Yup, We Definitely Had A Chilly November In Vermont

As duly noted already, November turned out to be a cold month in northern New England.

Strong winds whip remaining foliage on trees on
November 1 in St. Albans. That very windy day was
the only truly warm day of the month.  

In Burlington, Vermont, the mean temperature was 35.6 degrees, which was 2.6 degrees chillier than normal, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

It was the coldest departure from normal for any month since January, 2009, which was 4 degrees colder than normal.

The only truly warm day of the month came on the 1st, when Burlington tied a record high for the date of 71 degrees. Just three days later, a record low of 20 degrees was set.

It was definitely a windy month. Half the days during November had wind gusts of 30 mph or more in Burlington. On November 1, the wind gusted to 46 mph in Burlington and more than 50 mph elsewhere in Vermont, which led to some power failures.

It was slightly dry in November, with the total precipitation coming to 2.43 inches, which was 0.7 inches below normal. Because of the chill, we did get some snow, 6.4 inches, which is about an inch above normal for November.

Time will tell if this all portends a harsh winter, or whether we're just getting it all out of the way early.

Media Hog North Dakota Ice Disc Had Vermont Predecessor

The national media has been all over a rare ice disc that formed in the Sheyenne River in North Dakota during a recent cold snap.

This ice disc that recently formed in North Dakota
has gotten a lot of attention recently. Another
nice one formed in Vermont in 2010.  

It's a perfectly symetrical circle of ice slowly rotating in the river. As bits and pieces of river water froze in the cold snap, the ice got caught in an eddy and formed the rare phenomenon.

Ice discs don't form often. They need the perfect combination of the right temperature, the right force of current and a gentle eddy to form.

That combination apparently doesn't happen very often.

As I said, just about every major media outlet has mentioned the North Dakota ice disc. It's such a media hog

A similar ice disc in Vermont got a lot of local attention in 2010, but for some reason didn't become an "A" list celebrity like that one now out there in North Dakota.

But the Vermont disc, recorded along a river in Moscow, Vermont in February, 2010, lives on when you check out YouTube. Here's the (less) famous Vermont ice disc from that winter:

Cold Start To Winter, But Will It Stay That Way?

There's no doubt winter is off to a cold start here in the Great White North, in the upper reaches of New York and New England.

Saturday morning dawned clear and frigid in
St. Albans, Vermont, with a temperature of 5 degrees.  

This morning, temperatures hovered a few degrees either side of zero, with lows bottoming out at 13 below in Saranac Lake, N.Y., one of the Northeast's most serious ice boxes.

There was a record low of 4 above in Montpelier Friday, and it was 2 below in the Capitol City this morning, which wasn't quite a record.

November overall is running about 2.5 degrees below normal in Burlington, where it was 7 degrees above zero this morning.

So, have we started a trend? Is the whole winter going to be frigid?

Not necessarily. Weather patterns often switch in the winter. You might get a cold month, followed by a mild one, followed by wet, then dry.

November this year reminds me of 1989. That year, a massive storm caused a big tornado outbreak in the nation at midmonth, just like this year. That was followed by a persistent cold spell that latest through December.

December, 1989 was the coldest on record in Burlington, Vermont. By New Year's Eve, pretty much everyone was sick of winter.

Then the reversal hit. January, 1990 turned out to be the second warmest on record in Burlington. The snow melted and many days felt like spring.

That's not to say things will turn out that way this year.  The first half of December this year looks like it will be cold, but not as bad as 1989. There's no telling what will happen after that.

Those long range winter forecasts everybody puts out? Take those with an enormous grain of salt.  The long range forecasts aren't much better than a flip of a coin.

Already, some of the forecasts are partially wrong. The Weather Channel said we'd have a relatively warm November. Oh well.

For the record, The Weather Channel says our winter will be kind of mild, but trending cold toward the end of the season. Accuweather's forecast is about the same. The National Weather Service says winter will be on the mild side in the Northeast, while the Old Farmer's Almanac calls for temperatures not out of the ordinary, but quite a bit of snow in New England.

Again, I don't vouch for any of these forecasts.

If you want to know what the winter weather of 2013-14 will be like, talk to me in March. I can give you a very, very accurate rundown then.

Tornadoes Continue To Amaze In Incredible Ways

It's been almost two weeks since a big outbreak of tornadoes smashed the nation's Midwest, and I'm still fascinated by the weird power of tornadoes, both in that outbreak and in general.

Curtrains trapped between the top of a wall and
the roof after November tornadoes in the Midwest.  

In the photo in this post, click on it to make it bigger and look closely.  The Washington, Illinois tornado smashed out a window, making curtains fly outside the house.

The the tornadic winds lifted the roof somewhat, allowing the curtains to fly up over the top of the wall. Then the roof slammed down, trapping the curtains between the top of the wall and the roof. Amazing.

And a video surfaced last week that documents one family's   experience with the tornado. The video strips away the entertainment value, if you will, of watching tornadoes and reveals what the trauma is like when people actually experience one.

In it, you see the tornado approaching and you hear Marc Wells, who is filming,   increasingly alarmed. The daughter, Josie, is already in the basement and Marc  joins her. (The notes on the video say the rest of the family was thankfully out of town)

The screen goes black and you hear them wondering if whatever they're using to protect themselves will save their lives.

Then you hear the tornado ripping apart the house as Josie screams. The tornado only takes a few seconds to do its awful work. Then you see them emerge, and the Josie is obviously completed traumatized as she sees her house is gone.

You get a glimpse of the living room. It had been a home, full of furnishings, decorations and such. Now you see walls missing, and all the contents of the room gone except for a battered ceiling fan and debris,

The man, still filming, is obviously shocked, and can't say anything to comfort Josie.  I mean, what can you say? He urges her to get out of what's left of the house, because it might collapse, and he pans to the rest of the neighborhood, also destroyed.

He's got to see if the neighbors survived. It's a heartrending video. And it shows, more than any tornado video I've seen, how these storms can be so emotionally as well as physically destructive.

 Here it is:

Wednesday Evening Storm Update: Round 2 Now Beginning

If you had to travel in and near Vermont for Thanksgiving, I hope you had a chance to do it this afternoon.

Precipitation turned to drizzle and dense fog
for a time today in St. Albans, making for a gloomy day, but
with better roads. Ice and snow returned as darkness fell.  

There was a break of sorts in the storm, which was expected. Things tapered down to scattered drizzle and fog, and the roads were OK.

If you missed that opportunity, it's too late now, as of 4:30 p.m. Wednesday. The next round of precipitation has moved into Vermont, eastern New York and New Hampshire.

Precipitation has changed to snow as far east as Vermont's Champlain Valley, and the rain will go over to snow by 5 p.m. in central Vermont, 6 p.m. in the east, and probably 7 p.m. in northern New Hampshire

As temperatures drop below freezing, the water on the roads will ice up, as they are just starting to do outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont as of 4:30 p.m. Those icy roads will quickly spread eastward.

If you don't have to drive tonight, don't.  Have some hot chocolate, or make a pie for Thanksgiving dessert tomorrow. It'll be better that way. Trust me.

Those looking for a huge dump of snow are out of luck unless they are along the spine of the Green Mountains and their western slopes in northern Vermont, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, the Adirondacks and New Hampshire's White Mountains

In most valley locations, expect one to three inches of snow, with only a dusting in valleys in southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and New York's Hudson Valley.

The National Weather Service is calling for 3 to 7 inches in those places I noted will get the heavier snow, but I still think there might be isolated amounts up to a foot around Jay Peak, Smuggler's Notch and Mount Mansfield.

This storm produced one to two inches of rain today across much of northern New England. Flood watches are still in effect for southern and eastern Vermont, but I think those watches will be dropped soon. There have been no reports of flooding.

Snowflakes will still be flying across northern and central Vermont mountains Thanksgiving morning but those will taper off. It still looks like it will be a frigid, windy day.  I guess it's a bad year to have a Thanksgiving feast outdoors.

There is the possibility of another coastal storm around Tuesday, but that's not a sure bet at all. Even if a storm does get going, it's too soon to tell if we'll get rain, snow, or some other combination out of that one. So stay tuned.

And Happy Thanksgiving.

Messy Storm Ongoing, Will Continue Well Into The Night

As of early Wednesday morning, we've entered the warmest part of the big, wet messy storm affecting Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Latest snowfall forecasts from the NWS/Burlington.
Click on the image to make it bigger so you can
read it  

Snow and mixed precipitation has mostly changed to rain, except for some pockets in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

Snow accumulations have been generally a trace to three inches of slush, with more than that falling in parts of the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of New York.

There are still some icy and slushy patches on the roads out there, so be careful driving this morning.

There might be somewhat of a lull in the precipitation in and around Vermont for part of this morning but generally, it'll keep raining a lot for much of the day. Flood watches in Vermont have been extended northward into Rutland and Windsor Counties and in the entire eastern third of the state.

There won't be any severe, Irene-style flooding, but low lying roads could get covered by water in some spots, brooks and streams will come up fast, a few basements might flood, that sort of thing. Just don't drive over any flooded roads and most of us should be fine in that regard.

As we get into the afternoon, colder air will start bleeding in from the west and north. In areas of northern New York, which are still under a winter storm warning for six to 12 inches of wet snow, the precipitation in many areas has briefly changed to a cold rain or a mix, but the snow will return later this morning or this afternoon.

That snow or mix will also start to creep into the Champlain Valley of Vermont this afternoon, too. Careful driving along Interstate 89 and other nearby roads north of Burlington during the mid and later afternoon. Toward evening, the changeover to snow will start to move more quickly across Vermont.

It still looks like temperatures will fall quickly tonight, so water will freeze and the snow falling is definitely still expected to cause some rough travel.

Snow showers now look like they will continue into Thanksgiving morning across northern Vermont especially, so even if you delay your trip to Grandmother's house, you'll still have to be careful on the roads.

Snow accumulation tonight and early Thursday still looks like it will be in the two to five inch range across the northern half of Vermont, but maybe quite a bit more than that along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

I'm still sticking to my forecast of up to a foot around Jay Peak, and maybe close to that at places like Smuggler's Notch and Mount Mansfield.

Bring your winter gear with you on Thanksgiving Day. It's going to be mighty cold and windy.

It's Starting To Snow In Vermont As Big Storm Arrives

As of 5:30 p.m. Tuesday, a little light snow was falling in Vermont, and some roadways were getting a bit slick, the opening salvo of that messy storm we've been advertising for a few days now.

A snowplow clear roads near Alburquerque, New
Mexico the other day. That area was hit by the
same storm that is now approaching the Northeast
Photo by Jim Thompson, Alburquerque Journal.

I looked at the late afternoon forecast updates and the forecasted scenario hasn't changed much from previous predictions.

That mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain still likes a good bet in most of Vermont overnight, though the warmer valleys of southern Vermont could see mostly rain.

Northern New York, away from the Champlain Valley, still looks to be under the gun with heavy, wet snow and some mixed precipitation.

Wednesday's weather will be all over the place. High temperatures across northern New York and northern New England will range from the low 30s to upper 50s.

Let me explain that one. It's a strong storm, and will move right up the Connecticut River Valley. The cold west side of the storm, in New York State, will continue to see the mostly wet snow.

These strong storms tend to gather a lot of warmth on their eastern flanks, so temperatures will rise to the low 50s in southeastern Vermont and well into the 50s to low 60s in New Hampshire and southeastern New England.

Vermont is in the middle and we're still looking at a cold, nasty, drenching rain for most of Wednesday.   But in the afternoon, precipitation will start to transition to ice and snow in the far northern Champlain Valley.

As the storm passes, temperatures will quickly drop and that snow and ice  up by Swanton and Alburgh, Vermont will race south and east across the rest of Vermont and into New Hampshire and Maine.

The western slopes of the Green Mountains still look like they'll take the brunt of the snow Wednesday night. I'm predicting more than six inches for those areas.

The northern Champlain Valley, from St. Albans north, could get several inches of snow, too. A bit more to the south, Burlington and the southern Champlain Valley are in for just a couple, maybe three inches of snow.

Unless of course the storm does something unexpected, which is possible.  Keep checking forecasts, things could change.

In places where it rains Wednesday, I'm still thinking it will come down hard, especially under and just east of the storm track. There's a flood watch in far southern Vermont for possible heavy rain.

And as much as 3.5 inches of rain is possible in parts of New Hampshire, which could lead to flooding.

The bottom line: Travel will be iffy tonight, and get better in all areas of New England except for maybe far northwestern Vermont during Wednesday. Northern New York is in for icy, snow covered roads during Wednesday, too.

The worst driving conditions will come after 5 p.m. Wednesday, when temperatures are probably going to fall rapidly and snow will pile up. The "flash freeze" plus the snow are guaranteed to make the roads really, really horrible Wednesday night.

So maybe try to time your holiday travel for the daylight hours on Wednesday.

Early Thanksgiving morning, the roads will still be largely ice covered, snowy and hazardous, but get better as the snow showers taper off and the sun comes out at times.

It'll be bitterly cold on Thanksgiving though. If you enjoyed the mid-winter chill and strong winds on Sunday, you'll like the Thanksgiving frigid weather too.

If you're flying Wednesday, prepare for a frustrating day. Most northern New England airports, like Burlington, Vermont and Manchester, N.H., tend not to close in storms. But a lot of flights throughout the eastern half of the nation will be delayed or cancelled because of the storm that is affecting a huge chunk of the U.S., not just us.

The weather will stay cold and wintry, but warm up a bit toward normal levels (upper 30s) by the beginning of next week.