Will A Tropical Storm With An Origin Over Tennessee Form In Gulf Of Mexico?

The National Hurricane Center is telling us there's a decent chance that Tropical Storm Barry could form in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

This computer model shows the chances of a tropical storm
over any shaded area between now and July 21. Note
this is just ONE computer model and there is a lot of
uncertainty over whether Tropical Storm Barry
will form in the Gulf of Mexico. Take this
map with a giant grain of salt. 

That fact isn't all that unusual. Tropical storms do form pretty often this early in the hurricane season.

Water in the  Gulf of Mexico is easily warm enough to support a tropical system. This type of storm needs very warm water to survive.

The origins of wannabe Tropical Storm Barry seem a bit unusual. But it's also the type of thing that happens occasionally. I should back up and explain.

An area of low pressure, really just a lame swirl of showers and thunderstorms, has been meandering slowly from western Tennessee down toward the Southeast.

This little system is not impressive, and this morning, had few showers associated with it. During the afternoons and evenings, this system has been popping up some pretty good thunderstorms in the South

However, sometimes, it doesn't take much to set up a tropical storm, or at least the potential for one. This weak little stormish thing is forecast to sink south into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

There, it will start to feed off the warm Gulf of Mexico water and perhaps develop into a tropical storm. It's already got some spin to it, which could also help its development. The National Hurricane  Center gives this a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm within the next five days or so.

This all goes to prove that a tropical storm does not need to have its origins in the tropics, although most tropical storms and hurricanes have their beginnings over tropical ocean waters.

Still, wannabe Barry isn't all that unusual. Sometimes, a cold front will drop into the Gulf of Mexico and then stall. A few days later, a tropical storm or hurricane pops out of the stalled front.

If wannabe Barry forms, nobody is really sure where it will go. It does pose the risk of dumping very heavy rain somewhere along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Time will tell.