Tornado Risk Today And Coming Week In South; Flood Concerns Here In Vermont

Tornadoes, some possibly strong, are expectd in the South today,
especially in the red-colored area. The threat spreads east and north
on Sunday.

As advertised, today looks like a dangerous day in parts of the South, especially in Louisiana and adjacent parts of Mississippi, southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.

Here in Vermont, spring appears to have finally sprung, but that brings some flood risks. I'll get to that after we deal with the bigger weather news of the day.

The focus today is on the Gulf Coast. As of now, the table looks set for a tornado outbreak in this region. Some of the tornadoes look like they will be strong and stay on the ground for long periods of time.

It's always possible that there could be pleasant surprise and the atmosphere might not line up perfectly for severe storms and tornadoes. But most forecasters are pessimistic.

Already, early this morning, an intial band of thunderstorms, some severe, were heading north through northern Louisiana. Once they clear out, that will set the stage for even worse storms later today.

A tornado watch was already up early today in southwestern Texas. At least one supercell thunderstorm was already roaming that region before dawn, which gives you an idea how much potential there is for trouble.

The energy helping to produce those storms is heading northeast.  Most of the ingredients for a lot of tornadoes are setting up in Louisiana. The air is unstable. The sun will heat the atmosphere and worsen that instability.

Strong winds will blow overhead, and those winds will change direction with height. Let's just hope the bigger tornadoes that do develop stay out in open country and not through any bigger towns.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe weather and tornadoes moves east and expands to a broad area mostly along the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to Florida. High winds, hail and tornadoes are all possible in this area, especially in parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast.

The bottom line is that a large chunk of the southern United States better have their weather radios close at hand, and have a plan to get to a safe spot if a tornado warning is issued.

Normally the rule is, if there's a tornado watch, that means twisters are possible, and you should continue your routine but keep a sharp ear out for any warnings. A tornado warning means a twister has been spotted or indicated on radar, and you'd better get to a safe shelter, pronto.

With the risk of larger tornadoes this weekend, I'd advise people who live in less-sturdy mobile homes or manufactured homes, especially those that aren't tied down correctly, to take an even more cautious plan.

People who live in this type of house ought to play it safe and leave even if there's "just" a tornado watch. Just hang out at a friend's house, a friend who lives in a home with a very good storm shelter or secure basement.

The risk of severe storms and tornadoes will continue much of this week. After a lull on Monday and possibly Tuesday, another strong storm system looks poised to spin up more tornadoes across the South and middle of the nation Wednesday and Thursdays.

The parent storms that are spinning up these tornadoes will affect us here in Vermont. Not with tornadoes, which is a good thing, but with possible flooding. Details follow:

VERMONT RAIN

This motorist was tempted to take his
chances crossing a flooded stretch of
road during spring flooding in April, 2015
near Enosburg. He saw me filming and
decided he didn't want to be part of an
embarrassing YouTube video. He
wisely decided to turn around
rather than proceed.

It was gloriously the first truly spring morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont when I took the dogs out early this morning.

Temperatures were in the 50s, birds were singing like crazy and there was that delicious organic aroma in the air of springtime mud and new growth.  Tiny daffodil shoots shot up a couple inches more overnight.

A cold front was also making its way through Vermont, but since it's not a strong front, and we're starting off so warm, today will be the mildest day so far this year.

While highs in the 60s to a few 70s in the southern Champlin Valley and lower Connecticut River valley are not unusual for mid-April, they sure are welcome.

This warmth is now eroding and melting the deep snow pack still in the mountains. Next up, the storm that will produce the weekend tornadoes in the South is heading in our direction.

Rain will break out Sunday afternoon and continue well into Monday.  Rivers will be rising a bit even before it starts raining because of today's warmth. Add an inch or so of rain with the upcoming storm and more melting snow, and you'll have some flooding problems.

Which is why the National Weather Service has issued flood watches for Vermont and adjacent New York from Sunday night into Tuesday. 

I'll let the National Weather Service in South Burlington do the talking for a bit here. According to their hydrology discussion this morning:

"Some of the more susceptible basins include the Ausable, Missisquo, Passumpsic, Otter Creek, Winooski, Lamoille and possibly the Mad River. Sharp river rises are likely beginning Monday. Most main stem rivers are expected to crest during the day Monday based on current indications. Any mountain streams or small rivers will be very susceptible as well, especially Sunday night into Monday."

In other words, this is going to be a statewide problem.  In a few spots, the flooding might be had enough to force evacuations. We'll see. If told by emergency managers to get out because of flooding, absolutely do so!

One of the biggest and most persistent risks in flooding are those people who insist on trying to drive over flooded roads. Don't. Especially don't be one of those morons that drive around barriers put up because of the flooding.  This type of idiot then gets stuck, putting themselves and their rescuers at risk.

By the way, this time of year, flood waters are obviously very cold. If you get stuck in the water, hypothermia sets in wicked fast.

The next storm late in the week, the one that will bring that second round of tornadoes to the South Wednesday and Thursday, also looks like it will come toward New England. It's too soon to say how  that will affect things, but there's the risk of some more moderate to heavy rains with that one. If it does rain hard with the second storm, there could be a renewed flood threat.

That Blizzard In The Midwest Was Bizarre. Here's Why

If you look closely at this fresh-fallen snow in Mankato, Minnesota
Thursday, you can see brown from Texas dust blown into the storm system
Photo via Twitter, Mark Tarello @mark_tarello

Minnesota Public Radio is calling it the Tex-Mex blizzard.

In some parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, some of the snow that fell with the blizzard that hit the region over the past couple of days had a tan, brown or orange tint to it.

You couldn't use the phrase "pure as the driven snow" in this case.

The storm system was so strong that dust from New Mexico and Texas was drawn up from the south into the cold northern flank of the storm.

The dust mixed with the falling snow to produce the off-color snow. Voila! The Tex-Mex blizzard.

Hmmm. A mix of snow and dirt. I guess you can say it was snirting in Minnesota on Thursday.

Satellite images of the vast storm system showed winds gusting to 70 mph lifting huge clouds of dust in West Texas and propelling it northward.

This storm reminded me of the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. My late father remembered brown snow in Vermont in the 1930s as dust from the Great Plains came all the way to New England, mixing with the falling snow to give the drifts  a brown hue.

The National Weather Service/Twin Cities, Minnesota shared this
satellite image snowing blowind dust Wenesday over Texas that
drifted northward, causing brown snow in Minneota.

My husband Jeff grew up in South Dakota and he says he can remember a time or two when "snirt" fell - leaving a brownish wintry landscape. Still, this event was rare

There were other weird aspects of this storm. There is often thundersnow with this type of Plains storm. The parent system gets so strong that thunderstorms develop in the heavy snow bands.

However, this storm had an incredible amount of lightning, and there were reports of thundersnow with frequent lightning for two days.

The National Weather Service office in Aberdeen, South Dakota urged people to stay indoors there was so much lightning.

Severe thunderstorms are common during strong Plains systems like this one, but the severe weather almost always happen in the warm, moist air to the southeast of the storm's center.

In this case, there weren't that many severe thunderstorms in the warm sector. But very oddly, some severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail and gusts to 60 mph were issued in areas getting snow and sleet. That's very strange.  There were some reports of one-inch diamter hail in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

NEXT STORM OMINOUS

Areas in yellow, orange and especially red are at risk of severe thunderstorms
and tornadoes Saturday. Some of the tornadoes might be strong
and long-lasting. 

The next big storm system will develop tonight and tomorrow in Texas. This one looks more conventional, for the lack of a better word, than the last one with the "snirt" blizzard in the Plains. But this new storm seems much more dangerous.

As mentioned yesterday, this storm threatens a nasty tornado outbreak in the South over the weekend.  

If anything, latest forecasts up the chances of tornadoes, some possibly strong this weekend. The lower Mississippi Valley is the target Saturday, with the highest risk in northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. 

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes will spread into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast Sunday. It's Palm Sunday and churches will be busy. I'm no theologian, but I think God would want churches in these areas to have weather radio tuned in during services. God would also want congregations to have a plan to get to a safe area if a tornado warning is issued.

The storm system will reach New England Sunday night and Monday. Here in Vermont, it still looks like the storm could dump an inch or so of rain on us, and melting snow from the mountains will add to the runoff.

I suspect the National Weather Service will issue flood watches for the region that will go into effect Monday.

Yes, Blizzard Storm In Plains Is Bad. Next Storm Could Be Worse

Lots of colors on the National Weather Service map, especially in the
northern Plains means lots of weather alerts. The red area is under
a blizzard warning. An active weather pattern over the next
week means there will be plenty of other weather warnings
and advisories in different parts of the nation.

As expected, a blizzard is striking a broad area from Colorado to Minnesota today, closing roads, worsening flooding and generally just being dangerous and highly unwelcome.

This might not be the worst of it. A new storm expected to start forming in Texas Satureday is likely to cause more trouble from the Gulf Coast to New England.

Unlike the current storm, the next one is poised to bring a lot more in terms of severe storms and tornadoes to the South. It also poses something of a flood threat in northern New England.

The storm now pounding the northern and central Plains isn't set up to create much in the way of severe storms on its southern flank. That's a bit unusual for such a strong storm, but it is fortunate.

There were some reports of large hail and gusty winds in and around Kansas last night, and there might be some strong wind gusts with thunderstorms today in and around Illinois, but this won't be a blockbuster severe weather outbreak.

That's not to minimize the effects of this storm. It's serious, and will cause a lot of additional flooding, especially when the up to two feet of snow expected to accumulate in some parts of South Dakota and Minnesota melt this weekend and next week. Rivers in this region were already flooding before this storm, so ---- not good.

Then there's the next storm.

Areas in yellow and orange are being watched for the risk of
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms Saturday.

It's always hard to pinpoint well in advance if a weather system will cause a lot of severe weather and tornadoes, but the new storm forecast to form in Texas and move northeastward toward New England over the weekend has forecasters nervous.

There's at least the potential that rotating storms will form well east of the storm's cold front. That could mean a dangerous tornado outbreak in the Deep South Saturday and Sunday.

Of course, severe weather forecasting is tricky. The South might get lucky and escape a widespread outbreak of tornadoes, but this is perhaps the highest potential for dangerous weather we've seen so far this spring.

Tornado outbreaks can be more dangerous in the South than in the Plains, by the way. More people live in mobile homes in the South than in the Plains, and manufactured homes are more dangerous in tornadoes that more rigid buildings. The South is more populated than the Plains, so tornadoes have more targets.

Many people make the mistake of looking for the approaching tornado when they get a warning rather than immediately taking shelter. In the South, tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in heavy rain and thus invisible, compared to storms further west. Plus, there's lots of trees in the South, which blocks the view of approaching dangers.

VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS

Certainly there are no tornadoes in the Vermont and New England forecast anytime in the near future, but this weekend storm does pose potential trouble.

Let's break it down:

The giant storm now striking the upper Midwest will move into Canada by Friday night and drag a weakening cold front through Vermont later Friday night or early Saturday. This will just drop perhaps a quarter inch of rain, which isn't that big a deal.

There's not much in the way of cold air immediately behind the cold front, so Saturday will probably be the warmest day so far this year. Temperatures will probably get into the 60s for many of us.

The light rain Friday night and the warm temperatures Saturday night will "prime the pump" so to speak. Deep mountain snow will start to really melt, and elevate river levels.

Then the storm from the South comes in Sunday night and Monday and it will drag a lot of moisture up with it. We could get an inch or even more of rain out of this and the snow in the mountains will continue to melt.

That means we have our first real threat of the spring that rivers could go over their banks. Nobody is sure how serious the flooding will be or even if we will get any. Just note that roads and properties in flood plains could go under water Monday and Tuesday, so plan accordingly.

This won't be a Hurricane Irene style flood, if it occurs, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern looks very active for the next two weeks, with the potential for frequent rain storms. If that comes to pass, we'll have to watch Lake Champlain. Water levels in the lake are currently rising, like they do every spring.

As of this morning, the lake level was at 98.31 feet above sea level. Flood stage is 100 feet. Lake flooding starts to get damaging at around 101 feet, and there is the potential the lake could get that high in the coming weeks.

Again, it might or might not happen. And it won't be as bad as the devastation of 2011. But if you have lakeshore property, it's time to start preparing for possible flooding.

Winter Making A Huge National April Comeback. Here's Why

Ice from unseasonable freezing rain covers trees in St. Albans,
Vermont Tuesday afternoon.

For two days in a row, Monday and Tuesday, freezing rain fell on different parts of Vermont - in April!  Then many of us Vermonters woke up to a thin but real new covering of snow this morning.

In Quebec, things were even worse. The ice accumulated so thickly on trees and power lines that branches broke and wires snapped. More than 250,000 people, mostly a little north of Montreal and northeast of Quebec City, lost power due to the unseasonable ice.

There were reports of carbon monoxide poisonings from people using generators and house fires caused by candles lit to ward off the darkness.

Meanwhile, in northern Maine, it just keeps snowing and snowing, with more snow yesterday and last night, leaving more than two feet of snow on the ground in some areas.

And of course, there's that gigantic blizzard in the central and northern Plains, which might end up bringing record snows to some areas of Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota.

Geez! What happened to April?

Blame it mostly on something called the North Atlantic Oscillation,  or NAO. It's a weather pattern well known to meteorologists in the northern Atlantic Ocean and around Greenland that often has a big influence on the weather here in the United States and often in western Europe.

A schematic showing a NAO pattern. Note the high
pressure in red near Greenland. It's suppressing the jet
stream south, so that storms are centered
in California and New England, not further north.

The NAO flip flops between two phases. If it's in it's positive phase, there's generally low pressure over in the far North Atlantic and higher pressure further south in the ocean, in the eastern United States and often western Europe.

The opposite is called the negative phase of the NAO. In this case air pressure rises in the North Atlantic, suppresing the jet stream southward. It also tends to lower air pressure in the mid-latitudes of the United States and Europe.

That means we get who live in those mid-latitudes get cold and stormy weather. The more negative the NAO is, in general the worse it is for people in much of the United States or Europe. Or sometimes both.

The NAO is in a relatively intense negative phase at the moment. In the spring, the jet stream usually begins retreating to the north, and that's one reason it gets increasingly warm during this season.

The current negative NAO has stopped or even slightly reversed that northward seasonal trend in the jet stream. That means colder air can sneak further south into our neck of the woods. Storms are following the jet stream that's more or less over us. Parts of those storms can take advantage of that southward moving cold air and give us a winter redux, like many of us are currently experiencing.

In some ways, this current negative NAO is making things worse it might in the winter, when we'd expect it to bring us nasty cold snaps and snowstorms. Psychologically, it's always tough for most of us to endure freezing rain or snow when we're supposed to be outdoors in the sunshine, enjoying blooming daffodils.

Plus, it is spring, and you can't violate the laws of physics. The increased sun angle is warming the Northern Hemisphere. That warm air is fighting those cold conditions brought south in part by the negative NAO.

This state of affairs increases temperature contrasts over short distances.  A sharp temperature contrast like this can be one of several factors that create storms more intense than they otherwise would be. Or this state of affairs can create weather systems that are weirder than they otherwises might be.

A perennial bed in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens is yet to show
much activity this chilly April. Freezing rain yesterday and this
coating of snow this morning is not helping.

Part of the reason why the Midwest storm is so strong and that blizzard is because of a sharp temperature contrast.

 There's a difference of around 50 degrees over a 100 to 200 mile wide area near the storm. That is  one factor that will deepen the storm to possibly become one of the most intense on record for this time of year.

Thunderstorms in the very nearby warmer air in the southern part of the storm are feeding northward into the cold air, intensifying the snowfall in the blizzard zone.

This, and lots of moisture feeding north from the Gulf of Mexico into the storm, are leading to the intense rates of precipitation. Rain and melted snow in the already flooded central and northern Plains will probably reach two to four inches.

Here in the Northeast, the storms this week haven't been especially strong, but they have been weird. On Monday, temperatures ranged from the 20s in Maine, to the 50s in Massachusetts. At around 10 p.m. Monday night it was 56 degrees in New York's Central Park but 72 degrees in Newark, New Jersey, only 17 miles away.

This tight temperature gradient has been noticeable in Vermont the past few days, too. Late Tuesday morning, it was just below 32 degrees with freezing rain in the northern Champlain Valley but close to 60 degrees in Bennington.

By the way, we've now had freezing rain in two Aprils in a row. Although freezing rain has happened in other Aprils, I've personally never seen before this year and last. Especially not like Tuesday, when there was freezing rain in the early afternoon. With the strong sun angle, some radiation would have come through the clouds to melt it. But the cold air was too tough on Tuesday.

There are signs of hope, though, because spring is inevitable. The track of the storm causing the blizzard out west will mean some relatively warm air will briefly make its way into Vermont Friday and Saturday, bringing temperatures to near 60 degrees. That's not unusually warm for this time of year, but I'll take it.

Another storm on Monday that I feared would bring us a snowstorm might go a little further west than initial forecasts. If that happens, we get mostly or all rain, not snow.

Any particular phase, either positive or negative, can last for days, weeks or even months.  A negative NAO lasting for an entire season has given us some memorably harsh winters.

This particular negative phase of the NAO won't last months. It is already showing signs of reversing itself, or at least becoming more neutral later this month. That would also help open the door to more springlike weather.

Or at least we hope

Major Plains Storm Update: They're Screwed

The destroyed Spencer Dam in Nebraska after epic flooding in March.
A massive storm producing a blizzard and areas of heavy rain
will make ongoing flooding worse in the northern and central
Plains starting this week and continuing at least into next week,
and probably beyond that. 

The forecast for that major, possibly record-breaking storm in the Plains is coming into more forecast, and to say the least it spells major trouble for these already flood-wrecked areas.  t

A broad area in the western half of Nebraska, extending diagonally through central South Dakota into western Minnesota is under a blizzard warning as forecasts call for up to two feet of snow and winds gusting to 50 mph.  

On the southeast edge of this massive storm, mixed snow and rain, or just plain rain.

A broad area encompassing most of South Dakota, the northern half of Nebraska, and large parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota are going to get two to as much as four inches of rain, or the equivalent of that in snow.

In places that do get a lot of snow, it will start melting rapidly when the sun comes back out this weekend. That's true even if temperatures stay below normal behind the storm. "Below normal" in mid-April is still well above freezing during the day, and the strong April snow will eat into the snow pack.

Many rivers in this region are still in moderate to major flood stage from the big storm in mid-March and the ongoing snow melt over the past three weeks. This includes parts of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.

In the southeastern part of the storm zone, where there will be more rain than snow, the flood impacts will be almost immediate by Thursday. Then, next week, water from melting snow will move downstream, worsening flooding along the James, Big Sioux, Little Sioux and other midsized rivers. That water will find its way into the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.

Even farmland that doesn't flood is in deep trouble. It's  too wet to get equipment into the fields and spring progresses, and this will make the fields even soggier. And keep them wet much further into spring.

The flooding over the past month has caused well over $1 billion in damage and farm losses. This will make the situation much, much worse.

Long range forecasts also call for generally above normal precipitation across the middle of the nation for the rest of the month.

SEVERE WEATHER

As mentioned yesterday, a casual glance at how the storm will look on weather maps suggests a major tornado outbreak. This is not to be.

The storm will cause severe weather and probably a few tornadoes here and there, but the atmosphere isn't quite coming together for major tornadoes, which is obviously a good thing.  A small area of northern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska is under the gun for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two tomorrow.

On Thursday, the hail, wind and isolated tornado threat shifts to Illinois and Indiana. But again, there's always severe weather in April. This aspect of this giant storm will not be the historic part.

However the storm's cold front will hang up near the Gulf Coast and a new storm system will form along it. This new storm won't be nearly as intense as the one in the Plains tomorrow and Thursday.

However, this new, second storm has the potential to unleash quite a few tornadoes in parts of the Southeast. It's surely not definite yet, but it's something to watch.

That second storm could spell real trouble for us in Vermont, too. The first storm, the one unleashing the blizzard in the Plains, will send a cold front through New England later Friday with showers, but nothing extreme.  Just the usual April showers.

But that second storm has the potential to dump a late season snowstorm on Vermont. Of course, the track and intensity of this storm is wicked uncertain right now. Even if it were to score a major hit on us, temperatures will be on the borderline between rain and snow.

Just keep in mind, there's the chance - JUST the chance - that we might get one last nasty winter blast. Stay tuned on that one.

Giant New Storm To Bury Plains In Snow, Worsen Flooding, Spin Off Severe Weather

An intense storm is forecast to move across the middle of
the nation toward Wednesday and Thursday.

A most unwelcome storm is forming, one that will unleash a blizzard in the northern and central Plains, worsen flooding, possibly spin up some tornadoes and just generally make a nearly coast-to-coast pain of itself this week.

Like all of these storms, this one will affect us here in Vermont. But as usual, it thankfully won't cause
as dire a situation as it will in the middle of the country. I'll get into more New England details further down in this post.

The storm, or at least its ingredients, have already dumped heavy rain on Oregon and is spreading snow through parts of the Rockies.

By Wednesday and Thursday, this storm will really crank up to become something similar to that infamous "bomb cyclone" last month that touched off all that flooding in Nebraska and surrounding areas, and brought an intense blizzard to Colorado.

This storm probably won't be quite as strong as the one last month, and in many ways it's a classic April storm. Often, a strong storm will unleash a late season blizzard in the northern Plains and cause severe weather further south. So this system is part of the usual early April playbook.

The problem is, the storm will be a stronger than the usual April storm.  Not the strongest on record, but pretty close to it and impressive nonetheless. Worse, it will also dump rain and heavy snow on precisely the areas in the middle of the nation hit hardest by flooding. Some parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota can expect up to two inches of rain or melted snow with this one.

A blizzard looks like it will unfold  from Wyoming through much of the Dakotas, northern Nebraska and on into Minnesota and Wisconsin  Winter storm watches are already up for much of this region Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas might get more than a foot of snow, propelled by wind gust going over 50 mph. Farm country is going to suffer again.

That snow will have to melt eventually. Which means the flooding will worsen and last longer than it otherwise would have.

South of the storm, there's worries of severe weather and possible tornadoes from Kansas to an area around Illinois and Indiana. It's too soon to say how widespread this outbreak might be. So far, at least, it looks like not all the ingredients are coming together perfectly to create a mega-tornado outbreak, which is great. Still, this has to be watched.

Moreover, the storm's cold front will get hung up near the Gulf Coast, and a new storm will form in the Southeast toward the weekend. That one also has the potential to create its own severe weather and tornado outbreak.

NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS

The last vestige of what was a four foot tall snowbank melts
in the rain this morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont

For the past two weeks or so in Vermont, it's been relatively dry with no spikes of very warm spring weather. That has meant the seasonal snow melt has been pretty orderly and uneventful, which of course is a good thing. 

It looks like as of today, we've started a much more active pattern, which means we'll have frequent bouts of rain or even wintry precipitation for the next three weeks. Two of those systems will get us even before the big storm from the Plains arrives Friday or Saturday.

So far, none of these storms seem big enough to touch off any really serious flooding, but of course Lake Champlain will continue to go up as the mountain snow melts and the rain keeps falling. I am almost sure it will reach its 100 foot flood stage later this month. How much it goes above that level remains to be seen, but luckily I very seriously doubt it will come close to the record, destructive levels of 2011.

An initial storm is producing rain this morning, which will taper off to low clouds, drizzle and scattered showers this afternoon. Rainfall totals look from this look like they will be around a half inch, give or take. It's not very warm out, so snowmelt from the mountains isn't that extreme. Bottom line: No flooding today.

Another modest storm will come through tomorrow afternoon and evening with a quarter inch of rain or so. It'll go over to snow tomorrow night in many locations in central and northern vermont. A lot of places will wake up Wednesday morning in a similar fashion to this past Saturday morning. That is to say many of us will have a slushy coating of snow on the ground, and mid and high elevations wil clock in with a fresh one to three inches of snow.

When large storms like the one in the middle of the nation reach us, we tend to get relatively minor effects, and in this case, it seems to be shaping up that way. Things could change, but right now, we seem poised to get a squirt of rather mild air Friday ahead of the storm, and a batch of showers will come through Friday night and Saturday.

It's too soon to say how much rain will come from this one.

I mentioned the light snow expected in northern Vermont Tuesday night. Which makes me want to talk about northern Maine and its never-ending winter. It's just incredible up there.

Caribou, Maine has had at least an inch of snow on the ground every day since November 10.  They are coming close to breaking the record of most consecutive days with an inch or more of snow cover, which was in the winter of 2002-03.

The storm that is giving Vermont rain today is dumping snow on northern and central Maine, and winter storm warnings and advisories are up. More snow is due with tomorrow's storm. Friday and Saturday's storm look rainy in Maine, so some snow will melt, but there's an awful lot of it up there to get rid of.

There was still 23 inches of snow on the ground in Caribou as of yesterday. The snowfall for the winter up there so far is 158.5, with another six inches or so on the way over the next couple of days, as noted.

So, if you're complaining about our rather chilly, reluctant spring here in Vermont, thank your lucky stars you're not in Caribou.

Glacier Collapse Sends Tourists Fleeing

A glacier collapses into water in Iceland recently, setting off a huge
wave that sent tourists scrambling for safety. Nobody was hurt. 

Tourists often go to Iceland to see the natural beauty of this Arctic, North Atlantic island. One of the draws are the beautiful glaciers which often calf off into the water.

One group of tourists recently almost got more than they bargained for. One spectacular thing to watch is when the end of a glacier breaks off and falls dramatically into the water. If you get too close, though, it can get dangerous.

Now, forgive me for giving you a salad of alphabetical letters here, but Icelandic locations are notoriously difficult to spell. The video you'll see below took place on March 31 in Jokulsarlon lagoon, part of the Breioamerkurjokull glacier.

Tourists watched as pieces of ice fell off the glacier. Then a big piece fell off, hitting the water and basically causing a localized tsunami.  Everybody had to run for their lives. Spoiler alert: Everybody got out of the way in time and nobody was hurt. The group of people had been previously briefed by tour guides on what to do if a wave approached.

By the way, this video isn't part of a climate change screed, though Iceland, like many parts of the Arctic are affected by global warming. The types of ice falls you'll see in the video are quite normal, with or without climate change.

The type of glacial calving, as it's called, is fairly common in Iceland this time of year, but the one in the video is larger and closer to shore than usual. I love the loud roar the event caused.

Here's the dramatic video: