Tropical Trouble And A Cold New England

A big area of ugly weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico might
become Tropical Storm Cristobal

They told us this year would be an incredibly active Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season ad it's already off to a busy start.

True, the first tropical systems of the season have not been super strong, but that's typical.

The official Atlantic hurricane season didn't begin until yesterday, but there have been two tropical storms already, Arthur and Bertha, both of which had relatively minor effects on the U.S. Southeast coast during May.

There's now another tropical system bubbling in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It's a tropical depression, which means it has a real circulation like a tropical storm, though it's too weak to be considered one.

If this thing does become a tropical storm, they'll name it Cristobal.  If wannabe Cristobal does become a tropical storm by June 5, it will be the earliest on record to have three tropical storms in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center says the forecast for wannabe Cristobal is uncertain, as it's trapped in a broader circulation in the Bay of Campeche.  It might even dissipate in favor of a new storm, or wannabe Cristobal could just smack into land and dissipate down ther.e

Or, it could be drawn north toward the United States Gulf Coast. If that happens, it's possible the storm could feed off very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and approach hurricane strength, or even possible become a hurricane. Which would be odd for early June. That type of thing normally waits until later in the summer.

Few, if any forecasters expect this thing to get super strong, but that doesn't really matter. Tropical storms, especially slow movers like wannabe Cristobal, can dump torrential rains and cause some pretty extreme flooding.

On the other side of Central America, on the Pacific side, a relative weak tropical storm named Amanda just caused immense flooding and landslides in El Salvador and Guatemala that killed at least 17 people.

The remnants of Amanda are one ingredient that is helping form wannabe Cristobal, by the way.

NEW ENGLAND CHILL

I guess opposites attract in northern New England.

After last week's record heat, record chill descended on Maine, especially in the north. Houlton, Maine this morning got down to 26 degrees, which is that town's all-time record low for the month of June. It was 91 degrees in Houlton on May 27.

Caribou, Maine got to 31 degrees, which was good enough to break a record for the date, but not the entire month.

Clouds sort of kept temperatures up overnight in Vermont last night. However, some gardens in the Green Mountain State were wrecked by frosts yesterday. For instance, it was 29 degrees in Gallup Mills, way up in the Northeast Kingdom, 30 degrees in Island Pond and 31 degrees in South Lincoln.

It'll keep gradually warming up through the rest of the week.






El Salvador and Guatemalaen

Still Wowed By May Cold, Snow, Some More Still On The Way

A wintry looking evening in St. Albans, Vermont Saturday as snow showers
loom over Lake Champlain to the west. 

On those very rare occasions when there is a May snowfall,  it usually happens at night. The strong May sun during the day will change the snow to rain, or at least prevent any accumulation.

The extreme cold of the atmospheric blast of frigid air that roared down from the Arctic this weekend was so strong, that it snowed during the day as far south as New Jersey. That is what impresses me most about this unreal spring cold snap.

True, most of the heaviest accumulations of snow came Friday night and before dawn Saturday.  But dustings of snow briefly covered the ground in places like Connecticut, Massachusetts and the lower Hudson Valley of New York.  Those little instant snowstorms were created by snow squalls.

The cold was so intense, but the May sun is so strong, it all created towering clouds. Normally those towering clouds would create intermittent downpours of rain this time of year. But the atmosphere up above was record cold for this time of year. So it snowed.  A couple videos are at the bottom of this post.

Islip, Long Island reported a latest on record trace of snow.  That is actually more snow there than fell in February, when it didn't snow at all in Islip.

Before the snow squalls, the main accumulation of snow came as a storm passed near southern New England and off the coast.

These types of storms sometimes form something called a "deformation band" to the northwest of the storm center. These cause narrow bands of heavy snow accumulations during storms in the middle of winter. But not in May, in my experience.

Except this time. One such "deformation band" set up in southwestern Vermont and adjacent New York, mostly near and east of Glens Falls and Saratoga.

A spot at a 1,300 foot elevation in Cambridge, New York,  less than 10 miles from the Vermont border, received a whopping 12 inches of snow.  Nearby Shaftsbury, Vermont had 10.5 inches. Arlington, Vermont clocked in with 8.8 inches and high elevation Woodford, east of Bennington, reported 8.5 inches.

In northern Vermont, snowfall was a little lighter, but still impressive in spots. Concord, in the Northeast Kingdom reported 7 inches and Cabot received 6.5 inches.

Wide areas of the nation experienced almost unprecedented May cold on Saturday. According to The Weather Channel, Van Wert, Ohio, plunged to 18 degrees, the only time it's been under 20 degrees there in May, with 127 years of records.

Fort Wayne, Indiana got down to 23 degrees. Until Saturday, the latest in the year it had gotten that cold in Fort Waye was April 20, in 1897 and 1904, says The Weather Channel. Binghamton, New York set its all time record low for May with 24 degrees. Indianapolis, Indiana did the same with their reading of 27 degrees.

Wild looking snow squall over Staten Island, New York on
Saturday. Photo by Collin Gross, @CollinGrosswx

Daytime temperatures were impressive as well. At 4 p.m. Saturday - remember, this was May 9 - temperature in Montpelier was 29 degrees.

Last night here in Vermont, the wind kept blowing and the core of the very coldest of the air passed by to the northeast, so temperatures in Vermont didn't bottom out as low as they could have.  Montpelier actually rose into the low 30s after dark and stayed that way through dawn, for instance.

The air overhead with this cold blast is still frigid, and will stay that way for a few more days.  There's even a reinforcing shot of cold air coming, but it won't be quite as bad as Saturday.

Today will be "warmer" than Saturday, with highs in Vermont in the 40s to around 50.  That's still close to 20 degrees colder than normal.

A small storm will cross New England Monday. This time, it will be mostly rain, but some mid and high elevation snow is possible in southern and central Vermont.  It just can't stop, can it? Unfortunately, it looks like most or all of the precipitation will miss bone-dry northwestern Vermont.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will come in Monday night and Tuesday, so we'll need to watch for more hard frosts and freezes Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday nights.   Highs Tuesdays will again be frigid for this time of year, with readings staying at or below 50 degrees during the afternoon.

After that, a real, gradual warmup will begin.

There's another really intense ball of frigid air setting up for next week near Hudson Bay, but definitely don't let that scare you.  Unlike the one that came down on us Saturday, this next one will sit and spin for a few days up there, then get shunted almost due east into far northeastern Canada. It'll be a sure miss for us. Thank Gawd!

The only reason I mention that next ball of cold air is there's a good chance it could send a "back door" cold front down on New England, which would temporarily limit the amount of warming we get a week from now. But again, don't, if we get that cold front, it will only be somewhat cool for May, not scarily cold.

For the rest of the month, it does look like squirts of warm air will keep trying to punch into the northeast, including northern New England, which will help make this frigid spell just a bad memory.

Videos:

Jon M. woke up to this snowy scene in the green, or at least formerly spring green lower Hudson Valley of New York.




A guy named Mitch, a meteorologist and snow enthusiast who goes by @VermonsterWx on Twitter - great to follow by the way, filmed this at his high elevation home in Readsboro, Vermont. The snow was actually dry and powdery, like winter.



And here's some clown mowing his lawn in the May snow. I think it's in Pennsylvania, but I'm not sure:

As Expected May Snow And Cold Hits Hard

Snow settles on this weather-weary looking daffodil in my
St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Much of the eastern United States has done a time warp and gone back to March, at least in the weather department.

As expected, there's widespread cold and snow around, and it ain't done yet.  There are some pretty impressive facts and figures with this blast of Arctic air.

New York's Central Park reported a trace of snow, tying with 1977 as the latest snowfall on record there.

Up here in Vermont, some early reports are pretty wild for May 9.  At an elevation of just under 1,500 feet in Cabot, 6.3 inches of powder fell. There was a report of six inches in West Pawlet and 4.8 inches in East Barre.

Heavy snow was reported in Bennington at 7 a.m. There were numerous reports of four or more inches of snow in different parts of Vermont.

At my place in relatively low elevation St. Albans, Vermont, I "missed out" on the snow with an accumulation of only 0.2 inches.  I'm not complaining that I didn't get buried, that's for sure.

The cold in the East is widespread and record breaking.  That's because there's pretty much been nothing like this type and intensity of a blast of cold air straight from the Arctic this time of year.

Dozens of cities reported record lows for today's date. It appears that more than two dozen cities in the Midwest and East at least tied their records for their all time lowest readings in the month of May.  Theres surely a lot of crop damage out there.

In one other snow report I didn't mention earlier, there was 3.7 inches of new snow at a high elevation spot in Readsboro,  The reason I waited to mention this now is because the temperature there was only 24 degrees. The snow there was light and powdery, like January. Not the wet snow you'd expect so late in the season.

This rapid drop in temperature with elevation, as we saw in Readsboro this morning, is key to the rest of the day here in Vermont.

The storm system that brought the snow overnight and this morning is moving away, even as it turns into an incredibly strong nor'easter for this time of year in the Canadian Maritimes and northern Maine.

Another snowy daffodil in my St. Albans, Vermont garden this morning. 

However, the core of the coldest air from the Arctic will be overhead today in northern New England. You'll continue to see these incredibly cold temperatures at high elevations, and it will be ridiculously cold as you go up and up above the mountain tops.

The sun angle this time of year is about the same as it is at the beginning of August. That means a strong sun will try to heat the ground.

Spotty sun is developing as of mid-morning. This sunshine is causing rising air currents. The air currents rise much more quickly and efficiently when it's cold up above.

That creates billowing clouds and showers. Or in today's case, snow showers. The sky might actually be rather picturesque amid these blustery snow showers. I guess that's a bright side, no?

As I mentioned yesterday, today's weird situation will create those numerous snow showers, especially this afternoon.

The winds will be strong and gusty today to begin with, and they will be more so under these snow showers. When or if you get hit by one, you'll get a brief period of heavy snow, stronger wind gusts and a quick temperature drop from today's already low readings.

It's going to be a strange day indeed.  

And one more, just to rub it in. 

The forecast going forward for the next few days hasn't changed much. It'll warm up, sort of Sunday, but stay incredibly cold for this time of year with highs in the 40s to around 50 in the Banana Belts of Vermont.

Monday will be "warmer" still with highs in the 48-55 range. Then we have a setback on Tuesday when it will get colder again with highs staying down in the 40s. After that, the warmup will resume, with near normal temperatures in the  low 60 by Friday.

Before then, we will have almost nightly problems with frosts and freezes at least into Wednesday morning.

The next shot any any real precipitation in Vermont will probably come along next Friday. Mercifully, all that Friday weather will be in the form of rain, NOT snow.

CLIMATE CHANGE:

By the way, this record cold spell says nothing about climate change. Or if it does saying anything about the subject, it's counterintuitive.

While we New Englanders shivered in April, most of the rest of the world was warm. April, globally will likely come in as one of the top three warmest on record.

Also, while this cold wave is freezing gardens throughout the eastern half of the United States, many other places are warm.  The western U.S. is experiencing record high temperatures. Unprecedented warmth has enveloped Siberia, where wildfires are breaking out many weeks before they normally do.

Overall, cold waves are becoming less frequent than they used to. So when you get one like this, it really captures your attention.

You can't judge one odd weather spell in one little corner of the world to pick on climate change.

Having said that,  the bitter Arctic May air is unsettlingly consistent with what a lot of climate scientists have been warning us about.  The world is indeed warming, but it might be making the jet stream, which controls the path of weather systems, much more wavy.

With bigger northward bulges and bigger southward plunges than normal, climate change can make things weirder. Even as it warms up overall, every once in awhile, this newly wavy jet stream can create some sharp, intense cold waves. That is, if you're caught in one of those oddly deep dip in the jet stream, as we currently are.

I can't say one way or another if this particular cold wave has anything to do with the above. But it is similar to what a lot of the climate scientists are tellling us. Just sayin'.

Snow, Record Cold, Hail, Storms, Twisters: We Just Can't Have Nice Things

Springtime killed. Amid a dusting of snow, the sagging blooms and
the dark color leaves on these daffodils in my yard indicate
they might have been destroyed by the frigid temperatures. Photo was
taken while temperatures were still well below freezing. The
damage will probably be more apparent later. 

In the grand scheme of things, the losses and potential losses I found outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning were pretty small.

But they were still disheartening.

I kind of expected it, but it was a shame to see the daffodils and other plants and flowers that had been coming up likely ruined by the intense cold from last night.

If any of them survived, they won't tonight as temperatures are likely to be in even colder tonight. I'll know at the end of the week what, if anything, survived. I have a feeling I won't even get to enjoy lilacs this year. Those buds could be damaged, too.  

Who knows? Maybe most of the plants will recover.  But I'm not optimistic at this point.

Amid everything that has been going on, it was nice to get some peace in my gardens from the early season blooms. Now those are gone, at least for now. So that was taken from me.  Everything had been coming up, so I don't know what kind of flowers and blooms I get later in the spring or summer.

Well, there's always next year.

As if to add insult to injury, as I started to write this, snow began to briefly fall pretty heavily. The sickening winter sound of a snow plow scraping by bothered me, too. There's not much snow, but it's blowing around and making the roads slick. It's not the usual April wet snow. It's powdery. Roads are frozen. Like January. Ugh.

At last check it was 18 degrees up in Saranac Lake, New York. The "warmest" parts of Vermont were in the upper 20s early this morning.  Snow covered the ground across most of northern Vermont, and I'm sure gardeners statewide found the same depressing sight out their doors that I did this morning.

Tonight, Vermont is in for record or near record cold. The record low tomorrow morning in Burlington is 23 degrees and in Montpelier it's 21 degrees. Those records are in jeopardy. Some areas of the Northeast Kingdom will probably be in the mid-teens tonight. A few places up there might not even get above freezing today.

Again, my "suffering" isn't that at all. Just a little disappointment. But you can't help but think the weather has gotten pretty mean-spirited.

I can't attribute today's weather to climate change.  It could be random, and you really can't take one weather event in one little spot on the globe and point at climate change.

However,  in a perverse way, it's consistent with it. We've been warned by scientist - as I recall since the late 1980s at least - we were heading toward a future that was generally warmer, but with a higher risk of sharp day to day jolts in temperatures and weather conditions. We were warned of warmer temperatures interrupted by sharp, damaging cold spells. That future is here.

Like what has been happening in lots of places, increasingly in recent years, things get going early in the spring due to oddly warm temperatures. Then an old fashioned quick freeze comes and ruins everything.

For me this year, it was just a bummer. For many agricultural interests in much of the eastern United States, this will be a disaster at a time they really don't need anothe disaster.

Freeze warnings are up for a broad area of the Middle Atlantic States, with temperatures likely to reach the 20s as far south as Virginia. Orchards and early crops in this region are in big trouble.

SEVERE STORMS

Gigantic hailstones came down overnight near
Devol, Oklahoma. Photo via Twitter/KOCO

And, as I've mentioned practically every day this month, severe storms keep rolling on.  Here's the latest update.

Those severe storms in the Middle Atlantic States certainly materialized.  Though tornadoes were not expected, one might have hit Toms River, on the Jersey shore. There's a lot of damage to trees and some houses, there, so the weather folks will probably investigate that today.

There was a tornado warning at one point for pretty intense rotation on the Bronx/Yonkers border yesterday afternoon, ut I don't know if anything actually touched down.

Yesterday, overnight and this morning, large hail, sometimes baseball sized, pelted parts of Oklahoma.

Tornadoes are in the forecast today for a broad area centered on where Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana meet. The tornado threat will spread into much of the rest of the Southeast tomorrow.

Back up here in Vermont, we're not expecting any severe weather. The frigid weather is enough, thank you. Although it will warm up somewhat starting tomorrow afternoon, it looks like it's going to stay colder than normal into early May.

If any of our garden plants can grow back, they'll have to wait awhile.

Record Winter Weather Persisting In Vermont; Wintry Week Ahead, Too

As can be seen with this map (click on it to make it bigger and easier to
see) ice accumulations with the upcoming storm look like they
will be around a tenth of an inch. That's not enough to bring down
trees and power lines, but more than enough to make road
conditions dangerous. Map is from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. 

It seems like winter has gone on forever already, even though it's only mid-November and our early siege of mid-winter type weather has only gone on for about a week to ten days.

As expected, the cold intensified overnight, with low temperatures tying and setting records, and falling to levels that would be considered chiller than normal for mid-January.

Quite a few places across Vermont managed to get below zero last night, which really is something for this time of year. Island Pond bottomed out at a remarkable 11 below, and Averill was close at 9 below.

In the tropical part of Vermont, Burlington tied its record low for the date at 7 degrees above zero. St. Johnsbury had a record low of 1 below.

Temperatures are moderating under sunshine as we get into Sunday afternoon, but it's still a lot colder than normal.  As mentioned yesterday, we are also in for much more ugly winter weather to come.

We are still due for freezing rain, sleet and finishing off with snow Monday afternoon, night and Tuesday. As is always the case with these situations, some places might be marginal between the rain and ice line, but count on slippery roads and sidewalks starting by Monday afternoon at the latest.

The drive home Monday evening will be lousy, and so will the trip into work Tuesday morning. The precipitation is not going to be especially heavy, but a little bit of ice goes a long way toward making life miserable.

It's also unclear at what pace Monday night and Tuesday morning we'll transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow, but I guess most places in Vermont can expect at least one to three inches of snow and ice, with locally higher amounts.

Unsettled weather will continue pretty much all of this coming week, with rain and snow showers around.  It will stay about ten degrees colder than normal during the week, but I suppose that's better than the 20 to 30 degree below normal air we've had over the past couple of days

It's hard to say whether this frigid November is a harbinger of an exceptionally rough upcoming winter in Vermont.

This is ancedontal, but a November and awful lot like the current one came in 1967.   If the rest of this winter follows like it did in December, 1967 through early 1968, the news isn't good.  December, 1967 was slightly colder than normal. January, 1968 was brutal. That month set a record for the most consecutive hours of subzero weather in Burlington, though that record was broken in February, 1979.

January, 1968 was the fifth coldest on record. February, 1968 was much colder than normal, too. Mild air did not return that winter until late March.  So yeah, I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself in this case.

Brutal Vermont Cold Update; Australian Wildfires

Record early season cold has engulfed Vermont and most of the
eastern United States. Burlington, Vermont this morning also set a
record for the coldest for so early in the season.

Like we expected, it's brutally cold for this time of year here in Vermont, and across much of the eastern United States.  Record lows are falling like crazy in the Green Montain State and elsewhere.

As of 7 a.m., it was 9 degrees in Burlington, Vermont.This is a record low for the date, beating the previous low of 15 degrees. It is also the coldest for so early in the season.

Before midnight Tuesday in Burlington, it got to 14 degrees, which managed to break the record for the date of 15 degrees, set in 1933.

It looks like there's a good chance we'll have three consecutive days of record low temperatures, as Thursday morning might set another record.

Also, the high temperature in Burlington Tuesday was just 26 degrees, which was a record for the lowest high temperature on that date.  Today, if you consider the low temperature and the expected high temperature, would be colder than normal for January

Burlington's string of record lows this week is especially remarkable because the city has such a long period of record.  They started keeping track of Burlington's daily weather in the 1880s.  The longer period of record you have, the less chance you'll see record highs or lows. That's because it's likely most days have seen something close to their highest or lowest possible temperatures.

This is also the second November in a row with a remarkable cold record in Burlington. Last November, the city experienced its earliest subzero reading on record.

Most of Vermont and northern New York before dawn were in the single numbers. Rutland was pretty remarkable at just 6 above zero.  Wind chills were mostly in the single digits below zero this morning.

Several other cities, like Burlington, broke records just before and just after midnight. They include Dayton, Ohio, South Bend, Indiana and Memphis, Tennessee, so you know the cold is widespread.

I expect all in all, a few hundred record lows will be broken by the time this cold wave ends towards Sunday or so.

AUSTRALIAN WILDFIRES

It's quite the opposite problem in Australia, and a much worse one at that.

Peter Parks AFP/Getty

We can survive shivering in the cold, and all most of us suffer from is increased heating bills. (Although I have to acknowledge this early season cold is very dangerous and potentially deadly for vulnerable populations, like some elderly people and of course the homeless.)

In any event, the Australian wildfires are extreme, even by their standards. Worse, this is hitting just at the beginning of their wildfire season, so it will be a long few months Down Under.

In the province of New South Wales, at least 200 homes have burned and three people have died, reports the BBC. 

The weather will continue to be dangerous and make Australia prone to more wildfires through the rest of the week.

Snow Kidding: Vermont, New England Weather Will Be "Normal" For March, Not May On Tuesday

Mother's Day was not a lovely day for a drive along the Mass Pike
in a high spot in the Berkshires. Photo via Twitter
@hockeymomct

Yesterday, I talked about the prospect of snow in Vermont and New England, and it now looks like some high elevations spots will get lots of snow, and even some valleys could get some relatively rare mid-May flakes.

Welcome to March in May. Tuesday's high temperatures are almost sure to break records for the lowest high temperatures for May 14.

More on this in a moment, but first I'll recap Sunday's snowy foretaste of our May winter storm that parts of southern Vermont and western Massachusetts.

While people along the Canadian border in Vermont enjoyed a little sun and not-bad temperatures near 60 degrees, it was a completely different story down south.

Bennington, normally a warm spot in Vermont, stayed in the low 40s all day under rainy, drizzly skies. Go uphill a bit from Bennington, and you encountered snow. Accumulations only amounted to a half inch or a little more.

Still, that was enough to make the Mass Pike slick in a high spot in the Berkshires, leading to several crashes and traffic jams as motorists were probably unprepared for snow on Mother's Day. Which is reasonable. You normally don't build snowmen in the middle of May.

The snow tonight and Tuesday will be much more widespread than Sunday's. It will especially affect the high elevations across central and northern New England. If you are a diehard winter sports fan, the summits will be the place to go, as they will get hammered.

The peaks of the Green Mountains and possibly the Adirondacks could get up to 10 inches of snow. The summits of the White Mountains of New Hampshire are in for at least a foot.

Snow levels could go down to 2,000 feet or even lower by Tuesday morning in Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't predicting much in the way of accumulation. Still, I imagine grassy surfaces and such will see some light, slushy accumulation.

Especially if you've taken your snow tires off, I'd reconsider driving through the higher elevations late tonight and tomorrow.

I'm guessing some wet snowflakes could make it all the way down to some colder valley floors Tuesday morning.

Nevertheless, it will be, as noted, a miserable March day in May across the region Tuesday. Where it doesn't snow, a cold rain will fall. High temperatures across Vermont Tuesday will range from the 30s in the higher elevations to the low or mid 40s on valley floors.

These will be record cold high temperatures.  The record "low high" for Burlington Tuesday is 51 degrees. The current "record low highs" are in the mid and upper 40s for most other weather stations in Vermont.  Normal high temperatures this time of year are in the mid-60s. So this is a pretty impressive cold snap for May.

Luckily, all the clouds and precipitation and breezes will keep nighttime temperatures this week near and above freezing, so no hard frosts will wreck any plants and flowers growing outdoors.

After tomorrow, it will slowly warm up during the rest of the week, and we'll be back to near normal readings in the 60s in the afternoons by the upcoming weekend.

Most Of World Has Been Warm Lately, But Great Falls, Montana Is New Global Ice Box

The departure from normal of temperatures across the globe Tuesday.
Blues and purples are below normal, oranges and reds are
above normal. Almost everywhere except the United States was warm.

It's been pretty damn cold over the past month in much of the United States and parts of southern Canada.

That's especially true in the northern Rockies and northern Plains of the United States and adjacent areas of southern Canada. Those areas have been consistently the coldest place on Earth, relative to average.

Of course, this area isn't THE coldest spot on Earth, but just the furthest below normal, just to be clear.

Montana seems to be the epicenter of this extreme and long cold wave.

In the opening days of March, some areas in this region had their coldest temperatures on record for the month. Elk Park, Montana was 46 below this week. If verified, that would be the coldest temperature on record for the entire state for March.

Cities in Montana that set their all-time March low temperatures this week include Eureka at -23, Miles City at -31 and Livingston at -27.

Elsewhere, North Platte, Nebraska reached 25 below early this week, setting a March record there.

To give you an idea of how miserable it's been in Montana, let's dig deep into the city of Great Falls. On Sunday, the city had a high of -8 and a low of -32, which is incredible 50 degrees below normal. I don't remember the last time I've seen a departure from normal that big anywhere.

For comparison, if it were 50 degrees below normal here in Burlington, Vermont yesterday, the high and low temperature would have been -14 and -32, and that would have established a record for the coldest day of any day in any month on record. Thank goodness that didn't happen and it was only 11 degrees colder than average Wednesday!

Back in Great Falls, each of the past 31 days have been at least 15 degrees colder than normal and 20 of them were 30 or more degrees chillier than average. You think it wouldn't snow much at such low temperatures, but Great Falls had 32.3 inches of snow in February. It's certainly been a winter to remember in Montana.

It'll sort of warm up in Great Falls and the rest of Montana later this week, but it will still be a good 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal. The number of consecutive days below freezing there is now 32 days, which is a new record, and that streak will grow this week.

I'm sure Great Falls is lovely, but I'm glad I'm not there.

As the Weather Channel points out, the United States is sticking out like a sore thumb in global temperature maps this week, as you can see in the illustration in this post. Cold air which is normally up in the Arctic has been displaced southward by a ridge of high pressure over and near Alaska.

That high pressure has brought record warmth to the northern tip of Alaska. Most of the Bering Straight off the west coast of Alaska between the Pacific and Arctic oceans is ice-free, the first time anybody has seen such conditions in that part of the world this time of year.

Despite the cold in central North America, preliminary data indicates that February, 2019 will likely come in as the world's third warmest on record. Part of the counterbalance came from Alaska, much of Siberia, parts of western Europe and Australia, which have reported record warmth over the past month or so.

Meanwhile, Winter Is Still Slamming Much Of The Nation

A snowy dawn in Manhattan this morning.

I've been obviously focusing on the major news of the day - the tornadoes in the Southeast - but meanwhile, winter is really hanging tough in much of the nation.

In parts of southern New England, the snowstorm last night managed to overperform. Most forecasts said few, if, any locations would get more than 10 inches of snow, and most places would come in at around six inches.

However, there were numerous reports of 12 to 16 inches of snow, with 17 inches reported at Burrillville, Rhode Island.

The snow was wet and heavy, so there were a lot of power failures in that region as well.

Here in Vermont, the snow was more in line with prior forecasts. The most snow I've seen in Vermont out of this so far is six inches in Wilmington, down near the Massachusetts border.

In central and northern Vermont, accumulations, as expected were in the one to three inch range. Burlington got 1.7 inches, and I measured 1.3 inches in St. Albans.

Elsewhere, bitter cold is the story. North Platte, Nebraska reported a low this morning of 25 below breaking the record there for lowest temperature for any day in March by three degrees.

Record lows were also reported from Colorado to Minnesota.

That cold air is heading east. That includes Vermont, but it won't be as cold as it was in the Plains. Like I said yesterday, we'll get a few days with highs in the teens to around 20 and lows around 0. Not record breaking, but still a good 15 to 20 degrees colder than average for this time of year.

A secondary surge of cold air tomorrow will likely set off some snow showers. A few could be very briefly heavy, especially in the mountains. This time of year, the sun is stronger. When the air is very cold, that helps create taller, billowing clouds that can squeeze out heavier precipitation than flatter clouds.

Still, accumulations will be light. Most of us will get a dusting. Some northern mountains could pick up a few inches.

The next chance of any kind of storminess around New England is this coming Sunday.

Welcome Warmth Is Also Bringing Ice To The North Country

A dangerously icy staircase. Watch out overnight and
Sunday for ice underfoot as freezing rain and
then a thaw will make things slick underfoot

That just-ending cold wave here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast keeps getting more impressive, in terms of new records set.

The record low in Burlington, Vermont of 1 below on Friday was the earliest subzero reading in the record books, which date back at least to the 1880s. The previous earliest subzero reading was on November 25, 1938.

That is quite a record to set given the overall climate is a little warmer than it was decades ago.

Plattsburgh, New York had a record low of 5 below and Saranac Lake, NY chilled our hearts with 20 below.

Temperatures are still expected to get to near or above freezing this afternoon, to the record cold is over. Although we'll have chilly spells, there's no sign of bitter Arctic air returning at least through early December.

The price we'll have to pay for this warmup is ice. Rain will start spreading into northern New York late this afternoon and into Vermont this evening and continue overnight. Temperatures will be within a few degrees either side of 32 degrees overnight statewide, so that means freezing rain will be a problem.

As such, there's a winter weather advisory for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County. The winter weather advisory is also up for the Adirondacks and northeastern New York.

Ice accumulation on trees and such won't be enough to bring down branches and power lines, but will be more than enough to create dangerous driving conditions overnight.

Air temperatures will probably stay a little above freezing overnight in the Champlain Valley, which is why there's no weather alerts. But it's been so cold lately that rain will freeze on untreated surfaces even with "balmy" air. Pavement, sidewalks and such have been chilled to below freezing and it will take awhile for all that to warm up.

We're not even completely out of the woods Sunday afternoon. It will be thawing, and light rain will be drawing to a close. But hard-packed snow on driveways and walkways tends to turn into an especially slick type of ice under these conditions, so if you like falls and broken bones, I guess it will be your day. Be careful!

Another stronger storm that will cause a winter snowstorm from Nebraska through Iowa and on up into Michigan will affect us in New England Monday. It'll be mostly a cold rain here, with some snow mixed in, especially in the higher elevations and in the Northeast Kingdom, on up into northern New Hampshire and northern Maine.

The remains of the storm will linger into midweek, with lots of snow showers around then, mixed with cold raindrops in the valleys. That's actually pretty typical weather for the close of November

Awfully Cold Here, But Warm In Much Of The Rest Of The World

Lots of steam billows from the McNeil Woodfired Electric generating plant
in Burlington, Vermont as temperatures sank to record lows this morning.

Boy, this Thanksgiving cold wave really is one for the record books here in New England.

I have to go back to, I think, to late November and early December 1989 to find a cold snap of this early season intensity.

Lots of record lows were set. Particularly record low daily "high" temperatures for the date.  Burlington, Vermont only reached a so-called high temperature of 14 degrees on Thanksgiving. The previous record low high for the date was 22 degrees, so we shattered that record.

Other record low "highs" were 14 in Plattsburgh and an astonishingly chilly 8 degrees in Montpelier. Back in Burlington, it was the coldest Thanksgiving Day on record, too. The previous record was 19 on November 24, 1938.

Morning record lows on Thanksgiving in southern New England included 7 in Worcester, Massachusetts, 9 in Hartford, Connecticut and Providence was 15 degrees.

Worcester, with a maximum reading Thursday of 16 degrees and Hartford, at 21 degrees, set all time records for the coldest maximum temperature of any November day on record.  Portland, Maine also had it's coldest November high temperature on record.

More record lows are being set this morning. Overnight it was 19 below in Saranac Lake, New York. Burlington, Vermont has so far gotten to 1 above, exceeding the record low for the date, which had been 2 above. 

Also this morning, Albany, New York had a new record low of 4 above, Glens Falls had a record low of 3 and Poughkeepsie had a record low of 6.

It will warm up to seasonable levels over the weekend. Today will still be super cold, but not as bad as yesterday.

We do have to be careful with this warmup later Saturday and Saturday night. Rain is expected to move in to northern New England, but the ground got so cold during this bitter snap that rain might freeze to pavement and other surfaces even if the air temperature is a bit above freezing.  I suspect the National Weather Service might issue winter weather advisories for parts of the region Saturday night.

We will get our thaw, amid periodic rain Sunday and Monday, so some or even much of the snow in the valleys will melt.

But it's back to "Snovember" Tuesday and Wednesday as snow and snow showers move in. At least during next week, it won't be nearly as cold as it's been in the past couple days.

WARM ELSEWHERE

Yearly temperature departure from normal of Octobers on
Planet Earth since 1880. Blue is cooler than normal, red is
warmer than normal. Notice a trend?

New England yesterday was the coldest place on the planet, if you are looking at how far everyone's temperature was below or above normal. In fact, most of the world was warmer than normal yesterday.

New England has been pretty much trapped in generally cooler than normal conditions since the second half of October, but that certainly hasn't been the case for most of Planet Earth.

October overall was the second warmest on record for the world, according to NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information.   Only 2015 was warmer. The only places that were chilly were central and eastern Canada, parts of the northern United States, and to a lesser extent, China.

The hottest places in October, relative to average, were Siberia and Alaska. Go figure.

So far, January through October, 2018 is the fourth hottest year on record. The previous three years, 2015-2017 were the only years that were toastier for the Earth as a whole.

Watch Those Snow Squalls Today! And Then Bundle Up

Don't be these people. A snow squall caused this pileup in
Pennsylvania last year. One person died and
several were injured. If snow squalls threaten,
be very careful on the highways, or better
yet postpone travel until after thd squall passes.

Some of what you're reading here today is similar what you saw yesterday, but it bears repeating: Watch out for those snow squalls today!   

I get nervous when snow squalls are coming in, especially on a busy travel day like this, the day before Thanksgiving. They are a recipe for highway pileups.

As I've said before, when a snow squall arrives things instantly on the highway go from dry and clear to no visibility in blinding snow and suddenly icy roads.

All those cars and trucks screaming down the highway at top speed tend to smash into each other when then encounter snow squalls and the result is those big awful and often tragic multi-vehicle pileups you often read about in the winter.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington already has a special weather statement out alerting us to the possibilit of snow squalls today. Some lighter snow showers had already worked into northern New York and far northwestern Vermont by 7:30 a.m. this morning.

The NWS office will likely issue snow squall warnings for specific areas during the course of today. If you hear such a warning for your area, try to delay travel until the squall passes. You don't want to be caught out in those things.

If you're already on the road, do what I plan to do. If you see a squall coming at you or you get a warning, pull off the highway into a safe place. Much like summer thunderstorms, snow squalls are intense, but almost never last long. Let it blow over, then carefully get back on the roads.

Those roads will be icy, but at least visibility will have improved once the squall passes. And what I call the Salt Shakers, those state highway trucks, usually appear right after squalls to plow and put down grit to make the roads safer.

Just as in summer thunderstorms, not everyone will get a snow squall today. But they will be numerous enough to be a concern.  Since squalls don't last long, most places will only get one to three inches of snow today.

Generally speaking, the snow squalls today are most likely late this morning across northern New York and from noon to perhaps 4 p.m or a little after in Vermont. The rest of New England can expect scattered snow squalls into this evening.

As today's National Weather Service snow accumulation forecast
map shows, most of us will only get 1-3 inches of snow today,
but most of that will come down in short, very heavy
bursts during snow squalls. 

Still, that continues the trend of this year's "Snovember." While not breaking any records to speak of, it's been much snowier than average.

Burlington, Vermont, for one example, has had 10.6 inches of snow so far this month. That puts us. 8.2 inches above normal for the month and 7.9 inches higher than average for so far in this young winter season. We're off to a good start in the snow department.

We're still expecting that intense, near record cold to come in tonight and Thanksgiving Day behind those snow squalls. As a reminder, Burlington's coldest Thankgiving had a high temperature of 19 degrees.

The current forecast has temperatures in Burlington fallling to around 16 degrees by midnight tonight and staying at or under that level until at least noon on Friday, so we have an excellent shot of experiencing our most frigid Thankgiving. Oh joy!

It's going to be pretty breezy tonight and tomorrow, too, so wind chills will be painful - certainly below zero. If you're brave enough to participate in one of those "Turkey Trots" the famous five or 10K local running races we have scattered about, either bundle up or blow it off. It's a bit dangerous

It's still looking somewhat warmer, but wetter going into the weekend and into the first part of next week. It'll be warm enough so that much of the precipitation will come down as rain in Vermont's valleys. At least that's the way it looks now. Stay tuned!

We Might Have The Coldest Thanksgiving On Record

ABC News gives us this forecast for wind chills on
Thanksgiving Day. Ugh. 

People might associate the words "cold turkey" with quitting smoking.

But this Thanksgiving, all you will want to do in New England is quit being outdoors.

We're setting up for what looks like the coldest Thanksgiving on record. Data is slightly hard to come by, because Thanksgiving comes on a different date every year. But people have compiled some of this, and it looks like it will at the very least be brutal.

Add in some gusty northwest winds, and it will be awful. By the way, if you're silly enough to be going to the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade in New York, expect temperatures at parade time to be around 20 degrees.

Yeah, better watch that one on TV.

Nighttime lows might not a huge number of records over Thanksgiving as but daytime "highs" might.

For instance, here's what the The Weather Channel has forecast:

CITY                        FORECAST HIGH               RECORD LOWEST HIGH
New York                          26                                                26 -- 11/28/1901
Boston                               22                                                24 -- 11/28/1901
Providence, RI                  22                                                28 -- 11/28/1996
Philadelphia                      28                                                30 -- 11/28/1996
Burlington, VT                 17                                                19  -- 11/24/1938


In some areas in the far north, say the Adirondacks, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine, high temperatures might not crack 10 degrees.

By the way, for comparison's sake, the normal high temperature in Burlington this time of year is in the low 40s. In mid-January, in the depths of winter, normal highs are in the mid to upper 20s.

Before we get to the cold, we've got snowy Thanksgiving travel trouble to talk about. In most places, snow accumulations won't be all that much, but the snow will probably put a monkey wrench in some holiday travel.

Today, it's snowing lightly through much of New England, except in the far south, where a cold rain is coming down. A few places in areas like southern New Hampshire might get as much as four inches of new snow.

On Wednesday, the cold front that will bring in the brutal Thanksgiving cold will also touch off some snow squalls. Snow squalls are particularly dangerous on roads, where there will be a lot of traffic as people rush to get to their destinations.

Visibilities in snow squalls drop to nothing in an instant, and roads ice up just as quickly. I worry about the risk of some of those big pileups you see on the news when snow squalls hit. This risk is in effect throughout much of the Northeast tomorrow. That includes here in Vermont, folks.

The best guess for the timing of the snow squalls at this point is noon to 2 p.m. in the Champlain Valley and 2 to 5 p.m. in central and eastern Vermont.

Chances are we'll get a bit of a break from this winter siege toward Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday. The weather won't exactly be nice, and in fact will barely rise to normal levels. Conditions will also be unsettled Sunday and Monday, with a risk of rain and wet snow.                

Amazingly Intense Early Winter Blast Keeps Engulfing Eastern U.S.

Santa enjoys an unprecedented November snow at the Alamo in
Texas. Photo by Eric Gay/AP

This winter blast affected the eastern two thirds of the United States is turning out to be one for the record books.

We here in Vermont are engulfed in this remarkable cold and snowy regime, too, and that will last well into next week.

Some of the weather in parts of the nation have been truly amazing. Houston, Texas had its earliest trace of snow on record on Tuesday, beating the previous mark set on November 23, 1979.

It snowed in southeastern Texas this year earlier than it has snowed in Boston, which hasn't had a flake of snow yet. (It's coming to Boston soon, though.)

Amid snow flurries, Shreveport, Louisiana only had a high temperature of 40 degrees Tuesday. The normal high would have been 69 degrees. Measureable snow hit Pine Bluff, Arkansas this morning for only the fourth time it has snowed there in November since records began in 1890.

Yesterday's snow was all about elevation near the Champlain Valley. Very
scant snow cover at my St. Albans, Vermont house at about
600 foot elevation. See comparison pic below.

Freeze warnings were in effect this morning all the way down to Brownsville at the southern tip of Texas.

If anything, the weather is about to turn worse in the South, and up here in the Northeast, too.

A deep dip in the jet stream is generating a new, wet storm in the Southeast. With plenty of unseasonable cold air to work with. Winter weather advisories were in effect this morning as far south as Louisiana, where snow and sleet were falling.

A winter storm warning is up for tonight for areas as far south as southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri, where five to seven inches of snow is in the forecast.

The storm will continue to organize later today and tonight and then move up the East Coast. As it does so, temperatures will become a little closer to normal in the Southeast, but the winter siege will continue further north in the Great Lakes and the Northeast for many days to come.

Just up the hill from my house in St. Albans at about 850 foot elevation,
just roughly 250 feet higher than my place, it was a winter
wonderland Tuesday afternoon. 

Winter storm watches from this storm already extend as far north as Pennsylvania, where snow and quite a bit of ice will likely come from this storm Thursday into early Friday.

I'm sure we here in Vermont will soon see either winter weather advisories or winter storm watches soon, as the cold storm is likely to affect all of us.

But first, it's damn cold out there.  High temperatures this time of year in Vermont are usually in the mid-40s.

Today it will only get into the mid-20s, with wind chills in the single digits. That's not even a particularly nice day by January standards, never mind November.

Yesterday's snowstorm didn't leave much accumulation in the Champlain Valley but there is quite a bit in central and northern Vermont a little inland from Lake Champlain.

Many areas received two to eight inches of snow. Lyndon Center reported 9.6 inches. Morgan received 9.5 inches and Rochester 9 inches. North Danville got 8.5 inches and Island Pond clocked in with 7.8 inches.  

Snow on the ground, clearing skies and oddly Arctic air in place tonight means some areas of Vermont and surrounding areas will get shockingly cold.

Most of the northern half of Vermont away from Lake Champlain will get into the single digits tonight, and I'm sure we'll get quite a few reports of subzero readings. This is record cold, for sure.

Even in the relatively snow-free Champlain Valley, record lows tonight are possibility. In Burlington, the record low tomorrow morning is 9 degrees. The forecast low is 11.

Then that storm comes up from the south by Thursday night and Friday. This won't be a blockbuster, but still a decent plowable snow for pretty much all of us. Even in the "tropical" Champlain Valley, which didn't get much Tuesday.

There's still quite a bit of uncertain on the moisture profiles with the upcoming storm. Will any warm air will move in aloft to change snow to mixed precipitation? Will dry air entraining into the storm affect how much snow or other precipitation falls?

But for now, the early guess is we'll all get a good three to seven inches of snow out of this. Plan on a lousy Friday morning commute, I can tell you that.

After a "reprieve" on Saturday, when temperatures could get to 40 degrees or so, it's back in the ice box after that. It's possible another round of record cold temperatures - even worse than tonight - could come in by Tuesday.

One computer model has high temperatures -- highs!!! --- only in the single numbers. Which is awful by mid-winter standards. We'll see how that works out, but gosh, this is intense.

This November cold doesn't really tell us whether we're going to have a particularly harsh winter or not. I hope we're not establishing a trend, though.   If it's this wintery in November, imagine how brutal January would be under this weather pattern.

But weather patterns change. Don't abandon your Vermont house and move to Tahiti just yet.

Another Week Of Winter For U.S., Then Some "Relief" * Results May Vary.

Tree down on a house in Hamburg, New York after Wedneday's storm.

Boy, as anticipated, we're in the midsts of one of the most active, and most wintry early Aprils I can remember.  I'm not just talking here in Vermont, which has so far missed the worst of it.

There has been some incredibly unseasonable cold and snows in weird places for this time of year, and it's only going to continue.

I'd say a good chunk of the nation still has a week of winter in April to go. After that, I think temperatures will moderate to springlike levels in most, but not all areas. But the weather pattern will remain active and stormy and at times and in places, dangerous, though most of the rest of the month.

First, we should review our very Windy Wednesday

WIND DAMAGE GALORE

As expected, the Northeast and southeastern Canada got whipped by a super nasty windstorm on Wednesday. The worst of it was concentrated in western New York and parts of Ontario and Quebec. We here in Vermont got in on the action, too. More on that in a second.

At least 80,000 people lost power in Ontario, mostly in the Toronto metro area amid winds gusting well over 60 mph in some areas.

A crane in Mississauga, Ontario collapsed in the wind, the brick wall of a townhouse was torn off by the gales, and some windows popped out of Toronto area highrises.

In Quebec, at least 55,000 homes and businesses lost electricity in Wednesday's windstorm.

New York was hard hit. In northwestern New York, a 36-year-old man was killed when the winds collapsed a sugar shack where he was making syrup. A 15 year old boy in the shack escaped.

More than 80,000 New York residents lost power. Gusts flipped some tractor trailers on the New York State Thruway. Winds gusted to 65 mph in Rochester amid snow squalls.

Here in Vermont, winds last evening gusted as high as 63 mph on Burton Island and 56 mph in Enosburg Falls.  

I live in St. Albans, not far from Enosburg, and I would estimate gusts as high as 50 to 55 mph on my high, west-facing property that is exposed to strong west winds.

Video here shows the wind beginning to crank in my yard last evening. The willow tree to the left ended up losing a few branches.

Winds gusted as high as 113 mph on top of Mount Mansfield.

Green Mountain Power said more than 22,000 homes and businesses lost power in last night's storm. More than 18,000 outages were still ongoing in Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. today, and it might take a few days to get everybody's juice back.

The wind has since died down, but of course the wild weather pattern has not. Next, we have at least hree snowstorms that will cross the country. Some will affect us here in Vermont, some will not. Details interspersed below:

SNOW #1

An Alberta Clipper type storm is crossing the Great Lakes today and will head across New England tomorrow. Many people from Michigan to Maine will get a dusting to as much as five inches of snow.

That includes us here in Vermont. Temperatures are going to be tricky, so it's hard to determine whether and how much rain will mix in. On the one hand, the precipitation won'st start until late morning or early afternoon in most areas, so the temperature will have risen above freezing by then. That would favor some rain, at least in the valleys.

However, the air will be initially dry. The precipitation moving in will tend to evaporate at first, cooling the air, setting us up for snow. Right now the thinking is a slushy coating in places like the Champlain Valley and up to four inches in the mountains. But remember, there is a high bust potential with this one. We could end up surprised.

SNOW #2

This one might end up being the weirdest one of the bunch, at least in terms of some of the areas it's expected to hit.

This one starts in the northern Rocky Mountains today, where April snow isn't so unusual. Then the snow will move southeasterward Friday across Nebraska, and maybe into northern Kansas and as far south as Kansas City, where snow is odd for this time of year.

Friday night, mixed precipitation could make it as far south as Nashville, Tennessee. Even if things stay as rain down there, a widespread and damaging frost and freeze is likely in the Mid-South Saturday night.

With these repeated snowstorms, and more on the way across the
nation this April, this image probably matches lots of peoples' emotions.

On Saturday, it's possible places like Washington, DC, in the throes of its annual cherry blossom beauty, could get hit by a snowstorm, which would make it among the latest on record there. (It's kind of iffy if Washington will get snow, sleet, rain or a mix.)

But considering how daytime temperatures are normally in the low to mid 60s this time of year in the Capital, the spectre of snow this time of year is bizarre.

This storm will go out to sea too far south to affect Vermont, except to reinforce the chilly air that will already by over us.

SNOW #3

By Sunday, the third snowstorm will be diving southward through North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and into Illinois, areas that were hit by a late snowstorm and record cold last Sunday.  Since this one is further out in the future, details on what it will do are kind of hazy.

But as this last one heads east, it could consolidate into another nor'easter. It has the potential to give us here in Vermont a late season snowstorm. It all depends upon how close to the coast this comes during the middle of next week, and whether temperatures will remain cold enough for snow. Of the three, this one bears the most watching for us in Vermont.

STAYS RECORD COLD

There's been some remarkable cold the past few days, especially in the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest that had snowcover. Lincoln, Illinois, hit by snow Sunday, got down to a remarkable minus 1 Monday morning, by far the coldest April temperature on record there.

Elsewhere, Aberdeen, South Dakota got down to six below (!!) on Wednesday,  also its coldest temperature on record for any day in April. Pierre, South Dakota got down to an even zero, also it's all time coldest April temperature.

Grand Forks, North Dakota has been continuously at or below freezing since March 28, and it's not expected to (barely) rise above freezing again there until next Tuesday. That's 13 consecutive days of subfreezing air during a time of year when daytime readings should be in the mid-40s in that part of the world.

Minneapolis is expected to reach an afternoon high temperature of just 21 degrees Friday, which would make the coldest "high" temperature on record there for the month of April. If it gets down to the expected low of 5 above in Minneapolis Saturday night, that would be the second coldest April reading on record for them.

Then, after nine inches of snow the other day, Minneapolis, as mentioned above, is in line for another possible snowstorm Sunday. This time of year, normal highs are in the low 50s and normal lows are in the lower 30s in Minneapolis. They're being driven nuts by winter in spring in the Twin Cities, that's for sure!

This truly is easily among the most intense stretches of April cold on record in parts of the United States. It's especially remarkable because it's an exception from the general warming trend we've seen in recent decades.


The cold is just bad luck for our neck of the woods, because other parts of the world are experiencing record heat. Parts of the Arctic are 30 degrees or more warmer than average now. Areas of Asia including Iran and Pakistan just experienced record heat. 

STORMY SPRING

As noted, the cold will start to relax, but it will stay stormy for a week or more after that. This raises the risk of tornado outbreaks and flooding in parts of the southern Plains, Midwest and South. It's too soon to pick apart details on these potential storms but they're something to keep an eye on.

There are preliminary, uncertain signs that things might finally start to calm down in the nation during the final week of April.

If You Think This Is Bad, Wait Until Next Friday's Arctic Blast

Blue nation: This morning's National Weather Service
home page map was a study in blue, filled with
vast areas of wind chill and freeze alerts.

I usually don't like to talk much about forecasts more than five days down the road, but this time I do want to put out an alert that the frigid Arctic cold wave we're having looks like it will reach its crescendo next Friday and Saturday in New England.

It looks very grim. Could be one of the most brutally cold days in my lifetime. Considering I'm 55, that's saying something.

Oh, I know, it might not be as bad as current predictionss are indicating now.  Forecasts change. But some indications for next Friday are shivering my timbers, let me tell ya.

First let's get through the latest Arctic blast, which came in last night. It seemed "warm" in Burlington, Vermont for awhile Saturday afternoon.  The temperature peaked at a lovely, balmy 11 degrees above zero in the afternoon, the hottest it's been since Tuesday evening.

That, of course, didn't last long. It was back to the deep freeze last night, and that will continue through New Year's Eve. Looking at the national weather map, the United States is now Blue Nation, and I'm not talking about politics.

At least half of the U.S. is colored in hues of blue on the National Weather Service home page - filed with wind chill warnings and advisories, and in the south, hard freeze warnings.

I haven't seen such a vast cold wave in the United States in quite a few years.

Can I stop right here and indulge in another rant about people on the roads? During this cold snap, we here in Vermont and a lot of other places in the vast cold zone have been getting little bouts of light snow. It's too cold for salt to work.  The snow and ice stays on the highways. The wind does appears to blow some of the snow off the roads, so they're perfect, right?

Um, no. Car tires have been compacting some of this light snow into black ice. The roads don't look too bad, but they're icy. I saw a lot of cars off Interstate 89 Friday evening and a few more Saturday. Motorists are going 75 mph. They don't get it that there's black ice, which is hard to see. Slow down, morons!!    

This cartoon by George Danby in the Bangor (Maine)
Daily News this week pretty much sums things up. 

At the bottom of this post, you'll see some videos from Michigan of people going too fast on the highways during lake effect snow squalls. People gotta learn to slow down. More people are going to be killed because people are too stupid to slow down on ice and low visibility.

Rant over. Moving on. As expected, it's damn cold today, and will be tonight for New Year's Eve festivities. We're still looking at wind chills in the teens and 20s below zero come midnight in Vermont, so 2018 is starting out by giving us the cold shoulder, to put it gently.

It'll stay cold New Year's Day, then we get into a "mild" spell Tuesday and Wednesday, when high temperatures will rise all the way up into the teens to around 20. Break out those swimsuits, baby!

Then we get into the trouble I talked about at the start of this blog post. An ocean storm will get going in the Bahamas and track northward, well off the East Coast. It will intensify rapidly, and become a vast, intense super strong wind machine.

It's still hard to say how far off the coast this monster will track. At this point it looks far enough away to spare the eastern United States from a lot of snow but it still bears watching.

Once this huge storm approaches the waters off New England, it will tend to curl a little bit toward the northwest, while still strengthening. That could cause a blizzard in eastern Maine if it comes close enough, and a little snow in Vermont. And it will probably cause an epic, dangerous storm in the Canadian Maritimes.

But that's not worries me so much about this storm. All of the Northeast, certainly including Vermont, will be in this huge storm's huge wind field. That means by Friday, I expect that north winds could be gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range, maybe more than that in the higher elevations.

Worse, this storm is going to grab a chunk of Arctic air from Canada and bring it down on us. Friday's chunk of Artic air looks like it might be even colder than the icebox we've got over us today .

The combination of wind and extreme cold looks awful. If this comes to fruition, I expect lots of burst and frozen water pipes as the cold winds push the Arctic air through every nook and cranny of our houses and buildings.

Low temperatures Friday and possibly Saturday night across Vermont and surrounding areas look like they could be in the 20 to 35 below range, and that's not including the wind chill.

Having lived in Vermont all my life so far, I think I've only experienced such conditions two or three times before

Of course, I'm still hoping current computer forecasting models are blowing this all out of proportion and it won't be so bad. That's still certainly a possibility. Maybe by Thursday I'll be doing my best Emily Litella impression: ("Never mind!") But it's still something to watch.

If you're looking for good news, it looks like by next Sunday, the deep chill will start to moderate. There will be more Arctic fronts after next Sunday, it looks like, but those outbreaks of cold air don't look anything nearly as bad as what we're experiencing today, and what we're likely to experience next Friday.

Here's those road crash videos. The first is the most dramatic. The couple in the car, which slid off a Michigan highway, narrate as cars and trucks keep smashing into one another. At least three plow into the couple's car. I'm amazed by how calm the two remain. The second video shows more of the same type of thing.

Let's be careful out there!



And here's  tow truck driver's overview of the scene in Michigan: