More Tornadoes In New NE "Tornado Alley" And Amplified Pattern Spells Trouble

A likely tornado in the dark clouds yesterday in western Pennsylvania
Photo came from Erie News via Twitter.

In this year in which the nation as a whole has had relatively few tornadoes, the new tornado alley - the Northeast - delivered again with some new twisters on Tuesday.

TUESDAY NORTHEAST TORNADOES

Tornadoes touched down in Pennsylvania and possibly southern New York and southwestern Connecticut yesterday, continuing a severe weather trend that's been going on since at least May in the Northeast.

The worst tornado was in western Pennsylvania, where a nursing home was struck. There were no injuries directly caused by the tornado, but two residents were taken to a local hospital for other medical issues and the other 160 residents were evacuated to a nearby, undamaged middle school.

In Connecticut, a possible tornadoes dropped large trees across a section of the Merritt Parkway. As you can imagine on that road, it caused some major traffic tieups.

So far there are three reports of tornadoes in Pennsylvania, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, but I expect there will be more confirmed reports of twisters in the three states I mentioned as meteorologists conduct damage assessments.

There were certainly plenty of tornado warnings and videos of possible tornadoes and/or tornado damage popping up on social media from Pennsylvania, New York and Connecticut, so I'm sure those investigating meteorologists will have their work cut out for them today.

Through October 1, before Tuesday's tornado outbreak, the Storm Prediction Center had counted 877 tornadoes across the United States so far this year. Not counting whatever happened on Tuesday,

In the Northeast, there have been 33 tornadoes this year, which is a small percentage of the U.S. total but still impressive for this part of the country. Through Monday, again not counting Tuesday's weather, Pennsylvania has had 17 tornadoes, New York had seven, Connecticut, 6, then three each in Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

There have been no tornadoes here in Vermont, just for the record. And just for the record, you would have needed to be in warm, humid air to get the severe weather yesterday. A west-to-east weather front was to the north of the tornado zone but south of Vermont. That confined the muggy air well to the south of us.

That's why we here in Vermont just got rain on Tuesday, with nothing extreme or dangerous.

"AMPLIFIED PATTERN" SPELLS TROUBLE

Anytime you hear meteorologist describe and "amplified weather pattern," take that to mean someone is going to get in trouble with rough weather.  

This is the kind of jet stream pattern we're entering the
next few days. A dip in the west, a northward bulge in
the east and storminess in the middle. This map is
NOT a current forecast. It's just meant as a
schematic to illustrate the situation

Enter the latest amplified pattern.

This "amplified" stuff means the jet stream is much more wiggly than usual. More specifically, an amplified pattern features unusually deep southward dips in the jet stream, paired with unusually far north bulges nearby.  

In this case, we're setting up for a deep dip in the jet stream, or trough, in the western United States and a deep northward bulge, otherwise known as a ridge in the East.

When you get that type of set up, there's usually a lot of stormy weather in the area between the trough and the ridge. (You might also see the potential for record chill in the trough and record heat in the ridge, and that could happen this time, too.)

But the main trouble is in the middle of the nation. It starts today. There is a risk of tornadoes in Wisconsin, and the chance of a strong one. So people need to keep their heads up there.

Worse, this ridge in the east, will get air flowing off the Gulf of Mexico and up through the middle ofthe nation.  There's a real risk of heavy rain and flooding from Texas to the western Great Lakes next week. Seven day forecasts call for three to eight inches of rain in this region, with higher amounts possible.

Much of this area has been drenched by heavy rain much of the summer and early autumn, to that's why flooding will be a real risk. There will be chances of severe weather and more tornadoes next week as well.

This  pattern also means there's the risk of heavy snow in the northern Rockies, possibly extending east into the western Dakotas.

Here in Vermont, we will be under that eastern ridge, so the weather here in our immediate future looks benign. Rainfall will be light over the next week, and temperatures will start to trend above normal. The only cool day in our forecast is Friday, when highs will be in the 50s. That's not unusual for early October.

By  next week, we Vermonters could be looking at Indian Summer weather with temperatures in the 70s. Stay tuned on that one.