Real Spring Arrives Today In Vermont

Based on the forecast, I decree that spring arrives in
Vermont today, so we're going to see a lot of things
soon, like this photo taken in my St. Albans,
Vermont yard last year. 

There are many opinions on when spring really arrives.

Climatologists usually pick March 1, which what is normally the three coldest months of the year end.

(This year, March was colder in Vermont than December, January and February, so this was a rare occasion when the climatologists' definition didn't work)

Other people say spring arrives on or around March 21 on the spring equinox, when the day is more or less exactly 12 hours long - in the middle of the process when the day's lengthen toward summer's peak.

My definition of the first day of a Vermont spring is more fluid. That would be the day when we have a big warm up, and there's no immediate sign of a return to winter. The first day of spring is when the snow has finally been defeated and the big spring greenup starts.

It could come on any day in March or April. This year, the first day of spring comes today.

At least in most valleys, the snow has mostly disappeared. Sure, there was fresh snow Saturday morning but that's disappearing fast.

More importantly, we've got a sustained period of spring warmth starting today. And when it inevitably cools down later this week, it won't go back down to winter levels.

Yeah, yeah, it was 70 degrees or so in late February in parts of Vermont. But that was a very odd fluke. As we well know, winter returned in earnest during March. And during the first few days of April, frankly.

The first day of spring - today - and what will happen in the next few days will be totally obvious to the most casual observer.

Early season plants like daffodils and day lilies have poked tentatively out of the ground as of this morning. In a very few protected corners, grass has showed a hint of green.

That timid greening will turn into a stampede today and the rest of this week. No, the Green Mountains of Vermont won't actually be green by week's end, but you'll notice a LOT of progress.

Today began frosty, but the strong April sun will boost temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 60. Very nice. Some clouds will probably come in this afternoon, especially in the north, but it will still be a stunningly nice day.    

You'll be seeing these in Vermont very soon! 

Already, as I write this early Sunday morning, I can see out my office window that the ice has gone out  over the weekend in St. Albans Bay in the northern reaches of Lake Champlain.

By Monday, temperatures will reach the low 70s in many areas. The readings could even flirt with record highs in Montpelier, which happens to have a relatively low record high in place Monday for this time of year (Just 64 degrees.)

It'll be warm on Tuesday, too, as showers move in. There could even be a rumble of thunder thrown in, which is in itself a sign of spring since thunder is much more likely in the warmer times of year than in the winter.

The warmth and rain will rapidly melt snow in the higher elevations, too, so ski season is drawing to a close pretty soon. (The snow melt will keep water levels high in rivers this week, but I don't anticipate much flooding.)

As noted, cold fronts will cool us back down by the end of the week. But when I say it will be "colder" I'm not talking about winter cold. It's spring, after all, so it won't be below zero with a blizzard.

Instead, you'll need a jacket, and you might find yourself scraping ice off the car windshield by the end of the week. No biggie.

This is Vermont, so I'm sure there will be a little more snow before summer, and we've got quite a few subfreezing mornings to get through.

But today turns the chapter to spring. Rejoice.

Flood Threat Rising In Vermont, Surrounding Areas Now Through Wednesday

It's going to be a gorgeous April Saturday here in Vermont with sun and temperatures reaching the low 60s.  

Raging floodwaters crash through trees along
the Lamoille River in Cambridge, Vermont during
spring flooding in April, 2011. Similar scenes
are possible in Vermont, New York and New
Hampshire early next week. 

And that is the beginning of some problems.

Yes, I'm being a killjoy for going negative on some well deserved springlike weather, but today's warmth will help set the stage for what could be some fairly substantial flooding.

Most of the snow is gone from Vermont valley floors, but there's still quite a bit in the mountains.

It's been warm the past few days. Some snow has melted and rivers have risen.

That trend toward rising rivers will continue, starting today and continuing over the next few days as it gets warmer and warmer and rain enters the picture.

The National Weather Service in South Burlinton has got Vermont and northern New York under a flood watch through Wednesday.

It looks like any flooding this weekend won't be too serious. Just the usual low lying fields and low spots on local roads could go under water. But things could get much worse Monday and Tuesday, and maybe into Wednesday.

Here's what the flood watch says:

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE

  MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD ON MAINSTEM RIVERS AS
  WELL AS SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANYONE LIVING NEAR THE
  LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT TAKING
  PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS THIS WEEKEND TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

On Sunday, a warm front will cross Vermont, bringing some rain, especially to northern Vermont and much warm temperatures. Clouds and rain will hold temperatures in the 60s Sunday, but they won't fall much Sunday night.

Monday turns really, really warm, with readings well up into the 70s, possibly near 80 in much of Vermont, northern New York and a good chunk of the rest of northern New England. That will get the snow in the mountains melting super fast, and river water will rise accordingly.

Then a very slow moving cold front enters the picture. Little storms will ripple south to north along the front as it slowly drifts eastward across New York and New England. With a lot of moisture to work with the front and its parade of little storms has the potential to dump 1 to 2 inches of rain across the region.

Normally, two inches of rain wouldn't cause much of a flood worry. But by the time the rain arrives, rivers will probably be nearing or even already over flood stage.

So the stage is set for something that could definitely be worse than the usual springtime lowland flooding. At least moderate flooding is a good bet, which in some areas is high enough to damage some buildings.

The worst case scenario is flooding like that in the Lamoille River basin in Vermont in late April, 2011. Then, buildings were badly damaged in flooding in a stretch from Wolcott to Cambridge.  Such flooding could happen anywhere in Vermont, and parts of New York and New Hampshire by Tuesday.

Such damaging floods aren't guaranteed, but there's a chance. So if you're in a flood prone area, I'd spend the weekend taking precautions. If you can move stuff that would get damaged in a flood, I'd do it. An example might be some store owners in Montpelier, Vermont, which is along the Winooski River.

If you have backstock in your basements, I'd get those items to upper floors now. Homeowners in floodprone areas should get stuff out of the way too. And have a plan to get out of the way pronto in case the rivers rise.

Lake Champlain waters will rise, too, though don't look for a repeat of the 2011 record flood disaster. As of Friday, the lake level was at 97.7 feet, which is a little more than two feet below minor flood stage.

Flood stage is 100 feet, and the lake could reach that level as soon as the end of  next week. At 100 feet, there's minor flooding along the lake, with some low lying roads under water, a few shoreline parks get some flooding and there's often some minor shoreline erosion if it's windy.

My guess is Lake Champlain won't go into major flood territory unless there's a lot of heavy rain later in April and in May.

After the very wet cold front goes through Tuesday night, temperatures will crash. It will snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, and maybe pile up a few inches in the mountains. Valleys might even get a coating. But that won't last long. It's April, so readings will inch toward 50 degrees by the end of the week.

I'll caution again that a serious flood early next week is not certain. We could get lucky and get less rain than forecast, or maybe it won't get as warm as predictions indicate. Then things wouldn't be so bad.  Keep watching forecasts for updates on this one.

But better safe than sorry, right?