Government Shutdown Is Stupid and Bad For Weather Forecasting And Research

The government shutdown is screwing around with the National
Weather Service, including areas of public outreach, science,
research and other critical areas. yes, the whole situation is stupid.

The government shutdown, as you know, is a real pain in the buttinski. It's affecting a lot of people, including the National Weather Service, and weather geeks like you and me.

We're still getting forecasts, alerts, warnings etc., but other programs are curtailed. Outreach, communications with the public, research, meetings, and other activities are on hold.

The boilerplate message during the shutdown from the National Weather Service is this:

"Due to the government shutdown, all public National Weather Service activities have been canceled or postponed until further notice. The National Weather Service will continue to provide critical forecast, watch and warning information to protect life and property throughout the shutdown."

I imagine moral is poor among NWS employees, but they're are dedicated to protecting the public. I've certainly seen no erosion in the accuracy or timeliness in the many various winter storm, flood, tornado, high wind and other warnings that have been issued since the shutdown began.

Still, starting salaries for the NWS are at $28,000, and highest salaries are not much more than $100,000 for some people in top managerial positions. These guys and gals are NOT rich, so I'm sure they're all worried about how they will pay their bills.

One very regrettable effect of the shutdown is that National Weather Service meteorologists were barred from attending the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting this past weekend in Phoenix. This meant hundreds of scientists, including those from the National Weather Service, had to skip it. 

The Washington Post had this to say about the situation:

"'This meeting is where scientists hatch new ideas for lifesaving methods and warnings,'  said Dan Sobien, the president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. 'Any delay in that research could someday cost someone their life, and that person could be you or me,' Sobie said. 

Not having NWS meteorologists there to collaborate 'will likely cost many more lives than the absence of any border wall, anywhere.'"

Sobien might be overblowing the situation, but he has a point: Scientists getting together a big meeting like the AMS annual do spark creativity and research, so the government shutdown probably helped stymie some needed weather and climate change research.

Not that the Trump administration  cares or takes seriously any scientific facts and research. Especially if it conflicts with their agenda. But that's another story. 

Another effect of the shutdown, at least for the AMS conference, is it has thrown scientific sessions and town hall meetings into chaos. (Bonus for Trump: He loves chaos, too!)  Because NWS personnel were in charge of convening many of these sessions, the were either canceled or they had to scramble to find substitutes

Weather and climate research is on hold, too, due to the shutdown:

Says Time magazine:

"Scientists and engineers working on projects unrelated to the day-to-day safeguarding of American lives and property have been sent home. Efforts within NOAA and NWS to improve weather modeling have been paused, as have continuing training programs for weather staff, both of which are essential to improving long-term weather prediction. For some forecasters, the standoff over the border wall is immaterial compared to the real progress that is being lost due to the shutdown."

National Weather Service meteorologists are working without pay.  The National Weather Service is, or was, one of the best places to work if you are a meteorologist. But these stupid shutdowns make working for the NWS less appealing, so the NWS risks losing the best and the brightest. 

Working for private meteorology companies is fine, but I worry about how research at these companies might be bent in the name of enhancing corporate profits. 

Here in Vermont, some data and services are  not available. Today, there was to have been a webinar out of the National Weather Service in South Burlington on understanding NWS radar images online. But that was canceled because of the shutdown. Sucks. The webinar would have been useful to me, and I'm sure quite a few other people.

The USGS monitors the Lake Champlain water level, and most of that data hasn't been available since the government shut down.. Their website frustratingly says:

"Due to a lapse in appropriations, the majority of USGS websites may not be up to date and may not reflect current conditions. Websites displaying real-time data, such as Earthquake and Water and information needed for public health and safety will be updated with limited support. Additionally, USGS will not be able to respond to inquiries until appropriations are enacted."
 
Worse, the government shutdown is making it hard or impossible to get good readings on the amount of water in the snow up in Vermont's mid and high elevations. I don't really know if someone is monitoring snow water equivalent, but the general public can't access it.

That data is important, especially as we move more and more into winter. You need to know how much water is in that snow to determine the potential for flooding from runoff during thaws.  This data helped the National Weather Service in South Burlington forecast flooding in Vermont just before Christmas, and just before the government shutdown. 

So yeah, the shutdown is lousy for weather geeks, too. I guess politics, um, trumps science, public knowledge, access to data, and government responsibility.

Government Shutdown Could Affect Weather Forecasts

This is the message that greeted us on the
National Weather Service web site during
the 2013 government shutdown. It might be
about to happen again.  

The morons in Washington DC who want to shut down the federal government to score their elusive political points instead of serving their nation might even affect your weather forecasts.

By the way, if Congress Creatures and the grandstanders among them don't get their act together by September 30, there might be another government shutdown even stupider than the one in 2013.

Thanks Ted Cruz! 

Marshall Shepherd, writing in Forbes, says National Weather Service forecasts will go on, just as they did in the last government shutdown, but there are risks that things won't go smoothly.

For starters, we wouldn't have the great access to NWS products that we're used to, and there are a lot of 'em.

The last time we went through this ridiculousness, National Weather Service web sites were down, except for the parts that conveyed critical weather forecasts and updates during dangerous weather.

That was frustrating to say the least, because it's the go to place for all things weather.

True, there are private weather forecasters and other outlets, like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather, that do a fine job.

But Shepherd points out in Forbes that even these outfits depend on NWS and federal resources.

He writes: "Satellites monitoring the tropics for looming threat of hurricanes are federal assets. The dual-polarimetric, Doppler radar network watching for tornadic storms or flood-inducing rains are federal assets. The major weather models that provide day-to-day and long range forecasts are federal assetts.

I have often said, 'We wouldn't have french fries with the potato farmer, yet most people just see the french fries.'"

Many of the federal assets Shepherd describes would still run during a shutdown, but if something went wrong with them, maybe nobody would be around to  maintain them.

And what of morale among all federal employees, including NWS meteorologists?  Many would keep working while being promised to be paid eventually during a shutdown, but geez, talk about an employer - the federal government and Congress - disrespecting their employees!

I wonder how many talented NWS meteorologists would flee, leaving a weaker agency?

Shepherd takes an even handed, sober approach in his Forbes article, which is better than I can do.

I can't take that approach. So hey Congress Creatures: Stop your stupid politicizing and being big dicks and get to work!

Do your job!

Thanks for letting me rant.

NWS Rapid City: Not Paid But Dedicated, Unlike Certain Congress People

During that big blizzard in South Dakota's Black Hills last week, National Weather Service meteorologists worked way, way overtime despite the government shutdown and the fact they are not getting paid.

The National Weather Service office in
Rapid City, South Dakota during last week's blizzard. 

At least somebody is dedicated to the job. More than I can say for certain members of Congress

Rapid City was a mess, given the four feet of snow that fell in some areas near the city, and those ten foot high drifts, the fallen trees, the lack of electrical power. Travel was impossible.

One meteorologist hiked through all that snow to and from work to put out the crucial weather warnings associated with the storm. 

This message went out from the Rapid City National Weather Service office to a central headquarter in Missouri on Sunday:

"Access to the office is still blocked. Two employees were able to hike in arround some obstructions, but it is not possible to drive out of the parking lot due to snow drifts and downed trees in the neighborhood. The (one that hiked in) is attempting to take two stranded employees home this morning. One forecaster hiked in for his mid shift last night, and I sent him home so he can come back tonight. Of the three who are on duty at this time, two have been here since 7 a.m. Friday and I have been here since 3 p.m. Friday. 

All this and these guys weren't getting paid because of the government shutdown.

While the National Weather Service has kept functioing during the shutdown, there are quite a few shortcomings cropping up in forecasting and meteorological research, as it turns out.

So let's hope sane people get the upper hand soon. 

S

So let's hope sane people

"Please Pay Us" Alaska NWS Pleads In Coded Message

Credit the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post for alerting me to this gem

"Please Pay Us" say meteorologists.  

As I reported this morning, National Weather Service meteorologists, who are federal employees, are working so that people can get severe weather warnings and such, but they're not being paid while Congress dithers with the government shutdown.

Not surprisingly, these meteorologists are not happy about going unpaid.

So, meteorologists at the NWS office in Anchorage, Alaska found an ingenious way to protest the lack of pay.  Every forecast cycle, the NWS puts out something called a forecast discussion, that only hard core weather geeks like me read. The discussion basically lays out the scientific reasoning behind the forecasts they've issued.

Click on the image to make it bigger and more readable to see how the meteorologists managed to get their message across.   Bonus points if you understand what the meteorologists are saying in the discussion.

Stormy Weather, Stormy Politics: Will Government Shutdown Affect Storm Warnings?

The nation is facing some incredibly active weather today and on into the weekend. Tropical Storm Karen is threatening the Gulf Coast. 

Tornados like this one are possible
in parts of the Midwest today. Despite the
government shutdown, the National Weather
Service will issue warnings and watches,
as they usually do.  

Blizzard warnings (this time of year!) are up for parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and Wyoming as a massive snowstorm moves through.

Strong tornados are possible today in parts of the Midwest, especially around Iowa. And strong Santa Ana winds in California combined with a drought makes the risk of fires extreme today.

Meanwhile, the government has been shut down by a stubborn Congress. Since the National Weather Service is staffed by federal employees, does this mean people in areas of the nation threatened by all of today's dangerous weather might not get warnings and alerts in a timely manner?

The answer, fortunately, is the warnings will go out as always. However, it's not a perfect situation, that's for sure.

The web site NOAA.gov is off line, thanks to the government shut down. But the National Weather Service web site, www.weather.gov, is up and running as usual.

I've noticed on weather.gov that forecasts are updated on about the same schedule as usual,  and weather warnings and advisories across the nation seem like they're being issued in as timely a manner as they would when Congress is not up to shenanigans. So at least National Weather Service meteorologists seem dedicated.

Meteorologists are regarded as essential employees, so they're working. But without pay, which has to stink.

And since some staffers are furloughed, and agencies the National Weather Service coordinates with during weather emergencies have skeleton staffs, I have to wonder if responses to severe storms, tornados, the blizzard and Tropical Storm Karen will be up to snuff.

Also, since there are so many weather extremes going on in the nation at once today, will the National Weather Service ultimately be spread to thin, given the reduced staffing? We'll have to wait and see on that.

Here in Vermont, there's no extreme weather in the forecast. Tropical Storm Karen looks as if it will barely affect us Monday with some rain and maybe a breeze, but not any damaging winds or flooding or anything like that.  The storm causing the blizzard and tornados out west will also affect Vermont Sunday and Monday but by the time it gets here all we'll get is rain, clouds and mild temperatures.

Still, I'd feel more comfortable if the government shutdown ends, the National Weather Service goes to full staff and the workers get paid, like they should, morally and legally.