Storm Update: Huge Plains Mess Today; New England Mess Monday

Ice covers trees in my St. Albans yard in 2017. Scenes like this
will be common in parts of the upper Midwest, Ontario and New York
and New England between now and Monday.

That ongoing, slow moving winter storm out in the middle of the nation is, as expected, creating a mess in the middle of hte nation and will continue to do so through the weekend.

This storm is a slow mover, especially compared to the usual fast pace of weather systems this time of year.

This makes the winter weather with this storm even more long-lasting, annoying and disruptive than usual. The storm will also be remembered as one that will have spread ice through large sections of the Plains and elsewhere.  

Then, the action will skip to New England by Sunday night and Monday, and there will be a huge mess there, too. More on that down below, but first we'll get into what's going on in the Plains.

A wide stripe from western Nebraska, central South Dakota, eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is still getting or going to get socked by eight to 20 inches of snow.  Just east of that, in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, they're in for rain, freezing rain, sleet, then snow, blowing snow and gusty winds, so it will be a real mess where I am in Yankton, South Dakota.

In parts of southwestern Minnesota, an ice storm warning is in effect.  Freezing rain could accumulated to as thick as a half inch, which is more than enough to bring down trees and power lines.

A little to the south in Iowa, a few areas could see enough rain to cause some localized flooding

All this precipitation in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa is unwelcome for another reason. This year will roughly tie last year as the wettest year on record in this region.  Despite what has been until now a relatively dry December, the ground is still totally soaked from two years of unprecedented rain and other precipitation.

The snow and ice will have to eventually melt, which will just provide more excess water. The James River in South Dakota, unbelievably, has been constantly in flood stage since March.

Further south, broadly in the area where Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma meet, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado or two later today and tonight.

ON TO NEW ENGLAND

This is just one forecast among many varying ones regarding the
potential for ice Monday. This map depicts ice accumulation
of more than a half inch in darker pink areas. That's enough to
cause damage. I would emphasize this is just one computer run
on one model and results will likely be very different, and likely
not as bad as this forecast indicates. Still something to
with out for, though. 

As the strong storm center moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front will want to come in from the southwest, bringing plenty of moisture for steady precipitation with it.

Meanwhile, cold high pressure way up in Quebec will be stubborn as hell, and not let the warm air advance.

The warm air will try to go up an over the cold air, which sets much of New England and New York up for mixed precipitation. A large section of Ontario is under the gun for freezing rain and sleet, too.

The battle between the cold and warm looks like it will reach a stalemate right over or near northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts, so tha'ts the zone we have to really watch for ice and sleet.

Early indications are the freezing rain would be the biggest problem from the northern Adirondacks, southeastward into far southern Vermont, and into central New England, say in a broad area around Worcester.

There's a risk -not a certainty! -  these areas could see a damaging ice storm. The prolonged nature of the freezing rain from perhaps Sunday night through Monday, could bring enough freezing rain accumulations to bring down trees and power lines.

Remember, this freezing rain zone could end up being a little north and east, or a little south and west of current forecasts, so everybody in and around Vermont will want to watch this one.

People just to the northeast of the most intense freezing rain zone could end up getting a lot of sleet. I suppose that's better, because sleet doesn't accumulate on power lines and trees, it just bounces off. But if you get a bunch of sleet, it's heavier than hell to shovel away.  Far northern New England, maybe northern New Hampshire and a good chunk of Maine stand to get at least several inches of snow.

A secondary storm will likely form south of New England and move northeastward.  That would eventually help colder air leach in through all layers of the atmosphere, which would change much of the rain to snow.

Meanwhile, the parent low over the Great Lakes will slowly weaken and drift toward New England. All this means that the ski areas of Vermont and surrounding states will get a long period of snow. This would go probably from Monday night well into Wednesday.

It won't snow super hard, butthe long duration means the ski slopes would get many inches of recovery snow.  Temperatures won't be very cold, so the light snow would mix with rain in some of the valleys. Plus precipitation will be even lighter in the valleys than in the mountains.

This whole New England forecast, especially for the ice Sunday night and Monday will almost definitely change. This whole essay just gives you an idea of what we might expect. Stay tuned for inevitable adjustments to the forecast.

Bottom line: Expect lousy travel throughout the region Monday, with a risk of spotty power outages and tree damage.