Another Weather Off The Rails Weekend (Not In Vermont, Though)

From 9 News:  A severe thunderstorm associated with a derecho
knocked this billboard down on a Denver building Saturday. 

As we forecasted yesterday morning, weather is definitely going off the rails in different parts of the nation this weekend, and that trend will continue for the next few days.

We here in Vermont will pretty much be an island of tranquility in the weather department, but that won't be the case elsewhere.

The most remarkable weather event Saturday was a long lasting derecho that got going near the Arizona/Utah border and raced north and northeastward during the day through the central and eastern Rocky Mountains and on into the western Dakotas.

Derechos are relatively rare events and almost unheard of in the Intermountain West. Yes, I know we just had a derecho in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week, but they still don't happen all that often.

On average derechos happen once every year or every other year in much of the Midwest and South. On the East Coast, you average one every four years or so.  In the Intermountain West, there have maybe been a handful over the past several decades.

The one that swept through yesterday was a doozy, too, judging by wind reports. Just a sampling:

110 mph near Copper Mountain, Colorado
94 mph Butte County, South Dakota
92 mph near Cactus Plateau, South Dakota
85 mph, Four Corners, Wyoming

There were numerous reports of gusts above 75 mph, including in metro areas like Denver.

Meanwhile, Florida got in on the action, thanks to Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Most of the heavy weather with this system was east of its center.  This mass of storms spun off at several tornadoes in Florida, including one that passed through Orlando.

The Orlando Sentinel reported that at least 50 residents of apartment blocks and houses were displaced near the city's downtown because of tornado damage.

MORE ROUGH WEATHER COMING

Tropical Storm Cristobal will splash ashore around Louisiana later today. Storm surges and flooding is already happening in Louisiana and Mississippi, and that will continue the rest of the day.

However, the bigger drama from Cristobal will come over the next few days, as its remnants head north through the Arkansas, Missouri and into Wisconsin by Wednesday.

It won't really be a tropical storm by the time it hits the Great Lakes, but it will manage to intensify. It'll form into a mean storm for this time of year over or near Lake Superior.  Expect reports of wind damage, battering waves and erosion on the lakes and maybe some flash flooding.

VERMONT CALM

All this weather action will pretty much miss Vermont. The fact that Cristobol will be going by to our west will give us a squirt of warm to hot, and windy weather midweek, but nothing extreme.  Not a lot of rain is in the forecast either.  A cold front associated with the remnants of Cristobol might bring a few showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Cristobal Not The Only Threat: Wind, Tornadoes, Fire Even Snow Out West

WPTZ-TV's web cam captured this lightning strike at around 2:30
this morning over Plattsburgh, N.Y. Thunderstorms roamed through
northern New York and northern Vermont early this morning, bringing
much needed rain.  Hat tip to WPTZ meteorologist Ben
Frechette for posting this one. 

The weather headlines this weekend are dominated by   which is forecast to make landfall late Sunday night in or near Louisiana.

Storm surges three feet deep or more are expected in much of coastal Louisiana, and heavy rains will add to flooding woes.  The wind won't really be the problem. The water will be the issue.

As bad as that all sounds, it's the Rocky Mountain states and the western Plains that have even more action this weekend.

They'll have it all. Depending on where you are, wildfires are possible, so are strong winds not associated with thunderstorms, blowing dust, thunderstorms, possible tornadoes and even a snowstorm in a spot or two.

A strong cold front associated with a powerful upper level low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest are causing all this havoc.

Ahead of this storminess, strong south winds over the New Mexico and the High Plains of Colorado will gust to 65 mph.  This could cause some tree and power line damage. It could tip over high profile vehicles on highways.

Worse, it could make any wild or range fires in New Mexico and Colorado spread really quickly and become dangerous.

Further north and east, when you get up into South Dakota, the threat today will be tornadoes and dangerous supercell thunderstorms that will throw down huge hailstones and wicked straight line winds in some spots.

The highest chances of tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds is over central South Dakota today.  The higher chances of damaging hail are more toward the Black Hills, where a hail storm the other day caused a lot of damage in and around Rapid City, South Dakota. 

The threat for severe storms and tornadoes continues tomorrow for northern South Dakota and the eastern half of North Dakota.

Heading back to Colorado and Utah, the problem up in the mountains today is not too little rain, like in the Plains east of Denver, but too much.  The strong cold front out there will set off some thunderstorms with heavy rain.

That'll trigger flash flooding, especially in a lot of those narrow slot canyons in Utah.

Up in Idaho, they're actually bracing for a snowstorm.  The National Weather Service in Pocatello said accumulating snows could reach all the way down to valley floors in towns like Stanley.  Some areas can expect several inches of snow.

All this is an extremely busy weather pattern for early June.  Severe storms and tornadoes are relatively common, as are flash floods this time of year. But this variety of weather, from winter weather, to tropical storms, to high winds, fires and those tornadoes, is pretty wild for what is generally a relatively mellow time of year in the weather department.

Up here in Vermont, we're missing out on the extremes, which is OK.  Thunderstorms blustered through northern parts of the state early this morning. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans captured  0.55 inches of much-needed rain from the early morning storms. Burlington only got 0.04 inches as the storms mostly missed them.

Scattered showers and storms will continue today and this evening, off an on, as a series of weather fronts and boundaries move through.  Any thunderstorms that get going today should not be severe, but a few might be gusty. Eastern and southern New England have a slightly better chance of a few strong to severe storms today.

After a cool Sunday and Monday, it will warm up to summertime levels again by mid-week.  I'm not sure it will hit 90 again. It did manage to get that warm in Burlington Friday.  We've already had three days this year that have gotten to 90, which is at least half our normal alotment for the entire summer.

On average, most 90 degree days in Burlington hit in July and August.

Flooding Worries Throughout Northeast. And Snow Again! (Don't Worry, Not in Vermont)

Areas in yellow might get enough rain to cause flooding today
and tonight. Any flooding in Vermont is likely to be
localized and not extreme. Still, don't drive through
flooded roads!

UPDATE 1 PM THURSDAY

The special weather statement from this morning that told us Vermont could end up dealing with a little flooding today has been upgraded to a flash flood watch.

The watch means that rapidly developing floods have the potential to occur this afternoon and evening.

Rainfall is even heavier than anticipated, with a large zone of heavy rain over central and northern Vermont as of 1 p.m.

We have several hours at least of occasionally heavy rain to get to. Some places in the North Country have already gotten nearly an inch of rain, and another one to three inches is on the way.

Where the heaviest downpours set up, flash flooding could easily occur. In the general area of moderate to heavy rain coming through, there are pockets of torrential downpours that could lead to flash flooding just about anywhere, especially north of Route 4.

Local flash flood warnings, meaning flooding is already happening or imminent, have been issued in parts of New York, with these warnings popping up further and further east as the rain continues in that direction.

Not far from the Vermont border, a flash flood warning is up for areas around Lake George and Bolton Landing, New York.

Don't drive into flooded roadways and seek higher ground if you get a flash flood warning or see water rising quickly.

Not everybody will get a flood out of this and it's not another Hurricane Irene, but still, take it very seriously.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The wet, wet year of 2019 continues on pace today, with a widespread zone stretching from Ohio and West Virginia on up through most of New England under the gun with a flood threat today and tonight.

Here in Vermont, where it's been a little drier lately than surrounding areas, the flooding, if it occurs, won't be as widespread or deep as elsewhere.

The larger rivers like the Winooski and Lamoille will probably rise sharply, but not go over their banks.

Since there will likely be locally heavy rain, there might be some flooding of small streams and creeks and in fields. Of biggest concern to most of us will be the risk of water ponding on roads and local urban sreet flooding.

And there's the risk that, as is so often the case with heavy rain in Vermont, sewage treatment plants will be overwhelmed, sending pollution into the rivers and ultimately Lake Champlain. Too many sewage treatment plants take waste from both buildings and storm sewers. When gushes of water go into street drains in heavy rains, that's where the trouble starts. Pretty icky, huh?

Generally speaking, most of us will get one to two inches of rain and most of that will come down between noon and midnight. The reason that there might be some local flooding is that in some places, there might be a torrential downpour thrown in that would dump a lot of rain in an hour or two.

It will dry out pretty quickly Friday, with just scattered light showers amid (temporarily) cooler conditions.

FLOODING WORSE ELSEWHERE

Many areas outside of Vermont, especially to our south and west, stand a greater chance of flooding than we do. And that flooding in many cases would be much worse than the minor stuff we expect here.

Vermont, especially the north, have been far enough away from a stalled weather front this week to avoid much rain. But that front has been stalled to our south, dumping heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic States and westward into Ohio and Indiana.

Flooding is already taking place this morning in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Many of these areas are at risk for more heavy rain today. Not good.

Already this morning, there has been flooding in and around Philadelphia and adjacent New Jersey, with people stranded on at least one highway because of flooding. I-295 in Bellmawr, New Jersey was blocked by flooding, backing up traffic for miles.

During the course of the week, the relentless rains will continue in places like Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas, where it has been basically pouring since March. The rain won't be as extreme as it was earlier this spring, but it will be enough to worsen or cause new flooding in some spots in that region.

SNOW AGAIN!?!?!

OK, the Summer Solstice is tomorrow, but somebody didn't get the memo in the northern Rockies.

Winter weather advisories, of all things, are up some high elevations above 5,000 feet in Idaho and Montana. Roads through mountain passes might get two to six inches of snow tonight, with six to 13 inches higher up in the mountains. Yikes!