Possible Big Pre-Thanksgiving Snow And Other Weather Excitement For Northeast

Pre-Thanksgiving travel on Wednesday could
end up looking like this in parts of the Northeast.  

Yesterday, I said nobody had any idea if a storm would dump heavy snow on parts of the the Northeast, as the forecasting models were all over the place.

It's now seeming more likely some areas will get a lot of snow to screw up holiday travel, but there's still some uncertainty in the details.

Most of the computer models have come around to the idea of bringing a nor'easter close enough to the coastline to dump snow on much of New England, New York State, and probably down into parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Maybe even into western Maryland and Virginia.

Still, those flighty computer models don't have an exact track for the storm yet, so we don't know what areas will get mostly rain, what areas get mostly snow, and exactly how much falls.

At this point, the snow bullseye looks to be the western half of Massachusetts, most of Connecticut, far southern Vermont, the Hudson Valley of New York and far northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.

Those areas have winter storm watches flying for Wednesday into Thursday. The best guess is there will be six to 10 inches of heavy wet snow in those regions. That's the kind that brings down trees and power lines, and feels like wet cement when you try to shovel it.

East of the winter storm watch areas, it might rain, it might snow, it's still uncertain. North and west of the winter storm watch area, it will probably snow, but we don't know how much yet.

This general forecast idea is not set in stone. It could change dramatically as the event gets closer and the computer forecasting models have a better idea of how things in the atmosphere are coming together. Stay tuned.

Obviously, the timing of the storm, Wednesday, when everybody's heading out for Thanksgiving visits, is lousy.

You could take a chance and keep your plans to travel Wednesday, as we could get lucky and things don't turn out that bad. But I'm pessimistic, and so are most other forecasters on this one. There will be icky weather around Wednesday.

If you can escape from work Tuesday and travel that day instead, go for it. There shouldn't be any weather problems Tuesday along the East Coast.

Before we get to the storms, today is turning out to be an interesting day, especially around Buffalo, N.Y., which has lately become Mother Nature's punching bag. They had all that many feet of snow just south of Buffalo, which is melting amid 60 degree temperatures.

Of course, that fast melt leads to flooding, and flooded basements and that sort of thing. Flood warnings are still flying out there.

Plus, there's a high wind warning in western New York today for gusts to 60 mph. The ground is wicked wet and soft from all that snowmelt. The soft ground makes it easier for the wind to topple trees.

The toppled trees cut power, which means the pumps trying to keep ahead of the flooding and the basement water conk out.

Plus, a particular surge of strong southwest winds later today and tonight might push Lake Erie water into the shorelines around Buffalo, flooding areas near the waterfront.

AND there's the chance, just the chance at this point, of more lake effect snow out that way this coming weekend.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, expect lots of wind today, but nothing too damaging. Temperatures will rise into the 60s in many areas, making it seem impossible that a snowstorm is brewing for Wednesday.

As experience shows though, just because it's warm today doesn't mean winter won't hit again soon.

Meanwhile, out west, the Los Angeles area, still under that huge drought, is bracing for possible wildfires between now and Thursday, as very low humidity and strong winds are expected to get going.

The weather is really turning into an obnoxious Thanksgiving dinner guest in many parts of the country.

More Stormy New England Weather Coming?

Today, a good week into spring, I awoke around dawn in my St. Albans, Vermont home. I looked out the window and saw heavy wet snow, sleet and gusty wind.

The lovely spring scene in my St. Albans,
Vermont driveway this morning. Snow and sleet
and wind and yuck.  

Isn't springtime in Vermont lovely?

Looking at the forecasts it looks like there's more challenging weather ahead.

The worst news is, there's a chance the northwestern third of Vermont and much of northern New York and maybe northern New Hampshire ane western Maine  might get another big snowstorm Saturday night.

Oh, joy!

First let's deal with today.

Since my early morning bout of snow and sleet, the precipitation has changed to a cold rain, and that trend is continuing across northern New England today. Most of the region will get rain, not snow today.

There might be a few snow showers tonight as colder air returns, but nothing extreme.

However. And this is a big however. It looks like a storm that I originally thought might give most of New England only a glancing blow Saturday night and Sunday might hammer us.

The storm coming Saturday night won't be anything like that super strong nor'easter that roared off the coast Wednesday, bringing gusts to 82 mph to Nantucket and more than 110 mph to Atlantic Canada.

In fact Saturday's storm is middling, as far as strength goes. It won't be all that windy. But the issue is this next storm will have a lot of moisture to work with.

Here's what's going on:  The storm that's going through today, the one with this morning's sleet and snow and afternoon rain, has a cold front that goes all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

A new storm will form down there along the cold front and then move northeastward. On it's way out of the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will grab a HUGE amount of moisture.

With that big supply of water, the storm will be able to drop a LOT of precipitation on the Northeastern United States.

Yeah, but what kind of precipitation?

In most of the the Northeast, the answer to that question is rain. Maybe lots of it. Southeastern New York, and southern and central New England might get enough rain to set off some flooding problems.

In southern Vermont and New Hampshire, the heavy precipitation will probably be rain or a mix, so there's a threat of flooding there, too. And the threat of several inches of wet snow if the storm is colder than forecast.

Once you get into northern New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire, whether there's rain or snow becomes a huge question mark.  Early predictions are that just enough cold air will bleed down from Quebec to give that region a heavy wet snowstorm. Maybe 6 to 12 inches or even a little more than that.

Since the snow would be wet and heavy broken tree limbs and power failures are a real possibility.

But wait! There's more!

It's unclear at this point what will win out in these potential snow areas.

Will enough cold air come down from Quebec to keep things snowy? Or will the wet storm be strong enough to throw quite a bit of warm air more north than we now think? If that happens, northern New York and Vermont and New Hampshire would get more rain and less snow.

There's a winter storm watch up in this area for the potential for heavy snow. Forecasters are reluctant to upgrade this to a warning because of the uncertainty about how much warm air is coming.

So, stay tuned to updated forecasts. A very white North Country might get even whiter to welcome April, or the first good rainy thaw of the season will come in. Time will tell.

Snow Update: Winter Storm Watches Up In New England

There was still a lot of uncertainty Tuesday evening about who will get the most snow from the brewing storm on the East Coast.

As of Tuesday evening, it was unclear if
it will look like this in Montpelier winter
street scene come Thursday night and Friday.
A snowstorm is definitely possible.  

Already, up to six inches has been reported in North Carolina, and an area from Atlanta, Georgia to Raleigh, North Carolina is bracing for a truly epic ice storm that you will surely hear about ad nauseum in the news.

It looks like that will be a bonafide disaster.

More to the north, ice won't be as much of a factor. The questions are whether coastal areas in the Northeast will get all snow, or will rain mix in? And how far west into the Appalachians will the heavy snow get?

Here where I am in Vermont, a winter storm watch is in effect for Thursday afternoon into Friday for the possibility of a general six to 10 inch snowstorms.

But the devil is in the details, and this forecast is very uncertain. The computer forecasting models are still struggling with where the stripe of heaviest snow will fall to the west of the storm's path.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says there could well be a sharp east to west gradient of snowfall amounts across Vermont, with the east getting dumped on and the Champlain Valley and New York State not so much.

It's really hard to pinpoint just where the heavy snow will go and where it won't. The tiniest variation in the storm track will determine who gets the big powder and who gets left out.

I don't think we'll really know until the last moment with this one. But for now, the best guess is a snowstorm in Vermont that would be similar to the one that came through last Wednesday. Which would actually be nice.

I'm sure the ski areas in northern New England are praying the computer models that give us the big powder dump are right. The big President's Week holiday is next week, and the ski areas want all the good publicity they can muster. A big snowstorm would help immensely.

Meanwhile, if you can, forget about traveling along the East Coast this week. The roads, the airlines and everything else will be a mess. Get the hot chocolate and sit inside and watch and see what happens.