Too Buried In Snow To Post; Talk To You Later

Believe it or not, I've been out there shoveling for
two days in St. Albans, Vermont. As you can
see, I've got nothing to show for it. 

The storm accumulation from this storm since Tuesday morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont is now 18.5 inches.

I have not been able to keep up with the shoveling. (Much of this has been heavy and wet) Some parts of Vermont are now up to or over 30 inches of snow with this long storm. Just incredible.

I'm so buried I have no time to post this morning. Just expect a little more light snow today. Winter to continue for quite awhile yet.

I'll post more when I'm done shoveling or drop from exhaustion, whichever comes first. (If I were you, I'd put my money on exhaustion.)

Take care out there!

Wednesday Afternoon Update: The Snow Just Keeps On Coming

I showed you a pic of my back deck this morning, but
now it's even more buried because of snow sliding off
the roof and additional accumulations of snow. 

As expected, it's been snowing all day in most of Vermont, and the accumulations are getting crushing.

At my house in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont, the storm total was up to 12.5 inches as of 4 p.m. today. That's less than many areas have gotten, but it's still a wicked pain.

The snow is rather wet and heavy and difficult to move. And as I said, it keeps coming, so the shoveling is getting extremely old.

Winter storm warnings remain up for the western half to two thirds of Vermont. Pretty much only the Connecticul River Valley below St. Johnsbury is exempt from this. Most of the Adirondacks remain under the gun, too.

Storm totals continue to impress and get more impressive. At last report, Graniteville, in central Vermont was up to 29.5 inches new. Williamstown has 24 inches new. Westfield is up to 22 inches.

A side note: At the bottom of this post, you'll see Elsa from "Frozen" come to the rescue.

In most of Vermont, except the Connecticut River Valley, expect another three to eight inches of snow by 8 a.m. tomorrow, with locally higher amounts along the Green Mountains and on the western slopes of those mountains.

The snow is getting downright dangerous. Big avalanches are fairly rare in the Vermont mountains, but can happen when there is a layer of icy snow, followed by big accumulations of wet or powdery snow, which is the case now.

Today, six U.S. Army soldiers were injured in an avalanche around Smuggler's Notch, Vermont as they were conducting mountainneering training. At least five of them were taken to a hospital, television station WCAX reported. It's definitely unusual to have such a dangerous avalanche in Vermont, so that tells you something. This was also the second avalanche in that area this week.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont took the unusual step today of warning back country skiers and riders to be extra cautious in the Green and Adirondack mountains over the next few days as the risk of more avalanches continues. 

I'm only partly dug out this afternoon in St. Albans,
Vermont as the snow relentless continues to fall

Power outages have diminished since this morning, but with more snow loading on trees tonight, there might be additional problems.

This evening's commute, and tomorrow morning's will probably be tricky once again.

The snow will finally, slowly wind down tomorrow, but some accumulation will continue, especially in those Green Mountains and western slopes. Actually, the mountains could pick up a few additional inches Friday and maybe Saturday.

As noted this morning, the weather is going to trend colder, so most of it will stick around for quite awhile. High temperatures will not get out of the 20s this weekend and the first part of next week.

And, yes, we're still looking at the possibility of yet another nor'easter next week that has the potential to dump a bunch more snow on us here in Vermont. It could still miss - it's a long way away, but the risk is still there and we have to watch it.

Now for something completely different, here's a man dressed as Elsa from "Frozen" pushing a police van out of snowbank in nor'easter-wracked Boston. I'm  not making this up:

Nor'easter Snowstorm Unexpectedly Crushes Vermont With Snow

It doesn't look like I'm going to go outside and enjoy
my back deck at my St. Albans, Vermont house anytime
soon as the snow continues to pile up.

Especially for a nor'easter that a few days ago was expected to give Vermont a glancing blow at worst, we got crushed with snow

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday morning, it was still snowing and some parts of central Vemont were already closing in on two feet of new snow. East Barre reported 24.9 inches of snow, Wolcott has 21 inches new and several places are at around a foot and a half.

Even the Champlain Valley, which was only expecting a few inches, will probably go over a foot by the time this is over.

Here in St. Albans, where I live, the storm total was 9.5 inches by 8 a.m. this morning, and it was still snowing steadily. Burlington has clocked in with ten inches of fresh snow.

Totals are impressive in southeastern New England, too, but that was more expected. Even so, the storm overperformed there as well. In Massachusetts, Uxbridge received 27.8 inches; Milford got 26.6 inches, and Billerica received 25.6 inches. North Foster, Rhode Island received 25.1 inches.

Maine and New Hampshire got slammed, too. Danville, New Hampshire reported 27 inches, Rochester and Wyndham, New Hampshire reported 25.5 inches ,and in Maine, 23.5 inches came down in West Newfield and Limerick.

It's not over yet. In southern New England, the problem will be heavy local snow squalls that will bring another very quick one to three inches in some spots, and cause the kinds of sudden whiteouts that lead to highway pileups.

Here in Vermont, we've got quite a bit more snow to get through yet. It will snow all day and tonight in most areas.  Expect at least another three to six inches of snow by tomorrow morning, and weather advisories have been upgraded to a winter storm warning in western Vermont today and tonight.

I imagine quite a few places will get more than six inches of fresh powder between now and this time Thursday morning. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a foot of additional accumulation in parts of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks.  

Just know that roads are bad. You can also expect some scattered power outages due to snow loading on trees.

And in those western slopes and mountain summits, the snow will continue on Thursday.

So yeah, this is unexpectedly epic.

It gets worse in the fact that it's going to get colder, and we're going to get back to normal January conditions by the weekend. That means daytime high temperatures staying in the 20s when normal highs this time of year are around 40 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper single number and teens.

All this means the snow isn't going to go anywhere for quite awhile.

More "good" news: It's possible another nor'easter could affect us toward the middle of next week. This is by no means a certainty. It could still easily miss. But we said that about the storm we're getting now. Bottom line: No guarantees, either way.

This is shaping up to be similar to last year. By March 1 of both 2017 and 2018 most of the snow in Vermont had disappeared after record warm temperatures in February. Then in March, heavy snows arrived.

It will be interesting later this week when the National Weather Service office in South Burlington comes out with its latest spring flood outlook.

The last one, issued two weeks ago forecasted a normal to below normal risk of spring flooding. Soil moistures were high, but snow cover was well below normal. If there's not much snow to melt, the risk of flooding is low.

Now, there's a lot of snow. Especially in the mountains The snow depth and water content of the snow in the mountains at this point isn't setting any record highs, but it has increased substantially.  (The snow depth at the summit of Mount Mansfield went from 47 inches on March 1 to 76 inches this morning.)

The far southern Green Mountains and the Berkshires have especially heavy snow depths and water content in the snow.

Last year, spring flooding in and around Vermont turned out to be scattered and minor when the snow finally melted. This year, who knows? If there are a lot of warm rain storms in late March or April, we could have problems. If things melt pretty gradually, no worries.

But we'll worry about that later. Right now, it's snow, snow, snow. Careful on the roads today, tonight and tomorrow. And keep watching that snow pile up.

Late Tuesday Afternoon Nor'easter Update: Storm As Predicted, But A Few Surprises

Lovely in Norwell, Massachusetts today. Photo by
Steven Senne/AP

UPDATE: 6:30 p.m. Tuesday:

The winter weather advisory in Vermont fron the Green Mountains east   has been upgraded to a winter storm warning, in effect until 8 p.m. Wednesday.

This storm is over-performing and the snow accumulations are looking like they will deeper than expected everywhere in Vermont and eastern New York.

This seems especially true in the eastern half of Vermont.  Snow is locally heavier than many of us thought. At 6 p.m., heavy snow was reported at Montpelier.

Snowfall as of 6:30 p.m. has already gone well past expectations in the Green Mountains and points eastward. East Montpelier has been clobbered by 13.5 inches of snow already. North Wolcott has already reported a foot of snow. Ten inches has already come down in Elmore and East Orange.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont says these areas are in for another six to nine inches of snow by Wednesday evening. These will be pretty damn impressive snow totals.  Especially since the center of the nor'easter passed so far east of New England. Usually, when that happens, it would be a non-event here in Vermont.

In western Vermont, the winter weather advisory remains in place, but still, four to eight inches of additional snow, is expected by Wednesday night. There might even be a little more than that in the far northern Champlain Valley and in northern New York.  Boy, this is quite a storm

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Once again, eastern New England is reeling from a big nor'easter as of late this Tuesday afternoon.

Bad conditions are about to start waning in southern New England, but were still going full tilt late this afternoon in coastal New Hampshire and Maine.

Some impressive stats are coming out of southern New England. 

Here are some snow reports as of 4 p.m. And remember, these aren't final totals. It's still snowing, and not all reports have come in yet.

Framingham, Mass: 23.3 inches
Milford, Mass: 20.0 inches
Killingsly, CT., 18.3 inches
Foster, Rhode Island: 17 inches.

Winds along the coast overperformed as well. Here are some gust reports:

Falmouth, Mass.: 81 mph
Hyannnis, Mass: 79 mph
Nantucket, 77 mph.

A mess in Falmouth, Mass today.

Needless to say, there are many, many reports of power failures and downed trees across eastern New England. 

Snowfall reports have been highly variable. A couple slow moving, narrow, intense bands of snow formed during this storm on the western edges of this storm. One parked itself a little ways inland over east-central Massachusetts, which explains the snow reports out of Framingham and Milford.

Another one set up along Interstate 91 from a little south of St. Johnsbury, Vermont all the way down through Connecticut. Through most of Vermont, the band wasn't super intense, but did enhance snowfall today.

Especially in the far southern Green Mountains, which got it again today. Halifax, Vermont reported 18 inches of snow and Newfane clocked in at 16 inches as of late this afternoon.

Mount Snow, the southern Vermont ski area, had received 10 inches of new snow by mid-afternoon today, bringing the total over the past seven days to 50 inches new.

Elsewhere in Vermont, the snow was mainly light as expected, with widespread reports of two to five inches of new snow as of around 3:30 p.m. today.

In parts of the Green Mountain State, the snow has picked up a little bit in intensity in many areas. As the sun goes down, the bit of solar radiation coming through the clouds is diminishing, so snow is now starting to stick better.

If you are not home from work yet late this Tuesday afternoon, expect some slick spots on the roads.

Generally light snow will keep coming down across Vermont through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some of those somewhat heavier snow bands might set up overnight somewhere over the area, but they won't be nearly as intense as those earlier today in southern New England.

Mount Snow Ski Area in southern Vermont received 10
inches of snow today so far, with 50 inches of new
snow logged in the past seven days. 

It's hard to say where, and even if these somewhat heavier bands of snow set up overnight, but some areas could get bullseyed by heavier accumulations than surrounding areas.

I'm thinking most places in Vermont will see another three to six inches of new snow between now and 8 a.m. Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts.

Your Wednesday morning commute will probably be kind of dicey, so give yourself extra time for that.

As noted, further accumulations are likely during the day Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially over northern Vermont. Most places look like they'll get another two to six inches of snow during this time periods, with higher amounts in a few places in the north.

Which means that many places in Vermont will have slowly picked up at least of foot of new snow between early this morning and Thursday. We're back into deep winter, aren't we?

As noted, this morning don't count on a lot of melting of this snow through next Tuesday at least, even in the valleys. Temperatures will stay near or below normal through then. Most days through next Tuesday will feature sub-freezing high temperatures.

Here's how the blizzard looked in Hull, Massachusetts today:

As Expected, Nor'easter Blasts East, Vermont In For Long Haul Snow

Satellite image this morning of the third
beastly nor'easter in three weeks
here in New England

As of 8 a.m. this morning, things were going downhill quickly in eastern New England, as expected, with the latest big nor'easter behaving pretty much as expected.  

It started out as rain early this morning in southeastern New England, but now the temperature has dropped, the wind has picked up and snow has the snow.

The snow down there is wet and heavy, at least for now, so they can expect more big time power failures. There were already reports of up to 40,000 power outages in Massachusetts as of 8:30 a.m.

As the snow intensifies in eastern New England, nobody should be out driving.

Once again, the coastline is taking a beating. This morning's high tide will bring more flooding to places like Scituate and Plymouth. It looks like the ocean side of Cape Cod, Nantucket Harbor and the east side of Nantucket are going to be hit hard.

There's already been incredible beach erosion on the east side of Cape Cod and Nantucket from the previous two big nor'easters. This is just going to make matters much worse. Massachusetts is literally smaller in area than it was back in February.

The snow was just beginning to move up into New Hampshire and Maine as of 8 a.m. this morning.

All of eastern New England from Rhode Island to Maine can expect 12 to 18 inches of snow out of this, with local amounts to two feet. The snow will come down at a rate of one to three inches per hour at times with this.

As this photo shows, heavy, wet snow was already affecting
trees and power lines in eastern Massachusetts, and the worst
of the storm was only just arriving. 

Winds gusting to 60 mph along the coast and the heavy snow have meant the blizzard warnings remain in effect along the immediate Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine coasts, including the cities of Boston, Portsmouth, New Hampshire and Portland, Maine.

Gusts of 65 mph have already been reported in Edgartown, Massachusetts

I'm sure they're getting tired of this repeated rinse and repeat destruction cycles along the coast and in the big cities of southern New England.

HERE IN VERMONT

Yep, it's snowing again. As expected, the snow won't come down hard for most of this, but it will keep snowing, and snowing, and snowing, and it will eventually add up.

In far southern Vermont, bands of heavier snow from the main nor'easter look like they might reach that area.

That's bad for the higher elevations of the southern Green Mountains, which have been thumped by both of the past nor'easters with one to three feet of new snow each time. Another foot or more could come down with this one.

Car crashes were already closing roads in Massachusetts
early this morning. 

For the rest of us, especially in northern Vermont, some areas will probably close in on a foot of new snow as well, but it will take until Wednesday night or Thursday to get there.

We're on the western edge of the nor'easter, so steady light snow today will accumulate to about two to four inches today.

Then, another two to five inches comes down tonight, then probably many areas will get two to four inches more on Wednesday as the storm spins around northeast of us. So you can see how that adds up to six to 12 inches.

More snow, especially in the northern mountains, will continue Wednesday night and Thursday, with additional accumulations.

Also, I hope you like snow. The trend will be toward colder temperatures, so there won't be any real thawing to speak of through at least next Monday, and probably beyond that. And, guess what? There's the possibility - only the possibility at this point - of another nor'easter sometime next week.

Monday Evening Nor'easter Update: Still A Blast East, Vermont Updates

While eastern New England gets blasted by blizzard
and near blizzard conditions Tuesday, the nor'easter
will cause a long-duration, light snow event in
Vermont. Expect five to 10 inches most places
from early tomorrow morning into Wednesday.
More relatively light accumulations will add
to the total late Wednesday through Thursday. 

Just a quick Monday evening nor'easter update: Steady as she goes with the general forecast for the latest nor'easter that's coming in late tonight and especially tomorrow.

Here are the principal changes:

Along the immediate southern New England coast: Winter storm warnings have been upgraded to blizzard warnings.

The combination of snowfall rates of one to three inches per hour combined with winds gusting as high as 65 mph will cause some blizzard conditions.

As I said this morning DO NOT drive to places like Boston, Portland, Maine or Providence Rhode Island tonight or tomorrow.

Travel will basically be impossible in that neck of the woods. The worst of it there will be Tuesday morning into early afternoon, but it will be scary all day.

Most of eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine can expect 12 to 18 inches of new snow out of this, with local amounts up to two feet.

More coastal flooding and damage seems likely along the Massachusetts coast, especially during the Tuesday morning high tide. Astronomical tides aren't big this week, but the strength of this big nor'easter will still cause big problems, especially since the coast is so vulnerable from the damage left by the previous two nor'easters.

Most of Vermont continues to look like it will be on the western edge of this storm. Steady snow will develop south to north and continue all day Tuesday. It won't snow all that hard in most places, but this will last quite a long time -- lasting into Wednesday.

Generally speaking, most of Vermont will get six to ten inches of new snow between early tomorrow morning and Wednesday morning. Most of the time, the snow will come down lightly, so for most of the state, a winter weather advisory will do. Somewhat more dire winter storm warnings don't seem like they are needed, except in far southern Vermont, where snowfall Tuesday will be a little heavier.

Light snow will continue through Thursday, especially in the north and mountains of Vermont, which will mean additional accumulations. It will be somewhat colder than last week, so don't expect much melting during the days like the warmer valleys experienced last week.

No real thawing is expected until at least Sunday.

Monday Morning Nor'easter Update: Eastern New England Slam; Vermont Impacts

Here's just one forecast for the amount of snow from
the upcoming storm through Wednesday. Anything
in shades of orange is over eight inches. There's
a chance this forecast might be overdoing the
amount of snow in parts of Vermont and New York. 

Here we are, the start of another week, and the discussion turns to...surprise! A big nor'easter.

It's the third biggie in 10 days here in New England, and this one will probably be just as wild as the other two during the day tomorrow.

I'll give you the headlines first and then delve into the details:

1. In Boston parlance, this one on Tuesday is going to be a "wicked pissah" in eastern New England with very heavy snow and strong winds.

2. Although the storm surge with this nor'easter won't be tremendous, because astronomical tides are pretty low this week, the New England coast is extremely vulnerable to nor'easters due to damage from the previous two storms

3. Just as in the last two nor'easters, the impact in most of Vermont won't be as great as points further east. (Yes, I know the last nor'easter really buried southern Vermont) However, the Green Mountain State is still in for a long, long period of snow which will gradually accumulate to decent depths.

THE DETAILS

The overall forecast scenario for this nor'easter's path and strength has changed very little since Sunday, though there's still some questions of the storm's exact track, which will affect how badly any particular area gets.

As the storm gathers, winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories extend from Kentucky, through the Virginias into much of North Carolina. A winter weather advisory extends all the way to the North Carolina coast, as an inch or two of snow will accumulate there this evening

By the way, snow on the North Carolina coast is pretty rare, but not unheard of, for mid-March. The developing nor'easter is still expected to head off the Carolina coast tonight in an east-northeast direction, then turn almost due north.

Snowing ard in Boone, North Carolina early this
morning as the next nor'easter gathers. 

The storm will pass east of Cape Cod during the day Tuesday as a "bomb" meaning it will be intensifying quickly.

At this point at least, this track puts much of the eastern half of Massachusetts, and most of Maine and New Hampshire in the "sweet spot" for snow, with most places in that region getting a good foot of snow. A few places could close in on two feet.

There will be a lot of wind with this as well, so blizzard conditions could develop in eastern New England Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in eastern New England end up under a blizzard warning tomorrow.

Winds on the Massachusetts coast could gust as high as 65 mph amid all this. Bottom line: Don't drive to Boston or Portland or places like that tomorrow. Like I said. Wicked pissah.

Here's an interesting tidbit: In Portland, Maine, three of the top 10 biggest snowstorms have occurred on March 13-14 over the years. This storm there might go in the Top 10, making it four such monster storms on this date.

As I said, the tides during this storm won't be tremendous. But the sand dunes are missing from many vulnerable coastal places in New England, thanks to the last two storms. The dunes would have gradually been at least partly replaced through normal processes over the next several months, but they haven't had a chance to with these repeated storms.

The lack of dunes and the existing damage on the coast means communities there risk further damage from what would otherwise by minor coastal flooding and splashover from waves. Beaches, already badly eroded, will take another nasty hit from this one tomorrow.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like the last nor'easter, this will be a fairly quick hit in southeastern New England. Not so in Vermont.

During the nor'easter's trip past New England tomorrow, Vermont will be on the western edges of the snow shield. Expect a general two to six inches of new snow across the state on Tuesday, with maybe a little more than that in far southern Vermont. The least snow will fall to the west.

So it won't be like March 13-14 of last year, when western Vermont was bulldozed by a blizzard that dropped up to three feet of snow.

However, like the nor'easter last week, this one will get hung up in the Canadian Maritimes will slowly weakening over time Tuesday night through Friday.

That means lots of mostly light snow will continue through Thursday night. Over time, the snow will become most focused across the northern part of the state and along the spine of the central and northern Green Mountains.

When all is said and done, total snow accumulations from late tonight through Thursday night could easily exceed a foot in parts of northern Vermont, especially the high elevations.

It will probably be windier and colder than last snowy week, so expect some blowing and drifting as well.

CAVEATS:

If this storm goes a little further east than forecast, the snow in Vermont will be even lighter on Tuesday than currently forecast, but we'd still get that lingering light snow Wednesday and Thursday.

If the storm tracks a little closer to New England than forecast, obviously snowfall in Vermont would also be heavier than forecast. If there's a more westward track, eastern Vermont stands the greatest chance of being hit harder than forecast.

OUTLOOK:

The weather pattern looks to remain active basically for the remainder of March. It's impossible to pick out the details of what will happen with each storm, but overall, the chances that it there will be rain or a mix with subsequent storms is rising, as the storm track might go more inland. Also, the baseline temperature is warming up as we head into spring, making rain increasingly likely at the expenes of snow.