May Roller Coaster Continues Into June

As we well know, May's weather in Vermont was a dizzying rollercoaster of cold, heat, snow and drought.

Summery sky over St.Albans, Vermont Thursday evening.  We're still
getting ups and downs in the weather, but we still need rain. 

It seems the up and down pattern is continuing into June.  The month opened with snow on Vermont's highest peaks, followed by frost in many valleys. Wednesday afternoon was chilly, followed by a very warm and relatively humid Thursday. 

This will go on: Very warm today, cool again over the weekend and warm again next week. The only consistency will be the continued, troubling relative lack of rain. 

We're getting more into summer now, so the peaks and valleys of variable weather are definitely getting less dramatic. 

The weekend cool wave will be similar to last Sunday's but much milder. It won't involve any snow or frost. You might need a sweater, but not a parka. The warmth today and next week at this point doesn't look so extreme either. Maybe 80s. 

The problem, as noted, is the lack of rain. The U.S. Drought Monitor is now declaring northern New York and northwestern Vermont as "abnormally dry," just a step below drought. 

No soaking rains are anticipated.  There might be some isolated thundershowers this afternoon, but the overwhelming majority of us won't get any rain.  Most of us DO have a good shot at getting some showers late tonight and Saturday, but most of us will only receive a quarter inch of rain or less. 

Soon to be born again Tropical Storm Cristobal is headed toward the Gulf Coast and sometimes the remnants of such systems give us a good shot of rain.  It doesn't look like that will happen with Cristobal. It'll make a beeline for the Great Lakes and avoid us next week. leaving us under dry high pressure. 

Long range forecasts into the second and third week of the month also don't hold out much hope for some nice soakers. Just a continued up and down trend in temperatures.

I guess we'll just have to keep watering the gardens and hope the soil moisture holds out for awhile for farmers. 

Odds And Ends: British Pressure, Raining Iguanas And Strange Tornado Warnings

Record high barometric pressure in London, England is among the
odd but mostly not dangerous weather events this week
around the world.

Some or all of the stuff in this post today might seem a bit isoteric, but they're really not.  But they are examples of how weather and climate can be interesting to watch even when the actual weather you're feeling isn't extreme at all.

We've had record high pressure in Great Britain. It was at least potentially raining iguanas in South Florida because of a chilly spell, and what was the deal with those tornado warnings along the winter dreary coast of Washington State?

LONDON PRESSURE 

The other day, London, England recorded its highest barometric pressure on record, which is impressive, since they've been keeping track of such things there for over 300 years.

According to Weather Underground's Category 6 blog, the mean sea-level pressure at Heathrow Airport was 1049.6 mb or 30.99 inches Sunday evening.

Record high pressures were also reported in France, Belgium and elsewhere on Sunday.

The record high pressure in London is really cool for weather geeks, but Londoners didn't exactly suffer under these condtiions. Record low pressure is associated with extreme storminess, but record high pressure usually brings fair weather.

In North America, near record high pressure is associated, at least in the winter, is usually associated with extremely cold Arctic outbreaks. But in England and western Europe, this record high pressure just brought fair and just relatively chilly air to the region

As Category 6 points out, though, if the pressure is high somewhere, it has to be low somewhere else.

When the air pressure is high, air is sinking in that spot. When air pressure is low, it's rising.

You read here the other day about that mammoth blizzard in Newfoundland. That was an extremely strong storm, with very low barometric.  That meant a lot of air was rising. (Rising air also means lots of precipitation, so no wonder it snowed so hard in Newfoundland.)

But that rising air has to end up somewhere. What goes up, must come down, so all that air that rose near Newfoundland sank near the United Kingdom.  With lots of sinking air the air pressure at the surface got to record high levels.

Another thing that happened is related: When there's a contrast over short distances between high pressure and low pressure, you get a lot of wind.

A storm hit Spain this week causing incredible amounts of wind and coastal flooding.  The storm, which is of course an area of low pressure, in Spain wasn't too, too strong as storms go. But the contrast between the mid-strength storm in Spain and the very high pressure to its north brought the wind, tides and towering, destructive waves.

Video of that storm, definitely worth watching, is at the bottom of this post.

FLORIDA WIND CHILLS AND IGUANAS

A burst of chilly air came into Florida this week. Well, it least it was chilly for them.

The Florida cold weather made a lot of news, not because it was so extreme in a historical context, but because these cold snaps have become increasingly rare in the Sunshine State due to global warming.

Early this morning, it got down to 40 degrees in Miami, which was the coldest it's been there since December, 2010. That sounds impressive, but the record low temperature for the date there is 30 degrees, so they didn't even get close to a record.

Still, 40 degrees is chilly for South Florida. The National Weather Service in Miami issued an unusual statement telling residents to not be surprised if iguanas fall from the trees in the cold.

When temperatures get into the 40s, iguanas stiffen up and basically shut down, so they'll fall from the trees. Some might die, but many if not most will recover. People were told to leave seemingly dead iguanas alone, because they'd likely recover if warmed up and maybe bite you.

The National Weather Service also issued wind chill advisories for South Florida yesterday, warning of air with wind that would make it feel like it was in the 20s and 30s outside.

To us winter hardy northerners, that seems laughable because a January day in the 30s is a warm spell. But people in Florida aren't used to such temperatures, so the advisory to stay well dressed to ward off hypothermia was smart.

Of course, the NWS used the standard language used all across the United States for wind chill advisories, so the statement also alerted people to the possibility of frostbite. That is impossible if actual temperatures stay above freezing, as they did in South Florida

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TORNADOES?

A series of storms off the Pacific Ocean has kept the western Washington and Oregon pretty wet this month, and that parade of wet weather will continue this week.

A particularly rembunctious storm came ashore in Washington yesterday, accompanied by rotating thunderstorms that had the potential to unleash tornadoes.

At one point late Tuesday afternoon, four separate tornado warnings were in effect for coastal Washington. There have been no confirmed tornado touchdowns in Washington so far but an EF-0 twister did hit coastal Oregon Tuesday, causing minor damage.

Tornadoes are rare in this area, though every once in awhile a strong Pacific storm can set off a tornado.

Here's a video of the incredible coastal waves in Spain caused by that storm and the very high pressure to the north:

March In Vermont Seemed Bad, But It Was Only Because Of Long Winter

Scene in my yard this morning definitely felt like an April Fool!
After a snowy March, the snow cover had finally mostly disappeared
by yesterday, only to return overnight to greet me this morning.
After a chilly day today, seasonable temperatures the
rest of the week should get rid of this inch of snow cover.

It's April Fool's Day! Which means its time to assess Vermont's weather in March.

The statistics show, at least from my perspective, that it wasn't as bad as I thought. 

In Burlington, it was essentially a normal March. Temperatures were just a tad cooler than normal, with a mean temperature of 30.4 degrees.

It was actually about 0.6 degrees cooler than average in the Queen City, but that's essentially run of the mill normal.

Precipitation - rain and melted snow - was pretty much spot on average at around 2.3 inches.

The month's snowfall, 15.2 inches, was only a little more than an inch above normal. Remember, though, that many areas of the state had much more snow than that during March.

I would have guessed the March statistics would have come out worse than they did. But it was psychological. Vermont did not have a particularly harsh winter, though snowfall was definitely above average.

What made us weary by March was the fact that winter came in early, sudden and fast in mid-November and there were few if any breaks to the relatively cold weather and nearly constant snows.

In March, the Champlain Valley benefitted at times from southerly winds that warmed that region more than other parts of Vermont.  Also, most of the time, deeper snow cover means chillier nights, dragging down the average temperature for the month.  Snow cover was definitely thicker away from the Champlain Valley, and that refrigerated other parts of the state.

For instance, Montpelier's March is coming in around three degrees chillier than average. St. Johnsbury had a shivery month, coming in a little more than four degrees colder than normal.

Looking ahead into April, we can definitely say winter is over. I know that sounds like an April Fool's Day joke, given that there's a coating of fresh snow on the ground in many places across northern Vermont this morning. (We had nearly an inch of new snow at my place in St. Albans last night.)

It was so wintry during this opening dawn of April that Vermont State Police reported that a number of cars slid off icy Interstate 89 between Montpelier and Richmond this morning.

There will probably be some wintry reminders this month, for sure. For instance, normal April snowfall in Burlington is 4.1 inches.

Still, we can finally say goodbye to any extended periods of wintry weather.

Unlike last April, when we had to endure frequent bursts of snow, ice and chill during the first three weeks of the month, forecasts for the first half of April, 2019 seem OK.

There's still what will be an intense nor'easter to watch around Tuesday night and Wednesday that still looks promisingly like it will completely miss Vermont.  If it were to hug the coast, we'd probably get another fairly significant wet snowstorm.  But so far, all the guidance has it much too far to the east to do us any harm. By that I mean, no snow.

While wintry surprises can certainly happen, it's still looking like temperatures during at least the first half of April will be near or above normal, which is nice.  Again, though things can change, I also don't see any blockbuster storms in the near future, so major flooding is pretty much out of the question for now.

However, there's still a lot of snow left in the mountains yet to melt, so we'll need to keep an eye on that.

Time to watch the landscape slowly wake up and turn greener this month after a long, long winter.

Update: Vermont Severe Threat Low, But Nasty Weekend Anyway

The risk of any severe weather, in yellow and
dark green, will largely stay south of Vermont.
Big chill returns Sunday, though.  

It might have been a little alarming to see some severe thunderstorm warnings in central New York this morning.

After all, doesn't most of Vermont's weather come from the west and don't thunderstorms usually intensify during the afternoon and evening?

Well, yes, but this time, Vermont is largely safe. The storms are heading to the southeast and will miss Vermont. There might be rumbles of thunder for the rest of the morning, but nothing severe.

This afternoon, we'll get a break in the rain that' came down in the morning, but the weather will remain kind of cloudy and cool-ish.

We're still expecting a powerhouse cold front to come in early Sunday morning, but the timing of it means we won't have severe weather when it comes through, despite the unusually dynamic atmosphere over the Northeast and eastern Canada.

The cold front will bring in some gusty showers early Sunday, and then that second blast of cold air will come in.

It still looks nasty Sunday, with clouds, very chilly air for June and frequent showers.

Highs will barely hold in the 50s, which is 20 degrees below normal. Winds will gust to 30 mph. The rain will not come down particularly hard, but the showers will be frequent, especially in the mountains.

Not nice.

I also think it's going to snow atop Mount Washington again. Boy, they're having a snowy June, huh?

I'm still expecting the weather to slowly improve during the upcoming week. We'll just have to get through the weekend.

Snow In Vermont In June? Could Be Wednesday Night

Chances are snow will fall on Vermont Wednesday night. In June. 

OK, it probably won't look like this in Burlington, Vermont
Thursday morning, but the tip top of Mount Mansfield
could be white with snow. This photo is from a large
snowstorm in March, 2011. on

Don't worry, this won't be an 1816 Year Without A Summer general snowfall across most of the state.

But the highest mountain peaks could be white come Thursday morning.   

If Mount Mansfield gets snow, it will only be the fourth time that happened in June there since they started keeping records up there in 1954.

The culprit is a big shot of cold air, very unusually cold for this time of year coming in from Canada and setting up as a deep pool of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. 

Basically it's a big storm that's high above the Earth's surface, but not down here.

This whole thing is a redux of that spring pattern we had in April when we had bouts of unusual chill parking over New England.

The cold will be introduced today in the form of a strong cold front and possibly some strong or even a few scattered severe thunderstorms in New England, including Vermont.

 The temperature in the air high above is already crashing. Meanwhile, it's not cold yet down here. Plus the sun is as strong as it gets this time of year.

That means that as the cold front comes in, it'll set off some thunderstorms. The contrast between the warmth surface and the chilly air aloft will help some of the thunderstorms to billow up into strong ones.

That means a few places will get small hail and gusty winds. A couple places in Vermont, especially the eastern half of the state will get a severe thunderstorm, which could bring damaging wind gusts of 60 mph.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across pretty much all of New England and a slightly higher risk of severe weather in central New England.

Then the cold air plunges in. High temperatures across much of Vermont and the rest of northern New England will only get into the 50s Wednesday, Thursday and probably Friday.

On the bright side, it will be too cloudy for frost at night in most places, though there could be some frost and freezes in the cold hollows of northern Vermont Friday night. 

It should be in the mid-70s this time of year. High temperatures in the 50s are normal for April. 

It will be pretty cloudy as well. That strong June sunshine will heat the ground feebly, causing rising air. That means lots of clouds, many scattered light showers and that risk of snow showers on the mountain peaks.

This cold wave is going to last a long time for early June. Three days in the 50s will probably hurt your tomato and pepper plants. Those veggies crave sunshine and warmth, which we won't get for awhile. (They'll probably bounce back later in the month, when and if it gets warmer.)

This weekend, it will turn a tad warmer, but still be quite a bit cooler than normal, with highs only in the 60s to near 70.

This cold wave is probably payback for May. Each of the last nine days in May had high temperatures of 80 or more, the longest such streak on record for that month. 

The heat continued into early June, as four of the first six days got to 80. 

It won't be 80 degrees again for quite awhile. Enjoy autumn in June, I guess. 

Record Low "High" Temperatures Chill The Hell Out Of Us Vermonters

Overcast skies like this over St. Albans, Vermont
Friday contributed to record low maximum
temperatures the past couple of days.  

Think it's been awfully chilly in northern New England the last few days?

You're totally right.

The nights, actually, have only been moderately colder than normal, but we've had some remarkably chilly afternoons the past couple of days.

The damp, cold weather is all the more hard to deal with because it came so abruptly. Daytime temperatures had been consistently in the 70s and 80s across the region until Friday.

Record low maximum temperatures were set both Friday and Saturday in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, Vermont as high temperatures struggled into the low 50s under cloudy, rainy skies.

Friday, Burlington, Vermont had a record low maximum of 56 degrees. Other cities, like Massena, N.Y. set similar records.

On Saturday, the summit of Mount Washington N.H. reported sleet and freezing rain. Ugh.

When a strong cold wave moves in, as it did this week, and the skies remain cloudy, the chances of getting a "low high temperature" are the best, and that's exactly what happened.

Normal high temperatures this time of year are near 70 degrees, not the low 50s.

Skies cleared briefly Friday night, allowing a view of the Northern Lights, and allowing temperatures in the cold valleys of northern New England to slip to 32 degrees or lower.

Today, skies will slowly clear over the Northeast. It will still be chilly, but temperatures with a little sun should be able to get close to 60 degrees, or at least upper 50s in northern New England and New York, so more record low daytime temperatures don't seem likely tonight.

But clear skies tonight mean what little warmth there is can radiate out to space. Frost advisories are up for all but the Champlain Valley of Vermont, most of New Hampshire, much of northern New York and for western Maine.

Cover up those tender plants you have outside, or bring them indoors this evening.

For those who like fall weather, it will stay cooler than normal the rest of the week across the Northeastern United States.