Bad News For All Of Us, Especially Climate Denialists: 2019 2nd Hottest On Record

The year 2019 was the second hottest on record says NOAA.
On this map, shades of red are warmer than average for 2019,
blue is colder than average.  Central North America
was the only real cold spot. 

It was predictable and expected news earlier this month, but it's still alarming:

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information just came out with their global assessment for the year 2019.

In case you missed it, 2019 was the world's second hottest year on record.

Here's part of a summary from NCEI:

"For 2019, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.71... degrees above the 20th century average. This was the second highest among all years in the 1880-2019 record and just 0.07 (degrees F.) less than the record value set in 2016.

2019 marks the 43rd consecutive year (since 1977) with global land and ocean temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.

The five warmest years have occured since 2015; nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. The year 1998 is the only 20th century year among the 10 warmest on record.

The annual global land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of +0.13F per decade since 1880; however, since 1981, the average rate of increase is more than twice that rate (+0.32F).

For the 21-year span that is considered a reasonable surrogate for pre-industrial conditions (1880-1900), the 2019 global land and ocean temperature waws 2.07F above the average."

I dunno. Do you see a trend here?

Well, a few people don't see this. The year 2019 seemed to be year a lot of the media dubbed as the time people got it. That the world is warming up and it is dangerous. A crisis, really.

However, there's still that lively group that will tell you that the world is not warming up. Or if it is, it's just a temporary, natural cycle. Or, if they do concede warming is happening, it's not a big deal.

The denialists can just drive you crazy if you let them.  Their counterpoint to this latest bit of news on 2019 and climate change and other world warming news is like this:

"Yeah, but South Dakota had one of its coldest years on record in 2019!"  True, but as South Dakota goes, so goes the world? Um.....

If one more idiot tells me that climate change doesn't exist because some Podunk town had a record low temperature, I'm going to scream. You don't want to hear my scream. It's awful.

Still, they persist.

Back in November, felon and one of the most vile, most stupid commentators out there (and that's saying something!) Dinesh D'Souza tweeted this gem:

"Remember nuclear winter? Of course you don't.  That's because it didn't happen. Yet it was all the rage on the Left in the 1980s. A generation from now, no one will recall climate change either, and for the same reason. The apocalypse has become a political racket!"

Can I be Captain Obvious here again?  People feared nuclear winter but it didn't happen because Russia and the United States decided it would be a bad idea to nuke each other into oblivion.   Friggin' idiot!

Social media sure as hell isn't helping. I don't know exactly how large a percentage of the public is in the climate denial camp, but platforms like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube certainly amplify the false voices of this denialism.

I'll offer just one example: On January 16, Time magazine online reported:

"YouTube has been 'actively promoting' videos containing misinformation about climate change, a report released Thursday by campaign group Avaaz claims, despite recent policy changes by the platform intended to drive users away from harmful content and conspiracy theories."

When you go on YouTube, there's an 'Up Next' feature.  You're watching the video you want to watch, which is the first video in the list of videos on the right side of the screen that YouTube's algorithms think you'd want to watch.

According to the Time report:

"'We've found that it's very likely that at least one in five users who search or a term like global warming or climate change could be sent down this type of misinformation rabbit hole,'" says Fadi Quran, a campaigns director at Avaaz, and one of the report's authors. 'Scientists are working so hard to educate people about the existential threat we face and YouTube is allowing bad actors among us the last word on this issue for many people.'"

Previous studies have suggested that the majority of videos related to climate change on YouTube are at odds against what scientists are telling us.

Even with all this, there are islands of optimism , as a piece in  The Guardian points out, 2019 might have been the year that climate denialism might have been defeated. At least partially:

"The global climate strike, Greta Thunberg's meteoric rise to international prominence, as well as several high-profile international conferences and reports - all contributed in putting climate skeptics on the back foot.

"Even Donald Trump, who previously claimed that the climate crisis was a 'hoax' invented by China to hold back American industry has begun to brag  all his administration has done to address it."

Never mind the fact that Trump's bragging, as always, is a fake facade. Trump is rebranding before our eyes, like he always does to suit his needs.  Trump has done pretty much nothing in terms of  climate change at all, and now his position is that climate activitsts and others are just negative people.

Trump notwithstanding, the discussion around climate change is now mostly how to address it, and not whether we should address it. This is a debate we should have had at least a couple decades ago but better late than never, I suppose. I'm glad we've at least reached this point.

That Guardian article/editorial, which is definitely worth reading, summarizes the many different approaches to what we can and should do about climate change.

It boils down to this, according to the Guardian in one of the best basic outlines of where we stand:

"No one seems quite clear what is the ultimate goal of the global fight against the climate crisis. Is it merely to enable constant economic growth in a sustainable way, or is it about imposing limits on humanity's ambitions in pursuit of a more harmonious relationship with nature."

Climate denialist have long said environmentalists' goals are to take freedom and independence and wealth away from you and me.

Will we find sustainable ways to keep something like our current lifestyle going?  Do we need to keep our current lifestyle going? Should we find something more sustainable, but still far from some grim dystopia? How?

I guess it depends on whether some of the great minds of the world find solutions, or at least paths forward, or whether the usual opportunists make things worse.....

This is one hell of a season finale cliff hanger, folks.

Last Year Was A Soggy One For The United States

According to the National Centers For Environmental Information,
the contiguous U.S. had its second wettest year on record. Only
the Pacific Northwest, South Texas and a bit of the Southeast
were dry. 

Figures came in the other day for how the climate fared in the United States in 2019.

Early indications are that the world as a whole had its second warmest year on record in 2019.  We should get more information on that in the next few days.

Meanwhile, the United States only had its 34th warmest out of 125 years of keeping track. It was also the coolest year overall for the nation since 2014, says the National Centers for Environmental Information.  

Nothing extreme, but not totally in line with the global warming trend, either.

That's not to say parts of the United States weren't hot.  And I mean hot, big time.  North Carolina and Georgia had their hottest years on record, and other Southeastern States came close to that, ranking in the top 10.  Alaska also had by far its hottest year on record.

The real news is how wet the nation was in 2019. It was the second wettest year in the Lower 48, with only 1973 being wetter, says NCEI.  Average precipitation across the contiguous United States was 34.78. That's 4.84 inches above average, which doesn't sound like much. But when you consider that some areas will naturally be very wet and others very dry in a typical year, this departure from normal is pretty damn large.

The Northern Plains had an especially miserable year.  It was quite a bit colder than normal in 2019 and a lot wetter than normal.

South Dakota had it the worst. It was the wettest year on record there, and the 12th coldest in 125 years of record keeping.

Four other states - North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan - also had their wettest year on record in 2019, but those states weren't as cold as South Dakota, at least relative to average, notes the NCEI.   North Carolina, Georgia and Alaska had their hottest years on record. Other states in the Southeast were in the Top 10 warmest.

For the record, for the entire state of Vermont, it was the 45th warmest out of 125 years. So yeah, a bit on the warm side, but nothing breathtaking.

Vernont also only had its 47th wettest year on record, again no great shakes. But interestingly, the northern parts of the state were unusually wet, with Burlington having one of its top ten wettest years on record. Southern Vermont was much drier, which explains the lackluster rain year in the Green Mountain State.

The United States had 14 weather-related disasters that each caused at least $1 billion in damage. These included eight severe storm and tornado outbreaks, three inland floods, a hurricane (Dorian), a tropical storm (Imelda) and one wildfire.

The billion dollar events cost a total of $45 billion in damage, just over the long term, inflation adjusted average of $43.9 billion per year.

Billion dollar disasters are getting more frequent and costly. Although part of that is likely due to climate change, another large part of the problem is more people are in the way of storms and other weather events, and many of the properties damaged are more elaborate than those in the past.

I'm actually wondering if we're starting the new decade with a new billion dollar disaster already. The expected tornadoes, severe storms, ice storms and flooding for a huge section of the nation today through Sunday will almost surely come to more than $1 billion.  Part of that is just because of the huge area the storm is covering.

Of course, it remains to be seen what the coming year and decade hold, but I'm sure there will be a warming and stormier trend.

2019 In Vermont: Warm And Quite Wet

April flooding alaong Lake Champlain in Alburg threatened this mobile
home.  Vermont experienced heavy rains through much of 2019,
resulting in two disaster declarations for parts of the state
due to flooding in April and November. 

In the era of climate change, we manage an exception of sorts in 2019:  The year was not among the warmest on record here in Vermont.

It was still warmer than normal, of course.  The mean temperature for the year in Burlington, Vermont was 46.3 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees above the long term average.

A half a degree might not seem like much, but for a period lasting a year, it's a fair amount above average.

Still, this was the first year since 2015 that the yearly average temperature was not among the top ten warmest  on record. You do have to consider, though, that three years in a row, 2016 through 2018 being in the warmest list is unprecedented. That couldn't go on forever.

And, I would remind you again 2019 was warmer than average.  And by the way, eight of the ten warmest years in Burlington have happened since 1998, which echoes global climate trends.

Many climatologists say that climate change is also making our area wetter than it used to be, overall.  Sure, there has been and will be dry years in recent decades, but the overall trend is wetter.

The year that just ended followed that trend. In Burlington, total precipitation for 2019 came to 43.47 inches. That makes 2019 the seventh wettest on record.

While the trend toward wettest isn't as stark as the trend toward warmth in recent years, there is still a noticeable move toward more precipitation in Vermont.  Including 2019, five of the top ten wettest years in Burlington have happened since 1998.

A February 6 ice storm made walking in downtown Burlington,
Vermont a tricky, dangerous exercise. 

The bottom line is, if you think climate change is affecting us here in Vermont, the answer, based on the stats, seems to be yes.

These stats are a better measure of how the footprint of climate change is affecting us than more subjective measures.  Climatologists say that global warming is causing more extreme weather events.

I get the feeling that the weather and climate in Vermont has gotten more extreme than it used to be, but how do you measure that?  Sure, perhaps a storm you experienced recently might have been more intense than you're used to, but is that reality?

In any event, here are the most notable weather events in Vermont during 2019:

January 19-21: An unusually cold, heavy snow.  Burlington had a storm total of 18.6 inches.  During the storm, low level cold air drained south from Quebec, keeping temperatures below zero for the bulk of the storm. It's odd to get that much snow in such cold temperatures. Other sections of Vermont were a little warmer.

Nevertheless, a statewide thaw and heavy rains on January 24 subsequently caused ice jams and local flooding.  Overall, 41.8 inches of snow fell on Burlington during January, making the first month of 2019 the >>>> snowiest on record.

February 5: Burlington reached a daily record high of 53, exceeding the 51 set in 1991. However, freezing rain the next day caused numerous accidents in the Champlain Valley and had some people stranded on Interstate 89 for nearly four hours.

My St. Albans, Vermont driveway awash in heavy early spring snow
on March 23.

March 22-23: Parts of Vermont received a large, late season snowstorm. Burlington got only seven inches of snow, as precipitation there mixed with rain.

However, St. Albans got a foot of heavy, wet snow. The town of Averill in the Northeast Kingdom had four feet of snow on the ground immediately after the storm.  

April 15-16: Significant spring flooding hit Vermont, especially in southern and central parts of the state. A line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain hit the southern half of Vermont. That, combined with snow melt, led to the flooding.

Six counties in southern and eastern Vermont were declared major disaster areas, as there was $2 million in public infrastructure damage. Most of the damage came in the form of road washouts.

That was state highways. Municipalities had it worse. For instance, there was $1.5 million in damage to roads in just the town of Bethel, says WCAX-TV.

May 14: Late season snow hit parts of northern and high elevation parts of Vermont.  Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches, Danville got 3.5 inches, Plainfield 2.5 inches, 2 inches in Marshfield.

June 20: Flash flooding again caused some damage in parts of central and southern Vermont, though this wasn't nearly as bad as the April storm.  Orwell reported 3.25 inches of rain. Severe storms downed trees in Hartford, Rutland, Mendon and Clarendon.

Extensive damage in Sheldon, Vermont following a severe
July 30 thunderstorm. 

July 30: Damaging thunderstorms struck parts of Vermont in the strongest severe weather outbreak of the year.  Winds gusted to 76 mph in North Hero.

A microburst that traveled from the northern Champlain Islands through Franklin County pushed a Highgate mobile home off its foundation and toppled hundreds of trees. A separate severe thunderstorm caused a lot of damage in the New North End of Burlington, Colchester and Milton.  

A second round of storms on July 31 wasn't as severe, but caused a city-wide power outage in St. Albans and street fooding.

July 31: The mean temperature in Burlington for July ws 74.9 degrees, the third hottest on record. Only 2018 and 1921 were hotter.

August 17: A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved across Rutland and Windsor counties, felling trees near Lake St. Catherine, and in West Rutland, Plymouth and Windsor.  (Windsor would be struck bu a tornado four days later. See next entry.

August 21:  A tornado hit the town of Windham, Vermont. This was the first tornado in the state since 2012.  (Vermont averages one  tornado per year, so this ended a tornado drought of sorts in the Green Mountain State). The Windham tornado was an EF-1 with winds of 105 to 110 mph.  Several homes suffered window, roof and siding damage.

October 1: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain hit northern sections of the state. Golf ball sized hail fell on Massena, New York and lightning cut power to the St. Albans area. Flooding and washouts occured in some areas. Westfield picked up 3.25 inches of rain, and Wheelock got 3.16 inches.

A large uprooted willow tree on my St. Albans, Vermont property
following the big storm of October 31-November 1.

October 31-November 1:  The most destructive storm since Irene struck Vermont with heavy flooding and strong, damaging winds.  Parts of the Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers had record high crests, with serious flood damage to homes and buildings.

The entire month had been wet, saturating the soil, and then an additional two to five inches of rain fell on western and northern Vermont. East Berkshire reporte 5.26 inches of rain, with 4.85 inches in Enosburg Falls and 4.8 inches in Fletcher.

Numerous roads and culverts were washed out, and much of Vermont was declared a disaster area for the second time in 2019. High winds caused additional substantial damage to power lines, trees and some homes.

Mid-November: Record cold settled on Vermont and much of the northeastern United States. Burlington dropped to a record 9 degrees on November 13, the coldest for so early in the season. Rutland dropped to 6 degrees. An early season snowstorm just before the cold wave also dumped six to ten inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in northern  Vermont. A second push of record cold air arrived on November 16-17.

December 30: A messy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain fell across the state, most heavily in southern sections of Vermont.  Some trees and power lines came down.  Lightning and thunder were reported in Bennington and Windham counties.

We Need To Talk About Greta Thunberg

Teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg was named
Time Magazine's Person Of The Year, and
some older white men are triggered again. 

Greta Thornberg, the now-famous 16-year-old climate activist, was named, to virtually nobody's surprise, as Time Magazine's person of the year. 

Thornberg dominated headlines for much of 2019. with her activism, which really brought to the fore a youth movement that is holding much older world leaders' feet to the fire on the subject of climate change.

All this seems to have a special talent for triggering white, rich men.

A lot of people expected Thunberg to be named Time's 2019 person, including me. Also predictably, the Time magazine announcement on Wednesday triggered more, um, triggering among mostly older, white guys.

Donald Trump Jr. the president's son tweeted, "Time leaves out the Hong Kong Protesters fighting for their lives and freedoms to push a teen being used as a marketing gimmick."

 Well, yes, there's lots to be admired about with the Hong Kong protesters, since they're pushing for democracy and all. The Hong Kong protesters seem to be more into democracy than Don Jr's father, but I will save that discussion for another day.

Seems Junior, the author a bad book called "Triggered," was himself triggered. Also predictable.

As usual, Junior was nothing compared to his father, the supposed president of the United States.

Today, our petulent president tweeted Thursday, "Greta must work on her Anger Management problem, then go to a good old-fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Greta Chill!"

Of course, Thunberg immediately clapped back at Trump by changing her Twitter profile to read, "A  teenager working on her anger management problem. Currently chilling and watching a good old-fashioned movie with a friend."

This is the second time Thunberg made President Trump look like the hapless Looney Tunes coyote being played by the road runner.

 During a September United Nations speech, Thunberg said, "People are suffering, people are dying, entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales and eternal economic growth."

Our beloved President Trump responded on Twitter (of course!) mockingly:

"She seems like a very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future. So nice to see!"

 Thunberg immediately changed her Twitter bio to: "A very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future."

Yes, I know this is supposed to be a weather and climate blog, but I'm struck how a climate activist like Thunberg can make so  many mostly middled aged and old white men so nervous.

Quartz earlier this year noticed this, too. 

Says Quartz:

"In Australia, Herald Sun columnist Andrew Bolt has called Thunberg "freakishy influential...with many mental disorders.  Sky News commentator Chris Kenny Described her as a "hysterical teenager." who needs to be cared for."

She's also been called a "mentally ill Swedish child," unstable and a "millenarian weirdo" who needs a spanking."  

Greta Thunberg took Trump's mocking words toward her
Thursday by changing her Twitter bio page in a way that
threw Trump's words right back at him. 

All this over some teenager from Sweden who is outspoken about climate change, albeit one who managed to create a global platform for herself.

Conservatives have long railed against climate change activists. Just ask Michael Mann, an atmospheric science professor at Penn State and an outspoken advocate against climate change.

He's used to political and person attacks though he certainly doesn't like it

I suspect Thunberg is a threat to male conservatives because 1. She's a girl. 2. She won't shut up like "good girls" are supposed to do.

Instead, she claps back, as we saw with her Twitter war with Trump today.

Thunberg is also a sympathetic person, a youngster who has made herself into a poster child for how climate change will affect future generations.  It's a "think of the children!" argument, one that skeptics of climate change really don't like.

Conversely, Thunberg is lionized by climate change activists, because of her poster child status.  The following isn't meant as a diss: Every movement, every argument really needs a succinct advertising symbol to get their point across.

I also don't mean to belittle Thunberg at all for being a poster child or symbol.  She created this, and it takes a lot of brain power and talent to pull this off. She also doesn't let the incessant criticism get to her, which is extremely hard, let along a teenager to do.

She has inspired millions of youth to take up activism with the climate change cause. It's usually the youth, and often women, who lead the charge when change is needed. Thunberg understands this, and  has used this understanding to great effect.

As a side note, Thunberg has Asperger's, which maybe doesn't help her interact well with some people. However, she says helps her focus on the task at hand and helps her deflect criticism. Which is probably part of the reason she has accomplished so much at such a young age in the climate change battles.

Some on social media have taken to quoting Shakespeare regarding Thunberg: "Although she be but little, she is fierce."

Fierce is a great word to describe Thunberg. She'll tell it to your face, that's for sure.  At her UN speech back in September, she thundered to world leaders,  "We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth."

It's hard to say whether climate change is as existential a threat as Thunberg makes it out to be, but there's no question it's a biggie.  Over the next decades and centuries, it will cause countless deaths, cost us all fortune upon fortune, promote suffering and wreck the enviroment throughout much of the world if something isn't done.

Given that climate change is such a worldwide threat, and given that politicians and world leaders have largely given the crisis a pass so far, Thunberg has succeeded perhaps more than anyone else on Earth in getting us talking about the issue.

After all, you can't laugh at today's lame attempts by Trump to insult Thunberg without at least mentioning climate change. '

Maybe for that reason alone, Time made a wise choice by declaring Thunberg the 2019 Person of the Year.

As You Know, November Was Brutal Here In Vermont

The weather story of November, 2019 in my St. Albans, Vermont yard.
Tree debris left by the November 1 storm buried in snow, making it
difficult to remove.  This was easily the coldest November since 1996.

In this age of global warming, without thinking, you sort of expect temperatures to be on the warm side, or at least  not too far from normal.

But of course, there's a difference between weather and climate. You might be in a general warming trend, but weather still happens. So do odd weather patterns. And persistent ones. Sometimes the roll of the dice keeps bringing you onto the cold side.  

That was certainly the case here in Vermont in November.

It was easily the coldest November since 1996. In some places in the Green Mountain State, it probably made the Top 10 list of coldest Novembers. Plus, it was snowy in most of the state. November could have easily passed as December.

Let's dive into the stats. The mean temperature for the month was 33.0 degrees in Burlington, just missing the Top 10 list of chilliest Novembers.

Only nine days managed to be warmer than normal.  In an era where daily record highs outnumber daily record lows, we reversed that trend this November. There were record lows on three days, including a reading of 9 degrees on November 13, the coldest for so early in the season.

That's an impressive record, given Burlington's records go way back to the 1880s. (The longer the period of record, the less likely you are to break a record, since you've had tons of chances to be super warm or super cold over the course of more than a century.)

This was also the second November in a row Burlington had a "coldest for so early in the season" record. In  November, 2018, it was 1 below in Burlington, the earliest subzero reading on record.

With 12.5 inches of snow, Burlington missed out on being one of the top 10 snowiest Novembers, but this early winter is certainly off to a snowy start. (The top 10 snowiest Novembers had accumulations ranging from 14.9 to 24 inches).

As of November 30, snowfall is running 7.1 inches above normal for the beginning of the winter season. Of course, anything can happen, as we can normally expect more than 80 inches of snow in a typical winter.

Other places in Vermont were actually colder than Burlington, both in actual temperature and how far it was below normal. Montpelier had a mean November temperature of 28.8 degrees which was 6.6 degrees colder than normal.

St. Johnsbury was also quite frosty, with a mean temperature of 29.8 degrees, or 6.3 degrees below normal. Morrisville and Springfield were both also more than six degrees chillier than normal in November, 2019.

Precipitation was mostly below normal in Vermont, except in the Champlain Valley, where it was wetter than normal. Precipitation was mostly within an inch of where it should have been, except in southeastern Vermont, where it was pretty dry.

In Burlington, the year 2019 has a good shot of cracking the Top 10 list of wettest years, but barely.  As of November 30, there had been 41.88 inches of rain and melted snow so far in 2019. We only need 0.3 inches of precipitation in December to make this year the 10th wettest. That will surely happen. There was already another 0.09 inches of precipitation Sunday, so we're almost there.

This November will also be remembered for the storm that began on Halloween and continued into November 1.  It was probably the most destructive Vermont storm since Irene in 2011.

Parts of Vermont will likely be declared a federal disaster area from this storm, due to the flooding and wind damage it caused.

In my 57 years in Vermont so far, I've been blissfully immune somehow from the disasters and extremes Mother Nature can fling at our state. Sure, I suffered some minor flash flood damage in 2011, and some other minor inconveniences over  the years, but I really got hit with this storm.

By "really hit," I know I'm being dramatic, because me and husband Jeff didn't exactly go through much loss and suffering. Still a favorite tree on our property fell and destroyed one of our vehicles.

Other falling trees ripped away our electrical box, causing damage to electronics inside the house, including the furnace, power cords, and a few appliances.

So yeah, between the storms and the unusual cold, this was not my favorite November. Serves me right for waxing poetic about how this September and October were probably among my favorire months I can remember. No good weather in Vermont goes unpunished, I always say.

The sharp November chill in Vermont and much of the United States was an aberration globally. Most of the world was hot. Final stats aren't in yet, but November, 2019, will probably go down as one of the Top 5 hottest Novembers on record for the Earth as a whole.

Historic Northern Plains Snowstorm? And Big Coastal New England Storm

Weather map in late October, 1991, showing the massive blizzard
in the Midwest and the "Perfect Storm" off the New England coast.

The weather maps at the end of October, 1991 were among the most extreme in history.

In the middle of the nation, a historic, intense blizzard was under way, with three feet of snow in Duluth, Minnesota and 45 inches in Superior, Minnesota.

The storm was accompanied by very strong winds, making this among the worst blizzards on record for any season. Record, subzero cold followed the storm.

Meanwhile, in coastal New England, the famous "Perfect Storm" was raging. That's the storm made famous by the Sebastian Junger book and subsequent film.  It cause immense coastal damage from southeastern Canada, through coastal New England down into the Middle Atlantic States.

The two storms combined are one of the most memorable weather events in United States history.

History is about to repeat itself in a miniature fashion.  My intent is not to scare anyone, because what's coming up later this week is by no means as extreme and dangerous as the 1991 event. But still, I'm struck by how similar the weather maps of 1991 are to the expected weather maps of later this week.

Once again, a big snowstorm is expected to hit the northern Plains. And, a rather powerful coastal storm has the potential to cause some damage in coastal New England.  I mentioned the other day this might happen, and it appears to be coming to fruition.

NORTHERN PLAINS

While not as bad as 1991, the expected storms will be serious.  The exact location of the heaviest snow in the upper Midwest is yet to be determined, but toward the end of the week, parts of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota could see a foot or more of snow. Perhaps two feet. And, like in 1991, there will be strong winds.

The expected weather map for this coming Friday is eerily
similar to October, 1991.  Though not as bad as 1991,
another big snowstorm in the northern Plains and coastal
wind and waves will be a problem in the Northeast. 

Given how early in the season this snow is, there's going to be a lot of livestock losses and crop losses, since not everything is harvested yet.

Winter storm watches and warnings are already in effect in a large area through Montana, Wyoming, much of the Dakotas and northwestern Nebraska. Snow could fall as far south as Kansas.

The temperature in several cities will fall dramatically. It's forecast to be sunny and 75 degrees in Rapid City, South Dakota today, and by tomorrow night it will be in the mid-20s with blizzard like conditions.

The high temperature in Denver Tuesday is forecast to be close to 80. The high temperature there Wednesday will barely crack the freezing mark.

NEW ENGLAND 

Like the Midwest snowstorm, the exact track and position of upcoming storm off the East Coast is still full of question marks. The closer it comes to the coast, the worst things will be.

Coastal erosion and minor splashover flooding is almost guaranteed. But if the storm were to come closer than expected, the coastal flooding would be worse. Gales and heavy rain would sweep southern New England.

Again, this won't come close to being a repeat of the Perfect Storm, but it is something to take seriouis.

This storm probably won't affect Vermont much, maybe throwing some clouds our way Wednesday night and Thursday.  At this point, any rain from this would stay in southern and eastern Vermont.