Flooding From Storm "Melissa" Is Worrying Sign Of Future Trouble

Flooding in Annapolis, Maryland on Saturday due
to offshore Tropical Storm Melissa and sea level
rise. Photo by Elly Tierney via the Baltimore Sun

A storm that turned into Subtropical Storm Melissa and then Tropical Storm Melissa has been spinning off the East Coast of the United States for the past week.

During this time, the strong winds from the storm have been pushing water into the shore, causing some coastal flooding from Maine to Florida.

The flooding wasn't super destructive, as floods go, but it was in the way, and caused damage, and was a general nuisance.

This is another ominous example of the rising number of so-called "nuisance" floods along the coast, brought on in large part by yes, climate change.

One disconcerting thing about this Melissa thing is that this wasn't exactly "Storm of the Century" spinning out there. It was powerful, but nothing that out of the ordinary.

True, it was there for an unusually long time, which meant the storm had a long chance to keep piling water up against the East Coast.

Also true was a high pressure system to the north of Melissa - the one that brought most of us here in Vermont some spectacular fall weather - also helped steer water and waves against the coast.

So those were contributing factors. But really. A strong but not all that unusual storm causing such flooding bodes poorly for the future. Especially since astronomical tides this week were pretty low. If there had been a full or new moon during Melissa, there would have been even bigger trouble.

This flooding wasn't just making for narrow beaches and wet ground underfoot. Some people had to be rescued from homes in flood prone coastal Sea Bright, New Jersey, NBC Philadelphia reported.

By Saturday, as Melissa was finally getting ready to depart, the moon was much closer to full, so that, in combination of the storm, sent ocean water into downtown Annapolis, Maryland, says the Baltimore Sun.

The Charlotte Observer says that on Cape Hatteras, waves trapped cars on Route 12, which had to be closed, and caused flooding in Avon, Buxton and other towns on Cape Hatteras.

Splashover and some flooding was reported in coastal New England, too.

All this is going to get worse in the future as sea levels continue to rise. Already, in places like Miami, when astronomical tides are high, there is some flooding even when there is no storm anywhere near Florida.

Along parts of the East Coast, this is double trouble because not only is the sea level rising, but land is sinking due to natural processes.

The East Coast, of course, has always had coastal flooding, battering waves and erosion from storms. Those nor'easters and hurricanes will always keep happening. But as time goes by and sea levels keep going up, those nor'easters and other storms will have more and more power to cause worse and worse coastal flooding because the ocean is higher to begin with, even before the storm.

The destruction will be especially bad when we get the inevitable super storm, like the extreme New England hurricanes of 1815 and 1938;  the Ash Wednesday super nor'easter of 1962 or the Perfect Storm from 1991.

As lovely as large swaths of the East Coast can be, I'm certainly not going to invest in oceanfront property.  I have to wonder about insurance, the economy and survival of coastal communities will be like in coming decades.

Dangerously Stormy March Lion Roars In After Record February Heat

Areas in orange can expect a foot of snow out of the upcoming
storm, but that's not the biggest worry with this.
Severe coastal flooding is likely in New England
and the Mid-Atlantic states, and high winds will
be a problem throughout the Northeast.

The Northeast is bracing for what really does promise to be a destructive storm that will bring a huge area of coastal flooding, high winds, flooding and very heavy snows in some inland areas.

It's only the first of March, and 2018 is already turning out to be a wild, wild weather year. And this storm will make it wilder.

This slow moving monster will cause widespread damage, I'm afraid.

It still looks like Vermont will be on the edge of the storm, but questions are still there as to how interesting things will get in the Green Mountain State.

Record warmth yesterday closed out one of the hottest Februaries on record, by the way. I'll get to that after more storm discussion.

As noted, large areas of the Northeast will received damaging winds. High wind warnings and watches extend from New England to North Carolina, so you know that a lot of people are going to lose power.

But the biggest problems are going to be along the coast, especially from New Jersey to southeastern New England.  This will be a powerful, slow moving storm, so destructive storm surges and battering waves will go through at least three high tide cycles Friday and Saturday.

You might remember the storm in early January that caused such a damaging storm surge in parts of New England. That was only one high tide cycle. This time, the storm surges look like they will at be at least as bad as the one in January. But it will happen three times, not once.

Combine hurricane force wind gusts, repeated storm surges and battering waves, and you can see how destructive this will be along the southern New England coast. The long duration storm will erode beaches and sand dunes, leaving homes and other structures that were thought protected vulnerable.

Inland flooding is also a concern. The developing storm has already triggered widespread flash flood warnings in much of Arkansas and parts of Mississippi and Tennessee.  Flood watches are now in effect in parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England.

This is a tricky storm as far as snowfall is concerned. Where it does snow, it could come down incredibly heavily. In some places, snow could come down Friday at a rate of two inches per hour, and some high elevation locations could clock in with two feet of new snow.

It will be a wet snow in most places that do get it. Combined with the strong winds, that's a recipe for huge power failures. The places most under the gun are the Catskills, western and central New York, maybe the Poconos in Pennsylvania, the Berkshires in Massachusetts and possibly the far southern Green Mountains of Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont.......

VERMONT EFFECTS

Given the size and force of the storm, and given the fact Vermont will be on the edge of this monster, there's a high chance of a forecast bust.  Count on things not exactly working out as forecast, but at least we have an idea of what will happen.

Right now, the biggest effects still look to be in southern Vermont. Precipitation will be heaviest there, and winds will be strongest - gusting to 50 mph or even a little more on Friday.

Temperatures will be marginal for rain versus snow, with the highest chance for snow in the upper elevations, of course.

At the moment, the National Weather Service is forecasting snow to spread south to north overnight tonight across Vermont.  It seems as if enough warm air will wrap into the storm to change the snow to a cold rain, especially across lower elevations on Friday.

That's not guaranteed, so we'll have to wait and see if that actually happens.  In Vermont's southern two counties, a winter storm watch is up for four to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, combined with gusty winds and possible power failures.

As I said, precipitation is still expected to be relatively light in northern Vermont. But it will be a nasty day with temperatures in the 30s with gusty east winds. It's still possible that heavier precipitation than expected will work its way even into northern Vermont. A slight nudge to the north in the storm track could make things more interesting than forecasters think at the moment.

There will almost certainly be surprises with some areas getting more or less snow than expected, some areas getting more or less rain than expected, and some areas getting more or less wind than expected. So, any forecast you hear will be relatively accurate, but not perfect.

RECORD HEAT

Last day of February in northern Vermont yesterday and
I was already out getting spring projects started.
Record warmth provided the opportunity. 

As we were anticipating the storm, yesterday afternoon, at my house in Vermont just 12 miles south of the Canadian border, I was outdoors in shorts and a t-shirt, beginning my spring projects and garden cleanups. In February!

It was an unexpectedly warm, record toasty day, for sure.

Burlington had a record high of 59 degrees Wednesday, breaking the record of 55 set in 1903. St. Johnsbury had a record high of 56 degrees and Montpelier set a record of 55 degrees, breaking the old record by six degrees.

February, 2018 turned out to be the second warmest February on record in Burlington, with a mean temperature of 30.6 degrees. The previous holder of the second warmest February was last year. (The hottest February was in 1981)

We've been on a remarkably hot streak of Februaries in Vermont. Four of the top 10 warmest Februaries in Burlington have occured in the past six years.  Fourteen of the daily record highs in February - half of them - have happened since 2001. (Burlington's records go back to the 1880s)

We ended up with another warmer than normal meteorological winter, too. (It goes from December 1 through February 28) Despite a frigid start in December and early January, Burlington's meteorological winter averaged out at 24.3 degrees. That's 2.3 degrees warmer than normal.

Challenging Weather Winter For New Englanders, And Forecasters

Coastal flooding in Highlands, New Jersey this morning. 

As we well know, the weather in New England has been all over the place this winter, with plenty of extremes, and quite a number of surprises. Most of the surprises have been bad.

Examples abound: The storm surge flooding in Massachusetts with the January 4 nor'easter was much more destructive than anticipated. 

The January thaw on the 12th was much warmer and much wetter than many forecasters anticipated. The result was ice jams and flooding that was worse than originally predicted region wide.

Today turned out to be another day of surprises for New England. Not so much here in Vermont: The cloudy, chilly weather that had been forecast for today by the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other Vermont meteorologists is verifying pretty much perfectly.

Not so in southern and eastern New England. Meteorologists knew an offshore storm would brush that region with some light to even locally moderate snow today. Once again, we have an overperforming storm.

As of 10 a.m., it was still snowing in parts of that region, and there are already several reports of six to eight inches of new snow in parts of Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts and eastern Connecticut.

It's pretty gusty out there, too, with winds of up to 45 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands.

This is by no means a blockbuster snowstorm by New England standards, but it did surprise morning commuters with more snow than was in the forecast.

Worse, coastal flooding all along the coast from New Jersey north is a little worse than anticipated. We're nearing a full supermoon again, so astronomical tides are even higher than they normally would be. The not-so-impressive storm off the coast was forecast to make the tides a little worse, so some coastal flooding had been anticipated well in advance.

Though by  no means records, some of the coastal flooding is definitely worse than anticpated this morning.

Shoreline flooding has been reported in several communites in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. Social media videos show flooding in Scituate, Mass., along Morrissey Boulevard in Boston, Hampton, New Hampshire and Ogunquit, Maine.

This isn't good. The flooding isn't super destructive, but let's face it. It's an astronomical tide that shouldn't be a big deal. The storm off the coast isn't that big at all. There should be basically no coastal problems.

Yet, we've got this. Sea level rise caused largely by climate change does seem to be making life along the New England coast, along with many other areas, more perilous.

Big Ocean Waves Shock And Awe The Pacific Northwest; Storminess Spreading Across U.S.

Crashing coastal waves in Oregon sent this big log
through a motel window. At least one person died
when he got too close to the big waves this past week. 

I've always wanted to take a vacation to the coastline in the Pacific Northwest during the winter.

People say I'm crazy for saying that. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a dark, rainy, stormy place for most of the winter.

Which is why I'd like to go there this time of year.  The immense waves from giant Pacific Storms that crash onto the rocks and sea stacks are a sight to behold. And, I imagine, a photographer's dream.

This week, the Pacific Northwest got a little more than they bargained for, as the waves were even more intense than they usually are. The crashing waves yesterday were bigger than locals have seen in many years.

While fascinated to watch, you've got to be careful, as these waves can get even bigger than you'd imagine. Tragically, a man was swept out to sea in Oregon by a wave yesterday and is presumed dead.

Elsewhere along coast, the high tides and waves were enough to flood shoreline roads and buildings. A seafood restaurant and a couple of motels in Lincoln City, Oregon had windows blown out and other damage, says OregonLive.com Waves also crashed into the ground floor of a condominium, sending a woman flying across a room.

Other people had close calls, too. A woman was injured when she was knocked over by a wave a Lincoln City, Beach. She was taken to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. Another man and his dog were swept off a beach by a sneaker wave but the man and his dog were able to claw their way back onto shore.

In Cannon Beach,Oregon a popular go to place in winter storms for weather and photography enthusiasts like me, sea water pushed into town.

There's video of this at the bottom of this post. Also some of the storminess from the Pacific Northwest is consolidating into a storm that will cause problems in much of the United States. And it will affect us here in Vermont, too.

My in-laws in Yankton, South Dakota yesterday enjoyed a mid-winter heat wave that set temperatures all the way up to 61 degrees as warm air bathed the central Plains. I hope they enjoyed it, because Yankton and a large section of the Plains is now in the path of a new winter storm.

Winter storm warnings as of this morning extended through the central Rockies into most of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota. Winter storm watches extended from South Dakota into Minneasota. Looks like there will be quite a bit of snow and wind in this band Sunday and Monday.

Since this storm will go by to the west of New England, we Vermonters are in for another spell of mixed precipitation and rain. It'll start as snow and a mix Monday night. It looks at this point like it'll be mostly rain Tuesday, before colder air comes in at night to create some snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

It won't be nearly as warm, and it won't rain nearly as hard as it did a week ago Friday, when we had flooding and ice jams. This storm probably won't cause new problems in that regard, but ice jams remain in Vermont and other sections of the Northeast.

The thawing and rain could aggravate those situations and maybe cause new flooding or ice movements, so keep an eye on that one, will ya?

Now the Pacific Northwest videos

Here's an aerial view of the tides coming up onto a road in Ocean Park, Washington, forcing motorists to scramble to get out of the way:

1 p.m. Nor'easter Update: Major Massachusetts Coastal Flood Disaster Now Unfolding

Storm chaser Simon Brewer captured this chaotic cene of brutal
crashing waves, storm surge flooding and blizzard conditions
today in Scituate, Massachuaetts. (Click photo to make
it bigger and easier to see.)

It's even worse than expected in coastal Massachusetts. It looks to me like a severe disaster is unfolding.  

Storm surges and tides with the big nor'easter are even worse than dire earlier forecasts. There is some pretty major flooding in many coastal towns, including Boston, Scitutate, Duxbury, Quincy, Marshfield, Nantucket and Plymouth.

The tide in Boston looks like it will be even higher than that during the epic Blizzard of 1978. Social media is showing cars inundated on Winthrop, Massachusetts streets, waves slamming into homes in Scituate. It looks like there was at least two feet of water on Easy Street in Nantucket.

NECN reports numerous cars stuck in the flooding in Quincy, and rescue operations are under way. Also in Quincy, water is entering homes.

The National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts says this is some of the worst coastal flooding in Boston area history. Water in Chatham, on Cape Cod, cut through a barrier island and water is now up to condominium doors, at last report.

As you can gather by all these tidbits, this is a breaking story and I'll have more info as reports come in later this afternoon.

From Twitter. @charlesorloff captured this storm surge
flooding in Barnstable, Massachusetts today.

Elsewhere, bands of heavy snow set up in various places so far today, including the Jersey Shore, New York City and eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. White out and blizzard conditions were reported there, as you might expect.

Here in Vermont, it's more mellow, which is of course a good thing. Light to at times moderate snow is falling across the state.

The wind is just beginning to pick up, and will get much worse as we go through the afternoon and evening. Blowing and drifting and bad visibility will become a major issue.

Parts of eastern Vermont are now under a wind advisory, with gusts to 50 mph expected tonight. Elsewhere in Vermont, gusts will top 40 mph in a lot of places.

The new snow will be difficult to measure. It's also difficult to forecast. On the one hand, very dry Arctic air is coming in from the northwest, which would tend evaporate incoming snow. On the other hand, bands of heavier snow are pivoting westward from the storm toward Vermont. Which wil win?

The Vermont forecast still seems pretty accurate in my opinion with three or four inches west and up to ten inches east and south.

Huge Nor'easter Trashing The East Coast Now, As Expected

Awesome color-added satellite shot of the nor'easter
plowing into New England this morning. 

The remarkable, uber strong nor'easter is behaving just as forecast today, even though that behavior is really, really bad.  

The immediate coastline from South Carolina north has been pummeled. It was something to see video of the palm trees along Virginia Beach being pummeled by very strong winds, as if in a tropical storm or hurricane. But instead of heavy rain, it was a blizzard.

(To avoid confusion, this storm is NOT a hurricane, and has NOTHING to do with hurricanes. Hurricanes and nor'easters are two COMPLETELY different types of storms. I've heard this storm referred to as a "winter hurricane" and that is totally a wrong description.)

As of 9 a.m. the storm was engulfing New England, with the worst yet to come. Thunder snow was ongoing near southern Connecticut and Long Island at that hour. Blizzard conditions with snowfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour and gusts of 55 mph were reported in this area. Snow emergencies are up from Virginia to Maine.

This truly is a bomb storm. That reference is  partly media hype of course, but it's a thing. It's now confusing to many people, since it's been used this week both correctly and incorrectly in the media, so I'll have an explanation as to what a bomb storm further down in this update

Here in Vermont, it was snowing in the southern half of the state as of 9 a.m. and the snow was steadily working north. If you live in northern Vermont, it's best to get your stuff done out on the roads now, if at all possible. Things definitely go downhill this afternoon.

As I noted yesterday, this won't be a tremendously deep snowfall for Vermont - three to five inches west to as much as a foot to the east, especially in the Northeast Kingdom and the high elevations of far southern Vermont.

But, again, as we said yesterday, it's the wind and especially the intense oncoming cold that it going to get you. The expected 40 mph gusts will certainly blow a lot of snow around.

If  you've got time this morning, get your car's gas tank full, and put stuff like extra blankets and nonperishable snacks in the vehicle, just in case. The roads will stay treacherous into Saturday. First, even though this will be a dry, powdery snow, car and truck tires will compact some of it into black ice.

Blowing and drifting snow will hinder visibility and put snow back onto roads even after the snow stops falling from the sky Friday night and Saturday. Plus, extreme cold can easily cause vehicle break downs. If you get stranded for a few hours or even minutes, the emergency pack in your car can really help. Better safe than sorry. If possible, hunker down at home and read that really good book you got for Christmas.

This snowfall prediction map is about as good as any.
Areas in pink can expect at least six inches of snow.
Greenish areas are up for more than a foot. 

The temperature and wind forecast for the storm and post-storm hasn't changed, either. The frigid conditions are the real story with this storm and Arctic outbreak. Expect dangerous wind chills starting tonight and going through Saturday night. Temperatures will fall below zero late tonight or early Friday and stay there until Sunday afternoon.

Wind chills as low as the 40s below can be expected later Friday through Friday night and well into Saturday. Actually temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s below in Vermont early Sunday morning.

High temperatures Saturday might not get any warmer than minus 10. If the temperature stays at 9 below or colder in Burlington Saturday, that'll be the coldest day since 1981. This is quite the nasty cold spell. It's among the worst I've seen in the past two or three decades.

The worst drama with this storm will come early this afternoon along coastal New England with high tide arrives. Forecasters are still expecting a storm surge that could exceed three feet above normal high tide in parts of southeastern Massachusetts.

Huge waves amid gusts as high as 70 mph and chunks of ice from the previous week's cold will become battering rams against shoreline structures. The storm surge will also probably be slow to recede, and could end up freezing in place.

As I said yesterday, more active weather is coming next week, but I'll get into that more after this storm blows by.

Now, let's get into bombs, shall we?

BOMBING STORMS

One of the top trending hashtags on Twitter since yesterday has been #BombCyclone in reference to the big nor'easter we're getting.

First of all, the cyclone part of that hashtag can be a big confusing to people. After all, cyclones are hurricanes near India. However, meteorologists often refer to any sizable storm as a cyclone. In this case, as I said earlier, this nor'easter has nothing to do with hurricanes. It's not tropical, it's not warm core. It does not depend on warm water to form.

This nor'easter formed because there was a lot of energy in the atmosphere, and there was a major clash between very warm, wet air over the Atlantic Ocean, and Arctic air plunging down from Canada.

But this storm IS a bomb.  But that's not a new term. Meteorologists coined the term a bombing storm around 1980 to a storm that intensifies very fast - explosively.

Storms are areas of low atmospheric pressure. Air pressure in storms is lower than the atmosphere surrounding them. The lowest pressure in a storm is right in the middle of it.

In general, the lower the pressure in a storm, the stronger the storm is. If the pressure in the middle of the storm is getting even lower, the storm is strengthening. If the pressure in the middle of the storm is rising, it's weakening.

Meteorologists use a unit of measure called the millibar to measure the pressure in storms. (Or anywhere in the Earth's atmosphere for that matter.)  If a storm like this nor'easter's central pressure drops by 24 millibars within 24 hours, it's a bomb cyclone.  

This storm more than qualifies. Its central pressure dropped by 48 millibars between yesterday morning and this morning, which is double what was needed to be considered a bomb.  And the storm is still bombing away as it's still strengthing rapidly.

By the way, bomb storms are actually quite common. They happen at least several times of year  along or off the east coasts of the United States and Canada.  Several more occur elsewhere every winter in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The reason why you're hearing so many bomb references today is because this storm is affecting a lot of people. And this one's even bombier, to coin a word, than many other bomb storms, since it's strengthening so fast.

Many storm "bombs' go off well offshore, and these storms don't really affect anybody. They're too far away. So these distant bombs understandably get no media attention.

So, stay wary of this bomb, New Englanders, it's a nasty one. We'll provide more updates as news comes in.

Nightmare Storm Coming To New England Coast, Vermont Gets Ugly, Too

From Twitter: @whoizmark enjoys the snow falling this
morning in Tallahassee, Florida of all places. 

The media is in a weather frenzy now, and with good reason. Most of the news sites are leading with what they're all calling a bomb storm that is going to sock the East Coast.

I've been talking about this storm for days, and it's becoming a reality. It's still going to stay offshore, but will come close enough to the East Coast from Florida to Maine to really raise some havoc.

They're calling it a bomb storm because it will undergo what us weather geeks call bombogenesis. It's going to intensify and escalate super fast, like a bomb going off. I'll go over the impacts south to north below. Note to my Vermont readers that there is a section below on what forecasters expect out of this for the Green Mountain State.

SOUTHERN NIGHTMARE

Since the storm is heading to the north and northeast, first stop is Florida, where mixed precipitation is falling in the northern part of that state, and winter storm warnings are still flying there. There are lots of videos now flying around the internet of snow falling in Tallahassee, Florida.

Tbe expected path of this storm is well off the coast, which
normally would mean this would be no big deal. But the storm
is so strong and so huge in area that it is and will cause
lots of big probems from Florida to New England and on
into southeastern Canada.

Coastal Georgia is likely to get hit hard. The Weather Channel said the snowiest day in Savannah, Georgia history had 3.6 inches of snow. They're forecasting up to six inches of snow for Savannah, though the National Weather Service says it will be mainly freezing rain there. Either way, horrible.

There might be as much as a quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation in northern Florida and southern Georgia. That much ice is enough to cause real problems here in northern New England. Imagine that part of the country!

And they don't have ice removal trucks and salt down there. They're going to have to wait for a warm up in a few days for the ice to melt.

For the record at 9 a.m. this morning, normally mild Savannah was reporting a temperature of 28 degrees with freezing rain. Sidewalks and streets in Tallahassee were iced over this morning. It even snowed 30 miles offshore of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico last night, which is really something almost unprecedented. Parts of Interstate 10 are closed due to ice. Interstate 10 is the furthest south east to west Interstate in the U.S.

Because the storm is staying offshore, the severe effects of this storm will hug the coast from Georgia on up to the Mid-Atlantic states. In the south, freezing rain will ice things up, and the ice won't go away anytime soon as the cold air surges in behind the storm today and tomorrow.

Along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and along Interstate 95, it'll be a mess of powdery, badly wind driven snow. Travel and commutes will be a nightmare. Closest to the coast, around the Norfolk and Virginia Beach, a blizzard warning is up for winds of 50 mph and whiteout conditions tomorrow. They're warning folks in that area that travel will be impossible, and to be prepared for power failures amid cold and falling temperatures.

Further north into New Jersey and the New York City metro area, forecasters are pulling out their hair trying to determine how much snow will fall on this heavily populated area. If the storm makes a slight jog to the west, they get a lot more than forecast. A slight jog to the east puts them pretty much out of the snow zone.

All this time, the storm will be bombing out and roaring toward New England.

NEW ENGLAND DISASTER?

Normally, when a nor'easter stays as far off the coast as this one will, the effects are only moderate along the New England coast. Generally, this path for a storm would cause some minor coastal flooding, a few power outages from wind and maybe a half foot of snow.

But this storm is so vast and so strong, the New England coast is in for a real pummeling. Here's something to give you an idea how huge the storm's circulation is: The eastern extent of its circulation will be in the central Atlantic, halfway to Europe. The very western edge of its circulation will be somewhere around Iowa. Yeah, that bad.

This forecast map depicts the worst case scenario
for this storm, bringing it very close to the New
England coast. However, this is the NAM computer
model, which is rather unreliable. Most forecasts
take the storm further off the coast than this. 

Plus, the expected track of the storm keeps getting nudged a bit westward closer to New England. Which would increase the impacts of this storm on the region. All this means that in this case, coastal New England is in big trouble.

 There is a blizzard warning for eastern Massachusetts, the immediate coastline of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine, and in Downeast Maine.

The storm is, again, far enough off the coast so the actual snowfall totals won't break any records. Areas near and to the south and east of Boston could easily get a foot or more, but they've seen that before.

But the real story is going to be the wind and the coastal flooding. In some areas on an near Cape Cod the snow will become wet and heavy, and maybe even change to rain for a time. Combine this with winds of up to 70 mph, and you have a recipe for widespread power outages.

Then consider the frigid air that will surge in behind the storm. Imagine having no power with daytime highs of near 10 and lows of near five below, as is expected Friday and Saturday in southeastern Massachusetts.

The real damage from this storm looks like it will be coastal flooding. East and north facing coasts, especially south of Boston, are most vulnerable to this thing. First of all, we're starting with astronomical tides that are above normal on Thursday, with or without a storm.

Then factor in a storm surge of two to three feet. Then consider the waves generated by a long fetch of gales over the Atlantic. You'll have some terrible, battering waves. Also, a lot of ice has formed along the coast with this recent cold wave. Chunks of ice will become additional battering rams during the storm.

The Boston area National Weather Service is expecting structural damage, especially in and near Plymouth, out on the Cape near Dennis, and maybe around Scituate.

At least this is a fairly quick mover, so it won't linger and cause additional damage like the Perfect Storm of 1991 and the Great Blizzard of 1978. Still, this one is very dangerous for the coast.

One other note of caution: One forecast model, called the NAM, brings the storm much closer to New England on Thursday than the other models. If the NAM bears out, the conditions will be much worse than even I've described above. However, the NAM has been a pretty unreliable model, so most forecasters are dismissing that. At least for now.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, this storm won't be a disaster, but it will be awful and potentially dangerous. Snow will break out amid increasing north winds on Thursday. Since the storm is moving more westward than forecasters thought a few days ago, we'll get a bit more snow than earlier forecasts indicated.

Winter storm watches have been extended westward to the New Hampshire, Vermont border, while the entire state of Vermont is under a winter weather advisory. Vermont will probably get somewhere in the neighborhood of three to eight inches of snow with this, as forecasts now stand.

There's a decent chance there might be a sharp gradient in snow totals in Vermont from east to west, with eight inches or even more near the Connecticut River Valley and perhaps as little as one or two inches near Lake Champlain. That's an uncertain forecast, because precisely where the heaviest snow will fall is anyone's guess at this point.

Wherever the heaviest snow falls, we're not getting all that much by Vermont standards, but the winds will really pick up Thursday afternoon and night, and on Friday. The snow is going to be very light and fluffy, so it will blow around A LOT. There will be whiteouts on the highways at times, and the snow will very quickly drift, which means it'll be hard to keep it off the roads for more than say, five minutes.

As advertised, the temperatures will really take a plunge as well, going below zero sometimes early Friday and staying there until Sunday afternoon.

Wind chills will be ridiculous and downright dangerous, as winds could easily gust to 40 mph or more, especially Thursday night and part of Friday. There could be scattered power failures due to the wind, which is dangerous in such cold conditions. But the good news is I don't think we'll have long lasting or widespread power failures here in Vermont.

It will get insanely cold at night, with widespread teens to near 20 below zero, plus gusty winds Friday night and early Saturday. Late Saturday night and around dawn on Sunday, the winds will be lighter, but temperatures will be in the 20s below zero regionwide, with numerous 30s below popping up in many northern valleys.

This isn't going to be a picnic for our friends in Canada, either. Enviroment Canada is warning people in Nova Scotia and surrounding provinces of damaging storm surges, near hurricane force winds and very heavy snow.

LOOKING AHEAD

After this storm goes by, we'll get the cold, but the Arctic chill will begin to come to an abrupt end starting Sunday afternoon. By Tuesday, temperatures in some areas of New England, including Vermont, could get above freezing. That, of course raises the spectre of possible mixed precipitation and rain, which would create its own new mess. Stay tuned on that one.

Monday Nor'easter Update: Storm To Be Even More Intense Than First Thought

Expect lots of scenes like this-or worse- in Vermont
and the rest of the Northeast as a big nor'easter
comes in Tuesday and Wednesday.

Overall, computer models overnight have shifted the expected track of the giant nor'easter westward, closer to the coastline, and depict it as a little more intense than yesterday's forecast.

This still means a big, BIG impact across the entire Northeast. Some coastal areas will probably get a period of rain and/or mixed precipitation, and the chances for heavier snow inland have increased.

As I always do, I'll continue on with an overview and then get specific about Vermont for my Green Mountain State readers.

Winter storm warnings are now up for a huge area of the Northeast from northern Virginia to Maine. A blizzard warning has been hoisted for the New York City metro area, parts of  Long Island, southern Connecticut and New Jersey for late tonight through most of Tuesday.

This is setting up to be a terribly disruptive storm, the wildest one of the entire winter for the Northeast. A widespread area from northern Virginia to Maine and west to the eastern Great Lakes can expect a foot or more of snow out of this thing.

One example: New York's Central Park could get 20 inches of snow out this storm. New York's biggest March snowstorm on record was the great blizzard of 1888, when 21 inches fell.

So yes, it's intense, so it's going to be a windy storm. Hence the blizzard warning in New York (and the blizzard watch in eastern New England.)

Those of you outside the blizzard watches and warnings will still have to contend with a lot of blowing and drifting snow and near white-out conditions Tuesday (Except in northern New England and northern New York, where the most intense snows will hit later Tuesday and the winds will mostly wait until Tuesday night and Wednesday to really crank.

As noted, with the slight westward shift on the expected track of the storm, coastal areas could see some mixed or rain for awhile Tuesday.

Winds will also be most intense along the coast. Any snow that falls there will be wetter than the stuff that flies a bit inland, so the combination will probably lead to widespread power failures.

The nor'easter will come with a storm surge and battering waves, too, so coastal flood warnings and advisories are up from Delaware to Massachusetts.

The caveat is that there will be more adjustments to the expected path of the nor'easter. As I said, the computer models shifted the path a little westward. They might shift it a little eastward again today, who knows?

But the bottom line is this is going to be a whopper or a  storm. Stock up on your food and gas  today before the storm hits. I'm sure many employers, if they're responsible, will tell their workers to stay home tomorrow across the entire Northeast, as that will be the safest thing to do

Don't drive, but if you absolutely must, which is crazy, stock your car now with extra blankets and nonperishable food and water and such, in case you get stuck. And make sure the gas tank is full.

The storm will taper off Wednesday the more south you go, but continue on in much of New England.

No matter what, don't literally kill yourself shoveling snow. Take your time, and if you're honest with yourself and decide you're not up to it, leave it. The snow will melt eventually. Or you can get pull some neighborhood teenager away from his or her smart phone long enough to do the shoveling. They need the exercise.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The storm is heading roughly from south to north, so we will be getting into the storm here in the Green Mountain State a little later than places like Philadelphia, New York and southern New England.

The latest thinking on snow accumulations in and
around Vermont from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington. Click on the map to make
it bigger and easier to read. 

You'll have plenty of time today to prepare, like get groceries and stuff like that because the weather will be cold, but benign. Just that increasing high, thin cloud cover you always get the day before a big snow.

Snow will arrive in southern Vermont in time for the Tuesday morning commute and spread across northern Vermont to the Canadian border by mid to late morning.    

The snow will come down heavily at times Tuesday afternoon and night, and on into Wednesday.

Plan on a terrible drive home Tuesday afternoon and an even worse one to work Wednesday morning if you're silly enough to go.

It's going to be a fairly slow moving storm, so at least some snow will conitnue to fall into Wednesday night. The National Weather Service in South Burlington expects most of Vermont to get at least a foot of snow out of this, with perhaps, just perhaps a bit less than that in the Champlain Valley.

Some favored locations, especially in the mountains, could end up with two feet of fresh powder.

As noted above, this will be a very windy storm. We probably won't quite reach blizzard criteria here in Vermont, but it'll be close enough. The snow will be powdery, and winds gusting over 30 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday will lead to whiteouts, which as you know is very scary out on the roads.

Expect some very deep snowdrifts, too.

It bears repeating that the expected path of this storm could wobble a little to the east or west, so the forecast could still change. It doesn't take much of a shift in a nor'easter's storm track, or its forward speed, to change the amount of snow we get.

If the storm ends up being even a little more toward the coast and slows down, we'll get more snow here in Vermont. If it shifts a little east, the northwestern portion of the state will get a little less.

Of all the computer models, the American model is the least bullish for heavy snow in Vermont. The American model has the storm a little more to the east and a weaker feed of moisture into Vermont than the other models.

Even if the American model is right and all the other models are wrong, we're still in for quite a bit of snow and wind.

More "good" news. There's the possibility of another substantial snowstorm this coming weekend, but I don't have time to get into that now. Stay tuned for updates.

Big Snow Totals From Departing Storm, E. New England Still In Trouble

My driveway in St. Albans, Vermont was only partly dug out
and I still had to dig out my truck after the latest storm
dumped 13 inches of snow on my property. 

Thank goodness I shoveled the first half of this snowstorm out of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway last evening.

Had I not, I would have struggled with a bit more than a foot of new snow, instead of the five or so inches that accumulated after I shoveled.

As of 6:20 a.m, my house at St. Albans had 12.9 inches of new snow from the storm, and it was still snowing lightly.

That's a little more than I expected, and I imagine we'll hear of several reports across Vermont of close to or even more than a foot and a half.

Snowfall reports are only widely scattered as I write this, and more extensive snow total reports will come in later this morning. However, there are several reports of around a foot of snow in northwestern Vermont, like in Franklin County and Grand Isle.

There are reports of at least a foot of new snow coming in from central Vermont, too.

At last report the National Weather Service office reported 10.6 inches of new snow.

It looks like an upper level low pressure system, moving across Vermont last night as an ingredient to create the big nor'easter now off the New England coast, contributed to the relatively high snow totals.

It won't snow much more today in Vermont, with most places getting no more than one to three inches of additional accumulation, especially this morning.

Winds weren't particularly strong as of 6 a.m today, but they will pick up dramatically this morning and gust over 30 mph, so we're still in for a lot of blowing and drifitng snow.

Roads were already snow covered and slippery this morning, and will remain so with all that blowing snow today. Expect a slow commute to work this morning in most sections of Vermont.  A huge number of schools in Vermont are closed today, or at least have delayed openings. Check your local listings.

While it's practically all over but the crying and the shoveling in Vermont, parts of eastern New England are still in big trouble with this nor'easter.

Across eastern Massachusetts, wet snow clinging to trees combined with strong winds have caused widespread power failures there. It's going to get worse today as winds will get even stronger - up to 55 mph during the day today. 

The nor'easter is generating huge ocean waves, and gale force northwest winds will plow ocean water into the shores of eastern Massachucetts, especially north facing shores on Cape Cod.

During the high tide early this afternoon, forecasters warn of extensive flooding, possible structural damage to homes and evacuations. 

Meanwhile, a full scale blizzard continues to rage today in Downeast Maine and parts of Atlantic Canada, especially Nova Scotia.

So count yourself lucky, Vermonters.

Aside from today's wind, we'll have good shoveling weather, as it won't be all that cold, with highs in the 20s. Tuesday will be an excellent day for continued clean up with some sun, temperatures again well into the 20s and - Bonus! light winds.

THAT STORM ON WEDNESDAY

At this point, it looks like the new snowfall on Wednesday won't be all that extreme, especially the further west you go in New England, i.e. Vermont.

A storm system from the west will cross the state and drop a few inches of snow, as it looks now. Like in the past two episodes, the system coming in from the west will probably trigger a strong nor'easter off the New England coast.

However, this time, the nor'easter will be further east than the previous two, so that its effects on New  England will be less.

After the mid-week episode, we're going to go into a temporarily quieter weather pattern for a few days with little if any storminess next weekend and temperatures starting to get above normal again.

Evening Update: Vermont Snow Tapers Off Tonight, But........

Jackson the Weather Dog takes measurements amid heavy
falling snow in our yard, St. Albans, Vermont during
this afternoon's snowstorm. 

As of 5 p.m. Sunday, the snowstorm has been playing out about as expected.

The storm's heaviest snow in Vermont began in the early to mid-afternoon and continued as I wrote this at 5 p.m.

The heaviest of the snow will taper off between 9 p.m. and midnight, but continue in a lighter fashion well into Monday, as expected.

The snow was really coming down at 5 p.m. at my weather hacienda in St. Albans, and that was the case across most of eastern New York and Vermont.

That "shadowing" effect of lighter snow along the western slopes of the Green Mountains has materialized, but the shadowing isn't quite as intense as I thought earlier.

As a result, forecasters have bumped up total accumulations from this thing slightly in the Champlain Valley.  Most places there can expect at least six to 10 inches of snow from this thing.

As of around 4 p.m., widespread snow amounts of three or four inches had already been reported in and around Burlington north to St. Albans, so accumulations will easily get to six or more inches with this, based on late afternoon radar trends.

Elsewhere in Vermont, a general 8 to 15 inches of total accumulation is still expected, with locally more in the mountains.

Heavy snow will continue in most places across Vermont well into the evening, then taper off southwest to northeast.

The worst of the travel hazards on the roads are now and on through the evening with deep accumulating snow and poor visibilities.

Definitely get ready for a tough Monday morning commute. It won't be snowing as hard as it did Sunday afternoon and evening across Vermont, but it will still be snowing lightly. Plus, the wind will have picked up dramatically, and as noted in the earlier post today, there will be lots of blowing and drifing snow.

The storm will, as expected, consolidate into a powerful nor'easter off the New England coast on Monday.

I'm still pretty sure the nor'easter will be too far east of Vermont to produce heavy snow, but we'll certainly get those gusty winds to 40 mph along with occasional light snow. The mountains in particular could pick up a few more inches during the day Monday.

Powder day on Monday skiers and riders!!!!!

There are some changes to the forecast for extreme eastern New England, which will still take the brunt of this storm

They've lifted the blizzard watch for Cape Cod and the islands. It'll still snow there and be extremely windy, but blizzard conditions won't be met.

That's the good news for them. The very bad news for them is that a pretty bad coastal flood event is likely Monday, especially on north and east facing coastlines from about Boston south.

It could get quite destructive in places like Sandwich and Eastham, on Cape Cod, says the National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts.

Winds along the southeastern New England coast are still expected to gust to 65 mph or so. 

In Downeast Maine, the blizzard warning remains in effect on Monday.

I'm still expecting a break in the action Tuesday, and then things get interesting again Wednesday ane Thursday.

I'm sure it will snow again Wednesday and Wednesday night in most of New England, including all of Vermont, but nobody is sure yet how much.

As another weather disturbance comes in from the west, snow will break out again midweek, and then another strong nor'easter might try to form off the New England coast. Yes! The third one in a wee, if it materializes.  Definitely impressive.

What's not known is exactly where or even if that nor'easter will take shape, how strong it will be and how much snow it will bring. It all depends on how a disturbance coming in from the Great Lakes and another from the Gulf of Mexico interact, if they do at all. Stay tuned.

The weather finally turns quieter by next weekend. There are definite signs another thaw could set in within a week or so from now.

Blizzard Now Trudging Into The East Coast

The American computer model predicts nearly three
feet of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic (brown and gray
shades, and more than a foot in many other areas (yellow and orange)

As of this morning, snow was spreading into Virginia and nearby areas, marking the start of what still promises to be an epic blizzard.

Things are already totally screwed up. Good luck getting any flights along the East Coast. So many flights are cancelled that it's gumming up the works nationwide.

Store shelves across the Mid-Atlantic states have been cleared of bread, bottled water and all the other things people buy in a panic before a storm hits.  

Washington DC still seems to be the major city most in the bullseye for this storm, with more than two feet of wind-driven snow still expected.  The biggest snowstorm on record in DC dropped 28 inches of snow, so this one could set a new record.

Even before reaching the East Coast, this storm caused problems. A likely tornado damaged at least 10 houses in Lamar, Mississippi, and there were several other reports of hail and damaging winds near the Gulf Coast.

Tornado warnings were up just west of Tallahassee before dawn this morning.

More than six inches of snow plastered Little Rock, Arkansas, and a nasty mix of snow and freezing rain, all coming down hard, was trashing most of Tennessee early this morning.

The forecast for this storm remains remarkably consistent, changing little over the past three days, except along the northern edge of the areas expected to be affected by this. More on that in a minute.

One to three feet of snow is still expected in the Mid-Atlantic states and the central Appalachians, nasty coastal flooding is still expected from Maryland to Long Island, with Delaware and New Jersey most under the gun.  A very nasty, damaging ice storm is expected in much of North Carolina.

The question mark is around New York City, the largest metro area in America and the one place where no matter how good the meteorologists are, the forecast for this blizzard will probably be wrong.

There's going to be a strong cutoff along the northern edge of the storm between blizzard and nothing

As Slate writer Eric Holthaus tweeted this morning, one computer model had 20 inches of snow falling with this storm in Princeton, New Jersey but only two inches in the Bronx, just 60 miles to the north

The zone in which you transition from feet of snow to just a dusting is almost definitely going to be a little different from forecasts, because it always is in these situations.

The bread aisle in a Baltimore supermarket
was cleared out by last night. 

So, just like in a difficult blizzard forecast last January, parts or all of the New York City region are going to be buried in more snow than expected, angering just about everyone, or much less snow will fall than expected, which would mean no blizzard, and everyone will be angry about that.

Kudos to the National Weather Service meteorologists in and around New York, and all the TV meteorologists there for dealing with this situation professionally, and not quitting, and going into a corner to cry like I and a lot of other people would have if confronted with this forecasting nightmare.

At this point, the National Weather Service is going with six to 10 inches of snow in Manhattan, with much less to the north and much more to the south.

Forecasters are more certain about strong winds in the New York area, so the blizzard warning is still up in that region. We'll see what happens.

And to everyone in the blizzard zone, definitely heed all the weather warnings, don't travel until it's over and the roads begin to clear up and all will be fine.

Big Snows Not The Biggest Threat From Upcoming Stormal

I seriously doubt coastal flooding will be as
bad as in Superstorm Sandy in New Jersey, shown
here, but there is a threat of coastal damage
with this upcoming nor'easter. 

The East Coast is still gearing up for one of those blockbuster nor'easters that tend to get us weather geeks excited, the populace panicked and snow lovers rejoicing, or cursing if the snow misses.

Of course, the forecast is still tricky, and everybody is trying to pin down exactly who gets the most snow, the most wind, the most tidal flooding, that sort of thing.

I think forecasts for the nature of the storm will get a little more precise, accurate and certain later today. That's because the main initial weather disturbance that will cause this storm is coming ashore over the United States West Coast.

That will enable weather instruments and meteorologists to get a more detailed and complete assessment of what's going on in the atmosphere. It's easier to measure such things overhead on land, than it is when things are still over the remote Pacific Ocean.

The forecast for the storm will still end up being imperfect, as they always are for nor'easters, but at least by the end of the day we'll have higher confidence as to what's going on.

Already, winter storm warnings were up this morning for parts of Kentucky and Tennessee due to a smaller, initial storm rolling through ahead of the main action coming in Friday.

A wide area from the Ohio Valley to much of the Appalachians and East Coast are indeed due for a pretty big dump. Some areas in the central Appalachians and parts of the Middle Atlantic states could end up measuring the snow in feet, not inches.

While up to three feet of snow is certainly a big deal, if it materializes, this isn't the only threat from this likely upcoming storm. In fact, the snow isn't even the most serious threat, though it's the aspect of the expected nor'easter that's getting the most attention.

Much more worrisome is the good chance this storm will bring on some serious coastal flooding and coastal erosion. Secondary threats also include damaging icing, the threat of severe weather and possibly tornadoes, flooding, and of course, the snow.  

Forecast maps are still showing a strong nor'easter
on the East Coast Saturday.

Let's break it down:

COASTAL FLOODING

This storm might ultimately be remembered more for its coastal flooding and damage than the snow it will probably dump.

The storm will come along this weekend when the moon is full, which means tides will already be higher than usual.

The barometric pressure in this storm, when it's off the Mid-Atlantic coast, is forecast to be quite low. Such low pressure means the air isn't pressing down on the ocean so much, so the water can expand upward. That would contribute to higher tides, too.

The counterclockwise flow, from the east, will mean strong winds will blow over large expanses of the western Atlantic Ocean and push the water toward the East Coast, further increasing tides.

Add to that the fact that sea levels have risen a bit due to global warming, so the starting point from which the ocean water will rise and potentially cause flooding is that much higher.

While it's still uncertain how bad the coastal flooding might end up being, forecasters are getting concerned.

Yesterday, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, in southern New Jersey said this storm might bring one of the Top Five highest tides on record, and suggested people with coastal property prepare now.

In New York City, some forecasters feared the tide might become as high as it was during Hurricane Irene in August, 2011. Irene wasn't as bad as Superstorm Sandy a year later, but Irene still flooded parts of Lower Manhattan.

Again, nobody is sure how bad any coastal flooding might be, but it's definitely something to watch

SEVERE WEATHER

As the storm begins to get it's act together near and north of the Gulf Coast Thursday some severe thunderstorms and possibly even tornadoes could break out. If that happens, the best chance is in Louisiana, western Mississippi and maybe southern Arkansas.

As the storm moves east, there's an uncertain chance of more severe weather in Florida. That prospect is iffy since they'e already had enough with the tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and damaging winds over the past week or so.

ICE AND FREEZING RAIN

There will be a transition zone between the heavy snow to the north and rain to the south and east as this storm gets going along or off the Carolina coast.

It looks like there could well be a zone of freezing rain -- maybe a lot of it -- in the Southeast. I'm not sure yet, but the best bet looks to be in much of North Carolina. Maybe southern Virginia, too. There is a chance that enough freezing rain will accumulate in some areas to bring down lots of trees and power lines.

Forecasting ice storms this far in advance is particularly tricky. This IS something to keep an eye on though.

FLOODING

As it's developing the storm will dip down toward the Gulf of Mexico (as I noted in the severe weather section above) When it does that, it will pick up boatloads of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Nor'easters tend to also draw a LOT of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean as they develop. Waters just off the Eastern Seaboard are much warmer than normal. That means the storm will be able to draw even more moisture into its system than normal, since warmer water is more easily drawn into weather systems.

That opens up the possibility of flooding in southeastern North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.

It's been an incredibly wet winter in that section of the country, so it wouldn't take much to set off some flooding.

That said, although flooding is always dangerous, this will fall well short of a mega flood disaster, like the one that struck South Carolina last fall. 

SNOW

Yes, we have to talk about the snow. Remember how I said in the flooding section that the water off the East Coast is unusually warm, and the storm can thusly draw in more moisture than usual.

When that big moisture load hits the cold air north and west of the storm, the snow would become particularly heavy. That's why everyone is so excited and panicky over this potential storm. Because the snow could come down harder than it does in a "normal" nor'easter.

The first winter storm watch for heavy snow with this storm was issued for much of West Virginia. You'll see those watches and alerts spreading a lot during the day today and tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised to see isolated snow totals of up to three feet in the mountains of West Virginia, western Virginia and maybe North Carolina.

The National Weather Service office in Washington/Baltimore appeared ready as of mid-morning to issue a blizzard watch for later Friday and Saturday. 

In some areas, the snow will be wet and heavy. And possibly mixed with freezing rain. That would cause widespread power failures in the most affected areas. Again, it's too soon to pin down precisely who gets the most snow, who gets the dry, powdery snow, and who gets the more dangerous wet and heavy stuff that knocks down trees and power lines.

Sorry, northern New England snow enthusiasts.
It's still looking you''re going to miss out on
the upcoming nor'easter, but you did get a bit of
snow yesterday, as seen in this photo taken
Tuesday morning in Colchester, Vermont. 

There are snow lovers here where I live in northern New England. Miracles can happen, but it still looks like northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine are going to sit this storm out

Southern New England is going to be living on the edge. I'd hate to be a meteorologist in places like Massachusetts and Connecticut right now. The northern edge of the precipitation is going to have a sharp cut off between heavy and light.

If the storm goes literally just 20 miles north or south of where it is forecast to go, areas in southern New England that are forecast to get light snow could get dumped on, or areas that are forecast to be buried could get next to nothing.

By the way, if, on the day before a nor'easter, you forecasted it to go 50 miles west or east of where it actually goes, you've still done an excellent forecasting job with these notoriously fickle storms. It's nearly impossible to get the path right within a margin of 20 miles.

There's still going to be a lot of updates on this storm as forecasts become more refined.

As I noted yesterday, there's a lot of hype out there. And a lot of information to digest, just in this blog post alone.

If it looks like you're going to get hit with this storm, just relax, chill, make whatever preparations local forecasters tell you to make. And then ride it out at home where you're safe and warm - unless you're right along the coast.

A few places might end up getting a truly memorable storm, we'll have to wait and see. But it's winter, not the end of the world. So enjoy the ride.

East Coast Rains To Be Too Much Of A Good Thing

Ocean surging onto the beach in Duck, North Carollina
this weekend. More coastal erosion is likely all week.  

It's been dry during the late summer and early autumn up and down most of the East Coast, but that sure is changing this week.

An interesting weather pattern has been setting up over the past couple of days and will come into full force this week.

The weather pattern will feature lots of rain, some wind, and especially damaging tides and beach erosion up and down the East Coast. Those coastal problems have already started.

Generally, the expected big rains are welcome because it has been so dry, but in some places, this might turn out to be too much of a good thing.

Some of the heavy rain has started too. The Carolinas, which had been dry, have gotten locally five or more inches of rain since late last week.

More rain is developing. There are flood watches now in the Florida Panhandle, which had also been dry. There has already been some nasty flooding around Mobile, Alabama. 

Over the course of the next seven days, three to five inches of rain could come down from the Middle Atlantic states into the eastern half of New England.

The weather pattern that's causing all this features a strong high pressure system over eastern Canada. Once it fully sets up, it won't move much most of the week. The clockwise winds around the high will bring lots of east to northeast winds to much of the East Coast.

The long fetch of east winds over water and astronomically high tides will continue the beach erosion and flooding during high tides that much of the East Coast has experienced the past couple of days.

High tides thsi weekend bring a kayaker
into the streets near Norfolk, Virginia  

That flooding could get worse as storminess increases along the coast, too. There's been a lot of wannabe tropical systems that never quite got going, including what was Tropical Storm Ida.

There's oodles of moisture with these wannabe systems, and just a general flow of intense wetness wanting to come up the East Coast.

On top of that, a tropical depression has formed between Bermuda and Florida. 

It will probably increase in strength a little to become Tropical Storm Joaquin.  There is a chance Joaquin or its remnants could head toward New England maybe next weekend.

That would increase the potentially flooding rains, the winds and the coastal flooding and erosion.

Luckily, as noted, it's been dry in New England and elsewhere in the East, so any flooding that does develop won't be as bad as it had been wet.

Inland in New England, where I live in Vermont, I was working in the yard yesterday and it was dust, dust, dust. A good one to three inches of rain is due in Vermont over the next seven days, which will be nice.

Not so nice is the long, long stretch of wave action on the coast. Expect lots of reports of serious beach erosion and repeated inundation of low lying areas.

This won't be anything like the epic coastal flooding of Superstorm Sandy in 2012, but the repeated high water and wave battering all this week is going to cause a lot of headaches, for sure.

NYC Spared, New England Horribly Slammed In Blizzard of 2015

Times Square last night. The storm wasn't nearly as
bad as forecast in New York, but New
 England is getting HAMMERED  

The big headline this morning with the Blizzard of 2015 is New York City went through a giant false alarm and the storm wasn't nearly as bad as forecast.

That's very true and I will get into that in a second. But let's not ignore New England. In some parts of the region, the storm is proving as bad or even worse than the dire forecasts.

The storm causing the New England blizzard was as of 7 a.m. this morning the strongest storm on Earth at the moment.

There's been severe coastal flooding in Massachusetts, winds have gusted so far to as high as 78 mph in Nantucket, a band of snow has set up in eastern New England that is dropping snow at rates of three or more inches per hour and as of 6:30 a.m., thunder snow was being reported in southeastern Massachusetts.

I'm jumping around, but alright, alright, I'll get into what went wrong with the forecast for New York.

I'm sure in one sense they're relieved they didn't get the two or more feet of snow that was forecast, but then they're also pretty mad that everything got shut down, the roads, the subways, for no good reason.

It's expensive when that happens. Highways and other forms of transportation are reopening this morning around New York.

The National Weather Service in Upton, New York, which covers the New York City metro area, had a much trickier forecast to begin with than Massachusetts.

It seemed pretty clear from Sunday on that southeastern New England would get slammed and that has proven true.

But there were questions all along as to how far west the heaviest snow bands would reach, the ones that drop three or four inches of snow per hour.  Most forecasters knew that whoever was just a few miles west of that band of heavy snow would get MUCH less snow, on the order of a foot or so.

The consensus was they'd get to the Hudson River or just west of that. That's right where New York is.

The bands of heavy snow didn't make it quite as far west as forecast. The meteorologists were only off with this by 20 or 30 miles.  Central Long Island is still going to get two or more feet of snow out of this.

Normally people would have hardly noticed such a slight error. The forecast was actually not too bad for this type of storm.

But the fact that New York got missed, with all those people noticing the inaccurate prediction, and the fact that New York is arguably the media capital of the world, means this not-quite-right forecast will be trumpeted far and wide and constantly.

What worries me is the next time there's a dangerous storm of any sort--another blizzard, a hurricane, a super storm like Sandy, everybody will say weather forecasters are crying wolf and not take precautions. That could get dangerous.

I do have to give props to The Weather Channel. Me, the National Weather Service and most other forecasters thought New York was going to get blasted. The Weather Channel, however, played down the amount of snow New York would get.

Lots of us scoffed at the Weather Channel, but they're getting the last laugh. Congratulations to them for getting this forecast right.

NEW ENGLAND

Let's turn back to New England which has been getting hammered and continues to get trashed.

Coastal flooding with this early morning's high tide was as bad or even worse than expected. There were evacuations and reports of at least one car floating in the streets of Scituate, Mass., which often takes a pummeling in the severest nor'easters.

Storm surge flooding in Nantucket this morning.  

If I had to pick a town that has so far been hit the hardest, I'd say Plymouth, Mass.

As of 4:30 a.m., Plymouth had gotten 16 inches of snow, it was still snowing incredibly hard and visibility was near zero. Winds gusted as high as 63 mph in Plymouth, and coastal flooding had water three or four feet deep on some Plymouth streets.

A huge band of intense snow (the one that didn't make it to New York City) pretty much stayed put overnight and so far this morning in eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, the eastern third of Massachusetts, especially just west of Boston and along the entire coasts of New Hampshire and Maine.

It was still there as of 7:30 this morning,  That will be the zone that ends up with 24 to 40  inches of snow out of this. Worcester, Mass. reports 25 inches of snow. Shrewsbury, Mass., in that band, had already picked up 22 inches of snow as of 7 a.m.. Four inches of that came in just one hour. Incredible!

Not surprisingly, blizzard warnings are still up. 

Worse, the next high tide, late this afternoon, could renew the coastal flooding and be just as bad as this morning's. Even worse, high waves will batter the New England coast all day.

The Boston Globe reports flooding in Scituate, with about a dozen people evacuated, Hull, some significant flooding in downtown Nantucket, and flooding in Edgartown and Oak Bluffs, on Martha's Vineyard.

Things will continue totally wild in eastern New England this morning, then the snow will slowly begin to taper off. But only slowly as the incredibly strong storm only grudgingly moves away.

The snow has had trouble making it into northern New England. The arctic high pressure system feeding the cold air into the blizzard also has a lot of dry air, helping to prevent much precipitation in northwestern Vermont.

I'll post updates today as they come in.