Storm Threat Continues Today, Saturday For Some Of Us

Stormy skies over Lake Champlain last month. Similar
 scenes are possible today and Saturday.

As expected, scattered thunderstorms kept bubbling up, dying and bubbling back up on Thursday, thanks to an ample supply of humidity and instability in the atmosphere.

I don't have much in the way of severe weather reports, but there were a few flash flood warnings issued amid the slow moving storms, especially in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont.

No widespread damage was reported, but I'm sure people in a few spots are dealing with eroded driveways and such.

It's rinse and repeat today.

The forecast philosphy hasn't changed. Most of today across Vermont will pretty much be a carbon copy of Thursday, except it might be a little breezier and the storms might - might be a little more widespread than yesterday's.

Again, they'll start to develop in the mountains around noon and continue to bubble and die and be reborn all afternoon and into the evening.

Once again, the vast majority of us won't get any severe weather or flooding, and some of us will get no rain at all. But a few pockets across New York, Vermont, New Hampshire will get local damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.

A stronger batch of storms will start to enter New York's St. Lawrence Valley this evening, and some of those will be accompanied by damaging winds. But the storms will weaken as the sun sets. By the time the line reaches Vermont later tonight, there might be some gusty winds and heavy downpours, but that's about it.

On Saturday, the timing of the cold front is still thought to be such that the best chances of damaging storms would from central Vermont eastward

As the cold front comes across New York state in the morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont is thinking thunderstorms could get going in the eastern Adirondacks in the late morning and then head east.

By the time these thunderstorms march east into the Champlain Valley and especially into central Vermont just ahead of the cold front, some will get strong, with a risk of gusty winds and hail once again. This stuff will then head off into New Hampshire and Maine toward evening, and we'll be done with this relatively active weather.

Expect a coolish and nice Sunday, by the way.

Storm Threat In Vermont, Rest Of Northeast Through Thursday

Screen grab from a WCVB report on Wednesday's
 flooding in Boston. Scattered severe storms and pockets
of flash flooding could occur again anywhere in New
England today through Saturday. 

Wednesday was a gorgeous summer day in Vermont and other parts of New England - unless it wasn't.  

We entered a weather pattern on Monday in which the weather is generally good, but some areas get some big thunderstorms.

One town gets drenched and blasted by a big thunderstorm. Meanwhile, two towns over, it's wall-to-wall sunshine. It's definitely hit and miss season.

This pattern intensified Wednesday, and will continue to do so today and Friday and Saturday, too.  Which means some of us will get a very nasty thunderstorm or two, and other areas will stay dry.

It will eventually rain everywhere during this period, but some of us will only get a little rain, while others will be at risk of flash flooding. You can't tell much more than an hour or two in advance who gets what.

But at least we can give you the general scenario.

Wednesday, the worst of the storms were concentrated in southern New England, the Hudson Valley of New York below Albany and to a lesser extent, the western Adirondacks.

In this weather pattern, storms develop, intensify super fast, then die out. They're also slow movers, so you get torrential downpours and flash flooding. All of these storms also have the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

The storms Wednesday, and the ones expected today and tomorrow, also tend to contain a LOT of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

One such storm lingered over the Boston, Massachusetts area Wednesday afternoon, causing all kinds of problems with flash flooding, downed trees, lightning strikes and fires.

The Logan Airport arrival tunnel had two feet of water in it, with cars stuck. Other roads in and around Boston had as much as three feet of water on them. The Boston Globe said the Dorchester section of Boston was particularly hard hit, with about 3.5 inches of rain pouring down there in a very short time.

Now there's today, and the weather situation is almost identical to Wednesday.  Chances are thaaat different spots will be hardest hit than those that got it Wednesday. That's just the randomness of where the storms get going.

My guess is the thunderstorms are most likely over the Adirondacks, and probably over the Green Mountains. But a gusher could pop up anywhere, at anytime between noon and sunset today.

By noon, we in Vermont and elsewhere in New England will see those towering clouds that are the hallmark of developing storms. Just like yesterday, some of these storms will grow tall and strong, and move very slowly.

Whoever gets under any one of these storms will see quite a bit of weather drama, while maybe three miles up the road, they might hear a low rumble of thunder and that's it. Again, it's the hit and miss nature of the season.

Keep an eye to the sky, and seek shelter if it looks like a storm is looming. I'm pretty sure a few isolated pockets of Vermont, and most of the rest of the Northeast for that matter, will have some thunderstorm wind damage, and some local flash flooding. Most of us will escape that. A few will not.

Just like last night, the storms will die down tonight after sunset. The heat of the sun is a large part of the fuel for these storms, so when the heat source goes away, so do the storms.

Friday, it's rinse and repeat, with maybe a few changes. It'll still be very warm and humid, and by early afternoon, scattered storms will again erupt. They'll again hit some areas, and avoid others.

However, by late afternoon and evening, a weather front will be approaching northwestern New York, which could organize storms into strong lines containing severe winds and hail.

However, that'll come in toward sunset, and some of the storms' power will ease as they approach Vermont. Showers and storms could come through any time Friday night, but they are unlikely to be severe.

Saturday, the cold front finally comes in. What kinds of storms we get all depends on the timing of that front.

If the cold front comes through in the morning, before the peak heating of the day, there will just be some showers, a few downpours, and a couple rumbles of thunder.

If the cold front holds off until later, we could get some interesting severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

The cold front is coming from the west. Since tit will go through later the more east you go, at this point I think the best chance of severe storms Saturday will be in eastern Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and eastern Massachusetts.

Again, the big caveat: If the cold front speeds up or slows down, that forecast will definitely change.

Bottom line: Just be prepared to take shelter from a potentially strong thunderstorm anytime between now and Saturday evening.

Miami Is Having A REALLY Terrible Summer

Flooding in Miami on Tuesday. The city has been beset
by record heat and tremedous downpours all summer
Photo by Emily Michot/Miami Herald. 

If heat, humidity and torrential downpours aren't your thing, you'd be wise to avoid Florida in the summer.  

That kind of weather is a staple down there.

But even by Miami standards, this summer has been a humdinger, and not in a good way.

First of all, Miami just completed its hottest July on record. Julys are oppressive there anyway, but this was ridiculous.

July there was the hottest on record with a mean temperature of 85.7 degrees. All but one day made it above 90 degrees during the month. On 19 days in July, the temperature at night never made it below 80 degrees.

Ya like rain with your heat? You got it in Miami. July turned out to be just the warmup in that department, with a total of 12.45 inches of rain, almost double the average. Pretty much all that rain came in just five days during the month, including a 5.49 inch deluge on July 12.

Then August hit. Miami SO did not get off to a good start this month. An epic flood swept the area amid all that humidity. Especially in Miami Beach.

The officials rain measurement at the Miami airport yesterday was a lackluster 0.57 inches, but downtown Miam and Miami Beach got seven inches of rain in just a few hours. Many blocks of Miami Beach were underwater, with flooding gushing into businesses and apartments.

The heavy rain also hit during high tide. Sea levels are rising, and high tides often cause minor flooding in Miami Beach anyway. The torrential rains could not drain away easily with the high tide, despite an elaborate array of drain systems the city is installing. That work isn't done yet, and the rain was too heavy to deal with it anyway.

One video showed cars at a flooded intersection, with employees at a Walgreens bailing water out of the store.

By the way, unlike in some media reports, yesterday's Miami flood was not caused by the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily. It was caused by slow moving thunderstorms along a weak but humid weather boundary.

Here's another video of the Miami flood. Pretty rough!

Despite Scary 1st Day, July Weather Pretty Much Normal In Vermont

A sailboat catches a shaft of sunlight near approaching
storms last week on Lake Champlain, off of Burlington, Vermont.

The weather in Vermont and the rest of New England did NOT get off to a very good start on July 1.

Flash flooding damaged swaths of central and southern Vermont, and some counties still might receive disaster declarations.

The flooding extended into New Hampshire, as did severe thunderstorms. Several tornadoes spun up in Maine, of all places.

We braced for a rough weather month. Then....not much.

At the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont, the average temperature for July, 2017 came to 70.6 degrees, which is exactly normal. Rainfall there for the month totaled 3.45 inches, which was a little below normal.

There was a notable lack of temperature extremes during July. The temperature in Burlington never made it to 90 degrees, the first time that's happened in July in many years. The low temperature was 50 degrees, which just happened Sunday.

Scanning National Weather Service data, I see that elsewhere in and around Vermont, conditions varied, as is usually the case. Montpelier reported a slightly cooler and wetter than normal July. No heat there, either. The hottest day of the month in Montpelier only made it to 83 degrees.

Up in St. Johnsbury, July was a full 2.5 degrees chillier than normal, with precipitation just about normal. Morrisville was even more nippy: 3 degrees colder than normal in July.

It looks like August is going to start on the warm side, with temperatures over the next several days running a few degrees above normal.  There is a rising risk of showers and thunderstorms as we move toward the end of this week.

Still, I don't see any signs of extreme weather coming to our region anytime soon. Then again, that type of thing tends to sneak up on you, doesn't it?

Perfect Weekend In Vermont. Elsewhere: Extreme Heat and Big Typhoon

It was wall to wall blue and green in Vermont over the weekend
after what will probably be the best weather of summer, 2017

We hope you got outside here in Vermont this past weekend, as it will go down as the most pleasant summer weather of 2017.

What was not to like? Cool comfortable nights for sleeping, tons of daytime sunshine, stunningly blue skies, low humidity and a nice breeze.

The weather will go downhill a little bit, since it couldn't have gotten any better. But it won't be terrible.

There will be a few hit and miss thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak disturbance comes in.

Most of us won't get a storm, but some towns will. They will be slow movers, so anyone who does get hit could get a torrential downpour, and some street flooding, minor washouts -  that kind of thing.

After a nice Tuesday, there will also be a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms the second half of this week, too.

All this is to say the weather won't be too extreme up here in Vermont. That's not to say other areas of the world are tranquil. That's never the case. Here are two areas to watch:

PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEAT:

According to the Weather Channel, some cities in the Pacific Northwest will flirt will all time record highs this week as a punishing heat wave settles over the region.

Seattle could hit 100 degrees, and if it does, it would be only the fourth time since 1894 that has happened.

The all-time high temperature in Portland, Oregon is 107. At the moment, the National Weather Service is forecasting a high temperature of 107 in Portland on Thursday.

Other cities that could come close to all time record highs are Eugene, Oregon (108), Medford, Oregon, (115) and Yakima, Washington, (110)

It's quite dry in the Pacific Northwest, so there are fears of wildfires in this upcoming heat wave. And just try to fight a fire in 110 degree heat.

The hot weather will extend north into British Columbia, where widespread wildfires have already been burning for more than a month.

According to the CBC, new evacuation orders have gone up for some towns in the Canadian province as fires spread and the heat wave takes hold. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to tour the fire zone this week as the blazes have become a national concern.

By the way, I see no signs of that heat wave making a cross-country trek to the Northeast, so we're still safe from the sweltering. (though it will be warm and humid throughout New England Wednesday through Friday, maybe into Saturday.)

SUPER TYPHOON NORU

The first Catagory 5 storm of the season is lurking off the coast of Japan. Typhoon Noru has increased in strength and now carries winds of 150 mph. It's too soon to tell where, or even if, this big typhoon will hit land, but Japan ought to keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile in Taiwan, tropical storms in the past week have dumped up to three feet of rain in some of the mountainous areas there, causing flooding and landslides.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY:

A tropical depression somewhat unexpectedly formed just off the west coast of Florida last night.  It further strengthened to become Tropical Storm Emily by 8 a.m. this morning. Its highest sustained winds are 45 mph. Forecasters don't think it will get any stronger as it moves east into the west coast of Florida near Tampa later today.

However, heavy rains associated with the Emily could cause flooding.

Emily or its remnants will move off the east coast of Florida in a couple days and head northeast, probably to a position off the North Carolina coast. Strong upper level winds will likely prevent the system from strengthening once it gets out into the open Atlantic.

This storm is not expected to have any effect on us here in New England.

Istanbul, Turkey Gets The Bad Weather Award Of The Week: Extreme Hail, Flooding

People struggle through hail and debris during an epic
storm in Istanbul, Turkey this week.

Istanbul, Turkey probably had the world's worst weather this week.

On Thursday, an epic hail and wind storm and flash flood struck the sprawling city, injuring 10 people and, as you might expect, caused widespread damage.

Countless car and building windows were blown out, a number of roofs collapsed and flooding caused additional destruction.

Thursday's storm also knocked a crane over onto some oil barrels, setting off a large fire. An airliner had to make an emergency landing after hail badly damaged its front cone.

This was the second severe, very damaging storm in Istanbul this month.


Here's hail at least as big as baseballs hitting a street inundated by the flash flood:





Here's a video compilation, which includes outdoor tables at a restaurant disappearing into the maw of the storm, traffic navigating through the hail with car windows blown out, and flash flooding in the streets of Istanbul:





I don't know the veracity of this video, so it could well be a fake joke, fake news, but it's supposedly an Istanbul reporter outside in the storm who is perhaps too dedicated to her job.

Reputable news organizations have also shared this video, so I'm assuming they checked and it's legit. In any event, it's goofy enough to post:

Weird Summer Nor'easter To Drown Parts Of East Coast

Flooding in Pennsylvania this past week. An out of season
nor'easter could make flooding there and in nearby states
worse in the coming two days. Photo by @SeanSimmers from
@Pennlive. 

Nor'easters are normally creatures of the winter.

These strong, windy winter storms are notorious for causing blizzards, tidal floods and high winds in the Mid-Atlantic states and Northeast during the cold season, but these nor'easters usually go away for summer vacation.

Not this year.

A nor'easter is set to flood parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and maybe a few places in the Northeast with torrential downpours.

Nor'easters do sometimes happen in mid-summer, but they're pretty rare. Summer nor'easters, this one included, are not as strong or as windy as their winter counterparts.

However, being summer, and the fact that warm air can hold more moisture than cold, this nor'easter looks like it will be a blockbuster in terms of heavy rain.

The bullseye zone for this looks to be around Maryland, northern Virginia, West Virginia Washington DC, Delaware, southern Pennsylvania and a good chunk of New Jersey.

Flooding seems inevitable there later today and tomorrow. The only question is how bad it will be.

It's already been wet down there lately. For instance,  Harrisburg, Pennsylvania got 4.27 inches of rain in just an hour Sunday, though that was a highly localized event. Still, the region under the flood watch has had a series of soaking thunderstorms over the past week or more.

The storm will stay offshore and be suppressed to the south and east. That means southern New England might get some rain, and some raw and gusty northeast winds out of this thing.

Here in Vermont, we can relax and enjoy a gorgeous weekend, as we will be too far to the north and west to be affected by this nor'easter. The storm might throw some high, thin clouds our way, especially in southern part of the Green Mountain State, but it won't be that big a deal.

We here in Vermont can expect to be in a meteorological sweet spot again today through Sunday, with sun and normal to slightly below normal temperatures and low humidity.

The reason: That nor'easter is going to make an area of high pressure, which contains fair weather, to pretty much stall nearby. The unseasonable nor'easter, then, is giving Vermont a dose of Chamber of Commerce weather.