Last Gasp Of Mega Storm Brings Squirt Of Spring Into Vermont

I spend an entire winter shoveling snow off my driveway, them
when it's warm and sunny like Thursday I throw it back on
to melt it quicker (Big snowbank in front of the house
sometimes contributes to basement flooding when it melts
so I try to proactively get rid of it.)

I was outside around my house in St. Albans wading through the snow and doing some projects here and there yesterday afternoon.

It wasn't exactly t-shirt weather, but temperatures got into the 50s with at least occasional sunshine, and I was working pretty hard. I found myself comfortable, doing my stuff in a t-shirt, no coat.

It was heavenly. Like being freed from prison, which to me was the coats and jackets I've seemingly constantly worn since late October.

Today will be even better here in the Green Mountain State, except for those next to rivers prone to ice jams. There are some light morning rain showers around, lame leftovers from an unseasonably early swarm of tornadoes in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana yesterday. (I'll get to that in a minute.)

The remains of that giant storm in the middle of the nation is pumping warm air from the south over our winter-weary landscape and souls.

Sunshine will break out again by afternoon, and in many places, including the Champlain Valley, temperatures will probably get past 60 degrees. That will be the first time since October 19 that has happened.

The only drawback is the snow is melting fast, especially in the valleys. Ice is up to a foot thick or even more on many Vermont rivers. The snowmelt will make river level rise, which will break up the ice, and create ice jams here and there.

Bends in the river and obstructions like bridges are the most likely places these ice jams can form, but  really, they can take shape anywhere. We'll want to hope the ice jams don't get going anywhere near populated areas, as these jams can produce sudden, destructive flooding. The ice jam that flooded downtown Montpelier in 1992 in the most vivid example.

Flood watches are up for most of Vermont today and Saturday to highlight the risk of these ice jam floods.

The warmth won't last long. Saturday will be close to a seasonable 40 degrees. The Sunday through Tuesday will be quite chilly. Remember, though, that we are well into March, so the bite has been taken out of winter cold snaps. So we'll have highs a few degrees either side of zero and lows in the upper single numbers and teens.

As far as snow goes there will just be some inconsequential flurries around.

This cold snap is actually a good thing. A day in the low 60s and a long period of continuously above freezing temperatures can make maple sugar producers nervous. You need freezes. This multi-day freeze will help recharge the maples for renewed sap runs.

At this point, it looks like the middle and end of next week might be ideal for those maple producers. High temperatures by then are forecast to rise into the 40s, with subfreezing readings at night. Perfect for the sugarers.

THAT STORM

Widespread flooding in Nebraska Thursday. 

The storm that explosively turned into a monster in the middle of nation Wednesday weakened rapidly on its trek through the Great Lakes and into Canada on Thursday.

However, it still had enough oomph ahead of its cold front to spin up a number of tornadoes from Alabama to Michigan.

There were 14 tornado reports Thursday, though National Weather Service meteorologists will fan out today to determine which storms were actually tornadoes and which were damaging straight line winds.

The Michigan tornadoes were fairly rare: It's odd to get them that far north this early in the season. Although at least a couple Michigan houses were badly damaged, no injuries were reported.

Tornadoes also struck near Paducah, Kentucky and Cullman, Alabama, causing added damage.

Flooding from heavy rain and snow melt continued in Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska and some other areas. At least six river gauges in the three states showed record flooding and 20 or so recorded record flooding.

Some of the flooding came on fast, says the Weather Channel. Residents of one small Iowa town were given just 10 minutes to flee.  A third of Norfolk, Nebraska, population 24,000, was evacuated.

The Omaha World-Herald reported one flood related death, and said the Missouri River would reach record levels in parts of eastern Nebraska. That would put parts of Interstate 29, the major north-south corridor in eastern Nebraska under water.

The water along the Missouri is overwhelming flood control dams. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said they must increase water releases at Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, South Dakota because so much water is coming through. These releases will contribute to the Missouri River flooding in Nebraska, but there really isn't anything anyone can do. There's too much water.

One bright side is the nation is now getting into a temporary break from all the storminess of the last several months. High pressure will control most of the nation over the coming week, which means nobody in the Lower 48, with the possible exception of Florida, will have heavy precipitation in the coming seven days.

Kinda Close To Average In Vermont, For A Change

Enough snow has melted in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
so I can sort of see my raised beds again. But there's
still plenty more snow to melt. 

The snow in northern Vermont - at least in the valleys - is finally showing signs of melting away.

There's still plenty left, to be sure, but it's declining.

For once, with weather not too far from average for this time of year, the melt will continue.

Unless we get a nasty surprise Friday night. More on that in a moment.

A cold front will arrive today, accompanied by more showers. Nothing terribly heavy.

Tonight, colder air filters in, with yes, more snow. Most places won't get much of anything tonight and tomorrow morning, but the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the northern Champlain Valley could pick up one to three inches of wet snow. There might be even a little more than that way up in the mountains.

Any new snow in the valleys will begin to melt in the afternoon Wednesday as temperatures get to near 40. That's a bit chilly for this time of year, but not terrible.

Sugarers, look out for a great run on Thursday. The day will start cold, but sunshine will boost temperatures well up into the 40s by afternoon.

Then.....Friday. There's some sort of storm coming, but details are sketchy on how heavy the precipitation will be and in what form.

At this point the best chances of several inches of snow are, of course, up in the mountains. However, the temperature is looking marginal Friday night for rain or snow in the valleys.

There's a good bet there will be some snow in the valleys Friday night, but will it be just a few wet snowflakes mixed with the rain, or many inches of heavy wet snow, or something in between?

I have no idea. Neither does anybody else. Stay tuned on that one

Record February Heat Now Invading New England

Here's what my driveway in St. Albans, Vermont looked
like exactly a week ago today. Scroll down to see how much
has changed within a week. 

The record warmth that has bathed much of the nation this week is making its way into New England as we speak.

As the warmth melts the snow and expected rains move in over the weekend, there is a risk of flooding in parts of northern New York, Vermot and perhaps other sections of New England.

Wednesday was just a foretaste of the balmy weather. It got up to 54 degrees in Burlington, Vermont Wednesday. That wasn't a record high, but it was normal weather for April, not February.

Today, we should get even hotter than that in Vermont and other sections of the Northeast. Burlington stands a great chance of breaking its record high for the date of 56 degrees today, given that the temperature was already up to 52 degrees as of 10 a.m.

Same view of my driveway today as the snowy scene above
A lot has changed in a week, hasn't it. 

With breaks in the clouds, I wouldn't be surprised if parts of Vermont and surrounding areas flirt with the 60 degree mark today.

The all time high for any day in February in Burlington is 62 degrees, and we could conceivably reach that record today or Saturday. Iffy, but possible.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has issued a flood watch for northern New York and the northern two-thirds of Vermont from Friday evening through Sunday evening.

Snow cover in the valleys has already taken a beating. There was 15 inches of snow on the ground in Burlington Saturday and only four inches Wednesday.

Still, there's plenty of snow left to melt, especially in the high elevations, so there's going to be quite a bit of runoff. Additionally, the ground is largely frozen, so very little water will soak in.

There won't be all that much rain until Saturday afternoon across Vermont, but today's near record warmth, light rain on Friday and more record warmth Saturday will break up ice on rivers, leading to the risk of ice jams.

It will be slightly cooler Friday behind a weak cold front, but still much warmer than normal. Then that cold front will come back as a warm front Friday night, leading to more record warmth Saturday.

If Burlington ties or breaks its all time monthly February high this week, we'll join a growing club.

Hey, why not? Other cities in the path of this warm burst have already set February monthly records, including several cities in Wisconsin Wednesday.

Milwaukee got up to 71 degrees and Madison reached 68 degrees for new February records on Wednesday. Green Bay, Oshkosh and Appleton, Wisconsin also reached all time February records. So did Ottumwa, Iowa, where it got up to a summery 79 degrees.

Many dozens of daily record highs were set Wednesday in a broad stretch from Brownsville, Texas to Watertown, New York.  

Later Saturday and Saturday night, we'll get a burst of rain as a cold front approaches. The rapid snowmelt, combined with more than a half inch of rain will cause at least minor flooding on area rivers. Some rivers like the Winooski and Mad rivers could experience moderate flooding.

Plus, there could be some pretty serious flooding immediately upstream from any ice jams that form.

It'll turn sharply colder late Saturday night and Sunday amid some gusty northwest winds. But even then, it won't be all that cold for late February. Probably close to normal for Sunday, then back aboe normal next week.

It won't be record warm next week, but it will be pretty mild.

Sugaring season sure has gotten off to an extremely early start in Vermont. Let's hope sugar makers have already started collecting sap. If this keeps up, the season could end awfully early.

We'll have to wait and see on that one.