Vermont, New York Get Surprise Downpours, Flood Threat Dramatically Worsens

Chaos in Barre, Vermont after a May, 2011 flash flood.
There's some risk we could see scenes like this again this weekend.

Much more rain fell across northern New York and the northern half of Vermont overnight, and this sets the stage for a real flood threat.

The threat is even higher than I had been expecting earlier this week.

Last night's torrential rains, amounted to two to three inches, locally even a little more from the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, across Lake Champlain and the northern half of Vermont.

Burlington got 2.16 inches of rain and Colchester piled up 2.71 inches.

By the way, June rainfall in Burlington has so far amounted to 6.79 inches. If we don't get a drop of rain today, it'll still be the seventh wettest June on record.

Flood warnings were issued across a stripe of northern Vermont, along and roughly 30 miles either side of a line from Burlington to a little south of St. Johnsbury.

There's been no major flooding in that zone, but there is high water, washouts and that kind of thing.

Mainstem rivers are already getting into the act, too. There's a flood warning for the Winooski River at Waterbury. Today's flooding won't be as bad as during Tropical Storm Irene, when the Winooski flooded most of downtown Waterbury.

But low spots, and low roads are going to go underwater. Flooding will cover fields and damage crops downstream to Richmond, and possibly all the way down to the famed vegetable farms in Burlington's Intervale.

The rain was temporarily waning early this morning and the flood warnings will have probably been dropped, at least for awhile across northern Vermont by the time you read this. With the exception of the Winooski River flood warning, which will probably remain in effect most of the day, even if we don't get much more rain.

However, this flood event is only just beginning.

A flash flood watch is up across northern New York, the northern half of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and western Maine through Saturday night.

The warm front that caused the torrential rains last night is lifting toward Quebec and we'll get firmly entrenched in the warm, very humid air today.

Disturbances riding along a front to our west will fire up plenty of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and some will of course have torrential rain.  Even as I write this at 7 a.m. Friday, heavy downpours were lurking in western New York, heading east.

Here's how high the risk is: It would only take about an inch of rain in an hour to cause a flash flood. Some of the thunderstorms today and even more numerous ones Saturday and Saturday night could easily drop two inches of rain in an hour.

Flash flooding in Richmond,  Vermont in June, 2013. This
kind of thing could easily happen again today, and
especially Saturday in Vermont. 

And some locations that are unlucky enough to get repeated storms could get three to five inches of rain between now and Saturday night.

We get flash flood watches fairly often, but this to me is the most precarious situation since the big spring and summer floods of 2011.

Some of today's storms could also be severe, with strong gusty winds. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in part of a broad zone of a slight severe storm risk today.

The storms will subside tonight, but there's still a chance of locally heavy downpours overnight.

For what it's worth, one weather model has a band of heavy rain lingering for several hours across northern Vermont this evening. That might or might not actually happen, but it's something to watch.

Saturday afternoon and night is looking even more dangerous. The cold front to our west will be closer, and the thunderstorms will be much more numerous Saturday than they will be today.

Even worse, the air will be even more humid than today, providing the fuel for even more torrential rains. And some of those storms could be severe, with gusty winds.

Not only is flash flooding a threat, but some of the bigger rivers in the North Country could flood. We already mentioned today's flood warning on the Winooski.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Winooski flooded again by Saturday, along with other rivers like the Ausable in New York, and Vermont's Lamoille, Mississquoi and Mad rivers. This all depends, of course, on how widespread and heavy the rain is.

So heads up. It's going to be a rough weekend. The threat of flooding is pretty damn high. We could get lucky and not get so many storms, but I'm not holding my breath. This could be one for the record books.

Still Worried About Possible Flash Floods This Weekend

Stormy skies over St. Albans, Vermont earlier this week.
More storms, and possible flash floods, could hit
parts of the Green Mountain State over the weekend.

As of mid-morning, a band of rain was right on our doorstep moving in from the west and northwest ahead of a warm front.  

It'll be cool here in Vermont today, since the warm front won't actually move through until tomorrow, and the rain will keep the air chilled.

This afternoon and evening is really going to be a soaker, with drenching rain a sure bet.

The overall forecast hasn't changed much since I talked about this yesterday, and we're still at risk for local flash flooding over the weekend in the Green Mountain State.

There shouldn't be any substantial flooding at all today and tonight, but the rain, falling on already soggy soil, will turn the ground into wet mush and raise water levels in streams and rivers, which were already running a bit high before today's rain.

After the warm front moves through Friday morning,  we'll be in humid, warm air. Scattered thunderstorms are inevitable in such an airmass, and the moisture in the atmosphere will be increasing all day.

The Friday thunderstorms will be hit and miss, and most of them won't be big enough, or slow moving enough to cause flash floods. Still, torrential downpours falling on the soggy soil could trigger a few local bouts with high water and washouts.

A few of Friday's storms could be strong, too, with gusty winds and lots of lightning joining up with the torrential downpours. Not everybody will get at thunderstorm Friday, but those who do will sure notice it.

Saturday is the trouble day. Again, I can't guarantee any flash flooding, but thunderstorms will be very widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be really juiced up with water, so the rainfall with these storms will be unbelievable in spots.

I'm guessing the National Weather Service in South Burlington will soon issue a flash flood watch for at parts of our area for Saturday. Stay tuned on this one.

A Break Today, Then More Storms. Floods, Too?

A storm over Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, as
seen from Overlook Park in South Burlington, Vermont

Just a quick update before I go outside and enjoy and (mostly) rain-free day.

As expected a lot more showers and storms swept across Vermont and most of the rest of the Northeast on Tuesday.  

Some storms did end up dropping quite a bit of hail, again as expected.

The worst problem, going forward, is that the storms on Tuesday added yet more moisture to the ground. And a lot more rain is looming. We could be looking at another flood potential over the weekend.

What looks to be a very wet warm front - probably similar to the one that brought us a soaking last Friday, looks to hit us on Thursday, especially in the afternoon and evening.

There won't be a lot of thunderstorms with it, but it looks like another soaker - possibly an inch of rain that will really turn the ground to a swampy soup.

Thursday's rains don't look like they'll be enough to cause any significant flooding, but they could prime the pump for the weekend.

We'll get back into the warm, very humid air Friday and Saturday, and that sets the stage for yet another flash flood threat in Vermont and the rest of the North Country.

At this point, it sort of looks like the storms Friday will be scattered - probably not enough to trigger flash flooding, though a local torrential downpour has the potential to cause trouble then.

The trouble - if any - looks like it would come on Saturday, especially the afternoon and night. By then, it will be ridiculously humid again, with dewpoints near the awful 70 degrees.

A slow moving cold front will be approaching from the west Saturday. It looks like we could get into "training" thunderstorms again, as the air flow will be parallel to the front. That means repeated thunderstorms could keep going over the same spot again and again.

That would trigger the flash floods. Especially since the ground is so sopping wet.

This scenario for Saturday is not set in stone. A lot can happen to the weather patterns between now and then. Maybe the heaviest rain will orient itself somewhere else, like to our west, north or south.

Or, atmospheric conditions might not be ripe enough to trigger lots of torrential thunderstorms. Maybe we'll get away with just scattered stuff.

The only reason for this post, then, is to give you a heads up that there could be flash flood trouble on Saturday. Watch for future posts and updates,  and whether any flash flood watches or alerts are issued.

Also pay attention as the weekend approaches to the National Weather Service and/or trusted weather forecasting sources.

Threshold For Heat Warnings Lowered In New England

Heat,  near 120 in the shade, melted this plastic Phoenix
mailbox last week. Though things never get this bad in Vermont,
heat can still be dangerous in the summer. 

Chances are you'll hear more heat advisories and heat warnings this summer if you're in New England.

No, I'm not expecting this summer to be record hot. Instead, they're lowering the temperature at which they start issuing heat advisories.

According to Vermont Public Radio, they used to issue heat advisories if the temperature was expected  to reach 100 or more for at least two hours.

Now, they'll issue advisories if there is a forecast of two consecutive days when readings are likely to reach 95 or more.

"In Vermont, where our hot days are so infrequent, it can be really tough for our bodies to adjust to those hotter temperatures and change your activities to work around the hot weather.... And often Vermonters, myself included, don't have air conditioning, so it's hard to find relief during those hot days," Jared Ulmer, the climate and health coordinator at the Vermont Health Department, told VPR.

Emergency room visits for heat related illnesses begin to rise in Vermont when the temperature reaches about 87 degrees, so you know a couple 90 degree days can be a bit much for some people.

For today, at least, no worries about the heat. The expected high temperature in Burlington, Vermont today is 71.

Bright Sun And Storms: Skies Perfect For A Weather Geek

A photo I took last summer in Fairfield,
on a day with beautiful atmospheric
conditions similar to Sunday's
in Vermont.

Sunday featured what I consider perfect weather here in Vermont, though I know most people would disagree with me.

Oh sure, people must have thought it was nice enough, at times. There were bouts of briliant blue skies and bright sunshine. But those were frequently interrupted by billowing clouds, lightning, and quick downpours accompanied by chilly wind gusts.

But those skies! Big cloud towers lit up white by the sun against a deep blue sky backdrop, free of haze. Closer to the storms, evening sun cut underneath roiling storm clouds, giving the atmosphere an  otherworldly feel.

This kind of thing happens at least once a year, sometimes several times of year, especially in June and the first half of July.

These beautiful sunny and stormy days are created when a pocket of cold air sits high overhead. The sun is as strong as it gets this time of year and quickly heats the ground. Warm air starts to rise, and rises especially quickly when it's cold up above.

These rising air pockets condense into billowy clouds, and eventually, the types of showers and thunderstorms we saw on Sunday. This is especially true when a weak weather front, again like we had Sunday, adds more lift to the air.

You might think this is odd, but the weather conditions remind me of my favorite play, "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf." by Edward Albee.

In that play, protagonists George and Martha are in constant conflict, but seem to have an emotional need to constantly engage in that conflict.

Sunday's weather was a classic conflict between warmth and cold, and the two temperature extremes needed each other to create the beautiful turmoil overhead.

The kind of storms we had Sunday come on days when the air isn't particularly humid. Which means there's no haze obscuring the beautiful cloud structures the way it usually does when we have thunderstorms. After all, we associate thunderstorms with hot, humid weather and not  during refreshingly cool days. But of course it does happen.  

Dramatic skies over St. Albans, Vermont Sunday evening
as the setting sun lit up the base of a thunderstorm
passing by just to my north. 

Sometimes, these cooler weather storms can get strong or even severe. Since there's plenty of cold air aloft, it's easier to get hail out of the type of storm we got Sunday, so that's one drawback. We love the sky we had yesterday, until the hail shreds the hostas.

Also, these storms are relatively brief, and will collapse suddenly, bringing a gush of potentially strong to damaging winds to a few local areas.

This all happened up toward St. Johnsbury, where one storm Sunday produced golf ball sized hail and knocked down some trees and power lines.

Today, there will be some cool weather showers and isolated thunderstorms around, but the dynamics of the atmosphere don't lend themselves to the skies we had Sunday.

However, tomorrow, Tuesday, we have another weather disturbance and a new pocket of cold air aloft  coming in, so there's the potential for things to look as beautiful as they did Sunday.

So make sure you look up and enjoy the spectacle of an active Vermont summer skh. Let's just keep the hail out of the gardens, OK?

We Dodged A Flash Flood Bullet, But It's Going To Stay Wet

Arrived at work early this morning, amid rain, a wet parking lot
and dark overcast skies, Burlington, Vermont

We hare in Vermont and the rest of the North Country barely dodged a nasty flash flood bullet on Friday.

That soaking rain - one to two inches of it - primed the pump for some real nastiness Friday afternoon and evening as we expected some more torrential thunderstorms.

Those afternoon and evening downpours indeed developed across New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

But, thankfully, they were just a bit too scattered, a bit too fast moving and not quite consistent enough to send blasts of water roaring out of the hills.

The result is some minor driveway and back road washouts, high water in the creeks and soggy, half drowned gardens, but no real disaster.

Other areas that have been getting a lot of rain weren't so lucky. Flash floods were reported Friday and earlier this week from Ontario to Louisiana.

Also, early this morning, severe thunderstorms and at least one likely tornado caused a lot of damage in New Jersey

If you're getting sick of the rain, I've got bad news for you. There's a chance of showers daily for the forseeable future, pretty much through next Friday.

No single day in this damp stretch will be a washout, and I see no signs coming up of enough rain to renew the flood threat. At least that's how it looks now.

However, it appears weather disturbances will come through just about every day, creating the risk of showers.

Sunday afternoon in particulary has a high chance of showers as a another cold front ripples on through.

Despite the rain threat, it will turn less humid this afternoon and on into early next week as a dip in the jet stream sits over us.

It will probably turn somewhat warmer and more humid near the end of the week, but the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue as a front stalls to our north and other weak weather systems keep zipping in from the west.

Summer is still young, and things could change, but if this summer turns out to be a wet one, that's following a trend in New England.

Last summer was very dry, of course, but that was an exception. Almost every summer since 2001 has been definitely on the wet side here in Vermont.

Flash flooding, always a risk in hilly New England, have gotten more common. The summers of 2011 and 2013 were especially destructive in that regard.

The ground now is very wet. If a particularly heavy burst of rain comes through in the next couple weeks at least, we're in for another flash flood threat.

Stay tuned.

Not Cindy, But A Very Wet Day Up Here In New England. Flash Flooding?

UPDATE



This graphic/radar image from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington, Vermont shows heavy rain over northern
New York and Vermont early this morning, with more downpours
looming to our west for later today.

A flash flood watch has been issued for a strip of north central Vermont, basically and roughly within 30 miles either side of Route 2.
The flash flood watch also covers a good chunk of northern New York.

The rain really came down hard in this region this morning, with up to two inches of rain reported.

The ground is soaked, and more downpours loom.
The warm front that caused the heavy rain has moved to the north, and we're in very, very humid air. Any showers and storms that form will bring torrential rains, and flash flooding is now a real risk in much of northern Vermont.

As of 12:30 p.m., weather radar is frankly ominous. Heavy downpours were lurking in New York state and strengthening. Bands of heavy downpours look like they might want to repeatedly move over the same spots.

Flash flooding, as the name implies, happens fast, so be aware of gushes of water coming down from the hills. Don't drive through flooded roads, because even shallow water can sweep a car away, and you don't know if the road is washed away beneath the water.

Take care this afternoon, northern Vermont and northern New York peeps!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I awoke in northwest Vermont today to gusty south winds, bursts of heavy rain and, occasionally, the sound of thunder.

Tropical Storm Cindy?  

Nah, no and nope, but the now-deceased tropical storm is having some influence on the weather here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

There was impressive band of rain and thunderstorms all the way from Wisconsin, across Michgan, through southern Ontario, across northern New York and on into Vermont and the rest of New England early this morning.

That was a very active warm front coming through. Some warm fronts, like this one, produce a lot of precipitation. Others go by with little fanfare.

This warm front, in part, had some moisture to work with from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, which was still located in the South and prompting flood watches today from Louisiana to southwest Pennsylvania.

By the way, Cindy did cause flooding and some tornadoes Thursday after coming ashore and weakening to a very wet tropical depression. One tornado caused damage and injuries around Birmingham, Alabama.

There might not be much flooding in Vermont or northern New England today, but some of us have already gotten pretty wet, and will get wetter.  If there is any flooding, it's most likely across northern Vermont and New York, which got the biggest soaking this morning, with more than an inch of rain.

And those storms this afternoon will be torrential. Plus, I saw one weather model that showed up to five inches of rain in parts of  the northern third of Vermont today, which would cause some pretty substantial flash flooding.

That's not a definite, but it's something to watch. It depends on whether thunderstorms develop and repeatedly go over the same areas. If there is flash flooding today, the best bet is north of Route 2.

Later this morning, the warm front will have lifted into Canada, taking its occasionally heavy rain with it.

However, we will be in a warm, somewhat unstable and very humid atmosphere, due, again, in part to the remnants of Cindy still sitting well to our south.  The lull in the rain late this morning and maybe early this afternoon will come to an end.

With a cold front well to our west, but approaching us, showers and thunderstorms will break out again this afternoon and evening.

 Unlike the morning's rain, which pretty much gave everybody in the northern half of New York and most of Vermont a good soaking, the showers and thunderstorms later today will be more hit and miss.

Some people will only get a little more rain, while others get blasted by torrential downpours. It's a roll of the dice.  Again, northern Vermont is the most likely scene of this.

It's possible some storms later today could end up being severe, too, with local strong gusty winds and hail.

This won't be a big time severe event. The atmosphere just isn't right to produce lots of organized, intense storms.   Still, a  few storms could get somewhat wild. But the bigger story will be the heavy rainfall today.

We'll keep showers in the forecast Sunday through Monday, though none of these days will be a washout. Just hit and miss stuff like we had over much of the past week.

Looks like it might turn warmer and drier for a couple days later next week, though.