Fay Was A Bust; Back To Praying For Random Showers

"The Wrath Of Fay" Skies over St. Albans, Vermont around 6:30 this
morning as the center of what was Fay was probably entering
southwest Vermont. As you can tell, the storm was a bust
for Vermont.  By the way wind gusts at the time this
photo was taken were "roaring" in the um, 10-15 mph range.

As you can tell by going outside, Tropical Storm Fay was a bust in Vermont, dropping only a little rain and not the nice soaking downpours we'd hoped for.

Fay's main rain band went further west than expected, into central New York, and weakened even more rapidly than originally thought as it trekked up New York's Hudson River Valley.  Dry air also got sucked into the system from the west, cutting down on the rainfall.

By the time it reached Albany, Fay was just a diffuse remnant low, spewing out a few lame northbound showers in Vermont.

This band of rain at least is affecting pretty much all of Vermont with briefly moderate rains in some spots. It won't be huge, but we'll take any raindrop we can get at this point. .

On with the drought, I guess.

Sure, there are more rain chances, but we're back to the routine we've since May: Just hoping random showers might hit your own garden.  At least we won't go days on end without at least getting some risk of rain, so there's that. And it's a little cooler.

Yesterday in Burlington was the fifth day this year of 95 degree or warmer weather. The record for an entire year is nine.  We've also had 12 days of 90 degree or hotter weather. We're still quite a ways from the record of 26 in a single year, which is good.

It also looks like more 90 degree weather is unlikely for several days at least. We'll deal with lot of warmth and humidity and that sort of ickiness, but nothing extreme.

There will be severa chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, so I'm thinking almost everyone will get a little rain over the next week or so.

Now that Fay went pffft, we're left with a humid, tropical air mass.  That disturbance coming in from the west I've been talking about over the past couple of days is still moving into the picture today, so more showers and scattered thunderstorms will blossom this afternoon and evening.

A few lucky people will get some good downpours with these today.  A very few unlucky people are at risk for a severe storm.  A couple of them could produce microbursts, which would bring local damaging winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, the lowest of five risk levels.

More of the same is due all week, though some days will be drier than others. Some days will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms, other days, not so much. It all depends on the timing of these little summertime weather disturbances coming at us in this generally warm, humid west to southwest air flow over us.

Tropical Storm Fay did manage to cause a little trouble in some of the Mid-Atlantic States.  It made landfall a little north of Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday with its packet of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Several towns in and around New Jersey reported flooding problems.  Gusty coastal winds brought down some trees and power lines.  This was certainly no mega disaster, but it was an inconvenience.

Fay was also the earliest "F" storm on record.

Tropical Storm Fay Is Vermont's Friend

Vermont is rarely hit by any kind of tropical system.

Visible satellite photo showing Tropical Storm Fay
moving northward just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

But when the Green Mountain State is hit by a tropical storm or depression or hurricane, it's pretty much always had news.

In the topsy-turvy year of 2020, though, Tropical Storm Fay, on balance, looks like it will help Vermont much more than it will hurt.

Since Fay is a tropical storm, which are always very wet and windy, the storm will be bad news for some people, though.

WHERE IT'S AT AND GOING

As of 8 a.m this morning, Tropical Storm Fay had top winds of 50 mph, mostly east of its center.It was about 100 miles or so south of the southern tip of New Jersey.

Tropical Storm Fay was northbound as of early this morning, and will continue in that direction as it picks up forward speed. It'll scrape past New Jersey, possibly even making landfall there.  If not, it will come ashore not far from New York City tonight

At this point, forecasts take Tropical Storm Fay up the Hudson River Valley into either eastern New York or western Vermont.  The official 5 a.m. Friday National Hurricane Center forecast track had Fay pretty much sitting right over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 2 p.m. Saturday. It will then head into Quebec.

I'm delighted this could happen. So are my gardens.  We welcome the prospect of a potential soaking.

Of course, by the time, Fay hits Vermont or nearby, it will have been downgraded to a tropical depression and it will be starting to transition to a non-tropical system.

If Fay is still at tropical storm strength by the time it hits Vermont, it will only be the fourth tropical storm known to have its center pass over somewhere in the Green Mountain State.

Two of those past tropical systems were devastating and deadly. Tropical Storm Irene killed at least six Vermonters and pretty much tied with 1927 as creating the worst flood in the state's history.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 also passed through Vermont, causing serious flooding and leveling tracts of forests with its winds. The 1938 storm decimated the maple sugar industry for years afterward.

FAY IS NOT MEAN LIKE THE OTHERS

Fay's effects will be far, far, less serious in Vermont than Irene or the 1938 storm.

Here's why:

1. It's weak, so doesn't have the power to unleash widespread torrential rains or damaging winds.  Wind gusts for almost all of us should stay below 35 mph. A few favored areas, perhaps including some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 45 mph.

2. It's fast. Fay will be rocketing northward and will only affect directly affect Vermont for several hours.  It might rain torrentially at times, but the rain won't last long enough to cause serious flooding. Some favored spots might get extra rain, causing local stream flooding, road washouts and urban flooding, but this is certainly no Irene.

3. Vermont is dry. Parts of the state are in a drought. That's why I'm liking Fay so much.  It could put a good dent in the dry conditions we have been having.

The thing I worry about most from Fay is not too much rain, but too little. Forecast tracks for Fay keep pushing it further west.  The heaviest rain with northbound tropical storms in the Northeast is to the west of their track.

If Fay goes up through New York State instead of through Vermont, we could miss out on the heaviest rain.   Right now, forecasts call for one to two inches of rain from Fay in Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

More rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday could offer additional help with the dry conditions.

Fay will also help break the heat somewhat.  We have one more hot day today, but the clouds and precipitation with Fay, and another disturbance approaching from the west, will encourage clouds, which will hold daytime temperatures down a little. It will still be miserably humid though, at least into Monday.

Some clouds from Fay will move northward across Vermont this afternoon, and those might actually temper the heat a little in southern  Vermont  It will still be blazing up north, though.

FAY'S EFFECTS ELSEWHERE

It isn't all fun and games with Tropical Storm Fay.  Closer to its landfall, Fay could easily dump enough rain to cause flooding. Flash flood watches are up for New Jersey, western Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, far eastern Pennslyvania  and the Hudson River Valley and surrounding areas from Saratoga Springs south to New York City.

Some of the downpours with Fay are pretty intense.  Ocean City, Maryland had about 1.5 inches of rain in one hour, and 2.75 inches within just two hours, for instance.

Winds along some coastal areas could gust to 55 mph. Coastal flooding is likely to be minor.

Tropical storms like Fay can spin up tornadoes, so some are possible later today and tonight in and near Long Island, New York parts of far southern New England, the  New York City metro area and coastal New Jersey.

Storm Damage Widespread In Vermont; Now The Heat

Severe warned storm on approach to Sheldon, Vermont Wednesday.
The storm toppled trees and power lines in this and other
Vermont towns. 

We had the wildest storm outbreak of the season on Wednesday here in Vermont, with some welcome rains, but also some pretty substantial damage from severe weather.

Most of the damage involved trees and power lines, but siding was damaged on a house in Essex, there were reports of structural damage around Danby, and sidiing damaged by hail the size of ping pong balls in Fair Haven.

The pattern of damage in New England almost exactly matched the area that was under a severe thunderstorm warning.  The warning, and areas of damage were almost exclusively across Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine.

In northern Vermont, the main swath of damage seemed to go on a long track starting in Alburgh and Swanton, continuing to through Sheldon an into eastern Franklin County around Bakersfield and Fairfield. It continued on through eastern Chittenden County,especailly around Essex, Jericho and Bolton, then into the Fayston/Moretown/Waitsfield area in central Vermont.

At least the storms brought some welcome rain.  I was on the edge of the damaging swath that went from Swanton through Sheldon and on into the Bakersfield area.  There was no wind damage on my St. Albans property, but my rain gauge collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain in less than an hour. I noticed a fair amount of street flooding in downtown St. Albans.

CITIZEN SCIENTISTS HELP

Another view of the severe  thunderstorm in Sheldon, Vermont
on Wednesday 

By the way, the damage reports are a great example of how citizen scientists can help the National Weather Service improve forecasts.

Yesteday was a great example.  NWS meteorologist can't be all over the state, observing ongoing thunderstorms.  

They looked at radar trends with these storms, and issued severe thunderstorm warnings when radar images they were looking at indicated danger in these storms.

If you report damage from a storm to the National Weather Service, it helps verify their forecasts and  improves warnings.

For instance, if a bunch of damage reports come in from an area under a servere thunderstorm warning, that helps meteorologists understand there really is danger if they see similar radar trends in the future.

On the other hand, if a certain radar pattern seems to indicate dangerous storms, but that particular pattern never seems to yield real-life damage reports, then maybe that radar pattern doesn't really reflect threatenin weather.

There are a few general ground rules when reporting storms. First of all, do it only when it's safe. Don't go outside to measure the size of the downed tree if the wind is still blowing a million miles an hour and the hail falling is the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it.

When reporting the storm damage, be specific. To the best of your ability, tell the National Weather Service exactly what happened and where, and what time. If you have GPS coordinates great, report those, but most of us don't have that ability.

So report something like this:  "Large tree down on wires at 25 Main Street, Funkytown, Vermont, power is out. Occured at 4:15 p.m. ."  Sending along photos helps.  Don't bother reporting minor damage, like a three inch long dead twig coming off the old maple.

Definitely have a "just the facts ma'am" attitude when reporitng.  Don't complain that the power outage interrupted the season finale of "Real Housewives of Enosburg Falls"

It's probably wise not to telephone the National Weather Service office when they're busy issuing warnings -- too distracting. Call though, if it's an extreme issue, like a tornado touchdown happening in front of you.

I tend to tweet my reports to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. It's @NWSBurlington.   The more citizen reports of legitimate storm danage reported to the NWS the better.

Reporting on storms isn't limited to summer thunderstorms. Also report wind damage, snow, ice, flooding during any season.

ON TO THE FORECAST

As we have been advertising, it's going to be a really hot, oppressive couple of days. Yesterday's storms freshened the air last night, but that's over. Expect high humidity and temeratures in the low 90s both today and Friday.   Tonight will be stuffy for sure.

The weather people are still watching a disturbance that's now near the coast of North Carolina. There's a good chance it will turn into Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Fay.

Wannabe Fay will track northward just off the East Coast, but the devil is in the details.  We know it will affect southern and coastal New England, but that's about it.

It leads to what the National Weather Service in South Burlington calls a tricky weekend forecast for Vermont. Some computer models take Wannabe Fay just off the east coast of New England, or over Providence and Boston.

A few computer models take it inland in New Jersey, then up New York's Hudson River Valley and through Vermont. That path still seems rather unlikely, but would give us a good, benefitical soaking rain.

Remember, even if Wannabe Fay develops into a tropical storm, it won't be a powerhouse in terms of wind  Heavy rain is a threat, not wind.

Meanwhile, another weather disturbance will be approaching from the west. That will dance with either Wannabe Fay or the deep tropical moisture it brings north into New England.

How this plays out is anybody's guess, but at least it gives us a high chance of showers over the weekend.  We certainly could use more rain, even after yesterday's storms.  If the rain is locally torrential, though, there could be a couple spot instances of flash flooding.

Although clouds and showers will keep temperatures below 90 degrees over the weekend, the humidity will still be awful.  Remember, Wannabe Fay is bringing deep tropical air north into New England.

On top of that, once all the showers clear our early next week, we're still definitely at risk for another hot, dry spell late next week.

Vermont Is The New Florida - Continued

A strong thunderstorm over Lake Champlain last summer, More
potentially strong to severe storms are firing up todau. 

If the headline on this post seems familiar, it's because I wrote a similar headline in this blog thingy back in late June.

The heat and humidity has been pretty consistent since the third week in June. On and on it goes.

As uncomfortable as it is, at least there's some rain chances.  Believe it or not, that rain prospect is in part due to the influence of a possible tropical depression. or storm.  Yes, that sounds like Florida, too.   I'll get to that in a bit.

Burlington got to 89 degrees yesterday, just missing the chance to notch yet another 90 degree day this summer.  Don't worry, it looks like there will be two more days above 90 degrees this week. Um, yay?

Today would reach 90 degrees if not for a disturbance coming through that will touch off a fair numer of showers and storms.  We need the rain, still. Especially in the northwestern part of the state. Of course, the far northwest has the lowest chances of rain with this, though there's still roughly even odds.

It was frustrating here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning with a couple flashes of lightning and claps of thunder, but the rain with that storm blew by just to my north.

The showers and storms with this incoming disturbance fired up in Quebec pretty early - before noon. They're moving southeast as of early afternoon and other pop ups are forming in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

A few storms, especially from the Champlain Valley east, could be strong or locally severe, with strong, gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours and lightning. Lightning detector maps were already showing lots of lightning as of 2 p.m. All of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.

Storms should wind down this evening

ON WITH THE HEAT

The core of the latest burst of heat will be over us Thursday and Friday. Heat advisories are up in the Champlain Valley for Thursday and Friday.  And in many places around the Great Lakes and Northeast, too.

Highs will get into the 90s for most of us both days.  Humidity will be even higher than it was during that horrible June heat wave.

An interesting thing might happen with the heat Friday, and may worsen it.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form off the South Carolina coast soon and move northward.

It'll never get that strong, but as it approaches coastal New England Friday, it will pump up the hot ridge of high pressure over northern New England, northern New York and Quebec. That, in turn,  has the potential for boosting temperatures even higher. It's not definite, but it's possible we'll see highs in the mid to upper 90s in some of the hotter spots Friday.

It depends on clouds and the path of that tropical or subtropical system.

WAIT, TROPICAL STORM?

Yes, I did say tropical storm.  If wannabe Tropical Storm Fay develops, it would most likely track toward southeastern New England, or offshore.

It would bring a slug of torrential rains to southern and eastern New England, and perhaps some gusty winds. Wannabe Fay will probably go to far east to directly affect most of Vermont.

However, it will bring added tropical moisture into Vermont, just as another disturbance approaches for the west.

At this point, it appears this situation will give us a terribly oppressive weekend with sky high humidity. But this scenario could also give us numerous showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, and maybe into Sunday.

The good news is if this pans out, we'll get some beneficial rains.  A bit of potential bad news is some slow moving storms this weekend could cause some local flash floods. We certainly don't know that for sure yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

THEN DO WE GET RID OF THE HEAT?

The answer is no.  But you kind of knew that, right?

We do get a temporary reprieve.  That disturbance which could give us the rains over the weekend will probably "cool" us off to readings early next week that are only a little warmer than average. It will still be a little uncomfortable because the humidity won't totally crash. But it will definitely be better.

Not for long, it looks like. Early indications are another burst of high heat and humidity could surge into northern New England during the second half of next week.

Sigh.

Fast Start To Tropical Storm Season, But No Biggies - Yet

Hurricane Katrina in the devastating tropical storm season of 2005.
So far in 2020, there have been more storms than normal, but all
weak. That will change as we head further into hurricane season

If you blinked, you missed it.

But Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Atlantic Ocean well off the United States East Coast Sunday and dissipated in less than 24 hours. Top winds were a paltry 40 mph.

The only impressive thing about Edouard was it's the earliest we've gotten to the letter "E" for an Atlantic tropical storm on record. (Tropical storms come in alphabetical order, so Edouard was the fifth tropical storm of the season).

The last time we'e seen anything like this was the previous record breaking early season in 2005, when Emily formed on July 12, 2005.

That year was when the infamous Hurricane Katrina hit.  We also had destructive hurricanes Rita and Wilma, among others.

Like most years, the early storms so far this summer have been relatively weak, with none of them becoming full-blown hurricanes. The early season of 2005 was remarkable because storms like Dennis became a Category 4 monster near Cuba and Emily in the Atlantic turned into the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Both storms formed in July that year.

Category 5 storms are the strongest and worst of the bunch.  

In an average year, the first full hurricane of the season gets going around August 10. The season peaks in September.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters, writing in the Yale Climate Connection, noted the early 2005 storms formed deep in the tropics. That pattern is usually a harbinger of a severe hurricane season and 2005 was certainly that.

So far, all but one of this year's tropical storms have formed further north, which is less of a sign that this year will be tough.  There might actually be another northern, weak tropical storm in our future. There's a weather disturbance over Georgia this morning.  If it emerges out into the werm waters off the coast of the Carolinas, it could turn into Tropical Storm Fay in a few days.

But don't relax.  There are plenty of other signs we could be in trouble with hurricanes later this summer and fall.

The tropical Atlanttic waters are mostly much warmer than average.  Hot water is fuel for hurricanes, as long as there's not a lot of strong upper level winds to tear thunderstorms apart. Overall water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are actually a little warmer than the toasty levels see in 2005.

The overall weather pattern, and relatively warm water tempertatures in the eastern Pacific, influence the air over the Atlantic tropical region.  Upper level winds are forecast to be relatively light in the Atlantic, which would encourage hurricanes to form.

Additionally, a region in Africa south of the Sahara Desert has been wet and stormy in the late spring and early summer.

If this pattern continues. some of that storminess would move westward off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and spawn hurricanes.

Hurricanes forming from these disturbances coming from Africa are often the most dangerous. They have time to get strong as they move westward toward the Caribbean, and ultimately, sometimes the United States.

Even if this year turns out to be a busy one with hurricanes, everything depends on their paths.  If all of them manage to stay well out to sea, well, then who cares? It's all good.

But chances are, at least one biggie, if not more will threaten Caribbean islands and the United States. Basically, everyone even remotely near the coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should keep an eye on the tropics through the autumn, just in case.

Enjoy Vermont's Last Nice Summer Day For Quite Awhile

Today is everything you want in Vermont summer day.

Any place depicted in orange is expected to have above
normal temperaturs at mid-month, according to this 8-14
day forecast. The darker the orange, the greater the chances
of warmer than normal temperatures. Only a tiny part of
the Pacific Northwest (in blue) will be coolish

There's plenty of sunshine.  It's going to be warm, with most of us getting to 80 degrees or a little above.  It won't be humid.

It's hot enough for a day at the beach and comfortable enough for a hike in the Green Mountains. You won't get rained on. Apply some sun screen and maybe some bug spray and away you go.

This will be your last chance to enjoy the Vermont outdoors for awhile.  We have another long period of hot, humid, oppressive weather that will last right into the weekend at least.

I know that a few of you like hot, humid weather, so sorry for insulting you by complaining about it.  But most of us, frankly, are not enthused about this.

It'll start tomorrow. Last night was a refreshing night for sleeping, and tonight won't be bad either.  The humidity blasts in tomorrow, and by late afternoon you'll feel it.

That warm front bringing us this nasty spell could cause a few scattered showers and tbunderstorms, but most of us won't get wet.  Another little disturbance could trigger some showers and storms here and there on Wednesday, but, again, not all of us will get wet.

The partial cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures "cooler" Tuesday and Wednesday with highs "only" in the mid and upper 80s most places around here.

The heat seems, at least at this point, as if it will peak Thursday and Friday with higha in aome of the valleys reaching the mid-90s. Ugh!  The humidity will be higher than during that big heat wave we had in late June, so it will feel even worse than it did back a couple weeks ago.

Overnight lows will stay in the 70s in many areas, so getting a good night's sleep will be difficult without air conditioning.

There are signs that it could turn a little wetter again by next weekend.  That would drop temperatures a little bit, but the humidity would stay awful.  At least we'll have a shot of getting some badly needed rain five or six days from now.  Of course, the way this summer is going, the prospects of rain next weekend could evaporate before we get there.

The epicenter of the heat will shift gradually from the Northeast and Great Lakes to areas of the Plains and Midwest as the week goes on. That will continue for the following week as well.

Long range forecasts are tricky, as I always point out.  As it stands now, though, a torrid, dangerous heat wave will settle into the central United States.  We in Vermont will likely be out of the main heat zone by about a week from now. However, temperatures will remain warmer than averaage, with very likely some genuinely hot days thrown in.

It's too dry here, but at least the repositioning of the heat toward the west will slightly increase rain chances here in the Northeast starting next weekend, as noted.

This is very bad news for the middle and western parts of the nation, however, Much of the Rockies and Plains are in an increasingly bad drought.  The heat dome that will set up over the Plains will shut off pretty much all precipitation chances out there.

Plus the intense, sunny heat will make the drought intensify much faster.  Wildfires in the Rockies and elsewhere will intensify, too.

The super hot weather will also drive people indoors into air conditioned spaces.  Research into the coronavirus pandemic suggests that air conditioned air, if there's inadequate outside air intake, can make the spread of the virus worse in offices, factories, apartment buildings, restaurants and such.

This summer's weather pattern is consistent with what climate experts have been watching.  Heat waves and hot spells in general across most of the globe have been getting longer and more intense. 

As an aside, I was talking with my mother, age 91, and a lifelong Vermonter.  She said she doesn't remember such consistent and long and frequent hot spells when she was younger. Sure, there were heat waves, but they didn't practically last all summer.

That's an anecdotal story, of course, but telling.

During the upcoming week, try to get into cool places as much as possible. Don't overexert yourself, even if you are healthy.  Drink plenty of liquids and check in frequently with elderly relatives and freinds, because they are especially prone to illness and death during heat waves.

That's especially true with the hot spell coming in over the next few days, because the expected muggy nights won't give ua a reprieve from the effects of the heat.

A Few Of My Favorite Thunderstorms

A thunderstorm looms over an Addison County,
Vermont farm house in 2013

It's one of those lazy days of summer in which I don't feel like doing much, or thinking about anything.

Since there's a chance of scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, I'm just going to throw up a few of my favorite Vermont thunderstorm photos in recent years.

We tend not to get those super dramatic storms like in the Great Plains and Midwest, but Vermont summer storms are impressive, but maybe in a more subdued, artistic fashion

Today's storms are unlikely to be severe, but they might be on the strong side in a couple places. They might even approach severe limits east of the Green Mountains, but those would be very few and far between.

If these storms develop, and it it IS an if, I hope they'll at least be photogenic, like past storms I've seen.

Very likely you've seen them before, but they're worth another look.  Click on each image to make them bigger and easier to see.

I'll even throw in a video at the bottom of this post.

So here we go:

A distant thunderstorm at sunset a few years ago.
Thie photo was taken in St. Albans, Vermont.
The storm was in northern Addison County,
Vermont, so quite a ways away. 

A menacing shelf cloud over St. Albans Bay, Vermont, July 2013.

Chaotic skies over St. Albans, Vermont May, 2014

Starksboro, Vermont, June 2015

Developing thunderstorm looking west from St. Albans, Vermont
July, 2016

A thunderhead north of St. Albans, Vermont creates a profile
portrait, July, 2019

Developing thunderstorm at sunset, June 2020

Now a video: One of the most intense, favorite thunderstorms I've experienced, July 4, 2012. I feel bad for the dude on the bicycle 18-19 seconds in: