"On One Foggy Christmas Eve...."

Dense fog in Yankton, South Dakota this morning. 

I've seen all kinds of weather on Christmas Eve and Christmas.  Snow, cold, wind, clouds, rain, sleet, freezing rain, you name it.

Sometimes there's been a little patchy fog, like when it's raining.  But this time of year, there's usually not much in the way of dense fog. It's most common on still summer and autumn mornings, especially during periods of wet weather.

It's usually too windy and too brisk for much fog to form around Christmas. Which made the song "Rudolph The Red Nosed Reindeer" confuse me when I was a kid. (It can certainly be foggy often in other parts of the world this time of year, but I didn't think about that).

Anyway, I felt an element of surprise Christmas Eve and this morning while on my visit with relatives in Yankton, South Dakota over the dense fog that has enveloped the area this morning.

The fog was widespread over the northern Plains, parts of the Great Lakes and elsewhere this morning. Some of it is freezing fog, which is making trees beautiful and frosty, but slickening roads. Here in Yankton, it was a tad above freezing, so there's no ice out there. But it was still tricky on the roads, as visibility was lousy.

Still, based on evidence found under Christmas trees throughout Yankton, it looks like Santa did manage to break through the fog with the help of Rudolph and successfully deliver all the presents.

Reports are the fog did not hinder Santa anywhere. Which is to be expected.

As I said, it is an unusual weather pattern for Christmas. One that will break up as more wind and storminess starts to glide across the country, returning us to a more normal weather pattern, relativelly speaking.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Vermont Christmases Seem To Be Getting Less White

Snow falls from pine trees in West Rutland, Vermont on Christmas
morning, 2017. It was the only Christmas this decade when
Vermont received a decent amount of fresh snow. 

Vermont is the land of white Christmases, so goes common "knowledge."

The 1954 movie "White Christmas" cemented the idea that Vermont is a beautiful Christmas snowscape, reliable for the twinkling lights glinting beneath the snow and frost in our Currier and Ives-style quaint villages.

But at least in the state's valleys and warmer spots, Vermont is somewhat less what than it might have been decades ago.

The data from Burlington this past decade does show that the chances of white Christmases has been iffy in recent years.  Granted, Burlington is one of the warmer and drier parts of the state, which means there's more likely to be snow on the ground away from the Champlain Valley.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, Burlington has a 77 percent chance of a white Christmas and 13 percent chance of having at least ten inches on the ground.

The decade now ending fell short of that average.

Since 2010, including forecasts for this year, snow was/is on the ground seven out of 10 Christmases, which gives a 70 percent chance of having snow on the ground for the holiday. That's seven percentage points lower than average. Close but no cigar.

This stat is based on a forecast that it will not snow in Vermont by tomorrow morning. The ground in Burlington is pretty much bare, though snow remains in some parts of the state.

Even that 70 percent chance of snow stat is deceiving. Only five of those Christmases had 2 inches or more of snow on the ground. And one of those two-inch years - 2014 -  was during a thaw, so the ground was half bare on Christmas morning and had even had less snow by afternoon.

Only three Christmases had at least six inches of snow on the ground, which means those were unequivocally white.  The deepest snow cover was in 2017, with seven inches, so we fell short of having at minimum one Christmas per decade with at least ten inches of powder on the ground.

We also fell short of the NCDC stat that says five out of ten Christmases should have at least six inches of snow on the ground. This decade, there were only three such years.

By the way, it almost never snowed on Christmas Day in Burlington during this decade. The only year with measureable new snow was 2017, when 3.5 inches fell.  Trace amounts fell on four other Christmases.

If you average out the temperatures for the Christmases over the decade just ending, it was a little on the warm side. For 2019, I'm using the forecast high and low.  If you average out the decade, the mean Christmas temperature was 26.5 which is four degrees above normal.

There were some cold Christmases, but they were outweighed by warm ones. Two of those Christmases - 2014 and 2015 - had highs in the 50s.  In 2015, the high temperature in Burlington on Christmas Eve was  68 degrees, the hottest December temperature on record.

That year, last minute Christmas shoppers strolled Burlington's Church Street Marketplace in t-shirts and shorts.

The coldest Christmas this decades was in 2013, which had a low of zero degrees.

In the record books going back to the late 1880s, the hottest Christmas was in 1964, when it reached 62 degrees. No snow on the ground that holiday!

The coldest Christmas was in 1980, and it was brutal!  The low temperature was 25 degrees, and the high was minus 5, and that occured just after midnight.  Strong north winds made wind chills unbearable. On the bright side, there was nine inches of snow on the ground that year.

On Christmas Day, 1970, there was a whopping 32 inches of snow on the ground in Burlington. This was during the snowiest month on record.

The most new snow on Christmas Day was in 1978, when 16.9 inches fell on December 25 in Burlington.

Start Of Christmas Travel Looks Good, At Least (*Results May Vary)

This map shows the probability of snow through Monday, December 23.
If you're in a white area, it ain't going to snow. 

I'm heading out to South Dakota today to spend Christmas with the inlaws or outlaws, or whatever you want to call them. I'm totally psyched about today's trip.

Before you burglars get any ideas, there's people at the house and people watching it, too, so there's that.

One thing I don't like about traveling this time of year is the weather. It's usually abysmal. Flight delays, icy roads, sleet, snow, freezing rain, intense cold. It's not fun.

For those of you traveling to or from somewhere for Christmas, I'm happy to report an exception this year: Most of us will have a fine trip.  When you return towards New Years, all bets are off, because it's too soon to offer a decent forecast,

An odd, large ridge for this time of year in the upper layers of the atmosphere is giving us a break as we travel before and on Christmas.

This ridge is blocking any chance of a substantial storm, except in the Pacific Northwest and the far Southeast, especially Florida.

That means there's really no storms in most of the country that would delay flights screw up the roads or otherwise make a mess of things.  There is a fast west to east flow across the central and northern United States, so flights might be rather bumpy.  If you're sensitive to that, Dramamine might not be the worst idea.

For those of you who want a white Christmas, things are not looking good, though, at least for much of the snow belt. That ridge of high pressure is warm, and most areas east of the Rockies are in for warmer than normal weather. Read: Above freezing.

Unless you have a ton of snow on the ground, most or all of it will be gone by Christmas.

Here in Vermont, we're not going to get the most intense part of the warmth. But if your snow cover is really thin, you're out of luck. Temperatures in the valleys and mid elevations will get into the 30s Sunday and well into the 40s Monday, which would kill the snow cover.

Christmas will be seasonably cool in the low 30s, but there's nothing I see coming that would make it a white Christmas in the parts of Vermont that don't currently have much snow.

I will be in Yankton, South Dakota for Christmas. You'd think it would be a white Christmas there, but I'm dubious. It'll get up to about 50 there on Sunday, and though it will cool by the time December 25 rolls around, there's not much in the way of storminess coming there either.

But who knows?  Christmas miracles can happen. A weak system could dump a little snow on eastern South Dakota Christmas day Unikely, but possible.

I mentioned in the headline that this tranquil weather pattern will have exceptions.

An atmospheric river is coming off the Pacific Ocean, causing so much rain there is a flood risk for the next couple of days in parts of Washington and Oregon. The rain will taper off somewhat by Christmas, but it will still be damp and drizzly.

In the Southeast, an oddly strong storm will dump a good amount of rain in some areas, especially Florida and eastern Georgia and South Carolina.

By the time we start getting toward New Years, things begin to look stormier and the East and much colder in the middle of the nation but details are still sketchy. Stay tuned!

This Coming Week Super Busy For All Of Us: Here's Weather We'll Deal With

It'll probably look like this occasionally in
Vermont as people rush to get their Christmas
stuff done. 

Today through next weekend is a frantic time for many of us as we get ready for Christmas. There's decorations to keep putting up, there's a lot of holiday shopping and errands to do, parties you either want to or have to go to, or you have to travel.

By next weekend, right before Christmas, I hope things will settle down for you and me. But meanwhile, we Vermonters, as always, have weather to deal with.

So here's a brief day by day breakdown of what you'll have to deal with in the Green Mountain State. Luckily, there's nothing too extreme coming down the pike, but it is Vermont.

There are complications. Also note as we look at things later and later in the week, things might change from current forecasts. But we have a good idea generally what will happen

TODAY (Sunday).  Expect lots of wind.  Pretty much all except western Vermont north of Bennington County is under a wind advisory today for gusts reaching 50 mph.  Even in relativel "calm" areas, like the Champlain Valley, winds will go to 40 mph or higher.

There will probably be a few power outages, especially in the eastern half of Vermont because of the wind.  The ground is quite saturated, so the wind will more easily push over shallow rooted trees.  Today is not a good day to install outdoor Christmas decorations. And for gawd's sake deflate those damn blow up decorations so they don't blow all over the place.

MONDAY: This will be a quiet, relatively calm day to get things done.  The sun will be out a good part of the time, and the wind will be much lighter than it is today. It'll be chilly, but nothing scary for mid-December with highs somewhere in the 20s.

TUESDAY:  A little bit of trouble for your Tuesday.  A mid-size storm will be passing by to our south, and that will throw some snow into Vermont.  This is subject to change, but as of Sunday, forecast trends have pushed the storm further south than first thought a couple of days ago.

If this trend holds, southern Vermont would get the most snow, with maybe six inches in some favored spot.  Northern Vermont could get as little as one to three inches. There still are uncertainties on how this storm will play out, so stay tuned for possible changes in the  snow forecasts. It could still go up or down.

Note that this same storm is likely to cause severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in the Deep South Monday. Plus, for those of you who are traveling, there's a lot of risk for a bunch of freezing rain from Oklahoma to southern New England as this storm travels cross-country.

It could get particularly nasty in southern New England, southern New York, Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey on Tuesday. It's probably a good idea to avoid those areas on Tuesday if you can.

WEDNESDAY: At least part of the day could prove to be, um, interesting here in Vermont. It'll start off quiet enough, but a sharp cold front will raise the risk of heavy, potentially dangerous snow squalls. Kind of like what we had last Thursday, but possibly even worse.

It's not definite that we'll get the snow squalls, but there's a lot of players coming together that could produce them.  If you're venturing out Wednesday, listen to forecasts first.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington and other Vermont meterologists are pretty damn good at timing these things out.

It's too soon now to say when or even if those snow squalls will develop, but pay attention to forecasts all day Wednesday.  That'll give you a sense when whiteouts and dangerous road conditions are most likely.

THURSDAY: Quiet and very cold for this time of year, though it won't be a record breaker. It looks like highs will only be in the teens to around 20 with lows a few degrees either side of zero. At least that's how it looks now.

FRIDAY: Still quiet and cold. A risk of a subzero morning, but temperatures should moderate a bit by afternoon.   It'll still be chilly, but highs in the 20s aren't all that bad.

Surprise White Christmas In And Around Vermont; Christmas Travel To Be Good. But....

At work at Gardener's Supply this Christmas Eve morning, looking
out the window past the amaryllis to the unexpected snow
globe outside

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. DECEMBER 24

Well, we have a botched weather forecast to report this afternoon, but at least it was off in a way that many people like.

I mentioned this morning there would be very little snowfall in Vermont this morning. And if it did snow, it would be mostly in the southern part of the state.

Then a Christmas miracle of sorts happened. The weak, wimpy storm that was supposed to cause the paltry few snowflakes in southern Vermont had more oomph than we thought.

Some energy in the atmosphere combined with a ribbon of moisture floating around northern New York and heading into Vermont contributed to the unexpected snow.

This isn't a blockbuster storm by any means, but now pretty nearly all parts of Vermont have a dusting to two inches of new snow on the ground. There might even be a couple spot three inch totals. Enough to get us a white, or at least whitish Christmas.

Which was, again, unexpected, but oh well.

The only drawback is that the roads are a bit iffy if you're traveling today around the state or running last minute errands. So just be careful on the highways and streets.

This little area of disturbed weather is zipping right along, so the snow should shut off pretty quickly this evening. It still looks like it's going to be a rather sunny, but seasonably chilly day on Christmas. It will certainly be cold enough for the snow to stick around.

This post's previous discussion is below, and includes the underestimation of how much snow Vermont would get today:

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:


 A large storm in the middle of the nation will cause widespread zones
of snow, ice, rain and wind by Thursday

A lot of people are traveling to and fro today and for the next few days for the Christmas holiday.

Locally in New England, it's pretty much smooth sailing until Thursday night, when a storm will begin to make things messy. 
A large storm will make things tricky at various times from coast to coast starting today.

The Christmas Eve action will begin today with a large area of rain and snow across the west and Rockies through Christmas Day. There will certainly be a white Christmas for most areas that are high enough in elevation to escape the rain.

This storm will really begin to blossom Wednesday, the day after Christmas, across the Plains.

Snow will spread across the north, an ugly wintry mix will hit some of the central Plains (think Iowa and Nebraska). Rain and thunderstorms will hit further south. Some severe storms are possible in Texas by Wednesday.

The storm will get strong, so winds will become an issue, too. As the storm lumbers northeastward toward the Great Lakes Thursday, snow, ice and wind will continue in the northern Plains, with a large area of rain across the Midwest.

All this will spread into the Northeast Friday. Northern New England faces some ice on Thursday night and early Friday before everything goes over to rain.

There won't be as much rain as in last Friday's storm, so any flooding that does happen will be less severe and much less widespread than it was over the weekend.

This upcoming cross-country storm is sure to create flight delays, so check with your airlines before you head to the airport if your departure or destination happens to be in the storm zone when you're flying.

Here in New England, some light snow will fall in central and southern parts of the region today, but it won't amount to much. Maybe an inch or two, with less than that the further north you go.

Christmas Day will feature a lot of sun with seasonably cold temperatures across New England. That gives us highs in the 20s north, near 30 central and in the 30s south. Wednesday and Thursday also look good before the ickiness arrives Thursday night across New England.

Warm Storm To Be An East Coast Powerhouse, Vermont Rain And Wind

The National Weather Servide in South Burlington has this
prediction for heavy rains with the upcoming storm. Green areas
should see at least an inch of rain. Yellow aeras will more
likely get 1.5 inches of rain or more. A few spots might
get two inches. Flood watches are in effect.

UPDATE 5:30 PM WEDNESDAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has gone ahead and issued a flood watch for the entire area. It runs from late Thursday night into Saturday afternoon.

That warm storm that's coming is destined to dump perhaps an inch of rain or more on us before a "dry slot" temporarily reduces rainfall rates. (See the discussion below about the dry slot.)

Temperatures will warm into the 50s in many locations Friday afternoon and night. (We might see a couple of record high temperatures out of this, we'll see.) The warmth could melt much of the snow cover in the hills and mountains which is unusually thick and heavy for this early in the season.

The result will be definite rises on all the rivers in and around Vermont. It's a little uncertain still how much snow will melt. But we could see the equivalent of two or three inches of rain come off the mountains in the form of melted snow, plus the inch or so of rain.

That could be enough to set off flooding.

This won't be a blockbuster flood. Don't expect Irene the Second. But any flooding needs to be taken seriously. If the road ahead of you is flooded, don't drive through. You don't know how deep the water is, and you don't know if the roadway washed away.

I don't anticipate a lot of evacuations due to flooding, but if they tell you to get out, then get out. Winter flooding is particularly dangerous because the water is so cold. And it's pretty much always night around the Winter Solstice, which means it's harder to see flood waters creeping up around you.

It still looks like some freezing rain will be in there at the start Thursday night. That's most likely in the Northeast Kingdom and the northern tip of New York. Roads might be icy late Thursday night and early Friday morning in those areas.

Get ready for gusty winds, too. A lot of us will see wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range with this storm, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. A few power failures might result

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

A lot of people are probably bummed that the storm coming in for Friday and Saturday around the Northeast will bring mostly rain, even to northern New England.

Jammed up ice on the Missisquoi River near Enosburg last January.
Although nothing this bad is expected with the upcoming warm
storm, expect some ice movement and rises in Vermont
rivers over the weekend. 

It's right before Christmas, and people expect snow, right?   

However, it's probably a good thing in the grand scheme of things that this storm doesn't have a lot of cold air to tap into. 

That would just make what will be a powerhouse of a storm much, much worse if there were cold air to clash with the storm's warm side. 

Storms tend to be stronger when there is a very deep, sharp dip in the jet stream. They're even stronger when the dip in the jet stream is tilted a bit, so it runs northwest to southeast, instead of straight north to south,  or northeast to southwest.

This storm will have those ingredients. Which means pretty much everybody from Florida to Quebec will see areas of strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms. In parts of the Southeast, some of the storms will probably be severe.

In fact, Florida in particular had better watch it. A lot of energy in the atmosphere is sinking south deep toward the Sunshine State. There's a real chance of some tornadoes there Thursday. Those twisters may extend up into far eastern North Carolina Thursday night. 

Even up here in Vermont, there's the possibility of a rumble of thunder during this, though there will certainly be no severe thunderstorms.

This storm will also create some odd temperature arrangements. High temperatures on Friday could well be just about the same in Tallahassee, Florida and Burlington, Vermont - in the 50s. 

Because of the orientation of that dip in the jet stream, the storm will zoom directly northward from around Georgia  late Thursday night to somewhere near Ottawa, Canada late Friday night. 

There are already flood watches up for parts of the already soggy Mid-Atlantic states.

Back to Vermont: We know it's going to rain and get windy and warm with this storm, but some of the particulars are still big question marks. Very often when a big storm gets wrapped up like this one looks like it will, it can create something called a dry slot. It's just a tongue of dry air that gets wrapped into the circulation of a storm from the southwest. 

This can shut off precipitation, or at least reduce it. But it can increase mixing in the air, which can lead to both strong wind gusts and, briefly, unexpectedly warm temperatures.  There is the risk of some downslope winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains on Friday. Some of the wind could be strong enough to knock down some trees, branches and power lines. 

If enough warm air mixes in, there's a chance temperatures in some valleys in western Vermont could approach 60 degrees.

Nobody is sure exactly where and when this dry slot will set up, hence the question marks. 

What with the expected rain, and snowmelt, rivers will rise and ice will move around, so there's the risk of some localized flooding. At this point it doesn't look like it will be anything extensive, but it will be something to keep an eye on nonetheless.

Behind the storm, cooler air will filter in Saturday and Sunday, but this won't be a big blast of Arctic air. 

Instead, daytime temperatures will fall to near normal readings in the mid 20s to low 30s Sunday through Christmas.  Although there might be some snow showers Saturday night and Sunday, they won't amount to much. Some areas of Vermont will not see any measurable snow, so many valley locations will not have a white Christmas, at least as it looks now 

A REALLY White Christmas Is Set For Vermont, Rest Of The Region

The National Weather Service in South Burlington,
Vermont is still forecasting a general four to eight inch
snowfall across Vermont on Christmas Day. A winter
storm warning is in effect. 

As of Sunday morning, it looks like the roads are getting cleaned up fairly well after the rain, freezing rain and snow of Saturday. That gets us a chance to do last minute stuff and travel before the next winter storm hits.

It's going to be a very, very white Christmas in Vermont. And this second half of December appears to be the opening weeks of what is increasingly looking like a harsh winter. We shall see.

It's certainly been somewhat harsh lately, with cold snaps and icy, snowy precipitation events coming fast and furiously for the past couple of weeks. And it's getting more harsh.

All that freezing rain, rain, followed by snow and rapidly falling temperatures late Saturday afternoon and evening caused lots of travel nightmares across much of Vermont. There were lots of slideoffs and accidents. Firetrucks couldn't even make it up a hill in Winooski to respond to problems.

OK, that's done. Now we're facing a Christmas Day winter storm warning for northeastern New York, northern Massachusetts and all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. (Upgraded from yesterday's winter storm watch.)

Expect widespread accumulations of four to 10 inches across this region, with locally more as you head off into northeastern Maine.

This is all caused by storm that has laid down a stripe of snow across the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley. The storm will come out of the Ohio Valley and start getting into New England early Christmas morning.

From there, a nor'easter will rapidly form on the New England coast and take over before zipping on up into the Canadian Maritimes toward Christmas evening.

The snow will start after midnight tonight, so driving around this evening will still be OK. Christmas morning, not so much. The snow will taper off in the afternoon, so things might not quite as bad on the roads toward Christmas evening. However, you'll also have to contend with some blowing and drifting snow as winds pick up.

There's still ice on the trees in many parts of eastern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, so the winds could knock down some more branches and power lines, but I don't think the problem will be too widespread. Luckily, the snow that comes with the Christmas storm will be light and powdery, so it will blow off tree branches rather than weigh them down further.

After this storm goes by the doors open for the long-advertised Arctic outbreak. It will get increasingly cold Tuesday, and be absolutely brutal Wednesday through Saturday a least. Look for highs barely getting to zero, if that, and lows in the teens below zero region wide. There will be some areas in the 20s below.

As noted yesterday, this cold will last awhile. It might moderate some, at least temporarily in about a week, but the overall pattern well into January favors colder than normal weather.   Yeah, as if we all love paying a billion dollars per second on our heating bills, right?

Whether this will be accompanied by any other substantial snowfalls is anybody's guess. On the one hand, the pattern well into January favors storm development along or off the Eastern Seaboard. On the other hand the Arctic air coming in from the north and west is so heavy and strong that it could easily keep any storms that do form well south and east of our region, so we would not get all that much snow.   We'll have to wait on that.

The lake effect snow machine will certainly go nuts for at least the next few days. Some areas of western New York, especially near and south of Watertown off of Lake Ontario, can expect three or four feet of lake effect snow, possibly locally even more than that, by Wednesday. Yikes!

Whether you like winter or not, we're going to get plenty of it. And whether or not you like winter, Merry Christmas!

Saturday Evening Storm Update: Stay Off Roads This Evening; New Storm To Sock Us Christmas Day

Here's an initial forecast for the amount of snow expected on
Christmas Day - this from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington. At this point, it looks like most of Vermont
is in for six or seven inches of snow on Christmas.

As of 4:30 p.m. Saturday, rain and freezing rain in the northern Champlain Valley of New York and Vermont had changed to snow, and this changeover was working its way steadily south and east and will encompass most of the state through this evening.

By the way, that light predicted Christmas snowfall I was talking about this morning ain't so light anymore. There's a winter storm watch out for the region on Christmas Day for what now appears will be a mid-sized storm. More on that in a bit.

First, let's get through what happened today and what's happening this evening. Gawd, it was an awful day weatherwise through northern New York, the northern two-thirds of New England and southern Ontario and Quebec.

There was lots of freezing rain for most or all of the day, especially in parts of northern New York, eastern and central Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and a good chunks of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

As expected, the Connecticut River Valley in Vermont was included in the zone that really got socked by the freezing rain. As of 5 p.m. Saturday, more than 5,000 homes and businesses were without power from just south of St. Johnsbury all the way down to the Brattleboro area.

Even in places that got a cold, but ostensibly non-freezing rain today, like the central and southern Champlain Valley of Vermont, the ground was chilly enough that even though the air temperature was something like 35 degrees, the rain froze on roads, sidewalks, parking lots and the like. It was nasty.

There were tons of car accidents and crashes, road closures and the like throughout the region,  As expected, enough freezing rain fell on parts of New Hampshire an Maine that there were some issues with tree branches and power lines failing under the weight of the accumulated ice.

If the freezing rain hasn't changed to snow yet where you are, it soon will. It won't amount to much in most locations - I suppose one to three inches will do it. But as temperatures drop below freezing, the falling snow combined with the water freezing, will make it bad for driving and walking this evening.

I noticed during the height of the rain this afternoon that there was a bit of street flooding in Burlington, Vermont due to snow-clogged drains. Those big puddles freezing up will be pretty interesting by Sunday morning.

If you need to travel in Vermont or through most of New England or eastern New York this weekend, you've got a narrow, safe window of opportunity tomorrow - Christmas Eve. The road crews will have been out by morning, and there will be little if any precipitation to speak of.

But now, let's get into the Christmas Day snow.

It looks like the storm on Christmas Day will be a little stronger and a little closer to the coast than many forecasters thought earlier. That means more snow.

This still won't be a blockbuster, but there is enough expected snow to prompt winter storm watches for wide areas of the Northeast, including much of New England away from the coast of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Ice accumulates on tree branches in Lowell, Massachusetts
on Saturday. Photo via television station WCVB

Here in Vermont and surrounding areas, look for a general four to eight inch snowfall - the least to the northwest and the most to the south and east and higher elevations. The snow will begin in earnest in the wee hours of the morning Christmas and continue for most if not all of the day.

This still looks like a well-behaved storm with no sleet or freezing rain in inland areas like Vermont, interior New Hampshire and western Maine. Still, the roads will be slick all day so watch out for that.

Vermont ski areas must be rejoicing. They got some good dumps of snow, then some rain and freezing rain to help establish bases today, then more powder tonight and Christmas.

Here's the only drawback for skiers, and the rest of us. It's going to be frickin' COLD during the middle and end of next week. We're talking highs barely making it above zero and lows in the teens below zero, with some isolated cold spots.

Unlike the cold waves of the past couple of winters that only lasted a day or two, this one starts Tuesday and goes at least into next weekend.

Computer models are also hinting at some sort of nor'easter with maybe, just maybe, the potential of some decent snows somewhere in the Northeast or Middle Atlantic States. It's way too soon to pin down who, if anyone will get the bulk of the snow out of that potential storm.  Don't pay serious attention to forecasts that offer specifics of this potential storm until at least Thursday.

Anyone who tells you they know precisely where and how much heavy snow will fall next weekend is, um, snowing you.

Complicated, Messy Christmas Weekend Weather On Our Doorstep

Here's what the National Weather Service in South
Burlington, Vermont is thinking for snow accumulation
Friday. The most will fall in southern Vermont. Click on
the image to make it bigger and easier to see. 

If you want a day to travel or finish your errands here in Vermont before Christmas today's your day.

Sure, it's kinda chilly out, but there will be a fair amount of sun. Roads are pretty clear. The only
chance of precipitation is maybe, just maybe a flurry over the mountains or near Lake Champlain.

Then it's a mess for days. At least I think so. Christmas Day remains a HUGE iffy wild card. More on that in a minute.

Let's get through the first wave of storminess first. This first wave, due Friday and early Friday night here in the North Country will almost exclusively come in the form of snow. It's a repeat of this past Monday, except more snow will come down in most places than on Monday.

Expect a general three to seven inches of new snow. The most will come down in south central Vermont, especially in the mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. The least amount will hit near the border with Canada.

It's all enough to prompt a winter weather advisory for Friday. The morning commute might be tricky in southern Vermont. It'll be a slow mess region wide Friday evening, so get ready for that.

That's round one, which will peter off to scattered freezing drizzle late Friday night.

Round two comes Saturday, and that one will be a real mess. Before I get into it, do understand that temperatures will be pretty marginal on Saturday - right near the freezing mark - so things will probably not work out exactly as forecast then. But it's enough in the general sense to be prepared for some rough travel, and some extremely icy conditions in some areas.

As it stands now, mixed precipitation will probably change to a cold rain over western Vermont and  most of eastern New York during the day Saturday. Messy, and an icy morning, but perhaps not the end of the world.

I'm definitely worried about the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, the eastern half of Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom and a large chunk of central New Hampshire. In these areas, precipitation has a really good chance of staying in the form of freezing rain and sleet.

Here's one computer model's take on the freezing rain
potential Saturdau. The deepest pinks are where
the thickest accumulation of ice is expected -
a quarter inch or more. 

That's because cold high pressure is going to keep feeding low level cold air down from the north into this region. Meanwhile, a surge of very warm air will ride up and over this cold low level air. A perfect recipe for freezing rain, even an ice storm.

It's possible that ice could accumulate to a thickness of a quarter to a half inch in a few places in the colder areas I just outlined. Not only is that enough to make the roads dangerous, it's also beginning to get into the territory where the weight of ice could bring down trees and power lines.

On the bright side, one storm on Saturday will come up into New York State and weaken, while a second storm forms along the New England Coast. Neither will really fully get their acts together, so precipitation won't be quite as heavy as it otherwise could have been.

Still, I'm certain new winter weather advisories or other winter weather alerts will go up for the region on Saturday. They haven't yet only because the National Weather Service doesn't want to confuse people because they already have advisories up for Friday's snow.

Back here in Vermont, the cold rain will likely change back to snow Saturday night, then taper off, but not before accumulating at least some. Plus all the water will freeze back up, and the ice from the storm will stay put.

Definitely dangerous underfoot for walking beginning Saturday and lasting into the foreseeable future.

On Sunday, it looks like we'll be between systems, so that might be the time to sneak off to your destination. It won't be perfect. I imagine there might be sone snow showers around, plus we're all have that remaining ice on the ground to deal with.

Then we get to Christmas Day, and there's still a huge number of question marks surrounding the potential for maybe, just maybe a substantial snowstorm. The American computer models don't develop much of anything, and push whatever forms well south and east on Vermont. Translation: The American models aren't forecasting any major snows for Vermont on Christmas Day.

The European Model, however, brings a nor'easter along the New England coast and dumps a lot of Christmas Day snow on Vermont. However, the European model did trend a bit east this morning, which would cut back on the snow here in the Green Mountain State. We'll see if that eastward bump is a trend, or just a blip.

The bottom line is it's still anyone's guess as to what will happen with the weather on Christmas Day.

Elsewhere in the nation, bitter cold air is surging into the northern Plains and will gradually spread south and east. Parts of North Dakota and Minnesota won't get above zero from Sunday evening to at least Wednesday.

That cold air will arrive here in Vermont starting next Tuesday, which means a round of subzero nights for us next week.

In southern California, unbelievably, the fire risk continues amid strangely dry conditions. The highest threats are today and Sunday, when winds are forecast to be strongest.

Quick Update: What To Expect With Vermont Weather Leading To Christmas

It's possible some areas aroud the region could be icy like
this on Saturday. Stay tuned to forecasts and travel alerts. 

This is pretty much an update of yesterday's post, as everybody is keenly interested in what kind of weather we'll have to deal with here in Vermont leading up to and through Christmas. There's a few changes, and I'm sure a few more changes are in the offing.  

And once we get to Christmas Day, the uncertainty of what will happen is way above average.

The details, with notes on how confident I am in the forecast each day:

REST OF TODAY: Partly cloudy, breezy, turning colder. Some snow showers around, mainly in the mountains and mainly before mid afternoon. Some icy patches on the roads as temperatures drop and water freezes. Forecaster confidence: High

THURSDAY: Quiet and cold. Some increase in afternoon clouds. A north breeze will slacken to near calm. Forecaster confidence: High.

FRIDAY: Basically a repeat of Monday. Light snow will overspread the area. We're looking at a general one to three inch snowfall, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Both the morning and afternoon commutes will be affected by slippery roads. Forecaster confidence: Moderately high.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Snow gradually mixes with sleet and freezing rain, especially late at night. Forecaster confidence: Moderate.

SATURDAY: Forecast models are trending the storm further east and locking in the cold air more aggressively than they did a few days ago. The storm will probably still go by just to the west of Vermont. Look for a messy day with snow, ice, and rain. Freezing rain will last the longest east of the Green Mountains, and might not change to plain rain at all in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and possibly parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

It still looks like there will be a period of plain rain, especially in western Vermont and much of eastern New York. This could change, though, if the storm keeps trending further east. At least it looks like not all the snow on the ground will melt. Earlier forecasts suggested it would. Earlier in the week, I thought it might be 50 degrees or more on Saturday. Now it looks like it'll be in the 30s to near 40.  Forecaster confidence: Low to moderate.

SUNDAY (Christmas Eve) Looks like we'll be between systems, though that's not certain. It will be colder than Saturday, so any precipitation that does come down will very likely be snow. At this point, it just looks like scattered snow showers during the day. Forecaster confidence: Fairly low

MONDAY: (Christmas Day) Huge amounts of uncertainty here. Forecast models are all over the place with storminess in the Northeast. Some forecast models give us a decent day long Christmas snowfall, a few other models give us an ugly mix of precipitation, and still others take the storm too far to the south  and east to affect Vermonte at all.  Some real big question marks here. Stay tuned on this one. Forecaster confidence: Very low. 

AFTER CHRISTMAS: A nasty surge of Arctic air will have gotten into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes by Christmas weekend. Looks like that cold air will come in from Tuesday onward net week. I'm not sure how cold it will get, but it will certainly be colder than normal, with subzero temperatures a good bet. Forecaster confidence: Moderate.

Heads Ups: Could Be Messy Travel Heading Into Next Christmas Weekend

I don't know if Christmas weekend travel will be as dicey as
in this photo, but there is a definitely potential for wintry storms
in Vermont and surrounding areas Friday through Christmas Day.

Christmas is a week from Monday already, and it's time to start traveling to visit friends and relatives. My husband flew off to South Dakota this morning. Luckily, there's no major weather issues in his flight path, so that's good.

Many of the rest of us won't be so lucky. It's looking rather stormy, especially in the eastern part of the country, as we head toward next weekend.

I'll mainly focus on here in Vermont and surrounding areas, at least at first. Expect some pretty big swings in temperatures and weather conditions all week as you finish your Christmas shopping and get set to travel.

It was certainly cold as heck this Sunday morning, as temperatures across most of the region dropped below zero again - the second time in a week that's happened.

It'll be a little better this afternoon - teens to around 20 - before other big changes come. It'll continue warming up Monday. That'll come with a price. It always does. There will be some snow showers around, maybe even some freezing drizzle as we keep warming well into the 20s.

Tuesday brings a brief thaw, with temperatures around 40, with showers. And some wet snow in the mountains. So it'll get sloppy and slushy.

Then another cold front comes through by Wednesday morning. It'll get pretty cold again, and Tuesday's slush will turn into sheets of ice. And crusty snow. Watch out under foot. It'll be slip and slide weather for you pedestrians Wednesday and Thursday. Roads could be kinda slippery Wednesday morning, too.

From there, big changes come again. Another storm system is expected to arrive Friday and Saturday. At this point, it looks like a warm one, at least around here. That probably means snow to icy precipitation to rain and back to snow at the end. This storm is nearly a week away, so it's hard to tell exactly what it's going to do. Stay tuned for updates, but what I've described looks like the scenario at this point.

Along the East Coast, it looks like there will be rain, with a fair amount of snow in the Great Lakes region. This storm should be over for almost everyone by Saturday afternoon and evening. However, some indications are that another storm could spread coastal rain and inland snow across the Northeast on Christmas Day.

There's even a chance it could be a fairly substantial snow. But looking at things eight days in advance, it's very hard to tell if that scenario will play out or not.  Could be a bust. Don't count on that storm yet, for sure. We'll see how it turns out.

It also looks like a very strong cold snap will begin to invade the Northern Plains and Great Lakes next weekend, and intensify on Christmas a few days thereafter. That very cold air will probably reach the Northeast after that maybe storm on Christmas. It's definitely looking like a very active weather pattern through the end of the year, and possibly into the beginning of 2018.

Big Chrismas Storm To Blast Much Of Nation With Everything

A National Weather Service forecast map
shows the expected powerful Christmas storm
over the Northern Plains. 

The Christmas holday is going to bring a big blast of storminess this year to much of the nation.

The weather will include blizzards, ice, rain, floods, lots of wind and even the possibility of a tornado or two, depending upon where you live.  

This is going to be another one of those cross- country storms that we've seen this month, the type that brings a variety of mostly bad weather coast to coast. starting with California and ending with the Northeast.

The difference this time is the upcoming storm is going to be stronger than the other ones we've had this month.

There are some benefits to this storm, though not many if you're planning to travel. The storm is going to sock California with quite a bit of rain and snow, which will put another dent into their severe drought.

It has been relatively wet in California this month, but not super wet. I guess it's better than nothing.

Rain will arrive there Friday, with snow in the Sierra Nevada and other high elevations. This won't be the world's most epic storm there, so only a little flooding is expected in the lowlands.

The mountains could get one to two feet of snow out of this, which is good for California.

The storm will begin to consolidate itself over the Rocky Mountains Saturday, dumping a decent amount of snow on many of the Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Montana ski resorts.

The storm will emerge into the western Plains somewhere near northeastern Colorado and quickly blow up into a powerful storm as it heads across South Dakota into northern Minnesota Sunday and Monday.

Blizzard watches are already up for Sunday into Monday in much of North Dakota and the western half of South Dakota.

Heavy snow could fall, and with winds gusting to maybe to as much as 55 mph, expect whiteouts in that neck of the woods if the forecast plays out as expected.

Near the storm track, freezing rain and sleet is a good bet for parts of central South Dakota into Minnesota.  

National Weather Service forecast map shows precipitation
falling across most of the nation, Most of this is associated
with a large storm expected to cross the United States
during Chrsitmas weekend. Purplse shades are the heaviest
precipitation, moderate is blue, green is light.  

Exactly where the ice sets up in that region is still open to question, so just wait for further forecasts if you're in places, or traveling through places like Sioux Falls, South Dakota or near or just north of Minneapolis.

Further south, the storm will bring up some very warm, humid and unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to a few severe Christmas Day thunderstorms in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

In the East, Christmas Day weather will be quiet, as the storm will still be well to the west.

Most areas of the East will eventually get some rain out of this, but not any incredible amounts.

Across upstate New York and northern New England, the warm front associated with the storm might bring some mixed precipitation to that region later Sunday night and Monday, so think about that if you're going to be traveling up that way during the start of Christmas week

It'll probably get windy in the Northeast Monday and Tuesday as the storm trudges by to the north and drags a cold front through the region.

Unpredented Christmas Heat Ending, Dangerous Storms Continue

A flower bloomed in Christmas Day in a West Rutland,
Vermont garden. This garden usually covered in snow
and temperatues are normally well below
freezing this time of year. 

Well, that was quite a Christmas holiday for weather geeks, wasn't it?

Many dozens of cities set record high temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas, and  few places even set records for the highest temperatures recorded for the entire month of December.

The downside of this were the tragic and/or dangerous storms that started in earnest on December 23 and continue now, and will continue through the weekend.

At least 15 people were killed in tornadoes Wednesday across the South.  Flooding got destructive in Alabama and Georgia Christmas Day, and will get really nasty in places like Oklahoma and Arkansas today and this weekend.

Meanwhile, a blizzard is churning through New Mexico and Texas, and ugly winter weather is forecast over the coming days from the Plains States to New England.  It seems like most of the country is under some sort of weather alert or warning.

The details, starting with the Christmas heat:

HOT CHRISTMAS INDEED

According to NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information, 515 United States reporting stations reported record highs in the past seven days. That's a big number for sure.

Here where I live in Vermont, we were an epicenter of sorts for at least the Christmas Eve heat, with all kinds of record highs being set statewide.

Burlington, Vermont  set an all time record high for the month at 68 degrees, so far the major reporting station I could find that set a all time monthly record.

New York City tabloids reacted to the
Christmas heat. Record highs of 72
degrees were recorded in Central Park. 

That record is especially impressive as in the rare case of a new record high for December, you'd think it would come early in the month, since that's the warmest part of December anyway.

That 68 degrees exceeded the previous record high by an astonishing 17 degrees.  It was also just six degrees cooler than the high temperature this past Fourth of July. (Normally, there's about a 50 degree difference between high temperatures in Burlington on July 4 and December 25.)

Down in Rutland, Vermont the Christmas Eve high temperature was 70 degrees.

Atop Mount Mansfield, at just over 4,000 feet in elevation, they experienced a record high of 51 degrees, and it was the first Christmas Eve on record at this mountaintop without any snow on the ground.

In my travels around Vermont on Christmas Eve, I was treated to a surreal December landscape that looked more like April, with meadows and hay fields greening up nicely, and a few flowers in some gardens. People played softball on baseball diamonds, and many families had outdoor Christmas Eve barbecues.  

The temperature in Vermont "cooled" to the 50s on Christmas Day, still some 20 degrees warmer than average. Temperatures in Burlington this December - complete with 10 days reaching highs of 50 or more - are normal for central Virginia.

The only winter heat waves I can think of that were as extreme as this one, was one in January 1995, when Burlington topped out at 66 degrees and had an overnight low of 59 one day. The other was one that stradled winter and spring in the middle of March, 2012, when temperatures reached the 70s and low 80s daily for a week.

The record heat continued in much of the East Christmas Day, and will continue in the Southeast today.

But it all came with a price.

SEVERE STORMS ALL OVER THE PLACE

One of the main ingredient for very rough, stormy weather is a sharp temperature contrast, and we've had that in the United States for the past few days. The East has had that record heat. The western half of the nation is cold.

Just typical cold for late December, mind you, but cold nonetheless. Contrast that with summer like heat in the East, and you get a battleground of sorts with tons of storminess. It's not helping that the eastern warmth is only grudgingly giving ground, so the severe weather between the warmth and the cold in the middle of the country is lingering on and on.

The National Weather Service home page
map is covered with a wide variety of
weather warnings and alerts Saturday. 

It started Tuesday, and won't stop until at least Monday..

Plus there's incredible amounts of warmth and moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico, and that is helping lead to incredible amounts of precipitation.

The rough weather is coming in many forms:

Tornadoes:

As mentioned,  at least 15 people died in twisters Wednesday.  This tragedy means that 2015 will not go down as the least deadly tornado year on record in the United States. Until Wednesday, only ten people had died in tornadoes all year.

But now that death toll is over 20. The least annual number of tornadoe deaths in the United States was 12 in 1912, says Dr. Jeff Masters in his Weather Underground blog.

A Christmas tornado near Birmingham, Alabama damaged or destroyed several homes. Severe flooding (more on that in a minute) hampered rescue efforts.

More severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes could occur today over the weekend, and possibly into Monday near the Gulf Coast. The severe weather will be concentrated today over Texas, especially in a corridor between Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth.  Sunday, the risk moves to over eastern Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas, and along the central Gulf Coast Monday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Flooding: 

There was quite a bit of flooding in Alabama and Georgia over the Christmas holiday, with Alabama's governor declaring a state of emergency there.

Heavy rain will continue over those two states over the next couple of days, but the flood focus is really shifting to places like eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas today and tomorrow.

The same storm that's causing the tornado threat in Texas and the Gulf Coast is drawing in enormous amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast shield of heavy precipitation from this is enormous, with flood watches in a broad stretch from Texas to Ohio and along the southern and central Appalachians.

National Weather Service office in Birmingham,
Alabama tweeted this photo of a Christmas Day
tornado near Tuscaloosa. 

The bullseye for the heaviest rain goes from  northeast Texas into southern Illinois, where four to as much as 12 inches of rain are forecast.

 Much of this area has already been very, very wet in recent weeks and months, so this flooding could turn out to be huge.

The National Weather Service office in Tulsa is warning of a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation along several rivers in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Winter Storms:

The National Weather Service in Alburquerque, New Mexico is warning of a record setting blizzard or the rest of the weekend, especially in the eastern part of that state.

An incredible 15 to 20 inches of snow is forecast, which is pretty rare for dry eastern New Mexico, and drifts could reach five feet deep.

Winds during the blizzard could gust to 65 mph. The weather service is understandably warning people not to drive at all during this storm.

The Texas Panhandle is going to get it just as bad, with drifts as high as ten feet amid heavy snow and winds to 60 mph.

A separate area of heavy snow is falling from eastern Colorado, northern Nebraska, much of South Dakota and on into southwestern Minnesota. Winter storm warnings are up in that region today.

Northern New England is in for a rude awakening after the record heat of the past few days. Winter warnings and advisories are up for tonight and tomorrow for parts of northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine for a mix of wet snow, sleet and freezing rain later tonight and Sunday.

Another storm on Tuesday is expected to bring more snow and mixed precipitation to much of New England. So much for the green grass and unseasonable flowers.

Things will finally, finally settled down in the nation somewhat as we head toward the New Year, as temperatures in most places will become more seasonable and we will get a least a temporary break from intense storms.

For pretty much the whole nation among weather watchers, though, this will be the ultimate December to remember.

Deadly Tornadoes Unleash Pre-Christmas Havoc, More Rough Weather Coming

An emormous tornado Wednesday in Holly Springs, Mississippi.
Photo by James Overton @musicmanjim on Twitter.

I was afraid yesterday's tornadoes would lead to tragedy, and unfortunately, I was right.

At least seven people were killed and 40 injured in the yesterday's severe storms and tornadoes, which include a violent and long tracked tornado across northern Mississippi.

Among the people that tornado killed was a seven year old boy in Holly Spring, Mississippi.

There were reports of 27 tornadoes in all Wednesday, though some of those reports are probably duplicates, or multiple sightings of the same tornado.

There often seems to be Christmas week tornadoes in the South. Deadly tornadoes struck just before Christmas last year, killing nine people. There were also deadly Christmastime tornadoes in 2012, 2010, 2007, 2000, among other years.

This particular stretch of dangerous weather is not over, not by a long shot. Tornado warnings were up before dawn in parts of Georgia before dawn.

While most of the tornadoes were concentrated in the South, one touched down in Canton, Michigan, which is incredibly far north for a winter tornado. The National Weather Service in Detroit said the Canton tornado is the first time in the record books that a tornado touched down during December in Michigan.

Though tornadoes will not be nearly as widespread or as devastating today as they were Wednesday, there's still a risk of twisters in the Southeast today.

We'll add flooding to the mix, too, along with a continued threat of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the South through the weekend.

A new, strong storm will develop in Texas over the next couple of days, spinning off more possible tornadoes from Texas and across the Gulf Coast through Sunday. This new storm, coming on the heels of the wet one now ongoing, raises the risk of floods.

Basically, several rounds of very heavy rain started yesterday from Louisiana to Illinois to Georgia and those areas will keep getting hit as that new storm I talked about ramps up. Some creeks in Georgia were already flooding early this morning and that will only get worse.

Over the next seven days, an area from northeast Texas, through Arkansas, southern Missouri and southern Illinois can expect five to 10 inches of rain falling on already soggy ground. You'll hear about flooding in the news for sure.

Tornado damage in Mississppi 

The year is certainly ending with a familiar pattern. 2015 has been the Year Of The Flood. There have been so many extreme floods in the United States and the rest of the world in 2015. We're ending the year with maybe another one.

Record heat is still going on and will peak today east of the storminess.

Burlington, Vermont set a record high for the date of 52 degrees by 5 a.m.. Temperatures there were expected to rise into the 60s there by this afternoon.

Temperatures in the 70s will be common today from southern New England all the way down to the mid-Atlantic states. South of that, temperatures will reach the 80s in many spots. Many dozens of records will fall.

The record, bizarre heat will go on, but slowly get suppressed to the south and east over the next week as the series of storms continue to slowly drive a cold front east.

It's part of a pattern change that's developing that will finally bring the nation into winter. On the north and west side of that Texas storm, a blizzard packing winds of up to 60 mph is likely to develop in that state's panhandle by Sunday'and spread into the central Plains.

It's already below zero and highs are expected to reach only the upper single digits to low teens in North Dakota. Not at all unusual for them, but it's a sign that winter is trying to reassert itself.

In New England, people are in for a shock. In Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine Monday, highs will only reach the 20s. Again, perfectly normal for this time of year, but something we're definitely not used to.

On Tuesday, New England is for a horrible mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.

Still,  December, 2015 will no doubt be the hottest on record for many places all across the eastern United States.

Here in Vermont, the warmest December on record at Burlington had a mean temperture of 32.6. So far, this December is averaging 40.4. It would have to turn awfully cold at the end of the month to prevent the monthly record from being shattered. And it's not going to get all that cold.

So, brace yourself for more extreme weather coast to coast for the next few days before things settle into a more typical winter pattern.

Here's one of Wednesday's tornadoes crossing Interstate 55 near Como, Mississippi. Very scary for the people caught in traffic, and you can see a vehicle get tossed into the median by the tornado. Awful:

Weird December Severe Weather Outbreak And Heat Peaks Today in U.S.

A huge are of the nation (in dark green, yellow, orange and red) are
at risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today.
The are in red is at the greatest risk.

Across most of the eastern United States today, the day before the day before Christmas dawned foggy, wet, and incredibly warm.

The air in many spots feels muggy. Like tornado weather. And tornado weather we'll get for much of the Midwest and South today.

Yes, this morning has all the hallmarks of a late April stormy, warm, humid spring day.  Never mind that it's late December. I can't get over how odd this is.

Before dawn, there was already a tornado watch up for parts of Texas, Louisian and Arkansas and pretty impressive thunderstorms were already firing up.

It'll get worse as we go through the day. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting this is going to be an apocalyptic tornado day with zillions of bad tornados and storms, like the epic super outbreak of April 25-28, 2011 (that one contained 355 tornadoes that killed 321 people)

Today won't be anything like that. Still, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says "mulitple tornadic supercells" are possible in and near the Tennessee Valley.

Places like Memphis, Tennessee and Jackson, Mississippi are under a moderate risk of severe storms and tornadoes today, according to the Storm Prediction Center. That's the second highest alert level possible, and that high level of concern is fairly rare for December.

People across much of the nation, from Michigan to Alabama and from North Carolina to Arkansas will want to keep an eye to the muggy skies as they rush to complete their Christmas shopping.

It's true that the nation often has an outbreak of severe weather in December, but I don't remember the last time I saw a severe weather threat area in December being so large, and extending so far north.

There's at least a minimal chance of severe thunderstorms all the way to the Canadian border in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The area of enhance risk, where severe storms and tornadoes are most likely later today, is in itself huge.

It extends from Louisiana, through the Tennesse Valley all the way north to southwestern Ohio. This is the kind of thing you see in the peak of severe weather season, in April or May, not December.

The weather experts were saying all along the intense El Nino would energize storms crossing the United States, raising the possibility of wintertime severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreaks.

Your proof is there today.

In fact, in another unusual thing for December, the severe weather threat will continue in various parts of the south daily at least through Sunday. It's very rare to have several days in a row of severe thunderstorms in December.

Even though the heat is on, parts of the country that have been mild will turn more wintry, i.e normal in the upcoming days.

A quick shot of cold air in the Northeast, especially northern New England, will keep daytime temperatures in the 20s come Monday.

That's very normal for this time of year but it's been such an incredibly abnormal December.  At this point, December in Burlington is running an astonishing seven degrees warmer than the hottest December on record. If it doesn't get too cool at the very end of the month, this could be quite a record.

In Burlington, Vermont, there has not been a subfreezing high temperature yet so far this fall and winter. Normally, we would have had many such days by now.

Last year by this date, Burlington had already had 13 days with high temperatures at or below freezing, which is far more typical than this year.

This sure is a contrast to this past February, which was among the coldest on record. It's possible some New England communities will have their coldest winter month on record (February) and their warmest winter month on record (December) in the same year  -- 2015.

In the Plains, winter is set to make a return, too. It looks like there's a good chance of a big snowstorm from Colorado into the upper Midwest.

The northern panhandle of Texas is looking at possible blizzard conditions over this upcoming weekend, and those blizzard conditions look to extend north into western Oklahoma and Kansas.

So yes, if you want spring to wait until, um spring, after this week, it'll be back to winter for much of the nation. A lot of us don't like the cold, but this warmth and severe weather is also too freaky for a lot of us.

Eastern Winter Arrives Briefly, But Get Ready For Christmas "Blowtorch"

Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman, posted
these contrasting images of the same
Buffalo neighborhood this snow-less year (top)
and after epic lake effect snows a year ago.

I woke up to winter today at my hacienda in St. Albans, at the northwestern corner of Vermont.

My place got about an inch and a half of snow yesterday and last night, and it was down around 20 degrees at dawn.  

That's nothing unusual for the middle of December, but it is odd for a December that could set all kinds of records for heat in Vermont and much of the United States and Canada.

IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW

First we'll review this current shot of mini-winter. A good chunk of the snow in New England yesterday and last night can be tied to the Great Lakes.

Lake effect snows fired up, as expected Frday and Saturday, Buffalo got a light coating of snow Friday night, making December 18 the latest first snow in that city's records, which go back to the late 1800s.

The old record for Buffalo's latest first snow was December 3, 1899.

The places that got caught in the heaviest Great Lakes snowbands really got it. Lyonsville, New York picked up 36 inches of snow, and many places in western New York picked up more than a foot.

The impressive thing about these snowbands was how far inland from the lakes they got. Usually, they just go inland a few dozen miles at most.

At last, it looked wintry, at least briefly, in
my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning. 

Saturday's snowbands were enhanced by strong upper level winds, and a disturbance in the atmosphere -basically a weak cold front.

This weak cold front would have produced a little snow on its own, but it drew the lake effect snows into its sphere of influence and enhanced the snow in New England.

The snow band off of Lake Erie ended up going north of Albany, New York through southern Vermont and into New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

By the time the snow band got that far away from Lake Erie, the snow became very light, but still.

Another broken snow band extended a good 400 miles from Lake Huron, across Ontario, northern New York and into far northern Vermont and New Hampshire.  Sutton, Vermont reported a hefty 8.9 inches of snow from this, and Holland, Vermont got 6.5 inches. Much more than forecast, let me tell you.

Burlington, Vermont got into the act, getting its first "real" snow of the season with 1.8 inches. (0.2 inches fell one day in November, but that was a trifle.

"BLOWTORCH" HEAT WAVE COMING 

Late last week, the National Weather Service at Burlington, in northwestern Vermont, said December, 2015  temperatures there had so far been just about normal -- for Roanoke, Virginia, which is about 730 miles south of Burlington.

Temperatures in Burlington had been continuously above freezing for 10 days straight, ending on Saturday. Though today is seasonably chilly in the Northeast, the heat is going to come back on full blast, so Burington may end the month as if everyone there had been relocated to Roanoke.

Don't worry about the "blowtorch" moniker you've been hearing about this upcoming record warm spell. It's not going to be 1,500 degrees and everything won't burn to a crisp.

High confidence of "blowtorch" near
record warmth in the East on or just
before Christmas.

The "blowtorch" refers to forecast temperature maps for around Christmas Eve, which had lots of hot reds on them in eastern North American depicted how readings will be far, far, far above normal Christmas week.

Many record highs will very likely fall from the Gulf Coast to New England, and in Ontario and Quebec, Canada.

The anticipated heat could even break a few records for hottest readings on record for the entire month of December, which would really be impressive since those monthly readings on the rare occasions the do occur, most often happen at the beginning of the month.

A cold front of Pacific origin will probably cool things off a bit on Christmas Day, but it will still be very mild across the East.

Another surge of very warm air is expected in the days after Christmas, but that will likely focus over a smaller area of the East. The Midwest will probably be cooler than the pre-Christmas heat.

All this warmth comes at a price beyond a lack of snow for skiing in the East.

This is a very stormy pattern, with strong systems barging into the West Coast from the Pacific,  raising the risk of flooding in parts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. The storms would carve out deep dips in the jet stream in the Rockies for lots more snowstorms there. (Four feet in Steamboat Springs, Colorado already over the last week or two!)

These storms will emerge into the Plains, giving snowstorms and possible blizzards to the western and northern Plains, and severe weather and flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and southeastern United States.

It's still hard to tease out when and how exactly these areas will get hit but expect bouts of rough weather there now through New Year's Eve.  It's already apparent a large area of eastern Texas, Louisiana and much of the rest of the Gulf Coast could get some scattered severe storms Tuesday.

The bottom line: In general, expect a mild and wild Christmas week.