Strong Storm Threatens Midwest Tornadoes, Other Troubles

Areas shaded in orange and red have the greatest risk of
tornadoes Saturday. A couple tornadoes could be long-lasting
and strong.  Areas in yellow have a somewhat lesser but
still real chance of severe storms Saturday. 

As if people don't already have enough to worry about, a strong storm could unleash some tornadoes, possibly strong ones, and other dangerous hazards in the middle of the nation this weekend.

It's a classic spring storm setup. The disturbance is now getting going in Colorado and will move across Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and into the Great Lakes by Sunday.

This storm will affect us here in Vermont, but it won't be nearly as dangerous as in parts of the Midwest.

Forecasters are especially worried about an area centered on northern Illinois on Saturday.  That area will be just to the southeast of the storm center.

This position will guarantee winds changing direction with height, one ingredient you need for rotating supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes.

Add to that very humid air streaming into that area, a  batch of drier air coming in from the west, and instability caused by the sun's heating during the day and you definitely increase the risk.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk for severe storms in northern Illinois Saturday, which is their second highest alert level.  It looks like supercell thunderstorms that are not connected to one another (they call them discrete supercells) will get going in that region Saturday afternoon.

When supercells are "discrete," they have a better chance of lasting a long time as they travel toward the east or northeast, and have a better chance of producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center says a couple tornadoes could be very strong and long-lasting.

This setup in Illinois reminds me a lot of a similar situation in April, 2015 that produced 11 northern Illinois tornadoes, including an EF-4 that killed two people and injured a couple dozen others in Rochelle and Fairdale, Illinois 

A lesser, but real chance of severe storms and tornadoes will exist as far east as Ohio and as far south as Mississippi on Saturday.

Predicting tornado outbreaks is a very tricky business.  If just one subtle ingredient is missing, then nothing super bad will happen. If one little meteorological ingredient is a bit more robust than expected, watch out.  The bottom line is nobody is very sure what will happen in northern Illinois Saturday, but it definitely bears watching.

Elsewhere, the storm could produce enough heavy rain in central Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. The storm looks like it will produce several inches of wet, heavy snow in northeastern Minnesota, near Lake Superior.

By the way, ahead of the main show on Saturday, a few severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. The main threat is really big hail, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Nothing super dangerous will come out of this storm for us in the Green Mountain State, but Sunday looks like it will be a raw, ugly day.

Saturday looks gorgeous out ahead of the storm with relatively warm temperatures near 50. Sunshine will start to fade behind thickening clouds in the afternoon - a harbinger of the storm.

Sunday will feature rain, gusty winds, and freezing rain in spots. Most if not all of the freezing rain will be along and east of the Green Mountains during the first half of Sunday.  Any  ice accumulation will be pretty light, and the roads generally won't be too bad, as road surface temperatures are likely to be a bit above freezing.

Besides, hardly anyone is driving around these days, right?

There might even be a rumble of thunder thrown in here and there Sunday afternoon, we'll see.

In the spring, storms tend to slow down their forward speed, especially when they reach our neck of the woods and that will be the case this time.  So showers will keep going through Monday night, though the precipitation will be mostly lighter by Sunday night and Monday.

They're predicting about an inch of rain with this system in Vermont, give or take.  Rivers will rise, but this doesn't look quite big enough at this point to have us worry about any real flooding.

Here's a famous video taken by a person watching the 2015 Fairdale, Illinois tornado from his house. He thought it would miss, but it veered toward him, destroying his house, injuring him and killing his wife. It's a lesson: Tornadoes can change directions.  Even if you think you're safe, take cover just in case. Here's the video It's scary!

Tornado Risk Escalates In Mid-South; Gusty Storm Due In Vermont, Too.

There is yet another risk of tornadoes today in parts of the Mid-South
The greatest risk, in the yellow cross hatch area, appares to be in
the western half of Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, southern Illinois
and the southeast corner of Missouri. 

Yesterday, I speculated about the rest of the tornado season in the United States, given the fact that we're off to a bad start.

It's looking like things escalated in that department are escalating today.  At least potentially.

There's a pretty good risk of tornadoes, some potentially strong, in much of Kentucky, and in southern Illinois and Indiana and northwestern Tennessee.

Tennessee, of course, is still reeling from a deadly March 3 tornado outbreak, so I'm sure this makes them nervous.  The Nashville area that was hit earlier this month is in the tornado risk zone, but not in the heart of it. Places north of Nashville are.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says thunderstorms should generate in Missouri later this morning and then get stronger by the time they get into western Kentucky by early afternoon.

Strong jet stream winds over the area, wind directions changing with height, plenty of moisture from the south and atmospheric instability should create conditions favorable for strong thunderstorms and tornadoes in the area I described above during the afternoon and evening.  A couple tornadoes could br quiet strong.  If that happens, let it be over rural areas instead of cities and suburbs like earlier in the month.

By tomorrow, there should be a much lower risk of tornadoes in the United States. But a new system might create a low,  but not zero chance of twisters in a small area of western Texas. That should not be a huge deal, however.

The parent storm that helping to produce today's tornado risk is actually just developing in the western Great Lakes. It'll move into Ontario and the western Quebec over the next few days. The storm's cold front will bring a bout of raw, windy weather to us Vermonters Friday.

There could be some mixed precipitation, especially east of the Green Mountains early Friday, which could affect the morning commute.  Gusty south and southeast winds are also expected in much of Vermont Friday, which could bring some isolated power outages.

It won't be a massive wind storm by any means, but a few favored places, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 50 mph Friday.

It'll rain area wide on Friday after any mixed precipitation ends, but it won't be enough to cause any flooding of note.  There has been a fair amount of snowmelt and the Friday rain will add to the runoff. But it won't be enough to make rivers overflow to any real extent.

This sounds to be like it'll be typical March ickiness.  On the bright side, there is a 0% chance of any tornadoes in Vermont this week. But you knew that already.

New York Homes Turned Into Ice Castles

One of the houses at Hoover Beach in Hamburg, New York covered
with ice after large waves from Lake Erie sprayed the houses
with water amid subfreezing temperatures last week. 

Not all areas of western New York were hit by heavy lake effect snow squalls last week

Depending upon where the bands set up, you either measured the snow in feet, or you got out a broom and swept away a dusting of it.

The town of Hamburg, New York, right on the shores of Lake Erie, only managed about six inches of new snow.

Still,  Lake Erie is oddly unfrozen for this time of year.  Which is why those heavy lake effect snows happen. The unfrozen Lake Erie also created another problem besides blizzards.  

For a couple days last week the winds absolutely screamed from the west off the lakes. This generated some awfully big waves on those  lakes. Plus, lake levels are much above normal, so the water is already closer than it usually is to lakeshore homes.

In Hamburg, New York, Lake Erie waves crashing onto the shore created some odd ice castles. At least three homes were encased in thick ice from waves hitting the shore, causing spray to fly through the  air in the gale and onto the houses.

During the storm, occupants had to basically chisel their way out of at least one of the homes.  Ed Mis, the owner of one of the houses, told television station WGRZ that the front of his house is encased in ice one to three feet thick.  One side of a neighbor's house is buried in ice almost to the roof.

It's unclear how badly damaged the houses are. It could be minor, who knows?  Homeowners will need to wait for the ice to melt before figuring that out.  Daytime temperatures in the area are forecast to be in the 40s for much of this week, so maybe at least some of the ice will come off the structures.

Here's a video of what it looked like:

Entertaining Weather Videos On A Slow Weather Day

Clear skies in the Northeast Friday allowed a great view of where snow
was on the ground, where it wasn't, what was frozen, what not.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see details.

Things have temporarily gotten slow in the weather department, but don't worry, things will be pretty active around here by the middle and end of the week.

While we have some quiet weather moments, some goofy weather videos to share. And a photo.

The photo on the right is a satellite shot taken amid unusually clear skies in the eastern United States on Friday.  Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see the details of the current state of the winter.

The snow cover in New England ends just over the Massachusetts border from Vermont and New Hampshire. The Great Lakes are remarkably ice-free for late February. Even the Finger Lakes in New York aren't frozen.

You can also see that a large section of Lake Champlain is also free of ice. It almost certainly will not completely freeze over this year.  We have a few warm days coming. Even if it turns cold in March, the increasing sun angle would help erode new ice that forms at night.

Down in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, you can also see an area of snow on the ground from a small storm the day before.  By the end of the day yesterday, that snow in the Southeast was mostly gone.

The clouds off the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts are caused by cold air blowing over the relatively warm waters of the Atlantic.  There were even a few ocean-effect snow flurries from these clouds Friday morning on Cape Cod.

Now some videos:

This one has been billed as a "carbon neutral way to prevent ice dams:"



Next up, stupidity of the day.  We see this all the time. People drive right into floodwaters, not knowing how deep it is, not caring how dangerous it is.  A lot of it is stupidity.

There's still a lot of flooding going in in England due to two immense storms over the past couple weeks.  Here, we see rescuers in elaborate safety gear with boats heading out to retrieve residents from obviously deep floodwater in one neighborhood.

You and I wouldn't drive down that flooded street, right? The turbulent water and the rescue crews would seem like dead giveaways not to proceed.  Not everybody thinks like that. Watch the rescuers shake their heads in disbelief:



In Michigan, volcanoes have been erupting last week.  Don't worry, no lava in Detroit, no pyroclastic flows in Ann Arbor. Instead, ice has piled up on the windy shores of Lake Michigan.  More waves pounding in get under the ice and water pressure creates these "ice volcanoes."  They're pretty cool:



Also, in Michigan, another icy phenomenon.  A curving current in a small river created a rotating ice disk, much like that larger, more famous one that formed in Maine last year.  Here's the mesmerizing Michigan ice disk:

Not Just Vermont: This Storm Was Huge, Odd In Many Ways

Did the best I could cleaning off more than a foot of snow from my truck,
and the quarter inch thick layer of solid ice beneath that. Not perfect for my trip
to work unfortunately. Hoping parking in the sun today will
melt more ice off the rig.

That big storm we had yesterday is out of our hair and we can go out in the very brisk air and start digging out.

If you're in northwestern Vermont or northern New York, or in parts of southern Quebec, you have a LOT of digging to do. 

The storm total at my house in St. Albans, Vermont starting early Thursday morning and ending last night was 16.3 inches.

Burlington's two-day storm total was 14.9 inches. The 11.5 inches that fell on Burlington just Friday alone was enough to set a record for the date for most snow on any February 7.

There was a report via Accuweather of 23.5 inches of new snow in Warren.

There were still about 5,000 homes and businesses without power, mostly in eastern Vermont early this morning. Ice had accumulated on trees and power lines during the storm Thursday into Friday morning, causing that trouble. More than 10,000 were without power Friday afternoon in Vermont.

Across the Northeast and Middle Atlantic States, a total of 250,000 were without power.

The storm was of course disruptive because of travel problems, along with hundreds upon hundreds of closed schools, businesses and events.

At least as impressive with this storm was the big trouble it caused from Texas to eastern Canada.  In many cases, that trouble was much worse than the snow and ice we Vermonters had to deal with.

By my count, there were at least 50 tornadoes from Mississippi to Maryland during the storm.  One extremely unusual detail were the at least five tornadoes and more than 200 reports of thunderstorm wind damage in the Middle Atlantic states, from Virginia to New Jersey.  That kind of tornado and severe storm outbreak that far north along the East Coast is extremely rare.

At least two deaths were blamed on tornadoes in the South.  Near Charlotte, North Carolina, one day care operator did the right tornado safety thing. There were five babies sleeping in the home day care when the operator got a tornado warning. She and her husband moved the babies to the center of the house. A moment later trees crashed down on the structure, crushing the room where the babies had been. Nobody was injured.

Flooding was severe in much of the Southeast with this storm's torrential rains.  Mobile homes were swept away in rural Kentucky. Parts of downtown Gatlinburg, Tennessee were flooded, and there were high water evacuations throughout the Southeast.

It's been an incredibly wet winter in the South, and more heavy rain storms are due there over the coming week. Flooding will continue to be a risk down there.

As the storm intensified over New England Friday, winds gusted to as high as 80  mph on Cape Cod, causing added damage.

Given all these problems and all the damage the storm caused, we can consider it among the worst to hit the United States in recent years.  It's possible it caused a total of a $1 billion in damage or more across the South and East. We'll see.

Going forward, there are no new big storms on the horizon for us here in Vermont, though some light snow will come down Sunday night. It could mix with rain in the valleys during the day Monday. After that, there will be other bouts of light snow through much of the upcoming week.

Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.

Vermont Evening Storm Update: Deep Snow NW; Ugly Mix Then Snow Elsewhere

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast map.  Notice
the change from this morning: The heaviest snow is further
north and west. 

Often, you can tell whether a storm will have a big impact on Vermont as it comes up the coast by looking what happens in the southeastern United States.

If things are ugly in the Southeast, then there's a good chance we'll have a humdinger of a storm hours later in northern New England.

Today, the Southeast was plagued by a series of severe storms and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also widespread down there.

This storm has a lot of moisture to work with. So yeah, Vermont's going to get quite a bit of precipitation between now and Friday night.

Where you are in Vermont and surrounding areas really depends upon precisely where you are. The far northwestern part of the state looks like it will get buried in snow, according to updated National Weather Service forecasts late this afternoon. The further south and east you go, the more sleet and freezing rain comes in.

Today's semi-stormy Vermont weather was well ahead of the main show.   As expected, most of Vermont got two to five inches of snow, followed by some mixed precipitation in central and southern areas this afternoon.

I only got 2.1 inches of new snow in St. Albans, in the northwestern corner of Vermont. There so far has been no mixed precipitation up here, but as I shoveled this first installment, it seemed pretty dense, hinting at a high water content.  At least the fact that there was no mix up here resulted in a fairly pretty winter day in northwestern Vermont, especially if you like snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out this
ice accumulation forecast map this afternoon. Orange areas
would get a tenth of an inch of ice. Red areas could see a quarter inch
before it all changes to snow Friday. 

Late this afternoon and early this evening, some areas of Vermont have found a lull, with no precipitation falling.

Patches of mixed precipitation will cross over Vermont overnight. It won't amount to too much, but it will be a harassing situation in terms of road conditions and that type of thing.

There are some changes in the overall forecast compared to this morning's outlook.   I knew that would happen, as this is a complex storm.

At this point, far northwestern Vermont will see periods of mostly snow overnight, though some sleet or even freezing rain could mix in.

Elsewhere, southeast of a line from Plattsburgh to Jay Peak, says the National Weather Service, it'll be a mixed bag.

It doesn't seem like precipitation will be too, too heavy overnight, but any amount of mixed precipitation is a pain in the butt.

Friday still looks like a total show stopper.  The storm coming out of the Southeast will consolidate. It will be rapidly strengthening and a whopper of a storm by the time it reaches New England.

Forecasters are still looking at a band of very intense precipitation on the northwestern flank of the storm.  Very heavy snow will develop in northern New York early in the morning and move east into the Champlain Valley by mid morning, according to the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

A steady, day long light snow today in St. Albans, Vermont amounted
 to two inches and pretty, snow laden pine trees in my yard.
Friday will be much more wild than this as the winter storm
intensifies. Lots of snow northwest, ice southeast

Especially south of St. Albans in the Champlain Valley, it's possible you'll be lulled into a false sense of security if you get up early and get ready for work.  Not much will be falling from the sky, but as the early to mid morning wears on, it'll puke snow.

It might start as mixed precipitation but it will rapidly go over to snow. The initial mixed precipitation Friday morning  is least likely up by St. Albans and most likely from Burlington south and east.

This morning, it looked as if most of Vermont north of Route 2 would get a good foot and a half of snow.  Now, that deepest snow will mostly in the northern Champlain Valley and west of the Green Mountains  - north of Burlington and in northern New York.

But it will be at least as awful further south and east across northern and central Vermont.  A good dose of sleet and freezing rain in the morning will turn into a a burst of very heavy snow that will last a few hours as it moves northwest to southeast during the day.

Most areas in Vermont will have turned over to snow by mid-afternoon.

You're going to see a sharp gradient in snow accumulation from northwest to southeast, at least if Thursday evening forecasts hold.  The initial guess calls for accumulations of around 19 inches in St. Albans, maybe a foot around Burlington, and perhaps six inches by the time you get down to Montpelier.  (I'm lifting that info from the NWS Burlington forecast map.)

In a way, though, the back-breaking shoveling I'm going to have to do up in St. Albans might be better than the alternative.

Ice accumulation south of Route 2 looks like it will be at least a tenth of an inch.  Try dealing with that kind of ice in your driveway then snow on top of that.  Or worse, try to be a state or town public works crew trying to clear that mess from the roads.

Even though there are slight changes in the forecast from this morning, my advice remains the same. Stay home Friday if you can.  I noticed a lot of schools have already announced they are shut down on Friday and a lot of events are canceled. That's a very good thing, in my opinion. The fewer people on Vermont roads Friday, the better.

I mentioned this will be a strong storm. That means strong winds. As temperatures crash, the snow will get more and more lighter and powdery.  That means lots of blowing and drifting snow Friday night as winds gust to more than 30 mph.

By the way, with a fresh snow pack on the ground, clearing skies and light winds Saturday night, we'll have the coldest night of the winter.  On the bright side, it hasn't been a cold winter, so the coldest night of the winter Saturday night means lows between 5 and 20 below.  Nothing extreme by Vermont standards.

Beyond that, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, but I don't see any immediate signs of another huge storm in the coming week or so.  Small systems, yes, but no blockbusters.

Big Snow Dump Likely Coming To Northern Vermont/NY

The famous National Weather Service snow forecast map from the
National Weathe Service in South Burlington. Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see.  There could be 20
inches or more of snow from this storm near the Canadian border.

As expected the first inch or few inches of snow have fallen in much of Vermont early this morning in what promises to be a long slog through snow and mixed precipitation.

The precipitation will harass us through tonight, but the main show comes on Friday, and it has the potential to be a real doozy.

As of around 8 a.m., light snow was falling over most of Vermont, with mixed precipitation coming into the far south of the state. The question for today is, how far north will that mix get?

There's no question the southern half of Vermont will be pretty damn messy today.  

After the few inches of snow that accumulate there this morning, it'll go over to sleet and freezing rain.  In the southern half of Vermont, that mix of yuck will probably continue into Friday morning.

The most ice will probably accumulate south of Route 4.  Except in some isolated areas, it won't be enough to cause tree and power line damage, but it will surely mess up travel!  Additional snow toward the end of the storm could cause more power line trouble Friday.

It's hard to say how far north the sleet or a little freezing rain will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if sleet made it as far north as the Canadian border, at least briefly.  Still, areas north of Route 2 will be mostly snow through tonight.

The rate of precipitation will lull you into a false sense of security this afternoon and this evening.  It won't come down hard, and you'll say, "Oh, this isn't so bad. Another hyped storm."

And I suppose there's a chance it could be a bust.  But right now, things are lining up for Grand Hurrah for the last phase of the storm on Friday - one that could bring a good foot and a half of snow, especially to places north of that infamous Route 2 line.

Yesterday, I mentioned that often, on the northwest side of a storm moving up the New England coast, you get a band of especially heavy precipitation that pretty much stays nearly in one place for several hours at least.

It's starting to become a little more clear where that band will set up, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

They're saying that band of heavy snow will establish itself over northern New York before dawn, then slowly crawl eastward across Vermont during the day Friday. Under this band, snowfall rates could easily reach one to two inches per hour, possibly even more than that. - which is really, really heavy snow. A good portion of northern Vermont could easily get six to 12 inches snow in just a few hours.  

Ice accumulation forecast for this storm in southern Vermont. The
ice, combined with some heavy, wet snow, could cause
scattered power outages Friday.

The expected set up, with a strong, deep cold front hitting the intense moisture feed with this storm, is a recipe for really heavy snow.

It's similar to they type of situation we had in the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007, or the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.  

However, having said that, it does NOT look like this storm will be as bad as those two famous storms. The band of heavy snow won't last nearly as long in any one place as it did in these two historic storms.

At this point the heaviest snow in this band seems like it will come through in the morning to mid-afternoon, so I would stay put and not drive anywhere during this. The snow will initially be somewhat wet and heavy, but turn much more powdery as the day wears on.

Southern Vermont has an even trickier forecast with this.  Remember, they'll be more into the sleet and freezing rain Friday morning.  My guess is they'll be on the southern end of this intense precipitation band.

Sleet and freezing rain could turn heavy for a time, then change to a period of heavy snow, with several inches of accumulation a good bet.

It's interesting that northern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for this event, while southern Vermont is under what to a layman seems like a less dire but still to be taken seriously winter weather advisory.

In my experience, dealing with, then cleaning up after a combined mixed precipitation and heavy snow event is much more difficult than just enduring, then shoveling away a particularly deep snowstorm that comes with little or no ice.

The snow will become lighter in intensity late in the afternoon or evening on Friday, then end overnight, aside from continued snow showers in the mountains.

However, definitely stay home Friday night if you can. Winds will pick up to 20 mph or so, with gusts of 35 mph.  That'll cause a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will plummet overnight, too, dropping to near zero in many spots by Saturday morning. Wind chills will be a huge problem.

Saturday will be the time to enjoy a powder day in the northern Green Mountains. It'll still definitely be on the cold side, but the winds will slowly diminish and skies will get sunnier.  Sunday looks pretty gorgeous, too, with light winds and highs up in the 20s (after temperatures recover from below zero readings early Sunday morning.)

The bottom line is this will probably be Vermont's Storm of the Winter.  At least in most of the state. (A December storm was much bigger than this in far southern Vermont.) A band across extreme northern New York, then through places like St. Albans and on over to Newport could get about 20 inches of snow.  Which means this is more than a typical Vermont snowstorm.

Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 are in for roughly a foot of snow, give or take a few inches.  South of Route 4, all that mixed precipitation will limit totals to eight inches or less. At least that's the way it looks now.

Potential surprises with this storm:  Mixed precipitation could work further north than expected, cutting down accumulations somewhat. Or, that band of really heavy snow expected Friday in the north could end up being a little less intense than forecast, which would cut down forecast totals. On the other hand, local wind effects working with this band of snow could create spot snow totals of two feet or more in some northern locations

In southern Vermont, if the atmosphere is a bit colder than expected, snow accumulations will obviously be a little heavier. On the other hand, it's possible it could get a little warmer than forecast, which would change everything over to plain rain for a time.

So yeah, there are still question marks about this storm.  But one thing is for sure: You will certainly notice this storm.

You Know The Drill: Icy, Icky Vermont Weekend

Another icy, yucky weekend in Vermont.  Not as much as in this photo
from January 12, but still the risk of icy roads, sidewalks, etc. 

True to form for this winter: It's another weekend, and we have another not huge but still icky storm to deal with.

Unlike last weekend, when we were treated to just snow, which was nice, this one is still looking to be a mostly schmutz event.

So we go through this drill again. We watch out for icy roads, and we have to pick our way gingerly over frozen, slippery sidewalks. Some spots are just wet and fine, then you find an icy patch and down you go.  

Temperatures for this entire storm statewide are going to be pretty close to the freezing mark. With some warm air coming in aloft, that means rain, freezing rain and a little sleet for just about everyone, starting this afternoon.

Areas outside the broader valleys in Vermont are most likely to get the ice.  Accordingly, a winter weather advisory is up for everybody in the Green Mountain State except those in the Champlain Valley, western Rutland County and the lower Connecticut River Valley.

Ice accumulations won't be extreme, so we're not looking at a lot of tree or power line damage, but the roads will be lousy this afternoon and tonight.

In those warmer valleys, it will be mostly rain with a huge caveat.  It's January. The ground is cold. Even if temperatures are a little above freezing while it's raining, that rain will freeze on untreated surfaces. You know, driveways, back roads, parking lots and sidewalks. You'll still want to be cautious as this mess goes through today and overnight.

Here's an added bonus for this lousy weather for those of you who live along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Strong downslope winds will develop this afternoon and tonight, and there might be a few gusts over 40 mph or even above that in these spots.

Despite all the rain and freezing rain in the forecast, it won't be enough to cause any flooding. Some rivers might to up a little. But the rain won't come down nearly as hard as it did during the January 11 storm, and it won't be warm enough to rapidly melt snow. So we're OK there.

Now the usual caveat: As I said, temperatures will be close to 32 degrees during this. If it's only a degree or two colder or warmer in any one location than anticipated, it will be either much icier or just wetter. As they say, results may vary.

Late tonight or early tomorrow morning, the precipitation will turn lighter and more showery.  Colder air aloft will move in during the day Sunday, but it won't translate down to the surface much. That means mid and high elevations can expect a couple inches of snow during the day Sunday, but valleys will get just wet snowflakes maybe mixed with some rain drops.

Everyone will get into the snow showers Sunday night, but accumulations won't add up to all that much.

Most of the upcoming week looks like it will be mostly dry with seasonably cold temperatures.  It's looking like a fairly good bet that next weekend will bring another storm, but nobody has any idea yet what kind of storm it will be, or how strong it will get.

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: No Big Changes To Dangerous Forecast

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Don't let the record warm temperatures and bits of sunshine you experienced today in Vermont fool you, we are still in for a humdinger of a storm

Dangerous ice is still coming to the north of Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. And far northern New York  is really going to get nailed with awful ice.

Much of the rest of Vermont is still in for some flooding.

By late afternoon, pretty heavy rain had worked itself into northern Vermont and it was gradually working its way to the south and east. That is the beginning of the end of the warmth, and the start of the freezing rain episode in the north.

The freezing rain won't start right away, but it will come tonight.

Let's set us up with what happened this afternoon. There were quite a few record highs this afternoon in New England, including around Vermont. Here are some of the records:

Burlington, Vermont: 59, beating 56 set in 1980
Montpelier, Vermont: 59, beating 52 set in 2014
Plattsburgh, New York: 53, beating 51 in 2017
Boston: 70 degrees; second warmest January day on record
Hartford, Connecticut: 67 degrees, third warmest day on record.

WHAT'S NEXT

I took this photo of the huge "Triplet Trees" in my St. Albans
back yard amid record warmth this morning. I took this possibly
final photo of the trees in case they were end up damaged or
destroyed in tonight's ice storm. I have no way
of knowing how they wil come out Hoping for the best! 

I would say there were more record highs in the North Country today than I expected. That does NOT mean it will be a little warmer than expected overnight.  So the ice is still coming.

If anything, it could possibly mean precipitation will be a tad heavier than expected, as the contrasting air masses involved with this storm are even a little more extreme than some had forecasted.

The cold air is starting to bleed in. Massena, New York, which would be the first place south of the  border with Canada to see the cold front actually saw it come through a little after 2 p.m. this afternoon, and temperatures there have been slowly falling ever since.

The cold front just barely came through around my place in St. Albans, Vermont at 5 p.m. this evening, accompanied by heavy rain. I'm writing this right at 5 p.m., and the gusty south winds we've had all day in St. Albans just turned to the northwest a couple minutes ago. The downward slide in temperature has begun.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington expects the rain to change to freezing rain in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and the northern tip of that state around 8 or 9 p.m. tonight. The northern Champlain Valley should go to freezing rain at around 10 or 11 p.m. tonight, and points south and east of there should go to freezing rain around midnight to 1 a.m. Sunday.

Places south and east of a line from a little north of Rutland to a little north of St. Johnsbury should get little if any freezing rain, if current forecasts come out right.

The low-level cold air coming down from Ontario and Quebec is about as cold as forecasts had been all along, so the freezing rain and ice damage in the north is most certainly on for later tonight and Sunday.

Forecasts for ice accumulation haven't changed much since this morning. Far northern New York still looks to get a disastrous one inch or so of ice accumulation, which would cause massive tree and power line damage.

The northern Champlain Valley is still in line to get a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice, which will certainly also cause a lot of damage.  By the way, southern Quebec from Montreal south, and sections of Ontario are in line for a very destructive ice storm tonight, too.

There's a couple things going for us that will make a bad situation not as bad as it could be. One, instead of a long, drawn out few days of freezing rain, we'll get downpours overnight.  So much rain will come down that some of the water won't have time to freeze until it reaches the ground, or soaks in. That would cut down a little on how much ice accumulates.

There's also a chance the low level cold air could get a little thicker in altitude than forecast. If that happens, we'd get some sleet, which doesn't really accumulate on trees and power lines. That would be most likely in the far north. Pray for more sleet than expected, believe it or not. That would make things less bad than forecast. Don't count on it, though.

FLOODING

Flooding is obviously still a concern with this storm.  It's been raining pretty hard in northwestern Vermont since mid-afternoon and small streams have already become torrents, aided by snow melt in the record warm air earlier today.

Even in the ice zone, expect some flooding this evening. I notice the small streams around my area in Franklin County, Vermont are already flowing at pretty high and fast rates as of 5 p.m. Saturday.

Small stream and gully flooding will increase this evening and overnight across northern and central Vermont as the heavy rain continues.  That will translate to mainstem river flooding on Sunday. Most rivers in Vermont will at least crest at minor flood levels. Several rivers in northern and central Vermont are still expected to reach moderate flood state.  Flood watches remain in effect, obviously.

Temperatures will also stay quite warm in southern Vermont, maybe not dropping below the 55-60 range overnight.

I'll update tonight, maybe, if warranted, and try to do a comprehensive update Sunday morning. That is, if I have power. We'll see how that goes. If you don't hear from me tomorrow morning, I don't have power, and won't be able to post. I'll figure it out eventually if that happens.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Weird, Wild, Dangerous Storm Gets Under Way Today

 I love these three big trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I
definitely risk losing them to the oncoming ice storm, unfortunately. 

Up here where I live in Franklin County, Vermont, I'm already mourning the likely loss of some trees I love in my yard.

There's that damn ice storm coming, that's whh.

I already lost a beautiful willow tree to the storm back on November 1.  I have three enormous poplars in the back yard. They're just wonderful. But they don't hold up well in heavy ice accumulations.  So, maybe I'll lose those.

A row of cedar trees has grown up over the years on the south side of the property facing the road. They've helped turned the back yard into a private Eden. Cedars don't hold up in ice, either. So they're gone.  

That's why we can't have nice things, right?

Maybe I'm overstating this. I hope I am. Maybe the trees will be saggy under the ice for a couple days then everything will be fine. I just don't like the risk. I love my trees almost as much as I love my precious two dogs.

Regarding the ic, forecasts have been pretty consistent for days now as to what will happen with this storm. It's still looking like the northern border counties of Vermont and New York will get a ton of ice. Slightly further south, there's a flood risk.

I'll get into the specifics in a minute, but first let's set this storm up.  It is a weird one.

First of all, conditions are very ripe in the South for severe weather because winds veering with height south and east of the storm center. Ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms with this system, supercells could easily develop. They have the potential to bring strong, long lasting tornadoes to parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma and parts of Lousiana and Arkansas. Huge hailstones might fall with these, too.

A squall line of severe thunderstorms will also form and zoom eastward today, tonight and tomorrow through the Gulf Coast states.

A low-level jet, which is a current of fast-moving air a couple to a few thousand feet over the Earth's surface, will be going over this region. The low level jet is a product of this strong storm system and is unusually strong, as it's expected to reach speeds of up to 100 mph.

It's so strong people in the Gulf Coast states will probably be able to hear it roaring overhead.

This squall line will be able to grab chunks of this high speed air from a few thousand feet overhead and bring it to the surface. That means there's going to be a lot of wind damage with this. There will probably be widespread gusts of 75 mph or more with some of these storms.

Worse, the air will still be veering with height, so there probably will be some embedded tornadoes with this dangerous squall line.

Luckily, we in New England don't have to worry about this aspect of the storm, although there is a chance of gusty thunderstorms in southern New England Sunday.

The forecasts have been steady as she goes as the storm lifts northeastward later tonight, Saturday and into Sunday. Along the storm path, a broad band of heavy rain has prompted a widespread area of flood watches extending from northeastern Texas, through the Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes and on into central Vermont.

North and west of that line, it appears there will be a nearly equally broad band of damaging freezing rain. It'll extend from Oklahoma and Missouri, up through Illinois, into the Great Lakes and on into Ontario and southern Quebec, and northern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Expected ice amounts in northern areas. I expect there to be somewhat
thicker ice than this. You start to see some damage at a quarter
inch thick. At a half inch, damage starts to get more substantial.

Of course you've noticed by now I've mentioned flood watches and a risk of damaging ice in Vermont in this post.

One thing that gives me confidence this forecast is fairly accurate is the computer models, and the forecasts, have been pretty consistent for days.

As always, the devil is in the details.  

The details are a forecasting nightmare.  The temperature gradient across Vermont Saturday night will be extreme.

 I have a feeling that somewhere in western Vermont, there will be a 30-mile or less zone where the temperature goes from the mid 50s to around 32 degrees south to north. As you can imagine, that makes it basically impossible to tell who gets what and when.

The broad brush expectation from the National Weather Service in South Burlington will have to do, then.

The (very reasonable) way they see things developing is this:

It's windy today, especially in the Champlain Valley, as you've surely noticed. That'll keep temperatures rising through the 30s and 40s during the day today and tonight.  There might be a little rain around, but not much.

In southern areas of Vermont especially, temperatures will keep rising into the 50s to possibly near 60  as we get into Saturday.

Meanwhile, as the real rain begins in earnest, that low level cold front will slip down from Canada into northern Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.

How far south the cold front gets, and whether it wobbles north at times during the storm, will determine how much ice will accumulate.  Remember, it will stay quite warm a few thousand feet overhead. So we won't get any snow, except maybe at the very tail end of the storm.

Instead, rain will fall into that thin layer of subfreezing air near the surface and freeze on contact.

Generally speaking, you start to see scattered power outages and tree damage when ice gets to be about a quarter inch thick.  At half an inch, the damage gets pretty extensive. At three quarters to an inch thick, there's widespread, serious tree damage and also widespread, long-lasting power failures.

Early thoughts are Burlington's ice accumulation will be around a quarter of an inch. Bad, but not the end of the world.

But when you get to the northern border counties, we're talking a half inch of ice or more, which is definitely serious. There could be ice at least an inch thick in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  That area is really in trouble.

Of course, if the freezing rain begins earlier than expected and lasts longer than we think now, everything would be even worse. Stay tuned.  For now, there's a winter storm watch for this scenario in the northern border counties.

Here are some tips for those of you in the expected ice zone:

--- Charge up your devices before the storm.  The power outages might last a long time.

--- Get battery operated candles and lights ready, too. Make sure in advance you have plenty of extra batteries.

---- Fill up the car with gas, too. If the power is out, the gas stations can't pump gas. Don't park under trees, as branches or the whole thing might come down. If you park outside, consider covering your vehicle with a tarp. It'll be easier to get the ice off when this storm is over.

----  Get some cash, too.  If you need to buy anything, especially in an emergency, stores with no power won't be able to process your credit or debit card

---- If you're going to use an electric generator, for gawd's sake make sure no fumes get in the house and everything exhausts outside. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

-----This being Captain Obvious, but stay away from downed power lines and out from under trees.  You never know when a branch will snap off.

At this point,  it's still seeming like precipitation will be mostly plain rain from very roughly Route 2 south, although there might be periods and pockets of freezing rain, too.

There's an inch or two of rain or melted ice coming with this storm, plus the squirt of warm air will melt what snow we have out there. So, there's a floo warning from immediately south of winter storm warning zone near the border down to Rutland and Windsor counties.

Precipitation will be somewhat lighter in far southern Vermont, which means so far, there's no flood alerts there.

The rain, and freezing rain and whatever else will end Sunday afternoon, but the ice will stay on everything in the north. Gusty winds will cause additional power outages and tree damage. Ugh.

I don't know about you, but I am NOT looking forward to this storm.

Weekend Storm Still Looking Dangerous For Vermont, Many Other Parts Of Nation

Will northern Vermont get a nasty, but manageable amount of ice like
this over the upcoming weekend or will it be worse?
Nobody is certain yet, stay tuned! 

It looks like I'll want to do daily updates on the approaching potentially dangerous storm this weekend here in Vermont. At least until it hits.

The expected vast, serious storm continues to put Vermont at risk for flooding and potentially damaging ice.

The storm is a forecasting nightmare and will continue to be even when it is in progress Saturday and Sunday, so expect surprises.  Not all of the surprises will be pleasant, for sure.  

At this point, if forecasts go amazingly close to accurate, some flooding is a good possibility across a good chunk of Vermont, given the rather heavy rain and snow melt that will come with the storm.

The highest potential for damaging freezing rain and ice accumulations are in the northern and maybe central Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. Sections of northern New York and southern Quebec are also under the gun with this scenario.

The first piece of this storm will rocket from around Kansas to the Great Lakes today and tonight, driving a warm front through Vermont.

After today's chilly weather, you'll notice temperatures going up overnight tonight. In the Champlain Valley, you'll really notice the wind pick up, with gusts to at least 45 mph in spots later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile the main storm will start to gather around Texas. That's why there's a severe weather outbreak scheduled for Friday and Saturday in the Deep South.

The storm is transporting huge amounts of moisture and heat northward in the eastern third of the nation, which will produce that heavy rain in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, and the record warmth along the East Coast.

A band of freezing rain and sleet will travel along the northern and western periphery of the storm.  That's where Vermont's troubles come into play.

Cold high pressure is stll expected to establish itself in Ontario and Quebec. That would push a cold front down into northern New England, including northern Vermont.

What comes from the sky, then, during the storm will depend upon where this weather front gets stuck, or wavers back and forth. If forecasters are off on its position by as little as 10 or 20 miles, then the weather forecast for the storm will be wrong.

The reality check is, forecasts are almost alway off by a dozen or two doze  miles with the location and speed of a cold or warm front no matter what the situation.  Usually this margin of error has little effect on weather forecasts and the predictions end up being accurate.

I doubt it this time. That's because, first of all, the temperature contrast across the front will be tremendous.  I can see a scenario in which its 30 degrees in St. Albans and 60 degrees in Rutland during parts of the storm.

On top of that, this is shallow, low level cold air coming in from the north. Temperatures aloft will remain very balmy.  It's possible in northern Vermont we could get temperatures in the upper 40s on the summits of the Green Mountains while freezing rain coats trees and power lines in the valleys.

If current forecasts are to be believed, the cold air would begin bleeding into the Champlain Valley, some spots in the Northeast Kingdom and northern New York Saturday afternoon or evening.

We don't know how far south the front will get, and whether it will lift back across the International Border during the height of the storm.

If the front stays draped across southern or central Vermont, the northern Champlain Valley and other northern locations could easily see the worst ice storm since the epic one in 1998.  Although, looking at the bright side, there seems to be no way this one would be as bad as 1998.

I have seen in some of these situations that the cold air from Quebec can bleed south along valley floors as far south as Rutland, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

On the other hand, if southerly winds win out, the temperature would stay or go back above freezing Saturday night all the way to the Canadian border. That would be nice in that we'll escape the worst of the damaging ice.

By the same token, that warm air north would put all of Vermont in play for the risk of flooding. Heavy rain mixed with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 melts snow pretty quickly too.

The heaviest rain or ice or even possibly sleet or snow in the far north would come down Saturday night and early Sunday morning. It would taper off pretty quickly on Sunday afternoon as the storm heads away from us.

Stay tuned on this one.  It's certainly shaping up to be the first really nasty storm of 2020.

Still Watching Dangerous Weekend Storm In Eastern U.S.

Forecast national map for Saturday. Note the very
strong high pressure off the East Coast pumping in
lots of very warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Storm shown
centered over Arksans will produce severe storms
and tornadoes south and east of it and ice to its northwest.
The storm moves into our area Saturday and especially
Sunday, with a risk of heavy ice or rain, and
possibly snow. 

Ingredients continue to come together for a dangerous storm in much of the eastern United States Friday through Sunday.

While forecasts will undoubtedly change somewhat as more updated data comes in, here's a quick broad brush of what the nation should expect, followed by effects here in Vermont.

Friday:  A line of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes develops in eastern Oklahoma and Texas and moves into Arkansas and Louisiana. Strong, damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes along this line.

Ahead of the squall line, a few supercells with possible tornadoes, might well develop, with the risk of a very big, strong tornado or two.

Heavy rain will develop in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys later in the day. There will be a freezing rain risk from about Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.

Saturday: The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will shift to the central Gulf Coast and lower Tennessee valley. Overall this two-day severe outbreak might resemble one of the stronger outbreaks more common in the spring and early summer.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and the threat of flooding will develop from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and extend as far north as Michigan. There's a risk of a good amount of freezing rain in a broad band from Kansas, through Missouri, into northern Ilinois, Michigan and into Ontario.

Near record warmth will affect the East Coast.

Sunday: The heavy rain shifts to eastward a bit and then diminishes, except north. . Heavy precipitation moves into northern New York and northern New England, and southern Ontario and Quebec. These areas will turn colder and there is a risk of heavy icing in some of these areas. Another day of record warmth is likely along the immediate East Coast.

Lets look at the next few days in Vermont:

Today: Snow showers with a cold front. Sharply falling temperatures this afternoon with the snow showers could cause a flash freeze on roads.

Thursday: Quiet and cold.  Lows a few degrees either side of zero, highs in the teens. At night, south winds start blowing, becoming strong in the Champlain Valley.

Friday: Windy and warm, with patchy light rain. A little ice possible east of the Greens in the morning.

Saturday: Now we're getting into the meat of the storm.  It'll be warm, unless the cold front comes in sooner than forecast. A few record highs possible. Rain is likely, especially north.  Turning sharply colder, especially north and west Saturday night with possible mixed precipitation.

Sunday: A wild card, with a complex thermal profile and questions about the position of cold air. There's a risk of significant, damaging icing, especially north. If it's a little warmer than expected, rain could be heavy enough to produce flooding. If it's a little colder than now expected, more snow would work into northern areas.

Overall, it looks like one to two inches of rain and/or melted snow and ice will come down northern Vermont Sunday. That's a lot for January. Somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation will probably hit southern Vermont.

The bottom line is, we don't know exactly what will be falling from the sky Sunday, but I'd consider postponing travel. And pay attention to those iee forecasts. If we got a lot of ice, we could lose quite a few trees and power lines.  If the forecasts for ice become more certain, stock up on supplies during the warmer weather Saturday morning and afternoon.