Bay Of Bengal Cyclone Could Turn Very Deadly

Cyclone Amphan, that swirl i the southwestern Bay of Bengal, is
expected to hit near the area colored in pink on Wednesday.

While we in the United States are watching weak Tropical Storm Arthur, and a semi-related flood threat in the Carolinas, a much more dangerous storm is brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Amphan strengthened rapidly to a Category 5 storm Sunday with top winds of 160 mph.  A cyclone is what they call a hurricane in the Bay of Bengal.  

As the storm heads north, it's pushing a storm surge ahead of it. The upside down "V" shape of the Bay of Bengal tends to worsen and pile up storm surges up higher. Where Amphan is expected to make landfall, somewhere near the India-Bangladesh border, is flat and low, making the effects of onrushing storm surges all the more deadly.

Cyclone Amphan will probably weaken somewhat before landfall on Wednesday, but that's too little, too late. The cyclone is already pushing a lot of water north, and will continue to do so, even if it becomes somewhat weaker.

A somewhat similar cyclone in 1999 killed about 9,000 people in this area. 

As Bob Henson in the Weather Underground Category 6 blog writes:

"Warning systems have been greatly improved in India and Bengladesh over the 20 years since the Odisha cyclone. However, the region's geography and high population means it is still exceptionally vulnerable, and Amphan will need to be taken seriously by all concerned. The novel corornavirus pandemic will no doubt complicate evacuation and sheltering in myriad ways."

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur had maximum winds of just 45 mph this morning. It'll brush eastern North Carolina with breezes and just a couple inches of rain today.  It will then turn toward the east, away from the United States and then largely dissipate.

A second nearly stalled storm, the cut-off low that I referenced in this here blog thingy yesterday, will crawl southeastward after causing flooding around Chicago, Michigan and other areas near the Gerat Lakes. As the storm heads toward the Southeastern United States, it will interact with tropical moisture and cause potentially flooding rains in western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia over the next few days.

Up to seven inches of rain is expected near Ashville, North Carolina this week.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, that blocked up stalled high pressure system in southern Quebec will keep moisture away from us pretty much all week, meaning you'll really have to water your gardens.

Because of mostly clear skies at night early this week, early morning temperatures will be a bit cool for this time of year tomorrow and Wednesday.   It'll be cold enough in the valleys of the Northeast Kingdom for some frost, but that's typical for this time of year.

The vast majority of us will be fine and frost free during this spell of fair weather. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s early this week, but climb into the 70s during the second half of the week.