Temperature Extremes: 100 In Plains, Still Expecting Snow New England

The Weather Channel is forecasting these hot temperatures
in the Plains over the next few days.  

This week, I'm at my temporary weather center in Yankton, South Dakota, having a nice visit with relatives.

Another bonus of this visit: I'm missing the chill and mountaintop snow in my native Vermont that's expected over the next couple of days.

The drawback: I might be experiencing torrid 100 degree temperatures here in South Dakota later this week.  

We've gotten into one of those stuck weather patterns that features extreme warmth in one part of the country, with deep chill in others.

A heat ridge that caused record high temperatures in recent days over the western United States is moving into the central Plains. A broad area of the central U.S. will be between 95 and 100 degrees Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 

More record highs will fall.

Anyone in New England hoping for a taste of this summer weather is out of luck. When there's a big bump northward in the jet stream, like there is in the Plains to cause the heat, there's usuially a dip further east.

And so it is now. The ridge in the Plains is bigger than normal, which makes the dip in the east bigger than  normal too. That explains the extremes. Heat in South Dakota, snow in northern New England.

Usually, by June northward bulges and southward dips in the jet stream aren't this wild, but I guess this year, that's what we're getting.

The weather patterns are gummed up, too, so it won't change much through next week.

It will become less extreme next week, which is nice. Hot, but not 100 next week in the Plains. Cooler than normal, but no mountain snow next week in New England.

Snow In Vermont In June? Could Be Wednesday Night

Chances are snow will fall on Vermont Wednesday night. In June. 

OK, it probably won't look like this in Burlington, Vermont
Thursday morning, but the tip top of Mount Mansfield
could be white with snow. This photo is from a large
snowstorm in March, 2011. on

Don't worry, this won't be an 1816 Year Without A Summer general snowfall across most of the state.

But the highest mountain peaks could be white come Thursday morning.   

If Mount Mansfield gets snow, it will only be the fourth time that happened in June there since they started keeping records up there in 1954.

The culprit is a big shot of cold air, very unusually cold for this time of year coming in from Canada and setting up as a deep pool of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. 

Basically it's a big storm that's high above the Earth's surface, but not down here.

This whole thing is a redux of that spring pattern we had in April when we had bouts of unusual chill parking over New England.

The cold will be introduced today in the form of a strong cold front and possibly some strong or even a few scattered severe thunderstorms in New England, including Vermont.

 The temperature in the air high above is already crashing. Meanwhile, it's not cold yet down here. Plus the sun is as strong as it gets this time of year.

That means that as the cold front comes in, it'll set off some thunderstorms. The contrast between the warmth surface and the chilly air aloft will help some of the thunderstorms to billow up into strong ones.

That means a few places will get small hail and gusty winds. A couple places in Vermont, especially the eastern half of the state will get a severe thunderstorm, which could bring damaging wind gusts of 60 mph.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across pretty much all of New England and a slightly higher risk of severe weather in central New England.

Then the cold air plunges in. High temperatures across much of Vermont and the rest of northern New England will only get into the 50s Wednesday, Thursday and probably Friday.

On the bright side, it will be too cloudy for frost at night in most places, though there could be some frost and freezes in the cold hollows of northern Vermont Friday night. 

It should be in the mid-70s this time of year. High temperatures in the 50s are normal for April. 

It will be pretty cloudy as well. That strong June sunshine will heat the ground feebly, causing rising air. That means lots of clouds, many scattered light showers and that risk of snow showers on the mountain peaks.

This cold wave is going to last a long time for early June. Three days in the 50s will probably hurt your tomato and pepper plants. Those veggies crave sunshine and warmth, which we won't get for awhile. (They'll probably bounce back later in the month, when and if it gets warmer.)

This weekend, it will turn a tad warmer, but still be quite a bit cooler than normal, with highs only in the 60s to near 70.

This cold wave is probably payback for May. Each of the last nine days in May had high temperatures of 80 or more, the longest such streak on record for that month. 

The heat continued into early June, as four of the first six days got to 80. 

It won't be 80 degrees again for quite awhile. Enjoy autumn in June, I guess. 

Tropical Storm Coliln Causing Trouble In Florida, And Southeast

Strong upper level winds are making Tropical
Storm Colin not look like a traditional tropical
storm, but it's packing punch in Florida 

Tropical Storm Colin blossomed in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and is going to cause a ton of trouble in Florida today, and in parts of the Carolinas Tuesday.

Colin was a disorganized mess this morning as it approached northern Florida from the Gulf of Mexico, but don't let that fool you. Heavy rain - up to eight inches of it -- will cause quite a bit of flooding.    

Storm surges will reach one to three feet on the northern Gulf Coast of Florida from Tampa north.  That doesn't sound like much until you consider the Florida coast is not like New England's.

The land doesn't rise in elevation going inland in Florida, so storm surges can cause quite a bit of damage to buildings in Florida coastal towns, since a lot of real estate is less than three feet above sea level there.

Overall winds will probably peak around 50 mph in Florida as Colin passes through.  Gusts will get higher than that, so there will be damage to trees, carports, roofs, trees, that sort of thing.

Strong upper level winds are making Colin that disorganized mess. We're used to seeing nice circular tropical storms and hurricanes on satellite pictures, but Colin is just a mass of ragged, mean looking clouds.

The strong winds in the upper atmosphere, called wind shear, are making Colin look so messy, and will prevent it from strengthening into a hurricane. (You want light winds aloft over a tropical storm to make it strengthen.)

That same wind shear that's not letting Collin strengthen will make some of the storm's thunderstorms spin as they get into Florida and southern Georgia.  Some thunderstorms, once they get to spinning, can drop tornadoes, so that's a threat along the path of Colin, for sure.

Weather had already gotten bad in Florida by late morning. Strong storms, high winds and heavy rains were hitting parts of the state.

Colin will cross southern Florida tonight and move pretty close to the Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina coasts Tuesday before heading out to sea.

Don't pay too much attention to the path of Colin's exact center. Especially since Colin is not the classic, symmetrical tropical storm. A wide swath of land in Florida, southern Georgia, South Carolina and much of North Carolina are in for some rough weather.

It's awfully early in the hurricane season to be on the third one already. This is the earliest on record we've gotten to the letter "C" in the list of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.

This doesn't mean we're going to have a blockbuster hurricane season with tons and tons of storms. In fact, the National Hurricane Center predicts an average season.

Still it only takes one super strong hurricane to cause a huge disaster.

Colin isn't a super strong storm, but as I said it isn't super strong. A major hurricane is definied as one having sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The United States coast hasn't been hit by a storm that strong at landfall since Wilma in 2005. That's the longest period of time on record the nation has gone without a major hurricane. We're way overdue.

Colin will certainly cause damage, though. And Bonnie, last week, already has with the flooding it caused in South and North Carolina. The Carolinas are getting two tropical storms within two weeks.

Lucky them.

Dust Devil Wows At Burlington, Vermont Airport

Dust devil at Burlington, Vermont
International Airport Wedenesday.
Photo by Charlene Whitehouse  

Charlene Whitehouse was at the Burlington International Airport in Vermont when she captured this remarkable scene.

Near the tarmac, with a nice shot of the beautiful Green Mountains, including the iconic Camels Hump in the background, was a well-formed dust devil.

It's a little disconcerting to see, especially since I'm flying out of that very airport Sunday, but the dust devil Whitehouse captured on camera, and almost all of them, are pretty damn harmless.

Still, the well defined dust devil as been the talk of local and even national meteorological circles, since it's such a cool photo. The Weather Channel even featured it. 

Dust devils usually form on hot, dry afternoons. It was 80 degrees and partly sunny Wednesday afternoon in Burlington, so close enough.

As the Weather Channel explains it:

"What likely happened in this situation was that the dark asphalt on the runway heated up faster than the surrounding grass, since grass contains moisture and absorbs some of the heat from the sun.

When this temperature contrast between different ground surfaces develops, it can overcome the large weather influence and create a mini weather patter. The warmer ground surface heats up the air above it, so the air becomes warmer than the ground and begins to rise. As it rises, it pushes through the cooler air above it and and creates a vertical column of warm, rising air.

The cool air that was pushed out of the way then circulates vertically around this column of warm, rising air. If a wind gust comes along, it can blow ths air arrangement onto its side, which forms a dust devil."

Dust devils tend not to be dangerous and last only a short while. Some of the strongest ones can cause some wind damage, but the one in Burlington wasn't likely strong enough to cause damage, had it hit anything.

Stormy, Maybe Even Tornadic Trouble On U.S. East Coast This Sunday

An enhance risk of severe storms and maybe some
tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday. 

Sunday sure is shaping up to be a turbulent day along the East Coast, with what appears to be an upcoming outbreak of severe storms and maybe even some tornadoes in the Middle Atlantic states, and flooding elsewhere.

A storm system that's expected to be quite strong for this time of year is likely to cross the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada.

Below that, extending into the United States, will be an energetic cold front approaching the East Coast.

A lot of parameters seem to be coming into place for what could be a oddly placed tornado outbreak extending most likely through Maryland, the Washington DC area, Virginia and on into North Carolina, and maybe some states surrounding these regions.

The air will become humid. And highly unstable due to that approaching cold front. Winds will veer with height, setting the stage for what NOAA's Storm Prediction Center expects will be some supercell thunderstorms.

Supercells can happen anywhere but are most common in the Midwest and in the spring, in the South. They tend to be long-lasting powerhouse thunderstorms that can rotate, drop huge hailstones, produce very damaging winds and, often, tornadoes.

Not everyone in the area I mentioned will see a tornado. In fact, not everyone there will see a severe thunderstorm.  But the Storm Prediction  Center has already noted an enhanced risk of severe weather for the region, which is a higher level of alert than I usually see two days in advance.

In general, the greatest threat in the Mid-Atlantic will be from very strong, damaging straight line winds, but I think there will be at least a few tornadoes.

Definitely something to worry about in such a heavily populated part of the country.

Further to the south, another tropical storm will try to get going in the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think upper level winds are favorable enough to produce what would be Tropical Storm Colin. But something will get going in the Gulf, even if it's not a true tropical storm.

The upshot is very heavy rain and flooding for Florida from this thing toward Sunday.

New England will be too far north to get severe storms, but it is in for a drenching Sunday and Monday. Normally, I'd be worried about flash flooding in the New England from this, but it's been so dry up there until now that the risk is lower than it otherwise would be.

Still, this storm system is dynamic enough to produce very heavy rain, so there's still a chance of some localized flooding Sunday afternoon or night, or Monday, for much of New England.

Following all this chaos, it will turn much cooler in the Northeast next week than it has been for the past two weeks or so.

Meanwhile,  a heat wave with some record high temperatures is starting along the West Coast and is likely to continue into the weekend.

Texas Keeps Getting Slammed By Floods. Europe, Too

The results of extreme flooding in Germany this week.  

Flash flood warnings and watches are up for big swaths of Texas again today as another round of incredible rains drowns the.

This has happened repeatedly for at least a year now. Flooding is common in Texas, but the repeated bouts of record high river flooding is not nearly so common.

This time it was the Brazos River that reached record crests.

At least six people have died in the flooding, including Darren Mitchell, 21, whose scary photo I ran in the last update on the Texas flooding.

He took the photo as his truck was sinking beneath the water and posted it to Facebook on May 26 with the message, "All I wanted to do was go home."

Mitchell had been missing for several days, until his body was found this week downstream from  his overturned truck.

The most recent flooding over recent weeks has hit almost all corners of Texas, from Lubbock to Houston.  Texas officials declared states of disaster in 31 counties across the Lone Star State.

If anything, it's even worse in Europe, because of an upper level low stuck in Austria. That has caused repeated rounds of strong thunderstorms which in turned touched off severe flooding in parts of Germany, France, Belgium and adjacent areas.

Here's a jeep being swept away Tuesday northeast of Austin, Texas. It doesn't look like anyone was in it, thank goodness:



This video shows the extreme flooding in Germany

Reversal Of Fortunes In May For A Formerly Chilly Vermont Spring

Despite a cool April and beginning of May,
flowers reliably bloomed in my St. Albans,
Vermont garden. The heat blasted in during
the second half of May  

Spring seemed reluctant this year after a record warm winter in Vermont, and May seemed to be following this pattern.

By the middle of May this year, it had snowed twice during the month and temperatures were running  a good two degrees below normal.

Certainly a switch from May, 2015, which was the hottest on record in Vermont.

The coolest day of the month in Burlington got down to 33 degrees on the 10th, which means the last freeze of the season there (April 29) was a little earlier than average.

However, much of Vermont had a number of frosty mornings during the first half of May.

But, as things often do around here, thinks reversed course dramatically.

The end of the month was very warm, making May 2016 more than three degrees warmer than average at Burlington.

Each of the last nine days of the month got up to 80 or above, which is a very remarkable stretch for May. Two of those days were in the 90s.

Summer is here, I guess. At least maybe. More on that in a moment.

Worryingly, though, May continued a dry trend that's really been going on since last fall in Vermont. Sure, we've had our wet periods. February was rainy, for example. But it's getting drier and drier.

Precipitation in May was an inch below normal. There was some welcome rain at the end of the month, though that came in the form of severe thunderstorms in the far northwest corner of the state. 

June is getting off to a warmish and definitely dry start, too, but there are signs that starting this weekend, we'll temporarily get into a cool, wetter pattern, at least off and on, through the middle of June

We'll see about that.