Weird Backlash To Barry; Vermont To Have Miserable Week

Romance in the Louisiana flood this weekend.

Social media isn't really reality. We all know that.

Still, I'm irked by the types on Twitter and such that seem angry that Tropical Storm Barry wasn't "as bad" as a lot of forecasts.

First of all, Barry was and is pretty bad.  As of this morning, it was producing a relatively narrow, but intense rain band central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. This band had already produced up to 14 inches of rain and counting. Another three to eight inches of rain is expected within this band during this afternoon.

So destructive flash flooding is happening on top of the havoc Barry created this weekend.

Still, so far at least, flooding from Barry hasn't been quite as catastrophic as many people, including me, had feared. That should be a good thing. Sure, this event, like all big storms and such, are a teachable moment to help meteorologists and scientists make better predictions in the future.

There's always room for improvement. And people should ask questions if a forecast is botched. I'm not saying Barry forecasts were botched, mind you. But as usual, some areas had conditions that were different than forecast. Forecasting could have been better. Somehow.

That's one thing. Is quite another to act disappointed when a storm falls short of predictions and destruction isn't as extreme as feared. Grow up!

Barry isn't even done yet. Besides the flash flooding ongoing now, there's some risk in the Ohio Valley tomorrow. Plus, remnants of tropical storms can cause serious flooding long after they come ashore.

In 1995 for example, a lame Tropical Storm Dean came ashore in Texas on July 31. By early August, Dean's remains interacted with a stalled front in New England to cause a destructive flash flood over the northern half of Vermont.

I'm not saying history will repeat itself with Barry, but it ain't over 'til it's over. Speaking of which:

VERMONT FACES MISERABLE SUMMER WEEK

Great, low humidity conditions at a garden party at my St. Albans,
Vermont house Sunday. Big time humidity will come back
later this week, though.

Enjoy today, my Vermont friends,because the weather is going to turn just awful for the rest of the week. Unless you like stifling humidity, rain and the possibility of local flooding and severe weather.

Sunday gave us a welcome break from warmth and humidity. Thank goodness, because we had a big outdoor party at my place in St. Albans, Vermont and everybody was comfortable and happy.

It was in the cool 50s for most of us early this morning, and temperatures will get iinto the low 80s with low humidity this afternoon.

Then the humidity starts to skyrocket tomorrow. By Wednesday and Thursday, the remains of Barry will push in wicked high humidity. Plus, daytime highs will be in the mid-80s with lows near 70. Which is terrible sleeping weather.

There will also be fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Because of all the moisture around, the rain could be locally heavy.  Though at this point I don't expect any widespread flash flooding, local problems could easily happen.

The soil in Vermont currently isn't particularly wet, but if there's a tremendous amount of rain in a short period of time, you can still get in trouble.

It's looking as if the heat will get even worse Friday and Saturday. It'll stay just as humid, but temperatures could go into the 90s, especially if it's not very cloudy.

There will be some weak fronts and stalled boundaries hanging around Friday and Saturday. When it's that hot and humid the atmosphere is spring-loaded to set off some severe thunderstorms. All you need is a trigger. It's possible those little fronts and boundaries could set things off.

Yeah, not a good week, but it's summer, so what the heck.

So Far, So Good With Barry But Danger Remains. Also Uncomfortable Vermont Impacts

Flooding from Barry in Mandeville, La on Saturday.
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Reuters

Tropical Storm Barry its winds no longer much of a factor, continued to plow through Louisiana this morning, dumping heavy rains and unleashing lots of floods, as expected.

That's the bad news. The good news is, although the threat of destructive life-threatening floods is still big time there, some threatened areas have been spared so far. New Orleans, for instance, remains in good shape this morning.

Storm surges were certainly damaging along the coast, but could have been worse. The surge overtopped some levees, causing some serious flooding. People reportedly had to be rescued from rooftops in Terrebonne Parish, which is south of New Orleans.

The heaviest rain had so far mostly missed Louisiana, until this morning, when heavier rain bands started moving in.  That's about to get worse as the day wears on.

Barry has always been a weird storm.  When it was first starting to form in the Gulf of Mexico last Wednesday, it threw tremendous rains into New Orleans, flooding much of the city.

Since then, the most torrential rains with Barry have remained offshore, to the south of the storm's center.  That was true even early this morning, when the dying center of Barry was over western Louisiana.

True, some heavy rain bands did come in, causing some significant floods in southern Mississippi and coastal Alabama.

Today, however, as the remnants of Barry slog slowly northward toward Arkansas, that heavy rain in the northern Gulf of Mexico will pull north along with it. That's when the real torrents of rain will come, especially across central and southwest Louisiana, according to forecasters.  The highest risk for flash flooding there with this storm is actually this afternoon, evening and overnight.

Tomorrow, the best chances of Barry flooding are in the mid-Mississippi Valley, say in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Although I don't think Barry will do many scary things here in Vermont, we will feel its impacts. Especially in the sweat department.

The remnants of Barry will move toward us, and that will make the humidity rocket upward, especially as we get into Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

It will probably be the worst spell of high humidity we've had so far this summer. Daytime highs will get into the 80s, with dewpoints probably in the low 70s. That's about as humid as it gets in a Vermont summer. Nights will be oppressively hot - too muggy to sleep without air conditioning.

One potential danger from Barry and all his wet air coming at us is the possibility of local flash floods. That risk is definitely iffy and may well NOT come to pass,  but we'll have to keep an eye on that as we get on later in the week.

We do know that the humid air, the remnants of Barry and stalled, weak weather fronts near the Green Mountain State will set off some fairly frequent showers and thunderstorms. With all the humidity around, some of these storms will surely set off some torrential downpours.

If these torrential storms slow down or stall over a certain area, or a string of several such storms goes over the same area, one after another, that would increase the flash flood potential.

Like other events this spring and summer, even if Vermont does get some flooding out of this, and that's a bif if, the trouble wouldn't be statewide. Some towns would get nailed, while most others would be fine.

A couple videos:

 News report of overtopped levee in Myrtle Grove, New Orleans. Looks ominous:

 

Storm surge flooding in Brathwaite, Louisiana. You can see in the drone video water overtopping a levee here, too:

Long, Hellish Weekend in Louisiana, Mississippi Due To Barry

Tropical Storm Barry was looking somewhat more organized
early this morning on satellite imagtes. 

UPDATE 11 a.m.

Tropical storm Barry briefly achieved hurricane status this morning as it moved into Louisiana, as it had top sustained winds of 75 mph.

These strong winds were only in a small area east of the center, and of course probably have already started weakening.

Plus, Barry certainly does not look like a hurricane on satellite photos. At least not a traditional one.

This brief hurricane status basically means nothing in real terms. The expected outcome is the same: Strong, gusty winds in southern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with the biggest impacts being flooding from the expected rainfall of up to two feet

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tropical Storm Barry, that lopsided mess of a storm, was slowly inching toward the coast of Louisiana this morning, still destined to bring horrible flooding to Louisiana, Mississippi and perhaps beyond for the next few days.

Barry really is one of those storms that on paper, shouldn't be that big a deal. But, as we've pointed out for days, it's very slow and very wet, even by tropical storm standards, so the flooding still looks to be tremendous.

That flooding will begin today, if it hasn't already. Heavy rain was moving onshore early Saturday. Forecasters still expect an incredible ten to 20 inches of rain in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Storm surges have been causing some coastal inundations at least since Friday morning at the times of high tide. Power is already out in many neighborhoods as winds pick up. Some exposed areas along the shore and up high, like in upper floor condos, have had wind gusts to hurricane force already.

Honestly, there's not much new to report on Tropical Storm Barry this morning. Everybody down in the storm zone is just bracing themselves, hoping for the best, and expecting the worst. Baton Rouge is expecting flooding that could easily rival the epic disaster of 2016.

That was just three years ago, and people haven't really recovered from that yet, and here they are getting hit again

For weather geeks, Tropical Storm Barry looks very weird especially for a tropical storm packing top winds of 70 mph and one that could still become a category 1 hurricane.

The northern part of the storm was still blown apart all day Friday by dry air and strong winds aloft, while the southern half of the storm looked intense to say the least. Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a roughly circular shape. Barry looks more like a ragged half moon.

The storm on satellite looked a bit more like a traditional tropical system this morning, which tells me there's still some opportunity for strengthening as it nears the coast.

Still, because of the more disorganized northern part of the storm, the worst of Tropical Storm Barry will probably come a few hours after landfall. Heavy rain will come out ahead of it, of course, but it'll get really nasty once Barry is inland later today.

Flooding is obviously the big risk, but storms like Barry often spin off a lot of tornadoes, so that's a risk, too. Early this morning, tornado warnings went up in New Orleans, just a few days after another tornado destroyed a house near the city.

Anyway, Saturday morning is a time to watch and wait and see what Barry has in store this weekend. I'm sure there will be some bad news on this by Sunday.

Louisiana Braces For Barry Flooding; Northern Vermont Got A Needed Soaking

In this rainfall prediction map, areas in yellow could
see 10 to 20 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Barry

Residents of Louisiana and surrounding states are dreading what I rejoiced over last evening.

Downpours.

After nearly two weeks of mostly dry, hot weather parched my St. Albans, Vermont gardens almost into dust, heavy downpours rumbled through northern Vermont last night. It wasn't extreme by any means, but at least things out there are a little wetter.

What is extreme is the rainfall from Tropical Storm Barry, which we've been talking about for a couple days now.

Barry remains a disorganized mess in the Gulf of Mexico. It doesn't even really look like a tropical storm when you look at satellite pictures of it.

Looks are deceiving. Tropical Storm Barry is still destined to unleash a horrible flood. Probably in Louisiana. Right now, it looks like the worst of the rain and flooding would hit the eastern half of Louisiana into Mississippi, though of course the exact placement of those downpours could change as Barry evolves.

Forecasters say up to two feet of rain could fall from the slow-moving storm and many places are at risk of 10 inches or more. Storm surges from the Gulf of Mexico could also add to the flooding. This still looks like it's going to be quite the disaster, unfortunately.

"There are three ways that Louisiana can flood; storm surge, high rivers and rain. We're going to have all three," Louisiana Gov. Bel Edwards said. 

Winds from Tropical Storm Barry aren't all that fierce, but are persistent, and will continue to shove Gulf of Mexico water into the coastline through the weekend, even as the heavy rains fall.

Tropical Storm Barry was a disorganized mess in this satellite
photo from yesterday, but don't let that fool you. There's
still a high risk of epic flooding from this. 

CBS also reports that the Army Corp of Engineers now does not expect Mississippi River to overtop levees and the mayor of New Orleans said water pumping stations are much improved since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Still, there's only so much water that can be pumped out.

As the downpours in New Orleans demonstrated two days ago, super heavy rains can still easily flood the city. "We cannot pump our way out of the water levels and the waterfalls that are expected to hit," said New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell.

New Orleans itself is not under an evacuation order, but some people are getting out of town anyway. Other low-lying areas of Louisiana are being evacuated.

This whole Barry thing is a weird setup anyway, given the already high river levels ahead of the storm, the long lasting storm surge and downpours, and the generally sodden atmosphere, possibly made worse by climate change.

According to Time:

"Peter Gleick, a Pacific Institute climate scientist, warns that Tropical Storm Barry is 'exactly a climate change story.'

'No climate scientist is saying these storms are caused by climate change. That's a difficult thing to show......What we're saying is that climate change is increasingly influencing these very damaging events. And it's that influence that's going to grow over time as we continue to fail to get climate change under control.'"

If the forecasts are correct with Barry, this will make it the fourth summer in a row in which some part of the nation got an epic, unprecedente flood from a tropical storm or a tropical system. Louisiana got nailed in 2016, Hurricane Harvey drowned Houston and other East Texas cities in 2017; Hurricane Florence wrecked the Carolinas in 2018, and now this.

And I'm not even talking about all the other floods that have been going on.

Up here in Vermont, we had our own epic flood disaster with Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.  I worry these events are becoming more frequent, and we might be due again for another Irene. Not with Barry, but it feels like only a matter of time.

Last evening's downpours had me rejoicing because it was alleviating a dry spell. Of course, a few places got too much, as there were and are pockets of damaging flash floods in northern New York, central New Hampshire and parts of Massachusetts.

Here in Vermont, I figure it's inevitable thatone of these nights, the downpours won't stop, and then..........

Barry's Legacy Will Probably Be Another Epic Flood

Severe flooding in Louisiana in 2016 caused by a stalled weather system.
What is to become Tropical Storm Barry will also be moving
quite slowly, so it could unleash similar serious flooding
UPDPhoto by Bill Feig/The Advocate

UPDATE 1 p.m. 

s expected, that storminess in the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry late this morning.

The National Hurricane Center says it now has a better defined circulation and has sustained winds as high as 40 mph, so Barry now qualifies as a tropical storm.

The system is still a disorganized mess though, with upper level winds and intrusions of dry air messing Barry up.

Still,  Barry is still expected to intensify, and might, MAYBE achieve hurricane status before landfall over the weekend.

That doesn't matter all that much, though, as all the rain with Barry is the real problem. Flooding is going to happen somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Probably Louisiana.

That said, the exact track of the storm is super uncertain. It could hit land anywhere between Mississippi and the upper Texas coast. Whereve it hits, the heaviest rain will come over and just east of where it comes ashore.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The storm system that everybody's been watching in the Gulf of Mexico, the one destined to become Tropical Storm Barry, was still trying to get its act together this morning.

No matter what happens with this thing, though, it's almost guaranteed to bring somebody a terrible, epic flood. Once again, we'll have big time flooding in the news.

Wannabe Barry is still a wannabe because no real noticeable center of circulation had developed as of early this Thursday morning. Where that center forms will be key in where Barry goes. There's still questions on where precisely it will make landfall and at what strength it will do so.

Although everybody, including me, wants to know those particulars, in essence, it doesn't matter. The serious flooding from this is already almost locked in stone. It appears Louisiana or Texas and on up into probably Arkansas and Mississippi are at the greatest risk.

Yesterday, I mentioned how a storm surge from wannabe Barry pushing upstream along the already high Mississippi River could overtop levees. That's still a definite threat, but even if that doesn't happen, the flooding will be widespread and very dangerous.

One of the big reasons for that is wannabe Barry is in no hurry to get anywhere. Steering currents in the atmosphere are weak, so it won't move much. Which means the downpours will linger over a particular area for a long time, creating spectacular rainfall totals.

Current predicts are for at least a foot of rain in the areas especially targeted by Barry, and the latest best guesses are that would be Louisiana, possibly including the already flood-soaked New Orleans. Some areas could get up to 20 inches of rain.

This slow moving set of downpours sets up a potential disaster that has similarities to the stalled Hurricane Harvey in Texas back in 2017, or that no-name stalled August, 2016 storm that dumped up to 30 inches of rain on Louisiana, causing another epic flood.

Needless to say, flood watches are up along much of the northern Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and central Louisiana.  I suspect those flood watches will be extended westward toward Texas, especially if it looks like wannabe Barry goes further west, too.

It's interesting that there is a hurricane watch up for coastal Louisiana even though wannabe Barry isn't even a tropical depression yet. At least as of this writing.  It's certainly possible this storm could reach hurricane strength by early Saturday morning, especially if it stays off the coast over the warm Gulf waters long enough.

This would add some wind damage to the mix from wannabe Barry. And be dangerous for very low lying coastal areas. Low, swampy areas south and east of New Orleans were already being evacuated this morning because of the risk.

Regardless of whether this turns into a hurricane or not, the inland flooding will be the real impact.  This year has been another in a series with devastating floods in the United States. And it's about to get worse, unfortunately.

Here's some video clips of the flooding in New Orleans yesterday that was probably a prelude to the upcoming, bigger flooding disaster:

Will "Wannabe Barry" Turn Into Another New Orleans Hurricane Calamity?

Serious flash flooding in New Orleans this morning. Is this a
prelude to an even bigger calamity from wannabe Barry?

New Orleans was badly flooded today as a storm that wants to become Tropical Storm Barry gathers steam in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

This morning's flash flood emergency in New Orleans was created by intense thunderstorms on the outer edges of that mishmash of Gulf thunderstorms that might become Barry. Up to six inches of rain fell in just three hours this morning.

Many parts of New Orleans, including the French Quarter were under water this morning. If the worst case scenarios with wannabe Barry play out, this morning's destructive flooding will look like child's play. Things have the potential to get very difficult in the Big Easy.

You might remember my post a couple days ago that mentioned a cluster of thunderstorms that had its origins in Missouri and Tennessee was drifting down to the Gulf of Mexico and had the potential for grow into a tropical storm.

That potential seems like it is being realized. The National Hurricane Center says wannabe Barry will almost certainly grow into Tropical Storm Barry by Thursday and could easily increase further into a hurricane by the weekend.

The future path and strength of wannabe Barry is wicked uncertain, but early indications are it will move west over the northern Gulf of Mexico, then turn north and make landfall somewhere west of New Orleans.

If that happens, New Orleans would get the worst of the storm surge, which is water pushed ashore by a storm.

That's bad enough for low lying New Orleans. However, under normal circumstances, a storm surge being pushed northward up the Mississippi River by the city wouldn't be that big of a deal, as a levee system would protect the area.

Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico usually hit later in the year, when the Mississippi River is typically pretty low. The levee system around New Orleans protects the city unless the water gets more than 20 feet deep.

So if a storm surge increases the water level in the river from, say, five feet to 10 feet, the city and its levees can handle it.

Here's the problem: Wannabe Barry is gettting going early in the season, so the Mississippi River is higher than it would be in say, September, the height of hurricane season.  Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico aren't too off the charts weird in July, but it's still a bit unusual for things to be cranking this early.

The real trouble is the Mississippi River is very, very high from all the epic rains that fell upstream in the Midwest between March and June. So the water is now at around 16 feet, which is just a little below flood stage. A storm surge from wannabe Barry could push the water up over 20 feet, which would overtop levees and potentially give us Katrina all over again.

Another levee system that kept the waters of the Gulf of Mexico out of New Orleans led to the Katrina calamity of 2005. This potential mess would be different, as the water would be from the river, not the Gulf.

Of course, this is all a big maybe at this point. Maybe the surge won't be that big. Maybe Barry won't get very strong. Maybe Barry's path will take a turn so that New Orleans need not worry about anything.

Some forecasts say the unusually high water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico might prompt Wannabe Barry to grow much more intense than current estimates. Winds in the upper atmosphere over the northern Gulf of Mexico will also become lighter, another sign that this could get pretty big pretty fast.

On the other hand, there the winds in the upper atmosphere might be stronger than forecast, or there could be intrusions of dry air, or wannabe Barry could travel closer to land during its formative stages, all of which could hobble this storm and make it not that much of  a powerhouse.

The track of the storm, which will be key on who gets the worst of it, is still a wild card, too. Nobody is sure where this thing will go.  

Yesterday, when flood forecasts put the storm surge flood expectations at 19 feet, not 20 feet, officials were sanguine about everything. Even at 20 feet, workers can reinforce levees and close flood gates to stave off flooding.

All this means that another catastrophic flood in the New Orleans area is not a done deal. At all. But it's enough to make me and a whole bunch of other people worried.

Plus, this morning's flood was no walk in the park. There's lots of damage in and around New Orleans from today's inundation. We can all hope that this turns out to be the worst of it.

As anybody in Nebraska, or California, or Washington DC or Kansas or Oklahoma or Ontario or Quebec can tell you, we've had enough flooding disasters lately.

Yet Another Smoke Attack In New England As Canada Burns Once Again

A hazy sunset caused by Canadian forest fires, as seen
from St. Albans last summer. Haze and smoke attacks
in Vermon from Canadian fires seem to be on the
uptick in recent uears. 

The brilliant blue skies we enjoyed here in Vermont Sunday and Monday, and on into Tuesday morning faded into a sickly greyish color Tuesday afternoon as smoke from Canadian wildfires billowed high overhead.

The haze is still there this morning, at least to an extent, and could get worse again this afternoon.

Most of the smoke is high overhead, but you might have noticed the horizontal view Tuesday afternoon got a bit hazy, too. That was basically fallout - tiny smoke particles drifting back to Earth. That's how these smoke plumes eventually dissipate.

The trouble is the fires keep burning, so smoke keeps going up, and it perpetuates itself.

These tiny particles in the haze aren't exactly healthy to breathe. There wasn't enough haze and pollution yesterday in Vermont to cause any particular health risks. Today, it's possible that enough smoke could reach the surface to bother people with underlying health risks, so we should keep an eye on that.

You might even smell smoke at times today. Don't worry, it's not your house burning. Or maybe worry, because Canada is burning.

Obviously not all of it.  Extensive fires in Ontario have led to widespread smoke in the Midwest and eastern United States.  Other fires in western Alaska are choking that region in smoke as well.

In this air quality forecast for today from the EPA, the
air won't exactly be clean. Areas in yellow have moderate
amounts of particulates. Though not at super hazardous
levels, people with underlying health issues might
want to avoid overexerting outdoors today.
Especially since it will also be very warm.

Extreme dryness, warm air and severe thunderstorms with lots of dry lightning have sparked most of those large Canadian wildfires.

It does seem these "smoke attacks" here in Vermont and the rest of the United States are getting more frequent.

Which makes sense, since Canadian and western United States wildfires have trended upward in size and intensity in recent years.

 Climate change might well be influencing this. In Canada, warmer weather allows things to dry out earlier in the spring, extending the wildfire season.

Hotter, drier weather than in the past and lots of lightning strikes in the summer are fueling these fires.

For selfish reason, that's a shame. We often get breaks in summer heat and humidity via cold fronts from Canada, which gives us the perfect blue skies like we saw this past Sunday.

But now, Canada seems to give us smoke and haze, too. I want the blue sky back.