Devastating Michigan Floods. North Carolina Is Next

One of the failed dams causing serious flooding in Michigan
yesterday and today. 

A big flood disaster has been unfolding in Michigan the past couple of days.

Torrential rains have hit the state since Saturday, and as the rains tapered off, the situation actually worsened.

The Associated Press reports that two dams on the Tittabawassee River in Midland County failed, and a flood crest was heading toward the city of Midland, population of about 41,000.

About 10,000 people have been evacuated.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned that downtown Midland could become submerged under nine feet of water. Midland is about 140 miles north of Detroit.

Another concern is that a Dow Chemical plant is in the path of the flood waters. So it's not good. Video is at the bottom of this post.

Some parts of Michigan received up to seven inches of rain over the past few days, causing flooding across much of the state. The heavy rain is also sure to cause some of the Great Lakes to rise further, exacerbating flooding, as the lakes are already at near record high levels.

One of the breached dams in Michigan, the Edenville Dam, was built in 1924. As of 2018, the state of Michign rated it as in unsatisfactory condition, according to clickondetroit.com.

Last November, an Associated Press investigation revealed that at least 1,680 dams in the United States are unstable enough to pose a risk to people downstream.

The actual number of such dams is higher than 1,680 because some states refused to release data to reporters, and a few states don't rate dams at all due to a lack of funding.

Now, as parts of Michigan floods, attention is turning to a huge risk of flooding today in North Carolina.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center put western North Carolina in a relatively rare high risk zone for excessive rainfall today.

Around four inches of rain fell in that region yesterday, and another four inches or so is expected today.

Flooding, landslides and debris flows are all an almost certainty today in the mountainous region in the state.

The Weather Channel reported earlier this year that 41 percent of all U.S. flood deaths covered in one research project were on high risk excessive rain days, which are posted about 15 times per year.

Here's a quick video of Midland, Michigan from early this morning:



The scene around one of the failed dams on Tuesday:

This 'N That: Southeast Tidal Flooding; Late Tropical Storm

A car makes its way through King Tide flooding recently in South Florida.
Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images via Weather Underground.

The southeastern United States has had their hands full for more than a week now with so called "nuisance flooding," in which high tides have caused repeated bouts of minor flooding along the East Coast.

The cause was a combination of astronomically higher tides this time of year, an offshore storm that drove water toward shore, sinking land masses, and climate change.

These are very similar to the factors that caused the severe flooding in Venice, Italy over the past week.  

Some of the East Coast flooding was damaging, especially during the height of the offshore nor'easter a few days ago in North Carolina.

Along the Outer Banks, officials were almost ready to open main roads like North Carolina Route 12, damaged by Hurricane Dorian earlier this year, when the latest storm undid much of that work. They'll have to start over.

Down around Miami, there's not much in the way of destruction, but the tides have run above normal daily for at least a week. The land isn't sinking there, so a lot of this is climate related.

As I've said, higher tides usually come in the autumn around Miami and northeasterly winds have driven added water ashore. But before sea levels began rising decades ago, this minor, daily nuisance flooding wasn't nearly the factor it is now.

That's because these minor "sunny day floods" are just so much more frequent now.  The amount to streets and parking lots having several inches of water on them. But these repeated salt water inundations, though not deep, can eventually cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Remember, salt is corrosive, which is why our cars rust so easily here in Vermont. We're always driving on salted roads in the winter.

As Weather Underground's Category 6 blog notes, citing work by NOAA oceanographer and nuisance flood expert William Sweet:

"Sea level in Miami has risen about six inches in the last 25 years, according to Sweet. That's roughly twice the global average for seal leel rise since 1993 of about 3 inches as calculated by the University of Colorado Boulder - not because of subsidence, but because of shifting ocean and atmosphere patterns that are pushing more water into the coast.

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is coming to a close - the season officially ends November 30, but you can still get an occasional tropical storm or hurricane after that.

There is one last hurrah going on out there. Tropical Storm Sebastien formed the other day in the central Atlantic Ocean.  It's been slowly gaining strength, even though it is rather disorganized.

Forecasters think Sebastien might strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days as it heads northeastward over open water.  The good news is it's very unlikely to affect land.  It's awfully late in the season for a tropical storm to form where it is - far to the northeast of Puerto Rico. But it's not unheard of.

It's good that what will likely be the final sendoff to the 2019 hurricane season will be so harmless.

Flooding From Storm "Melissa" Is Worrying Sign Of Future Trouble

Flooding in Annapolis, Maryland on Saturday due
to offshore Tropical Storm Melissa and sea level
rise. Photo by Elly Tierney via the Baltimore Sun

A storm that turned into Subtropical Storm Melissa and then Tropical Storm Melissa has been spinning off the East Coast of the United States for the past week.

During this time, the strong winds from the storm have been pushing water into the shore, causing some coastal flooding from Maine to Florida.

The flooding wasn't super destructive, as floods go, but it was in the way, and caused damage, and was a general nuisance.

This is another ominous example of the rising number of so-called "nuisance" floods along the coast, brought on in large part by yes, climate change.

One disconcerting thing about this Melissa thing is that this wasn't exactly "Storm of the Century" spinning out there. It was powerful, but nothing that out of the ordinary.

True, it was there for an unusually long time, which meant the storm had a long chance to keep piling water up against the East Coast.

Also true was a high pressure system to the north of Melissa - the one that brought most of us here in Vermont some spectacular fall weather - also helped steer water and waves against the coast.

So those were contributing factors. But really. A strong but not all that unusual storm causing such flooding bodes poorly for the future. Especially since astronomical tides this week were pretty low. If there had been a full or new moon during Melissa, there would have been even bigger trouble.

This flooding wasn't just making for narrow beaches and wet ground underfoot. Some people had to be rescued from homes in flood prone coastal Sea Bright, New Jersey, NBC Philadelphia reported.

By Saturday, as Melissa was finally getting ready to depart, the moon was much closer to full, so that, in combination of the storm, sent ocean water into downtown Annapolis, Maryland, says the Baltimore Sun.

The Charlotte Observer says that on Cape Hatteras, waves trapped cars on Route 12, which had to be closed, and caused flooding in Avon, Buxton and other towns on Cape Hatteras.

Splashover and some flooding was reported in coastal New England, too.

All this is going to get worse in the future as sea levels continue to rise. Already, in places like Miami, when astronomical tides are high, there is some flooding even when there is no storm anywhere near Florida.

Along parts of the East Coast, this is double trouble because not only is the sea level rising, but land is sinking due to natural processes.

The East Coast, of course, has always had coastal flooding, battering waves and erosion from storms. Those nor'easters and hurricanes will always keep happening. But as time goes by and sea levels keep going up, those nor'easters and other storms will have more and more power to cause worse and worse coastal flooding because the ocean is higher to begin with, even before the storm.

The destruction will be especially bad when we get the inevitable super storm, like the extreme New England hurricanes of 1815 and 1938;  the Ash Wednesday super nor'easter of 1962 or the Perfect Storm from 1991.

As lovely as large swaths of the East Coast can be, I'm certainly not going to invest in oceanfront property.  I have to wonder about insurance, the economy and survival of coastal communities will be like in coming decades.

North Carolina Can't Catch A Break From Flooding

It rained wicked hard in North Carolina Friday and Friday night

This just days after it snowed really hard in interior North Carolina and poured rain along the coast, one to three inches of rain came down on the state's saturated soil.  Coastal Wilmington got 1.84 inches of rain while snow was burying communities further west and north last weekend.

Flooding in Lumberton, North Carolina from Hurricane Florence
this past September.

Rivers are flooding again in North Carolina this morning. At least the flooding isn't as bed as the epic, record flooding from Hurricane Florence earlier this year.

I mentioned the other day that many places in the eastern half of the nation are experiencing their rainiest or close to rainiest year on record this year. Ground zero is North Carolina.

By the time you read this, Wilmington, North Carolina will have had 100 inches of rain for the year. By midnight last night, Wilmington was up to 99.72 inches. Another 0.08 fell in the five hours ending at 5 a.m. and a slug of moderate to heavy rain was on the city's doorstep.

The city will beat its previous record for wettest year by at least 16 inches of precipitation. In the rare cases when a city beats its annual rainfall record, it's usually by an inch or two at the most.

Each of the past five years in North Carolina have been wet. They could use a break.

According to some of the flood warnings up this morning in North Carolina, some houses that were devastated by flooding from Florence are going to hit again. That is if any of those houses still exist after Florence.

Flooding is pretty widespread this month in the Southeast. Last weekend, up to 11 inches of rain fell on southern Georgia and northern Florida, flooding homes in Waycross, Georgia and other cities.

High water was also reported around Charleston, South Carolina.

Up here in Vermont, the worst of the storms continue to miss us in December, much as they have for a lot of 2018. The southeastern storm will clip us a bit Sunday night, dropping a very modest amount of rain and snow. A little more snow will come with a cold front Monday and Monday night, but again, it won't be a huge deal.

We'll finish the year a little wetter than normal, but nothing record breaking, nothing spectacular.

Leave It To A Vermonter To (Try) To Get Southern Snow Motorist Unstuck

Jim Cantore, in blue coast crouched in front of car, tries to get a Boone,
North Carolina car unstuck from deep snow this weekend. 

As you might have seen recently on the news, the Southeast has been hit with an unusually severe snowstorm.

Some areas in North Carolina were hit by a foot and a half of snow. Of course, the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore was there, because he's always there for any big storm.

There's one video circulating that's just typical. In hard-hit Boone, North Carolina a car got stuck in deep snow. Southerners aren't used to snow, so you can tell they were a bit flummoxed.

Cantore, though, is originally from snowy Vermont, orchestrated a rescue of the stuck car. Talk about taking charge!  You do this, you do that, he's instructing people on camera.

By the end of the video, the car is not quite yet unstuck, but all I could think of while watching the video is an old curmudgeon but secretly kind Vermont farmer trying to get some skier flatlander's SUV unstuck from a snowy rural road on the way to Killington.

You just can't take the Vermonter out a Vermonter, no matter where they end up, can you? Here's the oddly entertaining video:

New Carolina Flooding Week After Florence; Severe Vermont Weather Wednesday?

Dead fish on Interstate 40 in North Carolina after water
receded off the roadway.

Hurricane Florence began to depart the Carolinas a week ago today, after spending a full weekend drenching the region in record rains.

It hasn't really rained in the Carolinas since, but water from Florence is still causing worsening flooding even today.

Some rivers in the Southeast drain slowly, so flood crests move downstream slowly.

So, up to 8,000 people in Georgetown County, South Carolina have been told to get out of their houses by today, as a flood crests from the Pee Dee and Waccama rivers approach.

The Pee Dee River has already caused destructive flooding upstream in North Carolina.

In North Carolina five rivers remain at major flood stage and several more are at least at moderate flood levels. Some water has receded near Wilmington, North Carolina, which had been cut off because flooding had submerged all routes into the city last week. That's the good news.

The bad news is the Cape Fear River is still rising, and could send floodwaters into downtown Wilmington, which had earlier largely escaped the worst of the flooding.

Parts of Interstates 95 and 40 remain closed, as do dozens of main state highways in North and South Carolina.

At last check the death toll from Florence was at 43. The Weather Channel says Moody's Analytics puts the damage total so far from Florence at about $44 billion, making this one of the top 10 costliest disasters in recent United States history.

Water receded from one stretch of Interstate 40, leaving parts of the highway littered with thousands of dead fish. The Penderlea, North Carolina Fire Department was called in to spray the dead fish off the highway with their hoses.

"Well, we can add 'washing fish off the interstate" to the long list of interesting things firefighters get to experience," the fire department said in a Facebook post.

VERMONT SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY?

The area in yellow could see severe thunderstorms Wednesday.
Note that Vermont is in this zone. 

It's becoming possible that severe thunderstorms could hit Vermont on Wednesday, along with a big chunk of the rest of the Northeast

We're enjoying tranquil autumn weather today with highs in the pleasantly cool low 60s (as opposed to the record 91 degree heat on this date last year.) The weather looks like it will get, um, interesting over the next couple of days.

First, a warm front will move across the region Tuesday. The good news with that is it will spread more showers across the area, which still needs more rain. Gusty winds will again get going in the Champlain Valley, but it won't be as harsh as it was on Friday.

After the warm front passes, we'll get into a zone of warm, humid air for this time of year. In the Champlain Valley,  highs could approach 80 degrees on Wednesday if the sun comes out enough, and it will feel sticky.

The amount of sun we get Wednesday will be one important factor on whether some thunderstorms that develop will turn severe.

A cold front will be approaching in an atmosphere with strong upper level winds and other conditions suitable for strong thunderstorms. If it remains overcast, the air will remain relatively stable and rambunctious thunderstorms will be few and far between.

If the sun comes out, the air will be more unstable, and the line of storms coming into Vermont from New York would be stronger. In any event, not everyone will get a severe storm Wednesday. But it's possible a few areas could get damaging wind gusts.

A lot can change between now and Wednesday. We'll want to wait and see if the timing of the cold front, and whether the atmosphere will be unstable enough for an outbreak of strong storms. We'll keep you posted.

Video: A fire department hoses dead fish off of Interstate 40 in North Carolina as flood waters recede, in that area, anyway:

Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off By Florence Floods

People lined up outside one of the few open grocery stores in
Wilmington, North Carolina Sunday. Photo from NBC News

There is now no way to get in or out of Wilmington, North Carolina, at least on the roads.

All roads that lead to and from Wilmington, a city with a population of more than 117,000 are covered in flood water from ex-hurricane Florence.

I don't remember the last time a city was so marooned by a disaster. Maybe New Orleans in Hurricane Katrina?  Last year with Hurricane Harvey in Texas?

NBC News reports that few stores and restaurants are open in Wilmington and those that are have only limited supplies of food. On top of that, power is largely out, many of the streets that aren't flooded are a tangled mess of debris, fallen trees and wires. Many buildings have damaged roofs from the 90 mph winds Friday morning and are leaking as more rain falls.

At one supermarket, staff allowed only ten people at a time into the store to maintain order, NBC News said. There was a huge, long line out front. Scuffles broke out at another supermarket.

As you can see in such a big disaster, nerves get extremely frayed after days of dealing with this mess.

At least 17 people have died in the storm so far. Some videos of this storm's effects are at the bottom of this post.

To add to the misery the storm spun off some tornadoes. A television station in Wilmington had to go off the air for awhile as staff took shelter during a tornado warning. When they got back on the air, the roof was leaking.

Many rivers in North and South Carolina are at or near record levels. Even as the rain tapers off, it will take weeks in some cases for the water to recede. This is a long-haul disaster for sure.

Florence, or its remains lingered over the Carolinas all weekend, but it's finally starting to move. It will travel up the Appalachian chain and then head east over or near southern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for this path, although the rain won't be as heavy or nearly as prolonged as it was in North Carolina. Two to four inches of rain are likely in southern New England.

The remains of Florence will likely miss the northern half of Vermont. Southern Vermont will get some downpours.

This is all too bad. Southern Vermont doesn't really need the rain, but northern Vermont does. We can't catch a break, can we?  

On the bright side, the big burst of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has subsided big time, at least for now.

Tropical Storm Joyce way out in the eastern Atlantic, has been downgraded to a depression and will probably dissipate. It is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Isaac in the Caribbean dissipated and its remnant cluster of showers and thunderstorms was near Jamaica this morning. There's only a small chance that Isaac will redevelop.

ABC News gives us an aerial view of someo of the widespread flooding:



Interesting perspective from a guy who returned to his house for the first time after fleeing. About 12 to 16 inches of water got into the house. The man said he's lucky because they have a second floor and moved some of their possessions upstairs before the flood hit:



Here, the Coast Guard rescues about a dozen beagles from a flooded pen. They said had they got there just a bit later, the dogs would have drowned.

Videos Show Chaos Continuin In The Carolinas As Florence Unleashes Torrents

A common scene in the Carolinas now as Florence continues to
dump feet of rain on the region.

The winds have largely diminished with what was Hurricane Florence in North and South Carolina ut the expected catastrophic rains are coming down.

Major flooding is reported in wide areas in the eastern halves of these states and it will only get worse today.

So far, seven deaths have been reported with Florence. More than a million people don't have electricity. There have been hundreds of water rescues ane many more will surely happen this weekend.

As of late last night, as much as 23 inches of rain had already fallen and it's still pouring today.

News clips and videos emerging from the hurricane zone are showing widespread destruction. I have a few to show, below. I'm sure even more dramatic flood videos will come out this weekend.

We'll start with this ABC News clip, which captures the wide-ranging chaos:



This Washington Post video of horribly flooded New Bern, North Carolina reminds me of the scene and response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas last year:



In this video, a light is still somehow on in a submerged house being slapped by waves in the North Carolina flood waters:



Early on in the storm, this gas station canopy in Topsail Beach, North Carolina topples in the wind. Then this heavy thing actually blows away! Watch:

Tropical Depression Strikes Indiana Of All Places, Bad Flooding Elsewhere

Tropical Depression Alberto still has a well defined tropical-like
circulation over Indiana on Wednesday. 

This morning, former subtropical Storm Alberto was still a tropical depression - in Indiana of all places.

Alberto has held together remarkably well as a tropical system. Usually, they transition pretty quickly to non-tropical storm systems or disturbances soon after moving inland.

Alberto will indeed become just a regular old inland weather system later today, but it's survivability into Indiana is pretty incredible.

Satellite photos from this morning show a well defined pinwheel Tropical Depression Alberto centered not far from Terre Haute, Indiana.

This is a big example of what's known as the "brown ocean."  The tropical disturbance can hold together becuase there is no influence from an upper level low that would disrupt the circulation. Also, there was plenty of low level and moisture from the ground to support the tropical system.

Remember, tropical systems depend on warm water to maintain their strength and integrity. When they go inland, that source of nutrition for tropical systems ends. Usually. Except in cases like this when there's nothing to disrupt them and there's plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with.

North Carolina Department of Transportation truck swept into a river
Tuesday. The two workers in the truck were rescued. 

While the actual circulation of Alberto is relatively small, it drew huge quantities of tropical, wet air into parts of the nation, causing or at least greatly contributing to some pretty horrible flash floods in some locations.

Western North Carolina was especially hard hit, with plenty of evacuations, water rescues, road closures and property damage.

Even the famed Biltmore Estate in Asheville was affected: The main entrance to the mansion and tourist attraction was blocked by floodwaters.

Ashville has had its wettest May on record.

Interstate 40 in McDowell County, North Carolina was closed due to landslides and flooding. Two North Carolina state highway workers had to be rescued from the flooding.

A flash flood emergency was also declared in parts of Alabama as well. Many roads are closed and people had to be rescued from at least one flooded home.

GERMANY FLOOD, TOO

Flash flooding seems to to be all the rage this week across much of the world. We had the Ellicott City, Maryland disaster on Sunday. Other flash floods struck parts of the Rocky Mountains. Areas of Great Britaina and particularly Germany have also been slammed by these floods.

Roads and buildings flooded, roofs collapsed and people were rescued, especially around the city of Wuppertal, Germany.

Some videos:

Flooding in the Biltmore Village section of Asheville, North Carolina:



Flooding in Germany:

Alberto Update: Two Journalists Die Covering Storm

Alberto over Alabama Tuesday morning.  

Once-Subtropical Alberta, which moved inland yesterday, is still prompting widespread flood alerts and watches and warnings as it slowly moves north toward the Midwest.

Tragically, two journalists in North Carolina died while covering the storm.  A tree fell on a vehicle as WYFF anchor Mike McCormick and photojournalist Aaron Smeltzer covered heavy rains and potential flooding.

The danger from Alberto is from flooding, and the area at risk is pretty widespread. The tragedy in North Carolina was one example of this.

As Alberto made landfall along the Florida Panhandle Monday, a wide fetch of tropical moisture associated with the storm flowed into areas as far away as the Carolinas.

That's why McCormick and Smeltzer were covering the storm. Flood watches and flash flood warnings were in effect Monday in the Carolinas.

This morning, flash flood warnings were up for areas of Alabama, including the Tuscaloosa area. Flash flood watches are up today for a wide area of the Southeast, as they were yesterday. Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky are some of the areas under threat from the flooding today.

The remnants of Alberto will make their way up toward Michigan by Thursday and on up into Canada Friday. Heavy downpours are possible along the storm's path, but I don't expect huge, widespread floods.

Tornado over Colorado Tuesday.
Photo by Daniel Shaw, via Twitter
@DanielShawAU

TROUBLE ELSEWHERE

Monday was quite an active severe weather day in much of the country. It was one of the busiest days of the year for tornadoes, with at least 19 reported. Most of them were in Colorado, but there were a few others in Iowa, Kansas and Utah.

Luckily, most of the tornadoes were in open country and caused relatively little damage.

Today, most of the severe weather, including some risk of tornadoes, heads mostly to central and western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma. Minnesota looks like it will have some strong storms today, too.

The always entertaining and expert photojournalist/stormchaser Pecos Hank captured some of the tornadoes in Colorado Monday, including two that were spinning simultaneously:

Matthew's Legacy: Massive Agricultural Pollution, Maybe Higher Meat Prices?

From Mother Jones, this areal photo of a farm
with a manure lagoon swamped by flooding and \
manure flowing into the river was taken by
Rick Dove of the Waterkeeper Alliance.

The floods from last week's Hurricane Matthew continue to devastate large swaths of North Carolina, and it continues to get worse in spots.

River crests are slowly making their way downstream, and more towns and cities are flooding as a result. 

So far, 22 people in North Carolina have died in the flooding.

That's the most tragic part.

Beyond the grieving, the thousands of ruined houses and businesses, and the long cleanup, are other long lasting effects that will affect many people, including some of us far from the flood zone.

The area most affected by the North Carolina flooding has a high concentration of massive chicken and pork farms and producers. Millions of chickens have drowned in the flooding, as have many pigs.

This could raise meat prices across the nation. Paying a little bit extra for meat pales in comparison to the people actually suffering through the floods in North Carolina, but it's still an effect.

Also, according to Mother Jones magazine, the affected chicken and hog farms also had their huge manure lagoons flooded and breached by raging, flooded nearby rivers. That's a major pollution problem to say the least.

Says Mother Jones: 

"Hog manure is loaded with pathogenic bacteria, including antibiotic-resistant ones, antibiotic residues, and plenty of nitrate, with fouls drinking water and also feeds dead zone algae blooms. "

The pollution will likely mostl affect lower income African communities, notes Mother Jones 

The harm will probably be widespread. In 1999, Hurricane Floyd caused massive flooding in the same chicken and hog farm location as Matthew hit. Back in 1999, the resulting flooding and manure pollution created a 350 square mile dead zone in coastal estuaries.

It's too soon to say whether the pollution will be as bad as Floyd in 1999, but the fact that there are more chicken in hog farms in the flood zone than back then, and the flooding is very severe this time, it doesn't bode well.

Epic Matthew Flooding Continues In North Carolina

Areal view of Lumberton, North Carolina. Photo
by Chris Keane/Reuters  

So far 11 people have died in the huge flooding in North Carolina, all caused by departing Hurricane Matthew, which dumped up to 15 inches of rain on the state over the weekend.

The flood highlights the principal danger of hurricanes - water - and the continued threat of enormous floods from a warmer atmosphere.  

Though a single storm like Matthew cannot prove or disprove global warming, some of what happened with Matthew in North Carolina might have the finger prints of climate change on it.

It wasn't entirely global warming, obviously. There have always been hurricanes on the East Coast, and many of them throughout history  have caused serious flooding.

However, certain aspect of the atmosphere might have made the North Carolina flooding even worse than it otherwise would have been.

As Capital Weather Gang notes, the Atlantic Ocean waters off the coast of North Carolina were at near record highs as Matthew came into the picture.

Record ocean temperatures increased evaporation, which put record high amounts of moisture into the atmosphere. That, combined with the strong hurricane winds propelling the moisture inland, a weather front that set up along the coast created a temperature contrast in which the wet, warm air was forced to rise over some cooler air.

Rising air unleashes even more rain, so the downpours became extreme, dumping at rates of up to four inches an hour. (For reference, here in Vermont during the summer, it normally takes four or five weeks to accumulate four inches of rain.)

The North Carolina floods come in a year that has seen other extreme so called 100-year floods in the nation, including in West Virginia, Maryland, Louisiana and Texas.

It's not so much one storm signals climate change (it doesn't.) It's just that the overall trends continue to be troubling.

Here's a kayaker's view of the flooding in Fayettville, North Carolina, which partly includes kayaking through the interior of an inundated building:

Matthew Slogs On, And Away From Matthew, Tornadoes, Snow And Frost

From television station WRAL: A man awaits rescue
on a North Carolina roof amid Hurricane Matthew's flooding

Hurricane Matthew, now a post-tropical storm, took one more deadly swipe, probably the worst yet, on its trip along the southeastern United States coast.

The storm dumped incredible amounts of rain on South Carolina and especially North Carolina Saturday and last night.

That, combined with brutal storm surges, caused another in a series of extreme floods the nation has suffered.

There's been hundreds of water rescues in North Carolina. (You'll see one at the bottom of this post.)

Television station WRAL in North Carolina said so far, four deaths have been reported in the state from Matthew. The television station has counted 574 people saved in 227 water rescues in Cumberland County alone, with more people still on roofs, awaiting rescue.

This sounds very much like the extreme Louisiana flood earlier this year.

According to a WRAL report last night: 

"'The city is under water,' the Raleigh Police Department said as night began to fall. 'Every officer in the city is on a weather-related call. Officers can't respond to anything else at this time. Please, please, please stay home. It is unsafe to be out.'"

Up to 15 inches of rain fell on North Carolina, and winds gusted to 80 mph along the coast. Storm surge flooding and flash floods were still ongoing in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia early Sunday morning.

OTHER WEATHER:

A tornado in Kansas Thursday, proof that Matthew wasn't
the only wild weather in the nation this week.  

While we were all glued to the antics and destruction of Hurricane Matthew, the weather sort of went off the rails in other parts of the country as well.

In Kansas Thursday, several tornadoes touched down ahead of a fairly strong cold front.

The Wichita Eagle reports three houses damaged east of Salina. Several outbuildings were also damaged, schools went on lockdown to protect students who would have gone out in threatening weather in the afternoon, and power was cut to some neighborhoods.

No injuries were reported.

The Storm Prediction Center received reports of 20 tornadoes in Kansas and western Iowa.

Meanwhile, behind the cold front, snow fell in places like northwestern Nebraska, parts of Colorado and Wyoming and northern Minnesota.

Frost and freezes were widespread across the northern Plains this morning, too.

It might be warm where you are, but winter is still coming.

The cold front that caused the weather in Plains is heading toward New England in weakened form. The Indian Summer weather we're now enjoying in Vermont is going by the wayside in favor of seasonably cool autumn weather Sunday and Monday.

That means highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, with scattered frost. Very typical for this time of year.

Here's a clip of a tornado lumbering through Kansas two days ago:




 Here's a water rescue in North Carolina as workers save a baby and his mom from a flooded car:

 

Matthew Makes Landfall In Haiti; Worst Case Scenario Unfolding

Deadly Hurricane Matthew over Haiti Monday morning
as seen in this visible satellite image.  

Hurricane Matthew made landfall this morning as a Category 4 storm packing winds of 145 mph near the southwestern Haitian city of Les Anglais.

It was the second strongest hurricane to hit Haiti in history.

As you can imagine, early reports are sketchy, but there is sure to be massive amounts of casualties as massive Matthew slowly roars past Haiti.

A couple videos emerging from Haiti Monday morning as the eye hit showed incredible winds sending disintegrating trees and sending debris flying.

Many hours before Matthew arrived in Haiti, things had gotten bad Monday. Severe coastal flooding, and inland flooding was occuring 12 hours before the eye of the storm made landfall.

Reuters reported a man was killed in the seaside town of Port Salut when a wave crashed through his house. The guy was too sick to evacuate, so he was forced to stay.

Inside Hurricane Matthew's eyewall in Haiti. Extreme
winds are causing major damage, but the flooding
will be even worse.  

Rainfall, which is the biggest danger in Haiti from Matthew, was already extreme on Monday.

In neighboring Dominican Republic, a town on the south coast received 22.91 inches of rain within 13 hours on Monday, including 5.33 inches in just one hour.

The National Hurricane Center is still saying Haiti could receive up to 40 inches of rain from Matthew.    

Marshall Shepherd (you might know him from the Weather Channel show "Weather Geeks" pointed out that historically, Haiti has it the worst with hurricane deaths.

He published a chart on Twitter that showed historic hurricanes like Hazel in 1954 Flora in 1963, Gordon in 1994 and Jeanne in 2004 each killed thousands of people in Haiti, while deaths from those same storms in other nations totaled in the dozens at most.

From here, Matthew will hit eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Because of land interaction with Haiti, Matthew will weaken slightly this morning, but could restrengthen over the warm waters surrounding the Bahamas

The Bahamas are in for a HUGE blow. It will be devastating there as well.

More than 12 hours before Matthew hit Haiti,
there was already storm surge flooding
going on.  

Forecast tracks for Matthew have shifted west toward the southeastern United States coasts. Matthew is now expected to skirt very close to the east coast of Florida and hurricane watches are likely to be hoisted there any time now.

States of emergency are out for Florida and North Carolina to help those areas get ready for Matthew's impacts. Florida would be most affected by Matthew Friday and it would reach North Carolina by early Sunday.

It's too soon to say how heavy a blow Matthew will inflict on places like Florida and North Carolina. It depends on its strength and exact track, and we don't know exactly how things will work out.

There's a decent chance Matthew could make landfall in Florida, which of course would be terrible in that heavily populated region of the nation.

If Matthew makes landfall as a major hurricane in Florida, it would be the first time a hurricane that strong has hit the United States in at least a decade. A major hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Complicating things more is how Matthew will interact with a fairly weak tropical storm expected to form well northeast of Matthew out in the open Atlantic.

It's also too soon to figure out what Matthew will do, if anything beyond North Carolina. In New England, the hope is it will stay far enough offshore to limit strong winds but close enough to dump heavy rain on the region, which is experiencing a drought.

That seems to be the expected track of Matthew now, but things could easily change dramatically. Stay tuned.

Julia The Weirdo Continues To Confuse Forecasters

Tropical Depression Julia was still a disorganized mess
off the Southeastern U.S. coast Sunday morning
but the weird little storm still has life in her.  

When last we left Tropical Storm Julia, we were remarking how weird it was that a cluster of thunderstorms that pretty much no chance of developing into a tropical storm did so.

And Julia did form into a tropical storm. Over land, which almost never happens. Over northeastern Florida, to be specific. Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes form over warm ocean water.

We thought Julia would live its entire short life over land, which would be unprecedented. But nope, she fooled us again, jumping to just offshore Georgia and dumping heavy rain on the coasts of that state and South Carolina.

Next, we were assured that strong upper level winds would tear Julia apart and it would be a nothing burger by now.

Wrong again!  Tropical Depression Julia, downgraded from a tropical storm a few days ago is still east of Georgia and South Carolina, just further offshore now, and showing signs of making a comeback.

Julia is still a disorganized mess, with those strong upper level winds keeping thunderstorms well away from its center. Tropical systems don't develop or get stronger when this kind of thing happens.  You want the powerful thunderstorms to fire up near the center of the storm.

Usually, when the upper level winds keep up, the thunderstorm production finally dies, and so does the wannabe tropical system.

Julia is still firing up thunderstorms, though. Persistent little devil. And now, those strong upper level winds might relax, and that would give Julia a chance to restrengthen. Also some signs point to Julia drifting north toward North Carolina.

Julia has confused and put eggs on the faces of just about every hurricane forecasters since she formed last week. I bet she will continue to do so. Which means anything could happen with Julia. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Karl is out there in the middle of the Atlantic. Unlike Julia, Karl's generally behaving, taking a very typical path from the west coast of Africa and traveling westward across the tropical Atlantic.

He's expected to be upgraded to a hurricane in a few days, which is not unusual for this type of system. It's also expected to recurve to the north, away from the East Coast. Again, this happens a lot.

However, a small number of forecast models nudge Karl a little closer to the East Coast eventually. Doubt that will happen, but it's worth keeping half an eye on anyway.

Winter Storms Erase Part Of Iconic N.Carolina Pier

The far end of the Rodanthe Pier in North Carolina
crumbles into the churning Atlantic Ocean this week.  

It's no secret that some immense fall and winter storms have been battering the U.S. East Coast in recent years.

Exhibit A: The expected blizzard/nor'easter that is expected to pound New England and the Maritime Provinces of Canada Sunday.

These repeated storms finally took a toll on one place in North Carolina this week: The Rodanthe Pier on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

I'd always see footage of waves blasting underneath the pier on the evening news when a hurricane or severe storm threatens the East Coast. Finally, there have been at least one or two too many storms for the pier. At least the far end of it.

A bad nor'easter caused a lot of damage in December, and another nor'easter - the only one to miss New England this month - finally did the end of the pier in around Wednesday and Thursday.

Pretty dramatic video, and interesting story told by television station WAVY in Portsmouth, VA.:

Here it is:

North Carolina Tornadoes Just The Start: Several Days of Tornadoes Due

There were at least eight reports of tornadoes in North Carolina Friday, which was the opening salvo of what looks to be may be the worst outbreak of severe weather in the United States this year.

A tornado in Green County, North Carolina Friday.  

At least 15 people were hospitalized and around 140 homes were destroyed or severely damaged, according to AccuWeather.

The North Carolina storms were part of an initial storm system that is slowly trudging off the East Coast this weekend.

The storm will spread rain through New England and other parts of the Northeast today, but there will be no more severe weather from this system.

However, a much bigger storm is brewing in the High Plains. The first of the severe storms should fire up today in a long, skinny line in the High Plains from Texas to South Dakota. Enormous hail, high winds, and maybe a few tornadoes will get going this evening in that neck of the woods.

Sunday, the threat intensifies, and strong tornadoes are possible, especially in areas around northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma and most of Arkansas.

This storm is a slow mover, so more strong tornadoes are possible in the lower Mississippi Valley Monday, and in the Deep South Tuesday.  Let's hope the biggest tornadoes roar through open fields and rural areas, and miss any towns.

You'll surely hear about this bad outbreak of tornadoes and severe storms in the news. High winds, huge hail and quite a bit of flooding are also likely with this.

Up here where we are in the Northeast: Yes, that storm system will get here by the end of the week, but by then, it'll just be rain. Although there might end up being strong thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic Coast on south by then, up in New England, early indications are it won't be anything extreme when it gets here.

Here's a YouTube package with still photos and some video of Friday's North Carolina tornadoes.

Will Charlotte, Raleigh, North Carolina Be The Next Atlanta?

As that huge ice and snowstorm continues to blast the Southeast, the latest trouble spot seems to North Carolina.

In this image from @wxbrad via Twitter,
traffic is backing up in Charlotte, N.C. and
some people are abandoning cars.  

It's beginning to look like cities like Charlotte and Raleigh might be the next Atlanta. We'll see.

As of 2 p.m. Tuesday,  The Weather Channel and other media outlets were reporting major traffic backups as people in those bigger North Carolina cities try to get out of work and get home before the worst of the storm hits.

Only problem is, the storm HAS hit.

North Carolina is beginning to look reminiscent of the problems last month in Atlanta, when everybody fled schools and work at midday as a snow fall intensified, and ended up getting trapped in massive traffic jams on skating rink highways for up to 20 hours.

This time, Atlanta is getting an ice storm and pretty much everybody, spooked by what happened last time, stayed home, so there's almost no traffic on Atlanta metro freeways.

Let's hope that places like Charlotte and Raleigh don't get as bad as Atlanta did.