A Welcome Rinse, And Then A Hot Repeat ThIs Afternoon

I awoke to the delicious sound this morning of rain drumming on the roof of my St. Albans, Vermont house.

The weather deck of our place in St. Albans, Vermont was tropical
humid and wet this morning after some welcome showers.
More heat, humidity the rest of the day, into tomorrow, I'm afraid. 

I've been constantly whining about too-dry weather in Vermont since May, so this nice round of downpours will shut me up for a little while.

I'll still cry about the hot weather - more on that in a minute - but this was one of the better rains of the summer.  

That's not saying much, but I'll take it.

The showers were mostly focused along and north of Route 2, so the southern half to two thirds of Vermont missed out.  But the showers this morning were widespread, and many areas got a few hours of rain, sometimes heavy.

As of 8 a.m., Burlington had received just over a half inch of rain. That's not exactly an incredible amount, but still manages to make this the wettest day of the month.

The showers were clearing out by mid-morning, setting me up for my hot weather whine.

We all felt the humidity, even during those showers. The weather disturbance that caused them is zipping off to our east.  The air mass hasn't changed since yesterday, except for the fact that it's even more humid than it was on Sunday.

Today will be the 32nd consecutive day in Burlington in which the temperature has not fallen below 60 degrees. Only one other year, back in 1898, had a longer streak, with 37 such days.   Also, Burlington got above 90 degrees yesterday for the 16th time this year.

Hot summer, anyone?

Before the next weather disturbance in the pipeline comes through, it looks like we will get at least some sunshine, so once again, the warmer valleys will probably hit 90 degrees.

Heat advisories are up for the valleys of western Vermont from north of Burlington to Massachusetts, and for the Connecticut River Valley from Brattleboro to north of White River Jumction. Between the hot air and the humidity, the heat index will be between 95 and 100 degrees.

The rest of Vermont won't quite meet the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will still be damn uncomfortable.

Another one of those pesky weather disturbances will approach us this afternoon.  Combined with the hot, humid air, scattered thunderstorms will erupt very nicely.  Of course, the word "scattered" should tell you 1. Your weather reporter here has a scattered brain and 2. Only some of us will get a storm.

A small minority of these storms could contain strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire, northern and western New York and most of Maine, are in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today. 

That means there will probably some isolated, rather short-lived episodes of severe storms here and there today.   It's possible some of the area might be bumped up to the next level of risk, called "slight" but that just means a slightly greater coverage of severe storms. This potential upgrade is just speculation on my part. to be honest.

An alleged cold front is coming through tomorrow, but don't break out those ski parkas.  Just like a cold front exactly a week earlier, any cooler air will lag far behind the front, so Tuesday will be another very warm, humid day. Some 90s might pop up again in southeastern Vermont. Southern New England will flirt with 100 degrees in spots.

On the bright side, you'll start to notice the humidity come down late in the day, especially north and west.

Then we get another round of average summer weather, just like we did during the second half of last week.  Another rinse and repeat.

Except after today, there won't be much rinsing in Vermont.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily Tuesday through Thursday, but don't hold your breath.  It will trend drier and warm by next weekend.

As we head into early August, it looks like we might go back into an above normal temperature/below normal rainfall regime again.  Time will tell.

Unlike some chilly seasons in the rather distant past, this will be another year in which we Vermonters won't feel cheated out of a summer.

We're now just past the meteorological midpoint of summer, and temperatures will start falling soon enough.  In just five or six months, on some dark and frigid winter day, we will be looking back on this month's high heat and humidity with some real fondness.

Shower Chances, Maybe Strong South, Tropics Turning Active

Hanging baskets looking to the clouds and waiting for rain recently
on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont. Flower and structural
design by my husband, Jeff Modereger

It's still not nearly as wet as I'd like it to be here in Vermont as the trend in below normal rainfall has continued since it at least April.

There are chances for showers and storms off and on through next week.  But I don't see anything major at this point. It also appears  - for now, anyway - that the imaginary anti-rain force in the Champlain Valley is holding strong.

Shower and storm chances look best for the next couple of days outside the Champlain Valley, though we can hold out some hope a stray shower will hit there, too.

There's actually a chance of strong to severe storms today in far southern Vermont and points south of there through southwestern New England down into the Middle Atlantic states.  High winds are the biggest threat in this broad area of severe storm risk, though an isolated, brief tornado can't be ruled out.

Further north, there might be a rumble or two of thunder, but nothing huge. Already this morning, a narrow band of showers has dampened a good chunk of southern Vermont, but that was moving out.

By later today and this evening, there will be a good shot at some showers outside the Champlain Valley.  In the valley, there will probably be some patches of rain, but the chances are there are a little less than elsewhere in the state, at least in my opinion.

It looks like more showers and storms will form tomorrow, but again, the best coverage seems like it could be outside the Champlain Valley.  It's not that northwestern Vermont will miss out on the rain. That area will almost certainly get some.  Just not as much as points south and east.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont of most of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Thursday. That means there might be isolated incidents of strong, damagiing wind gusts, but nothing widespread.

The next real chance of rain in Vermont after tomorrow will come along on Sunday.  No guarantees on how much that will amount to, but all the meteorologists will surely keep an eye on that.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Hurricane experts have ramped up the alarm bells about this year's hurricane season potential, given the unusually warm waters in much of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form. Other atmospheric factors still favor a lot of storms. Even worse, the current weather pattern, it it holds, would tend to steer storms toward the United States.

Summertime clouds not quite getting their act together enough
to produce showers this past Monday over St. Albans, Vermont.

We've already had hints of a troublesome year, since we're way ahead of normal in terms of how many tropical storms have already formed. There's already been six, but thankfully, they've all tended to be pretty weak.

Stronger hurricanes tend to get going in August and September, and you should expect the tropics to start becoming more active right about now.

The tropics certainly got that memo. Probably by the time you read this, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will have formed way out in the central Atlantic.  From there it will move west toward the Caribbean Sea, but exactly where and at what strength is anybody's guess

Wannabe Gonzalo is a tiny, cute little thing spinning out there.  Tropical systems that are small in size are notoriously hard to forecast, both in terms of strength and direction.  When such a storm is tiny, just a little bit of dry air intruding or a few gusts of strong upper level winds can tear it apart and kill it.

On the other hand, a tiny storm can defy predictions and cloak itself in its own protective shield of moisture, and strengthen quickly.   Right now the National Hurricane Center is taking, in my opinion, a correct conservative approach and just maintaining Wannabe Gonzalo as a tropical storm right through the weekend.  They'll surely change and update this forecast in the coming days.

It's possible Wannabe Gonzalo could pose a United States threat next week, but that is a big question mark right now.

Another weaker tropical type system is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's unlikely to become a tropical storm, though some computer models think it will strengthen to that level.  It's headed toward Texas, and will give parts of that state a deep soaking this coming weekend.

Another batch of storms that will move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days will also have to be watched in case it turns into an eventual threat.

The Stresses Of A Hot, Humid, And Very Iffy Summer Roll On

Part of my St. Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. At the time
they were getting a brief drink of water from a passing
shower, which pleased both me and the flowers. 

Yesterday and today are continuing the humid cat and mouse game with storms drenching just a few people with needed rain while others miss out.

I've been saying the same all summer, I do realize. Call it Rinse (Not) and Repeat.

I managed to collect just over a third of an inch of rain at my St. Albans, Vermont hacienda Saturday, mostly from one rain band associated with former Tropical Storm Fay, plus one brief relatively heavy shower that happened to luckily bullseye my place early Saturday afternoon.

So it helped, but I wanted more. As I write this Sunday morning, I am getting a brief moderate additional rain shower, so that brightens my mood a bit.

Even so, Saturday evening, I watched longingly as a parade of thunderstorms moved northward through the eastern Adirondacks.  The clouds looked thick and rich with rain, rumbles of thunder grumbled in the distance.  But no more rain for me, despite the air you can wear feel from the humidity.

At least I was out enjoying my gardens, right?

It was like this through much of New England and northern New York.  Some pockets got really nailed.

Flash flood warnings were up early today in parts of the central Adirondacks due to a small zone of heavy overnight rain there.  A tornado touched down Saturday afternoon in western Maine, near Sebago Lake. Flood advisories were up for a time near Saratoga, New York Saturday.

Today, the humidity rolls on. The risk of showers, though, is diminishing for the rest of today, but some will still roam around, given the humidity.

More hit and miss kind of stuff will be around on Monday, too.

There is the prospect of a brief break in the humidity later Monday into Wednesday before it gets sticky again.  Tuesday night, Burlington's temperature might actually drop below 60 degrees for the first time since June 25.

I don't know what the record is for the longest stretch we've stayed above 60, but we're already at 16 consecutive days through Saturday. That's an unusually lengthy stretch for such warm nights.

Signs point to a return to sticky warm to hot weather by the end of the week. It's unclear if it's just going to be muggy and warm (highs in the 80s) or downright hot (90s) by next weekend. We'll just have to wait and see.

Most of the nation except for the Pacific Northwest is very hot and in most cases humid,. It's been like that for weeks, and this state of affairs looks like it will continue most of the rest of the month.

As we all know, it's an incredibly stressful summer for most of us, given the unrelenting coronavirus pandemic, economic crisis, racial tensions and failures of leadership.

Hot, humid weather tends to make people more stressed, anxous and angry, so this isn't helping.  The nationwide heat wave is causing droughts to worsen worringly  in some parts of the South and Southwest.

In other parts of the country, the heat and humidity is the spark for destructive storms, bringing pockets of flash flooding, hail, a few tornadoes and the constant drumbeat of storm watches, warnings and advisories. Which doesn't help the moods of most people.

Last evening, after a day at work, I was tense, hot, frustrated and angry, even though I should consider myself lucky I have a job.   My gardens did cool off my temper, if not my body, even as I longed for the rain and thunder I was seeing across Lake Champlain from my house.

The gardens do help, and I'm thankful I have them.

I hope you all have a refuge like I do.  Or are able to create one.  It doesn't have to be a garden, just someplace where you can find peace and forget about everything.

Please find your own refuge from the heat, the storms, and the stress 2020 will forever be known for. You deserve it.

Rain Winners And Losers Continue In New England

A nice thunderstorm Sunday in the Adirondacks looms over homes in
Burlington, Vermont's Old North End, promising rain in parched
backyard gardens there. Alas the storm dissipated on approach
to Burlington, so only sprinkles hit those gardens 

The dry weather continues in New England, despite some local downpours that went way over the top in a few places on Sunday.

Thunderstorms and downpours sprouted all over the place, as expected, on Sunday.  While some towns got oodles of needed rain, other places went dry. Or only got a sprinkle.

A nice looking thunderstorm with heavy rain approached dusty Burlington, Vermont Sunday afternoon, but of course it dissipated on its way to town.

Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there Sunday. So far in June, Burlington is one of the really dry places with only 0.74 inches in June through yesterday. There should have been 3.44 inches by now.

Unless some great rains fall today and/or tomorrow, this will be one of Burlington's driest Junes on record.

Here in St. Albans, Vermont, I got about a quarter inch of rain overnight Saturday night, but just sprinkles during the day.

Elsewhere, a handful of places got bullseyed. More than an inch of rain fell around Stowe, and good chunks of Rutland and Windsor counties had nearly an inch of rainfall.

In Southern New England, a few places got too much of a good thing.  Flash flooding after five inches of rain in a couple of hours forced evacuations at a Norwood, Massachusetts hospital.

Today, tomorrow and to an extent Wednesday will be rinse (for some) and repeat (for all) as that upper level low parks itself near us.

In much of Vermont, including here in St. Albans, it was awfully murky this morning with lots of fog and a little drizzle.  Some of that will lift today but it will remain cloudy. Enough sunlight and warmth will get through the clouds to trigger more showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, especially this afternoon.

The weird part of today's showers and storms is that here in Vermont, they will move slowly from east to west, opposite the usual direction summer showers and storms move.

This is because the upper level low is a bit to our south.  Wind around any storm in the northern hemisphere goes counterclockwise. Since we're north of the storm, winds are generally from the east, so that's the way the showers get pushed.

As noted, the rain today will be hit and miss, but the best chances for good downpours are in the Northeast Kingdom, with progressively lighter amounts, at least in most places, as you head west and south.

Overall, though, it will be kind of an unpleasant day for summer. Which is OK, we could use any rain we can get. Temperatures will stay on the cool side (upper 60s and low 70s for most of us), there will be some occasionally stiff north breezes, and don't count on much sun.

Again, I'm fine with that, as long as it really rains. And the cool breezes are a big improvement over the oppressive heat last week.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will bring more of the same, with perhaps a few more breaks of sun, and temperatures slightly warmer than today.

A Little Rain Came Today, Still Could Use A Soaker

Before this morning's rain, we had a breezy, summery evening
Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont.

It was nice to wake up in St. Albans, Vermont today to the sound of some morning showers moving through. It wasn't anything too heavy, but enough that for once I probably don't have to irrigate the gardens today.

There is a shot at a little more rain as a cold front comes through around early to mid afternoon, but it will probably be hit and miss.

It continues to be drier than it should be for June.  As of midnight, Burlington has had only a quarter inch of rain so far this month, which is an inch below normal.

It hadn't really rained in Burlington yet  today as of 7 a.m., but some showers looked like they would go through that neck of the woods.

I mentioned a threat of severe thunderstorms today in Vermont, and I suppose that might happen here and there, but there won't be anything widespread.  Depending upon how much sun breaks out after the early showers, there might be enough instability to trigger some pretty good, but spotty storms.

This morning's showers might have stabilized the air a bit, which would - maybe - lower the already relatively low chance of severe storms.

If the rambunctious storms do develop, it would come mostly between noon and 5 p.m, earliest in New York and the Champlain Valley.  The best chance of severe storms would probably be in eastern Vermont during the mid to perhaps late afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this morning had all of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That's the lowest of five alert levels. It means there's a possibility of isolated severe storms, but they'd be limited in duration and coverage.

After today, there doesn't appear to be much chance of more rain for several days.  Another cold front Friday afternoon will probably set off a smattering of showers, but don't look for anything major.

A storm in the upper atmosphere is likely to set up somewhere in the eastern United States over the weekend. At this point,  it looks like it will be too far south to give Vermont much precipitation.  There's always the chance it could pull a surprise and set up further north, but for now, the heavy rain associated with that system looks like it will hit places like Virginia and North Carolina.

So drink up today's water from the sky, dear garden plants.  Looks like I'll be attacking you with the hose in the coming days.

Next Few Days Are Perfect If You Like Showers And Thunder

A thunderstorm over Lake Champlain on August 6. More showers and
storms are likely today, and they will be scattered around most days
between now and Thursday in Vermont and surrounding areas.

UPDATE 2:30 PM SATURDAY

Thunderstorms were firing up around the Northeast and some of them are proving to be nasty.

As of 2:30 p.m., nothing major had hit Vermont yet, but I'm still pretty confident there will be a few scattered severe storms.

Some areas outside of Vermont are getting nailed. There was a tornado warning east of Syracuse, NY as of 2:30 p.m.

Flash flood warnings popped up northeast of Albany, New York and in southeastern Connecticut due to torrential rains.

Most of northwestern New Hampshire is under a flash flood watch due to expected heavy rains this evening.

So yeah, most of us in Vermont won't have it too bad, but a few of us will likely get some damaging winds, dangerous lightning and perhaps a local flash flood. Heed warnings and keep an eye to the skies!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Since late Thursday night, occasional rounds of hit and miss thunderstorms have been roaming through Vermont and northern New York.

If you like this type of thing, you're in luck. This state of affairs looks to continue at least into Wednesday. 

There might be times during this period where some afternoon and evening storms in Vermont and the rest of the North Country could become strong to severe, but it's hard to pinpoint if or exactly when and where that would happen much in advance.

The closer you are to the event, the better handle you have on things. So the forecast for today can be spelled out pretty well. We have to hope that everybody gets some good rains eventually out of this. Some parts of Vermont are wet enough, but others could stand some decent downpours.

The showers and storms have been caused by a series of disturbances zipping along in a general west to east flow over us. The last disturbance was heading out of eastern Vermont early this morning after scattering a few showers and storms here and there overnight

The next disturbance, riding hard on the heels of the first one, should get here this afternoon and evening. The area of rain and showers with this disturbance was getting into western New York as of 9 a.m. and heading steadily east. It looks as if the showers and storms will be pretty numerous between, say 1 and 8 p.m., but as always in this type of situation, not everybody is going to get it.

There's a lot of clouds left over this morning from last night's activity. If the skies clear decently, that will help the sun heat things up and increase the instability. This, in turn could lead to some storms turning strong, even maybe severe in one or two spots.

Most of us won't get a severe storm, but a couple towns might. So you'll want to be in a spot today where you can quickly get to a good shelter if you see a storm coming, or hear a severe thunderstorm warning or special weather statement.

If we get very little sun, there will be a lesser chance of strong storms but still a risk of heavy downpours, lightning, that sort of thing.

As an aside, my friends and relatives over in South Dakota really ought to watch the skies today and tonight. Out there, a greater chance of big time Plains storms exists. The biggest threats out there are very damaging winds and huge hailstones. A couple tornadoes will probably also touch down.

Back here in Vermont, Sunday, at least the way it looks now, is shaping up to be the better of the two weekend days. We'll be between weather disturbances, so there won't be much of a trigger for any additional rounds of showers and storms.

However, I'm sure by now you've noticed the humidity creeping up. That trend will continue through tomorrow and on into the beginning of the work week. With the humidity around along with subtle ripples in the atmosphere and updrafts near mountains, there will probably be a few widely scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but most of us won't get anything.

It'll stay generally very warm and humid until at least Wednesday, with daily chances of more storms. As I said before, it's too soon to say whether any of them will be strong or severe. There's hope that a cold front will come through later Wednesday or Thursday to drop both the temperature and the humidity.

It's getting toward the end of summer, so we will only have a few more of these humid spells before autumn arrives.

Vermont Rain Outlook: More Hits And Misses

Storm clouds loom over a Georgia, Vermont hay field last Wednesday.
More showers and storms are on the way, especially tomorrow
and the day after.

After a couple days of sunny, dry weather and absolutely no rain, chances of precipitation are beginning to ramp up as humidity briefly makes a comeback.

Where the rain falls and where it doesn't is completely unknown.  As always in the summer, the showers and storms over the next few days will be hit and miss. Then we get back into cooler, mostly drier air over the weekend. 

Yesterday morning represented our first taste of autumn in the North Country - it's coming!  A few readings under 40 degrees even popped up.

It was 36 in Saranac Lake, New York, 38 in Averill, Vermont and 39 in South Lincoln, Vermont. Burlington's 52 degrees was the chilliest reading since June 17.

None of this was setting records, but it was a reminder. It's coming....

Today, it'll be warm and getting more humid. There might be a scattered shower or storm around, but most places will stay dry.

Tomorrow, we all have a very good chance, but not a guarantee of some much needed rainfall in the Green Mountain State. It will have gotten rather humid by tomorrow, and a disturbance coming through will be more than enough to set off showers and thunderstorms.

Although it's possible there might be an isolated strong to severe storm, most of the weather won't be that rough. Some storms might have heavy downpours. Which means Wednesday will bring additional winners and losers. Some towns will get a nice drenching, others will get just an insignificant bit. It's all the luck of the draw.

Showers will keep roaming around Wednesday night, which means some places might get more rain. Then on Thursday, a strong cold front for this time of year will zip on through. That'll set off more showers and storms.

We'll have to watch this to see if any of the storms can turn strong or severe. It'll depend on the timing of the front, whether upper level support lines up, and whether the air can get pretty unstable. But at least there's a good chance of more rain.

Then we're in for the first extended spell of coolish weather starting Friday and lasting through early next week. Again, we're on the back side of summer, so we'll start to see this.  But there's still a good chance of hot spells into September.

Even so, it looks like Burlington, Vermont, one of the warmer spots in Vermont, will get at least two or three consecutive days with temperatures staying under 80 degrees. That happens a lot in most summers, but hasn't happened this summer since June 20-22.

Every day Friday into Monday poses a risk of a scattered afternoon shower, but these won't last long in any one spot and many places won't get any rain at all. Humidity will be low, too, so this will actually be a nice break from an oppressive summer.

Hit And Miss Showers Missing Some Parts Of Vermont Too Often

Parts of my gardens in St. Albans, Vermont.  The flowers are blooming
only because I've had to water frequently. And, unlike last year, I've
gotten lucky: A couple rounds of hit and mostly miss showers
and storms hit me in the past week or so. 

As darkness fell last evening around my place in St. Albans, Vermont, I was still out there tending my gardens, when...splish, splash. It suddenly began to rain. At a fairly good clip.

What a pleasant surprise! I knew there was a chance of a few scattered showers, but I figured there would be more misses than hits. It turns out there were more misses than hits, but I got lucky.

 It was only about a quarter inch of rain, but I'll take it. Most places in Vermont got nothing, or next to nothing.  

We've had a lot of warmer than normal weather since late June at least, and that tends to make things dry out faster. In the summer, there's rarely a nice general soaking rain. It's always a bunch of showers and thunderstorms, with winners getting a nice soaking and the losers, well, losing out.

The rain has been generally more scattered and sporadic this summer than usual. Between the heat and the lack of storms, it's getting dry. Not nearly as bad as last year, when much of Vermont was in a drought, but still dry.

I have a feeling that the next U.S. Drought Monitor, which comes out weekly on Thursdays, might start popping up an "abnormally dry" status in parts of Vermont, which is their lowest status in a five-tier ranking of how dry it is. Currently the U.S. Drought Monitor doesn't have any part of the Green Mountain State listed as dry.

Since July 14, Burlington, Vermont has only had 0.8 inches of rain. The rough rule of thumb is you should get about an inch of rain per week to keep things nice and wet and lush in the summer. Certain areas of the Burlington area have gotten less than that. I was working in a client's garden on the Burlington/South Burlington border yesterday and it was basically a dust bowl.

I had trouble with another South Burlington client in June, as parts of their property were a swamp and inaccessible from all the rain. Now their lawn is brown and dry.

Here in St. Albans, I'll be back to watering my gardens as soon as tonight, even with last night's rain. A torrential downpour this past Wednesday dried up quickly, and my garden plots were dusty by Friday afternoon.

We're not expecting much in way of rain anytime soon. Although there are daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through at least Friday as a series of seasonably weak weather systems pass through.

It'll be hit or miss with these, too.  Once we get toward into the autumn, storm systems will generally transition into ones that bring more widespread, steady rains, so we have that to look forward to. Or, the remains of some tropical systems can start giving us better rains in the late summer or autumn, but that's very iffy.

The sunny weather of late has certainly been fantastic to enjoy the outdoors, so we have that to be thankful for.  I might be complaining about a relative lack of rain, but it has been a gorgeous, if at times toasty summer so far.

More Vermont Storms In The Offing, And Some Of Us Got Woken Up Last Night

Thunderstorm clouds in South Burlington Wednesday. Will we
see additional photogenic skies this weekend? It all depends. 

We managed to get through Thursday without any storms, but that little weather front from Quebec and Ontario that wasn't supposed to amount to all that much packed a punch.

I'm sure many people got woken up by the storms that rolled through around or just after midnight last night. I certainly did. Besides the lightning and thunder, the storms produced heavy downpours and even some pockets of damage.

Trees blew down in Champlain, New York. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont received pea-sized hailstones.  We were under a severe thunderstorm warning here in St. Albans, Vermont, where I am. No damage on my property, though.

Skies have basically cleared and we'll probably get through today without a storm.  In the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys, we have a shot of seeing our first 90 degree day of the summer. Iffy, but could happen.

Still, those potentially picturesque and noisy storms I've been talking about seem destined to make a return. As always, they'll be hit and miss, with some people getting a good storm over the next couple of days and other people getting next to nothing.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms from the upper Midwest will approach us tonight and go through after midnight and into Saturday morning. But this area of disturbed weather will be weakening as it comes through. We'll get some showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder out of it. It won't be as dramatic as last night.

What that disturbance does and how quickly it gets out of our hair Saturday morning will determine if we get a lot of new fun thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. A cold front will be coming through in the afternoon. If we get a decent amount of sun before it arrives, some nice thunderstorms could blossom.

If it stays cloudier, the chances of stronger storms will go down.

Further south, there's a decent chance of at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the southern half of New England.  Southern Vermont could get on that action, too, so we'll need to keep an eye on that.  More details should be available Saturday morning on where the best chances of rough weather might be.

Sunday could be interesting, too, and possibly picturesque again.  A pocket of very cold air aloft will move overhead on Sunday.  Meanwhile, this time of year the sun is as strong as it can get.

The contrast between the sun's warmth and the cold air above us will form billowing clouds and create lots of showers.  It remains to be seen whether this will manifiest itself in the form of pretty, tall clouds that create showers and thunderstorms, with sun and shadows creating a striking sky. Or  will it just give us a dull, cloudy day?

Will Sunday be a sky watching and photo day, or a quiet day to get work done indoors? It remains to be seen. In any event, there will be showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms around. Since the freezing level in the atmosphere is so low, there might be some small hail with a few storms. And it will be chilly on Sunday for this time of year.

Never fear, though. That's just a brief interruption to summer weather. It will turn warm again Monday as the cold pocket departs, and we'll have relatively toasty weather all of next week. And, depending on the timing of minor disturbances passing by, we might get a few more thunderstormson some days next week

for this time of year will move over

Spring Brings, Odd Snows, Fire Risks, Possibly Thunderstorms, Wind, You Name It

Springtime snow in North Carolina Tuesday.

It's spring, so here in Vermont and in much of the rest of the nation, it's the season to expect the unexpected more so than any time of year. I think we're now in the peak "anything goes" weather time of year, so there's all kinds of relatively odd things going on.  

For the most part, there's no super extreme weather to talk about for the next couple of days here or anywhere else in the East, but it sure is interesting for a weather geek like me.

There has been, or very soon will be, snow in unusual places for this time of year, a beautiful nor'easter, fire weather risks, some possible thunder, and some throwbacks to winter.

Many but not all of these are affecting us here in Vermont.

A NEAR-MISS NOR'EASTER

Yesterday, as an impressive nor'easter got going off the coast of North Carolina, the storm manufactured its own cold air pocket, which allowed rain to change to snow in many parts of North Carolina. Charlotte, North Carolina picked up 0.1 inches of snow, only the second time in the past 100 years they had measureable snow in April.

Some areas of the state picked up more than an inch and a half of snow. This is an area where trees are already leafing out, so it is unusual.

The nor'easter was beautiful, at least to us weather geeks. It did manage to stay offshore enough to minimize its impacts. That's a good thing because this was a strong one. Hurricane force winds were reported offshore. There were probably some intense waterspouts out there over the open ocean, and on satellite photos, the nor'easter developed a feature that looked like the eye of a hurricane.

Impressive nor'easter off the North Carolina coast yesterday.

Had this storm hugged the coast, there would have been a terrible snowstorm all the way up the East Coast into our neck of the woods, with flooding rains, and battering wind and storm surges in along the Northeast coast.

The nor'easter did produce gusty rains in eastern New England overnight and was dumping some snow in eastern Maine.

WIND AND FIRE

Behind this storm and ahead of a cold front coming in from the northwest, it's windy in the Northeast, or at least becoming so. The air is quite dry in much of the Mid-Atlantic states and in the southwestern half of New England.

This is the time of year when vegetation from last year is drying out and new green stuff hasn't really gotten going yet. The dry air and wind and the dead weeds and brush can easily go up in flames in this weather.

There's a big area including all of New Jersey, most of Pennsylvania, most of Maryland, parts of southwestern New York and other places that are under a Red Flag Warning today.

A Red Flag Warning means there's a big risk of fast moving, dangerous grass, brush or forest fires. It's kind of unusual to have this kind of a warning in this area, especially one that covers such a big area. But you do get these alerts in the Northeast from time to time around now. Red Flag Warnings are much more common in the West.

There have already been a lot of brush and forest fires in the area covered by the Red Flag Warning in recent days, so more are likely.

In parts of Vermont, particularly the Champlain Valley roughly south of Burlington and the Connecticut Valley floor south of White River Junction, the snow has melted. There is a risk of brush fires in these areas of the Green Mountain State, too, due to winds and dry air today.

THUNDERSTORMS? THEN WINTER AGAIN

A sign of spring is coming from the north today. But it being spring, so there's some wintry aspects of this, too.

That cold front coming in from the northwest is pretty starved for moisture, but does have a lot of energy with it. This looks like it will produce the first band of convective showers and possible thunderstorms of the warmer season in northern Vermont later today.

Convection is basically those towering clouds you see mostly in the summer that produce showers and thunderstorms.  They're mostly a creature of the warm season.

So, it's a sign of spring I suppose that we might get some convection today, especially near the border with Canada. There won't be anything severe, but there might be some rumbles of thunder, some gusty winds, maybe even a tiny hailstone or two in the stronger ones.

It will be windy anyway this afternoon, with gusts over 45 mph, but the stronger storms racing across northern New York and Vermont could produce gusts stronger than that.

As the cold front goes through, it will produce a few more scattered showers, and those will turn to snow in the mountains as it gets colder. Winter will kind of come back. Tomorrow will be windy and cold, with highs in many areas not getting out of the 30s. The coldest valleys of the Northeast Kingdom could reach the single digits above zero again tomorrow night.

A weather system coming through Friday and Friday night could put down a slushy light accumulation of snow in the mid and high elevations, though it will probably be cold, light rain in the valleys.

EARLY SPRING CANCELED

It also is beginning to appear that long range forecasts suggesting that spring would really blossom in our neck of the woods in April were wrong.  Many extended forecasts issued in late March indicated April would mostly be on the warmer than average side here and in much of the rest of the nation.

Although there will probably be some relatively pleasant days here and there, the trend will be unsettled and on the chilly side most days going forward through most of the month here in Vermont.

Blame, in part, this ridiculously resilient ridge in Alaska that has kept that state unusually warm for months. For some reason, these northward and incredibly persistent bulges in the jet stream have been forming repeatedly over the past decade in the eastern Pacific or in western North America for the past decades.

I know climate scientists are looking into this. Are these "ridiculously resilient ridges" at least partly a product of climate change or just chance? Some preliminary science suggests that climate change can create "stuck" weather patterns, so we shall see.

You'd Think It Would Finally Rain In Vermont With This Humidity, But Everyone Else Getting It Instead

Showers are few and far between today in Vermont, but the showers
that do form are giving the sky the appearance of something you'd see
over a Caribbean island. Which isn't surprising, since this really
is pure tropical air. 

It's another oppressively warm, incredibly humid day here in Vermont.

Once again, I cut short outdoor work because the sun, combined with the humidity was too much for me.

I originally thought - as did many forecasters - that today would be a cloudier, more showery day than recent ones.

Especially in northern Vermont, where we still really need the rain. And I would have been willing to work outside under clouds with this humidity, without the glaring heat of the sun.

And I would have been willing to work outside in these temperatures and the sun, if the humidity were lower. Rain showers would have further cooled me off out there.

It was not to be. It seems every time northern Vermont seems finally ready to get some decent rains, something interferes.

This time, it's an upper level low stuck to our southwest. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, drier air wrapped around this low, and went south to north in a corridor that took it right across Vermont.

Sure, with this awful humidity near the surface, there's bound to be some local showers and storms. One tiny cell formed in Milton early this afternoon and traveled north right along Interstate 89 all the way to Highgate.

Meanwhile, flash flooding is so bad in Pennsylvania today that a
building housing the New Albany library sadly washed away.
Thankfully, two people in an apartment on the second floor
of the building were rescued before the structure
entirely broke apart. 

When I got home to St. Albans, Vermont early this afternoon,  things outside were wet, so at least I got a little needed rain out of the deal, while lots of other people didn't.

Most showers and storms that form the rest of this afternoon over and near Vermont will get going over the mountains and pretty much stay there. We lack any real wind in the atmosphere, so there's nothing to push them along.

Because showers and storms will be such slow movers, isolated spots in the state could get torrential downpours and gullywashers.

If any particular storm gets especially tall, there's barely enough wind in the upper atmosphere to push them into valleys. Most valley locations won't get rain the rest of the this afternoon and evening, but there's hope a few will.

The tropical air looks really, well, tropical. I swear the sky over the Green Mountain State today looks more like we're on a Caribbean island and not in northern New England.

The next chance of widespread, meaningful rain in northern Vermont will come along Friday and Saturday, but I'm guessing, just as we repeatedly experienced all summer, some complication will come along to prevent that anticipated precipitation.

Meanwhile, so many people under and close to that upper low I talked about are getting, way, way too much rain. Flash flooding has been an enormous problem since Saturday in these areas, especially in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and that state of affairs continues this afternoon.

The flash flooding continues today, especially along the Pennsylvania/New York border near Elmira and Binghamton. It's gotten so bad a building housing a library in New Albany, Pennsylvania literally washed away in the flood.

It continues: Some people are getting way too much rain, and not that far way, other people are not getting enough. Too bad we don't have the power to redistribute it.

No Strong Vermont Storms Yesterday, But Today Could Bring 'Em

There's a slight chance of severe storms in areas shaded in
yellow today; Dark green has a marginal risk of severe storms

It turns out no strong to severe thunderstorms hit our fair state of Vermont yesterday.

Those storms stayed in New York and especially Pennsylvania, where there were quite a few reports of sizable hail and wind damage.

Here in Vermont, cloud largely hung in, suppressing storms. Also, some stable, cool air from the North Atlantic was brought in by strong southeast winds and made it all the way through Vermont into far eastern New York.

That marine air also did a lot to suppress storms Tuesday.

Today, we're in a similar weather pattern as yesterday with two differences. There will probably be more sun this morning than yesterday. Plus the wind has more of a south to southwesterly component, which means less stable, damp air from the Atlantic.

Yet another disturbance is coming in fron the west, so we stand a better chance of thunderstorms than yesterday. At the very least, there will be quite a few showers around this afternoon.

It's also slightly more likely that a few storms today will get strong to marginally severe. That means a few locally damaging wind gusts and a few towns will get some garden-punishming hail. These strong storms could happen anywhere in Vermont, but as of early this morning, southern Vermont looks like the most likely target.

Even there, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a slight chance of severe weather.

As is always the case, most of us won't get strong to severe storms. If they occur, they'll be widely scattered, with maybe a couple of reports of wind and damage here and there across Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast.

The usual safety precaution applies. If you hear thunder or see dark clouds gathering to the west, time to head indoors and wait it out. And postpone that hiking or boating trip until a nicer day. Tomorrow might even work.

If you're sick of rain and cool weather and clouds, I can't help you much. After a break Thursday when most of us won't get rain, showers are a good bet Friday, and then Sunday through Tuesday.

Oh, well.

Hey Fellow Vermonters, "Omega Block" Welcomes Us To East Seattle!

The Weather Channel supplied us with this schematic
of an "Omega block" weather pattern, in which cool,
showery weather remains stuck over us for at least two weeks.

It's raining again this morning and we hope you like showery weather, as it's going to hang in there for awhile.

In the spring, the normal general west to east motion of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere gets blocked up, and things stall out.

Oh, joy! This time a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere is probably going to hang around here for days and days.

Which means days and days of on and off showers.

This weather pattern is called an Omega block, because the jet stream pattern resembles the Greek letter Omega. It's a zigzag sort of thing that doesn't break down easily at all once it sets up.

It features a big dip in the jet stream over the western part of the country, a big jog in the jet stream in the middle of North America, and another big southward dip over us.

What it means for us is a long, long spell of cool, showery weather.

Today will be the wettest day of the whole bunch, as the main low pressure system moves in Nothing super heavy, but today will be a total washout.

By the way, unlike huge swaths of the middle of the country, the rain we get here won't cause any flooding. River levels might come up some, but it won't be scary.

The good news is despite the Seattle-like showery regime coming up over the next week, it won't constantly rain. There will always be a threat of showers through Thursday, but it won't rain all the time. And you might get a few peaks of sun here and there.

Except for Saturday, it's going to be chilly during this whole thing, too. It'll barely be around 50 today.

As the surface low pressure system trudges by to the west Saturday, we'll get a brief blurt of warm-ish air. Which means it'll get into the 60s to near 70.

As the storm stalls over southeastern Canada and the Northeast United States, chilly air will come back in. That's especially true Sunday and and Monday, when some of the showers could well turn to snow over the peaks of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.

It'll sort of warm up a little later in the week and the showers will probably generally become less numerous, but will still be present.

More bad news: The Omega block will live on after next week.

As the stalled upper level low finally, slowly inches away out into the Atlantic Ocean toward next weekend, another one looks like it will come in, and take its place by stalling over us for several days.

Which means another extended period of showers next weekend and the following week.

That's why I'm saying we're suddenly in what I call Seattle On Champlain.

Typical Spring Up Here In Vermont, Temperatures Bounce, Showers Come And Go

More daffodils: This is coming very soon, trust me! 

We've entered a weather pattern that features pretty typical conditions for a New England April. The temperature is yo-yo-in from warm to cool and back again. Showers come, showers go.

All getting us ready for the big greenup coming in the next few weeks.

The wild temperature gyrations of the past couple of days will moderate a bit, but we are still in for an up and down ride.

We managed to squeak out a couple of record highs Monday, like in Montpelier. Burlington  had its first summerlike 80 degree reading of the year Monday, so the forces of spring have finally gotten a good start.

Tuesday was fascinating, with a sharp temperature gradient across the area. At one point Tuesday afternoon, it was 43 degrees in Montreal and 83 in Bennington, Vermont. Quite a contrast!

It won't be that ridiculous for the next few days. It'll be cool-ish today with highs in the upper 40s and 50s - which is right around normal for this time of year.  It'll keep gradually getting sunnier and sunnier as we go through the day.

Friday looks to be a beauty, with sunshine and temperatures well into the 50s, maybe flirting with 60.

But we always need those April showers and the weather gods will deliver. A warm front will make a run at New England Saturday, with a nice package of gusty showers.

We'll get a brief warm blurt on Easter Sunday between the showers as temperatures heat up into the 70s. Might be a spot 80 degree or two that day if enough sun comes out. It all depends upon the time timing of more showers as the warm front departs Sunday morning and a cold front approaches later Sunday.

Then it's back to chilly weather early next week, with high temperatures in the 40s to around 50. That''s a little cool for this time of year but it's nothing out of the ordinary.

We really are getting a break from wht has been an active weather year so far here in Vermont.

Kinda Close To Average In Vermont, For A Change

Enough snow has melted in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
so I can sort of see my raised beds again. But there's
still plenty more snow to melt. 

The snow in northern Vermont - at least in the valleys - is finally showing signs of melting away.

There's still plenty left, to be sure, but it's declining.

For once, with weather not too far from average for this time of year, the melt will continue.

Unless we get a nasty surprise Friday night. More on that in a moment.

A cold front will arrive today, accompanied by more showers. Nothing terribly heavy.

Tonight, colder air filters in, with yes, more snow. Most places won't get much of anything tonight and tomorrow morning, but the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the northern Champlain Valley could pick up one to three inches of wet snow. There might be even a little more than that way up in the mountains.

Any new snow in the valleys will begin to melt in the afternoon Wednesday as temperatures get to near 40. That's a bit chilly for this time of year, but not terrible.

Sugarers, look out for a great run on Thursday. The day will start cold, but sunshine will boost temperatures well up into the 40s by afternoon.

Then.....Friday. There's some sort of storm coming, but details are sketchy on how heavy the precipitation will be and in what form.

At this point the best chances of several inches of snow are, of course, up in the mountains. However, the temperature is looking marginal Friday night for rain or snow in the valleys.

There's a good bet there will be some snow in the valleys Friday night, but will it be just a few wet snowflakes mixed with the rain, or many inches of heavy wet snow, or something in between?

I have no idea. Neither does anybody else. Stay tuned on that one

A Brief Return To Winter Coming To Vermont, New England Soon

Quite foggy during the morning commute in St. Albans,
Vermont this morning, but it cleared up later.  

It was damp and mild this morning across Vermont and much of the rest of New England this morning.

The fog slowly cleared up as the morning progressed and we will get some breaks of nice sunshine for the rest of the day, along with occasional clouds.

Springlike weather will continue for a another day or two, but big changes are coming that will plunge us back into winter for a few days.

The storm that brought tornadoes to Illinois and a winter storm to northern Minnesota will swing its weather fronts toward New England Thursday.

After a mostly dry, mild day today, rain will blow in tonight. Nothing heavy, but it will be a wet and mild Wednesday night.

Thursday, the part of that storm in the Great Lakes that's in the upper levels of the atmosphere will approach us, leading to a rather interesting day Thursday.

It'll still be mild down where we live, but several thousand to a 10,000 and more feet overhead, it will turn very cold. The contrast will create billowing tall clouds, which will produce quite a few showers, with a few thunderstorms thrown in here and there.

There might even be some small hail and gusty winds with a few of these showers and thunderstorms in Vermont and the rest of New England and northern New York.

Then winter comes back. A cold front will drop through New England Thursday night, changing rain showers to snow showers.

A dusting to a couple inches will pile up in the northern New England valleys Thursday night and Friday, with a few inches in the mountains. That'll fall way too short and way to late to save the ski season, but winter fans will at least get a taste

Temperatures in much of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will struggle to get above freezing Friday and Saturday and overnight lows will be in the upper single numbers and teens.

That's not unusual at all for mid-March, but it will still feel stunning after such a long bout of mild weather.

You've probably heard about the possibility of a nor'easter Sunday night and Monday. Well, that's iffy.

Current forecasting models take the storm too far to the east to seriously affect New England. HOWEVER: The storm is several days away, and sometimes, as new data comes in, we find out the storm will come a lot closer than we originally thought.

So it's still possible parts of New England could get a nasty snow and or rain storm. It's just too soon to tell. Chances are higher that it won't happen, especially the more west and north you go, but it's still something to keep an eye on.

Beyond that, the weather pattern looks active. That's all I can tell you. As is typical in the early spring, when the seasons are in transition, forecasting beyond a few days out is very, VERY difficult

Beautiful Sky High View Of Showers, Storms Over Midwest

I flew yesterday from Burlington, Vermont to Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

In the final leg of the flight between Chicago and Sioux Falls, our flight went past clusters of showers and thunderstorms.

These views of the beautiful structures of even routine, garden variety storms might be old hat to seasoned travelers, but I still think the clouds are worth really, really looking at

And photographing. So I took out my iPhone during the flight and snapped away. If other passengers on the flight thought I was weird, too bad.

It's just nice to get a perspective on these complicated cloud systems from the air. It helped that it was evening, so the low sun angle made the clouds appear especially beautiful and dramatic.

So check out the clouds and storms from Saturday, somewhere over, I think Iowa.

As always, click on the photos to make them bigger and easier to see.

If April Showers Bring May Flowers, Then Gardens Will Look GREAT This Year

After a long winter that extended right through March, it's nice to see things starting to green up here in Vermont.

Plants are finally starting to come up in
my perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont
after a long, cold winter. April showers will
encourage these flowers even more.  

Temperatures were near 70 degrees Monday, which was nice. And now we have frequent bouts of showers to contend with.

In fact, here in the North Country, it looks like it could rain every day for the next week except for probably Thursday.

If April showers bring May flowers, this perennial gardens are going to look awesome.

Don't worry, it won't rain all the time, and we won't get drowning downpours. These are April showers, after all, not April monsoons.

Flooding won't be a worry, except along Lake Champlain, which has been above flood stage for a week now.

As of yesterday, the Lake Champlain lake level was at 100.48 feet above sea level, which is about half a foot above flood stage. This is a rather minor flood, not like the disaster of 2011.

The rains over the next week will slow the rate at which the water level in Lake Champlain will fall, but it won't really worsen the flooding.

Elsewhere in the nation, those April showers could become highly unwelcome violent thunderstorms. This year has been blessedly slow in the tornado department in the United States. There has been some, and there have been a lot of hailstorms and severe winds.

But no terrible, destructive, widespread tornado outbreaks. That, unfortunately could change by the end of the week or the weekend, as signs are starting to point toward a lot of tornados in and near Oklahom, Texas, Missouri and Arkansas.

We'll see if that develops.

Back here in Vermont,  temperatures won't be all that warm over the next week, though Saturday could be decently mild. But, with the frequent showers (and maybe a rumble of thunder today) the slow green up of the Vermont landscape will continue.

Yeah, the trees won't be in leaf for a little while yet, but at least their budding. And the grass is turning green. And were those daffodils I saw blooming yesterday

It even smells like spring out there.

I'm SO glad it's here.

Labor Day Rumbles and Grumbles

Jackson the Cocker Spaniel and I heard grumbles and rumbles of thunder early this morning when we went outside after a good night's sleep in St. Albans, Vermont.

A thundestorm over Addison County, Vermont
in July, 2011. Similar scenes are likely across
the Northeast today.  

We ended up getting very little rain out of the band of showers and storms that went through.

Meanwhile, there were flash flood warnings in parts of far southern Vermont and in central New Hampshire.

That state of affairs highlights the hit and miss nature of the weather we've had for the past three days. Some places in New England have been hammered by heavy, and sometimes repeated downpours that have raised some flood fears.

The flash food warning for far southeastern Vermont that was in effect early this morning has expired, and I haven't heard of any major high water there. But the southernmost part of Vermont is still under a flash flood watch, as is much of New Hampshire. More rain could trigger more problems.

Other areas, like where I live in St. Albans,  have had almost no rain for the past week, and we could stand some rain. The garden is a bit dry.

This pattern will continue today, Labor Day, and into tonight. There's a very good chance of showers and storms, some with heavy rain, but not everyone will get nailed.

The early morning bouts of showers and storms that hit northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire are moving away for the most part, and there's a lull in the action for the rest of the morning.

There might be a few pop up showers and storms before lunchtime, but nothing wild.

Forecasters are still expected another bloom of showers and storms this afternoon that will develop in northern and western New York and head east into New England.

I suspect things will be as hit and miss as they have been the past few days. Almost everyone in northern New York and New England will get some rain.

Some spots-- it's hard to say who-- will get nailed with torrential downpours. Other places won't get much at all.   I'm just hoping the places that already got a lot of rain lately miss out this afternoon and places that could use some wetting get a downpour or two.

But you can't order the weather you want the way you can order Chinese takeout, can you?

The rain will diminish late tonight as the cold front comes through and the long awaited return to cooler, drier air will arrive Tuesday.

There's still a threat of a few showers Tuesday and maybe a few Wednesday as a second cold front comes through. Thursday will really be the unofficial first day of fall. By that I mean it will really feel like autumn for the first time this year, with some hill towns not getting out of the 50s during the afternoon and most of us staying in the 60s here in northern New England.

Look for some frost in the colder mountain valleys Thursday night. Yep. it's that time of year, folks.

Vermont Weather Like A Moody Teenager

The weather this weekend in Vermont and surrounding areas is behaving like a bored teenager. The teenager might be listening to One Direction, but is certainly not motivated to move one way or the other.

A towering shower cloud boils
up through the hazy, humid air  Friday
evening northwest of St. Albans, Vermont  

The same with the weather. We're caught in that sticky airmass just sitting here, not being much use at all. (Kind of like our teenager sometimes behavies)

There's subtle wind shifts, boundaries, patches of sun, patches of clouds that could trigger showers or thunderstorms at any time, but nothing striking or definitive to help forecasters tell us what will happen and when.

The result has been a guessing game of when and where any showers or storms will form. And if they do form, how heavy will they get?  Whatever forms isn't moving very fast, so a few spots could get minor flooding.

But where? There's a subtle stationary front over northern Vermont. Will it move a bit north? Or a bit south? Will other dynamics come into play to encourage more showers and storms?

It's anybody's guess, but the consensus is there's a lesser chance of rain Sunday as a patch of somewhat drier air moves in aloft. But not down here. It will still be humid as heck.

It's hard to rely on weather forecasts in this type of weather situation. To be on the safe side between now and say, noon Monday, go ahead with your outdoor plans but be ready to move inside at the drop of a hat because a random downpour, shower or thunder bumper could arrive at any time.

Like most teenagers, the weather will eventualy get motivated and moving again. A cold front is still expected to come in Monday or Monday night with a more definite batch of showers and storms. Then it will turn cooler and more invigorating by the end of the week.

Just like our teenager when she comes out of her funk.