UPDATE 2 PM:It looks like the greatest severe weather threat this afternoon will be in southern Vermont and especially, southern New England.
One band of showers and storms went through Vermont in the hours surrounding noon, weakening somewhat as they did so. There was locally heavy rain with this band, but nothing extreme.
As expected, this initial band has stabilized the air over the northern half of Vermont. Lingering rain will mostly end by mid-afternoon, giving the atmosphere a chance to get primed for severe weather again.
But I doubt there will be anything widespread, at least in northern areas. There might be a strong storm or two. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is keeping all of Vermont in the slight risk zone for severe storms.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for central and southern New England, including the two southernmost counties in Vermont.
As of 1:30 p.m. southern New England was already starting to look problematic. A big thunderstorm in Connecticut at that hour was looking supercell-ish to me, and radar indicated it was starting to rotate.
The Storm Prediction Center is still not ruling out a tornado or two in central and southern New England and in eastern New York The risk is quite low, but still there.
More strong thunderstorms seemed to be forming in central New York State as of 1:30 p.m. Those New York state storms are the ones to watch as the head toward southern and possibly central Vermont later this afternoon. One storm near Gloversville, New York, well northwest of Albany, was showing signs of rotation, like the storm in Connecticut, as of 1:45 p.m.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
We know the atmosphere over the Northeast, including Vermont, is volatile enough to produce severe weather today, but will it actually happen.
As of early this morning, strong storms were already marching through far southern Vermont. The storms had prompted a severe thunderstorm warning northeast of Albany, New York around dawn.
Those same storms probably produced 40 mph wind gusts, and certainly had plenty of cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours as they pass through Bennington and Windham counties between 6 and 7 a.m.
This activity was part of a warm front that will rush very humid air into Vermont by noon today at the latest.
More showers and storms were moving into central New York as of 7 a.m. and if they hold together, they will reach Vermont later this morning or very early this afternoon. They just might, given that a severe thunderstorm warning went up around 7:10 this morning in the Watertown, New York area, along the eastern shore of Lake Ontario. All this is also part of that warm front.
Expect rapid changes in weather, and possible special weather statements and storm warnings in Vermont starting later this morning.
This afternoon, we get into the juicy, unstable air. However, all these morning storms and lingering clouds this afternoon could help limit the volatility of the air. Meaning severe thunderstorms could end up being relatively few and far between.
By no means are we off the hook, though. Despite the clouds, the atmosphere will be primed for at least a few strong to severe storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of New England, including all of Vermont except the extreme northwest tip in a slight risk zone for severe storms today.
If that comes to fruition, there will be scattered reports of severe storms across the region today. The primary threat today is strong straight line winds and microbursts. There is a very, very slight risk of a brief spin up tornado or two in central New England, including the southeastern third of Vermont.
It looks like several rounds of storms might come through -- especially south of Route 2.
The storms will have torrential downpours with them. There might be some local flash flood issues if one particular place gets hit by a "train" of thunderstorms repeatedly nailing the same spot.
The severe weather threat will be over by around sunset. The actual cold front that is helping trigger this messy day won't actually come through until overnight or early tomorrow morning. Unlike what's happening today, the cold front will pass by with little fanfare - just some no-big-deal showers.
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