Snowy Vermont Spring Setback Looking More Likely; NW, Alaska Heat Partly To Blame

A first look at expected snowfall Thursday night through Saturday.
Yellow and orange areas would get more than six inches of snow.
This is a preliminary forecast and WILL change. 

As of early Wednesday morning, things still looked like they were coming together for a snowy slap in the face, especially Friday night and into Saturday for Vermont and surrounding areas.

Oh, joy!  

Astronomical spring starts today and it will be deceptively benign, with highs in the 40s under quite a bit of sunshine, so not bad!

It's still looking like that nor'easter will get going after all, and with it, we'll get a big slug of precipitation. At least some of it will be snow.

Weather will deteriorate somewhat tomorrow, with clouds and a rising chance of rain showers in the afternoon.  Everybody except the highest mountain peaks should stay rain.

Thursday night and Friday, the main body of precipitation comes. Had this been mid-winter, everybody in Vermont would have gotten solid six to 12 inches of new snow out of this, with some places getting more.

But it's getting toward the end of March, and it's warmer. At least in the valleys, at least some rain looks likely. But this is tricky. A degree or two will make all the difference. Right now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for mostly rain in the valleys Thursday night and Friday.

If that's true, valley dwellers won't see an enormous snowstorm, but could get several inches toward the end. More on that in a bit. If it turns out to be a few degrees colder than forecast, we could have a winter wonderland on our hands.

Early forecasts, which are totally subject to change, snow a most likely storm total of perhaps three inches in the Champlain Valley. A worst case scenario (with just a one in ten chance of this happening) would dump 10 inches of new snow on the Champlain Valley with even more in the mountains.)

All together now, Oh, Joy!

In the mountains, there will be more snow. It's hard to say at what elevation the rain/snow line will be. The very highest elevations will get a lot of snow. I have no idea yet about those of you who are not really in the valleys, but not really up at the tippy top of mountains either, stay tuned.

Colder air works in Friday night as the storm begins to depart, but the set up right now looks great for upslope snows.

That's when a departing storm wraps moisture in from the north and west, and strong winds go up and over the mountains. The western slopes and mountain peaks will get blasted with this. There's a good chance storm totals in some of the northern Green Mountains will go over a foot.

This is great news for late season skiers, but bad news for people worried about spring flooding. This storm will add to an already substantial snowpack up in the mountains. And this storm will further delay the spring melt.

Valleys, including the Champlain Valley, will share in this upslope snow Friday night and Saturday, too. There's the potential for several inches of snow, especially north of Burlington and away from the immediate lake shore.

After a brief warmup Sunday when temperatures are forecast to get up into the 40s, another cold front will give us more light snow, and more winter chill for the first half of next week.

Let's say it again: Oh, Joy!

By the way, this storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern New England. It will be a little warmer in northern Maine than here during the bulk of the storm, so there is some risk of flooding up there.

NORTHWEST HEAT

A ridiculously resilient ridge of high pressure aloft has kept Alaska oddly warm all winter, and that is continuing now.

This ridge has been causing all sorts of havoc in the Lower 48 and is continuing to do so. Or at least contribute to it.

This ridge has fudged with the weather pattern for weeks. It's caused the jet stream to dive south into the northern Rockies and Plains, causing one of the coldest and Februaries on record in the northern half of the Plains and western Great Lakes.

That helped set the stage for the immense storm last week that unleashed a brutal blizzard on the high Plains, and more importantly the heavy rains last week that caused that huge flood in the central United States.

The ridge in Alaska was also one ingredient that caused the general storminess over the winter, especially late in the season, over much of the continental U.S.

That hot ridge in Alaska has sort of rejiggered itself a bit in recent days. Earlier in the winter, it fed cold air down into coastal British Columbia and Washington State, causing a lot of snow and cold weather in February, which was unusual in a normally mild climate.

This week, the ridge extended into those very same areas causing record warmth.

All-time record highs for the month of March have been set this week from Alaska to Washington. Here we go again with these bizarre extreme warm spells that have become so much more common than decades ago. (I can't prove the record highs I'm about to list are direct caused by climate change, but they are certainly consistent with what you'd expect from global warming.)

Sitka, Alaska reached 67 degrees Tuesday for a new March record high and the warmest temperature for any date between October 7 and April 16.  Eagle, Alaska, set a record high for the month of March with 55 degrees and Northway also set a March record of 50. High temperatures in those two towns are normally in the mid-20s this time of year, says the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska.

Tofino, British Columbia set a March record high of 74 degrees. Amazingly, that would also be the hottest temperature on record for that town for the month of April.

Further south, Seattle reached 79 degrees on Tuesday, its hottest March day on record. More record highs are anticipated for Seattle and environs today.

This ridge in the west this week has created a corresponding dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States. This dip is one important reason why we in Vermont appear as if we're going to get another snowfall Friday and Saturday.

One more time: Oh, Joy!

West Coast Has Been Battered And Bruised Lately With Big, Weird Storms

Big waves on the California coast last week. Photo by Kent Porter/AP

While I've been whining about the stormy, wet, flood producing, windy, temperature-gyration storminess in our New England neck of the woods, it's been a trying December along the West Coast, especially up toward Washington State.

Giant waves, a very odd and strong tornado and then another nasty windstorm has made pretty much everyone in the dark December Northwest weather weary.

Videos are at the bottom of this post.

GIGANTIC WAVES

The stormy period started with some of the largest waves seen on the West Coast in years. These waves were generated mostly by immense storms in the Pacific Ocean in and south of the Gulf of Alaska.

The waves forced the postponement of the Mavericks surfing competition. They'll try to reschedule when the surf becomes less deadly. These cancellations happen from time to time. Better safe than sorry.

Forecasters issued strident warnings to people, urging them to stay away from beaches. "Sneaker waves"  gushes of water from the turbulent seas, could have easily overwhelmed areas along shorelines untouched by waves in the previous hours. That would have swept people out to sea.

The National Weather Service office in San Francisco warned people: "Stay way back from the ocean or face certain death."

So far, I haven't heard of any deaths or serious injuries from these waves. But some surfers braved the waves. Some of them reported got tossed onto rocky shores, giving them  some nasty bumps and scrapes.

There were reports of damage. The 146-year old Ventura Pier in California was closed after a couple pilings and a cross brace were wrecked by the big waves. They're not sure when they will reopen the pier, because now officials have to do a safety inspection. The pier is a popular spot for marriage proposals, prom photos and the like.

BIG TORNADO

A house wrecked by a tornado in Port Orchard, Washington
last week. Photo by Ted S. Warren/AP

It was pretty strange. It was a scene straight out of the spring tornado season in the Great Plains.

Yet it hit this week, a little southwest of Seattle, Washington. It was definitely not the place you'd usually find dangerous tornadoes.

But there it was, an EF-2 tornado that tore roofs off houses, sent debris flying into the air and caused a lot of damage.

Somehow, Washington got lucky in one important way: There were no reports of serious injuries, but roughly 450 homes and buildings were damaged. Some of them look like they are total losses.

Tornadoes do hit Washington State on a fairly regular basis, but they're usually not this intense. On average, the state sees 2.5 tornadoes per year.  This one was the strongest one to hit the state since 1986. And usually, the relatively stronger tornadoes that hit Washington occur on the eastern side of the state, not west of the Cascades.

Most are really weak, but there are exceptions. The worst was an EF-3 in and around Vancouver, Washington on April 5, 1972. It killed six people and injured 300, says mynorthwest.com

As in much of the rest of the nation, if you're going to get a particularly bad tornado in Washington it'll hit in the spring or early summer.

But as we saw this week, there are exceptions. Strong winter storms do sometimes create spinups in western Washington in December, January and February, but these twisters rarely amount to much.

Tuesday's tornado in Port Orchard was probably the strongest winter season tornado on record in Washington, but there is a close second, according to mynorthwest.com

On December 10, 2015, an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds of up to 104 mph touched down in two spots around Battle Ground, Washington, damaging 36 homes but causing no injuries.

THEN A WINDSTORM

Tornadoes like the one that hit Port Orchard, Washington cause severe damage, but normally in highly local areas. Go a half mile away from the tornado path, and everything's fine.

Not so when you get a large scale wind from a large storm coming off the Pacific Ocean. The damage might not be as intense as a tornado, but it's ultimately worse because it's so widespread.

Winds gusted to 70 mph in some locations in Washington, cutting power to tens of thousands of people. Interstate 5 north of Seattle was closed for a time due to downed power lines. Other state highways were closed because of fallen trees.

One person was killed by the storm in British Columbia and power was cut in and around Vancouver. Part of a pier broke apart in the wind and waves along the British Columbia coast, leaving a man stranded on the far end of the pier. He was later rescued by helicopter.

Of course, energy from these storms have been crossing the nation. That helped lead to the storm we had here in Vermont on Friday. Another large storm will organize in the middle of the country just after Christmas, promising a winter storm in the Upper Plains and more wind and rain for the Northeast. It looks like that will include Vermont.

Here's some videos:

We'll start with big waves on the West Coast to start last week:
\
First, an Associated Press reported on the rough surf:



The next video shows some beautiful, massive ways. It also shows a horde of photographers capturing the action. Photo buffs always know where to get the good shots, I guess:



Next up, the Washington state tornado:

Here's a compilation video of what people saw:



Here's a CBS News report that gives an overview:

First The Incredible Winds, Now A Snowstorm

A giant tree fell on this car in Spokane, Washington
during this week's wind storm. The woman inside
was miraculously not badly hurt. Photo by Ryan
Simm of KREM-TV. 

The northwestern United States, basically a broad stripe from Washington State to the Dakotas, is cleaning up from a massive wind storm earlier this week.

And now a snowstorm is developing across the middle of the country.

The wind storm was the main show.

At least four people were killed by falling trees and a million residents lost power, says the Weather Channel. (Note: Obnoxious auto play in link.)

Spokane, Washington had its  strongest non thunderstorm wind gust on record  at 71 mph. Things got so bad there amid the gusts and the blowing dust that the Greater Spokane Department of Emergency Management told everyone to stay inside during the storm, stay away from windows and don't call 911 unless there was a life-threatening emergency, according to television station KREM.

White Pass, Washington, in the Cascade Mountains, reported a gust of 119 mph. Gusts to 109 mph were reported near Boulder, Colorado.  Strong winds brought trees down onto houses in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho.

The strong winds, some of the worst the Northwest has seen in many years, were caused by screamingly extra strong jet stream winds over the region. The winds came from the west, hit the coast of Washington, then went east to southeast over the Rockies.

This kind of orientation can sometimes mix these strong upper level winds down to the surface, especially near mountains, notes Dr. Jeff Masters in his Weather Underground blog.

Next up, a snowstorm. A winter storm warning is up for southeastern South Dakota (hi, relatives in Yankton, South Dakota! Expect a good seven inches of snow or so today!)

The winter storm warning for 6 to 12 inches of snow extends across most of Iowa and through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Winter storm watches are up for much of the lower penisula of Michigan.

The snowstorm is being generated by a storm heading east across the middle of the country. The moisture supply for the storm is only moderate, but it's a vigorous system, so it's able to take full advantage of whatever wetness is in the air to generate snow. And it's cold enough along the winter storm warning path to allow snow, and not rain.

In fact, after the snow passes by, some areas of the upper Midwest could find nighttime temperatures in the upper single numbers at night over the weekend.

After that, we expect the first major Arctic outbreak of the winter over the middle of the country. Temperatures across the Northern Plains will probably fall well below zero, but that's actually not unusual for late November and early December.

It's been so warm, it will just see odd.

Winter appears to be finally here.