Storm Update: Today Still Looks Dangerous South; East Coast Danger Monday

Opening salvo: Huge hail in Del Rio,
Texas Saturday.  Tornadoes, high winds,
floods, etc are risks in the South
and East today and Monday. 

We're getting into the thick of the storm in the Deep South this morning and it will only get worse as the day wears on.

As expected, it started in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday, mostly with scattered reports of huge hail.  One supercell crossed the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, throwing hail almost the size of grapefruit  down on that city last night. Baseball sized hail blasted a few towns in Kansas.

Tornado warnings were already flying this morning in northeastern Texas. This is the beginning of several waves of thunderstorms going across the Deep South this morning.

All of these storms will be dangerous, but forecasters are in particular watching central and southern Mississippi early this afternoon. There, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, supercells are expected to develop, the move across Alabama later in the afternoon and Georgia toward evening.

These are the storms that are most likely to set off strong, especially dangerous long lasting tornadoes. It's not certain whether these strong tornadoes will actually happen. But there is that risk.

Amid all this,  torrential rains and flooding are a very good bet across much of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There's going to be a lot of damage and heartache in the South this Easter Sunday, unfortunately.

It's now becoming apparent Monday won't be that much better. The rough weather will have ended in the Deep South, but there will be trouble along the entire East Coast from Maine to Florida.

Severe thunderstorms are likely with a risk of tornadoes, will run from Pennsylvania to Florida, with the highest risk of stronger, longer lasting twisters in Virginia and the Carolinas, along with southeastern Georgia.  There's a chance that some of the Carolina tornadoes could be as bad, or nearly as bad as the ones expected in the Deep South today.

Even in pretty big severe weather outbreaks like this, most people in the affected zone will come out of this fine with little or no property damage. But people need to be weather aware in these zones, so if they are unlucky enough to be in the target of a severe storm or tornado, they can take cover.

In New England, there will be few if any severe thunderstorms, but strong, damaging winds will come through. Wind gusts could easily reach 70 mph in the New York City metro area and in the southern half of New England.

Further west, gusts in the 70 mph range are also expected in western New York. These kinds of winds will bring down lots of trees and power lines in heavily populated areas.  There's going to be a lot of power outages, and probably more than a few houses and buildings smushed by falling trees.

Southwest winds will be so strong that Lake Erie will tilt, with water piling up on the northeast corner of the lake near Buffalo.  Water levels will fall as much as seven feet on the western end of the lake, and rise by at least five feet near Buffalo. Battering waves will make things worse.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will be a relative island of calm amid all this but that doesn't mean we'll avoid trouble. While the highest winds will probably go by to our west and east, we will still get strong gusty winds.

Ahead of the powerful storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will strike especially the Champlain Valley. We'll all get a pretty good slug of rain, with still a risk of some flooding up in the Northeast Kingdom.

When the cold front sweeps through in the afternoon, we'll get heavier, but relatively brief downpours, with maybe some scattered thunderstorms embedded.

The worst winds will come in right after the cold front. In Vermont, many places will have winds gusting to near 50 mph.  That's enough to topple some trees, especially since the soil is wet and loose this time of year, and with all the rain expected Monday. Branches and power lines could go, too, so be ready for that!

Things will calm down somewhat by Tuesday. It'll still be kind of windy on Tuesday, but not gusty enough to cause more problems.

Here's a video of the hail in Del Rio, Texas. I like the comment from someone in the video, "Insurance adjusters, beware." Indeed!

"Flash Drought" Hitting Southeastern United States

The U.S Drought Monitor map from a week ago. Yellow indicates
abnormally dry, shades of orange are drought. Notice how
much more orange there is, especially in the Southeast,
in this week's map, below.

We've all heard of flash floods, when a torrential downpour turns quiet water into raging torrents pretty much instantaneously. That's why we call them flash floods. Duh! They hit in a flash.

There's actually such a thing a flash drought, too, believe it or not. Droughts usually develop over months or even years as persistent below normal rainfall dries out the ground, rivers and aquafers.

Under the right conditions, a strong weather pattern can create a drought in just a few weeks. That's what's now happening over the southeastern United States, as the Weather Channel reports. 

We've talked about that persistent heat ridge that has been stuck over the Southeast for over a month now. That has created the perfect conditions for a flash drought.

Of course, high pressure prevents rain from falling. The sinking air in a high pressure system tamps down clouds, so you don't get billowing clouds that can produce rain.

This weather pattern has also brought at least three weeks of record high temperatures, too. In general, the higher the temperature, the faster things dry out. Such is the case in the Southeast, where daytime temperatures have been consistently in the 90s or even 100s.

A great example of the weather that brought on this flash drought is Macon, Georgia.  They reached 102 yesterday, the hottest for so late in the season. It was the third day this month where it got to 100 degrees. Only one day so far this September has failed to reach 90 degrees in Macon.  Even worse, Macon has only received 0.02 inches of rain so far this month. They should have gotten a good three inches during that time period.

Much more orange this week as drought rapidly intensifies
and expands in the southeastern United States.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows how fast this is developing. A week ago, 15 percent of Alabama was experiencing drought. This week, its more like 34 percent.

In Georgia, it's even worse. A week ago, about a quarter of that state was in drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor says this week, almost three quarters of Georgia is experiencing drought. That's an incredibly fast change for a building drought.

The flash drought also extends well into Texas, except in areas around Houston that drowned in flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda earlier this month.

The flash drought sneaks in to a lesser extent into New England, including here in Vermont.  There are currently no official drought regions in Vermont, but 72 percent of the Green Mountain State is regarded as abnormally dry by the U.S. Drought Monitor. That's up from 46 percent last week.

Vermont is on the northern edge of that heat ridge causing the baking dryness down south. Northern Vermont has been blessed by a series of weather fronts that have dumped some decent, but not overwhelming rains.  The southern half to two thirds of Vermont has lately largely missed out on these showers, hence the increasing dryness.

The weather outlook in the Southeast isn't very good. They will endure a few more days of record heat, along with a continued lack of rain through the weekend.

Extended forecasts into first ten days of October indicate continued warm, dry conditions in the Southeast. Up here in New England, it looks like it will turn chillier and wetter (mountain snows?) during early October.

Tornadoes Are Appearing Farther East Than They Used To

Part of a rotating mini supercell looking north from Sheldon, Vermont on
May 4. This storm did NOT produce a tornado, though a tornado
watch was in effect at the time and a twister hit New Hampshire
that day. Tornaodes are increasing in the eastern U.S.

In this here blog thingy, I've remarked about the unusual number of tornadoes in the Northeast in 2018.

There's certainly no additional ones on the immediate horizon, but this year's Northeast mini-tornado alley might be part of a larger thing.

Scientists have concluded that over the past few decades there are somewhat fewer twisters in "Tornado Alley"-- places like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas -- and more tornadoes east of the Mississippi River.

According to the Associated Press:

"Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study in Wednesday's journal Climate and Atmopheric Science."

Tornado frequency in the Northeast is low, but it has ticked upward.

"The study looked at changes since 1979. Everywhere east of the Mississippi, except the west coast of Florida, is seeing some increase in tornado activity. The biggest increase occurred in states bordering the Mississippi River," reports the AP.

This eastward trend in tornadoes is bad because the more eastern twisters are hitting in places that are more heavily populated than "Tornado Alley."  Also, people are more likely to live in mobile homes east of the Mississippi, and those homes are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.

When you get a tornado warning, you shouldn't look for the tornado. You should get into a shelter. But people naturally do look for the twister, even though it's a dangerous idea. In the East, it's harder to see a tornado coming because there are so many more trees in the way. That could make tornadoes deadlier, too.

The eastern tornadoes are also more likely to happen at night, when people might sleep through warnings or otherwise be unaware a twister is approaching.

Scientists aren't sure why there's an eastward shift in tornadoes and can't specifically pin it on global warming. But, say authors of this study, the shift if consistent with climate change.

Tornadoes often form along or near a "dry line" which is a sharp usually north to south line with very humid air to the east and very dry air to the west. Climate change seems to be shifting the average location of this dry line eastward, so it makes sense that tornadoes would form more to the east as well.

Scientists want to do more research to see if the eastern tornadoes are indeed part of global warming's effects, or whether something else is going on.

Enormous Heat Wave Poised To Hit Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Water shoots from a lawn sprinkler in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
a couple of summers ago. You'll want to get under such sprinklers to
cool off starting this upcoming weekend as a nasty heat wave
looks set to strike. 

When I was a kid, I used to love summertime heat waves. It meant time in the swimming pool and at the beach, lazy evenings chasing fireflies, and the smell of the night woods coming through the windows on muggy nights.

I don't like such weather anymore. I often have to work outside, and I melt in the heat. A medication I take forces me to overheat, sweat excessively and dehydrate in hot weather.

Which is why I have liked this summer so far. We haven't had any prolonged spells of heat and humidity, and we've had a fair share of cool, breezy days.

My luck is about to run out. But if you like heat waves you finally will get your chance soon. After a few more nice, cool-ish days at the beginning of this week, it looks more and more likely we'll be in the throes of a big heat wave by next weekend.

This one looks like it could be a doozy, too. It will probably last several days, and temperatures won't merely be close to 90. It's possible they'll zoom well past 90 degrees into near record territory by Sunday or Monday. And there's even a very slight chance - if strong thunderstorms don't develop near the International Border - that Burlington could see its first 100 degree reading since 1995.

The upper level ridge of high pressure that will set up over the eastern United States by the weekend is forecast to be stronger than the typical summertime heat ridge. That explains the risk of near record temperatures in parts of the Midwest and the East.

Up here in northern New England, we'll be close to the northern edge of this heat ridge. Usually when these heat waves set up, batches of thunderstorms, often strong ones, ride along the northern edge of these heat zones.

If these develop, the storms might temper the heat ever so slightly in the northern reached of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but don't count on that yet. And, like I said, the storms could be strong, which would lead to a new problem, of course.

On the bright side, while fleeing to the outdoors on the upcoming stifling nights, you might see decent displays of heat lightning to the north in Quebec toward Sunday or Monday. (Heat lightning is just regular lightning that's so far away you can't hear the thunder.)

It's hard to say how long the heat locally here in Vermont will last, but at this point, I don't see signs of any significant relief until a week from this coming Thursday. Which means the heat and humidity could last close to a week. We'll see about that.

Before the heat arrives, enjoy another nice cool day today and a pleasant Tuesday. There might even be frost tonight in the coldest mountain hollows, just like there was on Friday. (I'm thinking places like Saranac Lake, New York and Island Pond, Vermont. The rest of us will be fine.)

It looks like we'll get a decent slug of rain coming in Wednesday night into Thursday. Then we'll start to feel the heat Friday, and really get into it Saturday and Sunday.