Enjoy Vermont's Last Nice Summer Day For Quite Awhile

Today is everything you want in Vermont summer day.

Any place depicted in orange is expected to have above
normal temperaturs at mid-month, according to this 8-14
day forecast. The darker the orange, the greater the chances
of warmer than normal temperatures. Only a tiny part of
the Pacific Northwest (in blue) will be coolish

There's plenty of sunshine.  It's going to be warm, with most of us getting to 80 degrees or a little above.  It won't be humid.

It's hot enough for a day at the beach and comfortable enough for a hike in the Green Mountains. You won't get rained on. Apply some sun screen and maybe some bug spray and away you go.

This will be your last chance to enjoy the Vermont outdoors for awhile.  We have another long period of hot, humid, oppressive weather that will last right into the weekend at least.

I know that a few of you like hot, humid weather, so sorry for insulting you by complaining about it.  But most of us, frankly, are not enthused about this.

It'll start tomorrow. Last night was a refreshing night for sleeping, and tonight won't be bad either.  The humidity blasts in tomorrow, and by late afternoon you'll feel it.

That warm front bringing us this nasty spell could cause a few scattered showers and tbunderstorms, but most of us won't get wet.  Another little disturbance could trigger some showers and storms here and there on Wednesday, but, again, not all of us will get wet.

The partial cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures "cooler" Tuesday and Wednesday with highs "only" in the mid and upper 80s most places around here.

The heat seems, at least at this point, as if it will peak Thursday and Friday with higha in aome of the valleys reaching the mid-90s. Ugh!  The humidity will be higher than during that big heat wave we had in late June, so it will feel even worse than it did back a couple weeks ago.

Overnight lows will stay in the 70s in many areas, so getting a good night's sleep will be difficult without air conditioning.

There are signs that it could turn a little wetter again by next weekend.  That would drop temperatures a little bit, but the humidity would stay awful.  At least we'll have a shot of getting some badly needed rain five or six days from now.  Of course, the way this summer is going, the prospects of rain next weekend could evaporate before we get there.

The epicenter of the heat will shift gradually from the Northeast and Great Lakes to areas of the Plains and Midwest as the week goes on. That will continue for the following week as well.

Long range forecasts are tricky, as I always point out.  As it stands now, though, a torrid, dangerous heat wave will settle into the central United States.  We in Vermont will likely be out of the main heat zone by about a week from now. However, temperatures will remain warmer than averaage, with very likely some genuinely hot days thrown in.

It's too dry here, but at least the repositioning of the heat toward the west will slightly increase rain chances here in the Northeast starting next weekend, as noted.

This is very bad news for the middle and western parts of the nation, however, Much of the Rockies and Plains are in an increasingly bad drought.  The heat dome that will set up over the Plains will shut off pretty much all precipitation chances out there.

Plus the intense, sunny heat will make the drought intensify much faster.  Wildfires in the Rockies and elsewhere will intensify, too.

The super hot weather will also drive people indoors into air conditioned spaces.  Research into the coronavirus pandemic suggests that air conditioned air, if there's inadequate outside air intake, can make the spread of the virus worse in offices, factories, apartment buildings, restaurants and such.

This summer's weather pattern is consistent with what climate experts have been watching.  Heat waves and hot spells in general across most of the globe have been getting longer and more intense. 

As an aside, I was talking with my mother, age 91, and a lifelong Vermonter.  She said she doesn't remember such consistent and long and frequent hot spells when she was younger. Sure, there were heat waves, but they didn't practically last all summer.

That's an anecdotal story, of course, but telling.

During the upcoming week, try to get into cool places as much as possible. Don't overexert yourself, even if you are healthy.  Drink plenty of liquids and check in frequently with elderly relatives and freinds, because they are especially prone to illness and death during heat waves.

That's especially true with the hot spell coming in over the next few days, because the expected muggy nights won't give ua a reprieve from the effects of the heat.

Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.

Historic Northern Plains Snowstorm? And Big Coastal New England Storm

Weather map in late October, 1991, showing the massive blizzard
in the Midwest and the "Perfect Storm" off the New England coast.

The weather maps at the end of October, 1991 were among the most extreme in history.

In the middle of the nation, a historic, intense blizzard was under way, with three feet of snow in Duluth, Minnesota and 45 inches in Superior, Minnesota.

The storm was accompanied by very strong winds, making this among the worst blizzards on record for any season. Record, subzero cold followed the storm.

Meanwhile, in coastal New England, the famous "Perfect Storm" was raging. That's the storm made famous by the Sebastian Junger book and subsequent film.  It cause immense coastal damage from southeastern Canada, through coastal New England down into the Middle Atlantic States.

The two storms combined are one of the most memorable weather events in United States history.

History is about to repeat itself in a miniature fashion.  My intent is not to scare anyone, because what's coming up later this week is by no means as extreme and dangerous as the 1991 event. But still, I'm struck by how similar the weather maps of 1991 are to the expected weather maps of later this week.

Once again, a big snowstorm is expected to hit the northern Plains. And, a rather powerful coastal storm has the potential to cause some damage in coastal New England.  I mentioned the other day this might happen, and it appears to be coming to fruition.

NORTHERN PLAINS

While not as bad as 1991, the expected storms will be serious.  The exact location of the heaviest snow in the upper Midwest is yet to be determined, but toward the end of the week, parts of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota could see a foot or more of snow. Perhaps two feet. And, like in 1991, there will be strong winds.

The expected weather map for this coming Friday is eerily
similar to October, 1991.  Though not as bad as 1991,
another big snowstorm in the northern Plains and coastal
wind and waves will be a problem in the Northeast. 

Given how early in the season this snow is, there's going to be a lot of livestock losses and crop losses, since not everything is harvested yet.

Winter storm watches and warnings are already in effect in a large area through Montana, Wyoming, much of the Dakotas and northwestern Nebraska. Snow could fall as far south as Kansas.

The temperature in several cities will fall dramatically. It's forecast to be sunny and 75 degrees in Rapid City, South Dakota today, and by tomorrow night it will be in the mid-20s with blizzard like conditions.

The high temperature in Denver Tuesday is forecast to be close to 80. The high temperature there Wednesday will barely crack the freezing mark.

NEW ENGLAND 

Like the Midwest snowstorm, the exact track and position of upcoming storm off the East Coast is still full of question marks. The closer it comes to the coast, the worst things will be.

Coastal erosion and minor splashover flooding is almost guaranteed. But if the storm were to come closer than expected, the coastal flooding would be worse. Gales and heavy rain would sweep southern New England.

Again, this won't come close to being a repeat of the Perfect Storm, but it is something to take seriouis.

This storm probably won't affect Vermont much, maybe throwing some clouds our way Wednesday night and Thursday.  At this point, any rain from this would stay in southern and eastern Vermont.

Sept. Weather Pattern Gorgeous For New England; But For Rest Of Nation, Not So Much

Gorgeous sunset over northwestern Vermont last Sunday. This is a photo
I took from a hot air balloon.

We here in Vermont and the rest of the New England have been blessed by what has so far been a gorgeous September.

With few exceptions, we've had lots of sunny, pleasant days. Temperatures have generally been a tad cooler than normal, but not by much. Aside from a couple windy days that brought down a few branches, nothing bad has happened. 

This pattern is going to continue, except with some re-arrangements that will make warmer than normal temperatures more likely into early October. There will be episodes of rain and or wind thrown in for the next couple of weeks, but the sunshine seems like it might dominate.

This weather situation has been great for us. For much of the rest of the nation, not so much. On two occasions already this month, the pattern has steered two tropical systems into the United States, with destructive results.

After leveling the northern Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian sideswiped coastal North Carolina, causing a major storm surge flood on Oracoake Island. Then, as we've been talking about all week, Tropical Storm Imelda unleashed another epic flood disaster in Houston and other parts of eastern Texas.

The pattern has also emphasized storminess in the central and northern Plains. Record flooding hitting parts of South Dakota and Iowa earlier this month, and tornadoes swept through Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

It's not getting any better out in that part of the nation. The remnants of Isabel, plus moisture from tropical storms off the west coast of Mexico, combined with a cold front, are expected to unleash more dangerous flash floods today in the central United States, especially in parts of Kansas and Missouri.

Flash flooding and a possible tornado hit eastern North Dakota overnight. Meanwhile, the remnants of now-Hurricane Lorena, which is near Baja California, could unleash flash floods and severe thunderstorms in Arizona early next week.

A big, fat ridge of high pressure mostly centered in the east-central United States has been responsible for this pattern. Under this ridge, in the South and Tennessee Valleys, heat has broken hundreds of records and many cities look like they will have their hottest September on record.

(The fact that the high pressure ridge in the jet stream has been generally centered just west and south of New England has allowed cooler pushes of air to sneak down the front side of the ridge through Quebec and Ontario and on into New England).

With the ridge in the east, there's a corresponding dip in the jet stream over the western United States. That has produced some rare thunderstorms in places like Seattle this month.

There are signs that the jet stream dip in the West could sharpen in the coming days, opening up the possibillity of unusually strong rain storms for this early in the season, and an odd amount of early season snow in parts of the Rockies.

So yeah, us Vermonters can really rejoice in the great weather we've had,  considering we've been almost surrounded by all kinds of yucky and even dangerous conditions.

Enjoy it while you can, because I have an adage that has always worked: No great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We will get our comeuppance soon enough. What form that will take is anybody's guess.

Vermont Weather To Go From Wild To Mild, But For Rest Of Nation, Just The Opposite

A spring snowman in Peacham, Vermont today. Photo via
Twitter from Tim Scott Real Estate.

As expected, snow was falling in the higher elevations of northern New England, including here in Vermont.

Web cams from the ski areas all show snow covered slopes. According to National Weather Service reports this morning,
Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches. Danville, Vermont has seen 3.5 inches of new snow, with 3.3 inches on a hill above Ludlow; 2.5 inches in a high spot in Plainfield, and 2 inches at the 1,600 foot elevation in Marshfield.

After today, the weather in Vermont will improve through the rest of the week as we head toward near normal temperatures, we think, by the weekend. The weather will probably remain unsettled, but the snow will be over by Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, big trouble is brewing in much of the rest of the nation. It's peak tornado season. We're in a bit of a lull with the severe storms, which is great, but that's not going to last. Things might get very bad in the middle of the country by the weekend.

It looks like there will be a multi-day outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes in the middle of the nation. It will begin Friday and last through at least Monday. Weather pundits are saying this could well be the most impressive and potentially dangerous weather pattern in the Plains since 2003 or 2004.

It could also possibly be the worst outbreak of severe weather for the nation as a whole since 2011 or 2012, but that remains to be seen. The potential is there.

Details of how this possible outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes plays out is TBA, but I think you will be seeing such weather on the news by the weekend.

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam image along
Interstate 89 in Brookfield at mid-morning today. 

The stormy weather will also dump a lot of rain on the Mississippi River Valley and surrounding things. Not good, considering all the flooding that's been going on in the region since March.

Meanwhile, on the West Coast, an unseasonably cold and wet storm is expected to come in this week.  By this time of year, the kind of storm that brings inches of rain to the lowlands of northern California and feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains is pretty much over.

But that's exactly what they're going to get. Several inches of rain could fall in northern California over the next week. Winter storm watches are already up for the Sierra Nevada above about 6,000 feet in elevation.

California already had a wet winter, and there's still plenty of snow still on the ground in the mountains to keep already full reservoirs filled to the top. I guess these storms are the icing on the cake.

All of the weather drama I've described above is all related to each other. A deep dip in the jet stream is about to carve itself out along the West Coast. That'll drive the big storms inland into California and Oregon.

Then, pieces of storm energy will eject through the Rockies into the Plains. This will draw warm, wet air northward into the Plains. This will also cause strong wind shear in the atmosphere. (Wind shear is  wind direction and speed changing with height, which is one necessary ingredient for tornado outbreaks.)

The dip in the jet stream out west will build a northward bulge in the jet stream in the East. That will be one way to keep the warm, wet air flowing into the potential tornado zone, and it will warm much of the eastern United States up to summertime levels.

But that warm outlook is super uncertain here in Vermont. We'll be on the northern edge of that northward bulge in the jet stream, which means we'll be close to the border between summer like air to the south and springtime chill to the north.

Weather disturbances will zip along this boundary, whipping it up and down like a rope. That makes it impossible to time out when it will rain in Vermont over the next week and when it won't rain. It also makes it almost impossible to tell more than a couple days in advance how warm or cold it will be coming up.

As usual, what will happen next with Vermont's weather is anybody's guess.

Yes, Blizzard Storm In Plains Is Bad. Next Storm Could Be Worse

Lots of colors on the National Weather Service map, especially in the
northern Plains means lots of weather alerts. The red area is under
a blizzard warning. An active weather pattern over the next
week means there will be plenty of other weather warnings
and advisories in different parts of the nation.

As expected, a blizzard is striking a broad area from Colorado to Minnesota today, closing roads, worsening flooding and generally just being dangerous and highly unwelcome.

This might not be the worst of it. A new storm expected to start forming in Texas Satureday is likely to cause more trouble from the Gulf Coast to New England.

Unlike the current storm, the next one is poised to bring a lot more in terms of severe storms and tornadoes to the South. It also poses something of a flood threat in northern New England.

The storm now pounding the northern and central Plains isn't set up to create much in the way of severe storms on its southern flank. That's a bit unusual for such a strong storm, but it is fortunate.

There were some reports of large hail and gusty winds in and around Kansas last night, and there might be some strong wind gusts with thunderstorms today in and around Illinois, but this won't be a blockbuster severe weather outbreak.

That's not to minimize the effects of this storm. It's serious, and will cause a lot of additional flooding, especially when the up to two feet of snow expected to accumulate in some parts of South Dakota and Minnesota melt this weekend and next week. Rivers in this region were already flooding before this storm, so ---- not good.

Then there's the next storm.

Areas in yellow and orange are being watched for the risk of
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms Saturday.

It's always hard to pinpoint well in advance if a weather system will cause a lot of severe weather and tornadoes, but the new storm forecast to form in Texas and move northeastward toward New England over the weekend has forecasters nervous.

There's at least the potential that rotating storms will form well east of the storm's cold front. That could mean a dangerous tornado outbreak in the Deep South Saturday and Sunday.

Of course, severe weather forecasting is tricky. The South might get lucky and escape a widespread outbreak of tornadoes, but this is perhaps the highest potential for dangerous weather we've seen so far this spring.

Tornado outbreaks can be more dangerous in the South than in the Plains, by the way. More people live in mobile homes in the South than in the Plains, and manufactured homes are more dangerous in tornadoes that more rigid buildings. The South is more populated than the Plains, so tornadoes have more targets.

Many people make the mistake of looking for the approaching tornado when they get a warning rather than immediately taking shelter. In the South, tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in heavy rain and thus invisible, compared to storms further west. Plus, there's lots of trees in the South, which blocks the view of approaching dangers.

VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS

Certainly there are no tornadoes in the Vermont and New England forecast anytime in the near future, but this weekend storm does pose potential trouble.

Let's break it down:

The giant storm now striking the upper Midwest will move into Canada by Friday night and drag a weakening cold front through Vermont later Friday night or early Saturday. This will just drop perhaps a quarter inch of rain, which isn't that big a deal.

There's not much in the way of cold air immediately behind the cold front, so Saturday will probably be the warmest day so far this year. Temperatures will probably get into the 60s for many of us.

The light rain Friday night and the warm temperatures Saturday night will "prime the pump" so to speak. Deep mountain snow will start to really melt, and elevate river levels.

Then the storm from the South comes in Sunday night and Monday and it will drag a lot of moisture up with it. We could get an inch or even more of rain out of this and the snow in the mountains will continue to melt.

That means we have our first real threat of the spring that rivers could go over their banks. Nobody is sure how serious the flooding will be or even if we will get any. Just note that roads and properties in flood plains could go under water Monday and Tuesday, so plan accordingly.

This won't be a Hurricane Irene style flood, if it occurs, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern looks very active for the next two weeks, with the potential for frequent rain storms. If that comes to pass, we'll have to watch Lake Champlain. Water levels in the lake are currently rising, like they do every spring.

As of this morning, the lake level was at 98.31 feet above sea level. Flood stage is 100 feet. Lake flooding starts to get damaging at around 101 feet, and there is the potential the lake could get that high in the coming weeks.

Again, it might or might not happen. And it won't be as bad as the devastation of 2011. But if you have lakeshore property, it's time to start preparing for possible flooding.

Major Plains Storm Update: They're Screwed

The destroyed Spencer Dam in Nebraska after epic flooding in March.
A massive storm producing a blizzard and areas of heavy rain
will make ongoing flooding worse in the northern and central
Plains starting this week and continuing at least into next week,
and probably beyond that. 

The forecast for that major, possibly record-breaking storm in the Plains is coming into more forecast, and to say the least it spells major trouble for these already flood-wrecked areas.  t

A broad area in the western half of Nebraska, extending diagonally through central South Dakota into western Minnesota is under a blizzard warning as forecasts call for up to two feet of snow and winds gusting to 50 mph.  

On the southeast edge of this massive storm, mixed snow and rain, or just plain rain.

A broad area encompassing most of South Dakota, the northern half of Nebraska, and large parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota are going to get two to as much as four inches of rain, or the equivalent of that in snow.

In places that do get a lot of snow, it will start melting rapidly when the sun comes back out this weekend. That's true even if temperatures stay below normal behind the storm. "Below normal" in mid-April is still well above freezing during the day, and the strong April snow will eat into the snow pack.

Many rivers in this region are still in moderate to major flood stage from the big storm in mid-March and the ongoing snow melt over the past three weeks. This includes parts of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.

In the southeastern part of the storm zone, where there will be more rain than snow, the flood impacts will be almost immediate by Thursday. Then, next week, water from melting snow will move downstream, worsening flooding along the James, Big Sioux, Little Sioux and other midsized rivers. That water will find its way into the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.

Even farmland that doesn't flood is in deep trouble. It's  too wet to get equipment into the fields and spring progresses, and this will make the fields even soggier. And keep them wet much further into spring.

The flooding over the past month has caused well over $1 billion in damage and farm losses. This will make the situation much, much worse.

Long range forecasts also call for generally above normal precipitation across the middle of the nation for the rest of the month.

SEVERE WEATHER

As mentioned yesterday, a casual glance at how the storm will look on weather maps suggests a major tornado outbreak. This is not to be.

The storm will cause severe weather and probably a few tornadoes here and there, but the atmosphere isn't quite coming together for major tornadoes, which is obviously a good thing.  A small area of northern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska is under the gun for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two tomorrow.

On Thursday, the hail, wind and isolated tornado threat shifts to Illinois and Indiana. But again, there's always severe weather in April. This aspect of this giant storm will not be the historic part.

However the storm's cold front will hang up near the Gulf Coast and a new storm system will form along it. This new storm won't be nearly as intense as the one in the Plains tomorrow and Thursday.

However, this new, second storm has the potential to unleash quite a few tornadoes in parts of the Southeast. It's surely not definite yet, but it's something to watch.

That second storm could spell real trouble for us in Vermont, too. The first storm, the one unleashing the blizzard in the Plains, will send a cold front through New England later Friday with showers, but nothing extreme.  Just the usual April showers.

But that second storm has the potential to dump a late season snowstorm on Vermont. Of course, the track and intensity of this storm is wicked uncertain right now. Even if it were to score a major hit on us, temperatures will be on the borderline between rain and snow.

Just keep in mind, there's the chance - JUST the chance - that we might get one last nasty winter blast. Stay tuned on that one.

Big Storm Update: Tornadoes Hit NM; More Wind, Floods, Blizzard, Severe Weather Today

The giant storm in the Plains already looked
really wound up shortly after dawn
this morning. 

That big storm we've been talking about continues to raise havoc over the middle of the nation.

The storm spun off a couple of relatively rare tornadoes in southeastern New Mexico, causing six injuries and a lot of damage in the town of Dexter. Another dramatic-looking tornado passed near the town of Loving.

Storms roared across Texas, creating 80 mph gusts in Grand Prairie, Texas and 78 mph at the Dallas-Fort Worth airport early this morning.

There is the risk of more severe weather today, this time in the lower Mississippi River valley. The main risk from this is damaging straight line winds. But there also might be a couple more tornadoes.

Today, the focus is on the Plains, from near the Front Range of the Rockies out to near the Mississippi River.

It'll be a blizzard to the west, transitioning to a flood further east. And a TON of wind.

Yesterday was actually a lovely day in eastern Colorado. Temperatures reached the 60s with at least a little sun.

Today, rain will change to snow in Colorado and a blizzard will set in across the northeastern part of the state, including the cities of Denver and Colorado Springs. Further out into the Colorado Plains, where winds during tonight's blizzard could gust to a whopping 75 mph.

The Denver Post reports this might be the the strongest Colorado blizzard in decades. Flights in and out of Denver are already canceled, even before the bulk of the storm arrives.

A rare, large tornado neaer Hagerman, in southeastern
New Mexico on Tuesday. 

Obviously, travel is not recommended later today and tonight in Colorado, and in other areas that will get an intense blizzard out of this.

This blizzard zone also includes the eastern half of Wyoming, western Nebraska, western and central South Dakota, central and eastern North Dakota and the northwestern tip of Minnesota.

In parts of western South Dakota, up to two feet of snow might fall with winds gusting to 60 mph. That's pretty damn extreme.

There won't be as much snow further east, but the wind will certainly howl as the storm reaches its deepest barometric pressure, which might set records in Kansas tonight. Winds gusting to at least 75 mph could hit portions of northern Texas, western Oklahoma and the western half of Kansas tonight.

Along and near the big storm's path, there's an ugly variety of weather planned.  As an example, let's look at Yankton, South Dakota, where many of my relatives live.

High winds overnight collapsed this communications tower near
Abilene, Texas. Photo by Joe Fry via Twitter.

This morning, Yankton and environs is under a flood warning, due to snow melt and an expected inch of rain.

Snow and rain mixed now will change to rain. The melting snow and wet air is also creating dense fog. The rain this afternoon and tonight will probably also be punctuated by thunderstorms.

Tomorrow, the cold air will rush into Yankton and change the precipitation to snow, which will probably accumulate to several inches.

Winds could gust to more than 55 mph. Yankton's not alone. A lot of places in the northern Plains along and path of the storm face these conditions.

Here in Vermont, we're still expecting nothing too dramatic from this storm. A minor weather disturbance this evening seems destined to throw another handful of unwelcome snowflakes on especially northern sections.

But this snow won't be as surprisingly big as what happened Monday night, when north central and northeastern Vermont got a surprise 3 to 10 inch snowstorm. This snow also brought the depth of the snow atop Mount Mansfield to 116 inches. This, or whatever paltry amount falls tonight, will almost certainly be the peak depth for the season up there.

Funnel cloud over Mesa, Arizona as the giant storm began
to organize in the desert Southwest Tuesday.
Photo by Jon Morley via Twitter.

The warmth then temporarily comes in Thursday and Friday to melt some of the snow. Rainfall with this larger system Friday will be relatively light, so that won't contribute much to run off from the snow melt.

Still, there's a lot of ice jams or potential ice jams around in the rivers, so that could cause problems Friday and Saturday.  

The warmth here in Vermont will be short-lived, as we'll get into a chilly pattern again for the beginning of next week. No full on spring yet!

The good news for the nation as a whole is that after this one, the weather pattern across the nation will change somewhat. There will be less of a propensity for large storms to crash onto the California shores, then cause snowstorms, floods, severe weather and whatnot across most of the rest of the nation.

There will be minor systems in the week after this one, but nothing really major. So most people definitely get a break.

Brief video of a large, relatively rare tornado in New Mexico Tuesday:

Meanwhile, Winter Is Still Slamming Much Of The Nation

A snowy dawn in Manhattan this morning.

I've been obviously focusing on the major news of the day - the tornadoes in the Southeast - but meanwhile, winter is really hanging tough in much of the nation.

In parts of southern New England, the snowstorm last night managed to overperform. Most forecasts said few, if, any locations would get more than 10 inches of snow, and most places would come in at around six inches.

However, there were numerous reports of 12 to 16 inches of snow, with 17 inches reported at Burrillville, Rhode Island.

The snow was wet and heavy, so there were a lot of power failures in that region as well.

Here in Vermont, the snow was more in line with prior forecasts. The most snow I've seen in Vermont out of this so far is six inches in Wilmington, down near the Massachusetts border.

In central and northern Vermont, accumulations, as expected were in the one to three inch range. Burlington got 1.7 inches, and I measured 1.3 inches in St. Albans.

Elsewhere, bitter cold is the story. North Platte, Nebraska reported a low this morning of 25 below breaking the record there for lowest temperature for any day in March by three degrees.

Record lows were also reported from Colorado to Minnesota.

That cold air is heading east. That includes Vermont, but it won't be as cold as it was in the Plains. Like I said yesterday, we'll get a few days with highs in the teens to around 20 and lows around 0. Not record breaking, but still a good 15 to 20 degrees colder than average for this time of year.

A secondary surge of cold air tomorrow will likely set off some snow showers. A few could be very briefly heavy, especially in the mountains. This time of year, the sun is stronger. When the air is very cold, that helps create taller, billowing clouds that can squeeze out heavier precipitation than flatter clouds.

Still, accumulations will be light. Most of us will get a dusting. Some northern mountains could pick up a few inches.

The next chance of any kind of storminess around New England is this coming Sunday.

Early Winter Blast Coming Into Nation, Including, Eventually, New England

If you like winter, you'll love the weather in much of the nation
over the next week or two. The cold weather makes here into
Vermont this weekend and especially next week.

If you love winter, you're going to be ecstatic about the weather pattern across most of the nation in the coming week to 10 days.

What may well be the coldest spell of November weather since at least 2014 - and in many areas since long before that - is entering the picture.

Pretty much everyone east of the Rockies will share in this mid-winter type joy, if you can call it that.

The epicenter of this cold blast is, as usual, places like North Dakota, northern Minnesota, northeastern Montana, those types of areas. In some North Dakota towns, the temperature went below freezing yesterday and probably won't get above 32 degrees again until the middle of next week.

The cold from Canada will come in waves, which is normal, with the strongest shot likely to start plunging southward on Sunday and engulfing most of the eastern United States next Monday through Thursday.

Parts of the northern Plains could have overnight lows below zero next week. High temperatures in a broad area reaching all the way across New England could easily have high temperatures that never make it above freezing.

There are some signs the Southeast might really be super cold, relative to average. It won't be like North Dakota down there, but to them, it could end up feeling like the heart of January. We'll see.

It's a bit soon to say how this cold spell will rank historically, but given the warm autumns much of the nation has had in recent years, this will feel kind of shocking.

Of course, when it's that cold, it snows. It's a little hard to tease out at this point who will get the heaviest snows. There will certainly be some lake effect thumpers in places like Michigan, northern Ohio and western New York.

Here in New England, it's possible we could get a lot of snow from a storm or two, but that's still unlikely. But we will face the prospect of at least a little snow, and the first true widespread bout of icy roads, even in the valleys.

Us Vermonters can enjoy some relative warmth this week before the cold settles in. There will be a gradual cool down between Wednesday and Sunday, and the biting weather will come next week.

Before it gets too cold, another round of rain seems likely Friday and Friday night. Some of that might come down as snow in the higher elevations Friday night. We'll have to wait until they fine tune the forecast to see how much snow falls up there and to which lower elevations, if any, the snow reaches.

Big Ocean Waves Shock And Awe The Pacific Northwest; Storminess Spreading Across U.S.

Crashing coastal waves in Oregon sent this big log
through a motel window. At least one person died
when he got too close to the big waves this past week. 

I've always wanted to take a vacation to the coastline in the Pacific Northwest during the winter.

People say I'm crazy for saying that. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a dark, rainy, stormy place for most of the winter.

Which is why I'd like to go there this time of year.  The immense waves from giant Pacific Storms that crash onto the rocks and sea stacks are a sight to behold. And, I imagine, a photographer's dream.

This week, the Pacific Northwest got a little more than they bargained for, as the waves were even more intense than they usually are. The crashing waves yesterday were bigger than locals have seen in many years.

While fascinated to watch, you've got to be careful, as these waves can get even bigger than you'd imagine. Tragically, a man was swept out to sea in Oregon by a wave yesterday and is presumed dead.

Elsewhere along coast, the high tides and waves were enough to flood shoreline roads and buildings. A seafood restaurant and a couple of motels in Lincoln City, Oregon had windows blown out and other damage, says OregonLive.com Waves also crashed into the ground floor of a condominium, sending a woman flying across a room.

Other people had close calls, too. A woman was injured when she was knocked over by a wave a Lincoln City, Beach. She was taken to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. Another man and his dog were swept off a beach by a sneaker wave but the man and his dog were able to claw their way back onto shore.

In Cannon Beach,Oregon a popular go to place in winter storms for weather and photography enthusiasts like me, sea water pushed into town.

There's video of this at the bottom of this post. Also some of the storminess from the Pacific Northwest is consolidating into a storm that will cause problems in much of the United States. And it will affect us here in Vermont, too.

My in-laws in Yankton, South Dakota yesterday enjoyed a mid-winter heat wave that set temperatures all the way up to 61 degrees as warm air bathed the central Plains. I hope they enjoyed it, because Yankton and a large section of the Plains is now in the path of a new winter storm.

Winter storm warnings as of this morning extended through the central Rockies into most of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota. Winter storm watches extended from South Dakota into Minneasota. Looks like there will be quite a bit of snow and wind in this band Sunday and Monday.

Since this storm will go by to the west of New England, we Vermonters are in for another spell of mixed precipitation and rain. It'll start as snow and a mix Monday night. It looks at this point like it'll be mostly rain Tuesday, before colder air comes in at night to create some snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

It won't be nearly as warm, and it won't rain nearly as hard as it did a week ago Friday, when we had flooding and ice jams. This storm probably won't cause new problems in that regard, but ice jams remain in Vermont and other sections of the Northeast.

The thawing and rain could aggravate those situations and maybe cause new flooding or ice movements, so keep an eye on that one, will ya?

Now the Pacific Northwest videos

Here's an aerial view of the tides coming up onto a road in Ocean Park, Washington, forcing motorists to scramble to get out of the way:

Severe Ice Storm To Slam Central United States

The University of Vermont green during the epic ice storm of 1998.
There will likely be similar scenes in the central United States
this weekend as a large ice storm is set to develop.
Photo from the Vermont Dept. of Forests, Parks and Recreation

You'll be hearing about this one on the news over the coming few days.

A long lasting, crippling ice storm is about to hit the middle of the nation, and this one has all the potential to be one of the worst on record.

A huge area in the middle of the country is under an ice storm warning. The zone include almost all of Missouri, most of Kansas, part of Illinois, the northwestern half of Oklahoma and part of northern Texas.

This area is expected to be hardest hit, but a huge surrounding area extending all the way into the Ohio Valley and north to South Dakota and the Iowa/Minnesota border are also under the gun for snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The areas expected to be hardest hit including bigger towns like St. Louis, Kansas City (hunker down, brother-in-law Brian!) and Wichita.

This isn't just going to be a day of super icy roads. This will go on for two or three days, and the ice accumulation will be so thick that very many trees and power lines will come down. People are going to be without electricity for days.

For us Vermonters with a fairly long memory, I would compare the upcoming Plains disaster to the epic ice storm in Vermont, New York, Maine and Quebec in January, 1998 that caused massive destruction and killed dozens of people.

I'm not sure the Plains ice storm will be as bad as the 1998 storm in New England and Quebec, but it will be almost as disruptive.

By the way, if you're in Vermont and worried we might get eventually be hit with us, it's not going to be too bad. It looks like the sprawling storm that will cause the severe ice in the Plains will throw a little mixed precipitation our way, but the consequences will be potentially icy roads, and not tree or power line damage here.

Out in the Plains, the ice will slowly move northwestward with time. Areas in the southern fringes of the ice zone, like Oklahoma City and eventually St. Louis and Kansas City, will likely change to plain rain Sunday.

By Sunday, the freezing rain will have spread north, to places like Iowa and Nebraska and maybe South Dakota, so those regions will be in the crosshairs of the ice by late in the weekend.

This ice storm is the same system that dumped a foot of snow on Portland, Oregon, paralyzing that city with the most snow in two decades.

Storms Roundup: All Kinds Of Hotspots (Or Coldspots) Cropping Up

Lake Tahoe region buried in snow as of Tuesday,
with more falling this week. 

So far, this winter hasn't been particularly cold across the nation, but it sure has been stormy

Oh sure, there have been so very chilly Arctic outbreaks, but the main story is the storminess, and I don't see that ending anytime soon.

VERMONT WIND

First, a quick recap of the wind here in Vermont last night. It played out pretty much as expected, with the strongest winds in the Champlain Valley and parts of New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

The highest reported gusts from last night were 62 mph at Colchester Reef, Vermont and Malone, New York. South Hero clocked in with 56 mph. Many places had gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range last night. 

That prompted the usual spate of downed trees and power lines. Not the biggest disaster in the world, but still a headache for some.

As of around 9 a.m. today, there were still about 700 homes and businesses without electricity in scattered areas of the state.

Another storm system will drop some rain on Vermont Thursday, with a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain. Sorry snow lovers, not this time.

After that, Vermont gets a several days break from storms, but that's not true for the much of the rest of the country.

THE WET (AND SNOWY!) WEST

The West Coast continues to have quite a wild ride, though signs are that at least temporarily, the main action is going to shift somewhat north toward Oregon and Washington.

A view of the snow in Portland, Oregon last night. 

Oregon already has its hands full. The Portland area is really having an uncharacteristically rough winter.

They've had a fair amount of snow, two ice storms, most recently this past weekend, and last night, the city came to a standstill amid another snowstorm.

Only four days in Portland have been warmer than normal since December 4. Precipitatio during Portland's "rainy season" which begins around Oct 1 is running more than five inches more than normal.  

The rest of this week in Oregon looks cold, then rainy and/or icy by the end of the week, again.

In the mountains, things are even more gummed up. Crater Lake National Park closed because of heavy snow and an avalanche. 

California and Nevada are still reeling from the past week's rain and snow. Mammouth Mountain in California got mammoth amounts of snow - 15 feet in just six days. Try shoveling THAT!

Three to ten feet of snow has piled up in the highest elevations in the Sierra Nevada the past couple of days.

There's a cohple good videos of the snow in the West at the bottom of this post.

Lower elevations are still experiencing flooding, though rain is tapering off and won't be particularly heavy in California for hte next few days anyway

There was even a small tornado near Sacramento yesterday.

PLAINS ICE?

Forecasters are getting more and more concerned about the possibility of a damaging ice storm somewhere in the southern and central Plains toward the weekend. There's already a winter storm watch up for parts of Missouri starting Thursday and continuing into Saturday

Areas of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kansas might also be under the gun with this. Nobody is quite sure where the worst of the freezing rain will set up yet, but it appears someone out there is going to get enough ice to bring down lots of trees and power lines.

This could be a long duration event, lasting several days into early next week. This could really be a paralyzing storm for some spots in or near the mid-Mississippi Valley. Damaging ice could eventually extend eastward into the Ohio Valley, too.

The storm will be wet enough to likely cause flooding south of the potential ice zone. Stay tuned on this one. Could be quite a mess!

For videos, here's the scene in snowy Truckee, California yesterday:



Here's a brief aerial view of traffic chaos in Portland, Oregon last night:

No Gigantic Tornado Outbreak On Tuesday Defied Forecast, But Don't Complain

A tornado near Howe, Texas Tuesday night.
There were far fewer tornadoes Tuesday than
expected, and that's a good thing. 

I suppose you can say the forecasts for the central and southern Plains was wrong for Tuesday.

I, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and lots and LOTS of other forecasters said there was a good possibility of strong, long-tracked tornadoes for that region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

There were none.

Oh sure, there were some smaller tornadoes, And lots of big hail and thunderstorms with destructive winds. And flash flooding.

For the record there were 13 preliminary reports of tornadoes Tuesday, 388 reports of damaging winds and 273 hail reports, so it was definitely a stormy day out there.

But there were none of the expected huge, photogenic but unwanted tornadoes that literally tear communities apart. If a forecast is going to be inaccurate, this is the type of inaccuracy I like.

True, municipalities closed schools and made other emergency preparations that might not have been necessary, but that's good practice.

Hordes of storm chasers looking for their dream tornadoes came away disappointed, and wasted money and time chasing nonexistent storms.

But those are the breaks! And there will be other tornadoes to chase. Possibly in the next few days, in fact.

Look at this way. Communities are not in ruins. Families are not mourning dead fathers, mothers, children, aunts, uncles.

As noted, there is the possibility of dangerous thunderstorms, and tornadoes daily for the next week in different parts of the country. Don't let your guard down in those areas.

In fact, on Wednesday, there was an outbreak of tornadoes. Not the worst ever, but still bad. There were 19 reports of tornadoes in an arc from Iowa through Illinois into western Kentucky.  One tornado touched down in the Omaha, Nebraska metro area Wednesday and caused damage.

So it wasn't all good news on the tornado front this week.

The lack of enormous tornadoes on Tuesday, while definitely a very good thing, highlights the fact that we still have a lot to learn about forecasting severe weather.

Forecasts have gotten much, much better, but we still can't forecast precisely where tornadoes will hit more than a few minutes or at most, an hour, before they strike.

And overall storm systems sometimes "over perform" dropping more, and more dangerous tornadoes than expected. And sometimes we get days like Tuesday, where it's not as bad as feared.

One preliminary look at what made Tuesday's forecast gratefully wrong was a subtle feature in the air mass over places like Oklahoma and Kansas.

You need massive updrafts as one important ingredient in the formation of supercell thunderstorms that produce tornadoes. That was certainly in place Tuesday. But there was a subtle layer in the atmosphere where the updraft wasn't as violently upward as expected. In fact, there was a little layer of sinking air in spots.

That might be one reason that tornadoes were stifled. And another lesson learned for forecasters.

The lack of tornadoes Tuesday just might have made forecasting future tornado outbreaks just a tiny, tiny bit better in the future.

Here's a video of a funnel cloud/tornado lurking behind a building in the Omaha, Nebraska area Wednesday:

Watch Extremely Narrow Escape From Oklahoma Wildfire

A road grader operator flees as an Oklahoma
wildfire engulfs him Tuesday. He was rescued by
television station storm chasers.  

The Plains States have been getting hammered by repeated, large wildfires this spring.

They've had repeated bouts of hot, bone dry, very windy weather. The resulting fires have damaged or destroyed many homes and scorched hundreds of square miles. 

More wildfires broke out in Oklahoma yesterday. One burned through 28,000 acres in northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday.

Television station KWTV has video of storm chasers Val and Amy Castor, who were out documenting the wildfires when they encountered a road grade operator who was stuck as large flames approached him -- and quickly!

Val Castor, a veteran of many, many tornado chases and wildfire chases, said he'd never seen a wildfire move that fast.

Miraculously, after the fire passed by and firefighters doused it, the road grader was still operational.

Still, the guy in the road grader would have been burned to death had he not gotten out with the help of the Castors, as you see in the video below:

Southern Plains Ice Storm and Floods Grind On For Third Day

Ice making a street very scary in Amarillo, Texas.
Photo by Sean Steffan/Amarillo.com 

Early Saturday morning, it was still raining hard in parts of the southern Plains and a nearly continous dousing of freezing rain was plaguing other areas, especially northern Texas and much of Oklahoma.

This storm is playing out pretty much as expected, which is cold and wet comfort to the people experiencing the storm.

It does seem as if this is another over-performing winter storm, though, as the ice seems more widespread than many thought, and in some areas, the ice accumulation is thicker than many forecasts.

(It does seem that storms this fall have consistently produced deeper snowfall, more rain, stronger winds and more violent weather than forecasts ahead of these storms)

Black Friday was slick Friday in many areas, including Amarillo, Texas. The Amarillo Globe News reported dozens of car wrecks, and up to 13,000 homes and businesses without power in much of North Texas.

Most of western two thirds of Oklahoma aren't worth driving through, either, at the moment because of widespread icing. Some of the ice is more than a half inch thick there, so trees and power lines are really coming down now. Widespread power failures are reported in much of Oklahoma..

Flash flooding was ongoing early this morning in wide areas of southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, southwestern Missouri and parts of northeastern Texas after more than half a foot of rain fell in some areas. And it was still pouring early Saturday morning.


Ice storm damage Saturday in Oklahoma, via KOCO

The Dallas Morning News reports at least three people have died in that region in the flash flooding that's been going on there for the last couple of days.

As of yesterday, Dallas, Texas has picked up 55.26 inches of rain so far this year, so it's already their wettest year on record, besting the 53.54 set in 1991, says Dr. Jeff Masters Bob Henson in their Weather Underground blog

A few places in Oklahoma and eastern Texas have gotten an incredible 70 inches of rain so far this year. Baytown, Texas as gotten 90 inches of rain this year. Pretty damn soggy. 

Of course, many factors went into the epic Oklahoma and Texas rains this year. El Nino, stuck weather patterns and bad luck are all reasons.

But the situation is consistent with scientists' assertion that global warming is causing more extreme and intense rain storms, so it makes sense climate change might have played a role here, too.

Dangerous Flooding, Icing Continues In Southern Plains

Bad weather in the central and southern Plains today.
Ice storm, winter storm and winter weather advisories
(in purple, pink and blue) and flood alerts (in green)

Some of the worst possible weather you can get this time of year is going on in the southern Plains extending into the Ozarks.

Where it isn't very icy, there's a major flood threat in the region. And where neither is happening, it's snowy and windy.

More often than not, storm systems during the late fall, winter and early spring zip right along, meaning any one location usually ends up with just a day of bad weather before things improve.

This thing is slow, slow slow. An upper level low pressure system is in the region, a mass of cold air has plunged southward through the Plains, and the set up has created a very sharp cold front that is just inching eastward as little ripples of low pressure run northward along the front.

As expected, wetness from Hurricane Sandra off the west coast of Mexico is getting into the Plains system.

By the way, this hurricane adds to what has been an incredible hurricane season in the eastern Pacific. Sandra intensified to a Category 4 storm yesterday with sustained winds of 145 mph. This is latest in the season that a major hurricane has been observed in the Western Hemisphere.

This follows Hurricane Patricia off the Mexican west coast in October, which was the most intense hurricane on record in the western hemisphere.

Very weird indeed.

Anyway, back to the southern Plains. Some areas in the central panhandle of Texas and southwestern Oklahoma can expect a half inch or more of freezing rain/ice accumulation through Saturday. Combined with gusty winds in the region, that will be more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

Travel through that area will be next to impossible today. I hope people don't drive around there looking for Black Friday Christmas bargains. Is a cheap flat screen TV really worth sliding your car into a telephone pole and getting killed?

I stll think the big story out of this storm will be the flooding. Some areas have already picked up two to four inches of rain, and another four to eight is due through Saturday.

I noticed Dallas has now broken a record for the rainiest year on record. The old record was 53.54 inches in 1991. Through Wednesday, Dallas had 50.55 inches of rain. But by my calculation, Dallas had received 3.83 inches of rain out of this storm through 6 a.m EDT, bringing the year's total to 54.58 inches for a new record.

Additional rain if forecast in Dallas through Saturday.  I'm sure they're thrilled to death at Southfork Ranch over this forecast.

As has been forecast for days, I think the heaviest rain, though, will be in northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and most of Arkansas. I'm sure you'll be hearing on the news about the very nasty flooding that will develop there today.

This slow storm will eventually move off to the Northeast and weaken. The Northeast is due for rain and maybe a little bit of snow inland early next week, but by then, precipitation won't be particularly heavy.

VERMONT:

Since this is a Vermont based blog, for my Green Mountain State readers, I'm going to start at least occasional forecast discussions or factoids for our area.

Expect windy conditions in the Champlain Valley today, but it will be warm for the entire state today. It was already 52 degrees in Burlington before dawn today. The normal high temperature for the entire day is 41 degrees.  It'll be way up in the 50s statewide this afternoon. (50s doesn't sound too impressive to people reading this south of here, but really, 50s in late November is considered very toasty in Vermont.)

It'll get cloudy today if it isn't already and rain showers will begin to move in from the west late today, and pretty much everybody in Vermont will get wet tonight.

Near normal high temperatures in the 30s with little if any precipitation is due in Vermont Saturday through Monday.

Extreme Winter Pattern Finally Breaks, But Doesn't Necessarily Help

Whiting, Maine this winter. New Englanders want
to leave this past extreme winter behind,
and it is departing, only in fits and starts, though.
Photo by Harry Snyder.  

The extreme winter weather pattern over North America has finally broken in favor of a more spring seasonal arrangement, but that doesn't necessarily mean everybody is going to be happy.

As you know, the pattern featured record heat and drought in California. (I'll have a separate post on that dire situation later).

The winter pattern contributed to extreme cold in the Northeastern United States and eastern Canada, and epic snows in eastern New England and southeastern Canada.

A number of Northeastern cities including Bangor, Maine, Syracuse, New York, Hartford, Connecticut, Worcester, Massachusetts and Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, had their coldest first three months of the year on record.

The normal polar vortex, which held a position in Canada which helped along the horrible winter weather, is breaking down and weakening, like it normally does in the spring.

Unfortunately for warm weather lovers, this doesn't necessarily mean spring weather will exactly bloom in New England, though. Wintry weather is going to linger off and on for awhile.

NEW ENGLAND

Warmer weather will indeed stage a welcome invastion into New England today and especially Friday.  Widespread temperatures in the 50s and 60s are forecast, especially on Friday. Lows tonight in all areas except northern Maine will stay in the 40s.

Luckless northern Maine is under a winter weather advisory for snow and sleet tonight.

A cold front will cross the Northeast Friday night, and a strenghtening storm system will ride northeast along the front.

Temperatures will crash late Friday night into Saturday. Combined with the storm, several inches of snow could come down on northern New York and northern New England through Saturday.

Sorry.

Most of next week looks chilly and damp with cold rain showers, mixed with snow in the north of New England as chilly weather hangs on. But the weather pattern that's bringing that cool air is nothing like the winter setup, so it won't be as awfully far below normal as it's been.

Still, next week's chilly, somewhat wintry weather will be extremely frustrating for New Englanders, as areas from the Mid-Atlantic states on south will enjoy balmy, sunny spring warmth.

There are uncertain signs that it could warm up to nice spring levels in New England late next week. We'll see.

SEVERE WEATHER

Spring patterns usually brings severe weather to parts of the nation, and that's no exception here.

There were a few scattered report of gigantic hail in the Plains states yesterday. Today, the severe weather will intensify, especially in southern Missouri, southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky.

(This is part of the same storminess that will bring rain, then snow to northern New England Friday through Saturday)

Hail piled up near Dallas yesterday. From WFAA. 

There could be a couple tornadoes in this region today, but as has been the case for the past couple of days, the biggest threats are large hail and destructive thunderstorm winds. These same areas could get some flooding from heavy downpours as well.

On Friday, the severe weather threat shifts to Mississippi, Tennessee, and northwestern Alabama. Just like today's bad weather, this area on Friday could get a couple tornadoes, but mostly damaging hail and winds.

More to the west, in the High Plains from the Dakotas to West Texas, it remains very dry, and warm, and windy, with low humidity. As has been the case all week, there's a very high risk of wildfires in that region. 

The weather pattern will remain favorable for occasional areas of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes next week, but pinning down which areas are under the gun and how widespread severe weather will be, if it occurs at all, is hard to do days in advance.