Good New On 2018 Tornadoes, But There's An Ominous Study About Them

The last known EF5 tornado - the most powerful possible - in the
United States was this twister in Moore, Oklahoma back in 2013.
The storm killed 24 people. The U.S. has gone more than five
years without an EF5 tornado, which is a very unusually
long time between such disasters. 

It looks like we are about to conclude an incredibly benign year for United States tornadoes this year.

Despite an uptick in tornado activity in the Northeast during 2018, the nation as a whole saw relatively few tornadoes, and this will quite possibly become the year with the fewest tornado deaths on record.

On top of that, we're just concluding a rare year in which there were no EF4 or EF5 tornadoes, which are the strongest possible. These tornadoes have winds of 166 mph or more.

Tornadoes with an EF4 rating will level well-constructed houses and toss cars around. An EF5 tornado would take those leveled houses and fling them away to oblivion.  Cars would be tossed 100 yards or more, and even extremely sturdy high rise buildings would be twisted and destroyed.

Needless to say, EF4 and EF5 tornadoes, and their nearly as strong companions EF3s, cause the most tornado deaths. There weren't many EF3's this year either. At last count, the nation had ten EF3 tornadoes.

There was one EF4 tornado in North America in 2018: An EF4 killed one person in Manitoba, Canada this past August. 

Still, 2018's lack of strong United States tornadoes contributed to the thankfully low death toll.

So far this year, only ten people have died in the United States in tornadoes. That would be the lowest toll since 1875, when they started really keeping track of such things. The current record for least tornado deaths is 12 in 1912, followed by 15 back in 1986, says the Weather Channel.

The nation has been in a bit of a tornado drought, and an especially thankful tornado death drought since 2012. The average number of deaths per year is 69. In 2018 and 2017 combined, there were only 52 deaths between the two years, says data from The Weather Channel.

The last year we had an average or above average number of tornado deaths was 2012, when 69 people died in twisters.

Of course, the famous tornado year of 2011 was tragically much worse. That year, 552 United States residents died in tornadoes, which is a tie with 1936 for the second-worse tornado year. Some 700 people died in 1925, mostly in just one super tornado.

Never mind science, we are overdue for a bad tornado year, unfortunately. It's just a matter of chance. You'll eventually get a bad roll of the dice.

This happened in the United States with hurricanes. We went eleven years from 2005 to 2016 without a major hurricane hitting the mainland U.S. Major being Category 3 or higher. That was an unprecedented. We'd never gone that long without a major hurricane.

Then came 2017 with Harvey and Irma, the first time since 1851 two Category 4 hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland. (And then we had Maria trashing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.).  This year brought hurricanes Florence and Michael.

Tornado activity can turn on a dime like this too. This aspect has little if anything to do with global warming. But it does beg the question: Does climate change influence tornadoes?

INCREASED TORNADO POWER?

A researcher, Dr. James Elsner of Florida State University, says one measure of overall tornado power in the United States is increasing.

The tornado drought in recent years notwithstanding, there hasn't really been a trend up or down in strong and violent tornadoes over the past several decades

Dr. Jeff Masters wrote about this recently in the Category 6 blog in Weather Underground:

"Tornadoes have been coming in bigger bunches with individual tornadoes being wider and staying on the grojnd longer, resulting in an increase in the destructive power of U.S. tornadoes averaging 5.5 percent per year since 1994."

I have to say I got a lot of pushback when I retweeted something on this a couple weeks ago. Meteorologist and business consultant Mike Smith correctly pointed to data that shows there seems to be a general trend toward fewer strong tornadoes (EF3 or higher) since 1954. However, Eisner's research didn't really say there are more tornadoes, just that there are more long-tracked, strong tornadoes during large outbreaks. 

The number of violent tornadoes has trended downward in recent
decades, but there are worrisome exceptions to this trend

So it's kind of how you parse the data.

Anyway, Masters in Category 6 goes on:  

"Eisner's study found that a given tornado is more likely to be strong or violent at night,  between 10 p.m - 4 a.m. and during the coldest months, between November and April. This counterintuitive result could be because there are fewer tornadoes overall at night and in winter, but tornadoes that do develop at these times are more likely to be in environments of strong wind shear, thus allowing their destructive power to be higher on average."

The above situation describes conditions in which there is a lot of instability in the air, which climate scientists say should increase in a warming world. However, another key ingredient for tornadoes is wind shear, which is wind that changes direction and speed with height. Climate scientists say wind shear should decrease overall with global warming.

The decreased wind shear would be most pronounced in the warmer months and less so during colder times of the year, so this fits well with Eisner's research, and what's been going on in the real world in recent years.

Four or five years do NOT make a trend, but there have been fewer tornadoes during the warmer months lately. Then again, there's 2011, so it's hard to draw firm conclusions.

It's possible climate change could make winter tornado outbreaks worse, but this is too preliminary for me to definitely go there. I want to see more research.

For now, I'll just go for a little of that dreaded wishcasting:  Let's hope that 2019 continues with the tornado drought.

All Those Gloomy Spring Days We've Had Are Good News

OK, folks, I've heard some of you complaining we've had maybe a bit more than our share of gloomy days here in New England so far this spring.


Yellow and orange areas on this map are still dry
or in drought. It's a lot less than it was a few months ago

Buck up! The timing of this precipitation was perfect to really ease the drought we were in last fall.

I had been worried that it would remain dry, and the drought would intensify this spring and summer, leading to more well failures, water shortages, crop problems and the like.

But at least here in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, precipitation has been above normal since February.

The U.S. Drought Monitor comes out every Thursday, and it will be interesting to see if there will be even more improvement in the Northeast in the past week when we get new data tomorrow.

As of last week, just over 22 percent of  the Northeast region, which extends from West Virginia to Maine, was in drought or at least abnormally dry.  . That compares to 70 percent of the region being dry at the end of December.

Severe drought in southern New England has gone away completely.

Here in Vermont, drought conditions are hanging tough in a small area in the mid-Connecticut River valley in and near White River Junction, but the rest of the state is fine.

Droughts are easier to break when leaves are not on the trees yet. Leafed out trees suck up a lot of water from the ground, all other things being equal.

During last night's mild showers, I noticed the trees in the Champlain Valley really started to show signs of green.

No worries, though. If rainfall remains near normal for the rest of the spring and summer, we'll have no trouble with drought.

In the short term, the next week or two, the weather pattern looks active, so chances are good we'll get more spring showers.

Even if eventually does turn dry again, at least we won't start out in the hole in terms of water supplies. Though I hope some steady drenchings keep hitting the White River Junction area.

So enjoy the sunny days, but rejoice in the rain, too. We still could use it. and it's good for all of us.

Western Rainy Season Starts Off With A Bang, Which Is Great News For Drought

Expected precipitation for the next seven days shows some rain
for most of California, with heavy rain in the northern
part of the state. Good rains - over an inch of it -
are likely in the Northeast, too, where it is needed. 

The West Coast rainy season has started out strong, which is a good thing because most of the region has been experiencing drought.

Drought or abnormally dry conditions that developed in Washington and Oregon over the summer have pretty much been all erased by a series of very wet Pacific storms that have crashed ashore in the past couple of weeks, and more is coming.  

The change in Washington State has been dramatic.

The U.S. Drought Monitor said 84 percent of that state was abnormally dry or in drought on Oct 11. As of October 18, only a little less than 8 percent of Washington State was abnormally dry, and as noted, more rain is coming.

Drought-weary California is getting into the act, too, but nobody is under the illusion the drought there will be erased any time soon.

Except in the northwest corner of California that is. In nearly 8 percent of the state, all in the northwest corner, the drought is over, says the U.S. Drought Monitor. That isn't much of California, but it's the most real estate in California that is drought-free since March, 2013.

Most of California is still in drought, with extreme
drought in central areas. But recent rains have been
slightly eroding the scope of the drought.  

Coastal northwestern California is in for a lot more rain this week, too. Maybe a foot of it in some places, which could lead to local floods and mudslides.

Some rain will likely extend all the way south in California almost to San Diego this week.

There won't be all that much rain south of San Francisco, but it will rain, and anything is welcome, especially in central California, which is still under extreme drought.

There's no way to tell if this good start to California's rainy season will extend through the winter. (Some indications are it won't)  

So there's no reason yet to celebrate the end of California's long, punishing drought, but every raindrop that falls, every snowflake that comes down in the state's higher elevations, is a gift.

Keep it coming.

Meanwhile, in the Northeast, which got some good drought denting rains and snows over the weekend, we're still expecting a fairly wet storm later Thursday and Friday, which will only help some more.

No Gigantic Tornado Outbreak On Tuesday Defied Forecast, But Don't Complain

A tornado near Howe, Texas Tuesday night.
There were far fewer tornadoes Tuesday than
expected, and that's a good thing. 

I suppose you can say the forecasts for the central and southern Plains was wrong for Tuesday.

I, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and lots and LOTS of other forecasters said there was a good possibility of strong, long-tracked tornadoes for that region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

There were none.

Oh sure, there were some smaller tornadoes, And lots of big hail and thunderstorms with destructive winds. And flash flooding.

For the record there were 13 preliminary reports of tornadoes Tuesday, 388 reports of damaging winds and 273 hail reports, so it was definitely a stormy day out there.

But there were none of the expected huge, photogenic but unwanted tornadoes that literally tear communities apart. If a forecast is going to be inaccurate, this is the type of inaccuracy I like.

True, municipalities closed schools and made other emergency preparations that might not have been necessary, but that's good practice.

Hordes of storm chasers looking for their dream tornadoes came away disappointed, and wasted money and time chasing nonexistent storms.

But those are the breaks! And there will be other tornadoes to chase. Possibly in the next few days, in fact.

Look at this way. Communities are not in ruins. Families are not mourning dead fathers, mothers, children, aunts, uncles.

As noted, there is the possibility of dangerous thunderstorms, and tornadoes daily for the next week in different parts of the country. Don't let your guard down in those areas.

In fact, on Wednesday, there was an outbreak of tornadoes. Not the worst ever, but still bad. There were 19 reports of tornadoes in an arc from Iowa through Illinois into western Kentucky.  One tornado touched down in the Omaha, Nebraska metro area Wednesday and caused damage.

So it wasn't all good news on the tornado front this week.

The lack of enormous tornadoes on Tuesday, while definitely a very good thing, highlights the fact that we still have a lot to learn about forecasting severe weather.

Forecasts have gotten much, much better, but we still can't forecast precisely where tornadoes will hit more than a few minutes or at most, an hour, before they strike.

And overall storm systems sometimes "over perform" dropping more, and more dangerous tornadoes than expected. And sometimes we get days like Tuesday, where it's not as bad as feared.

One preliminary look at what made Tuesday's forecast gratefully wrong was a subtle feature in the air mass over places like Oklahoma and Kansas.

You need massive updrafts as one important ingredient in the formation of supercell thunderstorms that produce tornadoes. That was certainly in place Tuesday. But there was a subtle layer in the atmosphere where the updraft wasn't as violently upward as expected. In fact, there was a little layer of sinking air in spots.

That might be one reason that tornadoes were stifled. And another lesson learned for forecasters.

The lack of tornadoes Tuesday just might have made forecasting future tornado outbreaks just a tiny, tiny bit better in the future.

Here's a video of a funnel cloud/tornado lurking behind a building in the Omaha, Nebraska area Wednesday:

Joplin, Missouri Doing Amazingly Well Five Years After Tornado Blew It Away

When a terrible tornado hit Joplin Missouri in May, 2011
it seemed like the city would never recover from scenes
like this. But it did, big time. 

Five years ago this coming May 22, one of the worst tornadoes in American history destroyed a pretty big chunk of Joplin, a city of 50,000 people or so in southwestern Missouri.

The storm killed 161 people. Plus, with about 7.500 homes were damaged or destroyed, and at least 500 businesses were wiped off the face of the Earth.

 It seemed Joplin would never fully recover.

But it did. 

At least pretty much. And rapidly. Five years after the tornado, the city's population is even higher than it was the day before the tornado, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The city has more businesses than before the tornado.  

Joplin's population unsurprisingly dropped by 1.3 percent within a year of the tornado. The Post-Dispatch said many people predicted the population drain would continue indefinitely.

By 2014, three years after the tornado, 90 percent of the homes destroyed in Joplin had been rebuilt, television station KYTV reported that year.

One iconic image after the storm was the wreckage of Mercy Hospital, the major health care center in Joplin. The structure still stood, but its windows were blown out, and its interior turned to mincemeat.

It was destroyed.

Mercy Hospital was rebuilt in another location at a cost of $465 million. It's built to withstand winds of 250 mph. The tornado had winds of "only" 200 mph.

The remains of the Home Depot store in Joplin, Missouri
after the May 22, 2011 tornado. 

Also, a main commercial strip in Joplin, Range Line Road, was wrecked, most of the fast food outlets, big box stores, gas stations, honky tonks and small businesses shredded into unrecognizable pieces.

Now, it's almost totally back in business.

Some companies, like Heartland Pet Food Manufacturing, the parent company of Blue Buffalo dog food were so impressed by Joplin's resolve to come back from the tornado that they located new facilities in Joplin.

Heartland's move added 150 jobs to the Joplin economy.  I normally feed my two dogs Blue Buffalo, and Heartland's move to help Joplin's recovery inspires me to really continue buying Blue Buffalo food for Jackson and Tonks.

Kansas City University of Medicine and Biosciences is going to build a new campus in Joplin, took, in order to ease a doctor shortage in rural communities near Joplin, says the Post-Dispatch.

There have been bumps in Joplin's recovery, which is inevitable.  Joplin city officials hired a Texas-based developer, Wallace Bajjali, to lead the recovery effort, but that firm pretty much didn't do anything, says the St. Louis Post Dispatch. 

Grand opening of the rebuilt Home Depot in Joplin,
Missouri just seven momths after the tornaod. 

A judge orderd that firm to pay Joplin $1.5 million, after if failed to responded to Joplin's subsequent lawsuit. Wallace Bajjali has gone out of business, and they want the judgement against them set aside.

We'll see.

Still, everything is being replaced. The Arbor Day Foundation has helped replace no fewer than 26,000 trees blown away in the tornado, so as they grow, the city will once again have nice, tree-lined neighborhoods.

I'm sure deep scars remain in Joplin. The families of those 161 who died in the storm must still be feeling the losses acutely.

Joplin is in the heart of tornado alley, and a sense of deep dread must overcome the city every time a tornado watch or severe storm warning is issued.

Yet, the spirit of Joplin is incredibly healthy.

Well played, Joplin!

Tornadoes Give U.S. A Break; Fewest Deaths In Over A Century

A large, strong EF4 tornado in Illinois, April 9, 2015. Strong tornadoes
like this were relatively rare in 2015 Photo by Charles Russell.

Unless a really nasty tornado outbreak gets going this month, 2015 might go down in the United States as the year with the fewest tornado-related deaths in more than a century.

As Dr. Jeff Masters' blog notes, there have only been 10 tornado deaths in the United States so far this year, with only three weeks remaining to go before 2016 arrives.

Every year brings a lot of tornadoes to the United States, but the number and severity of tornadoes has generally been subdued since 2012.

Masters says that a persistent ridge on the West Coast for the past three years has created a general northwest air flow over the middle and eastern parts of the nation for most of the past few years.

That weather pattern discourages big tornado outbreaks, so that's why there's been relatively few deaths from tornadoes.

Also, the strongest tornadoes for the most part did not plow through cities and towns and other population centers which helped. That's just dumb luck.

This won't last forever, of course. Deadly years are alwayts possible. Just look back to 2011, with a horrific 553 deaths, the most since 1925.  With El Nino influencing things now, the weather pattern could become more favorable for large, dangerous, deadly tornadoes in 2016.

But we should still at least hope the tornadoes that inevitably come to the United States, especially in the spring and summer, don't get too big, and avoid big towns and cities.

The Bright Side To Nation's Winter From Hell: Few Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms

A deadly tornado flings debris far and wide
in Moore, Oklahoma in May, 2013. So far in
2015 there have been very few tornadoes in the
U.S., but that could change later this spring.  

Snow deeper than an NBA player is tall in New England. Weeks of brutal subzero cold in the Northeast and Midwest. Destructive snow and ice storms in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Crushing drought in California.  

Yes, it's been a winter to remember in much of the nation, and I'm sure these extremes have caused billions of dollars in damage and economic loss.

But the weather pattern that brought you this nightmare winter had one big upside: It has so far prevented tornadoes and severe thunderstorms from forming.

As the tornado chase organization TVN Weather notes, this is the slowest start to a severe weather season in over a decade. It would have been the slowest on record if not or a few tornadoes in the South in the opening days of January.

Through Monday, there had been 28 preliminary reports of tornadoes in the nation so far this year, all of them pretty damn weak. By now, there is, on average, about 95 such reports, say Bob Henson and Dr. Jeff Masters, blogging about the situation at Weather Underground. 

The number of severe thunderstorm and hail reports is even more sparse in 2015. Henson and Masters say there had been 119 preliminary reports of severe winds nationwide as of Monday, compared to an average of 708 up to that date.

By Monday, there were only two reports all year of hail bigger than one inch in diameter. Usually by now there would have been more than 360 such reports.

So what's going on?

The persistent pattern has featured a flow of air from the northwest flow of air over the northern Plains and down into the eastern part of the nation.

That has prevented any big batches of warm, wet, unstable air from moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the United States. Such influxes of humid air are a key ingredient for severe thunderstorms and and tornadoes.

Since the weather pattern has stopped the hot, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico from invading, we haven't had much in the way of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

About now, the tornado and severe thunderstorm season in the United States begins to ramp up toward a peak in late April, May and June. On average, the nation is hit with about 80 tornadoes in March, more than 150 in April, about 275 in May and just under 250 in June.

The immediate outlook over the next couple weeks doesn't call for much in the way of severe weather. There is a minimal chance of some briefly severe storms or a very weak tornado or two in Louisiana tomorrow, but it won't be a big deal.

The weather pattern that gave the Northeast such a tough winter is set to return next week and stay put, probably at least into early April. (Sorry New England, that means more cold air and snow for you.)

With this set up, I don't expect much in the way of tornadoes and severe weather for the next couple of weeks at least.

Nobody really knows if the rest of the tornado season will be busy or quiet. There have been some years with very few tornadoes in March and early April, and then lots of strong, destructive twisters in late April, May and June. So you never know.

The last three years have brought some luck in the tornado department to the United States. The period 2012 through 2014 had the lowest consecutive three year total number of tornadoes of any period since at least 1950, says the Weather Channel. 

However, 2011 brought a spate of many large destructive tornadoes that killed hundreds of Americans, especially in Alabama and Missouri.

We can hope the number of tornadoes and severe storms stays low throughout 2015, but unfortunately, we can't count on that.

Good News: Nation Has Had A Three-Year Tornado Drought

Twin tornadoes rip through Nebraska in June. The mayhem
in this photo aside, 2014 will be the third year in a row
with fewer than the normal number of
tornadoes in the United States.  

Despite the Christmas week tornadoes in the South, and a possible tornado today in Georgia,  the year 2014 is going down as having among the fewest tornadoes in United States since at least the early 1950s.  

The two previous years also had a dearth of tornados.

Of course, you wouldn't think so, given some of the dramatic tornadoes in recent years, like the huge Moore, Oklahoma tornado in 2013 and the incredible double tornado that swept across part of Nebraska this past June.

But those are two of the highlights. The actual number of tornadoes is down. Way down.

On average, the nation gets about 1,260 tornadoes a year. So far this year, it's been closer to 900.

Most of the tornadoes that happen in the United States aren't those blockbusters you see on the news that destroy whole towns. Most of them are lower end, with winds of around 100 mph or less and don't last long.

Yes, they cause damage, but it's mostly in the form of damaged house roofs, broken windows, busted up barns and lots of toppled trees. It's stuff that makes the local news, but you won't see it on CNN.

There doesn't seem to be a hard and fast reason why the past three years haven't had many tornadoes. It probably has to do with chance more than anything else.

In 2012, as Capital Weather Gang notes, there was a big "heat ridge" over much of the nation that discouraged the moisture and the violent updrafts that create storms and tornadoes.

In 2013, there was a brief period in May, during which the Moore tornado hit, that was typical of the weather pattern that spawns tornadoes.

But that weather pattern didn't last as long as it often does.

In 2014, a chilly spring weather pattern discouraged tornadoes. Surges of hot, humid air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico into colder air to the north is a key ingredient for tornadoes. We had few of those hot surges during the spring and early summer.

Unfortunately, we shouldn't count on the lack of tornadoes to continue. The number of tornadoes changes greatly year to year.

And we've been unlucky in the tornado department in recent years, too. The year 2011 brought the largest single outbreak of tornadoes in the United States on record around April 27 of that year.

The 350 or so tornadoes between April 25 and 28, 2011 killed 321 people and featured a much larger than normal proportion of violent twisters.

The year 2011 also featured a massive tornado that destroyed large swaths of Joplin, Missouri, killing 158 people and injured more than 1,000.

As you can, the tornado drought is one kind of "dry spell" the nation can embrace.

This Weekend Might Be Best Of Season For New England Winter Sports

If you are into any northern New England winter activities outdoors, skiing, riding, snowshoeing, skating, whatever, this is likely the best weekend of the winter to do it.

Lynn Monty of the Burlington Free Press on Friday took
this beautiful photo of Mount Mansfield in Vermont
The photo helped signal the start of an almost
perfect winter sports weekend.  

Up until now, there was something "wrong" with the weather almost every weekend this winter.

There was too much ice. Or it was bitterly cold. Or there was a huge thaw. Or not much snow on the ground. Or the roads were bad.

Finally, now we're starting a "Goldilocks weekend" where it's not too hot, not too cold, snowy enough without being ridiculously blizzardy.

We got that fresh snowfall on Wednesday in much of the region, so conditions are good for just about any snow sport.

It's true the snow isn't particularly deep, but it is enough to cross country ski on. Plus, it's been cold for the past couple of weeks, so ski areas have been making snow, so the base depth is pretty good on the slopes.

The weather is cooperating, too. It'll be cold this weekend, but not extreme. High Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper teens and low 20s in the valleys, and in the single numbers on the high mountain peaks of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains and White Mountains.

Winds won't be too bad, either, especially on Sunday, when they will be relatively calm.

Some areas, especially in the mountains, got a fresh, light dusting of snow last night. I noticed there's about a half inch of new powder outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont this Saturday morning, and I'm better some mountain areas in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire picked up an inch or two.

Some sun will come out today. It'll be cloudier Sunday, with some snow showers around to freshen things up once again. It won't amount to much, maybe an inch or two in the mountains.

So it's a classic winter weekend in the North Country. Get out and enjoy it.

More Gorgeous Leaf Peeping Weather In Vermont

Does somebody at the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing have special powers?

Fall foliage near Mount Mansfield, Vermont last weekend.  

Because it seems the weather has been great this year for all those tourists who come to Vermont to watch the leaves die spectacularly.

Columbus Day weekend is traditionally one of two big October weekends for leaf peeping.  As usual by mid-October it's actually kind of past peak foliage now in the high elevations and in the northeastern third of the state.

But it places like the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont, it's gorgeous, and the sun is going to play off all those colorful leaves beautifully today and Sunday.  I noticed this morning's sunrise on the orange and gold trees around my house in St. Albans is absolutely lovely.

There might be a few clouds, especially in eastern areas of the state today, but that might just add to the photos. Also some wispy high clouds might arrive Sunday, which could mean another spectacular sunset to add to the color

Some showers will probably arrive Monday. But hey, you can't have everything.

Enjoy the weekend!

Vermont Weather (So Far) Good For Fall Foliage

With peak foliage getting close in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom and some color popping elsewhere, we're in a good weather pattern to retain the foliage for all you leaf peepers out there.

This sugar maple next to my driveway in St. Albans, Vermont
is more vibrant than in past years, which is encouraging.
Last year, it turned a somewhat duller yellow.  

True, it's cloudy in much of Vermont today. I know leaf peepers like sun to light up the colors. You can't have everything, though,

But it's not raining, it's not particularly breezy, and the forecast for the next several days is very encouraging.

First of all, a windy, rainy storm system that some long range forecasts indicated might hit Vermont toward Monday isn't going to happen.

There will be a storm alright, but it will be way, way, way off the East Coast, so it won't be a problem for the Green (Multicolor?) Mountain State

The next cold front coming in from the west toward the beginning of next week is going to fall apart as it approaches the Northeast, so that won't be a factor.

Wind and rain are the worst for foliage, as such weather obviously rips the colorful leaves from the trees. But forecasts indicate high pressure systems will more often than not affect Vermont for at least the next week.

That's a good thing, since high pressure usually means generally fair weather and light winds.

The days will be warmish, in the 60s to around 70 over the next several days, but nights will cool into the upper 30s and 40s.  The humidity will stay low.

All of that is very good news.   Obviously, such temperatures are comfortable for all those weather-sensitive leaf peepers.

Additionally, the cool nights, combined with the fact humidity will stay low, is good for leaf color. Unusually humid weather with very warm nights in my experience tends to wash out the color. Bright sun and cool nights seems to encourage more vibrant reds and oranges.

I noticed driving around that the color is going to be spotty, which is also typical for Vermont. Some areas are a bit drab. It looks like the wet summer encouraged mold on some early coloring trees, which gives us some tans and browns.

But never fear. Judging from places where the color is farther along, the drab leaves drop early, and the green leaves left behind end up turning bright orange and red.

Here in the Champlain Valley, I see that starting to happen. Some of the white ashes have bare branches, because the leaves just shriveled up and fell. But the greens are starting to pop into reds.

Yes, I know I sound like a hopeless public relations cheerleader for the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing.  

But, the department's enthusiastic yelling and screaming about this year's foliage is so far truth in advertising. And no, the tourism department has not paid me a dime to say so.  (They can if they want, though!)