Winter Really Wants To Cling To Life Here In New England

The snow isn't entirely out of the perennial beds in my yard in St.
Albans, Vermont and we might get a fair amount of replacement
snow at the end ofthe week, so no spring clean up yet!

We're slowly trying to climb out of winter here in Vermont and the North Country, but once again, like so many recent springs, it's turning out to be a slow slog.]

Some potential surprises in the forecast toward the end of the week and the weekend might sour our moods even more than they already are. At least for those of us who are pining for daffodils.

More on that in a second.

We seem to have fallen into a pattern in recent years. After the insanely warm March of 2012, which was by far the hottest on record and brought us  week of summer temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, we've been faced with mostly reluctant early springs in Vermot since.  

In fact, it seems we never have springs anymore, practically. In the past half decade or snow, we seem to snap from winter to spring. March in 2014, 2015, and 2017 were quite cold. The only warm one in the bunch was 2016.

We managed to eek out a near normal March last year, temperature wise, but we had one of the snowiest Marches on record, and deep snow cover lasted through the end of the month, only to bring us into a cold, snowy first half of April.

The trend seems to be repeating itself this March, in part so far. At least up to this date, it's not as bad as recent Marches, as the temperature is running only about two degrees colder than normal and snowfall is actually a shade below normal. Still, we haven't had too many hints of spring yet.

Unfortunately or fortunately, depending upon how you look at it, that could change in the coming days. Maybe.

Today and Wednesday won't be bad. It'll be a bit on the chilly side this afternoon for this time of year, with highs only in the 30s, but the sun will be out. Tomorrow is the pick of the week, as sunshine and sugaring season highs in the 40s are likely after a necessary overnight freeze to recharge the maples.

Then it gets complicated. And probably wintry. A pretty decent cold front will be coming at us from the west and northwest Thursday. That's not at all strange for the second half of March. However, some energy off the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Coast will generate a nor'easter, and more energy from that cold front will energize that storm. If the cold front arrives near the storm in time.

This potential nor'easter is a bit of surprise. Until about Sunday or so, most weather forecasting models indicated we in northern New England were safe from any big storms. But it's never that simple, and winter always has to find a way to hang on longer than it is welcome.  We might or might not get a snowstorm out of this, but there's at least a chance of it, especially in the mountains.

There have been strangely few nor'easters this winter, but this will be a bonifide one. The question is, how close does it come to Vermont to produce a lot of precipitation? And will it be cold enough for snow?

Computer models are all over the place with this thing, so nobody can yet say with any precision what this thing wants to do.  The general consensus is it will be at least a fairly strong nor'easter. Some models are weaker with it and make it pass well off the coast, and we in Vermont will be just left with gusty snow showers that could still pile up to several inches, especially in the mountains.

If the nor'easter comes closer to the coast and trends stronger, we could be talking about as much as several inches to a foot of snow in parts of Vermont, especially in the mountains and perhaps the Northeast Kingdom. Again, that's still very iffy, but within the realm of possibility.

If this storm were to come closer to the coast and it were midwinter, we'd expect a snowstorm region wide.  But it's late March, and warmer. That leads to a better chance of rain, especially in the valleys.

As you can tell, I'm doing a lot of speculation with this possible nor'easter, so stay tuned later in the week for better information.

It seems almost certain, nor'easter or not, that this coming Saturday will be very wintry, with strong, gusty northwest winds, temperatures staying below freezing in most spots, and frequent snow showers, especially in the mountains.

Weather systems are moving along fast, so it should get better by Sunday.  Heading into at least the beginning of next week, I don't see any huge warmups yet, so we'll keep hanging on to winter. Or winter-lite, anyway.

Some forecasts call for a nice warmup in the final days of March, but long-range forecasts are notoriously fickle. I'll believe it when I see it.