

It does appear like a strong nor'easter will get going well off the coast of New England Friday. At this point, it looks like it will way too far south and east to affect Vermont, but it might clip Cape Cod with some snow.

Then, as I noted yesterday, a warm up will start. Look for highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s Sunday, upper 30s and low 40s Monday. By Tuesday, readings could break 50 degrees once again.

I'm also sticking my neck out here, but except for the cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom which might get below zero later this month, the next few days will probably be the last chance of subzero cold in Vermont this winter.

Variety Pack Storm Affecting Vermont Now Through Thursday

Traffic moved slowly down the hill on Fairfield Hill
Road in St. Albans, Vermont as snow piled up
quickly to nearly two inches deep. It will
have changed to rain by afternoon.  

If you like the weather to change, this is the storm for you, fellow Vermonters.

I woke up this morning to a fairly heavy, wet snow, mixed with a little sleet at my hacienda in St. Albans. It was still coming down as of 7:15 a.m. and we'd accumulated 1.7 inches already. Roads are slippery.

If it hasn't already done so where you are, the snow will go over to sleet and freezing rain, then to rain pretty soon.

If you haven't left for your morning commute yet, be prepared for a slow go of it. The road crews are out, but it's still iffy out there.

The snow and ice will change to a light, cold, but not freezing rain this afternoon, so people who like this brief winter wonderland better get out there now and enjoy it because it's going away pretty soon.

Those of you who managed to squeeze out a couple inches of fresh powder won't get much more before the changeover to ice, then rain.

Temperatures will keep rising tonight as that strong storm system passes to our west. It will draw lots of warm, wet air ahead of it into our neck of the woods.

As you may have heard, this storm has caused a lot of tornadoes across the South, and will do so again in the Mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic coasts today. The unstable air associated with this will scream northward all the way to us later tonight and tomorrow.

Don't be at all surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two or three with this. It's unusual to have thunderstorms with this kind of system get north to Vermont this early in the season, but there you go.

In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms extending as far north as Rutland, Vermont. I don't think I've ever seen the Storm Prediction Center entertain the notion of a severe thunderstorm in Vermont in February. Incredible!

If it does thunder, it will be twice this winter it's occured. A somewhat similar storm touched off Vermont thunderstorms on January 10. An odd winter indeed.

At least any thunderstorms we get with this storm won't contain any tornadoes like down south, so that's a good thing.

Temperatures will briefly skyrocket again on Thursday, reaching the 50s again in most of Vermont. That would be the 16th time since December 1 it's gotten to 50 degrees or higher in Burlington. That's an awful lot of warm days for a Vermont winter.

There's going to be quite a bit of rain with this thing. The NOAA's national site calls for more than two inches of rain in much of Vermont, though the National Weather Service office in Burlington thinks it will be more along the lines of three quarters of an inch to 1.5 inches of rain.

Under normal conditions for late February, when there's a lot of snow on the ground, an inch of rain, temperatures in the 50s and snow melt is a recipe for a somewhat nasty flood. But there's hardly any snow on the ground, so the flooding won't be that bad, if we get any.

Rivers will sharply rise, and the Otter Creek in Rutland County might actually get to minor flood stage.

Do note the ground is frozen, so a lot of water will pool in low spots rather than soak into the ground. So beware, because the sudden lake in your backyard might end up flowing into your basement. Get those sump pumps ready!

Even in such warm winters in the Green Mountain State, the balminess never lasts and that will be the case here. The storm's cold front will bluster through by Thursday night, dropping temperatures back down below freezing by Friday morning in most spots.

There will be a little snow with this cold front, with a dusting in some of the valleys and maybe a couple inches in the mountains. No big deal, but be prepared for some ice on the roads Friday morning as Thursday's rain freezes and a little snow comes down on top of it.

Heading into the weekend, Vermont can expect some fairly average weather for late February, with highs in the upper 20s and 30s, lows mostly in the teens and maybe some snow showers around here and there.

From Frigid To Messy Icy Wet Big Warm Up In The Northeast (Southern Tornadoes, Too!)

Lots of winter weather alerts (in blue and pink)
covered the eastern United States this morning
as yet another storm plows through. 

UPDATE: 2 p.m. Monday.


The amount of severe weather in the Gulf Coast states appears to be more extenstive than I, and other forecasters expected.


I've seen several tornado warnings in parts of the south and I've seen at least two reports of confirmed tornadoes on the ground.


Shortly after 1:30 p.m., I noticed reports of a large and dangerous tornado approaching Rockport, Mississippi.


Let's hope it lifted before reaching town.


The threat of torndoes will continue in the deep south through the rest of the day.


It's also shaping up to be a big mess around the Washington DC area and nearby Maryland and Virginia. Several inches of snow have fallen, and it looks as if they'll get several hours of rather heavy freezing rain later this afternoon and tonight, before an eventual changeover to rain.


Roads will be horrendous, and there may be issues with broken trees and power lines in that region later on.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


Yesterday, the National Weather Service national map had the blue shade of wind chill warnings and advisories covering virtually all of the Northeast.

Today that map still has a blue coloring again for almost the entire region, but the shade has changed. It's now not for wind chills, but for winter weather advisories and winter storm watches.

It's going to be messy, as it always in on those occasions when the winter temperature skyrockets from deep Arctic chill to substantial thaw, as it will here.

THE SET UP:

A storm is forming in the lower Mississippi Valley and will head northward through late Tuesday, when it'll go into eastern Canada.

Unlike many nor'easters that moved northward off the coast this winter, this storm will track inland, along the Appalachian mountains, very roughly on a track from Atlanta, Georgia to Burlington, Vermont. (The storm could go several dozen miles west or east of this line, you can never predict these things precisely.)

Huge amounts of moisture will be flung well north of this storm as it gathers itself in the Southeast today and tonight, and that precipitation will continue as the storm moves on a beeline toward southeastern Canada late Tuesday night.

OK, WHAT DO WE GET?

Snow and mixed precipitation have already broken out in Virginia and parts of the Carolinas where, winter storm warnings are up for as much as seven inches of snow, followed by ice accumulations today.

All up and down the Eastern United States, all the way to New England and southeastern Canada, snow will start today and tonight, then, from north to south, change to sleet and freezing rain, then rain.

For pretty much the entire eastern United States, this means a long, sloppy, icy dangerous morning commute Tuesday morning.

Up in New England especially, even after the precipitation changes to rain, there's still going to be trouble for awhile. We had that Arctic outbreak which brought record lows to some towns.

It was in the teens and low 20s below zero again this morning across most of northern New York and northern New England. So even when temperatures rise above freezing, the rain will freeze on a lot of that superchilled pavement.

If you see the temperature is between 35 and 40 degrees or something like that tomorrow as temperaures rise in New England and much of eastern New York,  don't assume the roads are just wet. They might be glare ice. Sidewalks in particular won't thaw fast. Especially if you're a little unsteady on your feet, tomorrow might not be a good idea to walk into town.

By mid to late afternoon Tuesday the temperature contrast across much of the Northeast  will be something to behold.

In eastern New England where temperatures in many areas were in the single numbers and teens below zero Sunday morning and close to zero this morning, readings will shoot up into the 50s to possibly low 60s Tuesday afternoon. That's quite a weather whiplash!

This surge of warm air in eastern New England might be accompanied by strong damaging winds, as the storm system really winds up.

It's always colder on the west side of a storm track. That means it'll stay cold in western Pennsylvania and western New York. Winter storm warnings are up for the western third of New York, as a foot of snow might come down with this thing.

In northwestern New York, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley, snow might change to a period of heavy freezing rain, so there's worry that trees and wires could come down there as ice accumulates. A winter storm watch is in effect there. 


By the way, south of the storm, severe weather is possible along the Gulf Coast today. Strong thunderstorm winds, hail and maybe a couple of tornadoes might blossom amid the rain and storms from the Louisiana/Texas border to the Florida panhandle.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE STORM?

The quick answer is, not much. Wednesday, the storm will be lumbering north through eastern Canada

In New England, it will remain fairly mild Wednesday, but gradually cool down under somewhat gusty west winds. A few snow showers will probably dust the northern mountains.

A quick shot of cold air will come in for Thursday and Thursday night but it won't be nearly as cold as it was this past weekend.

Next weekend looks mild, with some snow and rain showers scattered about the Northeast, more so the further north you go.

After THAT, the weather pattern looks like it might be active, but I can't tell you much more than that It's too far into the future to offer a precise forecast.

My guess is temperatures will be on a rollar coaster with cold snaps interspersing with thaws. There will likely be precipitation chances every second or third day for the rest of the month, but there's no telling what kind of precipitation or how much yet.

December Thaw At North Pole Worrisome, And Has All The Weather Geeks Talking

The area of green you see curling up from the Atlantic
Ocean up to the North Pole indicate the rare
thaw this week at the top of the world.
The pinks and purples represent the more typical
minus 20 or so readings up that way 

This morning, it's was just a degree or two above freezing at the North Pole.

It gets above freezing there in the summer all the time, but in Dark December? Most observers have never seen such a thing.

Writing in Slate, Eric Holthaus quoted James Morison, the principal investigator of the Nortn Pole Environmenal Observatory, who said he never heard of temperatures above freezing in the wintertime there.

Its usually about 20 below at the top of the world this time of year. The North Pole is deep in winter darkness, so the sun surely can't heat things up.

After all, when we get our worst cold waves here in tropical Vermont and elsewhere in the good ole' USA, the air comes straight down from the North Pole.

So what the hell?

There's an incredibly strong storm in the North Atlantic, fed in large part by the massive storm that unleashed tornadoes and flooding in the United States in recent days. It's so strong that it flung a warm front all the way to the North Pole. Air from near Spain ended up there, and so it's warm.

It's one of the strongest storms on record in the North Atlantic, and is pummeling Iceland with hurricane force winds, and slamming flood-weary Britain with gales and more heavy rains. (The British Met Office names winter storms. For the record, this one is named Frank.)

Of course, scientist, climate change experts and plain old weather geeks like me want to know why this storm is so special, and why it made it so warm at the North Pole. It's warmer there than it is Oklahoma City this morning.

El Nino, that cyclical patch of warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, gets blamed for everything, including Donald Trump, so why not blame the North Pole heat wave on that?

The current El Nino is the strongest on record, and probably contributed to that epic storm in the United States. Since that big U.S. storm was a key ingredient in the giant storm in the Atlantic Ocean, the El Nino connection is plausible.

However, El Nino usually doesn't influence the weather in the North Atlantic and Europe as much as it does in the Americas, so the connection here is possibly iffy.

Environmental blogger Robert Scribbler worries the severe storm and the push of warm air far into the Arctic is a symptom of atmospheric changes wrought by global warming.

Ice melting off Greenland appears to be helping change ocean currents and creating a zone of colder than normal water in the North Atlantic. This, in turn, might be shifting atmospheric currents to create stronger storms in the North Atlantic, and sometimes causing those storms to fling warm air toward the high Arctic, goes the theory.

Additionally, some scientists think climate change is weakening the jet stream up north, allowing storms like this to punch through some warm air, or displacing the "polar vortex" southward on occasion, causing issues like the big New England arctic freeze and snow attack last winter.

This idea is still being tested and debated in the scientific community, but signs are pointing in this direction.

Of course, we have to be careful about blaming global warming on individual weather events. All kinds of forces drive individual storms and weather systems. This could well be a fluke, just a weird moment of Arctic heat driven by a strong storm and maybe El Nino.

However, there does seem to be a rising tide of more and more frequent weird weather events. This North Pole thaw certainly qualifies as weird. These trends could be pointing to global warming messing around with the already chaotic physics that is the world's weather.

A Tiny Break From Winter Siege For Some, But Misery Spreads And Break Ends Fast

The snow banks around my house in St. Albans,
Vermont are getting fairly high now, but
at least I was able to get out and shovel
the driveway today without instantaneously
freezing to death.  

It's amazing, when you're under a record breaking siege of cold and snow, what a slight relaxation in the misery can do for one's mind.  

I live in St. Albans, Vermont. I'm complaining a lot about this winter, but my area hasn't been hit nearly as hard this month with incredible winter weather as many other places.

Snowfall here in St. Albans has been heavier than normal this winter, but it's nothing like Boston and Maine.

But January was quite a bit colder than normal, and February will easily end up being one of the top three coldest on record in Vermont.

Yesterday, we had perhaps three inches of snow, and wind gusts over 40 mph took that snow, and the snow already on the ground, and heaped it into huge drifts on my driveway. Ugh.

But this morning, the sun came out, winds were light, and temperatures "soared" way into the 20s.

Never mind that high temperatures this time of year should be in the low 30s here this time of year, never mind that biting, subzero cold and winds will return tonight for an extended say (AGAIN!)

It was just a sense of relief to go out and shovel snow in the driveway and not in a grand rush because I'm freezing my tush off in subzero cold.

With temperatures in the 20s, I was able to carve away snow that was kind of in the way that I had left from previous storms because I didn't want to brave the elements.  I took off my hat and outer jacket midway through the shoveling,  because for once today I was getting warm from the exertion.

I let the dogs out, and instead of hurriedly doing their business and racing back to the door, they frolicked in the snow, rolled in the powder, chased snow balls, and playfully flicked pawfulls of powdery snow at each other.

The welcome break extends up and down the East Coast this Sunday after a rough Saturday of snow, ice, terrible roads, crashes and general misery. As of late morning, temperatures were above freezing all the way up to Boston.

It's unclear if Burlington, Vermont will make it above freezing this afternoon, which would snap a 27-day consecutive streak of subfreezing weather.

Of course, this is only a very temporary reprieve, and not much of one, quite frankly given how it's so brief, and temperatures aren't really above normal. As I said, we'll take anything we can get.

The weather isn't exactly gorgeous in the East everywhere, either. JFK Airport closed for a time this morning after early morning snow squalls swept through New York. It's above freezing there now and the were clearing the runways as of late morning, and delays are expected to continue all day.

In West Virginia, the brief spell of above freezing weather is prompting flood alerts, because water from melting snow and ice is sitting on roadways. The storm drains are clogged with ice.

The next Arctic blast was already in the Plains and Midwest late Sunday morning and is heading quick. Winter storms of snow and ice are blossoming along the perifery of the cold air. ]]

(Luckily for New England, the expectation, or a least hope, is that the cold front tonight will drop just flurries, and another Arctic front on Wednesday will just leave behind light snow and not spin up another nor'easter. It looks like no nor'easter Wednesday, but there's still a few questions about that.)

Today, winter storm warnings and watches, freezing rain advisories and winter weather advisories are up for a broad stretch from Colorado, through most of Texas, parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas and on into Mississippi.

The icy scene in Monterey, Tennessee yesterday.
Photo from Putnam County (Tenn.) EMS. Add caption

In Dallas Sunday morning, it was raining and temperatures were falling through the 40s. By tonight, sleet and freezing rain will plaster the Dallas area, and winter storm warnings are up as a result.

The roads will be almost impassable, and power failures are quite likely, especially just north of Dallas.

Just ask Tennessee how bad an ice storm can get. Parts of that state got two rounds of freezing rain in the past week, and some entire towns lost electricity as trees and power lines collapsed under the weight of heavy ice.  

To make matters worse, it finally got above freezing in much of Tennessee Saturday amid heavy rain.

The rain, the melting snow and ice, and the frozen ground not allowing anything to soak in all contributed to flooding in Tennessee and surrounding states.

It looks like the next winter storm building over Texas will largely miss Tennessee, but it will be extremely cold there this week, along with much of the rest of the eastern United States.

The overall weather pattern, with the big warm ridge in the western United States and the big frigid dip in the East appears like it's going to continue well into March, so expect lots more Arctic weather and bad winter storms for awhile.

This radio station transmitting tower collapsed
under the weight of ice during freezing rain
Saturday in Tennessee.  

There are some signs that the whole ridge-dip arrangement wants to shift a bit to the west. That's still a bit uncertain, and how it will affect actual conditions on the ground also have uncertainties.

The shift will mean the core of the coldest weather would shift a little bit away from the East Coast and toward the Midwest and Plains, though the East will probably remain cold going into March.

This little readjustment could also mean the storms on the East Coast might come closer to the coast, or even inland.

Again, no firm forecasts here, but this little shift could mean rain (and possible flooding) in eastern New England. It could also mean heavier snows in interior New England, including Vermont. (Most of the snow storms have given Vermont only glancing blows over the past month.)

Still, take heart. Even if the worst of the weather pattern keeps going for several more weeks, the sting of this awful weather will become a little less painful.

Spring is on our side. The chances of above freezing temperatures between cold snaps will continue to increase as the February and March sun grows stronger and stronger.

For instance, take this worst-case scenario. Last year, Burlington, Vermont had its coldest March on record, but the temperature still managed to get above freezing on 19 days that month.

That's not impressive, but it's better than how things are going now.  And we can always hope this March won't be as cold as last.

As we keep heading toward spring, the chances that rain, not more snow, could fall with storms as we go through March will also increase.  And if it does snow, at least it will start to melt almost right away after the storm is done, instead of just sitting there for weeks on end.

Early spring this year looks like it wil approach with frustrating reluctance. But as today's semi-OK weather on the East Coast, and here in St. Albans demonstrates, we'll all take hint of spring we can grab.

Springlike Christmas Season To End As Winter Reasserts Itself

My back yard, St. Albans, Vermont, buried
beneath 15 inches of wet snow on Dec. 13.  

The temperature has been continuously above freezing in normally wintry Burlington, Vermont since early Tuesday morning and won't get below freezing again until Sunday afternoon or evening.

That's a remarkably long thaw for this time of year, especially considering the normal high temperature at the end of December is around 30 degrees.

It's also remarkable that less than two weeks ago I had a thick 15 inch cover of heavy wet snow on m property in St. Albans, Vermont.

Yesterday, I was able to get to some autumn lawn raking I didn't get to back in November. Yep, the snow is pretty much gone.

But winter is about to make its inevitable comeback here, and in the rest of the country, and in other parts of the northern hemisphere as well.

Winter is already firmly entrenched in some parts of the country. It's in the single numbers, with even some below zero readings noted in the Northern Plains this morning. That's not particularly remarkable for this time of year, but it's certainly winter.

Much of California and Arizona is under freeze and frost warnings as a cold wave has settled in there.

The chilly weather is spreading across the nation, and by the time New Year's Eve rolls around the entire contiguous lower 48 United States will be colder than normal, or at least near normal in a few spots.

Yesterday, less than two weeks after the above photo
of my snow-buried back yard in St. Albans, Vermont,
I was raking leaves on that very same lawn. Big thaw, no?

Luckily, this cold snap isn't like some of the ones we had last winter, the one where "polar vortex" became part of the weather vernacular.
I see few if any daily record lows being set anywhere in the country during this cold wave, except maybe a few in the desert Southwest.

It looks like repeated cold shots will come into the nation well into January. But that's fairly typical of any winter.

Unlike the unrelenting cold in the eastern two thirds of the nation last winter, the cold waves will come to any one location, last a couple days, and then it will warm up, then it will turn frigid again.

Rinse and repeat.

The most interesting weather over the next several days might be a nasty snowstorm that develops in the mountains of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.  Given the cold snap under way in that portion of the country, snow might fall even in the lower desert valleys.

Las Vegas, Nevada will probably go below freezing in the next few days, ending a record streak. As of today, there have been 379 consecutive days there where the temperature has never gotten below freezing. The only record of 378 days was in 2012.

Las Vegas will also have its latest first freeze of the season on record. The old record date was December 20 2012.

Winter is moving into Europe, too. A sizeable chunk of the United Kingdom is struggling with icy, snowy roads after what had been a mild start to the winter.

Some long range models for a week or so down the road bring snow to a lot of areas around the Mediterranean Sea, too.

We're getting into January. It's winter. We'll have to get used to it for awhile.

Still Looks Like Winter, But Dangerous, Weakening Lake Ice Says Spring

We're a week into spring now, and around Vermont, temperatures were in the mid-winter single numbers either side of zero this morning.

Ice fishing enthusiasts on Lake Champlain near
Colchester, Vermont in February, 2012.
The ice might have been safe then, but
the warm late March sun is making lake
ice unsafe now.  

There's still plenty of snow on the ground, so it doesn't look at ALL like spring.

But don't let looks fool you. I noticed the Vermont Department of Public Safety and National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont put out a notice yesterday warning of increasingly dangerous ice conditions on the lakes.

The lakes and ponds look every bit as solidly frozen as they did a month ago. But looks are deceiving. Even on cold, subfreezing days this time of year, the sun is strong.  The dark grey ice near the bottom of the ice layer, near the water, can collect heat from the sun.

So the ice might be thinning and weakening from the bottom up. What looks like solid ice to us, us we just walked on a week ago, might be too thin to handle us now.

That means it's time to get off the ice in the Great White North. That's whether you're on Minnesota's 1,000 lakes, the deep lakes of the Adirondacks, and the many fishing ponds and lakes across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

In Vermont and New York, Lake Champlain hasn't frozen over to this winter's extent in years. A lot of people have taken advantage of the novelty by walking out there in big groups. Probably not a good idea now, as the ice can break under an entire group, and then who will rescue them?

It's also about time you get your fishing shanties off the lakes, too. Most northern states have a deadline of about now to remove them.  If they fall through, you have to get them out and that could cost TONS of money.

It's going to warm up over the next few days, so ice will keep getting more and more unsafe.  The time to walk on water is over, folks.

Take it as a sign of spring. We take what we can get when spring is off to this slow a start, right?