A Very Wet Week On East Coast Next Week?

This precipitation forecast map shows widespread precipitation
amounts of over three inches (in red) over the next seven days. 

Forecasters are becoming increasingly confident that it will be a very wet week along the East Coast next week.

That raises the possibility of flash flooding in a few areas, due to the type of heavy rain that seems likely.

This won't be a steady, moderate rain that soaks things down but doesn't cause many problems with high water.

Instead, this will largely take the form of spotty, very torrential downpours, the kind that put city streets under water instantaneously - kind of like what Worcester, Massachusetts and other cities endured during thunderstorms Monday.

This is also the kind of rain that will send gigantic gushes of water down hillsides and mountainsides.

The set-up will be a strong Bermuda High sending thick moisture northward up the East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be somewhere near the eastern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. It will be in the form of a fairly sharp dip in the jet stream for this time of year.

This setup favors very humid air over the East with lots of potential for torrential downpours. The dip in the jet stream means disturbances will try to enter this humid air and set off these intense downpours.

It's impossible this far out to determine exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, when it will fall and for how long. Let's just say there's a potential for torrential downpours at any time, anywhere in much of the East Sunday through at least Thursday.

Up here in Vermont, I know we've heard this song before. The weather pattern looks promising for some good rains to ease the worsening dryness out there, and then we don't receive much rain at all.

The good news with this is we will be under threat of weather disturbances that would trigger showers and thunderstorms for a long time, not just part of a day like we've had all summer. So we'll have several chances at receiving some healthy rains.

The storms will be hit and miss, but if the hit and miss variety lingers over us for days as expected, the chances of being hit go up.

Because it will be very, very humid here in Vermont, too, this isn't exactly the type of rain we need. It'll often come in short, sharp downpours, instead of a slow, steady drizzle. Although everything around us is dry, if you get a two inch dump of rain in an hour, a flash flood can still result in urban areas and near small mountain streams and creeks.

We'll have to watch out for that next week. Especially if you go up in the mountains to camp and hike.

Between now and Saturday, it will remain super sunny and dry. We're starting off cool, with a record low of 35 degrees this morning in Saranac Lake, New York. A record low of 44 degrees was tied at Montpelier, Vermont.

As I write this at 8 a.m. Thursday, it is warming up very quickly and most of us will hit the low 80s by this afternoon.

Friday looks hot and dry, with highs well into the 80s, with a couple spot 90s in the warmest valleys. Humidity will remain quite low on Friday, so it won't be too bad.

Humidity will begin to increase Saturday through Sunday, and by Monday, the humidity will be awful. It'll stay awful all week amid the expected showers and storms. Daytime temperatures next week will be in generally in the low 80s, which is close to normal. But again, the humidity will make it feel worse.

I also hope you slept well in the cool air last night. Because next week we'll have a long streak of terribly oppressive, muggy nights to deal with.

It's summer, after all.