Weird Thunderstorms In Norway and Siberia

A large isolated thunderstorm in Siberia recently
looked like a very bad nuclear bomb going off. 

Last week, there must have been quite a lightning bolt in Norway.

Hunters discovered 323 dead reindeer in the Hardangervidda region of Norway, home to thousands of reindeer. 

Apparently, a lightning bolt did them in.

Turns out, this isn't a once in a lifetime event for groups of animals dying in lightning strikes. Writing in Forbes, Marshall Shepherd documented several cases of lightning killing herds of animals.

About 600 sheep in Utah once died in a lightning storm. Just this past May, 21 cows were killed in McCook County, South Dakota when lightning struck as they were feeding out of a metal container. About a decade ago, a giraffe died from a lightning strike at Walt Disney World in Florida.

So yes, lightning is dangerous for us humans. It's also a risk for animals caught out in thunderstorms.

Lightning is something to be afraid of, and people in Siberia recently found something else to fear.

As you can see in the photo in this post, a distant thunderstorm photographed recently near the Siberian city of  Kemerovo really, really looked like a nuclear explosion, and of course such explosions are something to fear.

Local emergency services were inundated with calls from people who were afraid a nuclear war had started and everybody was about to die.

Happily, this was just a thunderstorm.  Nobody died.

Usually, the anvil top of a thunderstorm, that big outstretched flare of clouds you see at the top of the storm, heads mostly in one direction or another, as winds blowing near the top of the storm push the clouds along.

Another view of the scary, but basically harmless
mushroom shaped cloud in Siberia that was NOT a nuclear
explosion, but just a thunderstorm. 

Upper level winds must have been near calm above this thunderstorm, so the anvil top of the storm pushed out equally in all directions.

The storm was also isolated, with no sign of other storms developing around it, which is also unusual.

The atmosphere must have been "capped," meaning a warm layer of air was preventing the updrafts that usually lead to thunderstorms. 

However, something made the air start rising forcefully where that thunderstorm developed, so the rising air broke through the "cap" and continued upward, creating this big thunderstorm.

I'm guessing the thunderstorm was probably severe, or at least borderline so, with strong, gusty winds, maybe hail, torrential downpours and dangerous lightning.

But, on the bright side, it wasn't nuclear. It was just beautiful instead. Phew! 

Hermine Hits Florida, Will Hassle East Coast For Days

Hermine in Georgia this morning. Much of the East Coast
is in for coastal flooding and damaging, battering
waves all weekend from this thing. 

5 PM FRIDAY UPDATE:

Tropical storm watches have been upgraded to tropical storm warnings as far north as Sandy Hook, New Jersey.

Tropical storm watches extend further north to Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

1 PM FRIDAY UPDATE:

Hermine is going to be a very dangerous storm along the East Coast over the next few days.

Really bad storm surges and coastal flooding is a good bet from North Carolina to as far north as southern New England over the next few days. 

As I noted in this morning, (in the discussion below) Hermine now inland over South Carolina, will head off the North Carolina coast Saturday morning.

From there, it will probably turn into this weird tropical storm/mid-latitude storm off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. It will feed off the record warm offshore waters and basically stall, or at the very least move only very, very slowly northward.

Hermine could regain hurricane force strength again while off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend.

Here's the takeaway: If you were planning on going to the Jersey Shore, or pretty much anywhere on the East Coast between Georgia and New England for a Labor Day beach getaway, don't even bother.

Stay home.

If you insist on going to the shore, stay out of the water!!!! The rip tides and currents and waves will be extreme, and you will die if you go in for a swim. Don't be stupid, ya hear?

Tidal surges could reach four feet high along the New Jersey shore, with coastal flooding all the way as far north as Long Island and Rhode Island. Tropical storm watches are up for these areas, as well as the Jersey Shore, Delaware and coastal Maryland.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect further south.

Since Hermine will be hanging around off the coast for days, repeated high tide cycles and constant, battering waves have the potential to cause severe damage along many parts of the East Coast. This could well be the worst disaster in New Jersey since Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and possibly one of the worst storms in that region's history.

The odd thing is, depending upon where Hermine sets up and stalls, there might not be much rain in some of the Northeastern coastal areas that could have a lot of destruction along the shore.
It could rain hard, but there might even be times the sun is out while strong winds and battering waves trash coastal properties.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

As expected, Hurricane Hermine came ashore in northwestern Florida as a Category One hurricane with sustained winds of at least 75 mph.

Early reports indicate roofs and porches have been blown off houses in the hardest hit areas, there's extensive flooding and power failures are widespread. The majority of Tallahassee, for instance, has no electricity.



Hurricane Hermine eroded this Alligator Point, Florida
road well before the storm made landfall.

The Tallahassee Democrat reports extensive damage in Taylor County, Florida, with a storm surge that reached as much as ten feet high.
Nearly 19 inches of rain - incredible - fell near Baskin, Florida and several towns reported more than a foot of rain.

Hermine is inland now, and weakening, because hurricanes always do when they go inland.  But it's still going to cause a lot of flooding, strong winds, and the risk of tornados in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas today and tonight.

Hermine, or some weird post-tropical hybrid version ot it, will contnue to create problems for the next several days.

Hermine will track toward the northeast just inland from the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas today and Saturday, then head back out to sea, then probably stall off the Mid-Atlantic coast for days.

Its path north is going to be blocked by a strong ridge of high pressure over northern New England and southern Quebec.

There's a lot of uncertainty as to exactly where Hermine will slow down or stall, so that makes forecasts tricky. For now, tropical storm watches extend all the way north to New Jersey.

Coastal areas from Long Island south can expect storm surge flooding, battering waves and beach erosion through several tide cycles this weekend, so the damage could be nasty.

How bad things get depends upon how close to the coast Hermine or its post-tropical version of itself gets. If it's close to shore, it will be bad. But then again, if it stall further offshore, it will feed off record warm waters, and possibly strengthen.

Either way, you're screwed.

You'll hear talk of Hermine becoming a non-tropical storm, then maybe taking on tropical characteristics again if it sits over that  warm water off the coast.  

The distinction of whether Hermine will be a tropical storm or a regular big storm is really not important in a practical sense. Coastal areas, especially in places like New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia better brace themselves. No matter what you call the storm, tropical or not, it could prove dangerous for those along the coast.

It would be nice if Hermine went a little further north and dumped a lot of rain on drought-stricken southern New England, but at this point, it doesn't look like it will rain all that much there.

For my Vermont readers, since I'm based in Vermont, Hermine won't really have any effects on us. That ridge of high pressure that will block Hermine from moving north will be overhead or close to it over the weekend, so expect sunshine and mild weather in the Green Mountain State.

Hermine might throw some high level clouds our way, especially Monday, but it won't be a big deal. If you're planning a trip to the New England coast, though, beware of terribly dangerous rip currents and possible local coastal flooding.

Tropical Storm Hermine A Big Flood Threat To Florida, Southeast

Northwestern coastal Florida could face storm surge
flooding like this from Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Hermine. 

After teasing forecasters for weeks, Tropical Storm Hermine blossomed yesterday in the Gulf of Mexico. She's strengthening as she heads towards northwestern Florida, where the storm will cause a big mess.

There's an excellent chance Hermine will be a hurricane by the time it hits the coast tonight.  As of 8 a.m. today, maximum sustained winds in Hermine had gone up to 65 mph.

Landfall is expected around midnight, or a little after. The weather will worsen all day today in northern Florida.

Basically, Hermine is causing every kind of tropical storm-type threat imaginable. The storm surge threat has gotten worse, with flooding from the ocean possible reaching four to seven feet above normal tide levels.

There's a LOT of low lying property along and near the northwestern Florida beaches, so you can imagine there will be a lot of damage.

People ought to get out of the way of this storm surge pretty darn quick, if they haven't already. That's because some storm surge flooding will probably start before Hermine's strong winds and heaviest rains arrive.

The rain is another problem. Some areas in northern Florida and southern Georgia could get a foot of it.  Which means people who are inland enough to escape the storm surge flooding from the ocean will still get inundated.

Yep, this will be yet ANOTHER flood disaster for the nation.

The wind will cause quite a bit of damage, too, since some coastal spots in northern Florida could see gusts to 85 mph. Power will be out for days.  That'll be a lovely lack of air conditioning in sultry early September Florida. Of course, for the people whose houses flood, no air conditioning is the least of their worries.

Hurricane warnings are up for northwestern Florida, including the cities of Tallahassee and Apalachicola. Tornadoes are also possible in much of Florida and parts of Georgia and South Carolina as Hermine approaches, then moves through.

It looks like Hermine will then move along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, then offshore a bit while probably turning into a non-tropical storm.

But don't let that conversion to a non-hurricane type storm. There are signs it could stall off the mid-Atlantic coast, throwing battering waves and high tides against the shore starting Sunday and possibly continuing for days.

Expect lots of beach erosion and possibly some structural damage. And, unfortunately, maybe some deaths among those foolhardy enough to go into the water for a swim amid the extreme rip currents and waves all along the East Coast.

How bad things get depends upon where Hermine or ex-Hermine stalls, if it stalls. The closer to the coast it meanders, the worse things will be.

Tropical Trouble: Florida, Hawaii Most Under Threat Now

Thunderstorms are firing up big time in that
weather disturbance heading toward Florida.
It's an indication that there's a good chance it
will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine later today 

I know I've been posting awfully frequently about tropical disturbances and hurricanes ane such, but it is the peak of the hurricane season.

Things are busy and heating up even more, so it's a good idea to stay up to date.

The biggest threats for bad tropical weather right now are in Florida and Hawaii.

There's now even a slight chance a wannabe tropical storm could bring some drought relief to southeastern New England. That's a long shot, but it's something to hope for.

Here are the details:

FLORIDA'S WANNABE HERMINE

That hyped storm that we've been talking about that came across the Caribbean and into the southern Bahamas, Cuba and south of Florida never developed as so many had forecasted.

Now this thing has gotten into the Gulf of Mexico and looks like it's finally getting its act together. Upper level winds that had been tearing the wannabe tropical storm apart have waned a bit. The water beneath the storm is incredibly warm.

Satellite photos this morning show that this thing has really revved up, with big thunderstorms now nearer to the center of the little storm's circulation. I really think the National Hurricane Center later today will upgrade this - finally - to a tropical storm and name it Hermine.  (Not to be confused with Hermoine from the Harry Potter series.)

Forecasts call for Wannabe Hermine to move north, then northeastward toward the Big Bend of Florida. That's the spot in Florida on the northwestern side of the state where the peninsula ends and turns west to form the state's panhandle.

There's a chance that Wannabe Hermine could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it hits that northwestern corner of Florida.

So, that region is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. At this point, the storm cold cause storm surges in low-lying sections of northwestern Florida of three to five feet in some spots

Worse, Wannabe Hermine could easily drop five, ten, even 15 inches of rain on northwestern Florida, which would create a big flash flood problem.

Things are getting a little more interesting regarding what happens after that with Wannabe Hermine.

It looks like it will emerge into the Atlantic Ocean along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. If it remains offshore and not inland in those states, it could restrengthen after crossing northern Florida, or at least maintain its power.

Heavy rains could set off flooding in parts of Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend.

Most computer models take Wannabe Hermine off the coast and away from the United States after it gets past North Carolina. But a few computer models want to take it toward coastal New England.

Though that would wash out Labor Day plans in southeastern New England, that area is experiencing an nasty drought and could use a good dousing.  The chances that Wannabe Hermine would make it to New England seem low at the moment, but it's something to watch.

Another thing to consider that's VERY IMPORTANT: If you're planning a beach trip anywhere along the East Coast, including all of New England's shoreline, there's going to be dangerous rip currents, waves and such will make going in the water dangerous

What with Wannabe Hermine, powerful Hurricane Gaston way off the coast and Tropical Depression #8 heading away from North Carolina, the seas along the East Coast are going to be way, way stirred up. Be careful!!

HAWAII TROUBLE:

Hurricane Madeline is going to go just south of the Big Island of Hawaii this afternoon. It was a major hurricane, but luckily, it's rapidly weakening.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester churning toward
Hawaii yesterday. They're both on a weakening
trend today but still pose a big threat to Hawaii.  

Still, this is a big deal for Hawaii. The Big Island in particular can expect damaging winds, storm surges on the coast and nasty flash floods today as Madeline goes by. The rest of the Hawaiin chain is in for rough weather today, too.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Lester is expected to pass just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands later Friday and Saturday, with more wind, flooding and trouble like that.

I don't think there's ever been an occasion before where two hurricanes threaten Hawaii so much within just a few days of each other. Really nasty.

This Will Be Burlington, Vermont's Hottest August On Record

Boaters seek cool Lake Champlain breezes on
a very warm evening on August 8 near Burlington,
Vermont. This will be the area's hottest August on record.

Did you sweat much this month? Even in normally cool and comfortable Vermont?

There's a reason for that. August, 2016 is a shoo-in for the hottest August on record.

It looks like the average temperature for the month will come in somewhere in the ballpark of 73.5 to 73.7 degrees, depending on what the temperature does today and tomorrow.

Either way, that would comfortably (or maybe uncomfortably) exceed the previous record for the hottest August, which was 73.1 degrees in 1947.

That might come as a surprise, since we didn't have too much in the way of extreme heat. Oh, sure it was 96 degrees on August 11. But only one other day this month made it above 90.

This month, the warmth and heat was consistent. There weren't any blasts of cool Canadian air that we normally get on occasion during the summer.

So far, 23 days made it to 80 degrees or more in Burlington during August It hasn't gotten any cooler than 52 degrees, in a month that historically has been as chilly as 35 degrees (in 1965.)

A warm August, 2016 evening along the shores of
Lake Champlain in Burlington, Vermont.  

May, June and July were warmer than average, too. Which prompted a remark by somebody where I work that I don't think I've ever heard in Vermont before, given our long winters: "I'm done with summer. We've had too much of it."

Personally, I wouldn't go that far, but it has been a pretty warm summer. It's gotten to 90 degrees or more 12 times, not a record, but twice the number we normally get in a summer.

By the way, although I haven't examined it closely, I'm sure other cities in the Northeast will also have their hottest August on record this year, or at least come close.

For those of you who DO want a break from summer, I have some good news. A cold front will coem through Wednesday, and September will open with a spell of sort of autumnal weather.

Highs Thursday and Friday in Vermont will only get into the 60s to maybe a few low 70s and overnight lows will drop down into the 40s. Such weather is perfectly normal for early September, but still, it will be the chilliest it's been since about the third week in May.

Summer partisans can also cheer: It'll warm up again as we go through the Labor Day weekend.

Torrential Thunderstorms In Far Northern Vermont, Rest Stays Dry

A stromg thunderstorm with an impressive
shelf cloud rolls into St. Albans, Vermont Sunday evening. 

Some impressive thunderstorms blossomed ahead of a fairly weak cold front Sunday afternoon, prompting a flurry of severe storm and flash flood warnings.

The most intense aspects of the storms was the rainfall, which was absolutely torrential. South Hero, Vermont reported 2.1 inches of rain in just one hour.

Although it has been quite dry, the incredible rainfall rates with these storms prompted flash flood warnings across a stripe of far northern Vermont near the Canadian border.

Another reason for the warnings is that a few waves of thunderstorms went over the same general region.. Ultimately, all I found in the form of flooding was small streams at bank full and relatively minor erosion along the sides of some roads and many driveways.

The force of the water popped manhole covers off in downtown St. Albans.

The thunderstorms stayed far to the north. Burlington, Vermont, just 30 or so miles south of the drenching rain zone, received just a trace of rain. Pretty much all of Vermont, south of Route 2 had no rain, so the dry times continue.

Shelf cloud, omimous scud clouds and a heavy rain
shaft behind them Sunday evening, St. Albans, Vermont.  

Some of the storms got severe, especially a last wave that came through in the evening.

That wave prompted a pretty amazing, fast moving shelf cloud that many saw coming in northwestern Vermont.

 Raw video of it that I took as it came through St. Albans, Vermont is at the bottom of this post.

The storms took down trees and power lines along a long path through northern Vermont, all the way from  South Alburgh on Lake Champlain, where falling tree branches pierce a roof, to Lunenburg, on the New Hampshire border, where fallen trees blocked Route 2.

The intensity of the storms came as a surprise, at least to me. We did know ahead of time that the presence of the cold front and favorable upper level winds would create an environment that would favor isolated severe storms.

But these were more widespread and intense than I thought they'd be.

The cold front has passed through, and no severe weather is expected in Vermont in the foreseeable future.

Here's the video of the St. Albans shelf cloud. Especially starting midway through the video, you can see how fast the cloud rolled in.:

Five Years Ago Today, Irene Caused Epic Vermont Disaster

People try to save produce from a Waitsfield, Vermont
farm stand during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. 

Five years ago today,  Hurricane Irene, weakening to a tropical storm, unleashed almost unprecedented torrents of rain on upstate New York and Vermont, leading to one of the worst weather disasters in the region's history.

The storm killed six Vermonters, left 531 miles of state roadways impassable and closed no fewer than 34 state highway bridges.

The Winooski River blasted through the Vermont State Office complex in Waterbury, where much of the state's government functions happen.

There's a good series of articles and photos on the Vermont Disaster Recovery site you should take a look at.

While there are still signs of damage, it's hard to see vestiges of the destruction now that five years have gone by.  Homes have been repaired, or if they were destroyed, torn down.

Some places near rivers will never hold homes or businesses again: They've been turned into parkland. Why rebuild in a place that might flood again?

 Certain repairs were incredibly fast. Vast stretches of Route 4, the main east-west highway through central Vermont, washed away.

Yet, I remember just two and a half weeks after the disaster, Rachel Maddow declared Route 4 in Mendon that day's nominee for  "Best New Thing In The World" 

What had been a gaping canyon left by Irene was now a functioning two lane road again.

You can still sense a certain unease. Will there be another Irene? Has the weather gone out of whack? Has climate change brought us a new normal? After all, we've had lots of weirdness in the weather since Irene.

We've had other floods, most notably in central Vermont in 2013. We just had by far the warmest winter on record earlier this year. What's with this long, long, long spell of dry weather that's been going on for months now?

Whether or not any of this has anything to do with global warming, Irene certainly got Vermonters talking about climate change.

New England has had other tropical systems as strong as Irene, so the storm itself was not unprecedented.

But 2011 was wet, wet, wet, even before Irene. That's what made the flooding so destructive. The ground couldn't take much more water as Irene's downpours arrived. The rain just rushed off Vermont's hills and mountains, creating the state's worst disaster since 1927

That year -- 2011 -- had already brought disastrous weather to Vermont. Several flash floods caused extensive damage during the spring of 2011, especially in the Lamoille River Valley and around Barre, Vermont.

Lake Champlain rose to a record flood, causing additional multi millions of dollars in flood damage along its shores.

Ironically, on the fifth anniversary of Irene, Lake Champlain seems to be closing in on a record low level, due the winter that wasn't earlier this year, and consistently dry, hot, sunny weather since early spring.

Just recently, a Congressional Budget Office report warned that damage from severe weather in future decades is expected to get worse and worse as climate changes. That echoes many other scientific and government reports.

It does so even as we watch other parts of the nation get wrecked in big weather disasters, like what we saw in Louisiana this month.

"When it comes to addressing climate change, the most expensive option is to nothing at all.....We have a financial and moral obligation to combat climate change. We must aggressively transition away from fossil fuels to energy efficiency and sustainable energy," Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said recently.

Vermont tried to rebuild  - to the extent the federal government allowed -- with bigger culverts, stronger bridges, better protections against floods, since the assumption from Gov. Peter Shumlin's administration is storms would just keep getting worse in Vermont and everywhere else from climate change.

The state legislature approved measures that would get towns to build larger culverts or, even better, open bottom structures that would allow road beds overhead to better withstand future forceful floods like the one Irene unleashed.

The other shoe will drop at some point, and Vermont will face another disaster. We are resilient and have proven ourselves more than capable of recovering.

But still, every threatening storm does raise that Irene fear just a tiny bit, doesn't it?