That Nor'easter? Never Mind, At Least For Most Of Us

All but perhaps southeastern New England look like
they'll probably miss out on scenes like this
Sunday night and Monday and early indications are
a potential nor'easter will miss much of the region.   

A lot of the computer forecasting models are finally getting their act together after days of uncertainty and are coming around to a consensus on that potential New England storm Sunday night and Monday.

The forecasting models' opinion on this system now? It's "Meh."

It appears the would-be nor'easter is going to be weaker and a bit further east than many had expected.

Usually, to get a good nor'easter going, you have to get great coordination between two disturbances in the atmosphere, one coming from the Gulf of Mexico, the other coming from the Great Lakes toward New England.

When these two systems dance perfectly, they combine to form a strong nor'easter. Weather geeks call this "phasing."

Not much phasing with this storm, it turns out, at least when it's still in New England. The system from the west is a slow poke, and won't get to New England in time to really hook up with energy coming from the south.

The "dance," this phasing between the two weather systems won't get going until the storm is up toward Maritme Canada, so they'll get a nice big nor'easter out of this up there. Actually, Down East Maine ought to still keep an eye on this thing, too.

That's not to say there won't be any weather from this semi-nor'easter in New England. There's still a winter storm watch for southeaastern New England Sunday night for up to seven inches of snow.

There's also still a chance of light snow in much of central New England, possibly extending northwest well into New Hampshire and southeastern Vermont. At least maybe. But accumulations won't be horrible.

It'll stay chilly, but not ridiculously so for March through Tuesday. A wavering weather front will cause a bit of rain, snow, and maybe even ice in parts of northern New York, Vermont  and New Hampshire Wednesday and Thursday, but it won't amount to much.

Especially since daytime temperatures will reach the 40s in most of the North Country by then.

There are also signs that on Friday, there might be a brief blast of warm air to bring us back into springlike 50s and 60s, amid a continued chance of rain.

We Still Have No Clue About What That Freakin' Nor'Easter's Gonna Do

One scenario has a nor'easter hugging the coast
Monday, giving almost all of New England
heavy snow. Other scenarios make the
storm miss all but eastern New England.
We'll see.  

All of us weather geeks have been on nor'easter watch for the past few days, wondering what, if anything the potential storm will do to New England come Sunday night and Monday.

We're still wondering as of Friday morning.

The computer forecasting models are still struggling with this thing, giving a range of options from totally going out to sea, to blasting most of New England with heavy snow, except bringing mostly rain to the coast, or something in between.

Forecasting a nor'easter, especially a few days in advance, is tricky. It's even trickier when you're getting toward spring time.

The whole weather pattern in the northern hemisphere is usually in a state of seasonal transition by now, so the weather is even more unpredictable than usual.

Last evening, a lot of the computer models seemed to trend the storm more to the west, which would put virtually all of New England and the New York metro area under an increasing threat of a big late season snowstorm.

This Friday morning, many, but not all, of the computer models are trending a little east again, which would still keep eastern New England under the threat of a big snowstorm, at least for now. But that eastward model trend would place more western and northern areas, like Vermont, under much less of a threat for heavy snow.

Still, nobody is out of the woods. The forecasts could trend west again. Or not.

I hate to give you such short notice of a potential larger storm, but I don't think any meteorologist or forecaster will have a good handle on where this nor'easter will go until tonight, or more likely Saturday morning.

My much earlier than normal new daffodil shoots in my
St. Albans, Vermont gardens got reitroduced to
winter this morning.  

Just keep an eye out and we'll see. Maybe there will be a big snowfall, maybe there won't.

We do know we are transitioning back to winter, at least temporarily today. Early this morning, a cold front arrived where I am in northwestern Vermont, bringing a burst of snow. That front will sweep south today, and it will turn wintry.

As noted yesterday, it won't get above freezing in most of northern New England Saturday. Not odd for mid-March, but a shock after the warm weather we've had, and the springlike showers and thunderstorms we had Thursday.

Even if parts of New England do get a big snowstorm Monday, the snow on the ground won't last. If you get toward this time of year, snow melts fast.

Plus, although it will be somewhat colder than normal through Tuesday, it looks like a warming trend might set in for the second half of next week.

It probably won't get as toasty warm as it has in the past week, but the second half of next week will likely have near to somewhat above normal temperatures.

If it does snow Monday, the warmth late next week would melt the stuff. The weather pattern still looks unsettled, but there will be occasional precipitation next week. Probably nothing on Tuesday, and chances are at this point that anything that falls from Wednesday on would be rain in most spots in the Northeast.

Hail Of A St Patrick's Day In Texas And Elsewhere

A bowl full of big hail in Texas this
morning, via Twitter from @stormchaser4850.
also known as Johnny Kelly.  

Lots of people in the Dallas -Fort Worth area got a rude awakening early this morning when a thunderstorm packing big hail, and lots of it blasted through.

The hail was bigger than golf balls in many locations, and reached tennis ball sized hail in a few places.

As you can imagine, there was lots of damage.  (Videos at the bottom of this post.)

The saddest news by far out of this storm comes from the Fort Worth Zoo, where the hail killed five flamingoes, a pelican, and ibis and a swan, the Dallas Morning News reported.

Medstar, a local ambulance service said all 30 of its ambulances had hail damage. The hail busted out three rear windows of cruisers parked at an Arlington Police Department lot.

The hail hit at the beginning of the morning commute, so there were surely many cars damaged out on the freeways, not to mention many terrified motorists, too.

The thunderstorms continued on into the Deep South today, spewing more hail, some the size of baseballs in Mississippi, and damaging winds.  There were even a couple of tornado reports.

Hail was reported in several areas in New England, too. Most of it was small, but some was about the size of quarters in Maine.

Here's a video of the loud hail pounding Arlington, Texas:



The hail really piled up McKinney, Texas:



Maine got into the hail act Friday, too. Here's the scene in Bowdoinham, Maine:

Almost Every Possible Type Of Weather Happening In New England

Gorgeous, mild springlike morning today as
viewed from my weather deck in. St. Albans,
Vermont. Expect big changes today, though.  

That old saw, "If you don't like the weather in Vermont (or New England) wait a minute, it will change," has never been truer than now.

After an extremely changeable weather day Thursday, except the weather switcheroos to keep coming  even faster and more furiously today. And to a certain extent, the next few days.

To review yesterday, during the early afternoon, it was a springlike 60 degrees in much of Vermont under sunny skies, but a chilly north breeze, a temperature inversion and the cold waters of Lake Champlain kept the Champlain Valley foggy and chilly until early afternoon.

Drive a few miles and the weather will change, I guess.

Then the whole area got sunny and pleasant. Then, abruptly, last evening it turned to rain and a few rumbles of thunder.

Early this Thursday morning, depending on where you were, it was either sunny and mild, or you were mired in dense fog.

If you're out of breath from all these changes, you're out of luck. Today is going to be all over the place.

BUSY DAY TODAY

As mentioned yesterday, a very cold pool of air aloft will contrast with lingering mild air here in the valleys.

Showers and a few scattered thunderstorms will bubble up by this afternoon in Vermont and the rest of New England. Regionwide, some of the showers and storms could get quite rambunctious, with briefly strong, gusty winds and small hail in a few spots.

In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and northern Massachusetts under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today 

It will be all over the place this afternoon. One minute will be sunny, the next stormy. Winds will randomly gust as high as 40 mph at times.  The sun, when it's out, might feel warm and springlike. Next minute, it'll be chilly near one of those gusty showers. Dress for anything today, I guess.

NEXT UP: WINTER RETURNS:

The changes keep coming. Tonight, a sharp cold front comes through with a package of snow showers for northern New England late tonight and Friday morning

Expect some slick conditions on the roads for your morning commute.

Then, we get typical midwinter weather Friday afternoon and Saturday, with temperatures remaining below freezing across the North Country continuously, with lows Friday night in the upper single numbers and teens. Brrr!! Especially in contrast to the mild weather we've had for the past couple of weeks.

Sunday stays pretty cold and dry, then, watch out, maybe:

THAT UNPREDICTABLE NOR'EASTER

I wish I could pin down the fate of that nor'easter than some are predicting for Sunday night and Monday in New England, but I just can't.

The computer models still aren't helping. Some take the nor'easter almost completely out to sea and pretty much leaving New England alone. Others clobber the southeastern part of the region, but don't affect the northwest too badly at all.  Still other forecasting tools say all of New England and eastern New York will get clobbered by a late season snowstorm.

So, we'll have to keep waiting and seeing. Just figure that the more south and east you go on Monday in New England the greater the chance you'll see a winter storm. That's all I can tell ya right now.

If we do get a snowstorm, take heart, people who want spring. Snow tends to melt very, very quickly after a storm this time of year.

After Monday's possible storm,  the weather still looks like it will be unpredictable and active next week. Hang on to your  hat!

A Brief Return To Winter Coming To Vermont, New England Soon

Quite foggy during the morning commute in St. Albans,
Vermont this morning, but it cleared up later.  

It was damp and mild this morning across Vermont and much of the rest of New England this morning.

The fog slowly cleared up as the morning progressed and we will get some breaks of nice sunshine for the rest of the day, along with occasional clouds.

Springlike weather will continue for a another day or two, but big changes are coming that will plunge us back into winter for a few days.

The storm that brought tornadoes to Illinois and a winter storm to northern Minnesota will swing its weather fronts toward New England Thursday.

After a mostly dry, mild day today, rain will blow in tonight. Nothing heavy, but it will be a wet and mild Wednesday night.

Thursday, the part of that storm in the Great Lakes that's in the upper levels of the atmosphere will approach us, leading to a rather interesting day Thursday.

It'll still be mild down where we live, but several thousand to a 10,000 and more feet overhead, it will turn very cold. The contrast will create billowing tall clouds, which will produce quite a few showers, with a few thunderstorms thrown in here and there.

There might even be some small hail and gusty winds with a few of these showers and thunderstorms in Vermont and the rest of New England and northern New York.

Then winter comes back. A cold front will drop through New England Thursday night, changing rain showers to snow showers.

A dusting to a couple inches will pile up in the northern New England valleys Thursday night and Friday, with a few inches in the mountains. That'll fall way too short and way to late to save the ski season, but winter fans will at least get a taste

Temperatures in much of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will struggle to get above freezing Friday and Saturday and overnight lows will be in the upper single numbers and teens.

That's not unusual at all for mid-March, but it will still feel stunning after such a long bout of mild weather.

You've probably heard about the possibility of a nor'easter Sunday night and Monday. Well, that's iffy.

Current forecasting models take the storm too far to the east to seriously affect New England. HOWEVER: The storm is several days away, and sometimes, as new data comes in, we find out the storm will come a lot closer than we originally thought.

So it's still possible parts of New England could get a nasty snow and or rain storm. It's just too soon to tell. Chances are higher that it won't happen, especially the more west and north you go, but it's still something to keep an eye on.

Beyond that, the weather pattern looks active. That's all I can tell you. As is typical in the early spring, when the seasons are in transition, forecasting beyond a few days out is very, VERY difficult

Tornadoes, Some Expected, Some Not.

The tornado that was pretty much unexpected
sweeps across an Ohio field Monday.  

As is often the case as we approach spring, there's been a few tornadoes over the past couple of days in the nation.

There were a few in Arkansas Sunday, and these were remarkably well forecasted. As many as two days before they touched down, forecasts focused right on Arkansas as ground zero for the risk of severe storms.

And that's where almost all of the severe weather occurred. You can see a very eerily lit, striking tornado in Arkansas Sunday at the bottom of this post.

Today, at least one tornado touched down in Ohio. While meteorologists issued a timely warning when it became apparent there was strong rotation indicating a tornado, twisters were considered to be highly unlikely at most in Ohio today.

Sure, forecasters knew there would probably be thunderstorms in Ohio today, tornadoes seemed almost completely out of the realm of possibility.

But there you go. Just because tornadoes are unlikely in any given place when there's thunderstorms, they're not impossible. Scientists know a lot about how tornadoes form, why they form and when they form.

However, they don't know everything about what leads to tornadoes. Ohio today was your proof.

By the way, there's a possibility of a tornado or two today in far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and perhaps far southern Wisconsin.

You'll see a video of the Ohio tornado, below the video of the Arkansas twister. It was filmed near Star City, Arkanas by Live Storms Media:



Next, we have a fairly close range of the narrow EF1 tornado in Ohio that damaged at least one house and several other buildings. Here it dances ominously and seductively across a field:

Spectacular Ice Bridge Collapse in Patagonia

An ice bridge collapses spectacularly at a
Patagonian glacier recently. 

Viral video is circulating this week of a huge ice bridge collapsing at a glacier in the Patagonia area of Argentina.

The video, which you can see below, is quite spectacular. It's worth the watch.

Collapsing glaciers really are stock footage when people want to illustrate the effects of climate change, but in this case, climate change has nothing to do with the drama.

Instead, the glacier advances over Lake Argentina, damming it. The water eventually   tunnels beneath the glacier, forming a giant ice bridge.

The water continues to erode the ice under the bridge until it can no longer support its own weight. Then it collapses in dramatic fashion as you see in the video.

The process at this particular glacier repeats itself roughly once every four years, give or take.

Here's the video: