Big Snows Not The Biggest Threat From Upcoming Stormal

I seriously doubt coastal flooding will be as
bad as in Superstorm Sandy in New Jersey, shown
here, but there is a threat of coastal damage
with this upcoming nor'easter. 

The East Coast is still gearing up for one of those blockbuster nor'easters that tend to get us weather geeks excited, the populace panicked and snow lovers rejoicing, or cursing if the snow misses.

Of course, the forecast is still tricky, and everybody is trying to pin down exactly who gets the most snow, the most wind, the most tidal flooding, that sort of thing.

I think forecasts for the nature of the storm will get a little more precise, accurate and certain later today. That's because the main initial weather disturbance that will cause this storm is coming ashore over the United States West Coast.

That will enable weather instruments and meteorologists to get a more detailed and complete assessment of what's going on in the atmosphere. It's easier to measure such things overhead on land, than it is when things are still over the remote Pacific Ocean.

The forecast for the storm will still end up being imperfect, as they always are for nor'easters, but at least by the end of the day we'll have higher confidence as to what's going on.

Already, winter storm warnings were up this morning for parts of Kentucky and Tennessee due to a smaller, initial storm rolling through ahead of the main action coming in Friday.

A wide area from the Ohio Valley to much of the Appalachians and East Coast are indeed due for a pretty big dump. Some areas in the central Appalachians and parts of the Middle Atlantic states could end up measuring the snow in feet, not inches.

While up to three feet of snow is certainly a big deal, if it materializes, this isn't the only threat from this likely upcoming storm. In fact, the snow isn't even the most serious threat, though it's the aspect of the expected nor'easter that's getting the most attention.

Much more worrisome is the good chance this storm will bring on some serious coastal flooding and coastal erosion. Secondary threats also include damaging icing, the threat of severe weather and possibly tornadoes, flooding, and of course, the snow.  

Forecast maps are still showing a strong nor'easter
on the East Coast Saturday.

Let's break it down:

COASTAL FLOODING

This storm might ultimately be remembered more for its coastal flooding and damage than the snow it will probably dump.

The storm will come along this weekend when the moon is full, which means tides will already be higher than usual.

The barometric pressure in this storm, when it's off the Mid-Atlantic coast, is forecast to be quite low. Such low pressure means the air isn't pressing down on the ocean so much, so the water can expand upward. That would contribute to higher tides, too.

The counterclockwise flow, from the east, will mean strong winds will blow over large expanses of the western Atlantic Ocean and push the water toward the East Coast, further increasing tides.

Add to that the fact that sea levels have risen a bit due to global warming, so the starting point from which the ocean water will rise and potentially cause flooding is that much higher.

While it's still uncertain how bad the coastal flooding might end up being, forecasters are getting concerned.

Yesterday, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, in southern New Jersey said this storm might bring one of the Top Five highest tides on record, and suggested people with coastal property prepare now.

In New York City, some forecasters feared the tide might become as high as it was during Hurricane Irene in August, 2011. Irene wasn't as bad as Superstorm Sandy a year later, but Irene still flooded parts of Lower Manhattan.

Again, nobody is sure how bad any coastal flooding might be, but it's definitely something to watch

SEVERE WEATHER

As the storm begins to get it's act together near and north of the Gulf Coast Thursday some severe thunderstorms and possibly even tornadoes could break out. If that happens, the best chance is in Louisiana, western Mississippi and maybe southern Arkansas.

As the storm moves east, there's an uncertain chance of more severe weather in Florida. That prospect is iffy since they'e already had enough with the tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and damaging winds over the past week or so.

ICE AND FREEZING RAIN

There will be a transition zone between the heavy snow to the north and rain to the south and east as this storm gets going along or off the Carolina coast.

It looks like there could well be a zone of freezing rain -- maybe a lot of it -- in the Southeast. I'm not sure yet, but the best bet looks to be in much of North Carolina. Maybe southern Virginia, too. There is a chance that enough freezing rain will accumulate in some areas to bring down lots of trees and power lines.

Forecasting ice storms this far in advance is particularly tricky. This IS something to keep an eye on though.

FLOODING

As it's developing the storm will dip down toward the Gulf of Mexico (as I noted in the severe weather section above) When it does that, it will pick up boatloads of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Nor'easters tend to also draw a LOT of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean as they develop. Waters just off the Eastern Seaboard are much warmer than normal. That means the storm will be able to draw even more moisture into its system than normal, since warmer water is more easily drawn into weather systems.

That opens up the possibility of flooding in southeastern North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.

It's been an incredibly wet winter in that section of the country, so it wouldn't take much to set off some flooding.

That said, although flooding is always dangerous, this will fall well short of a mega flood disaster, like the one that struck South Carolina last fall. 

SNOW

Yes, we have to talk about the snow. Remember how I said in the flooding section that the water off the East Coast is unusually warm, and the storm can thusly draw in more moisture than usual.

When that big moisture load hits the cold air north and west of the storm, the snow would become particularly heavy. That's why everyone is so excited and panicky over this potential storm. Because the snow could come down harder than it does in a "normal" nor'easter.

The first winter storm watch for heavy snow with this storm was issued for much of West Virginia. You'll see those watches and alerts spreading a lot during the day today and tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised to see isolated snow totals of up to three feet in the mountains of West Virginia, western Virginia and maybe North Carolina.

The National Weather Service office in Washington/Baltimore appeared ready as of mid-morning to issue a blizzard watch for later Friday and Saturday. 

In some areas, the snow will be wet and heavy. And possibly mixed with freezing rain. That would cause widespread power failures in the most affected areas. Again, it's too soon to pin down precisely who gets the most snow, who gets the dry, powdery snow, and who gets the more dangerous wet and heavy stuff that knocks down trees and power lines.

Sorry, northern New England snow enthusiasts.
It's still looking you''re going to miss out on
the upcoming nor'easter, but you did get a bit of
snow yesterday, as seen in this photo taken
Tuesday morning in Colchester, Vermont. 

There are snow lovers here where I live in northern New England. Miracles can happen, but it still looks like northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine are going to sit this storm out

Southern New England is going to be living on the edge. I'd hate to be a meteorologist in places like Massachusetts and Connecticut right now. The northern edge of the precipitation is going to have a sharp cut off between heavy and light.

If the storm goes literally just 20 miles north or south of where it is forecast to go, areas in southern New England that are forecast to get light snow could get dumped on, or areas that are forecast to be buried could get next to nothing.

By the way, if, on the day before a nor'easter, you forecasted it to go 50 miles west or east of where it actually goes, you've still done an excellent forecasting job with these notoriously fickle storms. It's nearly impossible to get the path right within a margin of 20 miles.

There's still going to be a lot of updates on this storm as forecasts become more refined.

As I noted yesterday, there's a lot of hype out there. And a lot of information to digest, just in this blog post alone.

If it looks like you're going to get hit with this storm, just relax, chill, make whatever preparations local forecasters tell you to make. And then ride it out at home where you're safe and warm - unless you're right along the coast.

A few places might end up getting a truly memorable storm, we'll have to wait and see. But it's winter, not the end of the world. So enjoy the ride.

"Meteotsunami" Hits Florida: A New Weather Word Explained

The effects of a meteotsunami along the
Adriatic Sea in 2008. 

During the tornadoes and severe storms that hit Florida early Sunday, something called a "meteotsunami" hit the Gulf Coast city of Naples.

Add that to the list of isoteric meteorological terms getting batted around, like Polar Vortex or El Nino or Arctic Oscillation.

A tsunami, as most of us know, is a huge flood of waves and water caused by an undersea earthquake or landslide.

A meteotsunami, as the name suggests, is caused by a meteorological or weather situation.

An intense squall line connected to a strong storm system approached Naples from the Gulf of Mexico very early Sunday morning.

The squall line abruptly reduced the air pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which allowed water levels to rise, note Kris Mattarochia, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Miami, according to the Naples Daily News.

Very strong winds associated with the squall line also helped make water levels rise and shove that high water to the coast. (Note that the wind gusted to 85 mph in Naples when the squall line came through.

This push of high water coincided with high tide, resulting in coastal flooding in downtown Naples and surrounding areas, the Naples Daily News reported. However, the most extensive damage in and around Naples was due to the wind with the squall line.

Numerous buildings and trees were trashed by the gusts.

Meteotsunamis are more common than you'd think. Some famously came ashore in Florida during hte epic Superstorm of March, 1993. A bad one hit Daytona Beach one day in July, 1992, injuring 75 people and damaging about 100 cars.

Storm chaser Jim Edds took a series of photos showing a meteotsunami striking Panama City Beach, Florida in March, 2014. Watch:

 d David Ross, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

The arrival of the squall line to Southwest Florida at high tide caused flooding in downtown Naples and the damage seen in Golden Gate and other areas of the county.

At the Naples Municipal Airport, winds were recorded as strong as 85 mph.

Ross said wave height reached 7.36 feet, which was more than 5.5 feet above the predicted level for the day. Meteotsunamis occur a few times a year and are more common with systems that come across the Gulf, he said.

According to NOAA, in the United States, conditions for destructive meteotsunamis are favorable in the Gulf of Mexico, along the East Coast and in the Great Lakes. One notable meteotsunami in Florida took place in July 1992 in Daytona Beach. A 10-foot wave crashed ashore shortly before midnight, causing injuries to 75 people and damaging property and 100 cars.

Big Nor'easter This Weekend: Facts Vs. Hype

Quite a few areas in the eastern United States
 might look something like this by the upcoming weekend
because a nor'easter is now expected for the region. 

By now, a lot of you have heard rumors about a big nor'easter that will be The End Of The World Snowpocalypse, if you believe the hype and the people trying to get more and more social media clicks for fun and profit.

The truth is, that yes, it looks like parts of the East Coast are in for a big nasty snowstorm, and it could get fairly wild in spots. But DON"T count on everyone from Florida to Maine to be covered in 80 feet of snow or something.

Let's just get into what we can tell you with any scientific and realistic basis:

WHAT WE KNOW:

It looks almost certain there will be a strong and strengthening nor'easter along or just off the East Coast starting Friday and into the weekend.

It's quite likely somebody is going to get a lot of snow.  At this point, it looks like the Mid-Atlantic states are in for the heaviest accumulations, but that could change.

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say West Virginia, Virginia, parts of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey might get the most snow out of this.

Those areas could easily get a foot of snow, and two feet of snow in some areas in that region are not out of the question. Again, that could change as the track of the storm becomes more certain.

At this point, it looks like the worst of the storm and most of the snow would miss northwestern Pennsylvania, northern New York, most of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. Again this could change. A few computer forecasting models do bring somewhat heavier snow further northwest into these regions. Others don't We'll have to wait and see how this plays out

In any event, don't cry too hard, northern New York and Vermont skiers. Today, the mountains in those states will get their third light to moderate snowfall since Saturday. The snow is coming in small doses, but it adds up.    

Here's a National Weather Service map
showing the expected strong nor'easter along
the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. 

If you live along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, listen to forecasts and coastal flood advisories.

Since the waters along and off the coast are abnormally warm, this storm could conceivably get stronger than even some forecasts indicate. That would mean the possibility of strong winds, high tides and battering waves

WHAT TO DO ABOUT THIS:

1. Watch: Continue to monitor forecasts if you live on the East Coast or in the Appalachians. I'd follow the National Weather Service or a local meteorologist or weather forecaster in your area that you trust. and know has a good reputation. Don't trust the social media hype machine.

2. Be Ready: Just in case, get ready but don't panic. This isn't the end of the world. It couldn't hurt to swing by the grocery store if you're low on food in the house. It might be tricky to drive to the store at the height of the storm in the worst hit areas.  If you're that type, it also wouldn't be the worst idea to stock up on wine or beer or hot chocolate or anything that makes you warm and happy in the winter.

3. Fuel: t also can't hurt to swing by the gas station to fill up your tank and make sure there's enough fuel to heat the house. The fuel delivery people aren't thrilled about going out in big snowstorms to make emergency deliveries.

4. Change Happens: Know the forecast is certain to change between now and when the storm arrives. That doesn't mean  meteorolgists are clueless. It means that nor'easters are notoriously tricky to forecast. Some small parts of every nor'easter forecast are wrong. Sometimes big parts of the forecast are wrong.

That means there's a chance that some areas now targeted for very heavy snow might not get it, and some areas outside the expected heavy snow zone might get more than we now think. Also, some areas along the coast could get rain or a mix involved, too.

5. Tis The Season: It's winter. Deal with it. Big snowstorms are part of the bargain during most winters, even in "warm" places like Virginia and Washington DC. Just be smart about it, don't take unnecessary chances on the roads, have some teenager shovel your driveway if you're heart is iffy and you're out of shape.

6. Attitude Is Everything: Enjoy it. If you get a big snowstorm and you don't like snow, there's nothing you can do about it. Except change your attitude. Download some very funny movies to watch during the snowstorm.

Have a snowball fight with the kids. Impress the neighbors with an immense snow sculpture. Let your dogs out into the snow, wait until they do something stupid in the drifts.  Take a video of their antics and put it on YouTube.

If you wanted a lot of snow and don't get it out of this storm, chill. There will always be new snowstorms later this winter, or next winter. Wait and you shall receive.

Joplin, Missouri Doing Amazingly Well Five Years After Tornado Blew It Away

When a terrible tornado hit Joplin Missouri in May, 2011
it seemed like the city would never recover from scenes
like this. But it did, big time. 

Five years ago this coming May 22, one of the worst tornadoes in American history destroyed a pretty big chunk of Joplin, a city of 50,000 people or so in southwestern Missouri.

The storm killed 161 people. Plus, with about 7.500 homes were damaged or destroyed, and at least 500 businesses were wiped off the face of the Earth.

 It seemed Joplin would never fully recover.

But it did. 

At least pretty much. And rapidly. Five years after the tornado, the city's population is even higher than it was the day before the tornado, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The city has more businesses than before the tornado.  

Joplin's population unsurprisingly dropped by 1.3 percent within a year of the tornado. The Post-Dispatch said many people predicted the population drain would continue indefinitely.

By 2014, three years after the tornado, 90 percent of the homes destroyed in Joplin had been rebuilt, television station KYTV reported that year.

One iconic image after the storm was the wreckage of Mercy Hospital, the major health care center in Joplin. The structure still stood, but its windows were blown out, and its interior turned to mincemeat.

It was destroyed.

Mercy Hospital was rebuilt in another location at a cost of $465 million. It's built to withstand winds of 250 mph. The tornado had winds of "only" 200 mph.

The remains of the Home Depot store in Joplin, Missouri
after the May 22, 2011 tornado. 

Also, a main commercial strip in Joplin, Range Line Road, was wrecked, most of the fast food outlets, big box stores, gas stations, honky tonks and small businesses shredded into unrecognizable pieces.

Now, it's almost totally back in business.

Some companies, like Heartland Pet Food Manufacturing, the parent company of Blue Buffalo dog food were so impressed by Joplin's resolve to come back from the tornado that they located new facilities in Joplin.

Heartland's move added 150 jobs to the Joplin economy.  I normally feed my two dogs Blue Buffalo, and Heartland's move to help Joplin's recovery inspires me to really continue buying Blue Buffalo food for Jackson and Tonks.

Kansas City University of Medicine and Biosciences is going to build a new campus in Joplin, took, in order to ease a doctor shortage in rural communities near Joplin, says the Post-Dispatch.

There have been bumps in Joplin's recovery, which is inevitable.  Joplin city officials hired a Texas-based developer, Wallace Bajjali, to lead the recovery effort, but that firm pretty much didn't do anything, says the St. Louis Post Dispatch. 

Grand opening of the rebuilt Home Depot in Joplin,
Missouri just seven momths after the tornaod. 

A judge orderd that firm to pay Joplin $1.5 million, after if failed to responded to Joplin's subsequent lawsuit. Wallace Bajjali has gone out of business, and they want the judgement against them set aside.

We'll see.

Still, everything is being replaced. The Arbor Day Foundation has helped replace no fewer than 26,000 trees blown away in the tornado, so as they grow, the city will once again have nice, tree-lined neighborhoods.

I'm sure deep scars remain in Joplin. The families of those 161 who died in the storm must still be feeling the losses acutely.

Joplin is in the heart of tornado alley, and a sense of deep dread must overcome the city every time a tornado watch or severe storm warning is issued.

Yet, the spirit of Joplin is incredibly healthy.

Well played, Joplin!

Breaking: Deadly Tornadoes, Severe Storms In Florida Overnight

The roof of this condo was blown off by a tornado in
Siesta Key, Florida overnight 

Bad news out of Florida this morning:

A storm system packing tornadoes and high winds ripped across central and southern Florida overnight late Saturday and early Sunday, and unfortunately, reports of death, damage and extensive damage are coming in.

Televison station WFLA said early this morning that two grandparent died and their four grandchildren were injured when a tornado destroyed their mobile home in Duette, Florida, not far from Sarasota.

The area around Sarasota and Siesta Key appear to have been particularly hard hit. Television station WTSP reports numerous injuries and rescues from people trapped in wrecked homes.

WFLA says a roof of an apartment complex was blown off in Siesta Key, and numerous homes were damaged.

Winds gusted to as high as 84 mph in Naples, Florida overnight.

Nighttime tornadoes like those that just occured in Florida are especially dangerous because people are often asleep and don't hear warnings to take cover in closets, bathrooms and basements when a tornado is approaching.

Tornado damage in Siesta Key, Florida this morning.
Image from WTSP-TV

Florida has been getting hit hard by rough weather in the past week. The community of Cape Coral suffered through two damaging tornadoes in the span of less than a week.

The rough Florida weather was not unexpected.

As early as last summer, with a record strong El Nino building, Floridians were told that they were especially at risk for tornadoes,  severe storms and heavy rains this winter.

Miami had its wettest December on record, and the city is having an extraordinarily wet January so far.

El Nino tends to encourage particularly energetic winter time storms across the Deep South, and Florida was in the path of these storms. So was Texas, when it had those deadly tornadoes in late December.  

The good news is the tornadic storms were moving off the coast of Florida Sunday morning, and no severe weather is forecast there for at least the next several days.

"Fire Hose" Aimed At Northern California

A representative map of an atmospheric rier.
That orange band coming across the Pacific Ocean
to the West Coast is a narrow band of intense moisture
that would produce, in the example given here,
torrential rain and flooding to central California.

Get ready people in northern California and parts of coastal Oregon.

The Pacific Ocean fire hose is ready to soak you down but good.  Expect inches upon inches of rain over the next few days.

Sometimes in the winter, a fairly narrow zone of fast moving storms aims at the West Coast. It looks like northern California and Oregon are in for it over the next week.

Some of the computer models are forecasting over a foot of rain over the next seven days. Some areas are likely to get two to six inches of rain just on Sunday in northern California.

I'm calling it a fire hose, as the weather pattern is basically a narrow, intense stream of deep moisture hittng parts of the West Coast. Meteorologists, though, call this an "Atmospheric River."

And that's pretty much what it is, a river. Except it's a narrow band of deep moisture in the atmosphere, not a literal river. Still, the amount of moisture transported in an atmospheric river hitting the West Coast can be ten times the flow of liquid water in the Mississippi River as it it approaches the Gulf Coast.

These atmospheric rivers hit the West Coast most winters. They're more likely when there's an El Nino, and of course we've got a strong one under way now. Which means I'm totally not surprised there is one expected in the next few days.

Atmospheric Rivers can come in various intensities, of course. They are sometimes good, as they are on average respondible for a third to a half of the needed winter precipitation along the West Coast.

They are sometimes bad, as you can imagine, because they can easily bring flooding and mudslides to  the West Coast.

The atmospheric river about to hit northern California and Oregon seems to be moderately intense, and is both good and bad.

Good, because it's putting another substantial dent in the California drought, especially for the northern half of the state.

Bad, because this one will put some rivers above flood stage and swamp urban streets whose storm drains can't handle the downpours.

Most dangerously, it can cause sudden and life threatening mudslides and debris flows, espeically in areas that had wildfires last year that stripped vegetation from the landscape. Note there were a LOT of wild fires in the region being hit by this atmospheric river, so, Not Good.

Though it's not going to happen this time, there is fear that one day, there will be a Super Atmospheric River that would overwhelm the levees protecting very flood prone Sacramento and surrounding areas.  If that ever happened, it could be a catastrophe on the scale of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.

Again, we're not expecting anything nearly that bad this time.

But you will see news and images of flooding and mudslides in the northern half of California and in Oregon over the next week.

Atmospheric rivers don't continue on across the United States. The mountains in the West tend to break them up. But the remnants of these almost always stir up new storm systems that cross the country eventually.

One such atmospheric river-spawned storm is likely to cross the southern United States next week, but that particular storm at this point does not look like it will be particularly strong or dangerous.

That Downslope Storm in Vermont Sunday In Video

Some guys clear a tree that had fallen onto a road
in Cambridge, Vermont during a wind storm last Sunday. 

I took a few video clips of that downslope wind storm last Sunday along the western slopes of Vermont's Green Mountains.

As is usually the case with this type of storm, the high winds were very localized.

On the way to the storm, I drove through Cambridge village, where the winds were light. But I could hear the wind in the distance roaring on the mountain slope

Sure enough, two miles down the road, once I got near the Underhill town line, things were howling.

This wasn't the worst downslope wind storm I've ever seen in Vermont. Winds probably gusted to just over 60 mph when I was there. The highest wind gusts I saw reported were 62 mph.

Previous downslope wind events, like in December, 2012, brought gusts of over 90 mph in a few places.

Still, such winds are pretty impressive. Especially when combined with rain, then sun, and rainbows!

Heres' the brief rough video I took from the little clips and snippets I recorded in the storm: