Irma Starts Wrecking Florida Today

Just part of the Tampa Bay area. You can see how
vulnerable the heavily populated area would be
to a storm surge from a hurricane like Irma.

Welcome to the horrible weekend of Hurricane Irma.

The big storm is still playing around with Florida, keeping everyone wondering which part of the state it's going to nail hardest.

It really hadn't started its northward turn yet, and was moving along the northern Cuban coast.

This interaction with land has kinda, sorta weakened Irma ever so slightly, but as I said yesterday, don't focus on the word "weaken." It still is and will be a horrible, horrible hurricane.

It's a huge storm in area, so a wide area is going to get tropical force and hurricane force winds.

The current thinking  now is it will turn north in time to make landfall near Key West, Florida, which is just terrible, given how low and exposed the keys are.

Sustained winds could still be 140 or 150 mph or so once Irma reaches the Keys, depending  upon how much Cuba's land interfered with Irma's circulation, and how much it can restrengthen over water.

Re-strengthening is forecast once Irma leaves Cuba.

I don't think I've ever seen as dire a warning from a National Weather Service office as I did last night when the NWS meteorologists in Key West, Florida said this:  "This is as real as it gets. Nowhere in the Florida Keys will be safe."

Adds Ed Rappaport, acting director of the National Hurricane Center: "It's not clear that it's a survivable situation for anybody that is still there in the Keys."

I really, really hope everybody left.

It now looks like Irma will move north along the western Florida coast, not eastern as was projected a few days ago. Irma is a huge sized hurricane, so that's kind of cold comfort for eastern Florida. Though it might not be quite as bad in places like Miami and Fort Lauderdale as first feared, it's going to be very dangerous there, with storm surges and hurricane strength winds.

TAMPA BAY WORRIES

The cities that are now in real trouble are Naples, Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Destruction from Irma in the Caribbean islands. 

The Tampa Bay region has always been regarded as particularly vulnerable to strong hurricanes. Thousands upon thousands of people have built homes on spits of land that are barely above sea level.

Barely five weeks ago, the New Orleans Times Picayune had a big article about how the Tampa Bay area is likely the most vulnerable city in America to a catastrophic hurricane. This is the same publication that predicted catastrophe for New Orleans months before Katrina.

Here's just one scary paragraph from the Times Picayune article, one that leaves everyone in a cold sweat now that Irma looms:

"By a stroke of gambler's luck, Tampa Bay hasn't suffered a direct hit from a hurricane as powerful as a category 3 or higher in nearly a century. Tampa has doubled down on a bet that another won't strike anytime soon, investing billions of dollars n high-rise condominiums along the waterfront and shipping port upgrades and expanding a hospital on an island in the middle of the bay to make it one of the largest in the state."

Oh, and by the way, natural processes and sea level rises due to global warming have made water during normal times closer to all these buildings. The Tampa Bay area experiences some flooding in even small storms.

How about this from the Times Picayune:  "Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn's warning was even starker. Standing outside City Hall last year, he described what would happen if a hurricane as small as a category 3 with 110 to 130 mph winds hit downtown:

'Where you're standing now would be 15 feet under water.'"

A guess we can still hope for Tampa's gambler's luck and Irma will somehow go west or east of Tampa, or weakens more than expected, but at best, this will still be an enormous deadly mess.

At the moment, the Irma forecast for the Tampa Bay area is winds of 90 to 110 mph with gusts to 135 mph, with a three to five foot storm surge. Much of the property around Tampa Bay is at elevations of five feet or less.

IRMA'S RECORDS

The records Irma has set are pretty amazing.

The Washington Post, in a terrific explanation of Irma's strength and staying power, says Irma "lucked out" in a variety of ways.

The hurricane threaded the needle between land masses. Landfalls almost always weaken hurricanes terribly quickly, unless they pass over such tiny islands as Barbuda and St. Martin, as Irma did.

Wind shear, which is strong or shifting winds in the upper atmosphere, tend to quash hurricanes. Wind shear over the Atlantic has been particularly weak this year, so hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2017 have a better chance of getting really, really strong.

That's a big reason why Hurricanes Harvey and now Jose are so strong, joining the intensity of Irma.

Steering currents are important as to where hurricanes go. The Bermuda High, the area of high pressure in the Atlantic that always asserts itself in the summer, has been stronger and further west than usual. That helps hurricanes maintain a generally westward motion to the south of the Bermuda High.

Another view of Irma's destruction

Had the Bermuda high been weaker, it would have been easier for storms like Harvey and Irma to recurve northward into the middle part of the North Atlantic, where they would have died harmless deaths.

(Even so, hurricanes this year can still curve north. After trashing islands previously wrecked by Irma, Hurricane Jose will likely turn north well before reaching North America, so it's no real threat to the United States.)

Finally, Atlantic Ocean waters in most areas are warmer than normal. And yes, this has to do with climate change.  As climate change progresses, we won't necessarily have to contend with more hurricanes than we do now, but chances are whatever hurricanes form have a higher potential of becoming wicked strong.

The Atlantic Ocean has always produced incredibly formidable hurricanes, but usually, the western Pacific creates the kings of all tropical systems. (They're called typhoons over there; typhoons and hurricanes are exactly the same thing.)

Not this year.

The Washington Post says this about Irma:

"When the storm maintained wind speeds of at least 180 mph for 37 hours, it set a record for most intense storm for such a long duration - anywhere on Earth. 

Super Typgoon Haiyan (Yolanda) - which devastated the Philippines and killed more than 6,000 people in 2013, was the previous record holder at 24 hours"

That the Atlantic Ocean should produce a hurricane as strong as Irma isn't a slam dunk proof of global warming. Still, it should concern us all that a lot of tropical systems - hurricanes and typhoons and whatnot - have been setting records for intensity in recent years.

Some of that surely has to do with better data collection......

Irma is an overwhelming hurricane, in a year we've already been overwhelmed by Hurricane Harvey.

When this type of thing happens, I do what human nature tends to do: I shut down the big picture and look at some of the picky details, which helps us all cope. The gallows humor in these situations usually helps, too.

So we turn to Rush Limbaugh.

Limbaugh Says Irma Is Liberal Conspiracy

Rush Limbaugh, that thundery blowhard of a radio host, informed us that week that we have nothing to worry about from Hurricane Irma.

As Slate points out, Limbaugh told us this week that liberal scientists and the media overhype and manipulate hurricane forecasts because they want to scare us into make us sign on to their "fake" global warming activism.

Slate quotes Limbaugh thusly:

"So the media benefits with the panic with increased eyeballs, and the retailers benefit from the panic with increased sales.. I don't want to mention brand names because that's not the point. Let's all it Basement Depot. Basement Depot, huge, huge, business. Basement Depot spends gazillions of dollars every year in local advertising in hurricane forced areas in order to advance their global warming agenda."

I got quite a  few likes on social media this week when I suggested Limbaugh should stand on a Hurricane Irma-exposed beach to "prove" to us that the storm is just a liberal false flag.

Alas, it turns out Limbaugh is a total snowflake. He lives and broadcasts from South Florida, and he's fleeing the storm, just like many thousands of other. Sorry, no video of Rush blowing away in a rush of hurricane force winds for you!

Anyway, hang tight this weekend, Florida! We hope everybody makes it through OK

Dread In Florida As Hurricane Irma Menaces The State

Devastation in St. Martin.

Now it's inevitable that giant Hurricane Irma will pummel Florida. 

Oh, yes, there's still picky little questions about its exact track, and exactly how strong Irma will be when it hits Florida, but we know now Florida is going to have a terrible disaster.

At least 500,000 Floridians have fled or are fleeing inland ahead of the storm. So, too, are thousands of people in coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Florida is experiencing gas shortages because so many people are either on the road, getting out of dodge, or stocking up on supplies of fuel for generators, or gas for their cars because they know service stations will be, well, knocked out of service by Irma.

Some of those picky details on Irma: It's still unclear if the giant hurricane will score a direct hit on Miami, or will it smash the Florida Keys instead. In some sense, it doesn't matter because almost all of Florida is going to experience hurricane force winds. But I suppose 75 mph is better than 150 mph.

As of this morning, Hurricane Irma had "weakened" to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 155 mph. As I noted yesterday, this "weakening" means nothing. Irma will remain a powerful hurricane.

It's possible Irma will cross the northern coast of Cuba before striking Florida. That would be bad for Cuba, of course, but slightly good for Florida, as winds would decrease further - but still be terribly destructive.

However, sea water temperatures are very hot - much above normal - in the path of the storm through the Bahamas and south and east of Florida. Very warm ocean water is jet fuel for hurricanes, and Irma will probably take advantage of that and stay strong.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is guessing Irma's top sustained winds will be near 150 mph when it reaches Florida early Sunday morning. By the way, tropical storm force winds will arrive well before then.

Irma is a huge hurricane in size as well as strength, so its wind field is huge, too. A bigger wind field means a bigger area is going to get hurricane force winds.

The biggest killer in hurricanes is a storm surge. The low pressure in a hurricane causes sea levels to rise, plus the hurricane's winds push massive amounts of water toward shore. Add enormous, battering waves to the mix and you understand why states like Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are kicking residents out of their coastal homes and sending them inland.

From left to right, Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose menace
the Atlantic Ocean

The chances of surviving a massive storm surge are low, and you can't send rescuers out in a Category 4 hurricane to try to save you. People idiotic enough to stay put in their South Florida beachfront home are on their own.

The storm surge heights are forecast to be five to 10 feet above normal high tide in the Florida Keys. The highest point in the Keys is just 18 feet above sea level, and the vast majority of the islands have elevations of ten feet or less.

Meanwhile, Miami Beach sometimes floods in just a full moon and no storms. (Sea level rise, largely caused by climate change, causes that.) Now imagine the six-foot storm surge forecast for low-lying Miami Beach. Yeah, scary.

"This is a catastrophic storm that our state has never seen," Florida Governor Rick Scott said.  

Meanwhile, Irma continues to island hop on its way to Florida, trashing the Turks and Caicos yesterday, and the Bahamas today and tomorrow.

So far, at least 14 people have died at the hands of Irma. This number will go up.

JOSE AND KATIA

Meanwhile, Hurricanes Jose and Katia are causing nightmares for other people, particularly in the northern Leeward Islands and in Mexico.

Hurricane Jose has strengthened to a major hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph. Jose will come close to islands such as Barbuda and St. Martin, which were devastated by Hurricane Irma.

Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up for those islands. I don't know what people are going to do there as so many homes have been blasted away by Irma. Where will they go for shelter?

Here's hoping Jose veers sharply to the north and largely misses those places. We'll see.

Hurricane Katia is still menacing the Mexican east coast. It's sustained winds were 90 mph as of early this morning and more strengthening is forecast before it makes landfall tonight.

Like Mexico needs another disaster. You might have heard about that huge 8.1-magnitude earthquake last night.


This is one of the gloomier weather blog posts I've filed in a long time. But, unfortunately, there's a lot of gloomy news out there.

Irma Mows Down Islands, Still Eyes Florida. Also, Hurricanes Jose, Katia

Extreme damage on the island of Barbuda after
Hurricane Irma.

We're all watching helplessly as immense Hurricane Irma takes down one island after another as it mows its way slowly toward the Bahamas and probably Florida.

At last check, at least 10 people have died in the storm, and that toll is sure to rise.

ABC's Good Morning America quoted Gaston Browne, the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda as saying damage on Barbuda is "unprecedented" and the island is "barely habitable."

Antigua suffered somewhat less damage than Barbuda. However, other news reports describe the island of St. Martin as 95 percent destroyed.

Scary videos of the destruction are at the bottom of this post. It must have been so frightening for the people caught up in this. Like being in the middle of a tornado. Although a tornado lasts just minutes. This wend on for hours.

There was damage in Puerto Rico, too, but luckily Irma's eyewall, the area near the center of the storm with the most vicious winds, skirted just to the north of the islands.

The Turks and Caicos are going to get nailed by Irma tonight and the Bahamas get it Friday and Saturday. Then we get to Florida. More on that in a second.

Irma early this morning still had sustained winds of 180 mph. It's been that strong for at least 33 hours, a new record long time for an Atlantic hurricane.

Extreme damage on St. Martin from Hurricane Irma

Irma looks like it could start a "weakening" trend starting this morning, but don't focus on that word "weakening." It's still very likely going to be an extremely powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane all lthe way to the vicinity of Florida.

FLORIDA'S NIGHTMARE

Mandatory evacuations are underway in parts of Florida, particularly the Keys and areas around Miami Beach. Store shelves have been cleared of supplies like bottled water, batteries and plywood. Millions of Florida residents are either hunkering down or fleeing as I write this.

While the National Hurricane Center has for days been saying Florida is a potential target, they are now confident enough in their forecasts that they'll likely issue a hurricane watch for at least parts of the state later this morning.

Irma will begin to be felt in Florida starting Saturday, but to what extent?

That's still unclear.

The National Hurricane Center projects Irma to make landfall in the southeastern corner of Florida, near Miami early Sunday morning.

But remember, that Miami projection is just the center of the so-called cone of uncertainty. Various computer models put Irma in different locations this weekend, as is typical of trying to forecast a hurricane that's still three days away.

It's pretty clear Irma will take a sharp turn toward the north, toward Florida this weekend, but we don't know exactly when it will make that turn.

Basically, that means Irma could theoretically go up the west side of Florida, plow through the middle of the state all the way to Georgia, or run up right along the east coast of Florida, or in a best-case scenario for Florida, move northward off the east coast of the state.

Of course, if Irma did that, it would probably just slam into the Carolinas, causing plenty of havoc there.

VERMONT IMPACTS?

Since this is a blog based in Vermont, I'm sure some readers are wondering if Irma will eventually have any impact in the Green Mountain State.

The short answer is, nobody knows.

I'm just speculating at this point, but a worst case scenario for Vermont would be a dying Irma going right overhead, unleashing heavy rains that would cause flooding.

We've had quite a bit of rain over the past week, so soils are wet and can't absorb as much water as they could have a week ago, when we were having a dry spell.

But still, that worst case scenario is just me being Mr. Doom and Gloom. I'm sure there's a chance we'll get some rain out of Irma, but right now, there's no point in forecasting anytbing for Irma in Vermont.

After all, if Irma does have any impact here, it won't happen for another week or so.

JOSE AND KATIA

For the first time since 2010, there are a total of three hurricanes simultaneously spinning in the Atlantic Ocean. Irma, of course.

Then there's Jose. And there's bad news about this one today.

Jose's top sustained winds are 90 mph. It's expected to strengthen and peak in intensity at about 125 mph just as it's passing over or near the northern Leeward Islands. That, of course, is where Barbuda and other islands devastated by Irma are.

The National Hurricane Center expects hurricane and tropical storm watches will be issued for some of these islands later this morning.

I don't think survivors on those islands can take another hurricane. Here's hoping that it veers further north, and spares these islands. We'll see.

Hurricane Katia this morning was lurking off the Mexican east coast. Top sustained winds with Katia are 80 mph. Since the storm is sitting over very warm water and there isn't much in the way of upper level winds to tear it apart, Katia will probably strengthen.

Katia is basically stationary now, but is expected to start moving southwestward soon, then slam into the central Mexican east coast around Saturday.

Here's a heartbreaking video from Barbuda:



Here's some extreme winds on St. Martin from Irma:

Irma Devastation. Also, Jose, Katia, Even Northeast Floods

Major damage to a hotel on St. Martin, caused by
Hurricane Irma.

I'll kind of do the same format as yesterday, as the weather picture remains extremely busy, and in some cases devastating.

I'll start with the obvious - Irma - and then move on to all sorts of other weather news - some of which is affecting us here in New England.

IRMA MOWING ISLANDS

Hurricane Irma plowed into the tiny island of Barbuda overnight, still as a Category 5 storm with winds of 185 mph, gusting to 225 mph.

A weather station on Barbuda reported sustained winds of 108 mph gusting to 155, before wind reports abruptly went calm. I don't know if that was the eye of Irma hitting or just the wind measuring equipment failing under the extreme strain of the storm.

A storm surge of over eight feet smashed the south side of Barbuda. I don't have details yet on how people are doing out there.

Barbuda and the neighboring hard-hit island of Antigua have a population of about 100,000, though it's unclear how many people left the islands before Irma hit.

This is just the beginning, of course. Next up today is St. Martin, which got slammed this morning. Early reports from St. Martin indicate severe damage, even to sturdy buildings. The Virgin Islands are getting it, too.

Irma is a terrible threat to Puerto Rico as well. It'll pass over or just to the north of Puerto Rico tonight, with a lot of damage expected there. Already, as of 10 a.m. Eastern Time, outer rainbands from Irma have already toppled trees and cut power in parts of eastern Puerto Rico. It's going to keep getting worse as the day drags on.

The Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the southeastern Bahamas, could see extreme storm surges of 15 to 20 feet, which would take out huge swaths of coastal communities. I hope they have great evacuation plans there.

Eventually, Irma gets close to Florida, so we have to talk about that in some detail.

Since Irma won't be around Florida until Sunday or so, the future path is uncertain. It could hit any part of the Florida peninsula, and the center of Irma could miss it entirely. Still, Florida is certain to have some effects from Irma, we just don't know to what extent yet.

The forecast future path of Irma as it heads toward the United States later this week reminds me of Hurricane Matthew last year.

Last year, Matthew headed westbound across the central Caribbean, then took a sharp turn north, where it devastated Haiti, then moved northward just off the east coast of Florida, still as a major hurricane, then coming ashore in South Carolina, then offshore again while unleashing a devastating flood in North Carolina.

Major damage and flooding on St. Martin with
Hurricane Irma this mornig. 

Irma is starting from a position further north than Matthew, but is still forecast to abruptly change its basically westward path just above the coast of Cuba and veer sharply north toward Florida over the weekend.

Here's the problem: We still don't know exactly when Irma will turn north. It's a few days away so the so-called cone of uncertainty is wide.

Irma could go up the west coast of Florida, or smack directly into the southern tip of Florida, possibly still as a Category 4 hurricane, or move north just off the east coast of Florida just like Matthew did. Some of the computer models have been trying to push Irma in that more easterly path. We'll just have to wait and see.

Of course, if Irma does this more easterly trick, that would put the Carolinas at a higher risk of getting blasted.

By the way, you'll hear media reports of Irma "weakening" and perhaps talking about a sigh of relief from Florida.

Don't buy it. It's true Irma will likely no longer be a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds by the time it gets near Florida Sunday or early Monday.  Disruptions in Irma's circulation from nearby islands, and some upper level winds will probably cut back on Irma's strength a little.  But I'm guessing ot that much.

Irma will still be a formidable hurricane near or over Florida.

The state is already kind of a mess and Irma isn't anywhere near Florida yet. Tourists and non-residents have already been order off of the Florida Keys. Miami Beach plans to announce mandatory evacuations later today or tomorrow, says the Miami Herald.

Store shelves across Florida are bereft of supplies like bottled water, plywood and other things people need for storm preparation.

Price gouging is a problem, too.

Bottled water on Amazon is selling for an inflated price, which has brought accusations of price gouging.  According to CBS news, Amazon uses "dynamic pricing," in which as demand for an item increases, so does the price, guided by Amazon's algorithms.

In this case, Amazon, shut your goddamn algorithms off, you selfish bastards.

The Florida Attorney General's office has opened a price gouging hotline to report such activity.

Anyway, I could go on and on with the developing story of Irma, but I'll just keep posting updates as needed.

Let's move on to other weather news that you should hear about today:

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE:

Tropical Storm Jose continued to strengthen toward hurricane status well east of Irma. Jose will probably travel on a more northwesterly course than Irma, but still could clip the northern Leeward Islands, already devastated by Irma.

Tropical Storm Katia has formed in the Bay of Campeche, east of Mexico. It's going to meander around for a few days then head southwestward into the central Mexican coast, forecasters believe. It could strengthen to a hurricane before landfall.

Texas still looks safe from Katia, so that piece of news is good. They don't need another Harvey.

NORTHEAST FLOODS:

It's another rainy day in the Northeast, and the flood threat is increasing in parts of the region. Flash flood watches are up in parts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine as a stalled front over that region is unleashing heavy rains there.

Two to four inches of rain could fall there by Thursday morning, on top of the locally heavy rain they had yesterday and last night.

Here in Vermont, we're west of the front so the rain isn't so heavy. No major flooding is expected in the Green Mountain State, but as you can tell it's another rainy, gloomy day here.

On Tuesday, some parts of Vermont and the rest of New England had some damage from severe thunderstorms. Most of it was in the form of trees and power lines down. One especially strong storm snapped off nine pine trees in Pittsfield, Vermont.

We'll provide updates as we go along, so stay tuned.

Here's a video showing the destruction in St. Martin:

Category 5 Hurricane Irma Could Be Another Worst Case Scenario

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma heading westbound
toward the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday.

Boy, it's busy today.  We have Hurricane Irma, other tropical trouble, severe storms in the East and fires out west. I'll obviously start with Irma, and I'll get to the other issues lower down in this post after I get done with the very dangerous news on Hurricane Irma.

Irma this morning is a Category 5 beast, the worst you can get, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, gusting to 215 mph. It's the strongest hurricane on record that's occured in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Worse, the National Hurricane Center says Irma will remain a Category 4 or 5 storm all the way to somewhere near Florida by the weekend.

The further out in time you get with the forecasts for Irma, the more uncertainties arise in its exact track, and that's normal for all hurricanes.

We do know that by tonight or tomorrow, the northern Leeward Islands are going to be crushed by perhaps the worst hurricane in their history, as Irma will still probably be a Category 5 storm then.

Next in line are the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, where hurricane warnings are up tomorrow, when Irma is expected to hit those islands very, very hard.

Also preparing for a possible disaster from Irma is Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and Cuba. There, people are stocking up on emergency supplies now, and beginning to evacuate vulnerable seaside locations. Since Irma is a few days away from these locations, its unclear exactly which sections of these nations will get hit.

Then we get to Florida. It's still possible Irma could veer away from the Sunshine State, but it's looking more and more likely Florida will be affected by Irma, and could well take a direct hit from the storm while it's a Category 4 storm.

Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 130 mph, and category 5 hurricanes have winds of 157 mph or greater.

I'll caution again that hurricane forecasts for what will happen four or more days out are often very inaccurate, so there's no guarantee at all that Florida is screwed.

However, you saw the destruction to towns in the path of Hurricane Harvey in Texas that were hit when Harvey was a Category 4. This is before the epic floods started. The damage in places like Rockport, Texas looked like that of a major tornado, except covering a much larger area than a tornado would.

Harvey's Category 4 winds struck an area that had a relatively sparse population. Now imagine if the same thing hit a major Florida city like Miami. Besides the winds, the storm surge would devastate Miami, since its elevation is so low.

I don't know whether Irma will hit Miami, or some other place in Florida or miss the state altogether, but you can understand why they're very nervous there.

No evacuations order have yet been issued for any part of Florida, because it's too soon to figure out who to evacuate.  Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all of Florida, so that emergency managers have the resources to start gearing up now if not sooner.

Still, some people in Florida have already had enough and are leaving the coast, or even the entire state before the mad rush begins.

Some of my Vermont readers are probably beginning to wonder if Irma will have any effect up here, and the answer is nobody has any clue. I suppose it's possible it could come north with heavy rain and gusty winds eventually, but that's just pure speculation.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Another strong disturbance is hot on the heels of Irma in the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Jose, and it's likely to become a pretty powerful hurricane in its own right.

While nobody knows for certain, it appears Jose might head toward the northwest and miss North America, which would be a good thing. However, there's a chance it could hit the northern Leeward Islands, which I've noted are going to get blasted by Irma.

Sigh.

There's also a disturbance developing in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. That's where Harvey came from so I'm sure people in Texas are not liking this. However, if this disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it will probably meander around for awhile, and the maybe head west into Mexico, and miss Texas by a wide margin.

At least we hope so.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY NORTHEAST

Severe thunderstorm are definitely a risk today in much of the Northeast, including here in Vermont.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms in central New England, including the southeastern half of Vermont today. The slight risk extends southwestward into eastern New York and into eastern Pennsylania and New Jersey.

Severe thunderstorms are possible today in the
yellow shaded area. Areas in dark green have
a very slight chance of severe storms. 

Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats in the slight risk area, but we can't rule out a brief tornado in that region, either.

Some thunderstorms will produce torrential rains, so there's a risk of local flash floods or street flooding in a few locations.

It's a little late in the season for severe weather in New England, but it does happen in September and October from time to time.

One of New England's worst tornadoes struck Windsor Locks, Connecticut in October, 1979 for example. That one killed three people and injured dozens.

The cold front causing today's potential severe weather will slow down to a crawl over eastern New England over the next couple of days. Heavy rain will fall there, especially in Maine, where there could be a few flooding problems by Thursday.

WESTERN FIRES

We've had a lot of hazy, smoky skies over Vermont for much of the past month as major wildfires continue to blossom and grow across Canada and the western United States.

The fires got worse out west in the past few days as a heat wave accompanied by very dry air and gusty winds blew fires up into big conflagrations. We'll continue to see smoky or hazy skies for awhile. Thick haze has also enveloped the Upper Midwest from these fires.

Forest fire in the Columbia River Gorge. Photo by
Hal Bernton/Seattle Times.

But that's no big deal. The actual fires are a big deal and are causing big time havoc. About 140 hikers had to be rescued from the Columbia River Gorge Trail in Oregon when a wildfire approached them.

Firefighters are trying to protect a 2,700-year-old grove of giant sequoias near Yosemite National Park.

The largest wildfire in Los Angeles history burned around Burbank this past weekend.

An odd batch of gusty, rainy thunderstorms helped tamp the fires down, but one of the storms caused a destructive microburst in Santa Barbara.

There were so many fires burning in Washington State that ash fell like snow in Seattle, says the Seattle Times.

In Canada, fires forced evacuations in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

Phew, busy times in the weather department lately, huh? And it looks like it will continue. Let's all hope we don't have any more mega disasters out of this spate of wild weather.

Starting To Worry About Irma A Little

Hurricane Irma looking ominous on satellite photos
this morning

Lots of places now need to watch out for massive Hurricane Irma. 

Forecast tracks for Irma are still not set in stone, of course, but we are starting to get some clues as to where it's headed, and the news is not great.

First in line are the northern Leeward Islands, basically the eastern entrance to the Caribbean, where hurricane watches are up.

And the National Hurricane Center has this to say:

"Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Irma."

While you're at it, you might start throwing in the Bahamas and Cuba for places that should watch Irma.

Irma still had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph early this morning, and the storm looked healthy on satellite images. Irma is now moving into even warmer ocean water, which could easily favor more strengthening.

A lot of forecasters are pretty confident Irma will rise up to Category 4 strength soon.

Overnight, the forecast models shifted the expected path of Irma a bit south and west in the long term, which puts the United States more at risk.

It's still possible the models could shift back away from the U.S. Any threats to the United States mainland are a week away, so huge changes in forecasts are still likely.

For now, the threat is anywhere on the East Coast, with an area from Florida to the Carolinas most at risk. Again, this is NOT definite. It's just something for people in these areas to keep an eye on for now.

Already, though, I see reports of store shelves in Florida cleared of bottled water and other supplies.

It is probably smart to get ready now, so you don't have to do a rush job amid a panic. If the storm ultimately misses, people in Florida and elsewhere will have supplies, and practice for the next time there's a hurricane threat.

Harvey, Irma, Disaster Plans And You

No disaster near your house at the moment? Good.
Now's the time to calmly formulate a plan for
the day a disaster DOES hit.

It's a rainy Sunday here in Vermont as the remnants of Harvey lumber through.

We're still watching powerful Hurricane Irma, which is out in the middle of the Atlantic and still definitely poses a potentially very big danger to the United States.

Though we still might get lucky and it could curve out to sea. We'll have to wait until later forecasts to figure this one out.

What will help with the Irma forecasts is the National Hurricane Center is planning on sending hurricane hunter flights into the storm Monday.

The added data, and the more dense data those flights will gather will help take some, but not all of the uncertainty out of Irma's future track.

That would be helpful, since there are still some computer models that are really off the rails with Irma's predicted track. One GFS model brings Irma ashore in the Carolinas, which seems plausible, but then takes it westward to Indiana. Umm........

Today's rainy weather, at least locally, and the threat of Irma makes today a great time to plan for a disaster.

The chances your house will get hit by a huge disaster anytime soon is slim. However, in the off chance you get caught in a disaster, it'll almos surely surprise you, which is bad.  Even if a nasty spell is forecast, we don't think it will be us. Until it is. And then we don't think clearly when we're surprised and scared.

That's why it's good to have a handy dandy disaster plan. Basically a checklist of what you can do when something bad hits. It'll focus you in an emegency.

You can't plan for everything, there are always surprises in every event. But start by thinking about what emergency is most likely to hit near you, and design your plan a fair amount around that.

Are you in a coastal area prone to hurricanes and nor'easter? Is flooding your nightmare? Or maybe you live somewhere prone to wildfires. Or chemical plants that might blow up.

Online, you'll find a instructions and templates on how to plan for a disaster from outfits like the Red Cross and Ready.gov.

Another good resource is the book "The Extreme Weather Survival Manual" by Dennis Mersereau and the editors of Outdoor Life.

Here are some things to think about when making a plan.

You don't have to get elaborate like this video of the Big Bang Theory's Sheldon Cooper conducting a disaster drill.

Instead formulate an outline, and even that will be complex enough.

I would divide it into three scenarios: If you have to evacuate at a drop of a hat;  if you have time to gather things before you leave, or if you're told to shelter in place.

Think about the things you'll really need: Non-perishable food, water, prescription medications, battery operated lights and candles, extra batteries, pet food and supplies, baby supplies if you have a little one, that kind of thing.

It actually wouldn't hurt to head down to the Piggly Wiggly or the place with the helpful hardware folks and buy some of this stuff now. There's no emergency, the stores are fully stocked and nobody's in a panic. Which means the shopping trip would be pretty easy.

Also, have a plan in place to contact loved ones outside the disaster zone, either to let them know you're OK, or HOLY CHRIST I NEED HELP NOW!!!!!

The next tip is emotionally draining, but do it anyway. Read news stories about how people handled being in the middle of the Harvey floods or some other disaster. They'll always tell you what they should have thought of, and those ideas could be good tips for you.

For instance, one woman said that while evacuating from the Harvey flood, the cell phone in her pocket got wet and died. She wished she'd put the phone in a sealable plastic bag. Great tip!

Also, take pictures now of the outside and inside of your house and store those in a safe place. (In the Cloud, maybe if you're careful not to clue in hackers and criminals to what's inside your house.)

This will help later if you need to make an insurance claim.

And here's something you probably can't do this weekend but ought to do soon. Have a nice sit-down with your insurance guy or gal. Are you adequately covered? What other insurance precautions should you take? Is it worth it to buy flood insurance?

I confess I don't have much of an emergency plan, but Harvey has scared me into starting one this weekend. I don't live in a particularly dangerous area. Flooding risk is relatively low, except for the driveway, which could wash out.

My house is not in a place that's super hurricane or wildfire prone. However, you never know what might come along. I guess I should start drawing plans now.

For comic relief, here's that clip of the Big Bang Theory disaster drill: