Monday, February 12, 2018

Giant Hail In Argentina Not A World Record, But Scary Big Nonetheless

This hailstone, more than seven inches in diameter,
landed in Argentina last week. It's probably the record largest
for the Southern Hemisphere, but not quite a world record. 
On February 8,  a severe thunderstorm in Argentina dropped some amazingly large hailstones.

The stones, it turned out, fell a little short of the world record for largest hail ever observed.

On July 23, 2010, a hailstone eight inches in diameter, 18.625 inches in circumference and 1.9375 pounds landed on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. That's still the world record holder.

The hail stone in Argentina had a 7.1 inch diameter, which is very likely a record for the Southern Hemisphere.

According to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, the hailstorm started as no big deal in Cordoba, Argentina. The hailstones were tiny. But they then got bigger. Golf balls. Tennis balls. Then, incredibly, bigger.

 A woman named Victoria Druetta grabbed one of the biggest hailstones and threw it in her freezer. It's possible the hailstone that was retrieved from her freezer was once bigger. Druetta said it melted just a bit before she put it in the freezer.

Updrafts in the thunderstorm that produced the hail had to be 120 mph or so to keep the hail suspended in the air long enough to get that big, says the Capital Weather Gang. .

The hailstone, like many biggies, has a lot of weird protrusions and bumps on it. Also, when hailstones get this big, the use up so much water to form that the stones come down few and far between at street level.

In this Argentinian hailstorm, the big stones would fall more than 20 feet apart from each other, often breaking into shards as they hit pavement.

The Argentina stone could claim second place for width, as well as be the biggest on record south of the equator. The World Meteorological Organization has not commented yet on this finding.

Here are some videos of the hail in Argentina:



Turn up the sound on this video, if you're not at work. The giant hailstones are relatively few and far between, but the sound of the impact is amazing. These hailstones really slam down:


Sunday, February 11, 2018

Day 2 Of Messy Vermont Weather Weekend, But It's Much Worse Elsewhere In The East

Tonks and Jackson seemed a bit stunned by the growing
height of the snowbanks this morning at our house in
St. Albans, Vermont. We got another four inches yesterday
and last night near the Canaian border 
Just got back in from shoveling snow (again!) outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont. And I have to go back out later to shovel the deck where the heavy snow slid off the roof yesterday during a very brief period of above freezing temperatures.

Saturday, most of the accumulating snow was near the Canadian border. If I were channeling Tina Fey channeling Sarah Palin, I'd tell you I can see Canada from my house. I can!

As far as I can tell, my house in St. Albans was tied with Sutton, Vermont for the most snow reported yesterday and last night - 4.1 inches.

The snow tapered of rapidly as you headed south. Burlington clocked in with just 1.5 inches of new powder.

By the way, some of the mid and high elevations of northern Vermont are starting to get deep in the fluff. A few places up north have a respectable 25 to 33 inches of snow on the ground as of Sunday morning. 

There's more stuff coming today, too. It just won't be heavy at all. But it will be a mix of yuck.

In all but the southern third of Vermont, there was almost no precipitation falling. It is just murky this morning with lots of clouds, fog and haze. We're between weather systems, one to the northwest, and one to the south.

The one to the south is very, very, very wet, but the good news for us here in Vermont is that most of that wetness will stay to our south. Though far southern Vermont is getting into some of it, but not the worst.

Flood watches and warnings are up for a broad area from the Florida panhandle all the way up the Appalachians to southeastern New England. In this band, it's warm enough for rain and there's a lot of it. Most places in the flood alert zone will get one to three inches of rain out of this, locally up to five inches.

As I said, Vermont is between the two weather systems. The one to our northwest has a cold front approaching us. This will help draw up a little of that moisture down to the south. Not much of it, but some.

That's already happened in far southern Vermont, where freezing rain and snow has been reported. As of 10 a.m, it had already changed to plain rain in southeastern Vermont. As the moisture works north, you'll see scattered periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain or rain just about anywhere as the day wears on.

Here's why forecasters are thinking light mixed precipitation today:

A wavering weather front attached to all this sank south last night, explaining why it got below freezing all the way to southern Vermont, and the fact there was a modest snowfall to the north.

Along with the modest moisture being forced north today, the warm air will ride along. As it does so, different layers of the atmosphere will warm at different paces. That sets the stage for all the mix. The freezing rain and sleet will come because higher levels of the atmosphere will warm faster than the surface.

It could eventually get above freezing later today for a short while as far north as the Canadian border. I think the only place not much at risk for any kind of brief thaw is New York's St. Lawrence Valley and maybe the high elevations of Vermont, and perhaps the Northeast Kingdom.

That cold front attached to the storm to our northwest will come through tonight, shutting off the precipitation and cooling us off.

During the upcoming week, by the way, expect some pretty easy winter weather in Vermont. The temperature will of course go up and down. Seasonably chilly Monday into Tuesday, then going into afternoon thaws Wednesday and Thursday, followed by more seasonable chill at the end of the week.

And there will be no big storms. Just little stuff from time to time.



Saturday, February 10, 2018

Kind Of A Messy Weekend In Vermont And Lots Of Other Places

Side streets in Burlington, Vermont were a bit greasy this
Saturday morning from a light overnight snow. Expect
continued spells of icy roads this weekend due to snow
and mixed precipitation
Here in Vermont, this is going to be one of those weekends in which the weather won't seem to be able to make up its mind. 

There's no big storm to report on, but enough inclement weather to kind of drive you nuts at times.

I don't really feel like breaking down when and where what type of precipitation will fall every hour on the hour through the weekend, but broad brush: Some accumulating snow in the north, a risk of light sleet and freezing rain anywhere in the state and maybe some minor thawing to the south.

Winter weather advisories are up for northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, somewhat higher elevations in central Vermont all the way through eastern Rutland County, and in northern New York.

In these regions, look for anywhere between two and six inches of new snow, most of which will come down this afternoon through tonight.

From central Vermont south, most of the precipitation will be a mix today and tonight. Expect just about anything.

In most of the Champlain Valley, except the far reaches near the Quebec border, southwest winds aloft mean the Adirondacks will block some of the snow from coming in, so forecasters are saying one to three inches of new snow in those places.

Sunday and Sunday night are looking vaguely ugly, with a good chance of snow, sleet, freezing rain or even rain to the south during that period. None of that precipitation will come down heavily, which is great, but it will be enough to give us pause if we have to drive anywhere.

All this weather is being caused by a nearly stalled front running northeast to southwest just west of the Appalachian chain.

On the bright side, the front will sink south Sunday night, so by Monday the sun will be out, at least partially. It will still be warmish, with afternoon temperatures getting up to 30 or even a little better than that.

For this weekend, the real heavy moisture with the stalled front giving our inclement weather is staying to the south.

Flood watches for heavy rain are in effect from Alabama to New Jersey because of all the heavy rain riding northeastward along the front. In the middle of the country, an area centered around Missouri, mixed precipitation will be a problem. There might even be a smattering of severe thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

In the Northern Plains, wind chill advisories and warnings are widespread. As noted, that frigid air isn't headed in our direction.

From southern California eastward through western Texas, there are fire weather alerts. A drought is deepening across this region. Every time it gets windy and the humidity falls this winter, the fire risk grows. It's really strange that southern California should be worried about fires now. It should be quite wet there in February.

Friday, February 9, 2018

Snowfall Reports Are Usually Best Gussses, But They're Still Valuable (And Entertaining)

Snow depth in my yard in St. Albans, Vermont was 10
inches Thursday afternoon. We had about 13 inches of snow
in the past week, but it compacted
When I can, I report to the National Weather Service how much snow fell around my house in St. Albans, Vermont during winter storms, like the one we had Wednesday. A lot of Vermonters do that.   

The NWS office in South Burlington, Vermont, and all other NWS offices for that matter, definitely welcome these reports, as it gives them an idea as to who's getting hit the hardest. It also helps them determine how accurate their pre-storm forecasts were.

That, in turn, helps the meteorologists understand local patterns, and how specific winds, temperatures and other factors influence snowfall. It makes for better forecasts the next time a storm rolls around.

However - and this is my opinion - snowfall totals are probably the least accurate meteorological measurements you can come by, even if these measurements are still useful.

Sure, anything can muck up any kind of measurement. Even things like temperature readings, which you'd think might be pretty straightforward. You look at the thermometer and it indicates it's 30 degrees outdoors. That should be the final word. It's either 30 degrees or it isn't.

Well, maybe it really isn't. If you have the thermometer in the wrong place - maybe it's less or more than the standard five feet off the ground, or it's influenced by sun shining on it, or it's surrounding by asphalt to create an urban heat island effect and suddenly that 30 degrees you saw on the thermometer is pretty unreliable.

As you can imagine, snow is even harder to measure accurately. It blows around. It compacts. It melts and refreezes. Often all within a matter of seconds or minutes.

Which means you shouldn't take snowfall measurements -especially record breaking mega-amounts  - as gospel. These measurements give you a pretty good idea of the magnitude of the storm, but it's not exactly perfect precision.

Pathway I shoveled to my shed in St. Albans, Vermont.
Along that path 13 inches of snow this week compacted
to 10 inches.
Really big storms - bigger than the one we had Wednesday - are even harder to measure. Compaction, blowing and drifting are all magnified.  Also, storms that have temperatures near the freezing point can be tricky. 

You'll see this over the weekend. We're supposed to get light snow, totally one to as much as five inches, depending upon where you are.

But temperatures in many locations, particularly valleys south of Route 2, will mix with or change to rain or mixed precipitation at times. That'll make meauring what snow does fall a bit challenging

There are standards for how to measure snow.  National Weather Service has a particular way of doing it, and they encourage us to try an emulate the method as best we can.

The NWS lets snow accumulated on a light colored board for six hours. They measure, wipe the board clean, then lets it snow for another six hours, measures again, etc. etc.

Often, this means the depth of snow on the ground is actually less than the official measurement conveyed, because snow typically compacts over the course of a day or more.

One extreme example of this hit in Erie, Pennsylvania around Christmastime. They had an epic lake effect snowstorm there. Over the course of 72 hours ending the evening of December 27 the National Weather Service office in Erie measured an amazing 65.1 inches of new snow.

Even so, the most that was ever on the ground during that period in Erie was only 28 inches. That does seem, odd, doesn't it?

The snow that fell in Erie around Christmas was especially light and fluffy. Such snow really compacts a lot if you just leave it there.

This is an extreme example of how snowstorms can come across in the media as being overstated. We were all blasted by the news after Christmas that Erie had 65 inches of snow. However the actual effects of the storm, while serious, were not an incredible, deadly disaster.

On Wednesday, I measured the new snow we got in St. Albans somewhat close to, but not exactly the way the National Weather Service suggests. It was a good time to conduct this experiment. The snow was light and fluffy. Winds were rather light, so things didn't get too screwed up through blowing and drifting

I came up with a storm total of 8.6 inches. But when I measured the depth of snow on the ground in general about 18 hours after the storm ended, it had compacted a little. There was three inches of snow on the ground before the storm, so there should have been roughly 11.5 inches of snow on the ground.

But I came up with an average of ten inches total on the ground. About an inch and a half "disappeared."

Most people don't measure snow exactly the way the National Weather Service suggest, because they can't devote the time to do so every six hours. Average citizens have to go to work, school, etc. and can't babysit their snow measuring spots like that.

My snowfall measurements that I report to the National Weather Service are likely pretty close to reality, but also probably not perfectly spot on.   And probably none of the snowfall reports in the long list you see after every storm is 100 percent accurate, but they're pretty close.

But the data is still very useful, as I've said earlier in this post.  I also don't want to discourage all those citizen scientists out there who report their snow totals to the National Weather Service and other meteorologists.

Citizen scientists are extremely  helpful in so many ways for meteorologists, and in many other fields. Some of those people who bundle up at 5 a.m. in the morning might become inspired to do even more. Let 'em! We need them.

My only point, every time you look at that list of how much snow everybody got, it'll give you a general idea of the size and scope of the snowstorm.

But if you're bragging that you got more snow than your neighbor because you measured 12.4 inches of new snow and your friend only measured 12.2 inches, the opposite may be true. It all depends upon how you measured.  .

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Yesterday's Vermont Snowstorm Dumped A Pretty Uniform Blanket Of Snow

A pretty Thursday morning in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard today after yesterday's 8.6 inch dump of powder
Every time we get a snowstorm in Vermont, some towns get buried, some mostly miss out on the excitement.  

This time, while snowfall did vary from place to place across the Green Mountain State, snow totals were pretty uniform for a February storm. 

While there were exceptions, like in parts of Chittenden County, pretty much everybody got seven to 12 inches of powder out of this dump. Areas around Burlington only got about five or six inches.

The highest total reported so far, outside the mountain peaks was 14 inches in Walden. There were several reports of a foot of snow, and those reports were scattered throughout the state.

Among the one footer towns were Averill, way up in the Northeast Kingdom, Berlin in central Vermont, Middletown Springs down in Rutland County, Vergennes in the southern Champlain Valley and Rochester to the east.

As previously noted, it's a nice, powdery snow and fairly easy to shovel.

The snow we got in Vermont yesterday was fluffy and powdery
making it pretty easy to get most of my St. Albans
driveway shoveled today. 
If you want a bit of icing on the cake, so to speak, it still looks like we'll get another one to three inches of fluff Friday night. There might be even a bit more than that in some of the Green Mountains, and in northern New York.

The Friday night mini-snowfall is coming from a rather weak, quick moving storm that today is causing some snow, wind, and winter storm warnings in the middle of the country.

By the way, yesterday's powdery snow, atop more crusty stuff, has prompted an avalanche watch in northern New Hampshire's White Mountains. There could be some dangerous snow slides up in that neck of the woods. So watch out for that, back country skiers!

Otherwise, enjoy the powder today. The sun is coming out and it will be a brisk but beautiful and brilliant Thursday afternoon. Bring those sunglasses, though. It's awfully bright out there.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Wednesday Evening Update: Well-Behaved Vermont Snowstorm To Wind Down

Road conditions certainly weren't great in front of my
St. Albans, Vermont house during tocday's snowstorm,
but the state highway plow guys and gals did seem
to be pretty much keeping up with it. 
I have to say in many respects, this has so far been a remarkably well-behaved snowstorm in Vermont. Much better behaved than most.

Snowfall is fairly substantial, but manageable. It has come down hard at times in some locations, but again, nothing too extreme.

Temperatures are reasonable, winds are light. The texture of the snow is light and fluffy. Perfect for winter sports and great if you're not trying to break your back or have a heart attack while shoveling snow.

Also in the well-behaved category is that in general, the forecasts for this storm look like they're going to be pretty close to accurate.  There are a couple slight exceptions: Snow totals in northwestern Vermont, in Franklin County in particular, seem like they'll come in a little heavier than forecast.

There was a report of 7.3 inches of new snow in Swanton as of 3:30 p.m. By 5 p.m. at my house in St. Albans, we were up to 7 inches. So we'll end up in the upper end at least of the 6 to 10 inches that were forecast.

In contrast, parts of Chittenden County, around Burlington and it some spots along the western slopes of the Greens, snow accumulation is on the light side so far. They might come in on the low end of the 6-10 inches that had been forecast there.

As expected (good behavior again!) the storm is rocketing by. The snow will taper off by midnight. If you haven't done your evening commute yet, be prepared for slow going. The highway plow crews have been doing a good job, but of course it's impossible to make the roads free of snow and ice while the storm is still going on.

One area in which this storm has not behaved well is in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England. A plane bound for all places Jamaica skidded on a taxiway at the Baltimore-Washington International Airport this morning. Nobody got hurt, but the plane was evacuated, and some tropical vacations were cruelly delayed.

Power failures hit southeastern Ohio because of freezing rain. In New York City, the busy Mario Cuomo bridge. (formerly the Tappan Zee) was shut down for a time because it iced over and there were lots of crashes on it.

Back here in Vermont, we're still expecting fairly active, but definitely not scary weather over the next several days.

Given the dire warnings of a bitterly cold February that I saw on social media a week or two back, I'm smiling now at temperatures forecasts for the next week here in the Green Mountain State.

Tomorrow will be the coldest day of the period -- near 20 during the day, which isn't bad at all for this time of year.

After that, Friday through next Tuesday, it's looking like daytime temperatures will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s in the valleys. It'll be a little cooler than that up in the ski resorts, so they'll hang on to their snow just fine.

There's still chances of light snow Friday, Sunday and Tuesday, though those light storms could mix with or even change to rain at times in the lower elevations.

This warm-ish forecast doesn't mean winter is over. There's still plenty of time for subzero cold and big and/or messy winter storms. But it is February. We are starting to get to the point where most of te worst of winter is behind us. You'll notice the sun getting stronger. The afternoon air on some days at least will feel noticeably warmer. Winter will soon start to lose some of its bite.

The Annual Big Highway Snow Pileup Videos Are Up. Why Are People Such Idiots On Icy Roads?

It's snowing today here in Vermont, and we will see our usual batch of spinoffs, bumps, crashes and mishaps on the state's roads as some people are surely driving too fast for the conditions.
Deadly crash along snowy Interstate 35 in Iowa Monday,
caused in large part by stupid people. 

Vermont, like many northern states, are also prone to those spectacular, deadly big highway pileups in snowstorms, the kind that cause numerous deaths and injuries and involved dozens of cars.

Knock on wood, we haven't had anything like that lately. The last major one I can think of was a 12-car pileup on Interstate 89 in Bolton back in February, 2014.

These epic, major snowy pileups have been in the news this week for sure, with a bad one in Michigan and an even worse one near Ames, Iowa that on Monday along Interstate 35 killed one person,  injured five and involved up to 70 vehicles, says the Des Moines Register. That day, eight people died on icy road related crashes in Iowa and it wasn't even that huge a storm.

The Iowa Department of Transportation released a video of that Ames, Iowa pileup, which you can see at the bottom of this post. The video is striking in that it shows the bad behaviors that lead to this kind of tragedy. A lot of the ingredients that went into the Ames crash pop up in a lot of other icy highway pile ups.

You'll notice in the video that much of the snow has blown off the right lane of Interstate 35. But many motorists don't seem to realize the obvious. The compaction from tires has left a very thin skim of black ice on that lane. The pavement looks bare, but it's not.

Another view of that winter weather pileup on Interstate 35
near Ames, Iowa Monday. Photo form KCCI via AP
Also very noticeable in the video is the fact that it takes only a few idiots to cause a huge catastrophe.  Once the crashes start, a few speedy drivers, moving much too fast for the conditions, plow into stopped vehicles.

Notice that the majority of the motorists are driving relatively slow, and come to a safe stop, only to be slammed from the rear by these crazy, fast driving idiots.

Here's another thing that scares the bejeezus out of me when I'm traveling to and from work along Interstate 89 in snowstorms:

Tractor trailer trucks zoom past at high speeds, and you know they won't be able to stop if there's trouble ahead. Plus, they kick up an enormous amount of powdery snow, blinding other motorists like me.

In the Ames Iowa DOT video, you see several tractor trailer trucks moving at high speeds and plowing into other cars, causing most of the havoc. You'll also see some more responsible tractor trailer drivers moving at slow speeds, avoiding the accident only to again, by slammed from behind.

These lead-footed tractor trailer drivers really bother me the most, since the cause such carnage.

You see, many trucking companies are responsible, and encourage their employees to drive at safe speeds for the conditions, even if that makes deliveries a little later than anticipated.

Other trucking companies, though, are horrible. They pressure their drivers with unreasonable deadlines, encourage them to drive too fast, with not enough sleep or be fired.  I don't like over-regulation, but laws are too lax, and not enforced enough on trucking companies who put this kind o pressure on their drivers.

Apparently, among the less ethical trucking companies out there, killing a few people on a snowy highway is just a cost of doing business and nothing else. Scumbags.

Also in the video, you see some motorists who were not hit purposefuly drive into the ditch on the right side of the highway to avoid oncoming cars behind them. I'd probably do that.  Better to pay for a tow to get out of the ditch later than get hurt or killed by an oncoming truck.

Finally, you'll also notice a lot of people abandon their vehicles and run as far away from the crash zone as possible. Also smart. I'd rather freeze my tush off standing on in a snowstorm than get killed in the crashes.  Experts say it depends on the situation as to what you should do. Your seat belt can help you if there are subsequent crashes, and you could be run over if you're trying to flee.

However, if it's safe to do so, I'd still make a run for it. Especially if vehicles are on fire around you, or you risk getting trapped in your car by being sandwiched in by other vehicles.

Here's the dramatic Ames, Iowa video: