Early Vermont Foliage Despite Record Hot Summer (They're Related)

A bit of fall foliage on my St. Albans, Vermont property this afternoon.
At the time I took this photo, the temperature was 91
degrees with a heat index of 99. 

It's gotten past 90 degrees in Vermont today, part of a record hot August, which followed a record hot July.

You'd think trees would want to stay green forever under these conditions, but anyone who's taken even a casual look around is seeing pockets of fall foliage already.

If anything there's more spots of color than usual for late August. That might not be as weird as you think. 

The heat, accompanied by dry conditions in many parts of the region, have stressed trees.

Stressed trees sometimes turn color early. Or the leaves just turn brown and drop off as the soil dries out, as you can see in some areas, like on the ledges on Interstate 89 around Colchester.

It's too soon to tell if this forebodes a weird or muted foliage season, but the danger is there. Very warm early autumns in particular, can screw up foliage.

That, of course is important to Vermont. For decades the Green Mountain State has had the reputation as one of the best places to go when those green mountains turn practically every color but green. Fall foliage has long been a necessary windfall - literally, actually if you consider the windblown, falling leaves of October. It's a big piece of what keeps Vermont's economy afloat.

More than three million tourists annually make a pilgrimage to Vermont each fall to basically watch leaves die.

The weather that sets up our fall foliage season has been weird in Vermont in recent years. Since it involves warmth, I suspect climate change is partly to blame, but I honestly don't have the scientific chops to prove that.

Last year tied for the second hottest September on record, topped by the latest heat wave on record in late September. The unusual heat extended into October, which became the hottest October on record. Dates as late as October 24 had near normal temperatures for July.

The foliage season was very late last year, and muted. In the warmer valleys, some color lasted into the first days of November, which is really weird. If this unusually warm weather continues through September and early October, we'll have another in a series of late foliage seasons.

It's gotten bizarre Tourists were told in the past to visit Vermont between very late September until Columbus Day to see the best foliage. In recent years, it has come later than that.

Last year, I was in a scenic, hilly section of Richmond, Vermont on October 8, an uncomfortably warm, humid afternoon reminiscent of a typical August dog day. The hills were almost entirely green at a time of year they should be just about at peak foliage.

While warm autumns make foliage seasons late, it doesn't necessarily doom their brilliance. September 2016 was tied with last year as the second hottest September on record and the foliage that year was pretty good. September, 2015 holds the record for the hottest September, yet the foliage that October was absolutely brilliant.

There's a lot going on that scientists don't yet understand about what triggers a good foliage season. I have to wonder, though, whether abrupt cooldowns in late September and early October save the season. In 2015, the final days of September and the first week in October were colder than normal. That might have saved that season. Last year, as mentioned, it was July in October and foliage was, meh.

A pretty orange falllen maple leaf in my
yard today, photographed while a heat
advisory was in effect. 

It does seem, though, that when unusual heat extends into October, we get some muted foliage.

There's no telling how Vermont's weather will play out this autumn. Early September looks hot, but beyond that is anybody's guess.

There are other factors that threaten to dull Vermont's fall foliage in future years. The most immediate threat is the emerald ash borer, which will soon kill pretty much all the white ash trees in Vermont, just as this terrible insect has done in other parts of the nation.

White ash adds beautiful golds and purples to the fall foliage palette, and those will sadly be gone in the coming years.

Looking further ahead, in coming decades some of the trees that create many of the most brilliant foliage, namely sugar maples, will tend to head north as the climate in Vermont gradually turns a little too hot for these trees.

They'll be replaced in part by oaks, which tend not to have as vibrant color as maples.

No matter how fall foliage season 2018 plays out - dull and late or vibrant and on time, there will be at least pockets of absolute beauty. And most likely more than just pockets.

Temperatures are in the 90s today, but those little patches of red sugar maple leaves out there now do feel like a little tiny breath of crisp autumn air.

Nobody Is Quite Sure What Trump Is Trying To Accomplish With Climate Change Attack

Trump loves coal, and thinks climate change is hoax, but
the rest of the world is already moving away from
his line of thinking

As you probably heard on the news, President Trump signed an executive order a couple weeks back  intended to roll back his predecessor's actions on climate change

I suppose Trump's climate executive order is meant to be marketed as a pro-business, pro-job move, but it's hard to imagine how it will help businesses or job growth all that much.

A centerpiece of Trump's campaign last year was to promise people in coal producing zones in the United States that he would bring coal jobs back.

That was part of the motivation of Tuesday's executive order. To "keep" his campaign promise.

However, Trump knows that no matter what he does, he won't keep his promise to bring all those coal jobs back.

Basically, nobody wants to buy coal anymore.

As Vox points out:

"Even the most anti-Obama coal executive on the planet, Robert Murray of Murray Energy, knows this. He supports Trump's assault on climate policy and wants it to go further. (after all, he stands to benefit!), but he's under no illusion it will help coal miners. When he met with Trump, 'I suggested that he temper his expectations,' Murray told The Guardian."

It's true that the world went through a coal burning boom as the 21st century opened. China, India and some other developing countries went on a coal plant building binge, which of course is bad if you're worried about climate change.

Coal is pretty much the worst, most effective greenhouse gas you can get. Lots of countries are getting the message. They're increasingly afraid of climate change, which is a good thing to be afraid of.

With that in mind, it seems like the ardor for coal in these countries is starting to cool. For one thing, those big bursts of smog that China has endured in recent years, is partly due to coal plants and people are not happy about it.

This next bit from Vox is pretty stat heavy, but really worth going through. Because it's very telling about how out of step Trump is:

"Here's what happened with coal plants around the world, year on uear, from 2016 to 2017:

"Pre-construction activity (planning, permitting, etc.) was down a whopping 48 percent. In January, 2016, there was 1,090 GW (gigawatts) worth of coal capacity in pre-construction planning; as of January, 2017, it had fallen to 579 GW.

Work in ongoing coal plant construction projects was down 19 percent. In China and India alone, scattered across more than 100 sites, some 68 GW worth of coal plant construction was frozen in place. In fact, across the world, 'more construction is now frozen than entered construction in the past year.

Construction starts - new coal plants entering construction - were down by 62 percent. Meanwhile, especially in the U.S. and Europe, coal plants are retiring, to the tun of about 64 GW worth in the past two years.

It's all slowing down."

(The report referred to in this excerpt is the annual "Boom or Bust" report on the global coal pipeline from Coalswarm, the Sierra Club and Greenpeace.)

Meanwhile, investments in energy production from wind and solar continue to climb worldwide The U.S. could be a worldwide leader in these industries, but Trump is too dumb to see that.

Trump said when he signed the executive order rolling back climate change initiatives that coal miners will get their jobs back. That "clean coal" whatever the hell that is, is the future of American energy independence.

Stephen Colbert reacted this way, which is perfect: "Clean coal sounds like an oxymoron but then so does President Trump."

I've always said that the most dangerous people in the world are very stupid ones who think they are smart. That description fits Donald Trump more than any other person I've ever heard of.

One thing Trump is good at is creating alternative realities for entertainment and business purposes. But when you create these fake realities, real reality always comes back to bite you.

Hard. 

China Crisis: Imagine Having To Flee Your City Because The Smog Is So Bad

For some reason, these Chinese students were forced
to take exams outdoors in a thick, toxic smog.  

The only thing obscuring the skies over my house in relatively clean Vermont today is pure white snowflakes.

Which makes me doubly glad I don't live in northern and central China, where the smog has gotten so bad people are fleeing the pollution-choked cities.

According to the Guardian newspaper:

"Tens of thousands of 'smog refugees" have reportedly fled China's pollution-stricken morth after the country was hit by the latest 'airpocalyse, forcing almost half a billion people to live under a blanket of toxic fumes.

Hugh swaths of north and central China have been living under a pollution 'red alert' since last Friday when a dangerous cocktail of pollutants transformed the skies into a yellow and charcoal-tinted haze"

These winter time smog attacks in China have been creating health hazards for years now. In the winter, temperature inversions often form, with warm air overlying cold air near the surface.

That warm air forms a lid, trapping pollutants in the cold air instead of letting it escape. Sunshine often breaks up inversions, allowing the pollution to drift away. But the weak winter sun is often incapable of breaking inversions like the stronger spring and summer sun can.

The Guardian said Ctrip, China's leading online travel agent, said it expected 150,000 travelers from China to head to places like Australia, Indonesia, Japan and the Maldives to escape the killer smog.

More from the Guardian:

"Yang Xinglin, who also fled to Chongli (a mountain resort away from the pollution) said she requested time off from her job at a state-owned real estate firm so she did not have to inhale the smog.

'You ask me why I left Beijing? It's because I want to live,' Yang, 27, told the Guardian."

Some who wanted to flee the smog couldn't because the poor visibility associated with the pollution was grounding hundreds of flights.

One particular source of outcry over the pollution came when a school headmaster in Henan province forced eighth grade students to take exams outdoors all day in the thick smog, despite the obvious health risks.

As you can see by the photo in this post, you can barely make out the students in the smog.

Chinese government authorities had ordered schools closed because of the smog, but the principal of the school decided to go ahead with the exams anyway since they'd already been organized, said the Straights Times. 

It's unclear why the school made the students take exams outside in the heavily polluted air instead of indoors, where it might have been a little safer.

The principal of the school has since been suspended.

The air is even worse than usual in China this winter because the government is pumping stimulus into polluting industries to prop up the economy. Greenpeace said poorly regulated steel producers are adding to the smog even more than in past winters.

Greenpeace says there is hope in China that things could get better in future winters because use of coal is expected to decrease and the government is investing in cleaner industry and environmental regulations.

Retailers Are Mad You're Not Buying Winter Clothes Because It's Too Warm

The warm December weather has made people
not into buying winter clothes, possibly including
Ethan Renoe, the now famous dude who was interviewed
while jogging shirtless in balmy Chicago last weekend.
Photo from television station WGN  

Here's another effect of the oddly warm December weather that is embracing much of the nation:

Nobody's buying winter clothes, it seems.

Ad Age reports that retailers have lost $185 million in sales because the balmy weather doesn't have many people in the mood to buy coats, ski parkas, gloves, hats and the like.

AdAge said you'd think people might want to spend more on apparel, because they're saving so much on their heating bills. Why heat your house when it's 70 degrees outside?

But people are spending any extra cash they might have on increasingly expensive services like health care, housing and utilities.

You might need to buy a winter coat when the inevitable return to winter hits eventually, but if that's the case, you were smart to wait.

According to Ad Age:

"'The warmer than average weather continues to dampen demand for heavier winter items and has also resulted in a rash of discounting across a number of retailers which has, in turn, driven some volume -- but largel at the expense of total value,' wrote Neil Saunders, CEO of retail research firm Conlumino in a recent report."

Enjoy the sales, folks!

California Drought: The State Is Totally Screwed. To A Lesser Extent, You Are, Too.

California water managers on skis and snowshoes
stick a long metal pole into the snow
on April 1, 2012 in the Sierra Nevada mountains
to measure snow and its water content.  

Yesterday, California Gov Jerry Brown and Frank Gehrke strolled out onto a nice alpine meadow in the Sierra Nevada in front of a waiting scrum of reporters.  

Gehrke held a big tall aluminum pole. There was a black piece of tape or something about two feet up the pole. About five feet up the pole, there was another piece of tape, this one green.

That piece of black tape? That was how deep the snow was on this meadow around April 1, 1977, which used to be the record for the paltriest snow cover for that time of year in the meadow. That piece of green tape was how deep the snow usually is this time of year.

This illustrates why California is screwed. Their drought is in its fourth year. The state depends upon snow melt from the Sierra to feed reservoirs and much of the state's water needs.

Months of record winter warmth has melted what little snow has fallen in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Snow cover is just five percent of where it should be this time of year. It's like asking for a glass of water and only getting a medicine dropper full of liquid instead.

The same site as the photo above, but this photo was taken
yesterday. There is no snow to measure amid
California's worst drought in modern history.  

Governor Brown used the occasion in that alpine meadow to announce unprecedented water restrictions on Californias. Every city is going to have to use 25 percent less water than it usually does.

California state water managers are calling the situation scary.  

Craig Miller at KQED, the public media network for northern California, said more than 400,000 acres of farmland were fallow last year because of a lack of water. That figure could double this year.

Less farming means fewer agriculture-related jobs, too. Not only farmworkers, but suppliers of farm equipment. This will have a ripple effect across the nation as farm suppliers across the United States get fewer orders from California.

You're going to feel California's drought in your wallet and your taste buds, even if you live in a place with oodles of water.

As Mother Jones points out, nearly half of all of the United State's supply of fruits, vegetables and nuts come from California.

This includes 99 percent of all our almonds and walnuts, 98 percent of our pistachios, 95 percent of broccoli and 92 percent of strawberries.

Of course, not all farmland in California will stop producing. Irrigation will continue, crops will keep growing and being distributed nationwide, but definitely to a lesser extent than in that past.

That will squeeze supply. The basic laws of supply and demand mean if the supply goes down, prices go up. Your favorite walnut strawberry dessert is about to become unaffordable.

Some farmers will also resort to pumping out more and more groundwater to make up for lost irrigation allocations from state and local water managers.

As Eric Holthaus writes in Slate, this desperate effort to reach groundwater can result in sinking ground levels and a permanent reduction in water storage capacity even when and if the rains finally return to California.

New laws aimed at reducing overuse of groundwater won't be enforced until 2040, and should be imposed much sooner than that, writes Holthaus. 

In California, people are going to have to get used to watching every drop of water they use. I know that would be hard for me, in damp old Vermont, where winter snows and spring and summer rains have been consistently reliable, knock on wood. (Sometimes too reliable: We've had a huge increase in the number and severity of floods in recent years.)

For most people, letting their lawns go brown, or replacing lawns with plants that don't use much water is the easy part. But people will continually have to be mindful of the lengths of their showers, how often they wash their clothes, how often they flush the toilet.

Some communities will run out of water entirely, Craig quotes Mark Cowin, who heads California's Department of Water Resources.

It a bit of cruel irony, over the next week as we get into April, some rain and mountain snow might fall on the northern half of California. April is traditionally the start of California's dry season, which typically lasts until late autumn.

This rain and snow won't make much difference at all in the drought. California had hoped and waited as it looked like an El Nino weather pattern might take hold. El Ninos often dump heavy winter precipitation on California.

But El Nino never really got going, until now, as it seems to be finally taking shape. Too late. El Nino does not override California's summer dry season.

For the next several months, we're going to be treated to a constant stream of news stories about California towns without water, rising food prices, wildfires and pitched political battles over who gets to use how much water in California.

Any way you look at it, the situation is ugly. And it's going to get uglier.