Real Winter Has Finally Descended On Vermont, Even With Rain Chances

The sun rises behind snow and ice covered trees in St. Albans, Vermont
Sunday, the coldest morning of the winter so far. 

Over the past few days, winter has finally truly established itself in Vermont and will stick around for a least a week.

Even with that flat statement, you know the kind of "winter" we've had.

Even with this new weather regime, there are still rain chances in parts of Vermont Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. Still, there are snow chances during the same period as well, and we're also not done with Arctic outbreaks like this weekend's just yet.  

First of all, can I say what a gorgeous day we had Saturday. Yes, it was cold, with temperatures never rising above the upper single numbers to mid-teens. But that brilliant blue sky with sun shining on sparkling snow and whitened trees was something to behold.

In the mountains, the setting sun created a beautiful salmon pink alpenglow on the snow covered mountains with a full moon rising behind them. I wish I was able to go out and take photos yesterday, but at least I saw some of it.

Last night was something, too.  The full moon shining on that fresh snow meant it never really got dark last night.  People took photos at midnight last night and the landscape was clearly visible.

Of course, a clear, calm night with light winds over a deep snow cover meant temperatures really bottomed  out.  It was the the first truly Arctic night of the winter  (though we had a rather chilly spell in mid-December, too).

A white pine on my St. Albans, Vermont property greets a cold
Sunday February morning under the weight of snow and ice.

This morning, though, was the first 30 below night in Vermont. Island Pond reached 31 below and it was 30 below on Lake Seymour, according to Jennifer Hannux, a Vermont outdoor photographer and weather enthusiast.

In the Banana Belt of the Champlain Valley, it only got down to 9 below in Burlington. Still quite cold, but nothing extreme. To put this all in perspective, we missed record lows last night by ten to 20 degrees.  So this wasn't unusual at all.

Today will warm up under skies that will cloud up.  That means more precipitation is coming.  It won't be a big storm. But this is the mild winter of 2019-20, so it won't be all snow.

Broader, warmer valleys should get a dusting to two inches of snow before the precipitation mixes with rain before ending Monday.  Higher elevations should stay all snow, with an expected accumulation of one to four inches.

The Monday morning commute might be a little slow, so keep that in consideration. It won't be impossible like it was Friday, but you'll still want to allow some extra time.

A weak system Tuesday will probably throw a few snowflakes or rain drops at us.  A larger potential storm Thursday will probably give us more snow and/or rain or mixed precipitation. It's too soon to tell.  I'm calling this a larger potential storm, but it won't be enormous.  At this point it looks like it will be light to moderate, and quick.

After that storm, it looks like another Arctic shot of air will come in.  There's indications that one will be even colder than the one we got yesterday and last night.  It won't last for a long time, however. Maybe we'll get two of three days of really cold weather before it warms up again.

Bottom Really Drops Out Of Temperatures This Morning

Dawn breaks on a frigid Vermont March morning today,
as this webcam view from Nashville, Vermont depicts.
Temperatures were 0 to 20 below across the
region this morning. 

Brrr!

As expected, this Sunday morning was very January-like, and even colder than some forecasts indicated.

Blame Arctic air, clear skies, and a deep snowpack.

There usually isn't this much deep snow in northern New England this time of year, at least in the valleys. Deep, fresh snowcover tends to make cold snaps worse when dry, cold Arctic air arrives from Canada.

That was certainly the case this morning.  Just before dawn, it was 21 below in Saranac Lake, New York and Whitefield, New Hampshire. A 20 below reading was reported from Island Pond, Vermont. Montgomery, Vermont was at 16 below.

These temperatures might have gone down a degree or two from these frigid levels before the sun came up. I don't have the final stats yet.

At last report even "tropical" Burlington Vermont was down to 1 below, the first time it's gotten that cold since February 3.

The forecast hasn't changed any since last night, so if you like the Arctic cold, you'll love the forecast.

All these temperatures are approaching record lows, most of them on this date set in 1956. March, 1956 was another time we had three snowy March nor'easters.

Temperatures will only modify very slightly today and Monday. We might actually get to a little above 20 degrees this afternoon and the mid 20s Monday -- still far, far colder than normal this time of year.

Tonight's lows will be within a few degrees of zero again, with cold mountain hollows getting well below zero.

At least the wind won't be as bad as Saturday. During the morning and early afternoon, winds gusted as high as 45 mph in Burlington, and many other locations around the North Country. This, while temperatures were in the teens, so wind chills were below zero. The wind did manage to die down somewhat in the mid to late afternoon, which I suppose helped a bit.

I see no signs of any springlike weather for more than a week. Ugh.

As I expected, forecast models are starting to nudge that mid to late week nor'easter a bit closer to the coast. So far, the trend isn't bringing it close enough to give Vermont any snow, but we'll still have to keep an eye on it. As it stands now, coastal New England could get a bit of snow and gusty winds and maybe some more coastal flooding out of it.

We'll continue to monitor.