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| Fallen leaves in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. The few remaining leaves on the trees will probably come down Thursday and Friday amid an expected rain and wind storm. |
Such a storm is coming for Halloween and on Friday, so get those winter jackets out! It won't be extremely cold after this storm goes by, but you'll notice the difference.
First, we have to get through this uncoming storm, which looks to be a bit of a doozy.
Today will be OK, with relatively mild temperatures and some sun in the western half of Vermont. Eastern Vermont will be cloudier.
Same is true Wednesday with only a slight chance of showers.
Thursday, Halloween, is when things start to get interesting. And it's bad news for trick or treaters, unless they're planning on dressing up as umbrellas or rain gauges or something.
It'll get showery and breezy Thursday as the storm's warm front arrives. Things will intensify Thursday night as a lot of moisture is likely to get sucked up from the Gulf of Mexico into this storm.
It's been wet lately, and it looks like we're in for another one or two inches of rain with this storm Thursday night and Friday. Some places will get even more than that. I think at least some minor flooding is a good possibility with this storm.
Overnight Thursday and into Friday morning will be perfectly spooky for the season with strong winds and occasionally heavy rains. That makes for a noisy storm, and you'll hear eerie things outside, like the occasional small branch breaking, shutters rattling, things blowing around in the yard, loose shed doors banging shut, that sort of thing.
We'll also have to look out for possibly damaging winds in some areas starting before dawn Friday and lasting much of the day. Details are iffy, but there could be some areas of downed branches, trees and power lines across most of Vermont and surrounding areas Friday. I imagine a lot of gusts will be in the 50 mph range.
Saturated soft soil also makes it easier for trees to uproot in strong winds.
Behind the storm, we get into a sustained period of chilly weather. Definitely not like anything we've seen since April. But it will be very typical of November.
Daytime highs starting Saturday and lasting well into next week will only reach the 40s, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. It'll be unsettled, with scattered rain and snow showers around. Some of those snow showers will extend to valley floors, especially at night. This chilly pattern might easily extend into the middle of November at least.
Deal with it, because at least the weather here is not as extreme as it is out west.
FRIGID ROCKIES, FIERY CALIFORNIA
The weather pattern that is bringing us the storm later this week and the colder air for the weekend is bringing bigger extremes to the west.
This pattern, which I told you about yesterday, features a big northward bulge in the jet stream in Alaska, and a sharp dip southward into the Rockies. Compact storms roll like bowling balls almost due southward into this dip, which have been bringing repeated snowfalls to the West. Great Falls, Montana has already had more than 31 inches of snow this "winter" for instance.
Each of these "bowling balls" also bring batches of Arctic air. A high mountain valley, at an elevation of around 8,000 feet, might have set a national record for the coldest October reading on record in the Lower 48. Peter Sinks, Utah got down to 34.7 below zero! Brrrr!
Denver, Colorado, hasn't been any warmer than the low 20s since early Sunday morning and won't get warmer than that until Thursday. A winter storm warning is up for the Denver area today, with six to 12 inches of snow in the forecast. Record lows of near zero area expected later this week.
That's way too early for me.
These "bowling ball" disturbances I've describing also increase the pressure gradient between the California coast and the Sierra Nevada mountains and other hills. That's what's been producing the Santa Ana winds in southern California, which has been causing those destructive fires.
It's only going to get worse over the next couple of days. Santa Ana winds of 30 to 55 mph with gusts to 80 mph on the higher hills are producing another round of extreme fire risk later today through Friday. This is near record territory for the strength of the Santa Anas.
New and existing fires will spread like crazy. Embers from these fires will fly long distances to start new fires. Remember, these exceedingly dry winds have been going on and off for a month now, so it's made everything in southern California super arid. This is NOT going to be a good couple of days there.
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